Hogwarts Sect of Witchcraft and Wizardry

March
Charm x4 avg points 700. If we're lucky we get more than 40 points in charms on February and thus get that to apprentice level as well.

April
Avg points, assuming apprentice charm and transfig, is approximate 1000. We need 688 to complete physical cultivation and 171 to complete spiritual). So we could try 3x physical and 1x spiritual.
I was having a detailed look at your numbers and this is a big assumption you're basically gambling here that we get one bonus in charms and then outperform the average rolls, or that we get two bonuses in charms with average rolls in order to justify us being Apprentice Charms by April.

Edit: Massive kudos for actually running the numbers though for all the possibilities btw.

We're gonna manage anyway.
That said, I agree completely with this. We'll manage with either plan. It's just a case of what order we do stuff in.

Especially because both pathways aren't including any further bonuses we get from Sect Points or Quidditch, or anything we get in addition to the hard mechanical benefits from Charms/Potions (I.e. new Potions to use or Charms to use).

Edit: This sort of stuff is why Forge/Threads had a Discord Maths cabal where they did nothing but plot out training probabilities lol. Stats is hard (and I've forgotten a lot of the maths I used to know)
 
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@Karf Just to double check, but uh what else besides Charms counts for the examination? I mean we've sorta assumed that was just the requirement for getting 2 skills to apprentice rank, but uh felt it best to confirm that is the case as I can see possible caveats for some of them.
But they don't, and that's not a matter of opinion, but of numbers, and the numbers are in favor of the Potions plan.

And even beyond the numbers, the Potions plan also give us the flexibility of an extra action a month/turn sooner.
That assumes a couple things about breakthrough, and sorta ignores that the main benefit of potions is in fact the potions themselves. Like seriously unless resources gathering isn't a social action as implied in the previous update indicates where we can burn points to just avoid the fact that Rei has a Herbology score of "mistake frozen tree branch for resource in comedic succession", and just be stuck with the issue that Herbology appears to still influence the roll for making potions, which is a potential problem tbh.

Because the whole point imho of taking the potion boon is gamble that the snowballing effect Rei noted the point system to have does reflect in the game mechanics, and she can in reinvest the three* points earned from doing so back into getting the resources to make the potions. The reason it is a gamble is half the point is Rei can parallel process all three potions at once, and that benefits from having them will pay off enough before examination day, which I can very much see being the case if some of the options have resource constraints that can be bypassed by throwing points at them.

For the record I'm seriously contemplating Herbology next turn if the potions boon wins as I have zero intention of finding out if there is a failure condition for making potions.

*Look unless this being on the boon list is an indication that the Elders** are taking the gloves off in regards to what they're rewarding first year students I can't see anybody anybody beating Rei out on the overall*** points barring some absurd rolls.
**Specifically the House Heads as they're the ones playing games here.
***This isn't an inherently good thing as I can easily see Snape giving Rei a point, or three**** for exemplary insight into Potions as a... means of expressing his displeasure over his loss of Face from the Slytherin first years slacking off enough that somebody outside of his House earned the most points in Potions, and using the social humiliation to insure it doesn't happen again in future years.
****The three points if it happened would be part respect for talent enough to skip the basics in his field within a month, and part a desire to avoid any need to repeat himself publicly in regards to what those with connections are supposed to do among the Slytherin first years. Well not that the seniors of their house are going to led the first year students live down such a social flub anytime soon.
 
Just to double check, but uh what else besides Charms counts for the examination?
They're listed in the first chapter.
By the start of your second year of seven, you would need to reach the Qi Condensation stage of cultivation - the second stage, which makes a certain amount of sense. You're also expected to reach apprentice level in at least two of the five other subjects: herbology, potions, charms, transfiguration and astronomy.
 
@Karf Just to double check, but uh what else besides Charms counts for the examination? I mean we've sorta assumed that was just the requirement for getting 2 skills to apprentice rank, but uh felt it best to confirm that is the case as I can see possible caveats for some of them.
That assumes a couple things about breakthrough, and sorta ignores that the main benefit of potions is in fact the potions themselves. Like seriously unless resources gathering isn't a social action as implied in the previous update indicates where we can burn points to just avoid the fact that Rei has a Herbology score of "mistake frozen tree branch for resource in comedic succession", and just be stuck with the issue that Herbology appears to still influence the roll for making potions, which is a potential problem tbh.

Because the whole point imho of taking the potion boon is gamble that the snowballing effect Rei noted the point system to have does reflect in the game mechanics, and she can in reinvest the three* points earned from doing so back into getting the resources to make the potions. The reason it is a gamble is half the point is Rei can parallel process all three potions at once, and that benefits from having them will pay off enough before examination day, which I can very much see being the case if some of the options have resource constraints that can be bypassed by throwing points at them.

For the record I'm seriously contemplating Herbology next turn if the potions boon wins as I have zero intention of finding out if there is a failure condition for making potions.

*Look unless this being on the boon list is an indication that the Elders** are taking the gloves off in regards to what they're rewarding first year students I can't see anybody anybody beating Rei out on the overall*** points barring some absurd rolls.
**Specifically the House Heads as they're the ones playing games here.
***This isn't an inherently good thing as I can easily see Snape giving Rei a point, or three**** for exemplary insight into Potions as a... means of expressing his displeasure over his loss of Face from the Slytherin first years slacking off enough that somebody outside of his House earned the most points in Potions, and using the social humiliation to insure it doesn't happen again in future years.
****The three points if it happened would be part respect for talent enough to skip the basics in his field within a month, and part a desire to avoid any need to repeat himself publicly in regards to what those with connections are supposed to do among the Slytherin first years. Well not that the seniors of their house are going to led the first year students live down such a social flub anytime soon.
I'm gonna be honest, I'm having a bit of trouble parsing your post, sorry. I'm not sure what your point about sect points is, but for what concerns the learning of potions*, I believe that, just like training in Transfiguration and getting milestones in it automatically results in a vote to learn a technique, so will training in Potions. And the same goes for Astronomy and rituals, Herbology and ingredients, and Charms and- well, charms. Right, @Karf ?

Edit - *the learning and possession of potions. I imagine that the first 150 point milestone corresponds to being able to automatically whip up Alkahest (the special solvent), which justifies being able to always have the potion we learn with the next milestone of 200 points.
 
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That assumes a couple things about breakthrough, and sorta ignores that the main benefit of potions is in fact the potions themselves. Like seriously unless resources gathering isn't a social action as implied in the previous update indicates where we can burn points to just avoid the fact that Rei has a Herbology score of "mistake frozen tree branch for resource in comedic succession", and just be stuck with the issue that Herbology appears to still influence the roll for making potions, which is a potential problem tbh.
I'm pretty sure if Herbology was an explicit requirement to actually make Potions it'd have been stated somewhere.
I can definitely believe Herbology is synergistic with Potions even beyond the DC reduction, but I imagine it's more along the lines of 'can harvest and use better reagents than you could without it' than 'your reagent gathering capabilities are crippled without this skill, and requires you to put in extra actions to make up for the lack'.

For Sue Li it looks like her resource gathering is for her family, not her own use, which is probably why it costs her a social action.
 
I'm pretty sure if Herbology was an explicit requirement to actually make Potions it'd have been stated somewhere.
I can definitely believe Herbology is synergistic with Potions even beyond the DC reduction, but I imagine it's more along the lines of 'can harvest and use better reagents than you could without it' than 'your reagent gathering capabilities are crippled without this skill, and requires you to put in extra actions to make up for the lack'.

For Sue Li it looks like her resource gathering is for her family, not her own use, which is probably why it costs her a social action.
I agree. My guess is that there's basically three options for how you source Potions ingredients:
1) you don't and your skill remains purely theoretical
2) you spend Sect Points and outside resources to get ahold of key ingredients (our likely path)
3) you get good at Herbology and just get the ingredients yourself
 
Speaking of which, as always, after all the mechanical talk, let me take the time to show my appreciation for the story itself.

I liked the ice fishing scene, and the interaction with the Elder especially (quick message to our alter-ego: Rei, what you did barely counted as haggling! You should have used 1 point as a counter-offer, so the Elder could have raised it to 2 for a proper compromise!), but I really liked the scene with Su Li, which left me wanting more about the forest and ingredients gathering in general. It also left me a bit wary of this exchange:
"Call me Rei, and no. I was just curious about you - when you disappear for days at a time, can you really blame me? You're quite the riddle, you know."

Something about your words causes the other girl to smile lightly. "A riddle?"
Was this a hint at Riddle, as in Voldemort's real name? Is our dear Dark Lord/Demonic Cultivator hiding in Su's pants, rather than under Quirrel's turban? XD

Probably reading too much into it, but it's an amusing thought, and would make for a nice curve ball.

Either way, thanks for the update, @Karf !
 
You find Mandy out on the frozen lake, kneeling on the ice in front of a sawed in hole, wielding a fishing rod. Her face is serene, her hair done in elaborate hoops and curls, covered in tiny snowflakes.

"Hey!" you call out, "Want company?"

You can sense the Qi swirling around her as she meditates, running from the air into the lake and vice versa, and you make sure to temper your disappointment at there being no sign of her familiar.

"Sure. Glad to see you're back," she says.
This almost seems like there was a chance we wouldn't be coming back to Hogwarts, though more likely it was just small talk.
"Yeah? What kind, we could look together?"

"I... can't afford to compensate you for your efforts. Sorry."

"Compensate?" you ask, baffled, "No-no, everything we find is yours, I'm just tagging along."

There's still a doubting look in her eyes.
This seems like paranoia about why we'd be interested in chatting, likely because she's been sending money back for her family but maybe also because of Rei's burgeioning reputation? Either way it seems she relaxed by the end of it.
-[][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it
As much as it would've been better to take this turn (considering the immediate recency of the issue it tackles), @Karf would we be able to take this next turn instead?
Kinda tempted to do this, Lavender's social group and exploring with Lisa next turn.
 
Changing my vote

[X] Plan Potions
[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
--[X] Light-eater technique
 
Not to sound needy but I do hope we get a little sneak peek like this for all the tech trees (when we get to them). No way I'd have guessed 'illusions' from Light-eater otherwise. I honestly thought that was where Wisp-mother was gonna lead to.
Hmm... yeesss... The trees... the totally existing trees :)

On a more serious note, skip this paragraph if you don't want to know how the sausage is made. I always wanted to have the skills match the player character, so I couldn't generate a list above the first level beforehand. I look through the comments for feedback and ideas about what people might like, then try to sprinkle them in. The examples are just that - examples, not how it'll have to go. Imagine the Promethean option wins, you learn 'Incendio', but the next option might have a 'Flame Sculptor Technique' that lets you control your fires with nearly absolute precision, including color and shape. Alternatively, Wisp-mother could evolve into 'Rainbow Sculptor Technique' that lets you merge almost pixel-sized orbs into different colors and shapes. For completeness sake, Light-eater could (title pending) have a 'Shadow Sculptor Technique' that lets you paint and raise up shadows to accompish the same thing. I hope that doesn't feel too much like rail-roading, it's not meant to be, and as I said, the actual text doesn't currently exist yet, so the above examples are not canon.

@Karf Just to double check, but uh what else besides Charms counts for the examination? I mean we've sorta assumed that was just the requirement for getting 2 skills to apprentice rank, but uh felt it best to confirm that is the case as I can see possible caveats for some of them.
As has been pointed out already: herbology, potions, charms, transfiguration, astronomy. In my head, History and Defense are collectively Cultivation, while the rest are Skills. Runes, arithmancy, care of magical creatures and divination are electives, but mostly also skills.

As much as it would've been better to take this turn (considering the immediate recency of the issue it tackles), @Karf would we be able to take this next turn instead?
Absolutely! I'm 100% stealing that for an action next turn.

Edit - *the learning and possession of potions. I imagine that the first 150 point milestone corresponds to being able to automatically whip up Alkahest (the special solvent), which justifies being able to always have the potion we learn with the next milestone of 200 points.
This is correct. I do have some plans to differentiate the skills a little bit, but the core concept remains.
 
Oh dang! In that case, I much prefer Wisp-mother's aesthetic. I think I'll just vote that way for techniques from now on lol
 
[X] Plan: Follow up on the holiday

Have to ask why didn't we get that special bond for saving Hermione from the troll like what Harry and Ron did in canon?
Felt like she drop off the map as we recover in the hospital wing as Rei did save her and got her out.
 
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IMO, the transfiguration boon is great for the mid term, since it generates a lot of progress, even if none of it will lead to an immediate milestone, none of the progress is going to be in a subject we're ignoring, and thus save effective actions down the road.

Gives more slack in the next plans depending on how it rolls out, but thats a lot of potential progress there to be had.

Blasted gesture typing, one of these days I'll get around to turning it off.
 
Artiste and Light-eater in the lead so far
Adhoc vote count started by WhoTheHeckity on Dec 12, 2021 at 9:58 PM, finished with 94 posts and 24 votes.

  • [X] Plan: Artiste
    -[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
    -[X][Training] Potions (x4)
    -[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X] Plan: Transformative Art
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Light-eater technique
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer
    --[X] Promethean technique
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Wisp-mother technique
    [X][Transfiguration] Separating Void Paradigm Law
    [X] Plan Potions
    -[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
    -[X][Training] Potions (x4)
    -[X][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it, and ask the older muggleborns in Hogwarts for advice
    -[X][Social] Your team is assembled for training against the Slytherins.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law
    [X] Plan: Follow up on the holiday
    -[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Light-eater technique
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it
    --[X] 2 points
    [X] Plan Win Those Points, and Older Advise
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it, and ask the older muggleborns in Hogwarts for advise
    --[X] 2 points
    -[X][Social] Your team is assembled for training against the Slytherins.
    [X] I heard you liked Law
    -[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Promethean technique
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration x3
    -[X][Social] It's been a while since your last adventure with Lisa, and you're feeling the itch of wanderlust.
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    -[X] Light-eater technique
    [X] PLAN: Where the wild things are
    -[X][Boon] A plate of bright orange sushi rolls.
    -[X][Training] Care of Magical Creatures x4
    -[X][Social] You have visited the Forbidden Forest, and have seen the opportunities available to one daring to brave its depths. You shall make your own foray into the forest to seek your destiny.
    --[X] 4 points
    -[X][Training] Care of Magical Creatures x2
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration x2
    [X] Plan: Sometimes you just need to Social
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] You've never been in a choir before, but you're not about to let that stop you from going to the audition when you find Elder Flitwick in the common room, posting a notice on the board advertising the Hogwarts Choir.
    --[X] 3 points
 
IMO, the transfiguration boon is great for the mid term, since it generates a lot of progress, even if none of it will lead to an immediate milestone, none of the progress is going to be in a subject we're ignoring, and thus save effective actions down the road.

Gives more slack in the next plans depending on how it rolls out, but thats a lot of potential progress there to be had.
The Transfiguration plan actually gets less progress overall. It's 840 (Transfiguration) vs 880 (Potions) points, with the latter being even safer and with a higher potential, because rolling with advantage limits the risks of an unlucky turn (successes below average) and increases the odds of a lucky one (successes above average).

So, even discounting milestones which are clearly in favor of a Potions plan, if in your perspective more progress translates to more slack/saving of actions, then that's a point against the Transfiguration plan.
 
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All righty, every timezone should have had a chance to think things over. Many thanks to everyone who shared their thoughts and opinions; loving the maths discussions, even if I've given up on doing qualitative analysis and just run simulations or gut instincts.

Is a moratorium to clarify and make initial arguments something you guys would like? It wouldn't be any longer than two hours, tops.

And as usual, dice to follow, provided there are no ties.
Scheduled vote count started by Karf on Dec 12, 2021 at 2:40 AM, finished with 97 posts and 26 votes.
  • 29

    [X] Plan: Artiste
    -[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
    -[X][Training] Potions (x4)
    -[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X] Plan: Transformative Art
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] Given how often magical portraits seem to come up in your brief time at Hogwarts, perhaps you should learn more about them. A tiny part of your mind also whispers that it would be cool to bring your doodles to life.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Light-eater technique
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer
    --[X] Promethean technique
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Wisp-mother technique
    [X] Plan: Follow up on the holiday
    -[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Light-eater technique
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it
    --[X] 2 points
    [X][Transfiguration] Separating Void Paradigm Law
    [X] Plan Potions
    -[X][Boon] A jar of perpetually boiling fish soup.
    -[X][Training] Potions (x4)
    -[X][Social] Write in: You're still rattled from how much lesser the muggle world was. Check in on Hermione and the other muggleborns to see how they were coping with it, and ask the older muggleborns in Hogwarts for advice
    -[X][Social] Your team is assembled for training against the Slytherins.
    --[X] 3 points
    [X][Transfiguration] White Feather's Flight Law
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    -[X] Wisp-mother technique
    [X] I heard you liked Law
    -[X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    --[X] Promethean technique
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration x3
    -[X][Social] It's been a while since your last adventure with Lisa, and you're feeling the itch of wanderlust.
    [X][Transfiguration] Humble Light Bringer Law
    -[X] Light-eater technique
    [X] PLAN: Where the wild things are
    -[X][Boon] A plate of bright orange sushi rolls.
    -[X][Training] Care of Magical Creatures x4
    -[X][Social] You have visited the Forbidden Forest, and have seen the opportunities available to one daring to brave its depths. You shall make your own foray into the forest to seek your destiny.
    --[X] 4 points
    -[X][Training] Care of Magical Creatures x2
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration x2
    [X] Plan: Sometimes you just need to Social
    -[X][Boon] A bag of still steaming smoked fillets.
    -[X][Training] Transfiguration (x4)
    -[X][Social] You've never been in a choir before, but you're not about to let that stop you from going to the audition when you find Elder Flitwick in the common room, posting a notice on the board advertising the Hogwarts Choir.
    --[X] 3 points
Karf threw 8 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions Ia Total: 70
8 8 1 1 13 13 1 1 10 10 10 10 16 16 11 11
Karf threw 6 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions Ib Total: 68
11 11 14 14 11 11 13 13 5 5 14 14
Karf threw 7 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IIa Total: 52
16 16 9 9 3 3 1 1 8 8 9 9 6 6
Karf threw 6 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IIb Total: 68
6 6 20 20 9 9 8 8 16 16 9 9
Karf threw 6 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IIIa Total: 60
15 15 4 4 6 6 9 9 14 14 12 12
Karf threw 7 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IIIb Total: 72
16 16 18 18 1 1 9 9 2 2 19 19 7 7
Karf threw 6 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IVa Total: 69
11 11 14 14 18 18 11 11 11 11 4 4
Karf threw 6 20-faced dice. Reason: Potions IVb Total: 59
6 6 7 7 13 13 11 11 3 3 19 19
 
I'd go with a moratorium.

Also slightly below average number of success for the rolls. Still 9 is likely to be sufficient for what Rei needs this year.
 
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