Bad Blood (Mafia)
- Thread starter LostDeviljho
- Start date
- Mafia
-
- Tags
- mafia prepare to die
Look to the Left
Back from the Void
- Location
- OH CANADA!!!
Yeah. Kinda boring really.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
Not really. I'm still somewhat suspicious of AlphaDelta, but I'm more suspicious of Dirk, and there's not anything I can think of to say on those topics that I haven't already.
The Phoenixian
The Glacier Witch
- Location
- My own little world
Right, had to take a break: lack of sleep and need to work do not a sane and sensible Phoenixian make.
But as long as I made that mess, I might as well see if I can dredge something out of it. (sorry about inciting the mess with Mortifer, Lost Deviljho)
--------------
So what actually happened last post is that NSMS pinged my suspicions. This isn't some highly analyzed process, just a matter of intuition. So as a result I decided I'd craft an argument and see what came of it. Connecting NSMS and Dirk is half for the sake of me being pinged and testing to see if something's there, but mostly because I was just plain having a good time.
What can I say, I enjoy making convoluted theories... and... gunning for a dozen possibilities at once... Yeah... that post was kinda seeping pure unchecked Id.
Actually tracing my thoughts back however, the suspicions of NSMS appear to come a little bit from NSMS's propensity for moving hither and yon on the votes a lot during day one (Which could easily be nothing, I was... more than a little rusty) and a bit from the latter log analysis. Anything tying NSMS to Dirk, is basically based off of that one, singular, post guessing at a possible scum!Nanimani and its proximity to Dirk93. Their explanation of "I'm trying to examine things from multiple angles" fits the facts much better.
The "crafting a narrative together" bit was, in retrospect, silly. ( Dammit loopy-tired me :/ )
But that that whole mess aside, there is a bit of analysis here that might be useful. Interesting at least.
As for why Ellf would do that, there is in fact a very suspicious thing that Ellf had reason to know at the time, but messed up in his claim: The town isn't green, it's brown(ish). Nevertheless, he claimed that his investigations got green for town and red for scum. (A pretty simple explanation there is that he prepared it earlier, copy-pasted it, and then fixed the name color, but missed the text. Preparation beforehand also fits when him saying "well, maybe I'm the investigator" when first accused.)
And, to be fair, Ellf was right about the latter color. As we all saw when we lynched him.
There's no guarantee that scenario actually happened, but I think it's pretty likely that investigation color was an error on Ellf's part, and it's likewise plausible that he realized his mistake and warned his teammates about said mistake. The author of a work is often the one most sensitive to its contents and implications after all. So there's both the motive and time for Ellf to get his allies to turn on him.
Quoting the claim for easy reference:
Wrote a lot of this before going to bed. Hope it's not too long and spaghetti-ish.
...In retrospect, I was probably a bit loopy and unfortunately deffered the important bit for the conspiracy theorist bits, yes. (I'm only grateful I held myself back from going full TehChron. Thank god.)
But as long as I made that mess, I might as well see if I can dredge something out of it. (sorry about inciting the mess with Mortifer, Lost Deviljho)
--------------
So what actually happened last post is that NSMS pinged my suspicions. This isn't some highly analyzed process, just a matter of intuition. So as a result I decided I'd craft an argument and see what came of it. Connecting NSMS and Dirk is half for the sake of me being pinged and testing to see if something's there, but mostly because I was just plain having a good time.
What can I say, I enjoy making convoluted theories... and... gunning for a dozen possibilities at once... Yeah... that post was kinda seeping pure unchecked Id.
Actually tracing my thoughts back however, the suspicions of NSMS appear to come a little bit from NSMS's propensity for moving hither and yon on the votes a lot during day one (Which could easily be nothing, I was... more than a little rusty) and a bit from the latter log analysis. Anything tying NSMS to Dirk, is basically based off of that one, singular, post guessing at a possible scum!Nanimani and its proximity to Dirk93. Their explanation of "I'm trying to examine things from multiple angles" fits the facts much better.
The "crafting a narrative together" bit was, in retrospect, silly. ( Dammit loopy-tired me :/ )
But that that whole mess aside, there is a bit of analysis here that might be useful. Interesting at least.
Not quite. There's timestamps to consider: Azrael, myself, Khawy, and Pawn Lelouch all voted for Ellf either just after Nanimani dropped the bomb or within an hour of Ellf's roleclaim. In fact, of that group, only Pawn voted after the claim. NSMS's own post, and all those immediately following him, (Atk50, Dirk93, and Joebobjoe, for reference) didn't start chiming in until nine hours later. That's more than enough time for Ellf to coordinate with his team, realize he messed up fatally, and say "Yo, guys, throw me under the bus pronto."
As for why Ellf would do that, there is in fact a very suspicious thing that Ellf had reason to know at the time, but messed up in his claim: The town isn't green, it's brown(ish). Nevertheless, he claimed that his investigations got green for town and red for scum. (A pretty simple explanation there is that he prepared it earlier, copy-pasted it, and then fixed the name color, but missed the text. Preparation beforehand also fits when him saying "well, maybe I'm the investigator" when first accused.)
And, to be fair, Ellf was right about the latter color. As we all saw when we lynched him.
There's no guarantee that scenario actually happened, but I think it's pretty likely that investigation color was an error on Ellf's part, and it's likewise plausible that he realized his mistake and warned his teammates about said mistake. The author of a work is often the one most sensitive to its contents and implications after all. So there's both the motive and time for Ellf to get his allies to turn on him.
Quoting the claim for easy reference:
Wrote a lot of this before going to bed. Hope it's not too long and spaghetti-ish.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
Timezones, work (though not in this case), and general real life business are a thing; if you look at my posts, I don't have any in any thread for about 12 hours before making the post where I voted for Ellf. See here:
And personally, I don't think a lack of posts between just after midnight Sunday morning and just after midday Sunday afternoon is anything odd in terms of delay.
good, good
i'd have felt awkward if people were crowding in on my schtict, thank you
Mortifer
Embrace your inner lunatic. Fun times guaranteed.
- Location
- Under a rock.
*Clears throat*
andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes dont talk to me about percy jackson diomedes diomedes diomdes old hickory lol smartass comment lol gets banned
Am I crowding on your schtick enough yet TehChron?
The Phoenixian
The Glacier Witch
- Location
- My own little world
Perhaps I should have been clearer. I wasn't talking about you delaying here. I was talking about Ellf's actions.Timezones, work (though not in this case), and general real life business are a thing; if you look at my posts, I don't have any in any thread for about 12 hours before making the post where I voted for Ellf. See here:
You can check my posting history myself if you don't believe me/think I might have doctored that pic (which to clarify, is taken from my overall posting history, not just a search of my posts in this thread).
And personally, I don't think a lack of posts between just after midnight Sunday morning and just after midday Sunday afternoon is anything odd in terms of delay.
This isn't a point that you didn't post the moment you got up. This is a point that 1: There was a discrepancy in Ellf's roleclaim and 2: Ellf Had a chance to realize the discrepancy in his roleclaim and post in private to warn his allies. All his allies would have to do is read his message, and could do so even while they were still reading the thread in the American continental morning. (Hell, even Pawn Lelouch could be in that group, if death hadn't vindicated his innocence.)
So uh, congratulations Khawy, your alibi here is the strongest among us.
Legend of Ruina
Growing eyes on the inside
To be fair they were claiming it was solely a matter of Inno/Guilty, so it wouldn't be surprising for it to use a slightly different scheme from faction colors for the precise reason it wasn't technically seeing faction. Still suspicious in retrospect but not an immediate red flag. I just took awhile to actually get to thread and vote myself.Right, had to take a break: lack of sleep and need to work do not a sane and sensible Phoenixian make.
...In retrospect, I was probably a bit loopy and unfortunately deffered the important bit for the conspiracy theorist bits, yes. (I'm only grateful I held myself back from going full TehChron. Thank god.)
But as long as I made that mess, I might as well see if I can dredge something out of it. (sorry about inciting the mess with Mortifer, Lost Deviljho)
--------------
So what actually happened last post is that NSMS pinged my suspicions. This isn't some highly analyzed process, just a matter of intuition. So as a result I decided I'd craft an argument and see what came of it. Connecting NSMS and Dirk is half for the sake of me being pinged and testing to see if something's there, but mostly because I was just plain having a good time.
What can I say, I enjoy making convoluted theories... and... gunning for a dozen possibilities at once... Yeah... that post was kinda seeping pure unchecked Id.
Actually tracing my thoughts back however, the suspicions of NSMS appear to come a little bit from NSMS's propensity for moving hither and yon on the votes a lot during day one (Which could easily be nothing, I was... more than a little rusty) and a bit from the latter log analysis. Anything tying NSMS to Dirk, is basically based off of that one, singular, post guessing at a possible scum!Nanimani and its proximity to Dirk93. Their explanation of "I'm trying to examine things from multiple angles" fits the facts much better.
The "crafting a narrative together" bit was, in retrospect, silly. ( Dammit loopy-tired me :/ )
But that that whole mess aside, there is a bit of analysis here that might be useful. Interesting at least.
Not quite. There's timestamps to consider: Azrael, myself, Khawy, and Pawn Lelouch all voted for Ellf either just after Nanimani dropped the bomb or within an hour of Ellf's roleclaim. In fact, of that group, only Pawn voted after the claim. NSMS's own post, and all those immediately following him, (Atk50, Dirk93, and Joebobjoe, for reference) didn't start chiming in until nine hours later. That's more than enough time for Ellf to coordinate with his team, realize he messed up fatally, and say "Yo, guys, throw me under the bus pronto."
As for why Ellf would do that, there is in fact a very suspicious thing that Ellf had reason to know at the time, but messed up in his claim: The town isn't green, it's brown(ish). Nevertheless, he claimed that his investigations got green for town and red for scum. (A pretty simple explanation there is that he prepared it earlier, copy-pasted it, and then fixed the name color, but missed the text. Preparation beforehand also fits when him saying "well, maybe I'm the investigator" when first accused.)
And, to be fair, Ellf was right about the latter color. As we all saw when we lynched him.
There's no guarantee that scenario actually happened, but I think it's pretty likely that investigation color was an error on Ellf's part, and it's likewise plausible that he realized his mistake and warned his teammates about said mistake. The author of a work is often the one most sensitive to its contents and implications after all. So there's both the motive and time for Ellf to get his allies to turn on him.
not enough IT WAS ME, DIO*Clears throat*
andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes andrew jackson diomedes dont talk to me about percy jackson diomedes diomedes diomdes old hickory lol smartass comment lol gets banned
Am I crowding on your schtick enough yet TehChron?
And I SWEAR I'LL WORK ON STANDING PROUD AGAIN SOMEDAY
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
- Pronouns
- Any
While this is... interesting, I don't really think we can lay suspicion on a group for voting scum.
I like the updating sign, I wonder how that got set up?
Bailey Matutine
(Verified Pooka)
- Location
- Pelican Town
- Pronouns
- They/Them
How about voting scum in a suspicious way while doing other things that make you think they're scum?
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
No offense, but that's an incredibly weak argument. By that logic, ANY vote made for Ellf after Nani outed him is suspicious, which makes it borderline worthless as a way of finding scum.
Do you honestly find a clearly joke vote for you suspicious? I mean, just look at the reasoning I gave for voting for you:
Does that look like I was taking that at all seriously, or actually voting for you as anything other than day one randomness?
Bailey Matutine
(Verified Pooka)
- Location
- Pelican Town
- Pronouns
- They/Them
Voting somebody for being too serious day one, after which Bahn, now confirmed as scum joined your vote, and Ellf, also confirmed as scum encouraged people (successfully in the case of MrEgret) to join your vote without doing so himself?
Yeah, sure, not suspicious in the least.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
'For being too serious'... does the concept of a joke honestly elude you? I mean, look at my first vote that day and tell me that I was taking who I was voting for seriously in any way.
As for the Bahn and Ellf thing, (a) they're from different factions, so according to your logic them both going after the same person as me would mean I'm a member of both factions
rolleyes, (b) starting a bandwagon on day one is not in the best interests of werewolves, as it's too obvious and open a position to take, so latching onto other existing votes is very common, and (c) do you honestly think that werewolves would bother colluding on random votes day one?
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
To clarify: I was voting pretty much as whims and jokes took me. Your answer as too why people weren't posting much was common sense and straight forward, and therefore appealed to those whims, so I voted for you.
- Location
- Central Standard Time
Oops?people said:
I'm not sure if I should claim or not. On one hand, target. On the other, not-verifiable claim... so far. I can set up verification, but a nice, clear target would be nice.
people switching to Dirk said:
Okay. I guess I won't be lynched?
[X] Null
TehChron?
Me?
Tired oh-god-why O'Clock thoughts: Color and Flavor.
So far, we've seen three colors (Orange, Blue, and Red) and four flavors (Slaughtered, Savaged, Bludgeoned, and Poisoned).
Red appears to be a hostile faction. I mean, red. He also tried to bolt, so there's that too. Thus, red is probably the anti-town faction. Given the enhanced strength, I'd guess that he's a maf bulletproof or strongman, or both. Alternatively, Ellf was a werewolf. That would also fit the extra strength. I'm not sure if there's a werewolf faction, however. The lack of a Savaged kill lends credence to this... but if there is another werewolf, cultist, or vampire, we may have to deal with a third, if they have a conversion ability. This is worrying. I'll need to take a look at Ellf's interactions to narrow down possibilities.
Bahn was Slaughtered in the street near his home. This suggests a serial killer or mafia. I doubt that a vigilante/hunter would have the slaughtered flavor, especially in conjunction with the shotgun flavor, so I think that this was the action of a standard a cult. Thus, there's probably
Slaughtered makes me think of a ritual kill, or a hunter. Whoever's doing the slaughtering apparently hates heads, as Bahn was both shot and beheaded, and DexTraxWex had his skull split. And given that the slaughterer apparently has a gun, beheading Bahn seems extraneous. Thus, I think it's probable that a cult exists.
But how do you know that they're werewolves?As for the Bahn and Ellf thing, (a) they're from different factions, so according to your logic them both going after the same person as me would mean I'm a member of both factions
And @Bailey, how do you know that Bahn is a cult member?
The three people painting accusations are all from the voting bloc that I identified earlier. A quick search for "Bahn" shows that since the start of D3, NSMS, Khawy, and Bailey are the only people that have been accusing Bahn.
Screw it. I probably won't be able to make any more posts before the day ends, but take this.
[X] NSMS
- Location
- Central Standard Time
I need to stop sleeping at 3-4-5 AM.
[X] Hang NSMS
I'm probably going to get killed for this, but I think this needs to be said.
Bailey Matutine
(Verified Pooka)
- Location
- Pelican Town
- Pronouns
- They/Them
This didn't ping me.
I don't know what Bahn is but I know from his death reveal color he isn't town.
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
I use werewolves as a shorthand for 'evil, wants to kill town', the same way others use scum or mafia, since I was first introduced to the game concept via it being called (and featuring) Werewolf.Oops?
I'm not sure if I should claim or not. On one hand, target. On the other, not-verifiable claim... so far. I can set up verification, but a nice, clear target would be nice.
Okay. I guess I won't be lynched?
[X] Null
TehChron?
Me?
Tired oh-god-why O'Clock thoughts: Color and Flavor.
So far, we've seen three colors (Orange, Blue, and Red) and four flavors (Slaughtered, Savaged, Bludgeoned, and Poisoned).
Red appears to be a hostile faction. I mean, red. He also tried to bolt, so there's that too. Thus, red is probably the anti-town faction. Given the enhanced strength, I'd guess that he's a maf bulletproof or strongman, or both. Alternatively, Ellf was a werewolf. That would also fit the extra strength. I'm not sure if there's a werewolf faction, however. The lack of a Savaged kill lends credence to this... but if there is another werewolf, cultist, or vampire, we may have to deal with a third, if they have a conversion ability. This is worrying. I'll need to take a look at Ellf's interactions to narrow down possibilities.
Bahn was Slaughtered in the street near his home. This suggests a serial killer or mafia. I doubt that a vigilante/hunter would have the slaughtered flavor, especially in conjunction with the shotgun flavor, so I think that this was the action of a standard a cult. Thus, there's probably
Slaughtered makes me think of a ritual kill, or a hunter. Whoever's doing the slaughtering apparently hates heads, as Bahn was both shot and beheaded, and DexTraxWex had his skull split. And given that the slaughterer apparently has a gun, beheading Bahn seems extraneous. Thus, I think it's probable that a cult exists.
But how do you know that they're werewolves?
And @Bailey, how do you know that Bahn is a cult member?
The three people painting accusations are all from the voting bloc that I identified earlier. A quick search for "Bahn" shows that since the start of D3, NSMS, Khawy, and Bailey are the only people that have been accusing Bahn.
Screw it. I probably won't be able to make any more posts before the day ends, but take this.
[] NSMS
NSMS
Probably evil, unfortunately.
- Location
- A rapidly widening tear in the fabric of reality
Oh, and as I side note: my posts should show that I actually at first assumed Bahn was a Mason. It's only after someone else someone brought up the possibility of him being evil that I considered it. My first post after that night: