[x] [Breakthrough] Qi is wonder
[x] [Charm]
-- [x] The rainbow brush
[x] [Mythical] Yes
[x] [Location] The Forbidden Forest
[x] [Charm]
-- [x] The rainbow brush
[x] [Mythical] Yes
[x] [Location] The Forbidden Forest
Hogwarts Sect of Witchcraft and Wizardry
- Thread starter Karf
- Start date
- Fantasy
- Location
- United Kingdom
I think you mixed up the months slightly. We're in June now, the summer months are July and August.
I think I'm with Zinay on this. Just do:
July - 3x Divination (92%), 2x CoMC w/ malus (this one is 72% without the individual charm/transfiguration boosts)
August - 3x Arithmancy (92%)
If it needs it put one of the free actions from August on CoMC to cap it, but otherwise I really don't want to risk not having enough social actions to spare if we end up failing both our combat rolls for the summer against ourselves (and thus lose 4 actions).
With this I see us as having 3 mandatory social actions: spending time with Dad, familiarising ourselves with Diagon Alley and how to access our mum's vault, and accepting Daphne's invitation to 'spar' and get the details on our mum.
And ideally I'd want more social actions to spend on things like keeping in touch with our friends, or doing the drawing social action with our Dad as the model so he has something to keep when we go back to Hogwarts in September.
I'm still not entirely sure what the difference is between these options. It's not the literal definition seeing as how unicorns and gryphons fall under 'No', and it's not pure incorporeal or corporeal considering trolls and gnomes come under 'Yes'.
It feels arbitrary enough that it might be better to just keep the narrowing down to location for this vote? And I say this as someone whose vote is winning.
What's the advantage of this? We lose the benefits of Runes in exchange for what? 4% better odds? A milestone in something we can easily get with 1 non-summer action in September? I don't see the appeal at all, personally. As for social actions:
That's only 5 social actions out of a minimum of 6 (also, I don't know how much the thread at large is gonna be behind them all, I've been very surprised before). There's no need to take some away from Electives' training. As for the combat encounter against ourselves, chances are good we'll get to vote for a strategy that improves the threshold, stacking the odds in our favor for us to win and negate the malus. There's less reason to worry than you think, I believe.
I'd differentiate them as magical beasts/animals (Mythical: No) vs. everything else (Mythical: Yes).
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- Location
- United Kingdom
The advantage is nearly entirely in the socials, and it has more leeway for bad luck.
It's very much not a minimum of 6, considering the potential to lose 2-4. And the idea that we can strategies our way to an advantage is is weird?
We're not literally fighting a clone of ourselves, it's an abstraction to represent Rei grappling with her own biases to try and treat the mortal world as normal.
And if the other electives are anything like CoMC the benefits of the milestones will be locked behind Foundation establishment, meaning the threshold reduction (and social boost for divination) is the main use we're going to get out of them, which for Runes will be a lot less useful than the other three.
Of course, but if the fighting is an abstraction, then so is the strategizing. We are not going to plan to take the high ground and shoot from cover, but rather, for example, to list all the reasons why being in the mortal world can be great and what changes to our attitude/views we can make to properly handle our issue.
Basically, if it's a combat encounter (it's explicitly called so in its description), then combat mechanics should apply, with pools and rolls, but also this:
I don't see why not, at least.
Are you saying we're not getting to meet a companion spirit, next update? I'm pretty sure we are. It might not come with the full package we'd get if we were at a higher Stage, but it's still going to matter, both in the story and in the system. Now, we don't know whether the other Electives are going to be the same, worse or better, but I feel like I can pretty much guarantee you that they'll offer more than just the reduction to other skills' thresholds. I don't know if @Karf can confirm this or not, but I think it's a much more reasonable assumption than its opposite.
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my reasoning for putting the 2x arithmancy and divination in June is that it allows us to save actions if the 59% odds come up, and still allows us to respond to whatever luck we actually get. The odds I gave for 3 actions was more to show that even if we get unlucky our odds of finishing those subjects are just as good if not better, plus the improvement from being able to allocate whatever actions are necessary to each, rather than being subject to one set of rolls we have to take the results of.
June is the month we're currently on, the one in which we're breaking through. You mean to say July, and that's what Karnax was telling you earlier.
I'm personally inclined to pick up Ancient Runes as the stated mechanical benefits are good with specifics being dependent on what exactly divination/Arithmancy give beyond the limited details, and what else the milestones offer to those who learn them. Furthermore the mechanics mean Rei is capped at the second milestone of beginner for Arithmancy, and thus lowering the threshold for success on that skill is wise as it makes it easier to train the skill that makes it easier to grind more things to shove into meridians, which feeds back into everything else.
Furthermore given how old Hogwarts is I cannot help feel there will be some narrative potency for Rei knowing the basics of a language used by those who came before her hundreds of years ago, and Ancient Runes, or a similar runic language would be a way for them to leave something behind that endures the test of time as Hogwarts is an ever changing castle. In general I'd expect Ancient Runes should be pretty useful when making things that are meant to have a fixed purpose.
Furthermore given how old Hogwarts is I cannot help feel there will be some narrative potency for Rei knowing the basics of a language used by those who came before her hundreds of years ago, and Ancient Runes, or a similar runic language would be a way for them to leave something behind that endures the test of time as Hogwarts is an ever changing castle. In general I'd expect Ancient Runes should be pretty useful when making things that are meant to have a fixed purpose.
Personally I really want us to grab some astronomy sometime soon just because I want to see more places of power, but we should take electives while we can.
CedeTheBees
Probably high right now
- Location
- Somewhere
- Pronouns
- They/Them
I vote that we do 5 Astronomy actions in September. The sites around Hogwarts are probably miles better than anything we can find outside of it.
- Location
- United Kingdom
Either that or 3x Astronomy, 1x Charms, 1x Meridians.
Good odds of Apprentice in the first two, and either 2 or 3 more meridians for the latter, though all in on Astronomy (assuming Beginner 2 CoMC) has ok odds of hitting the 1500 milestone, and gives us better odds of the sect point as well.
While places of power from Astronomy will be potent we absolutely want to grab at least one meridian action, or two if that is what is required to fill what we have currently. Frankly we'll likely want to do a second action pretty quickly to have enough space to shove new abilities the turn after they're voted on, and avoid the complication of needing to from them the next turn.
Also what we likely want is a really nice fire aligned place of power as Rei already has a reroll for 50-100 dice rolls, and that would have synergy with the exploding fire aspect dice technique Ron, or more likely Harry is noted to have picked up.
Another alternative is Astronomy x3 and Herbology x2 (with threshold reduction from CoMC and the rerolling of 1s from the Bag of Holding), especially if we manage to go Meridians x1 in August, which is doable on most plans.
Time for another appreciation post! It's never enough! ^^
The trip down memory lane that characterized our breakthrough felt almost nostalgic, and I loved how it perfectly showcased each of the options of the vote, expanding on their origin and wisdom in a way that made them all seem true to our character, with the winning pick being just the dominant one, in a sense. The opening of our third eye coming right as we made peace with our view, use and fear of fire wasn't just fitting, but profound as well.
The conversation with McGonagall was gratifying to read, and it felt good to have Rei's achievements, early as they may be, garner acknowledgement from an Elder. I wonder whether something along these lines happens to every first year who breaks through or if we deserved special attention. Same for the "nudge in the right direction" coming with the meridian booklet. On a different note, the transfiguration elder is still the only one to make an appearance since before last month's unusual point ceremony, which is intriguing.
The overflow scene(s), so to speak, perfectly captured the not so uncommon feelings that can arise when going back to your own previous and outdated work: mostly embarrassement, with some hints of pride towards your past self and a sense of satisfaction in seeing the long way you've come. The new charms were also nice, and I'm glad to see that some of the thread's suggestions made it into the story.
I liked the chat with Mandy and loved the one with Daphne, but I think I would have preferred immediately getting a pinch more than just more sparring out of the latter, and/or possibly have either fight (ideally the one with the Slytherin) happen on screen. However, the fact that we didn't get to see either "duel" makes me think there's going to be more behind this practice/tradition/trope of trading pointers, from a narrative and mechanics standpoint (future Defense lessons and Flitwick's club, perhaps?), which would make fighting more appealing to me. Either way, I'm excited for the invitation to the Greengrass compound and the promise of answers.
As always, thanks for writing, @Karf !
The trip down memory lane that characterized our breakthrough felt almost nostalgic, and I loved how it perfectly showcased each of the options of the vote, expanding on their origin and wisdom in a way that made them all seem true to our character, with the winning pick being just the dominant one, in a sense. The opening of our third eye coming right as we made peace with our view, use and fear of fire wasn't just fitting, but profound as well.
The conversation with McGonagall was gratifying to read, and it felt good to have Rei's achievements, early as they may be, garner acknowledgement from an Elder. I wonder whether something along these lines happens to every first year who breaks through or if we deserved special attention. Same for the "nudge in the right direction" coming with the meridian booklet. On a different note, the transfiguration elder is still the only one to make an appearance since before last month's unusual point ceremony, which is intriguing.
The overflow scene(s), so to speak, perfectly captured the not so uncommon feelings that can arise when going back to your own previous and outdated work: mostly embarrassement, with some hints of pride towards your past self and a sense of satisfaction in seeing the long way you've come. The new charms were also nice, and I'm glad to see that some of the thread's suggestions made it into the story.
I liked the chat with Mandy and loved the one with Daphne, but I think I would have preferred immediately getting a pinch more than just more sparring out of the latter, and/or possibly have either fight (ideally the one with the Slytherin) happen on screen. However, the fact that we didn't get to see either "duel" makes me think there's going to be more behind this practice/tradition/trope of trading pointers, from a narrative and mechanics standpoint (future Defense lessons and Flitwick's club, perhaps?), which would make fighting more appealing to me. Either way, I'm excited for the invitation to the Greengrass compound and the promise of answers.
As always, thanks for writing, @Karf !
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Vote closed
In regards to Daphne I'm pretty sure it is part she is lonely as she seems to not adhere to the ideology of the Purebloods, and this is uh an issue if say the reason for the Greengrass having lots of branch clans is from them kicking out those who don't pass an ideology purity test. Furthermore while this is only something I caught on the reread I suspect Daphne might've done what Tracey was worried about doing without support.
See what she was afraid was having to sleep with an eye open if she alienated Pansy, and below there is a explicit case of Daphne no longer hanging out with Pansy despite previously doing so. The decision to do so would fit her being more along the lines of her little sister who very much so didn't agree with people like Pansy, and explain a lot of things about what Daphne is doing.
That the books includes wildflowers makes me inclined to think it is meant it Is a bunch of Hogwarts plants she intends to take back to her little sister to give her a taste of what the place is like.
Given how Pureblood families burn the person out of the magical family tree this is pretty much the kids wanting to put a face to someone whose absence they've been constantly reminded of whenever proper etiquette is taught to them.
There's a big difference between alienating someone and (allegedly) not hanging around with them as much as previously. I'm not saying you're wrong on where Daphne is at currently, just that it's a big leap for now, with the scarse information we have.
The techniques that interact the best with this are Whip Shear (1 in 30 odds, twice, are much better than 1 in 100) and Light Eater (the higher the original roll, the better the odds, up to 50/50 chances of opening a meridian, even). Does this significantly change our evaluation of either technique, for what concerns next turn's priority list? Let's do some math (but with some rounding to make my life easier):
On two 7-dice actions: 14% odds of getting 1 additional success, which has an average gain of 100 points.
On three 5-dice actions: 13% odds of getting 1 additional success, which has an average gain of 80 points.
(Basically, around 23% odds of getting 1 additional success)
Brush:
On two 7-dice actions: 30% odds of getting 1 additional success (3% of getting 2), which has an average gain of 100 points.
On three 5-dice actions: 11% odds of getting 1 additional success, which has an average gain of 80 points.
Edit 3 - Got this wrong too, smh. XD
An average of 6 rolls affected for an average of 60 additional points in total.
Light-Eater:
An average of 3 rolls affected for an average of 75 additional points in total.
Whip Shear:
An average of 2 rolls affected for an average of 90 additional points in total.
Let me know if you think I got something wrong, but assuming I'm not, and also considering meridian-opening odds, I believe that, for next turn, we're better off "slotting in" Whip Shear and Light-Eater.
Edit - Wait, I got the techniques completely wrong, sorry. Corrections incoming.
Edit 2 - Here they are:
Light Summoning:
An average of 2 rolls affected for an average of 20 additional points.
Light Eater:
50% odds of 1 roll being affected (and 26% odds of 2) for an average of 25 (and 50) additional points.
Whip Shear:
42% odds of 1 roll being affected (and 9% odds of 2) for an average of 45 (and 90) additional points.
Again, let me know if you think I got stuff wrong, but assuming I'm not (anymore) and considering meridian opening odds, I believe that, for next turn, we're better off "slotting in" the brush and probably Whip Shear.
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You're massively overselling the techniques. Assuming we go with your plan, we have 14 dice with 9/23 odds, or about 5.5 successes and 15 dice with 7/21 odds, or about 5 successes, for about 10.5 successes. Each of the techniques only activate if our result roll has the correct element, so 2.1 dice will gave that element. Light summoning increases the average results of a roll by 10, for an average increase of 21 points, light-eater inceases the average results of a roll by about 12.5, for an increase of about 26. for whip shear, if the dice is metal it also has a 32% chance of activating, with each activating on average giving 46 points on the 7 dice actions and 26 points on the 5 dice actions, for a total of 1.1*.32*46+1*.32*26= about 24.5 points.
Also, you're underselling brush. On each 7 dice action it has about a .49 chance of giving a dice, each with a 9/23=about 39% chance of success, or about a 38% chance of giving 1 success on two actions. on each 5 dice action it has about a 31% chance of giving a dice, each with a 7/21=1/3 chance of success, or about 31% chance of giving 1 success on 3 actions. This all comes out to 63 points on average.
In terms of meridians, whip shear has a .2*.32=.064 chance of happening, and if it does gives an average of 1/15 meridians, or about a 1/250 chance of getting a meridian we otherwise would not have gotten per success. light-eater has in total a 1/5*1/100 chance of giving a 1/3 chance of a meridian, the same of a 1/5 chance all the way to a 1/500 chance of a 1/101 chance, adding up at actually also about a 1/250 chance total
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Yeah, I noticed and corrected the techniques, but could you explain the math behind this? It doesn't add up for me.
for the 5 dice actions the three middle dice need to be different, so .8*.6 chance, either the first or fifth die needs to be different from all three so (1-.6^2)=.64 for a total of .8*.6*.64= about 31%. I don't actually know the math for 7, I used a program to simulate it and got the average from that. Also, something I forgot earlier is that the extra dice from brush can give us more extra dice, which gives a (.8*.6*.4)^2=about 4% chance of occurring.
Edit: for 6 dice we have a .8 chance that the two middle dice don't match, given that we have a .4^2=.16 chance both the 2nd and 5th dice match one of the two, a .6*.4*2=.48 chance only one matches, a 6*.2=.12 that they both match neither, but do match each other, and a .6*.4=.24 that neither matches and they don't match eachother either. in the first case we can't get a dice, in the second we have a .4 chance, in the third we have a 1-.6^=.64 chance and in the 4th we have a chance of 1 this comes out to .8*(.48*.4+.12*.64+.24*1)=41% so the 49% for 7 dice does fit.
Edit: for 6 dice we have a .8 chance that the two middle dice don't match, given that we have a .4^2=.16 chance both the 2nd and 5th dice match one of the two, a .6*.4*2=.48 chance only one matches, a 6*.2=.12 that they both match neither, but do match each other, and a .6*.4=.24 that neither matches and they don't match eachother either. in the first case we can't get a dice, in the second we have a .4 chance, in the third we have a 1-.6^=.64 chance and in the 4th we have a chance of 1 this comes out to .8*(.48*.4+.12*.64+.24*1)=41% so the 49% for 7 dice does fit.
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And how does the towel fair, still on two normal (7d23 DC15 at +50) and three malus (5d21 DC15 at +30) actions?
And on a related note, and with the usual premise of "don't hesitate to say no", could you calculate the odds for:
-getting 70+ points in 5d21 DC14 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians.
-getting 70+ points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians. (Or 60+ points? 80+? I'm not sure what the most realistic good-odds amount would be, here.)
-getting 120+ (130+? 110+?) points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the four best uses of meridians.
-getting 184+ points in 10d21 DC15 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians.
-getting 184+ points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the four best uses of meridians.
Basically, going Malus Meridian and Malus CoMC in July and another Malus CoMC in August (with 4 total meridians) to finish it, compared to simply 2 Malus CoMC (with the 2 meridians we already have).
And on a related note, and with the usual premise of "don't hesitate to say no", could you calculate the odds for:
-getting 70+ points in 5d21 DC14 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians.
-getting 70+ points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians. (Or 60+ points? 80+? I'm not sure what the most realistic good-odds amount would be, here.)
-getting 120+ (130+? 110+?) points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the four best uses of meridians.
-getting 184+ points in 10d21 DC15 at +30 with the two best uses of meridians.
-getting 184+ points in 5d21 DC15 at +30 with the four best uses of meridians.
Basically, going Malus Meridian and Malus CoMC in July and another Malus CoMC in August (with 4 total meridians) to finish it, compared to simply 2 Malus CoMC (with the 2 meridians we already have).
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