Conclusions May 10:
"Dial, Dragon" commanded Armsmaster as he entered his lab.
"Colin?" dialing tone played only once before Dragon responded.
"I'm sorry." immediately replied Armsmaster "Looks like your theory is far closer to truth than I ..." Armsmaster paused, searching for words "Than I wanted to admit. Sorry."
"Don't worry about it Colin. I understand and don't hold any grudges." Dragons avatar's smiled at him a bit sadly "Any parent or guardian in your place would have behaved similarly."
"But it doesn't make it right." Armsmaster came closer to the screen and removed his helmet "I yelled at you, Dragon. Despite knowing that you are better than me in social interactions. Despite knowing that there is a chance that you are right." Armsmaster said while looking at camera "And that's why I'm sorry."
"Just learn from it and do better next time. And I think we still have urgent matters to attend to, don't we?"
"Just..." Armsmaster paused, again not sure what to say. "You are right, I will have to do better. And we do have work." He turned on a projector "Let's update the board. Vista woke up." Armsmaster started to brief Drangon in short sentences, more for the benefit of logging system, than Dragon's. "I will question her soon. But so far points of interest are: She doesn't seem to have powers, pending confirmation. She is oddly at ease about current situation. Genuinely confused. A bit resigned. Significantly disoriented."
As Armsmaster spoke projected board that was already full of various boxes was filling in with more boxes and lines. Some of those lines immediately turned red, some rare red lines turned blue.
"This does conflict with some of our conclusions." commented Dragon "Also, I got some info as well" one by one half a dozen more boxes appeared "There are a lot of documents, do you need a summary?"
"Yes, but your documents don't affect some of the versions, so let's review those first." Armsmaster switched the view and boxes reordered into 4 distinct trees, the leftmost one highlighted in blue. "First version: Team Mana attacking Vista" he started "Knife and blood lose being a ruse to misguided us. Recent data drops the overall probability from 23 to 4%. In other words, it is even less likely."
"I must highlight again, that this just doesn't make sense." Commented Dragon "Mana's members aren't stupid, they had much better options than attacking ward in the middle of PRT facility. Why leave a fake proof and a ward that will immediately invalidate said proof? It would have had to be a statement in any other situation, a war declaration from any other gang, but taking their other actions into account it simply doesn't add up."
"And with Vista's current behavior it makes even less sense." agreed Armsmaster "She would have remembered being attacked and reported attack after waking up. In the very least she would have questioned why she has no powers or had some other negative reaction. Anger, panic, fear, resignation... She in the very least should have been bothered about losing powers." Armsmaster put video of Vista onto one of his screen "Not this."
"I agree. For the moment we can rule out Team Mana attacking ward unprovoked."
"Next. Third party attacking Vista. Mana intervening." Armsmaster fiddled with controls and projection highlighted second tree, some boxes rearranged themselves. Probability indicated a fall from 60% to 43%. "Still quite high."
"Except we are stumped here." Dragon enlarged boxes marked with red. 'Culprit?', 'Location?' printed over the boxes "Because either attack happened in PRT facility or Vista was attacked before entering PRT and managed to conceal a serious wound. Neither seem likely" Dragon concluded.
"And while such situation does warrant intervention from Team Mana, Vista's reaction doesn't fit." Armsmaster sighted and continued "Next is your suggestion: Team mana collaborating with Vista to depower Vista. Chances rose from 48 to 81%."
"Check out validity of report about Vista visiting Heberts, I caught one of Vista's distortion on camera." the feed from Dragon switched to mentioned video and then back to avatar "And Mr Hebert queried child services after that day, it triggered our programs since request covered Missy Biron." Dragon enlarged the 'Vista visiting Heberts' box and adjusted validity "As such we can consider visit as a fact."
"In other words, Vista either tried to contact Team Mana and succeeded or caught their attention this way."
"Do you think Heberts might be part of Team mana?" Dragon questioned.
"That's still unlikely. If they were, I don't think Mr Hebert would have checked records directly." Disagreed Armsmaster "And it always returns to the point of Insect control being active while Miss Hebert was unconscious, mortally wounded, haven't displayed her unnatural coordination yet. Also Miss Hebert with high certainty wasn't parahuman before the locker incident. It is a fact that Mr Hebert was completely unaware. We can't deny that someone should have made the necklace, someone past initial tinker's steps, who was sufficiently good that locker wouldn't have happened at all."
"I'm not so sure. Even if there are lots of logical conflicts in our theories" pressed Dragon "AI could have been controlling those insect, unlikely but possible. And other irregularities could have other explanations. Still there are a lot of holes in any theories we have..." Dragon's avatar displayed a thinking expression "But I do agree that Miss Hebert is unlikely to join someone who depowered her without her approval at best."
"We will have to update that board later either way, lets focus on Vista for now. I see couple new boxes marked 'Youth guard'. Is that the documents you mentioned? They affected probability a fair bit."
"Yes, however please check how they affected the last theory."
"Suicide? Despite what forensics think we both agre.." Armsmaster stopped mid sentence as soon as fourth tree was updated, the value indicated that it quadrupled to 93% probability. "What did you found?" he questioned with a sinking feeling in his gut.
"Do you remember those forms you sent to Youth Guard about Vista's potential family issues?" Dragon asked and after receiving a nod continued "They were never investigated, at least not in a manner I can track. I found over hundred complaints to school, to social services and Youth Guard, none seem to be acted upon."
"But..." Armsmaster was at loss for words "How?"
"It all leads to Youth Guard." Dragon explained while moving relevant documents to screen "I sent copies of what I found to your terminal. Paper version are waiting for you in PRT's legal office. The common point: Youth Guard seems to either ignore reports or redirect them to themselves and then ignore. Youth Guard effectively blocked social services. School reports directly to Youth Guard in such cases." With each word from Dragon, Colin's expression darkened "Colin, I think that Vista was more desperate that either of us thought possible. Cornered even. So she tried to contact Team Mana. Best case: She contacted them, but got rejected, so Vista decided to force Team Mana's hand, consequences be damned. At least I don't think Vista would have agreed to stage suicide just because of spite. Worst case: actual suicide attempt with a second trigger, trigger that Team Mana noticed."
"I see... I need to... I need to question Vista" Armsmaster started to go towards the door, clearly shaken.
"Just be gentle." Dragon advised "My conclusions might be wrong, but she doesn't need more stress regardless."