Game of Thrones Season 7
- Thread starter Teen Spirit
- Start date
- Location
- San Diego, United States
I have. I maintain that Varys being a Blackfyre or at the very least a Blackfyre supporter remains the only logical explanation for his actions. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the Blackfyres have been elaborated on so much in recent back story and novellas, at the same time the organization backing his claimant is a group founded by Blackfyres that not long ago had the explicit goal of crowning a Blackfyre.
- Location
- Volksstaat Hessen, Deutsches Reich
Which ended in Maelys the Monstrous taking over the company by simply murdering his cousin and dragging it into an unsuccessful war. The Golden Company is made up of exiles from Westeros who just want to go home - be able to, have their lands restored maybe, that sort of thing. If "Aegon" or Dany can grant them that, then it really doesn't matter much which colour the dragon has. Blackfyre links are absolutely not needed to explain that support.
As for Varys and Illyrio, their actions are puzzling, but the riddle isn't solved by declaring them to be Blackfyre supporters. The central problem is how they at times lavishly support Viserys and Dany, and at other times have them sink so low that they need to flee from Free City to Free City while having to sell all their belongings. Their entire approach seems contradictory, but that is the same whether they are Blackfyre supporters or not.
Also, it should be pointed out that there was only ever one true Blackfyre rebellion, the First. Everything after was, basically, a joke. And that Rebellion is a century ago already. How many true ideological supporters will the Blackfyre claim still have after that time? And especially after Maelys the Monstrous? Support for the ruling dynasty that has only been toppled fifteen years ago after having ruled for nearly 300 years is one thing; but an obscure lost cause of would have beens from a century ago? Ehhh...
As for recent back story and novellas, uh, the most recent publication was that novella about the Dance of the Dragons, the other major civil war.
Ultimately, I think it more likely that Varys and Illyrio are simply out for themselves. Varys actually simply rose to power from the gutters of the Free Cities to the Red Keep, and once inside the Red Keep did everything to retain his position, like keeping an eye on the potential rebellious thought of the Crown Prince and (lest we forget that) counseling Aerys to not open the city gates for the Lannister army. And Illyrio remained his tactical ally in all that. Meanwhile, fake Aegon may simply be Illyrio's son by his beloved second wife - a Lysene possessing the typical Valyrian looks that the Targaryens possess as well. So Illyrio's gain in all this may indeed simply be to see his own son on the Westerosi throne.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
Eh, Third and Aenys both stood a chance.
- Location
- Volksstaat Hessen, Deutsches Reich
The second "Rebellion" was a conspiracy that was discovered and suppressed before it could even have launched, and Third and Fourth were single landings of the Golden Company that basically found no support whatsoever in Westeros except maybe some really, really die-hard supporters like the Peakes. And the Fifth Rebellion didn't even make it to Westeros and was stopped on the Stepstone Islands.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
I'm aware, but Fourth and Third - had they won a single battle - would have established legitimacy, and garnered support.
But Aenys was the best Blackfyre.
- Location
- Volksstaat Hessen, Deutsches Reich
So they needed to win a battle to show they have a chance at winning the war in order to attract support, but they would need support in order to win that battle
Though even with one battle lost, I doubt many would have chosen the Blackfyres. The issues around which the original Daemon Blackfyre had rallied his people, like the Dornish influence at court, simply didn't exist anymore, and given the long shots, why risk anything by supporting the Golden Company? As for Aenys... yeah, right. Even if Bloodraven hadn't killed him, nobody would have listened to him. Hell, he wasn't even the dynastically senior Blackfyre, nevermind that never would they have chose a Blackfyre.
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- San Diego, United States
They're not exiles, they're the sons of the sons of the sons of exiles. Most have no real link to Westeros.
Except when the real Targaryen claimant asked them to help him retake the throne, the captains of the Golden Company literally laughed in his face. Then another "Targaryen" comes and those same captains suddenly agree to follow him, and him specifically. Hmmmm...
No, they consistently give Viserys and Daenerys very little support and place them into dangerous situations even when it would be trivial to help them. The only possible exception would be Illyrio giving Daenerys the eggs, but he didn't think those would actually spawn living dragons- after that, Daenerys became a possible asset, rather than just a loose end. But before that they did nothing while the Targs very easily could have been killed. Varys later outright tries to have them killed. This makes no sense if they're Targ supporters, especially since Aerys declared Viserys to be his heirs while Aegon still lived. It makes perfect sense, however, if they're Blackfyres trying to bump off that inconvenient line.
EDIT: Illyrio also flat-out tells Tyrion that he was expecting Daenerys to die with the Dothraki. So that's clear confirmation that they were trying to bump the Targs off.
They had enough supporters to conduct the Ninepenny War, which was a couple generations ago. Their cause is clearly not dead. And it doesn't require that many supporters, just a few dozen conspirators and merc captains- the bulk of the rank-and-file won't care about ideology.
That said it's really hard to be worse rulers than the Targaryens. Every one who is not homicidal is useless, and the last batch is both homicidal and useless.
Personal gain makes no sense as a motivation for Varys simply because he stands to lose much from his own actions and has much, much easier means of simply amassing riches if that's all he wants.
Please remember that Varys is no Westerosi, he can't be motivated by any ties to the realm itself. Nor is he motivated by personal wealth or influence, he could have had that far more easily in even Pentos, and says that he's not to a dying Kevan when he has little reason to lie about his motivations (details of his secret plan sure, but not the core reasoning for why he's doing it). Nor can he gain something lasting for his family, considering he's unable of starting one. By and large, that leaves only the Illyrio-Serra-Varys-theories, and they focus on Westeros, not Essos. They've got to have a deep emotional connection to it.
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- Location
- Volksstaat Hessen, Deutsches Reich
That's not quite true. While many members are company born and bred, they still do take in new exiles from Westeros. Still, the result is the same: What most company members want is to return (or "return") to Westeros. To have old family lands restored to them. Yadda yadda, the usual. If Daenerys or Aegon can provide that, then that will matter much more than which obscure branch of the Targaryen dynasty (and the Blackfyres are after all just a Targaryen cadet branch) they belong to, or if at all.
Yes, because those Captains were in cohorts with Illyrio and had been given plans by him. But by the time "Aegon" shows up, literally none of those plans have come to fruitition, so the exiles, eager to return home, said "screw it, Westeros will never get so desolate again as it's now, that's our chance".
They still represent an enormous worth. Jorah says by selling all three eggs, Dany could live like a queen for her entire life. Clearly, dragon eggs seem so very valuable that they must have represented a good portion of Illyrio's net worth. And really, if Varys and Illyrio wanted to have them killed, nothing would have been easier. The idea that they try to get them killed by exposing them to great dangers is ridiculous; they could very easily have arranged for their death themselves. Hell, it were them who sheltered and protected the two most the time. Not very well... but that is exactly the contradiction here. Still, if they truly had wanted them dead, they would be dead.
...once Viserys was dead. His plan had not been that Dany dies with the Dothraki. It's just that his thought process upon hearing of Viserys' death was "Welp, so much for that"... only for him to later hear that Dany is alive and has dragons.
That was, again, just the Golden Company, plus the other eight "Kings" as their supporters. Nobody at all in Westeros. And most of the time, the Golden Company is just a mercenary company, if the best one of the Free Cities. Maelys took it over by force, by killing his own cousin, allied himself with eight other unsavoury characters from the Free Cities and invaded the Stepstones. That's it. The war was forced by Maelys (and after that, even the Golden Company may have enough of the Blackfyre cause), Westerosi houses weren't involved and the war didn't even reach Westeros. The Blackfyre cause is deader than disco.
What? Yeah, sure, right. I mean, we only have a united Westeros lasting for nearly 300 years with only two major wars in that time. Also, Jaehaerys I, Daerion II, Aegon V etc all never happened, apparently. And, once again, the Blackfyres are Targaryens.
He is working in cohort with Illyrio, though. He always has, ever since he was still a street urchin. Illyrio and Varys are a team, one entity, supporting each other. So, now, he is supporting Illyrio getting Illyrio's son ("Aegon") on the throne.
Or they don't and the two stole them after the rebellion from the leftover Targ stash.
- Location
- Volksstaat Hessen, Deutsches Reich
Well, I mean, that would be my guess as well, but does that change anything I've said? They still could as well simply not give them to Dany, after all.
- Location
- San Diego, United States
So they waited 50 years to make another attempt despite Westeros being in a worse shape in the wake of RR than it is now, close to fracturing? What exactly is different this time that makes them want to make the attempt?
Varys doesn't act like the Golden Company has drastically deviated from the plan when they land. Clearly this was part of the plot or at least fits with it.
Illyrio gave them no insurance and no way to avoid losing said eggs if someone tried to mug them (and really, it's stupid no one did). He gave Daenerys the eggs simply to show off how fabulously wealthy he is that something so valuable means so little to him. No other motivation makes sense- he wasn't expecting them to hatch, and if he wanted to just support Daenerys, then liquid assets would surely be preferable.
They weren't explicitly trying to kill them, because if by some miracle their begging had results, then all the better. Viserys got no one to his cause, but if by some miracle he did, Aegon could co-opt them; if he can't, then he just dies, which is their default plan if this doesn't work anyway. Daenerys going with the Dothraki has a 95% chance of just killing her. If so, great. But there's also a small chance that she can convince the Dothraki to attack Westeros, which will result in the Dothraki getting shit-stomped into the dirt by the Westerosi, but not before fracturing into a bunch of bands that cause a lot of damage to the countryside and further increase dissatisfaction with King Bob's rule and set the stage for Aegon. If so, double great.
The Golden Company is all that's required. No one supports the Blackfyres in Westeros currently, but Varys is passing his Blackfyre companion as a totally-not-like-the-other-Targs Targ, so it doesn't matter.
There were far, far, far more than two wars. There were dozens known with three being continent-wide wars unprecedented in the history of Westeros up to that point. There is no evidence the Targ rule kept peace at all. Just off the top of my head:
Conquest
First attack on Dorne
Faith Militant uprising
Maegar's war against his nephew
War for the Stepstones
Dance of the Dragons
Conquest of Dorne*
Aegon IV's war against Dorne
Blackfyre Rebellion I
Blackfyre Rebellion II
Dagon Greyjoy's Rebellion
Blackfyre Rebellion III
Blackfyre Rebellion IV
War of the Ninepenny Kings
Robert's Rebellion
Balon Greyjoy's Rebellion
*A quick comment on this: it's one of the only ones we have solid numbers for. The number of (non-Dornish) Westerosi soldiers who died in this three-year war was 60,000. 10,000 in the initial conquest and 50,000 in the various rebellions that followed. Add a similar number of Dornish combatant deaths (I would expect around 20,000 in the initial conquest alone since the Targ-loyal forces won while taking half that much, and losses tended to be lopsided in the winner's favor in medieval war) and you're already exceeding the 100,000 death toll among armies for this one three year conflict. That's ridiculous. The War of the Five Kings hasn't been anywhere near that deadly (assuming civilian casualties are at all proportionate to the military ones in both cases), much less any of the unnamed wars between three or more regions that came around once every generation or two pre-Conquest.
Those are just the ones involving three or more regions. There's also:
Raymund Redbeard's raids
Skagosi Rebellion
Vulture King (at 30,000 troops he had more men than some regions)
Unnamed major rebellion which claimed Maekar's life
Reyne-Castamere rebellion
Duskendale Defiance
Kingswood Brotherhood
Lothstone War
Near-destruction of KL (would have claimed more lives than most previous wars if not for Jaime)
Daenerys's Essosi invasion (if it ever happens)
...and a bunch of minor feuds, like that Osgrey land dispute, the attacks on the Westerlands during Tytos's time, and the Wildling raids.
They happened, and they were terrible. Daeron a good king? The guy who gave Dorne concessions and a marriage alliance after they murdered a king under a banner of peace? Who brought greater war while trying to bring peace and created an imbalanced court while seeking justice? Are you out of your mind? And Jaehaerys? What did he do? Build a tenth of a dirt road?
To paraphrase two other posters: the Targaryens, in 300 years, built a few hundred km of dirt road to link to the road built by the Storm Kings, then called it the "King's Road". That's the sum total of their investment in their kingdom's infrastructure and economic development after hundreds of years of undisputed magical rule of an entire continent nearly as large as Europe. At the end of a massive civil war that finally saw the Targaryens deposed, their vaults were absolutely filled to bursting with gold that wasn't being used for anything, just being hoarded. They're a parasitic blight on Westeros. They brought nothing but war and suffering with their magic, and continue to bring nothing but war and suffering in the present.
Their combination of uselessness or monstrosity might actually be inherent to their magical blood. There isn't a single positive legend or history or whatever about the great Valyrian families. From what we read they were basically Chaos Cultists.
That doesn't gain him anything though. The explanation that he's purely in it for personal gain doesn't work. His motivation has to be at least partly ideological or emotional.
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Polokun
Dragonheart
I kept watching Preston's videos because I wanted a reminder of how much was different between the books and the show. I'll admit, there is quite a bit I forgot from the books but MAN a lot of Preston's theories rely solely on a ton of people being telepathically controlled or sent specific dreams.
- Location
- Mons Regius
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's good for being a Blackfyre loyalist, but not so much for being a Blackfyre himself, or else I would imagine he would take the Throne himself.
- Location
- San Diego, United States
Why would he seek the throne himself? Literally no one would follow him and he's incapable of producing an heir. Total non-starter. Plus fAegon's "true" identity would probably be ahead of him on the Blackfyre line of succession anyway.
What's to stop her from simply burning the Red Keep and Cersei and instantly winning her war?
Polokun
Dragonheart
Well going by show logic, its cause she doesn't want to cause unnessiary innocent deaths and destruction of KL.
fAegon and the Golden Company however is just an army, no different then the Lannister Army she had Drogon burn in episode 4.
And if Aegon is in King's Landing when she arrives in Westeros, which is more than likely at this point?
You assume he'll be conveniently away from any population centers and the Golden Company will be made up of idiots who can't come up with any strategy to avoid getting all of their forces immolated at once by a dragon. Even the slaver coalition, with their memetic ineptitude, took some steps to have countermeasures in place, such as getting as many scorpions and crossbows as they can. The Golden Company has quality archers and can almost certainly get scorpions, as well as actively avoid having all of their forces just stand there and wait to be burned.
Also, Dany does not control all three dragons, only Drogon, and it is more than likely she'll lose at least one to Victarion/Euron.
If the Second Dance ends with Dany showing up and roasting Aegon instantly, it wouldn't be called a Second Dance.
Polokun
Dragonheart
Personally, I don't think it'll be so much a Second Dance as it'll be a repeat of the Second Blackfyre "Rebellion".
- Location
- San Diego, United States
Her dragons are weaksauce currently, one was almost killed by a few civilians with spears. And she can only control one of them, further reducing whatever utility they may have.
RareDivine
It sounds so pretentious when you say it like that
- Location
- Earth Tev
Because her book dragons are tiny think of what they looked like when Dany was in Astapor(where she got the unsullied), that's a good estimate for what their book size is like, the show pulled an Eragon and jumped the two year old Drogon to the size of the 126 year old Valerion(or possibly to the size of 210 year old Valerion, the "Inside the Episode"). You have to keep in mind in the book the dragons are less a trump card and more a golden goose that won't roost any time soon. The book dragons won't see significant combat unless everything has already gone to shit, realistically they will be used for scouting and such.
- Location
- The Final Frontier
No. That's just wrong on many levels. Read ADWD.
RareDivine
It sounds so pretentious when you say it like that
- Location
- Earth Tev
Drogons wingspan was said to be twenty feet, the show's dragons in astapor looked to have a 12-15 feet wingspan.
ADWD would put book Drogon at around the size of a horse, maybe a bit bigger, according to random people online using stated size of his wingspan to judge his actual size.