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The Long Night Part One: Embers in the Dusk: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k) Complete Sequel Up

Investigate the Sea?

  • Yes

    Votes: 593 80.4%

  • No

    Votes: 145 19.6%
  • Total voters
    738
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Elder Haman said:
1: I still haven't seen a specific suggestion, as in "We should trade Phase Tigers to the Sirens to eat" instead just the vague "We should try something."
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…o_O
Once again either you are lying or you just don't bother reading what other people say. I and others have repeatedly suggested using a trade action to ask the Sirens what animals they would trade for and what they would offer in return.

2: Their doesn't seem to be a lot of support in the player base to try anything until we get a hint that something is a good idea to try. (I might be wrong on this, but it's the impression I get).
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Durin has already stated that animal souls are something we can trade. What we don't know is how much we can get for them or the amount we would need to deliver. Essentially we would just be haggling over price.
 
Angelform said:
…o_O
Once again either you are lying or you just don't bother reading what other people say. I and others have repeatedly suggested using a trade action to ask the Sirens what animals they would trade for and what they would offer in return.

Durin has already stated that animal souls are something we can trade. What we don't know is how much we can get for them or the amount we would need to deliver. Essentially we would just be haggling over price.
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You are correct that @Durin has said we could try, as for the price that is vague beyond no Guardians/weapons.

I think the main issue is that we can try, but we might not get what we want out of it.
 
[X] Plan Elder Haman Turn 90

I want the shiny guns but I'm really iffy about sacrificing the Super-Exitus Rifles for no payoff. What are the chances of success before we run out of guns?
 
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[X] Plan Elder Haman Turn 90

Because I want to finish up some of our archeotech backlog.

I'm concerned by our 'spend time with' julius action not taking place in year one. During turn 89s action, the flavor text was that he expected contact in the year to come and we're making him wait 4 years.
 
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Elder Haman said:
If we are going to propose a joint colonization I really don't see how we can do that in less than a year of diplomacy. Wouldn't we also need to set the terms so that we can actually field a proposal in five years? It certainly isn't a "throw it in" with other issues kind of thing.
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It's more asking if they're interested in the notion rather than making a specific proposal - "Hey, would you possibly be interested in doing a joint colonization?" doesn't take a year of diplomacy.

Elder Haman said:
-Y5: Investigate: Warp Rifts sucking in Chaos Psykers
--DOUBLE DOWN YEAR 5
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...what exactly do you expect Klovis-Ultan to do here? There were warp rifts. Psykers got sucked into them. I'm confused as to why you think Klovis-Ultan is the one to pull this off. Only Ridcully is likely to be able to figure this out.
 
HanEmpire said:
[X] Plan Elder Haman Turn 90

I'm really iffy about sacrificing the Super-Exitus Rifles for no payoff. What are the chances of success before we run out of guns?
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High, we have 79 to work with and lose d6 guns each attempt. Even if we lost the full 6 guns every attempt (and the average will be 3) we'd still have at least 9 tries.

Using just double downs and no Cheating that's... and 85% chance of success before we run out of rifles to test with (and that does not take into account rerolls which would bump it to 98% success chance). THat is nine action years of the mechanicus explorator.

Using Cheating with the double down on the rifles... reaches the same probability at 5 attempts. That's five mechanicus action years and five Telepathica action years...

Using cheating on the Telepathica is about five actions in each as well.

So we'll probably make it easy.

But for the analysis on were best to use the double downs...

Using the estimate of -1% success after all bonuses applied before down downs or cheating (because the after bonus numbers in the post are out of date due to new Tranth bonuses - I'm trusting Reynal's numbers since he's been keeping track), with Ridcully's bonus at +40 for master of divination added to cheating (what it was two turns ago, last time we tried a divination), assuming we roll a 50 on the cheating roll (since that will be the average expected value). These numbers do not include rerolls.

To reach just over 60% probability (before rerolls, ~88% after rerolls) is:

Five mechanicus actions, double down on mechanicus. (65% probability of success by this point)
Four mechanicus actions, one telepathica, all DD on mechanicus (65% probability of success by this point)
Four mechanicus actions, one telepathica, DD on one telepathica and three mechanicus, (64% probability of success by this point)
Four mechanicus actions, two telepathica, all DD on mechanicus (70% probability of success by this point)
Three mechanicus actions, two telepathica, DD on one telepathica and two mechanicus, (65% probability of success by this point)

Hmm... this suggests that the best place to use the double down is on the Rifles and not the Telepathica action, unless we go with three mechanicus and two telepathica.

However, that means trading telepathica actions for mechanicus at a one to one ratio. Not sure that is a good trade. I guess we do end up with more rifles if we left over (as Mechanicus actions are the ones that use up rifles)... Also means using fewer Double Downs... which can impacts the other actions...

Seems like the two best options are probably five mechanicus actions, double down on mechanicus, or four mechanicus actions, one telepathica, all DD on mechanicus.

Unless people want me to aim for a probability different than over 60% (I chose that because that means it's probable we succeeded by that time, and it's slightly risk adverse since it doesn't assume 50%).

Higher probabilities might be reached more efficiently with a double down on telepthica actions early on, but we'd probably succeed before hand.

Going to get some sleep and then reassess in the morning.

@Reynal How certain are you of those bonus numbers?

Leaning now towards putting the double down on the Mechanicus instead, and maybe even forgoing the Cheating entirely...

That could allow doing Destructive Freqs. Though that plays havoc with the double downs... but nothing says we have to do Mechanicus actions consecutively... could do one attempt Mechanicus with double downs, and then switch back back to armor. See if we get lucky, and if we don't just do it next turn.

If we did Destructive Freqs that means we would not do any research into Sun Beetles or Mentoring Beta.

Will rerun the numbers and decide in the morning when not so sleepy.

What are other people's feelings? Please express your opinions on whether you are willing to forgo Cheating entirely or not, and if so what you'd like to spend the Telepathic action on.

Is the main reason people like my plan because if has the Super Exitus Rifles?

Or is it because of the Greater Divination?

Or because of the Mentoring Beta?

If it's the Rifles then I'd lean towards shifting back to Destructive Freq, but if it's the Greater Divination or Mentoring then I can't do that.
 
dragon said:
I'm concerned by our 'spend time with' julius action not taking place in year one. During turn 89s action, the flavor text was that he expected contact in the year to come and we're making him wait 4 years.
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Pretty sure we did that action the last year of the last turn. So making him wait one year...

Enjou said:
It's more asking if they're interested in the notion rather than making a specific proposal - "Hey, would you possibly be interested in doing a joint colonization?" doesn't take a year of diplomacy.



...what exactly do you expect Klovis-Ultan to do here? There were warp rifts. Psykers got sucked into them. I'm confused as to why you think Klovis-Ultan is the one to pull this off. Only Ridcully is likely to be able to figure this out.
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That's my point. What good is just asking if they are interested in the notion. Bids are to be presented at the end of this turn. If we ask if they are interested in the notion, and don't make a proposal, then what's the point?

Klovis-Ultan is an Ordo Malleus Inquisitor. Isn't this exactly the sort of thing he investigates?

I'd ask durin but he doesn't seem to be answering any questions at all this round.
 
Elder Haman said:
Klovis-Ultan is an Ordo Malleus Inquisitor. Isn't this exactly the sort of thing he investigates?
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To an extent. But my question is more along the lines of what exactly you think he can do to investigate it. He'll likely have had his Inquisitorial psykers on the case for the last few years already, but given that this incident involved Tzeentch, an Alpha, several Betas, and possibly Avernus (likely an Alpha-Plus creature) I'm not sure how much the Inquisitorial psykers will be able to help given their best are only a few Gammas who almost certainly aren't Ridcully. Outside of that, I'm not sure what he could possibly do.

I'd ask durin but he doesn't seem to be answering any questions at all this round.
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Not a reason not to ask.

@Durin - Does Klovis-Ultan think he can actually do anything more that he's not already done to investigate the Chaos Psykers being sucked into a warp rift?
 
Alex pears said:
I think the main issue is that we can try, but we might not get what we want out of it.
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We don't get what we want out of a lot of actions.
What we want from researching the Black Crystal [item] it to replicate them. As yet all we have ever managed is figuring out what each piece does.
What we want from Spend Time With [character] actions are stat upgrades and traits, for one character or the other. Very rarely do we get them.
What we want from Diplomatic Relations actions are relations buffs. On average we get them about one in three.

A Siren Trade would be a single Diplomacy action that, at absolute worst, would tell us more about what we can offer in future trades.
 
Angelform said:
What we want from researching the Black Crystal [item] it to replicate them. As yet all we have ever managed is figuring out what each piece does.
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Because they are the most advanced objects we have ever encountered, with the Allegory @Durin uses being cave men with a lightsaber.

Angelform said:
What we want from Spend Time With [character] actions are stat upgrades and traits, for one character or the other. Very rarely do we get them.
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Because most of our characters are already really strong and most of the time we do get some thing out the action every time, the power of FRIENDSHIP!!! :D.

Angelform said:
What we want from Diplomatic Relations actions are relations buffs. On average we get them about one in three.
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Because we've picked all the low hanging fruit and have really high relations with pretty much everyone now.

Angelform said:
A Siren Trade would be a single Diplomacy action that, at absolute worst, would tell us more about what we can offer in future trades.
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Indeed, but people be paranoid, and we've got a ton of other things we have to do as well without adding to the backlog.

I'm fine doing it if it comes up, and want to do it, but with so much interesting stuff to do, people get side tracked.
 
Elder Haman said:
I think this needs to be written in a way that doesn't make as many assumptions. I'll try to include some thing when I post my plan, so please let me know what you think.
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Back on a PC. Will look into it.
Elder Haman said:
Sound Out: Svartalfheim cooperative colonization
Approach Svartalfheim to determine:
1: Is Svartalfheim interested in colonizing one of the captured worlds?
2: If so, would they be open to cooperation with Avernus in the colonization effort?
3: What kind of Advanced Material resources would Avernus be able to get from this colony?
4: What aid would Svartalfheim want from Avernus?

Suggested approach: When approaching Svartalfheim, start from a discussion about the amount of Advanced Material Avernus is importing, and how Avernus has plenty of other resources, but that Advanced and Exotic Materials are the primary resource need for Avernus. So with the discussion on colonies, it seems to Avernus that a colony founded by Svartalfheim is the most likely (and most quickly) to produce significant amounts of Advanced Material. Ask if Svartalfheim is planing to make a bid for one of the captured planets to colonize. If so open a discussion on what Avernus could do to assist, and what Avernus would receive in exchange. If not, instead discuss the situation from the plan of a hypothetical future joint colonization effort.

Suggested plan is that Svartalfheim would be the primary colonizer, with Avernus providing assistance in the colonization effort. In exchange Avernus would get priority access to advanced material produced by the colony, while Svartalfheim gets the raw materials produced (Metal, Promethium). Details to be determined in negotiations. (Rather than try to write something that makes assumptions about the back and forth I think it would be better to depict this discussion as an event that occurs using Rotbart's diplomacy and admin skills, with the resulting deal presented as "the best deal we could get offered" and then let the players decide if they accept the deal or not. So basically we have a list of things we could offer, and things we would like, and then we get back a deal that represents something equitable, perhaps modified by a diplomacy roll or something. Or alternatively three different options, one with high cost and high benefits, one low cost and low benefits, and one medium plan, and then the players choose which one we prefer).

Things Avernus can offer:
Providing the initial self-defense fleet (mandated at 30 Monitors and 1 Defense Cruiser, but we could easily go higher if that is important to the bid).
Responsibility for constructing the required Orbital Defenses
Assistance in the provision of the initial deployed PDF
Creating a colonist militia program
Provision of up to 30 million colonists from Avernus per a year
If Midgard is willing, the funding of raising additional colonists from Midgard
Cargo space sufficient to transport large numbers of colonists and/or construction equipment (up to 200 cargo space)
Provision of Administrative support in construction and development of the colonies infrastructure, resource extraction (both for Metal mining and Promethium drilling), heath services, and educational systems, etc. (We even have a good candidate to lead a new colony Administratum: Prefetus Tertius Isaac Gros).
Military and fortification assistance (we even have a Marshal who is an expert in defense, Tychon Rakes, who we could send to lead the Munitorum on the new colony if they want something like that).
Support in setting up the colony Arbites system

We are not suggesting with this list that Svartalfheim can't do these things themselves, just that these are our areas of expertise that we have, and what we would be best able to help with. If there are other things that Svartalfheim wants from us we would be willing to consider it.

Things Avernus would like:
When the colony begins producing excess Advanced Material that it is included in what is taxed by the colonizer, that Avernus receives priority in getting Advanced and Exotic Material (understood that Svartlafhiem will get the other resources)
When the colony becomes independent and the 100 year trade deal is being negotiated that Avernus receives preference in getting Advanced and Exotic Materials.
Avernus understands that at first there will be little to no Advanced Material being produced early on in the colony, though we would like some goals as to what will be achieved when.
Additionally, Avernus is willing to accept getting no return in the early years (thus not getting Metal, Promethium, or other resources that are produced earlier in the colonization period) in exchange for larger returns in the later years of the colony. (The most extreme example of this would be something like Avernus forgoing any payment during the colony's dependence period, but getting exclusive rights to the 100 year trade deal).

Sound Out: Muspelheim cooperative colonization
Approach Muspelheim to follow up on Champion Surt's hints about sharing technology, but concern about the Mechanicus:

Suggested approach: When approaching Muspelheim, follow up on his concerns about the Mechanicus, and suggest that since colonization was being discussed at the same time you are wondering if this would be a way to kill two birds with one stone. If Avernus and Muspelheim cooperated in colonizing a world it would provide a place for controlled cooperation. Muspelheim would be able to control the release of technology as the colony develops, allowing a more gradual acclimatization. On Avernus' side we could arrange for only the most progressive Mechanicus members to be assigned to the new colony. (This shouldn't be too hard, since Avernus is where all the amazing Dark Age discovers are being made, I'd expect most Mechanicus members would prefer to stay at Avernus. Though I suppose we should double check with Scott first.) We could even agree to no Mechanicus members on the new colony if Muspelheim insists, but argue strongly that getting the Mechanicus onside is an important thing to do, and that we would prefer to make that part of this effort. Additionally, this could help with advanced material shortage that Avernus has been dealing with, as the speed of Mechanicus production expansion is not able to keep up with the rest of Avernus. But if the new colony world is primarily functioning using Muspelheim technology, this would allow the Mechanics to continue focusing their resources on expansion at Avernus.

Suggested plan is that Avernus would be the primary colonizer, with Muspelheim providing assistance in the colonization effort. Muspelheim would get priority access to material and promethium produced by the colony, while Avernus would get future sources of Advanced and Exotic Materials. Details to be determined in negotiations. (Rather than try to write something that makes assumptions about the back and forth I think it would be better to depict this discussion as an event that occurs using Rotbart's diplomacy and admin skills, with the resulting deal presented as "the best deal we could get offered" and then let the players decide if they accept the deal or not. So basically we have a list of things we could offer, and things we would like, and then we get back a deal that represents something equitable, perhaps modified by a diplomacy roll or something. Or alternatively three different options, one with high cost and high benefits, one low cost and low benefits, and one medium plan, and then the players choose which one we prefer).

Primary things we would want from Muspelheim:
Provision of the production technology, with sufficient colonists to support running and expansion of it.
Joint cooperation in establishing the colony education system
Anything else that Muspelheim would like to offer, or thinks they could help with

Avernus would note that similarly to the suggestion with Svartalfheim Avernus will be taking most of the gains in the later years. Assuming we have already negotiated a deal with Svartalfheim, raise this with Surt, and suggest that a joint Avernus/Muspelheim colony be a plan for the next round of expansion, and not the current two available colony planets. If Svartalfheim rejected our offer, suggest we make a bid together this round of expansion.

Sound Out: Asgard Future Knight Titan Production
Approach Asgard about the expansion in the number of Knight Titans they are ordering. Is this expected to continue?
Then broach the topic of Asgard colonizing another world, does this mean that number of Knight Titans needed will increase?

Discuss how Avernus has concerns, because of the deficit of advanced material in the Avernus economy. Currently Avernus is dependent on trade to sustain our Advance Material usage. Right now meeting the needs of Asgard, including the expanded purchase of Knight Titans is not an issue, but if the demand is going to continue increasing Avernus wants to know so that we can make sure to account for that in our plans.

Expansion is already being implemented in the Avernus Mechanicus cities, and we have a backlog of over fifty years of expansion plans. Because of this Avernus does not see much advantage in diverting those Mechanicus resources to colonization of other worlds. It seems that additional increases in production of Advanced Material will need to come from sources outside the Mechanicus. The main worlds that we see being able to potentially do this are Svartalfheim, Muspelheim, and Nilfheim. We have already approached Svartalfheim and Muspleheim about the possibility of a joint colonization effort.

If either Svartalfheim or Muspelheim have responded with approval, discuss with Asgard the upcoming decision on how to divide the current captured worlds. Mention that while have not confirmed it, we expect that Vanaheim will make a bid, and seeing as they gave up colonization of Fjol to make room for the Space Marines, it seems it will be difficult to deny their bid. Is Asgard planing on making a bid this round? If so, discuss whether Asgard would be willing to wait until the next round in 10 to 15 years after we recapture additional worlds from the Orks, and instead support an expansion by Svartalfheim/Avernus or Avernus so as to get a jump start on increasing production of Advanced Material? (Since it is probably going to take quite awhile before the new colonies start producing any). In exchange Avernus can promise a significant commitment to the next campaign (scheduled in five years) to ensure the capture of sufficient planets, and also support for an Asgard bid for a colony in the next round, perhaps even providing some support for the Asgard colony founding (though we'd like some discussion of how Avernite colonists would fit into the society of a new Asgard/Avernus colony since Avernite and Asgard societies are quite different).

Additionally we'd like to bring up questions on how to improve the construction and maintenance of the Knight Titans Avernus has been providing to Asgard. One idea that has been floated is developing a dedicated facility to the construction of Knight Titans, perhaps increasing their quality. What are areas that the Knights of Asgard would like to see improved? Any thoughts on ideas on this issue? The plans for such a facility might also allow the establishment of Knight Titan construction facilities outside of Avernus, ensuring a continued supply to Asgard in the case of Avernus being cut off from the rest of the Trust in a warp storm. Designing and building such a facility will divert some effort away from the expansion plans. What level priority such be put on the effort to create a facility like this?

There was also the idea floated that perhaps some of the Knight construction could benefit from the expertise of those outside the Mechanicus, such as the artisans of Svartalfheim. We have concerns about how the Mechanicus would react to such an idea, but we would like to know Asgard's thoughts about this.

Overall take the tone that we recognize the great service that the Knights of Asgard provide to the Imperial Trust, and so want to make sure that their needs are responded to, and that Avernus is able to serve them effectively as the supplier of Knight Titans.
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I am not sure if your proposals are valid.
Durin said:
Sound Out (Write In Proposal)- Inquisitor Klovis-Ultan has suggested that you sound out the other Governor's about any proposal that you make before the next High Council meeting. While it is rather early to start now it would give you time to attempt to convince people to change their minds before the next High Council meeting.

Time: 1 year.
Chance of Success: 80%

Cost: 144,000 Thrones.
Reward: Gain level of support for proposal and reasons for this for one planet per 10% you succeed by.
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Sound Out always aims at all the planets. All your proposals aim at one planet primarly and not at all. For the colonization you should probaly better use Request Information for only asking one planet.


You informed me that you are sceptical about the wording of the proposal I put foreward. I don't know what assumptions I put into it?
Portec said:
To relaiably provide Asgard with Knight-Titans Avernus plans to build a foundry/factory/workshop focussed for these. Given how complex any sort of titans are and that a long distand goal is the creation of master works any insight given into the topic even if its only remotely connected is apreciated. Concerns and advise equally.
Svartalfheim addition: Opinion of the guilds on setting up a possible artisan workshop is needed. In case of overlap/conflict with the speciality of any guild we will limit the facility of course.
Asgard addition: It is planed to serve as the primary maintainance facility for Knights in system and advise for the correct maintainance and repair of them will help greatly.
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  • It opens with the idea of a plan.
  • It explains a problem
  • It asks if help and/or input can be given
  • It has two special questions
The only assumption it makes is that the facility will in time allows the building of master crafted Knights. The only reason for building it is that in time the focus of the facility will allow that. I will reword it to b more preciese and to remove the parts only aimed at one planet.
To relaiably provide Asgard with Knight-Titans Avernus plans to build a foundry/factory/workshop focussed for these. Given how complex any sort of titans are and that a goal of a specialiced facility is the creation of master crafted works any insight given into the topic even if its only remotely connected is apreciated. Concerns and advise equally.
Avernus respects Svartalfheim's senjority in matters of artisans and will not pursue the idea further should the such a facility be in conflict with the guilds.
It is planed to serve as the primary maintainance facility for Knights in system as well so advise for practical and correct maintainance and repair of them will help greatly as well.
 
Enjou said:
To an extent. But my question is more along the lines of what exactly you think he can do to investigate it. He'll likely have had his Inquisitorial psykers on the case for the last few years already, but given that this incident involved Tzeentch, an Alpha, several Betas, and possibly Avernus (likely an Alpha-Plus creature) I'm not sure how much the Inquisitorial psykers will be able to help given their best are only a few Gammas who almost certainly aren't Ridcully. Outside of that, I'm not sure what he could possibly do.



Not a reason not to ask.

@Durin - Does Klovis-Ultan think he can actually do anything more that he's not already done to investigate the Chaos Psykers being sucked into a warp rift?
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maybe, there are a few ways that he can investigate but there is no certainty that he can find anything out
 
Alex pears said:
Indeed, but people be paranoid, and we've got a ton of other things we have to do as well without adding to the backlog.

I'm fine doing it if it comes up, and want to do it, but with so much interesting stuff to do, people get side tracked.
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Except that it is a diplomacy action. We rarely have anything urgent in diplomacy and often have barely anything productive beyond slowly chipping away at the relations stat.
 
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