There's no replacing of Gwayne, he's literally just being considered for promotion. Did you read the chapter?
And I'm pretty sure that Daemon hearing about what we said, will absolutely care because it is explicitly our own words and influence on our father that would get Gwayne the job. Which is why Otto is asking us for it.
And again, deniable hearsay? Viserys is talking about this shit with Daemon right now, which is why Daemon's guy will get picked. And Viserys has literally no reason not to mention how great Rhaenyra's friendship is with Gwayne.
That's Gwayne, whom Daemon is pushing to remove.With Daemon's return, he's pushed for the interim head of the city watch to be removed,"
But I worry Daemon will push for someone aligned with his interests."
"I can't make Gwayne commander of the City Watch," you argued. "You know I don't have that power."
"You can write a letter to your father explaining how Gwayne has performed his duties in the city watch excellently though," Otto insisted. "And that you believe he would make an excellent fit for commanding the Gold Cloaks. Daemon's not going to allow such a thing of course, but your letter will help prevent Gwayne from being pushed out and ideally keep my son in your father's thoughts when Daemon's pick inevitably screws up."
Gwayne is out as interim commander, that's essentually done and dusted, considering even Otto sees it as inevitable. Otto wants to avoid him being pushed out entirely, and make sure that he's next in line after the inevitable Daemon shenanigans ensure that his pick needs to be replaced.
The conversation now, or letter, both of which would say essentially the same thing, are to sing Gwaynes praises enough to avoid him being completely removed and keep him in Viserys' thoughts. If we write a letter saying that and Daemon gets wind of it, suddenly Gwayne is an obstacle to him. Very different from Viserys asking him to avoid firing Gwayne entirely, which will look like it was at Otto's prompting even if we played a role. It's, at worst, exactly as dangerous as the letter, with a good chance that it can accomplish the same thing while keeping our hands clean (which is why Otto wants it in writing) and keeping Gwayne and ourselves out of danger.
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