Her Rangers scythe the enemy's shelter with their muskets. Poor, lifeless things, but a necessary evil for this harvest. If only they would close the distance, though. Angraiand wants to feel their blood on her teeth.
[] Plan No interceptions please
-[X] Infantry
-[X] 200th Hob: 3*Melee 20th Dwa [84% for 100+ casualties, 1 check melee, 1 disadv. casulties, 1 rout?; 70% for routing, guarantueed with the 16th Hal shotf]
-[X] 251st Hob: Charge 8th Elv Hsr, 2*Melee [2 morale checks from charge + melee, adj rout, routing is virtually guarantueed]
-[X] 16th Half: 2*Fire at Nym Rng [routing guarantueed due to 19 stress], Fire at 20th Dwa -[X] 72nd Hum: Fire 3x 28th Artillery
-[X] 148th Hum: Move W, NW, Brace facing NW
-[X] 42nd Elv: Move 2 Hex Northwest
-[X] 45th Elv: 3*Charge 15th Dwa [ambush, charge -> 2 morale checks; pins unit down and benefits from momentum next turn]
-[X] Cavalry
-[X] Guillory's Hussars: Charge 9th Elv Hsr position direclty out of the Rotholz or east of the hill range and run them down
-[X] 55th Elv Hsr: Charge 14th Elven Artillery(2 AP), Move through the plains west of the Räuberholz as far north as possible
-[X] Artillery
-[X] 31st Elv Art: Fire at 8th Elv Hsr, Brace
-[X] 84th Elv Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 10th Hum Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 5th Hob H Art: Move 2*NE, Move E, Fire at HM 1st Elv Hsr
-[X] HQ: 3* Move, 2 SE
New version of my plan im thinking about. I gave up on the full charge cause i didnt realise there were that many ready actions that are still dangerous. We shoot the artillery not exactly cause i think we need to kill them, we shoot them hoping for 3 momentum and a morale roll to the hussars. I am assuming destroying a unit triggers a morale check like routing them.
The 148th stops the 1st hussars from actually reaching the 55th with an interception charge, leaving them sitting somewhere at the start of their turn.
The biggest danger in this plan is that the 1st hussars suicides into the 10th artillery, which endangers grangers life, but im not sure if we can actually prevent that without exposing ourseles somewhere else. The hobs need to kill the units right there sitting on top of us and the 55th cant actually prevent the charge, only hurt them im pretty sure.
Am i correct in my assumption that destroying a unit will cause a morale check like routing them would?
If a unit has the ready action Charge if something moves in 500m, Move back into your initial position; if they run out of movement before hitting the charge, would they continue charging even if they are unable to return or abort the charge and start running back?
AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.
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Calc with the horse artillery, 70% chance to kill.
The horse artillery increases destruction chance by 20%... That's worth it for sure no? A morale roll with disadvantage on the 1st hussars and 3 momentum are really strong.
The 148th can get a long range shot off too, is that better than slowing down the 1st hussars? It's -50 tho, the 148th is only Trained
I'm assuming the 17th is sitting on the hill southeast of where the horse artillery is marked, bracing, ready fire, ready charging cavalry and the horse artillery is one w of the position they went missing.
That means the 55th could still charge the horse artillery if it eats the interception from the 17th, right?
I made 4 charts, the first one counts casualties on both sides, and a estimate for what they might look like after the battle (assuming a loss won't tilt the odds). The other 3 calculated casualties caused by artillery, stress caused by artillery, and how much eached artillery fired.
For stress, I just directly took the stress caused directly by artillery, not factoring in morale checks caused by stacking casualties unless caused by artillery or routs (which I noted separately, which does mean the chart probably somewhat underestimates the stress impact of Trotha's artillery on Turn 4, because I didn't count the stresscontribution arty caused towards 150+ casualties on the 13th Lancers, though I did note it as helped contribute to a rout.
14 Stress
1 Rout (Help from 108th)
1 Rout (Help from 72nd)
13 Stress
Help contribute to 1 Rout
(13th)
Total
47 Stress
1 Rout (Help from 108th)
1 Rout (Help from 72nd)
21 Stress
Help contribute to 1 Rout (13th)
Artillery Use
Our Artillery Use
Enemy Artillery Use
Turn 1
0
0
Turn 2
1 Fire
3 Fires
Turn 3
2 Fires
1 Ready Fire Trigger
2 Fires
Turn 4
4 Fires
6 Fires
Total
8 Fires
11 Fires
The interesting thing I would like to note is how much effective our artillery was in terms of generating casualties and stress generation. Our artillery generated a total 351 casualties, 47 Stress, and 2 Routs with come help from other units. Trotha's artillery has generated 262 casualties, 21 Stress, and help contributed to the rout of the 13th with some assistance from the 8th.
This is notable because Trotha has 6 artillery pieces and a horse artillery compared to our 3 artillery pieces and a horse artillery, meaning 3 artillery piece advantage over us. For COs, we have an offensive genius, while Trotha also has an offensive genius and 2 feared COs.
Part of the gap has to do with us moving to regain ambush on one of our field arty units, the 31st. That got us 3 stress, and a little help in routing a unit. And also the better terrain/distance modifiers we had. But Trotha has 3 more field arty units, and overall better COs.
If we compare the 4th Turn, we do a bit worse in terms of casualties dealt by artillery and a bit better in terms of stress gain/routing units. So Trotha can match us in damage dealt, however, on the 3rd/2nd turns, we do 148 casualties/33 Stress as compared to Trotha's 36 casualties and 8 stress. And I think the key here is that Trotha didn't have his artillery fire that much more compared to us.
Trotha had his artillery fire 11 times so far. We had our artillery fire 8 times. On turn 2/3, 4 of Trotha's artillery shots were against the 148th. The 148th took 29 casualties, 1 stress. If we don't count those 4 shots, which basically didn't do any damage, Trotha had 7 effective shots, if we remove these three shots below, which also didn't do much, then Trotha basically only had 4 good shots.
At turn 2 and onwards, if we expect arty units to fire on every turn. Then that's 12 fires from us, and 21 from Trotha. If we divide that from the fires we actually did, then we get what I call "fire efficiency". Basically, how efficient is your artillery compared to if they fired every turn, and if we remove Trotha's artillery attacks which didn't do much, which I'll call "effective fire efficiency" then his fire efficiency is really bad. For us, maybe only the 84th fire against the routed 33rd Dwa was the only ineffective fire from us.
8/12=~66.67% fire efficiency for us
7/12=~58.33% effective fire efficiency for us
11/21=~52.38% fire efficiency for Trotha
7/21=~33.33% effective fire efficiency for Trotha when just subtracting the 148th fires
4/21=~19.05% effective fire efficiency for Trotha when subtracting his arty attacks which didn't do much.
TLDR: The biggest problem Trotha has with his artillery is that they didn't fire a lot and most of those fires weren't really effective. And we fired our artillery much more and they all did at least some damage. So the negative modifiers from distance/terrain and a lack of effective fires made Trotha's artillery much less effective than it could have been.
I think the overall lesson to take away from this, is to generally not rely on readyfire for most of your artillery attacks. Your enemy can see if your artillery have fired, so they're generally aware that you have readyfire set up and they can then take action to just avoid triggering the readyfire. Cover/terrain is pretty key, since it allowed our infantry at Rotholz to not be destroyed by Trotha's artillery, and thus we can move the infantry there up safely with basically no fear of enemy readyfire.
AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.
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Anydice says 84%
I hate this, are we really confident that von Trotha wont suicide the 1st hussars to destroy our artillery corps?
We cant shoot the enemy artillery with the 5th cause then the 31st dwarves can charge the 5th and von Trotha has shown that he really doesnt care about the 31st that much. They probably wouldnt kill the 5th with a charge (roll -20 on attack, but its advantage, so 20 death average maybe) and artillery losing people doesnt really matter that much, wiping them out loses 5 xp, but i think thats incredbile meta, in reality getting our horse artillery charged surely is a problem right?
And all of our current plans leave the 1st hussars free to hit our artillery 3 times if they waned to and are ready to give up their lifes...
Are they willing to give up their lifes to screw over Raka Durand, the killer of the king?
I am not. I will write out a longer, more comprehensive analysis after work, but I worry about the 1st doing a all-out attacking charge as well. I think we should keep the 55th back in a conservative position to protect our artillery, but I am not quite sure how to achieve that.
I was also considering pulling the 148th back to reinforce the center (Move, Move, Brace). But I am not sure if that would actually help
(feedback for @Photomajig: I really think increasing the cost of Disengaging for cavalry would be a good change. While the 148th can be moved to the center to stand in front of our cannons, the enemy cavalry only needs to pay 2 movement to run past them, which does feel odd. Blocking cavalry with infantry remains a bit too difficult to my taste.)
I am not. I will write out a longer, more comprehensive analysis after work, but I worry about the 1st doing a all-out attacking charge as well. I think we should keep the 55th back in a conservative position to protect our artillery, but I am not quite sure how to achieve that.
I was also considering pulling the 148th back to reinforce the center (Move, Move, Brace). But I am not sure if that would actually help
(feedback for @Photomajig: I really think increasing the cost of Disengaging for cavalry would be a good change. While the 148th can be moved to the center to stand in front of our cannons, the enemy cavalry only needs to pay 2 movement to run past them, which does feel odd. Blocking cavalry with infantry remains a bit too difficult to my taste.)
The king is alive, so fortunately they are not likely to be quite that fanatically angry at us.
The better way to block them with the 148th is w, NW, brace, so they have to pay the cost twice, but that's still not enough to have much effect.
I guess they do not have the same expectations when it comes to the future of the republic as us. When we sent the letters back we saw it as signing the death warrant of the king, but to them we are just a traitorous general who messed with the king.
Hmm, I wonder what you do when the elven monarch revives after the execution? Execute until it sticks?
Hmm, how many advantages could we achieve with artillery ready fires? I think we can get 8 momentum with the 55th destroying the horse artillery(destroying the 27th isn't included, cause that would just make the whole threat void)
von Trotha sending the royalist hussars against our artillery is possible but not super likely IMO. The tradeoff there is something like '1-2 artillery destroyed in exchange for X units captured that wouldn't be if he screened/routed our cavalry instead' - I think (depending on what we do exactly and how things turn out) he has decent odds of routing one of Guillory's hussars in the next turn or 2 with flanking/charge morale checks, and also just drawing a lot of attention from the rest of the army by forcing us to chase those hussars off. And captures are better than kills. 'I killed 50 Elven gunners, most of whom probably came back' doesn't really buy much goodwill in the after action report
Still probably worth guarding against though, I don't think it'd cost much in the way of actions.
I do really like the idea of making Disengage a separate 1 AP action again. That'd do a lot to control cavalry mobility (makes Braced infantry a real barrier and interceptions charge-stopping), though I'm still kinda attached to the idea of cutting their base MP down too.
Ah yeah, good point. That is sort of a weird effect of the momentum system, huh. Retreating is made even harder if the enemy's got a significant buildup of momentum because your screening units can't deal enough stress to cause routs and will themselves break very quickly.
[x] Plan Kill
-[X] Infantry
-[X] 200th Hob: 3*Melee 20th Dwa [84% for 100+ casualties, 1 check melee, 1 disadv. casulties, 1 rout?; 70% for routing, guarantueed with the 16th Hal shotf]
-[X] 251st Hob: Charge 8th Elv Hsr, 2*Melee [2 morale checks from charge + melee, adj rout, routing is virtually guarantueed]
-[X] 16th Half: 2*Fire at Nym Rng [routing guarantueed due to 19 stress], Fire at 20th Dwa -[X] 72nd Hum: Fire 3x 28th Artillery
-[X] 148th Hum: Move W, Ready Fire at 1st hussars if we are flanking them, Ready Fire at 31st dwarves if we are flanking them
-[X] 42nd Elv: Move 2 Hex Northwest
-[X] 45th Elv: 3*Charge 15th Dwa [ambush, charge -> 2 morale checks; pins unit down and benefits from momentum next turn]
-[X] Cavalry
-[X] Guillory's Hussars: Charge 9th Elv Hsr position direclty out of the Rotholz or east of the hill range and run them down
-[X] 55th Elv Hsr: Charge 14th Elven Horse Artillery(2 AP), walking past the 17th even if they are braced, melee 14th horse artillery
-[X] Artillery
-[X] 31st Elv Art: Ready Fire at Charging enemy who past the line 400m north of us, Brace
-[X] 84th Elv Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 10th Hum Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 5th Hob H Art: Move MW, W, Fire at 28th Artillery
-[X] HQ: 3* Move, 2 SE
Alright, I think this plan should work for maximum chance to avoid an enemy charge while also dealing damage?
We get 9 momentum this turn from:
4 from destroying 14th elv horse artillery (cavalry charge+melee should be more than 50 damage i hope)
2 from routing the Nymphs
1 from routing 20th Dwa
1 from routing 8th elven hussar
1 from routing 9th elven hussar
we have a 70% chance to destroy the 28th artillery, which renders everything useless cause then we just win (4 extra momentum, morale roll on hussar and dwarves)
If we dont, then any charging enemy will get hit by a flanking shot from the 148th and likely take 51 damage from that shot in combination with the 31st ready fire, which would give us 2 morale roll at 9 momentum to rout them.
Its not 100% to stop a charge, but i dont think its possible, cavalry screening still mostly relies on having the threat of damage, which doesnt work against a suicidal enemy
[x] Plan Kill
-[X] Infantry
-[X] 200th Hob: 3*Melee 20th Dwa [84% for 100+ casualties, 1 check melee, 1 disadv. casulties, 1 rout?; 70% for routing, guarantueed with the 16th Hal shotf]
-[X] 251st Hob: Charge 8th Elv Hsr, 2*Melee [2 morale checks from charge + melee, adj rout, routing is virtually guarantueed]
-[X] 16th Half: 2*Fire at Nym Rng [routing guarantueed due to 19 stress], Fire at 20th Dwa -[X] 72nd Hum: Fire 3x 28th Artillery
-[X] 148th Hum: Move W, Ready Fire at 1st hussars if we are flanking them, Ready Fire at 31st dwarves if we are flanking them
-[X] 42nd Elv: Move 2 Hex Northwest
-[X] 45th Elv: 3*Charge 15th Dwa [ambush, charge -> 2 morale checks; pins unit down and benefits from momentum next turn]
-[X] Cavalry
-[X] Guillory's Hussars: Charge 9th Elv Hsr position direclty out of the Rotholz or east of the hill range and run them down
-[X] 55th Elv Hsr: Charge 14th Elven Horse Artillery(2 AP), walking past the 17th even if they are braced, melee 14th horse artillery
-[X] Artillery
-[X] 31st Elv Art: Ready Fire at Charging enemy who past the line 400m north of us, Brace
-[X] 84th Elv Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 10th Hum Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
-[X] 5th Hob H Art: Move MW, W, Fire at 28th Artillery
-[X] HQ: 3* Move, 2 SE
Alright, I think this plan should work for maximum chance to avoid an enemy charge while also dealing damage?
We get 9 momentum this turn from:
4 from destroying 14th elv horse artillery (cavalry charge+melee should be more than 50 damage i hope)
2 from routing the Nymphs
1 from routing 20th Dwa
1 from routing 8th elven hussar
1 from routing 9th elven hussar
we have a 70% chance to destroy the 28th artillery, which renders everything useless cause then we just win (4 extra momentum, morale roll on hussar and dwarves)
If we dont, then any charging enemy will get hit by a flanking shot from the 148th and likely take 51 damage from that shot in combination with the 31st ready fire, which would give us 2 morale roll at 9 momentum to rout them.
Its not 100% to stop a charge, but i dont think its possible, cavalry screening still mostly relies on having the threat of damage, which doesnt work against a suicidal enemy
[x] Plan Kill
- [x] Infantry
- [x] 200th Hob: 3*Melee 20th Dwa [84% for 100+ casualties, 1 check melee, 1 disadv. casulties, 1 rout?; 70% for routing, guarantueed with the 16th Hal shotf]
- [x] 251st Hob: Charge 8th Elv Hsr, 2*Melee [2 morale checks from charge + melee, adj rout, routing is virtually guarantueed]
- [x] 16th Half: 2*Fire at Nym Rng [routing guarantueed due to 19 stress], Fire at 20th Dwa -[X] 72nd Hum: Fire 3x 28th Artillery -[X] 148th Hum: Move W, Ready Fire at 1st hussars if we are flanking them, Ready Fire at 31st dwarves if we are flanking them -[X] 42nd Elv: Move 2 Hex Northwest
- [x] 45th Elv: 3*Charge 15th Dwa [ambush, charge -> 2 morale checks; pins unit down and benefits from momentum next turn]
- [x] Cavalry
- [x] Guillory's Hussars: Charge 9th Elv Hsr position direclty out of the Rotholz or east of the hill range and run them down -[X] 55th Elv Hsr: Charge 14th Elven Horse Artillery(2 AP), walking past the 17th even if they are braced, disengage 1 hex away, then charge 14th elven horse artillery again
- [x] Artillery
- [x] 31st Elv Art: Ready Fire at Charging enemy who past the line 400m north of us, Brace
- [x] 84th Elv Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
- [x] 10th Hum Art: Fire at 31st Dwa, Brace
- [x] 5th Hob H Art: Move MW, W, Fire at 28th Artillery
- [x] HQ: 3* Move, 2 SE
I really don't like the idea of charging the enemy Horse Artillery anyway. We don't actually know for certain its location, and we've seen quite clearly that one of the key advantages of horse artillery is how fast it can move. Trying to charge the horse artillery is likely to result in our hussars hitting nothing but air.
I really don't like the idea of charging the enemy Horse Artillery anyway. We don't actually know for certain its location, and we've seen quite clearly that one of the key advantages of horse artillery is how fast it can move. Trying to charge the horse artillery is likely to result in our hussars hitting nothing but air.
We still have to worry about the 17th Human being in that general area though and in a position to intercept a charge.
The Horse Artillery will have to run through the center of the map to escape unless it wants to get dragged down through the forest. I'd much rather we have the 55th in a position to defend the 10th Human Artillery against a last-ditch charge. An Offensive Genius CO on Human Artillerists is priceless, and even if the risk of losing them is low, so long as it's not 0 I want to make sure they're defended.
We still have to worry about the 17th Human being in that general area though and in a position to intercept a charge.
The Horse Artillery will have to run through the center of the map to escape unless it wants to get dragged down through the forest. I'd much rather we have the 55th in a position to defend the 10th Human Artillery against a last-ditch charge. An Offensive Genius CO on Human Artillerists is priceless, and even if the risk of losing them is low, so long as it's not 0 I want to make sure they're defended.
I don't particularly care whether their horse arty escapes or not compared to how much I care for making sure that the 10th Human Artillery that's already taken some major damage due to us underestimating how much von Trotha was willing to gamble doesn't get destroyed along with their irreplaceable Offensive Genius Artillery CO. Offensive Geniuses are a once every 20 COs and one for artillery combined with the fast-learning of humans worth far more to me than a dead enemy horse artillery unit. Especially if the chance of us actually killing them is less than 50% even if everything else goes right.
