Arch-Demon's Eternal Game: Aeon Edition, The Turtle Chronicles

@Scia how close are we likely to LyLo? I know this is pretty complicated with firestarters and all, but what's your gut feel on it?
My own opinion here is it's... complicated. Firestarters are an issue, but there is also the confounding factor of two competing scum teams - it isn't truly LyLo until there is only one team left. Otherwise they can mutually wipe.
 
My own opinion here is it's... complicated. Firestarters are an issue, but there is also the confounding factor of two competing scum teams - it isn't truly LyLo until there is only one team left. Otherwise they can mutually wipe.
And we don't 100% know they have both FS. A townie might have grabbed one of them or even both of them, and wisely be keeping it under their hats. I really hope so.
 
Ok, even being in danger of getting hit by a comic from Pawn again. I'm always one of the more quiet posters. I only start to post more if I am sure of someone being scum or if I am in a discussion with someone. Especially in the earlier days (we are still only at D3). Would be very nice if someone that played with me for a few more games could verify that.
Can verify that Tykan is usually a bit of a quiet poster.
Nope, it's wine that I didn't list the Staff as a pick. You know, unlike you I threw this list up after the point of picking.

Does everybody else seriously list their true pick as one of their first picks in such a post? I have to write this down if I should ever play scum in a Archdemon game again. That makes itemhunting definitely easy.
- Before someone tries to twist that, yes, I already was scum in one, last game.
Except that you listed items that made you a target. So the 'wine' you're claiming here is... kinda pointless? It didn't protect you, it didn't protect your item, hell, if any of the Fiends had noticed your claim then you should have gotten your stuff ganked. Since, y'know, it was an explicit claim of having the Firestarter to anyone who saw that you didn't take the Herald.

And even if they didn't know that you had passed on the Herald... The Herald is also a pretty good item to steal from you? So... I don't believe you when you claim Wine, because the Wine was 100% pointless?
Yes, I could take the Hell's Herald. Using the Herald is more useful in scumhunting and has the inherent danger of outing town PRs. Given my two last games, were I a) made a major misplay, fell for a scum suggestion, almost provided a scum win and delievered a wonderful distraction for two? days and had in general not a single correct scumguess except the one blatantly obvious one AND b) I made TWO misplays with unneccessary buddying my fellow gnome resulting in him sussing me and casting a vote that resulted in the voted voting me, turning into my death and additionally more or less outing two of my scum mates. I think it's not completely out of question that I didn't have much trust in my ability to play good and identify scum correctly. So I don't out a town PR.
So that might be why you decided not to take the Herald... But why say that you would then?

I'm sorry, I just don't believe it. I think you just forgot about saying what you would have taken and tried to go for the 'Towny' item or something safe in case you got spotted visited people.
I probably won't be here for EoD and my attendance today is likely to be spotty, so I want to go ahead and make my argument for why we should actually carry through with an inactivity vote today instead of just threatening one. I don't like being the heavy and taking someone to task. I almost didn't post those and just let it slide, but that isn't fair to people actually playing the game.

This is the last of a string of posts Thursday where Reliable refuses to defend themself and pretty much states a disinterest in playing the game at all. They get a reprieve from the use of the Herald and a promise to actual contribute, after having been prodded by Happerry who asks for a write up on Scia or Shadell. This is their reply:

That was four and a half days ago. Reliable has been on SV as late as ten hours ago.

After another poke, we get this:

That was almost 60 hours ago, near start of day. We've heard nothing since and are now sub 12 hours till EoD.

Reliable is getting by by just floating under the radar being forgotten and that isn't how the game is played. I don't know if they are scum or not because I can't know, because they have contributed nothing. But if we permit this style of "play" then we open the door to lots of future games where town eats itself while scum don't post. Reliable has 19 posts total since the restart, all of them are short, many of them lack content, and the longer ones are justifications for why they haven't bothered defending their town reads, including themself.

I don't think we can let this stand just because they are hitting the literal minimum to avoid a modkill. If it was a single effort post or they hadn't been on line I might feel differently, but we got a one line promise of material that hasn't been forthcoming. I know there is no scum read (or any read) on Reliable, but I think we need to act to make sure that surviving without playing isn't an option in these games. Even if they are on your scum team, this isn't something we should allow. Even if they are town, I'm ready to vote them out.
Honestly, I'd be with you if I wasn't scared of the Firestarter. I'm pretty sure that Tykan has it and just lied about his pick because he thought it'd look more towny.

It's annoying, but from where I am looking we might just be in LyLo depending on who got doused. Can't really afford to gamble on Reliable when Tykan is caught in a lie without purpose.
One thing I want to point out here is that according to @Nictis, if Tykan was town he'd have to have a firestarter. So in Nictis' town!Tykan!world Nictis would have just outed the towny with the unignited firestarter. Unless all the fiend steal were accounted for and I missed it, I do not feel great about this play.
*Shrugs*
Night Three, honestly would feel fine if Fiends decided to spent a night action stealing it from him tonight. It'd cut an action for the night and they'd have an unused firestarter but not a whole lot of time to make use of it.

Plus I figured it was important to jump on that when Tykan started acting like Cyricubed might have had the firestarter when it seemed obvious that Shalmoa did.
One thing I'm going to point out here that I didn't see anyone else do is that IIRC @mesonoxian said that his two top scumreads besides Nictis flipped elf and human last night. That was Cyricubed and either Shadell or OriginalName. If it was Shadell, then his two top scumreads were both in Shalmoa's list of demonreads. I don't like that.
tbf, he pretty explicitly said that he was suspecting I just panicked and decided to Herald Shalmoa because Shalmoa mentioned both me and my two Demon buddies. Which is... An interesting argument yeah, but this could be an extension of the hyperfocus he's had on me. You see how his scumread immediately moved from them to you at the start of the Day?

Probably scummy, but I honestly can't tell the difference from his hyper-focus on me and playing it up.
I don't think scum picks Two World Telehat. I mean it's a misplay for town to but it's a misplay I see town making, and not scum.
I could see a Fiend picking it up in lack of better choices, since they can essentially use it as a free item to try and find a potential Demon. OTOH, he could have snagged an Owl mask or the Herald regardless of alignment.
Of course this is assuming reliable actually took the telehat and didn't just look at the math I had already posted at that point to make an obviously-true claim to distract from things. That doesn't seem like their MO so far, though.
They did also claim that someone was not Possessed/Fiendish before you did that. Tykan I believe.
A quick look at the possible builds with a fiendish orc greatly limits the value of a telehat for the fiends, due to their only being exactly one slot with both a possessed orc and a fiendish one.
Fair, can't say I've really looked too hard at the spoiled stuff on page 1. I keep getting surprised by items working differently than I remember lol.
Eight or nine, I don't think there are very many rolls for a 16 person game that would make the hate worthwhile for scum, and it almost never seems like a good bet for town. Like the Dueling Rose, it is more cool than useful.
ngl, with the items I was faced with in the sack I might have gone for the Dueling Rose if I was a solo scum. HellBeast or something.
Hmmm, some associations-
I like this.
If Reliable is a Demon, Nictis breaking out the Herald to break up the wagon on them is pretty strongly indicative, I'd think. If they are a Fiend then it doesn't mean much of anything, though.
As long as you're willing to acknowledge that I picked someone who I believed to be on the other scumteam, I'm okay with this. Kinda annoyed if you're saying this and will continue to try and say that I just got lucky in hitting Shalmoa.
 
@Scia how close are we likely to LyLo? I know this is pretty complicated with firestarters and all, but what's your gut feel on it?
Worst case scenario, we're already screwed and will lose regardless of if we lynch scum or not.

It goes from there to scum having doused each other's kill targets to scum having doused each other in terms of where we might be at. So we could either be doing great or we could be getting railed tonight. Hard to say.

We knock one of the teams down to a single member and we have much better odds of knocking out a nightkill/ignition.
 
As long as you're willing to acknowledge that I picked someone who I believed to be on the other scumteam, I'm okay with this. Kinda annoyed if you're saying this and will continue to try and say that I just got lucky in hitting Shalmoa.
I just mean that if Reliable were a fiend it wouldn't indicate anything about your alignment. You wouldn't out Shalmoa to save Reliable if you were all on team Fiend. And since we know already that you're not a fiend, that doesn't show anything, as it is compatible with Town!Nictis and Demon!Nictis.

If Reliable were a Demon, that would be a lot more interesting, since it leaves open the idea you acted primarily to save a team mate, and would create a plausible reason for using the Herald right then. Swooping in to nail a Fiend and save a Demon is still compatible with Town!Nictis, but it makes Demon!Nictis look way more probable.

If Reliable is Town, that is about equivalent to Fiend. It is compatible with either Town or Demon reads on you.

I didn't feel like your grounds for using the Herald when you did were solid enough to take the risk, but we went over and over that, and I can't fault your results.

But while I am making the case for an infokill on Reliable, mostly I just really don't like the idea of letting someone who isn't playing coast to Day 4 for strictly metaa-reasons.
 
I am debating to confess _where_ I was in in the item chain and to mention what items where still around, or at least if some spezific ones like the firestarters where or where not.
But I am unsure how much that is info bleed to help scum.
 
Honestly, I'd be with you if I wasn't scared of the Firestarter. I'm pretty sure that Tykan has it and just lied about his pick because he thought it'd look more towny.

I don't think Firestarter would still be around for pick 9. Given the number of picks fiends got I think it's overwhelmingly likely they got at least one pick early enough to grab a firestarter, but I don't think 9 would have been early enough. I think pick 9 staff of life is believable, although given his stated preferences probably scum indicative.

One thing I'm wrestling with is that while I think Reliable_2IC is likely town, I really don't want to be going into LyLo with him, unless he really steps it up. Like he just wouldn't post, and then we'd either have to work on the assumption that he's clear (which I'm not very comfortable making) or lynch him and likely lose.
 
I don't think Firestarter would still be around for pick 9. Given the number of picks fiends got I think it's overwhelmingly likely they got at least one pick early enough to grab a firestarter, but I don't think 9 would have been early enough. I think pick 9 staff of life is believable, although given his stated preferences probably scum indicative.
Scum get multiple picks. One of his picks might have been 9th, but I think he just decided to claim the 'safe' item.
 
Hrrm...
Derpclear? *frowns* I...I can see that but at the same time it strikes me as too risky. Especially given what I've seen of Meso's play in the past. Audacious, and if he IS pulling that off I'm gonna meme vote him D1 anytime he's availble, moon-faced trickster that he is...
Do you mean the Fiendish Orc mistake?...*checks*...HRRRM....Except...
You guys keep using 'Survivor' to think of Elves, Orcs, Gnomes and Dwarfs...Except that's not really right, as I see it?
It's more like...
True Town=Human. Numerous, but vanilla.
Elves&Gnomes=Fiend Town. Can work with Demons.
Dwarves&Orcs=Demon Town. Can work with Fiends.
Because of that overlap, I figure neither side is safe until one of the two Scum teams are eliminated.
Simmilarly, I internallized the whole 'Fiends have three items, Demons have two' rule but it's easy to forget that the fiendish/possessed varients have one less draw.

The trouble with derpclears, or at least with ME persecuting derpclears, is that I've been kind of pissing off more then a few town by either bad wording, intents that rub people the wrong way, or just asking stupid questions that are far more info then I should be asking for. It's like me going after someone for that could easily turn into someone getting ME lynched.

That said, I DO find that suspicious, and while my read of Nictis so far has been human (he sounded a tad too focused on that Herald, versus the idea of him having secret Role powers of some kind)...But Meso is Meso, and that inability of me to read him isn't necessarily the same as him being guilty. Just means I can't trust him.

Still not sure, slight increase in suspicion towards Meso but also realize I'm probably a tad compromised in that direction anyhow.
 
As for Reliable...Kind of suspicious, except he's never been really trying to play in a way that makes me think he regretted getting into this game to begin with, sooo...
 
On a note , to say something about sack content and the timeline basing myself on @Tykan I can say that at that time there where still 3 coins present, but no firestarter, the rope that has been mentioned to be in use was also still in the sack at that time .
There where no shards left
 
Thats important because we know that :
Shalmoa had picked the shard talisman already
Original name had picked their Amulet with a shard
Someone else had picked the other shardisman
Mystic cage was missing. (shard item)
Firestarter 1
Firestarter 2
That are 6 picks that are secure to have been happend before tykan

Fiends don't have the other blue shard with a talisman, because it would make more sense to take the regular one I think so that they get a quick topic with a possible 3pp? After all we know that Shalmoa had no choice for a second pic
BUUUUT!!!
Look at the fiend ability
"Each Fiend receives three shots at the Sack, in a random order. Unlike Demons, you do not know where you are in the order until the Sack passes to you. "
That means unless I am stupid that they had to make a grab with what they personally considered the most usefull for themself or most likely the team and could not hope that another team members was close enough to get it.

But I consider it likely that the fiend belined early enough for the firestarter that when it was Shalmoas turn there was none left. So they either already had what they wanted or took a gamble with the quicktopic.
But that does not prevent the demons from taking one as they don't know if the fiends at the other one.

We got 11 (town+3pp) +7 [(2x3 fiends) +1 (fiendish ork)]+ 4 (2x2 demon) picks if I saw that right?
22 picks

I think that means that there where 2 fiendpicks before shalmoa as I think there are more usefull choices for them then the talisman on a strongman ork?
So I consider it likely that fiends at least have one, possibly both Firestarter because when their ork came they did not pick it with him, and they did not knew when their next turn would be..
If they have one they might have aimed at Shalmoa stealing the firestarter from a team member also has the steal , at least if I am not stupid lacks IFF?


Side not I think someone else claimed the blue shard and that yun said something about the position of them?
 
I think that means that there where 2 fiendpicks before shalmoa as I think there are more usefull choices for them then the talisman on a strongman ork?
So I consider it likely that fiends at least have one, possibly both Firestarter because when their ork came they did not pick it with him, and they did not knew when their next turn would be..
If they have one they might have aimed at Shalmoa stealing the firestarter from a team member also has the steal , at least if I am not stupid lacks IFF?
As an FYI, the Fiendish Orc gets to pick two items, they only have to leave one item on their corpse when they die. So the Talisman was the less valuable of their picks.
 
As an FYI, the Fiendish Orc gets to pick two items, they only have to leave one item on their corpse when they die. So the Talisman was the less valuable of their picks.

It could theoretically have been Shalmoa's first pick but less situationally useful when he died, particularly if the fiends had some way to secure their remaining members against night kills.

Also IIRC, @Zaealix has claimed the other talisman with shard, and @Yun claimed first pick ancient mirror.
 
That are 6 picks that are secure to have been happend before tykan

Taking that @Zaealix and @Yun's claims into account we have account:

1x Ancient Mirror (picked by Yun)
1x Amulet of Command w/ Red Mirror (picked by OriginalName)
1x Mystic Cage w/ Red Mirror
2x Talisman of Command w/ Blue Mirror (picked by Shalmoa and Zaealix)
2x Firestarter
One unknown item.
 
On a note , to say something about sack content and the timeline basing myself on @Tykan I can say that at that time there where still 3 coins present, but no firestarter, the rope that has been mentioned to be in use was also still in the sack at that time .
There where no shards left
So you are pretty sure the Firestarters were already gone by the pick @Tykan claimed?
 
1x Ancient Mirror (picked by Yun)
1x Amulet of Command w/ Red Mirror (picked by OriginalName)
1x Mystic Cage w/ Red Mirror
2x Talisman of Command w/ Blue Mirror (picked by Shalmoa and Zaealix)
2x Firestarter
One unknown item.

I think it's pretty likely the one unknown item in this list is the Blade of Demon's Bane, although I do not have mechanical information that confirms this.
 
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