Wait, I am unfamiliar with anydice.com, but:
does not "lowest of 1d100" mean disadvantage was not applied? Should it not be lowest of 2d100?
Army of Liberty: a Fantasy Revolutionary Warfare Quest
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Red Rationalist
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They did nothing due to being disorganized. I can't say with certainty what they are going to do, but I think there is a good chance of them moving NE alongside the 14th, in an attempt to withdraw from their position.
I did calculate this via anydice, but I can explain the reason for the lower chance. The damage on the 100th is hard-capped, any roll lower than 44 will just not result in damage due to penalties [-40 to ranged]. By comparison, shooting at the 14th just has a lower chance to deal damage, but the damage output is greater. Rolling 2 dice above 50 is unlikely [25%], but certainly possible. You only need to roll 2 dice above 30 to deal damage to them [70%*70% = 47%]. The chance for any damage is roughly the same, but the chance for that roll to really matter via crits or high rolls is way higher.
If we were discussing routing via artillery, you would be correct. But in this case, I also have a cavalry order to charge the dwarves, who will rout them unless the enemy rolls 10 cohesion damage via artillery + dwarven ready fire [which they have a 7.7% for, none if the dwarven artillery gets evacuated and doesn't actually fire or does something else due to maverick]. By comparison, shooting the Jäg directly increases the chance of routing them with the cavalry charge, which I desire more than routing the dwarves. The chance of doing damage is comparable, but the damage against the 100th is overkill, resulting in a 92.8% chance for that not mattering.
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Oops, yeah it does, sorry I'm on my phone
AnyDice
AnyDice is an advanced dice probability calculator, available online. It is created with roleplaying games in mind.
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These results make more sense too, advantages are worth around a modifier of 17
Shooting the dwarves and charging the halflings would definitely be higher damage output
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As pointed out by @NSchwerte , why not switch it around to charge the halflings and shoot the dwarves? Charging deals much more damage to the halflings than shooting, so the chance to rout them is greater. It also comes with the added advantage that if we get lucky with the artillery shot on the dwarves, we can completely avoid taking their Ready Fire with our cavalry on the way in.
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Two issues with that. If the 14th moves away, which we expect them to do, the 108th can't charge them (4 tiles between them = 8 movement, plus you need to pay the movement cost for the tile you're charging into [8+2 = 10, > 9]). Secondly, it would cause the 108th to miss out on the hill, which is really good defensive terrain and makes them almost immune to being shot. Believe me, if I had the option to charge the 14th with both cavalry units, I would seriously consider it.
No, which is why I didn't put the charge in my plan.
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You make a very good point with the hill, and I am tempted to go with your plan. However, I still feel like I would like to be more conservative with our cavalry. Shooting the dwarves has a 50% chance of eliminating the risk that our cavalry takes significant damage from the dwarves on the hill, which would help preserve them as a useful unit on subsequent turns. This might matter in the long run, and there is always the risk that this retreat was a feint and some of the halfling units stand their ground and shoot too.
I also don't think it is "wasted" damage to charge an already routed unit. Damage is damage, especially in this situation where we just want to cause maximum casualties on the enemy.
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Yeah, they can. Assuming the dwarves move out of the hill (NE), we could shoot and rout them with artillery quite reliably. Assuming the enemy isn't in full retreat mode by then, of course.
There isn't really a long run, I expect the enemy to stop shooting after the upcoming turn. The enemy line is something like 2 turns of movement away from a full retreat, and prolonging the fight even further isn't going to give Wachenheim anything beyond more attrition, at a time when his line is already quite mauled and our infantry mostly intact.
Wasted in the sense that this shot could be used to rout the Jägers, who are the unit that is more difficult to rout. I'm considering the damage the 108th could take as a necessary risk.
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Red Rationalist
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Well, might as well start the vote.
-[X] Draft Plan Cunning and Elan
-[X] 200th Hobgoblin Fusiliers Regiment: Move E
-[X] 72nd Human Regiment of Foot: Fire at 102nd Dwarves [small chance of routing via crits]
-[X] 148th Human Regiment of Foot: REST
-[X] 42nd Elven Regiment of Foot: [go last] Move east
-[X] 45th Elven Regiment of Foot: Move NE [By Ael, get into cover before you're getting your unit killed]
-[X] 16th Halfling Light Regiment: [go before cavalry and 42nd] MOVE E, Then NE
-[X] 251st Hobgoblin Fusiliers Regiment: Move NE
-[X] 19th Halfling Pathfinders Regiment: Rapid Move E, Fire at 14th Half Jäg
-[X] 28th Halfling Pathfinders Regiment: REST
-[X] 55th Elven Hussars Regiment: Charge 14th Half Jäg
-[X] 108th Elven Hussars Regiment: Charge E, E, E, E
-[X] 13th Hobgoblin Lancers Regiment: Move NE, NE
-[X] 84th Elven Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X] 31st Elven Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X]10th Human Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X] 5th Hobgoblin Horse Artillery Battery: Fire at 90th Elv
-[X] HQ: Resupply 31st
Short Explanation: 'm committing to cavalry charge, plus a feint that attempts to distract the enemy artillery (the 71st, if all goes well]. I'm hoping that with a decisive cavalry charge, the enemy army looses their nerves and devolves into an unorganized retreat, hopefully allowing us to capture the dwarven volunteers and Jäger units.
-[X] Draft Plan Cunning and Elan
-[X] 200th Hobgoblin Fusiliers Regiment: Move E
-[X] 72nd Human Regiment of Foot: Fire at 102nd Dwarves [small chance of routing via crits]
-[X] 148th Human Regiment of Foot: REST
-[X] 42nd Elven Regiment of Foot: [go last] Move east
-[X] 45th Elven Regiment of Foot: Move NE [By Ael, get into cover before you're getting your unit killed]
-[X] 16th Halfling Light Regiment: [go before cavalry and 42nd] MOVE E, Then NE
-[X] 251st Hobgoblin Fusiliers Regiment: Move NE
-[X] 19th Halfling Pathfinders Regiment: Rapid Move E, Fire at 14th Half Jäg
-[X] 28th Halfling Pathfinders Regiment: REST
-[X] 55th Elven Hussars Regiment: Charge 14th Half Jäg
-[X] 108th Elven Hussars Regiment: Charge E, E, E, E
-[X] 13th Hobgoblin Lancers Regiment: Move NE, NE
-[X] 84th Elven Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X] 31st Elven Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X]10th Human Artillery Battery: Fire at 14th Half. Jäg
-[X] 5th Hobgoblin Horse Artillery Battery: Fire at 90th Elv
-[X] HQ: Resupply 31st
Short Explanation: 'm committing to cavalry charge, plus a feint that attempts to distract the enemy artillery (the 71st, if all goes well]. I'm hoping that with a decisive cavalry charge, the enemy army looses their nerves and devolves into an unorganized retreat, hopefully allowing us to capture the dwarven volunteers and Jäger units.
Damage tables for key scenarios:
- Dwa Vol Art vs. 108th: 58% for 2, 47% for 3
- 61st vs 45th: 57% for 3, 46% for 4.
- 75th vs either 55 or 16th: 57% for 3, 46% for 4.
- Damage to 14th ["softening them for the charge"]: 70% for 6, 61% for 7
- Charge against the 14th: 52% for 5, 33% for 6 -> Depending on how the 100th is moved, the unit might only require 10 rather than 11 cohesion damage for a rout, due to adjacency. All in all, we still have a rather decent 65% for routing them, hopefully collapsing the enemy line in the critical moment.
Alright, might as well get on with making a plan. The key question raised is whether to attempt a charge with the cavalry. They are quite mauled, but also have a high chance of recovering casulties due to the elves + cav combo. Charging now might allow us to maul the 14th and use the routing of the 100th dwarves to our advantage, considering that their routing could likely disorganize units as they are currently getting to safety. The key question involved is what the 75th does. Shooting at the 45th does make sense, but so does ready fire against a cavalry charge. A general retreat also makes sense, considering the units can't be pulled back much further and Wachenheim might mistakenly believe in our infantry charge and doesn't want to wait 4 turns for the 20th to safely get in proximity to the street.
If I were in Wachenheim's shoes, I would direct fire at the 45th with the 61st and possibly the 90th. I would probably start moving the the dwarven volunteer artillery out trying to prevent them from being left behind, since I value Jägers less than artillery parity. The 75th goes on ready fire, trying to repulse a cavalry charge.
With this in mind, I have a suggestion to make. I would move the 16th one east first, attempting to trigger enemy ready fire. The cavalry charges, trying to bring some kind of resolution to the miserable affair and trigger a general enemy rout. The 200th is moved east, allowing them to move into the woods in the likely scenario of the 45th being routed and freeing the way for the 45th to retreat to the small riverside church for a rout, where they disrupt our lines less. 72nd shoots against the 102nd dwarves, reducing their strength further. Our field artillery corps shoots at the 14th, attempting to make the rout for the cavalry easier. If we are lucky, I might trigger a small rout cascade, where the rout of the 14th triggers a rout of the 100th, which hopefully makes the planned retreat into a panicked one by severely damaging the morale of the 14th hum. Horse artillery shoots at the 90th elves, further routing units and undermining the morale of the 177th; plus interfering further by having another routed unit running around. Outside of that, the just some minor reorganization of our formation.
If I were in Wachenheim's shoes, I would direct fire at the 45th with the 61st and possibly the 90th. I would probably start moving the the dwarven volunteer artillery out trying to prevent them from being left behind, since I value Jägers less than artillery parity. The 75th goes on ready fire, trying to repulse a cavalry charge.
With this in mind, I have a suggestion to make. I would move the 16th one east first, attempting to trigger enemy ready fire. The cavalry charges, trying to bring some kind of resolution to the miserable affair and trigger a general enemy rout. The 200th is moved east, allowing them to move into the woods in the likely scenario of the 45th being routed and freeing the way for the 45th to retreat to the small riverside church for a rout, where they disrupt our lines less. 72nd shoots against the 102nd dwarves, reducing their strength further. Our field artillery corps shoots at the 14th, attempting to make the rout for the cavalry easier. If we are lucky, I might trigger a small rout cascade, where the rout of the 14th triggers a rout of the 100th, which hopefully makes the planned retreat into a panicked one by severely damaging the morale of the 14th hum. Horse artillery shoots at the 90th elves, further routing units and undermining the morale of the 177th; plus interfering further by having another routed unit running around. Outside of that, the just some minor reorganization of our formation.
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I have finished Chapter 27: Leipzig of the book Napoleon: A Life, and am now at Chapter 28: Defiance
If you haven't read Napoleon: A Life, I highly recommend it.
One common criticism of people who praise Napoleon is apparently rooted in this belief that dictators cannot ever possibly do anything good and must always, always be bad-evil-terrible. So if you praise anything, anything at all, that a dictator has done in the dictator's entire life, then you must have "taken leave of your senses."
My opinion of this:
Yes, Napoleon was an authoritarian dictator. I don't think there is any denying that.
But with that said...he was weird. Dictators aren't supposed to give their people more rights.
(looks at Raka Durand) Hm. She has made it clear - in public at least - that she is completely against the monarchy, even the idea of a constitutional one, and is a firm Republican.
In any organization, not just military, you have to grant some measure of autonomy and freedom-of-action to your subordinates. Otherwise everyone will be waiting for information to pass up the chain to you, for you to consider it and make a decision, and then pass information back down the chain to them.
(looks at the Eastern Front in WW2) That is (argued and debated) actually one of the cases where a political leader being willing to let the military commanders act as they wish backfired horribly; the German generals wanted to focus on the Moscow axis/Army Group Center while Hitler's priority was on Ukrainian food and Caucasus oil.
Now I'm imagining something similar happening in this story; a political leader flying into a rage at one of his/her generals for fighting a tactical battle at a settlement instead of pivoting south to seize critically needed resources for the country's economy.
Superior tactics may win battles, but production and economies are what wins wars.
"What difference does that make, sir, to a gentleman?"
"I'm afraid it's going to make a great deal of difference to a great many gentlemen, sir."
Now I'm curious about the economies of the countries in this story.
Imagine if your artillerymen manage to detonate an ammunition wagon.
Danger close...
This was some amazing work by the 5th.
Jesus Christ...
"To cannon, all men are equal."
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Makes me think of the Kleber who fought in Egypt and Syria and was eventually assassinated in Cairo.
Never, ever underestimate the enemy.
This is less likely to happen the longer this story goes on; Durand's enemies would begin to respect her more and become more wary of her.
And not just the enemies in other countries, but in her own...
Surprise attack. Hobgoblins for their size can be quite skilled at remaining undetected. They aren't all brute force.
And now I'm imagining hobgoblins with British accents ala SAS/OSS operatives.
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I mean, did he? A lot of the things he codified were already theoretical rights before him (as a result of the revolution), and then you have things like re-invading Haiti in order to re-establish slavery.
Similarly, nobody's rural economic practices were ideal, but that doesn't make Napoleon's kinda shrugging and going along with how things had shaken out a good thing.
(Honestly, we REALLY need to help the Left-Levelers/etc get at least a partial win here.)
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My take on Napoleon is that he did pragmatic things to strengthen himself and his state, a lot of which coincidentally happened to be good for the people OF his state. There have been more than a few dictators like that, especially notable ones in the 19th century when a number of people decided to impose liberal enlightenment ideals because it meant they could replace the ancien regime.
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I think the thing is, you kinda have to look at him in context. A lot of Napoleon's reforms were kinda, "Settling." Like the middle ground between the grand revolutionary promises that had ultimately been crushed or failed by circumstances and the Ancien Regime that nobody wanted to go back to. They look startlingly magnanimous only if you ignore the context... by which they're basically centrist-y pragmatism and cynicism.
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Isn't that how every revolution ends up, though?I think the thing is, you kinda have to look at him in context. A lot of Napoleon's reforms were kinda, "Settling." Like the middle ground between the grand revolutionary promises that had ultimately been crushed or failed by circumstances and the Ancien Regime that nobody wanted to go back to. They look startlingly magnanimous only if you ignore the context... by which they're basically centrist-y pragmatism and cynicism.
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I would also add that command was far more decentralized prior to the advent of radio and mass communication. It's hard enough to control a unit when they are in sight, it's basically impossible to micromanage the action of three different armies several dozen kilometres apart. Once we reach a sufficient rank, we will also have to account for the personalities of army commanders and won't just fight that everpresent enemy, past turn thread. But for now, we plan our own battles, for better or worse.
A very correct distinction, though the in-quest economies are still predominantly rural and regional, rather than industrial, specialized and nationally interconnected. While factories and urban centres matter, I think we should approach it more in terms of certain valuable goods flowing and controlling trade routes. The strategic-economic dimension was one Napoleon never really mastered, with him winning battle after battle in the campaign, but never winning the (economic/ strategic) war against England. Hopefully we will do better against Ivernia.
Yeah, the fifth is pretty terrifying once they get into position. Artillery can repulse cavalry charge, the issue is just one of catching them before they are to close.
Yeah, that is the down side of renown - people will start putting effort into defeating you.
Not hard to be stealthy in a forest, but that is a decent comparison. Special forces tend to be quite fairly skilled in close quarter combat, plus a lot more drilled and experienced than the bulk of the army. This does mirror their high experience, plus their offensive potential. If we ever get around to forming a proper offensive unit combination, treating the hobs like special forces isn't a bad idea.
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Also, I'm not letting the new infopost on doctrine escape without my opinion. @Photomajig, you can run but can't hide from the world-building nerds of the thread .
My notes on doctrine.
The firebreak idea between humans is theoretically sound, though our army currently has way to high morale for that to matter. Loosing 4 cohesion doesn't really matter when you have 18 to spare, so might be worth a consideration for an army that is riding less of an absolute victory high than ours. Somewhat of a topic if we ever form a broad, 3-4 wide offensive column.
Now I also really understand why poor Wachenheim was so confused this battle. An Arnese hobgoblin who doesn't charge, despite attacking in the rain? He's stuck trying to comprehend the particular "superior firepower" and "await the charge" brainworms of the thread all alone.
Aside from that, I sure hope we haven't solely fought the second-rate provincials this entire time. On the bright side, the offensive potential of their true elite is limited, if you're forces require drill for superiority, they can't be easily replaced. The battles will get harder once the actual creme arrives.
.My notes on doctrine.
As we are seeing currently, battles without a decisive charge drag on without really ending. Getting the initiative is good, there is value to an aggressive style of combat and trying to pick your terrain carefully makes sense. I would say the doctrine does correctly emphasize a charge as a deciding element, but the summary does seem to lean into "charging for the sake of having a charge", where having a deciding moment is put over the chances of winning. This is a potential issue, defending and holding a forward position is also valid. The doctrine depends on the sufficient shock to shatter the enemy, which isn't alway possible.
Morale is good, but I think the revolution is really neglecting drill. Good operational movement between combat can decide battles before they have begun, as the current combat shows. Neglecting drill and good movement is going to cause issues, especially if we want to teach others our defeat in detail strategy.
The firebreak idea between humans is theoretically sound, though our army currently has way to high morale for that to matter. Loosing 4 cohesion doesn't really matter when you have 18 to spare, so might be worth a consideration for an army that is riding less of an absolute victory high than ours. Somewhat of a topic if we ever form a broad, 3-4 wide offensive column.
This makes sense for an army that emphasizes zeal rather than drill. Dwarves are decent, but they take high drill to truly shine.
This does seem overly optimistic, especially considering the fight against Norn. A good charge do about 6 or 7 damage, which isn't really enough to disperse well-trained enemies [15-18]. You need firepower in conjunction with that to actually break trough well-drilled lines.
Definitely an improvement, though I'm not sure if there is any advantage to firing on them rather than charging with the first line. Maybe in regard to preventing detection. If we ever get a proper corps of hobs [4-5], I'm fully in favour of adopting the more advanced version. Putting the more offensively valuable part of our army in the second line makes a lot of sense, with them being able to serve as offensive elite units.
Now I also really understand why poor Wachenheim was so confused this battle. An Arnese hobgoblin who doesn't charge, despite attacking in the rain? He's stuck trying to comprehend the particular "superior firepower" and "await the charge" brainworms of the thread all alone.
Yeah, cavalry is somewhat awkward to integrate. We aren't going to use them very effectively in the damned fifth element, so their proper use is relegated for later. I think they are actually decent at preventing enemy movement via readied charges, which can be valueable. Not that good at hitting the front, though the flanks are a different story.
The lack of horse artillery however is just an oversight, you can't get enough of those. Being able to achieve local fire superiority can win battles. The ability of artillery to move alongside is inavaluable. Mobile firepower wins wars.
Some elite units, lots of poorly organized infantry. Might resemble our second battle and vulnerable against baiting them into traps.
Norn does know how to defend, but that doesn't win against an uncooperative enemy (us). Mobile firepower and good positioning seem to work well enough in avoiding a defeat, but they don't really win the battle either if the enemy stays on the defensive. I wonder if there is some way to use the appearance of a charge, something like moving units and making it appear like the charge withdrew. They expect a blind and overconfident charge from us, we might be able to use that against them by tempting them into an ambush.
Aside from that, I sure hope we haven't solely fought the second-rate provincials this entire time. On the bright side, the offensive potential of their true elite is limited, if you're forces require drill for superiority, they can't be easily replaced. The battles will get harder once the actual creme arrives.
A strong strategic enemy, but weak operationally and tactically. I'm curious how amphibious combat actually works out mechanically. Aside from that, they do have a weakness: Naval hegemony means lots of colonies, which means lots of disgruntled people a nation with good doctrine and a developed arms industry could support in rebelling. This could work out well if we have the levellers in government, who can actually deal with locals like equals. I need more concrete information, but maybe we can attempt a sort of actual domino strategy, where we support anti-colonial uprisings as much as possible, with the attempt to create a runaway reaction where one colonial rebellion demands more resources and manpower, making other colonial rebellions worse and increasing unrest via greater exploitation to fill the deficit, which causes more uprisings and so on. I don't know if the conditions are there, but I think the strategy might work. Probably a better idea than trying to make the entire continent embargo Ivernia, or trying to win the naval battle against the global naval hegemon.
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Would it be better to have the 19th Pathfinders fire on the 14th Jaegers instead of hiding? They'd be within Medium Range after the Rapid move and since they're Hidden right now, they should have an Advantage from Ambush to work against the normal issues with firing at Halflings. Especially since the chance of routing is "only" ~65%, so another volley might be worth something there to help guarantee they're broken.
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Red Rationalist
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Hmm, this is viable. I'm going to note that they can't actually use their free movement as a rapid one due to the 16th having to move out of the way, so the 14th can get out of medium range if they move E. On the other hand, I expect them to move NE. There is an issue with the 19th ending up in medium range for the 61st, but the increased chances and additional experience are still worth it.
Good catch!
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I agree, although as noted I think the first line should be elves, due to them regnerating losses after a won battle. On a campaign level, that does add up. A good army composition could be: elven 1st line to soak up damage, Hobgoblin 2nd line to charge, humans on the flanks, halfling skirmishers, elven and hobgoblin cavalry and any non-elven unit as artillery.
This does make me slightly worried that Wahhenheim might be baiting our charge. The only thing he has really done is pull his units back a step, and now we are all planning on charging with most of our cavalry. How big a disaster would it be for us if, against expectations, his halflings stand their ground and Ready Fire our cavalry? Could he break our charge?
Another idea: why not shoot the enemy 90th with the 45th instead of moving NE? We are already shooting them with the 5th artillery, and I think they were at something like 6-9 Cohesion? If I have not calculated wrong, this means there is a small but not insignificant chance to actually rout the 90th as well, with good rolls.
In any case, having the 45th do some guaranteed damage instead of moving would be good, since I expect them to be routed this turn. If they rout, moving them now does nothing useful.
In any case, having the 45th do some guaranteed damage instead of moving would be good, since I expect them to be routed this turn. If they rout, moving them now does nothing useful.
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Doesn't really do anything. The 20th are committed to moving, so the only units able to use ready fire against cavs are the 100th, and the 14th. I have already addressed the dwarves and their fairly low damage before, but the 14th isn't going to do much. Since the 55th is a defensive genius, they have a 67% for 2 cohesion damage, 46% for 3, at cost of a nearly guaranteed rout. Plus, the units need to be moved out of the battlefield, which would be delayed even more when the army is already trying to retreat.
That would be great, if the 45th didn't charge this turn while being out of ammunition.
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Goddammit, de Sangeaux. *shakes fist*
Can the 72nd resupply the 45th and thus allow them to shoot this turn? If not, there is not really anything better than having them head for the woods.
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Yeah, but that means the 72nd doesn't get to shoot, plus the 45th can only shoot after being resupplied. Net loss in my opinion, considering the shot on the 14th is more important, the 45th might be routed and they might not obey our orders to stay still anyway.
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