Strike 1: Attacking Hawaii, why?! If your real target was oil fields south of the Philippines then just attack the Philippines! No one gives a (you know what) about the Philippines! (sorry Sheo but it was kinda true at the time)
Because in 1941 the Philippines were a US possession (that was in the process of getting handed back to the Filipinos, but that is neither here nor there). The worry in Tokyo was when they made their move, the Pacific Fleet would have deployed forward to Manila and severed their supply lines to the Dutch East Indies/Malaya (which would have involved taking Singapore)/Indochina. That means that the Philippines, Wake, and Guam had to be taken, and the Pacific fleet had to be knocked out for six months (long enough to secure the oilfields in the DEI). Then the US would come to the negotiating table and all would be settled to Japan's favor.
Plus in 1941 Hawaii was a territory just like the Philippines had been and Guam and Wake were. Which is why 'Laska nearly had a sister named after Hawaii to join 'Laska and Guam. Surely one more territory attacked would not stir the Americans, right?
Strike 2: Shoddy workmanship. If you're going to destroy something that's got high strategic importance to your enemy, the least you can do is do a good job of it. Forget the carriers for a moment, I doubt taking them out would've made much of a difference in the end anyways. America still would've kicked their asses. But ignoring the oil fields and the sub pens. Those little boats came out in a feeding frenzy!
Again, Japan planned for a six-month war. Blitz Southeast Asia then negotiate to secure your gains. If the war only lasts six months, you don't need the oil reserves or the drydocks hit. So Wave 1 is tasked to attack the Battleships and Carriers, then Wave 2 destroys Cruisers. Furthermore, in Japanese naval doctrine, subs and lighter craft are used to scout for and weaken the USN before KANTAI KESSEN!! destroys them. Surely the USN goes by the same book, since they study Mahan too, right, right?
Strike 3: Sneak Attack. A fair number of the Japanese field commanders in the Navy all knew that attacking Hawaii was a bad idea. Nagumo knew it, Yammamoto knew it. Yammamoto might've been one of the very few who knew that a sneak attack was a very very bad idea! He certainly knew it after the attack when he listened to the broadcasts. The quote about the "sleeping giant" is just another way of saying "Oh shit! We're fucked now!" And Japan was. Because that's Strike number 3 and they are out!
They tried to send the 'breaking off negotiations' message before the attack (but screwed that up). That said, they
badly misread the psychology of the attack and also how America would respond, no arguments here. Remember that a sneak attack had worked in 1905 and led to KANTAI KESSEN!! at Tsushima which was the IJN's great victory, so they were drinking their own kool-aide, in their own bubble, wondering why they are not 50 points ahead, pick the metaphor of choice for them walking blindly off the cliff with their epic strategic fuckup.
Japan started World War 2 with one of the dumbest strategic decisions in the history of war, and proceeded to continue with strategic foolishness mixed with occasional moments of tactical intelligence.
Barbarossa was pretty up there too.
Mid-late 1941 was the Axis grabbing the Idiot Ball with all their strength.
Germany decided to gun for Russia, then Italy fucked an already iffy plan up by attacking Greece and needing a bailout, which led to Barbarossa getting pushed back while Hitler overran the Balkans, THEN going ahead anyway with less time on the clock. Then, just to put a capper on the year, Japan said "hold my beer" and attacked Pearl Harbor to bring America into the war and also reduce the threat to Vladivostok, allowing Russia to move reserves to Moscow.