Hogwarts Sect of Witchcraft and Wizardry

[FriedIce]

Alright so the question in regards to potions is if getting to apprentice in it is more useful than getting Charms to apprentice. The answer is a hard no imo. The reason being the turn around for getting benefits from them are like 3 months per potion.

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Firstly, getting Potions to Apprentice is way easier than getting Charms there because of the bonus this turn. On an ordinary training turn we average around 7 successes, this bonus gets us to 10-12 successes this turn. So you're not comparing like with like. We also reroll 1s on Potions so it's probably even higher than that.

Secondly, at a base mechanical level Potions gets Physical Cultivation to a DC of 11 which gives us ~11 successes a turn on our last remaining major task. Charms, by comparison just increases our dice to a d24 which gives us ~9 successes a turn.

In conclusion Charms is both harder to learn than Potions and gives us less value.

EDIT: I will say that without the bonus this turn, I think Charms is probably a better investment because the roll bonuses apply to everything but rolling with Advantage is just too powerful a bonus to pass up. And we'll want some Potions for the Universal Solvent eventually too.

I'll go for this. Getting Transfiguration to Apprentice will still help a lot with all our actions.
Depending on what we get for our random points it sets us up next turn to get Basic Herbology and Potions with 1 action each, which could then lead to punching straight through to Peak Physical the turn after.

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If you want Peak Physical ASAP then Potions this turn what we need. The opportunity of rolling with advantage for all our training rolls this turn is huge.

 

[BearWolfBoar]

[X] Plan: Artiste
-[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
-[X][Training] Potions (x4)
-[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
--[X] 3 points

[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer
--[X] Promethean technique

Why do we only have one social this turn? The only reason I could think of was the home choice we made because it says it will take two social actions, but it says it will do that when we take our next two go home options and only if we lose a fight too ourselves.

 

[CedeTheBees]

Why do we only have one social this turn? The only reason I could think of was the home choice we made because it says it will take two social actions, but it says it will do that when we take our next two go home options and only if we lose a fight too ourselves. Can someone explain?

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Quidditch locks in two actions.

-[X][Social] Your team is assembled for training against the Slytherins.

-[X][Social] Near the end of the month, the pitch once again awaits you, and you're anxious to return and prove that once wasn't a fluke.

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Edit:
[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
--[X] Wisp-mother technique
[X] Plan: Artiste

The math convinced me to go back to this.

While narratively, I'd prefer charms, I do wanna make Physical Cultivation as efficient as possible.

More actions = Good shit

 

[sevgre]

[X] Plan: Artiste
-[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
-[X][Training] Potions (x4)
-[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
--[X] 3 points

[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
--[X] Light-eater technique

 

[CedeTheBees]

Rei-A might think the Humble Light Bringer Law is all about visible light, so her completed version focuses on creating orbs of magical light in all shapes, sizes and colorations, from soft reading light to effectively flashbangs. Rei-B might focus on the creation process itself, producing flames or sparks for any manner of applications. Rei-C meanwhile sees it as a way to manipulate sight, her devious mind bringing the law from its humble origins to the realm of illusions and transparency instead.

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Not to sound needy but I do hope we get a little sneak peek like this for all the tech trees (when we get to them). No way I'd have guessed 'illusions' from Light-eater otherwise. I honestly thought that was where Wisp-mother was gonna lead to.

 

[Epic Bygones]

For some reason the tally didn't register my last vote for the technique:

[X][Transfiguration] Separating Void Paradigm Law

Edit - Ah, I see, it only counts the vote of my last post.

[X] Plan: Artiste

[X] Plan Potions

I think this plan vote is for January, which means we could get the extra action by the beginning of April.

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Pretty sure it's for February.
September was the Gallery. October was the Troll. November was the Puff Game. December was Christmas. January was Home.

 

[Edkose]

Hmm let's see the different tracks

Spoiler: Math is evil and difficult

February
Transfigurationx4 for sure gets it into Apprentice. We only need 380 points and the avg is 560 (7 X (50+30)
4x 40 points in random subjects.

March
Charm x4 avg points 700. If we're lucky we get more than 40 points in charms on February and thus get that to apprentice level as well.

April
Avg points, assuming apprentice charm and transfig, is approximate 1000. We need 688 to complete physical cultivation and 171 to complete spiritual). So we could try 3x physical and 1x spiritual.

May.
Avg points, assuming extra action in training and 7 die pool, is 1450. At that point we have 3 subjects left. So two in two of them should put them very close to the final milestone. Makes sense to take herbology and astronomy to leverage the herbology for Potions.

June
Finish of herbology and astronomy with one action each. Or we might be lucky and they are both done, due to the extra 40 points. Who knows! Anyway the avg points for Potions at that stage would be approx 750 with two actions.

So that's everything more than accomplished assuming avg rolls.

February
4x Potion assuming that we get Apprentice here due to the boon.

March
4x physical to leverage the Potion gain. Avg points should be approx. 240 per action. 4 actions means we overshoot by 40 points on avg, which isn't much.

April
Avg points assuming 5 training actions
600 points. We need 380 for Transfig so I'm gonna go ahead and assume that do it in three and get spiritual cultivation done in two

May
Avg points 875. Enough to finish charm in 5 actions, overshooting a bit to ensure completion.

June
Avg points 1400 enough to complete astronomy/herbology and progress far on the other.

We're gonna manage anyway. Assumptions were done on both paths, and maybe some subjects could be switched for better results. Maybe some assumptions favoured the other more or maybe I just got tired in the end but I felt like transfig is slightly better in the long run.

[X] Plan: Transformative Art

[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer
--[X] Promethean technique

Why do we only have one social this turn? The only reason I could think of was the home choice we made because it says it will take two social actions, but it says it will do that when we take our next two go home options and only if we lose a fight too ourselves.

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It's because of Quidditch practice.

 

[organicAI]

[X] Plan: Artiste
-[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
-[X][Training] Potions (x4)
-[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
--[X] 3 points
-[][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law

Levitation is just a really useful skill all round.

Edit:
[X][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law

 

[CedeTheBees]

-[X][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law

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Make sure to take the dash out of that technique btw. The transfiguration vote is outside of the plans.

 

[Epic Bygones]

The more I think about it, the more I consider the Transfiguration boon, effectively, a trap option, because it doesn't really do much of anything.
-it doesn't affect future odds, because it's extremely unlikely to provide a milestone.
-it doesn't give other benefits, because no ritual, charm or what-have-you is gained.
-it doesn't affect future plans, because 50 points (or even 100) don't actually allow you to, say, use 1 action instead of 2, or something.

If you wanted to train Transfiguration this turn, you'd be better off voting for Trasfiguration x4 but with the CoMC boon, so you'd get a basically guaranteed milestone in it.

But the Potions plan is better.

 

[Karnax626]

-it doesn't affect future plans, because 50 points (or even 100) don't actually allow you to, say, use 1 action instead of 2, or something.

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By definition, yes it does? Even if it doesn't give us a milestone this turn, it still means we need less actions to hit milestones in the future. And getting Transfiguration to Apprentice does mean another +20 to all rolls, in contrast to Potions just increasing the range of successes for Defence.
An average of 280 free points is nothing to sniff at.

 

[omnihelion]

[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer
--[X] Promethean technique

[X] Plan: Transformative Art
-[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
-[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
-[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
--[X] 3 points

 

[Hex123]

[X] Plan: Artiste
[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
--[X] Light-eater technique

 

[Epic Bygones]

By definition, yes it does? Even if it doesn't give us a milestone this turn, it still means we need less actions to hit milestones in the future. And getting Transfiguration to Apprentice does mean another +20 to all rolls, in contrast to Potions just increasing the range of successes for Defence.
An average of 280 free points is nothing to sniff at.

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I was talking about the boon, so its bonus points to random subjects, not Transfiguration. That's why I said that if you wanted to train Transfiguration, you'd be better off with the CoMC boon, because the Transfiguration boon, does not, in fact, affect Transfiguration itself.

And no, it doesn't actually affect the odds, or if it does, it's in the slightest way that will not be significant, realistically speaking. Let's say that, through this boon, we get 40 points in Charms. How many actions will you need to take that to Apprentice? Do 40 points actually make you say "It's 4 actions rather than 5" (or whatever numbers you want to use for whatever milestone)? It doesn't.

 

[KreenWarrior]

[X][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law

 

[Edkose]

And no, it doesn't actually affect the odds, or if it does, it's in the slightest way that will not be significant, realistically speaking. Let's say that, through this boon, we get 40 points in Charms. How many actions will you need to take that to Apprentice? Do 40 points actually make you say "It's 4 actions rather than 5" or whatever? It doesn't.

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It does though. 4 training actions are on average 700 points if we get the +50 bonus from Transfiguration. We'd then be lacking 50 points to get to Charm apprentice, so yeah 40 points can actually make the difference.

 

[Epic Bygones]

Of course they can, but they effectively don't, because averages are not reality, unless (and only kind of) we deal with incredibly high numbers. I'm not good with math terms in English, but I hope you get what I mean.

 

[Karnax626]

I was talking about the boon, so its bonus points to random subjects, not Transfiguration. That's why I said that if you wanted to train Transfiguration, you'd be better off with the CoMC boon, because the Transfiguration boon, does not, in fact, affect Transfiguration itself.

And no, it doesn't actually affect the odds, or if it does, it's in the slightest way that will not be significant, realistically speaking. Let's say that, through this boon, we get 40 points in Charms. How many actions will you need to take that to Apprentice? Do 40 points actually make you say "It's 4 actions rather than 5" (or whatever numbers you want to use for whatever milestone)? It doesn't.

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True, the Transfiguration actions are somewhat irrelevant to the point.
But my main point still stands that milestones aren't the be all end all of progress. Averages aren't reality, yes, but our action count isn't infinite so they are a good judge of how many actions we should put into a subject to reach our goal. And in that respect, the points we get from the Transfig boon can help, as it shifts the odds that much more in our favour.

The start of the year should showcase how much a few points can mean, when we were only 30-odd points off of Early Spiritual.

 

[Epic Bygones]

Of course, even when we are on the threshold to becoming Nascent Souls, if we are at 999960/1000000, so 40 points shy of it, 40 points end up mattering, but it's by chance, not because 40 points themselves actually matter, if you get what I mean.

And they already are basically nothing, at the end of the day, and they will naturally get less and less important as we improve. We shouldn't let them dictate our plans, because they are virtually irrelevant, is my opinion.

 

[Epic Bygones]

Hmm let's see the different tracks

Spoiler: Math is evil and difficult

February
Transfigurationx4 for sure gets it into Apprentice. We only need 380 points and the avg is 560 (7 X (50+30)
4x 40 points in random subjects.

March
Charm x4 avg points 700. If we're lucky we get more than 40 points in charms on February and thus get that to apprentice level as well.

April
Avg points, assuming apprentice charm and transfig, is approximate 1000. We need 688 to complete physical cultivation and 171 to complete spiritual). So we could try 3x physical and 1x spiritual.

May.
Avg points, assuming extra action in training and 7 die pool, is 1450. At that point we have 3 subjects left. So two in two of them should put them very close to the final milestone. Makes sense to take herbology and astronomy to leverage the herbology for Potions.

June
Finish of herbology and astronomy with one action each. Or we might be lucky and they are both done, due to the extra 40 points. Who knows! Anyway the avg points for Potions at that stage would be approx 750 with two actions.

So that's everything more than accomplished assuming avg rolls.

February
4x Potion assuming that we get Apprentice here due to the boon.

March
4x physical to leverage the Potion gain. Avg points should be approx. 240 per action. 4 actions means we overshoot by 40 points on avg, which isn't much.

April
Avg points assuming 5 training actions
600 points. We need 380 for Transfig so I'm gonna go ahead and assume that do it in three and get spiritual cultivation done in two

May
Avg points 875. Enough to finish charm in 5 actions, overshooting a bit to ensure completion.

June
Avg points 1400 enough to complete astronomy/herbology and progress far on the other.

We're gonna manage anyway. Assumptions were done on both paths, and maybe some subjects could be switched for better results. Maybe some assumptions favoured the other more or maybe I just got tired in the end but I felt like transfig is slightly better in the long run.

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Ignoring the assumptions which we might agree or disagree on, in the Potions track, month of March (so next turn), you have it so that we get an average of 940 points and say that it only gives us a 40 points cushion to get our Physical cultivation goal, but in reality we only need 688 to max it (you get that right in the Transfiguration track). This makes it not at all risky, unlike that same month in the Transfiguration track where we'd get Charms to completion only if we got 40 points in it this turn, so no cushion at all. Shouldn't that change your opinion?

 

[Karnax626]

Of course, even when we are on the threshold to becoming Nascent Souls, if we are at 999960/1000000, so 40 points shy of it, 40 points end up mattering, but it's by chance, not because 40 points themselves actually matter, if you get what I mean.

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Of course it's by chance, but that doesn't mean they don't matter.
I'm aware you can't guarantee the 40 points will have an explicit effect, but that doesn't mean they don't matter.
The important thing is that they stack the odds in our favour, further than would've happened if we didn't take it, and in my (and everyone else who voted for the Transfiguration plan), it stacks the odds in our favour harder than the Potions plan.

Not to say I'd be disappointed if the Potion plan won, it'd be neat to see our bottomless bag and characterisation vote option from the beginning of the quest come into effect, but we're not saying the bonus points will definitely affect the final outcome. That's like saying rolling Potions with advantage might result in the same number of successes as rolling without, so it doesn't matter.
It might, and that's enough for us.

 

[Epic Bygones]

The important thing is that they stack the odds in our favour, further than would've happened if we didn't take it, and in my (and everyone else who voted for the Transfiguration plan), it stacks the odds in our favour harder than the Potions plan.

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But they don't, and that's not a matter of opinion, but of numbers, and the numbers are in favor of the Potions plan.

And even beyond the numbers, the Potions plan also gives us the flexibility of an extra action a month/turn sooner.

 

[Karnax626]

But they don't, and that's not a matter of opinion, but of numbers, and the numbers are in favor of the Potions plan.

And even beyond the numbers, the Potions plan also give us the flexibility of an extra action a month/turn sooner.

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There's no reason we can't go for 4x Physical in March if we go with Transfiguration instead of Potions. It'd be slightly worse odds of getting Peak physical than if we'd gone with Potions depending on what level of Potions we got, but it'd be an option. Not to mention the extra progress from having a higher Transfiguration would go some way to making up for not having a 5th action if we didn't get it in March.

Secondly, I'm not sure on the math for the Potion Boon, but I'm leery of assuming we'll get straight to Apprentice with 4 actions (as @Edkose seems to?). I think if we just get Potions to Beginner level 2 we should get enough successes on the Physical month to make it, but it's not as guaranteed as your making it sound.

 

[Epic Bygones]

There's no reason we can't go for 4x Physical in March if we go with Transfiguration instead of Potions. It'd be slightly worse odds of getting Peak physical than if we'd gone with Potions depending on what level of Potions we got, but it'd be an option. Not to mention the extra progress from having a higher Transfiguration would go some way to making up for not having a 5th action if we didn't get it in March.

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Going for 4x Physical in March (688 points needed), with the Potions plan you'd get around 880 points (conservative average) while with the Transfiguration one you'd get 700. So easily vs barely/risky. (Edit - Just like, with the Transfiguration plan, if you don't go for Physical but for Charms instead, you get 700, missing the 750 mark)

Secondly, I'm not sure on the math for the Potion Boon, but I'm leery of assuming we'll get straight to Apprentice with 4 actions (as @Edkose seems to?).

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Accounting for the Potions boon and our Bag of Holding, we'd get around 880 points for the 750 needed.

 

[Edkose]

Secondly, I'm not sure on the math for the Potion Boon, but I'm leery of assuming we'll get straight to Apprentice with 4 actions (as @Edkose seems to?). I think if we just get Potions to Beginner level 2 we should get enough successes on the Physical month to make it, but it's not as guaranteed as your making it sound.

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No idea about the percentage of success of getting Potion straight to Apprentice, but
we'd need about 10 success from 4 of the best of 8 die pools. If the average is 7 it certainly seems possible...