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Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

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    • no. said:
    I don't see the problem with him turtling up. If he does, Manuel can smash other important locations.
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    Yeah but Manuel doesn't know whether Junjie is determined to turtle or not. According to Manuel's Plan, he doesn't smash other important locations because he still hopes to draw Junjie out.
     
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    Lampshade said:
    Yeah but Manuel doesn't know whether Junjie is determined to turtle or not. According to Manuel's Plan, he doesn't smash other important locations because he still hopes to draw Junjie out.
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    I have enough trust in Manuel's intelligence to know he won't sit there gormlessly for twenty years without adjusting his plans at all.
     
    no. said:
    I have enough trust in Manuel's intelligence to know he won't sit there gormlessly for twenty years without adjusting his plans at all.
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    But the momentum is lost. If we breeze through his defenses then we put mental pressure on him, but if Manuel has to break stalemates to even get to USP then Junjie might find the confidence to try and wait us out, which is one of the worst case scenarios.
     
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    Lampshade said:
    But the momentum is lost. If we breeze through his defenses then we put mental pressure on him, but if Manuel has to break stalemates to even get to USP then Junjie might find the confidence to try and wait us out, which is one of the worst case scenarios.
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    In this situation you have drawn, why is Manuel doing this? What does he think is going to change that will draw Junjie out? He says "but I'll continue to sit and wait", but why does he say that?

    Manuel's ability to plan on the fly is unmatched, I trust him to switch it up if he feels he needs to.
     
    no. said:
    In this situation you have drawn, why is Manuel doing this? What does he think is going to change that will draw Junjie out? He says "but I'll continue to sit and wait", but why does he say that?
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    I just did a funny, I didn't put that much thought into it.
    no. said:
    Manuel's ability to plan on the fly is unmatched, I trust him to switch it up if he feels he needs to.
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    Yes, but my original argument was that I expect things to go a lot better if he won't need to.
     
    Lampshade said:
    we only risk disaster in fringe cases like Junjie and Jiao teaming up on our weak side.
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    This was a genuinely good summary, thanks for writing it. I just had to take you up on your wording here. I really don't see this as a fringe case. Check the Raid post again, its one of the few Junjie scenes we have, but its pretty telling.

    Unless he has some noteworthy advantage, Junjie isn't going to want to engage Manuel 1 on 1. He was already offerered that fight, on home ground and with his daughter already on the sidelines, but he declined in fear of Old Golds famous tricks.

    Shell games not 100% clear to me on if it exposes K's existence before the crucial moment, but it certainly looks like it does with its greater focus on Nascent interventions to ease the Legions approach and the line about Nascents spearheading each force. I fully expect J+J to travel together, and for them to decide to hunt a newbie Nascent to even the odds and scare us off. Particularly since the plan calls for Manuel to make uncharacteristically bold and overt moves that makes it clear he thinks he has the upper hand in a scrap.
     
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    Katana1515 said:
    Shell games not 100% clear to me on if it exposes K's existence before the crucial moment, but it certainly looks like it does with its greater focus on Nascent interventions to ease the Legions approach and the line about Nascents spearheading each force.
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    You'll have to ask the architects of "Modified" about that, but as I understood it, we try to hide Klei and pretend that Manuel is somehow on both fronts to get away with the actions of 2 NS at the "price" (in terms of intimidation) of one.
    The way I see it, one of the layers of the titular shell game is in the fact that whether they call the bluff or not, we gain either way.

    If they think Manuel is invading fast, trying to scare them after his last bluff worked, taking them for fools, while actually spreading himself thin with a few legions that he could scrap together on short notice because some incident in the plains allows him to act without reprisal for a while, hoping to smash up as much as he can and then run away, then they come out to confront him and get hufflepuffed.

    If they buy the swagger that Manuel is so OP he can be on 2 fronts and turtle up in response, they see "him" actually do the work of two NS . . . holy crap . . . Manuel could be anywhere, he could be RIGHT BEHIND ME. Yeah I'm not staying here, I'm taking the deal and getting out of here.
     
    The 'cost' of them declining to fight is actually quite high though, its the war dragging out long enough to force a negotiated settlement.

    What I'm looking for in these plans is the balance between our end goal, what we choose to risk, and which of our forces faces the greatest hazard. I'm not interested in precise micro management, it seems a tad silly when the war looks likely to go on for 20 years at a minimum and will have all sorts of X factors we can't predict. I'm not the QM and I can't read his mind, but I think we are being asked to provide a loose strategic doctrine, not a pinned down tactical plan.

    Manuel's plan goes all in on on getting us a decisive engagement and the entire prize. It places almost all the risk and hazard on the Legions to achieve that goal, with minimal risks to the Nascents. Its ruthless, but in the end, its also the correct priorities.

    Shell Game looks to achieve the same goal, but to my mind tries to ease the legions suffering by having our Nascents take on increased risks. Its a worthy and reasonable goal, but for me the wrong priorities.
     
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    Lampshade said:
    You'll have to ask the architects of "Modified" about that, but as I understood it, we try to hide Klei and pretend that Manuel is somehow on both fronts to get away with the actions of 2 NS at the "price" (in terms of intimidation) of one.
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    If Manuel seems to be on both flanks, J&J will have to attack together if they want to attack at all. They can't afford to get split up against Manuel, they don't think even taking him together is a sure thing. They'll either attack 'Manuel' together with the Wangshen Cannon (edit: if functional) to tip the odds, or they'll attack 'Manuel' in the South together, taking out Kleisthenes. Optimistically, we'd be able to rescue Kleisthenes with Manuel rushing South, but an Early Nascent and a Mid Nascent fighting an Early Nascent should be over dangerously quickly.

    Edit: And if the Wangshen Fort isn't operational, that makes it more likely that J&J will go South to fight Kleisthenes together.
     
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    Olivebirdy said:
    They'll either attack 'Manuel' together with the Wangshen Cannon to tip the odds,
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    Shell Game suggested a fast tempo. If Jingshen are making a stand at Wangshen then Klei is pulling up the southern front, or at least close enough to personally join.
    Olivebirdy said:
    or they'll attack 'Manuel' in the South together, taking out Kleisthenes.
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    You are Jingshen Junjie, patriarch of the mighty Jingshen Clan.

    And you've been duped.

    The ball is under a different shell. The princess is in another castle.

    Also, the Golden Devils have more than one Nascent Soul.

    On top of that, you are not excited about your chances to take Manuel even 2v1, much less 2v2, and he already demonstrated an ability to teleport to friendly Nascent Souls. Moreover, the "Yao" guarding Golden Devil core lands could very well be a fake as well.

    You will:
    A) Have a heart attack on the spot.
    B) Fight a potential 2v3.
    C) Leave Jiao to secure South while you rush to face "Manuel" West.
    D) Rush to the Underworld Spirit Palace before Manuel infiltrates it and disables all your defenses.
    E) Other.
     
    This is if I attack and find K rather than Manuel in the South?

    I don't feel duped, I feel relieved to finally have an answer to the mystery. Your theoretical Junjie already knows that Manuel must have some kind of big ace up his sleeve to be acting so bold. An unexpected Early Nascent fits that ticket pretty well.

    Now I take this heaven sent opportunity to take that card away. Even if I can't kill her, I can wound or cripple her until she retreats, buying me the time I need to wrangle the RP for aid.

    As for talk of teleportation talismans, I don't think that kind of micromanagement gets us very far, too many unknowns. The fact Manuel already saved one of his juniors by apparently teleporting to Yao's location is actually a serious problem with your suggestion. Junjie and Jiao will certainly have gone over the encounter in detail, and have the resources to acquire countermeasures to that sort of trick.

    I think its fairer to say that a plan that puts each of our 2 Nascents at the tip of one of two spearfronts inherently has greater risk for them than a plan thats explicitly about obfuscating their presence and minimising their involvement
     
    Lampshade said:
    It's not just about the power math, it's about the shock of guessing wrong, about fear whether the other "Manuel" is real and if not, what the real Manuel could be up to . . .
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    My point still stands. If your argument is that Shell Game is somehow going to make Junjie so scared of Phantom Manuel that he won't seize any opportunity or strike at weakness, (which I don't think is the intent or particularly likely but hey) then its a bad plan thats lost sight of its goal. We want Junjie confident enough to take a fight, that's the entire point.
     
    Lampshade said:
    I don't buy that Junjie has the balls for that.
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    Jiao attacked an Early Nascent on her own, I don't think adding Old Jingshen to the equation will make it less likely for them to attack.

    Lampshade said:
    Shell Game suggested a fast tempo. If Jingshen are making a stand at Wangshen then Klei is pulling up the southern front, or at least close enough to personally join.
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    I suppose it's possible that taking HBP and TSP and marching through bare desert sand and road will take the same amount of time as taking the first two fortresses along the Scorpion Road, but I absolutely wouldn't rely on it. Calling for a fast tempo won't actually make it fast, and True Son Peak is going to be a tough nut.

    Lampshade said:
    On top of that, you are not excited about your chances to take Manuel even 2v1, much less 2v2, and he already demonstrated an ability to teleport to friendly Nascent Souls. Moreover, the "Yao" guarding Golden Devil core lands could very well be a fake as well.

    You will:
    A) Have a heart attack on the spot.
    B) Fight a potential 2v3.
    C) Leave Jiao to secure South while you rush to face "Manuel" West.
    D) Rush to the Underworld Spirit Palace before Manuel infiltrates it and disables all your defenses.
    E) Other.
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    If 'Yao' is not verifiably outside the battlefield, Jingshen will probably decide to just stay home.
    By now Jiao will have most likely figured out the teleportation was an illusion, Nascents/Old Monsters don't stay fooled for long. But if he thinks Manuel has free teleportation, he'll probably buy something to block it, only attack unguarded legions, raise another Nascent or two, or stay home.

    The Stay Home option is a victory for us, but it's a victory that means that we only get half of Jingshen's wealth and leave two Nascent Souls at our backs waiting for Old Cannibal's attack in seven turns or a bad Trial in four.
     
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    Lampshade said:
    Shell Game suggested a fast tempo. If Jingshen are making a stand at Wangshen then Klei is pulling up the southern front, or at least close enough to personally join.
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    I'm sorry to tell you this, but saying "do it fast" doesn't actually make something faster. We can't just paint the Legionnaires red to make em fastah.

    And like others have said; if Jujie is as much of a gibbering paranoiac as you think he is, then how does he even run his own faction? How is he not scared of his own shadow? After all, Manuel uses shadow magic; maybe Old Gold's about to leap out of there at any moment and cut his nuts off. I think we can assume a bit of basic rationality and accurate readings of risk based on available information from him.
     
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    Katana1515 said:
    We want Junjie confident enough to take a fight, that's the entire point.
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    Shell Game was never going to be as good at luring Junjie out as Manuel's Plan, since Occi outright implied that. It's about the philosophy of using the spear, whether to reach for absurd highs at the risk of disastrous lows, try to mostly cover weakness or find a happy in-between.
    Katana1515 said:
    If your argument is that Shell Game is somehow going to make Junjie so scared of Phantom Manuel that he won't seize any opportunity or strike at weakness, (which I don't think is the intent or particularly likely but hey) then its a bad plan thats lost sight of its goal.
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    I was explaining why I believe that Shell Game doesn't leave us completely hung out to dry in this specific scenario. Under this shell, we don't have a specific benefit but part of a bigger puzzle that hopefully improves our chance to force a fast surrender if Junjie turtles.
    Olivebirdy said:
    Jiao attacked an Early Nascent on her own, I don't think adding Old Jingshen to the equation will make it less likely for them to attack.
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    I'll try to rephrase the testicular joke to dry prose then. Let's say that even between hit after hit to their diplomatic efforts and the chaos of the plains they managed to secure this very specific artifact or some other counter, this still leaves Junjie doubting whether "West Manuel" is real.

    If Manuel can sneak into USP and lock Junjie out, that's easily worth an early NS. I don't think Junjie takes that risk.
    no. said:
    And like others have said; if Jujie is as much of a gibbering paranoiac as you think he is, then how does he even run his own faction?
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    Poorly? That has, in fact, been the general trend. :V
     
    Lampshade said:
    Shell Game was never going to be as good at luring Junjie out as Manuel's Plan, since Occi outright implied that. It's about the philosophy of using the spear, whether to reach for absurd highs at the risk of disastrous lows, try to mostly cover weakness or find a happy in-between.
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    Well, I suppose that doesn't leave much space for anything apart from agreeing to disagree. If we concur that Shell Game grants a poorer shot at achieving the top prize for lessened troop losses and moderately higher exposure of our Nascents, that's literally the position I posited a few posts ago. Like I said then, it is not an unreasonable plan, just not the set of priorities I personally am gunning for.
     
    It certainly doesn't seem like their original 'Righteous Bandit' methodology is the sort of thing the proposed SPS Pact would tolerate. They seemed to have had a habit of stealing from other RP powers if they could get away with it, partially for the robin hood aspect, partly for kicks.

    They could adapt of course, no better time than right now when the FD's are basically just Yao and a select few disciples. Maybe become mercs in the Demon Wars? Though Yao already got badly burned trying that once.

    Yao already sort of floated the idea of taking land and vassal status from us last turn. My only concern is that Manuel might decide a political marriage is necessary to keep a firm grip on such a powerful vassal.

    I really wouldn't want to inflict that on the old man!
     
    Katana1515 said:
    It certainly doesn't seem like their original 'Righteous Bandit' methodology is the sort of thing the proposed SPS Pact would tolerate. ( . . . ) Maybe become mercs in the Demon Wars? Though Yao already got badly burned trying that once.
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    I was thinking the same here, they get unprecedented legitimacy if they bend the knee and sign up as mercs, but the new rules might be outright incompatible with some of the core values of 'Righteous Banditry' . . .

    She could try to make it work anyways in spite of the rules, but personally, with the amount of legacies buried in the desert, I'd like to see a transition to "Tomb Raider Yao" . . . . :grin:

    Katana1515 said:
    My only concern is that Manuel might decide a political marriage is necessary to keep a firm grip on such a powerful vassal.
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    Well, Xinya was looking to get hitched last time I heard, two birds with one stone. :evil2:
     
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