I think the numbers are that the morale checks from "in melee" and "adjacent friendly routing" were said to guarantee a rout (though I'm not familiar enough with the new morale mechanics to confirm.)
Calcs, Even assuming the highest roll, the next morale check has only a 90% chance to rout. If we get a 4 or less, then we always rout, and that has a 96% chance of occur. I think we can actually bump those numbers up by having the first action be a single melee attack on the 74th, and then we switch to attacking the 155th depending when melee morale check triggers.
I feel like I've seen this story before...Vechia said:
Yes, it's you! I recognize you!Vechia said:
Boiarsko said:
Boiarsko said:
Have a few Russian friends who said that during this era it was customary to have a funeral for anyone who was conscripted, because you sure weren't ever seeing each other again.
Hmm. Is there any significant cost to just having 3x attacks on each of the enemy Elven regiments in terms of changes to morale checks?
Probably not, but calcing for the damage, 3 attacks on each is actually not really that worse in terms of casualties dealt. So, I think we're better off being safe and do 3 attacks on each.
You have to specify direction of ready fire for infantry, and it would be good to specify facing for the 16th a well. In addition, the 16th Half Pfd is very exposed, calcs. There's a decent chance the nymphs move SW, and just bypass the 19th Ready Fire.
What calcs are there for retaliation for this by the H.M. 1st Hussars on their turn? This is the main part of the plan that I'm leery on. You've made the case that we can rout the 9th Sonneck Hussars, but I'm less convinced that it will be worth while if the emigre Hussars retaliate, especially since I could see von Trotha viewing the 108th routing on our left flank meaning he can send a cavalry unit from that flank of the battle to help drive off Guillory.
Probably around 130 casualties, 95.35% to have 100+ casualties, 23.13% to do 150+ casualties.
That calc is done assuming mean rolls. But what if we subtract 2 stress from the mean roll every time we lose stress (not factoring that for final roll to calc final moral check rout odds)(and with 1 momentum gain from the 9th routing).
The 16th will take damage no matter what we do, if the Nymphs chase them. However, in my plan they are kind of used like bait: if the nymphs attack them as you describe here, we can damage them in turn on our next turn.
Just to confirm, this will absolutely rout them, right? Your plan involves trading one unit of Guillory's hussars fpr potentially both his cavalry?
Some thoughts: First of all, I am unsure that we can actually give Guillory commands this precise and complicated. A visualization would also help immensely here, since it is hard to track which route you intend Guillory to take. Generally, I am worried that this plan will be ruined by the 1sts Ready Action: it may not be where you expect it to be if it moves as well.
Wait a second. @Photomajig , really important question: is the change to Momentum applied at the end of the current round or immediately as a unit routs? In other words, will we spend our entire next turn at -1 Momentum or will Momentum increase in our favor immediately as enemy units are routed?
Ok, thank you. It would be good to spell this out a bit more clearly in the info-post under the Momentum-tab. I think in this case there was a misunderstanding of this that does affect planmaking, which is of course very understandable since it is a new rule.
@EagerListener does not this mean many of your calcs are made with a faulty Momentum value? Based on the discussion, it seemed to me you were assuming Momentum changes are applied immediately when we rout enemy troops? Since all enemy Morale Checks this turn will be done with -1 Momentum (so in their favor), it seems to me that your calcs may be overestimating the odds of enemy units Routing significantly? Or am I the one who has misunderstood your assumptions?
Can you show on the map how this charge would work? Because I do not see how we can get there in 2 turns without taking massive risks?
This requires the enemy 28th, 30th and 31st to have routed, otherwise they can intercept the 72nd. Artillery ready fire can also rout the 72nd during their charge, and if they do survive they also have to survive the enemy turn. Guillory's Hussars having free reign to go after the enemy artillery requires us to rout both the enemy 9th and 1st, and for the two missing enemy cavalry to interfere. There are a lots of assumptions made in our favor here.
