Arch-Demon's Eternal Game: Aeon Edition, The Turtle Chronicles
- Thread starter ComiTurtle
- Start date
- Mafia
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- mafia
I think this is a fair representation of what happened.
I think that along with shoving a vote on Nictis and leaving like I stated earlier It's enough that I'd rather go with this than Ondine/Nictis
[X] Vote Tykan
- Location
- United States
Thinking more about it, I don't like no lynching because it essentially takes away one kill made for town reasons. My understanding is that when there is an unlimited vig in mafia, they should kill whoever their top suspect is every night, because even if they kill town it is essentially taking away a mislynch.
Also, if no lynching was actually correct for town, scum could also take no actions, and unless someone picked the two-world telehat and got extremely lucky with it, we would be in the exact same situation. If scum didn't do that, then they're doing so because it's advantageous to them. So no lynching puts us in the same situation or a worse one.
Also, if no lynching was actually correct for town, scum could also take no actions, and unless someone picked the two-world telehat and got extremely lucky with it, we would be in the exact same situation. If scum didn't do that, then they're doing so because it's advantageous to them. So no lynching puts us in the same situation or a worse one.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Vaguely? I'm going to try and do a more thorough review of them if I have time before day end.
Granted re: main wagons but Ori was focusing on things with literally 1 vote, which is not exactly a huge difference.
- Location
- US
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- He/Him
Yeah, ignore my momentary lapse of reason, we should not do a no "No Kill" vote.
As to who we should kill, I am not really happy with any of the wagons. If I had to pick one it would probably be Nictis or Wiadi, but I have negative levels of confidence that either one is the right choice.
As to who we should kill, I am not really happy with any of the wagons. If I had to pick one it would probably be Nictis or Wiadi, but I have negative levels of confidence that either one is the right choice.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
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- Any
Whoops, forgot to answer your earlier question re: What Would Scum Do? (A lifestyle to live by, truly) Will answer that one after.
As for this... ehh? If we assume a high number of scum, then sure. If we assume a low number of scum, then not really. Just as far as the numbers are concerned, there's probably not that big of a difference in scum size? And if there was, that also runs into the issue of there being less Town than normal, so a mistake is more costly while less likely by rand.
It's roughly the same for no lynch as in other games on Day 1, except that we know there are X amount of potential info gathering abilities (ignoring Ent) and X potential Kill Stoppers in play (Ignoring Dwarf). Generally a bad idea but if there's no real suspects available then an option.
Ah, fair point. I hadn't realized it, but I'll admit that I'm not too concerned by him checking Tykan when I personally am suspect of Tykan.
Basing myself of that post in regards to that we are likely to have 6 or 8 scum , 8 to 10 town and that leaves between 5 and 1 neutrals/sks etc
which means that LoL is archived if there are only 4 or 6 town members remaining as the scums also kill each other right? So town LoL is different from game LoL based on that for one of the scum factions.
Now based on night kills if I see that right we have normally a minimum of 2 kills (1 demon 1 fiend) but I am unsure about the max there based on the commentary about the last game.
1 vote is pretty huge when there's this kind of spread at this close to day end.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
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- Any
Off the top of my head, we're looking at somewhere between two kills (Demon+Fiend) to nine kills (Demon, Fiend, 5 Battle Wands, Solo Elf, Helltaker)
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
What bugged me wasn't investigating me & Tykan, it was the reasoning for doing so. If Ori had gone "I think Tykan and/or Wiadi looks sus, I'm gonna dig into that more" it'd be fine but appealing to "oh they have votes on them" takes away responsibility for making that call - and one vote isn't a huge logistical consideration.
Wiadi
Uncompromising Radical Leftist
- Location
- Something Clever
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I suppose that's not entirely unfair. Like I said, might just be jumping at shadows again.
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
Hellbeast, if one exists, can theoretically wipe everyone with an active item or ability + 1 person in a single night. It would just require literally everyone target one person.
That isn't likely, but last game shows just how much damage can be done in that manner.
ondine
Pretty Princess of the Shadow Cabal
- Location
- A helluva town
- Pronouns
- She/her/hers
For all of you who don't love a wagon.. they're two people at most. Vote where you want and within one vote you are literally one vote behind. And besides the best way to see who people are liable to vote for, and who people won't vote for... Is to put some pressure on the system.
I mean , if the numbers are true we have roughly 30% (6 scum) to 50% (8 scum) chance to hit a scum with a lynching and a 50% to 60 % to hit a town member (8 to 10 town).
During the night the scum faction each have a 25 % chance to hit a enemy scum and a 75 to hit a town member if there are 3 members per team, versus a 38ish to 60 for enemy scum /town if there are 4 scums per team.
During the night the scum faction each have a 25 % chance to hit a enemy scum and a 75 to hit a town member if there are 3 members per team, versus a 38ish to 60 for enemy scum /town if there are 4 scums per team.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
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- Any
Half an hour remaining, I'm honestly thinking No Lynch here. I'd vote Tykan if I needed to, but I'm not really feeling any of the lynches right now.
[x] No Lynch
[x] No Lynch
Yeah, but was counting kill sources instead of MAXIMUM DEATHS. Hellbeast is one targeted kill, the others are incidental.
This is a good point btw. I just don't have anyone I particularly want to vote.
- Location
- United States
One other thing is that the "neutrals" in this game aren't true neutrals, since they're enemies with one of the scum factions. So they act like town wrt LYLO for one of the scum factions. Also, unless they can distinguish between the scum factions they are effectively town. Unless they can determine that there is a scum version of their survivor faction in the enemy scum faction, in which case that stops being the case. The survivor race dynamics are really interesting IMO but thirty minutes before day end is not the time to do this so I'm going to stop talking about this.
Would kinda like to bring this up Day 2 when we have time to spare though.
ondine
Pretty Princess of the Shadow Cabal
- Location
- A helluva town
- Pronouns
- She/her/hers
Friends.. I hesitate to say this before I'm misread yet again and told I am not anti mech.. but is this the time to figure out likely percentages of number of kills tonight??? Is this helpful at all to the current situation?
ondine
Pretty Princess of the Shadow Cabal
- Location
- A helluva town
- Pronouns
- She/her/hers
As far as I know he's an actual newbie. And I think there are others with as few posts. And indeed until Z subbed in there was one with fewer. So why them?
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
Honestly this game is one of the oddest to no lynch on D1 on. We have more or less a significantly better chance of hitting scum in this game by sheer chance than we do in any other game, because two scum teams and a higher-than-average % of scum. Probably.
If it helps my thought process was this:
1: I don't want Nictis or Ondine to die today, I don't particularly scum read either of them
2: Votes are super spread and I'm not sure how active people are so my vote has more power than usual in this system
3: I should go through other people who are being voted and ask myself why they are on the list and others aren't
I came to the conclusion that the next people to start with were you and Tykan as you each had a vote a piece.
I actually think better of you because you criticized me for being kinda washy, and you mentioning Tykan in that big list o reads prompted me to go back and verify that was true, then I looked at Tykan asking you about me and wondered to myself why he was sort of gluing himself to you a little - I don't think it was a deliberate pocket (?) but then he just kinda takes you at face value and does his own thing instead of really engaging with it which is why I voted him now.
I guess I couldve like tried something with Byzantine or something but I wanted to boost someone into check that I thought was scummier than Ondine/Nictis so I figured that between my reasoning and the current spread that it was the most decisive action I could take.
But that's just me.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
- Pronouns
- Any
True, but have you considered