Green Flame Rising (Exalted vs Dresden Files)

Yog said:

The similarity is based on worrying about unknown unknowns. The demonstrated enemy capabilities so far, when we consider gods (Iku Turso), denarians (Thorned Namshiel), and speicifcally designed greater war-constructs from hell (the thing with Malfean brass we defeated in Wicked City) do not give us cause for worry. The worry comes, as far as I see, from the assumption that opposition has something wildly out of proportion to what we have seen, such as angelic galaxy busting firepower, that they can deploy about us. My argument is that it's meaningless to consider those - we don't know if they have it, we don't know if they can deploy it, we don't know the caveats, and if they do deploy it, we can't plausibly do anything about it anyway. Thus, the discussion should be limited to threats that can at least somewhat be estimated.

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I already explained this unknown unknowns to you specifically along with the difference between this and a case like Sandra, and how baseless paranoia- actually nevermind.

All I'm going to say is Crown of Eyes allow for estimation and accurate risk assement and drop this. It feels like I'm talking to someone who isn't really acknowledging my arguments but then you probably feel similarly.

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Yog said:

This, I have to address on two points:

1) Things do get past Outer Gates. The rate of things getting past Outer Gates without significant help from inside Creation seems to be very low, if at all existent, as evidenced by the reality still standing. And the numbers I have provided demonstrate that we can mount a better defense.

2) "Our people back in the tunnels of Las Vegas were useless for it which is notable since the Reds employ Outsiders." - I would very much like a citation, because I remember it in an exact opposite way, where our people were super effective and very useful. Moreover, massive outsider invasion through the portal is just implausible.

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1) Based on the fact that Butcher is planning for the series to end with an Apocalypse it probably gets significantly worse if I were to guess but I digress.

The Outsiders are immune or resistant to many forms of damage and magic. It's the reason why Starborn are such a big deal. Without us going out of our way to find mass producible anti Outsider means of combat our people would do worse in that sort of scenario because most of their means of combat would be shrugged off.


Our people would by default do worse than the combined experienced forces of Winter Summer and the Gatekeeper who actually know what they're doing there and have anti Outsider weapons and the like. You keep pointing at numbers and ignoring these realities.


2) The Red Court employ Outsiders. We don't know to what degree they're involved with them in this timeline or even in canon or how they're being summoned in. DP specifically pointed out to BronzeTongue how enemies may gain access to or be willing to do things and take risk they weren't in the books to combat us. You can't actually say it's implausible, only DP would be aware of whether or not an attempt would be.


For all we know the RedCourt could be a puppet of the Outsiders lead by one wearing the skin of the Red King. I mean we know the guy has mental issues it'd be an interesting twist if all that Outsider meddling got his body possessed or if him being a puppet King is the reasoning behind it.




As for our people being useless against Outsiders in the tunnels.. Do you seriously not remember?


They were extremely useful against the false dragon Samuel having done more damage than Molly and IIRC they even killed him while Molly kept him occupied. Their weapons however had absolutely no effect on the Outsider MOOKS. They didn't get a single Outsider kill. Dresden almost died to one and one of our troops were forced to use their body as a meat shield to protect him because their weapons were entirely useless and they both almost died in the process.


Then Charon showed up for a last minute save as Molly was being held by Outsider mooks and couldn't break out in time to save them.


Afterwords Lydia's father brings up that spirits or ghost (I forget which) maybe able to combat Outsiders by basically burning themselves up and using that power offensively at risk to themselves.



If you somehow don't recall that I can go back and dig up the chapter if necessary or you can do so yourself but hopefully that jogged your memory. I'm surprised you forgot as it was a pretty big deal at least to me. It demonstrated that without investment and investigation our people weren't doing much against Outsiders either. Not that any of our troops of the Hand were using magic but I'm not going to assume that our sorcerers have Starborn abilities by default when that seems to be an Earth specific and prearranged process.

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Yog said:

Mass deployment of shackled gods is also impossible, even if we represent an existential threat to Red Court. For one, their first attempt was a disaster for Red Court - they lost their shackled god, and one of the Lords of Outer Night. For two, doing so leaves them exposed to attacks from their enemies. No conflict is happening in a white room. For three, take twenty Iku Turso's (a war god, I remind you), and throw them against the numbers I provided with the defenses I have already outlined. They'll get shredded.

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1) This is probably going to register as a cop out to you but this is my thought process; The Red Court are shown to demonstrate seriously poor decision making skills in canon. I believe the explanation was that the Red King has brain damage as a result of his old age and its fucking them all over along with Rampire arrogance in general. This arrogance may partly stem from the fact that they enslaved a pantheon and are using them as a food source. The Red Kings status is also the reasoning Arianna gave for wanting him replaced.

Even if they did loose the one god I don't take that to mean they won't try again with more.

They could be of the mindset that without at least one god on the field an assault is pointless for example. I do not believe that just because something may be seen as tactically inadvisable to those who know as much as we do about what the portal will have that the Reds wont try anyways. They lack context and you can't predict stupid.


2) This is what I meant by using the Crown to get the missing pieces. Your talking about 20 Iku Turso's when that character may not at all be indicative of whatever abilities a deployed pantheon would have in their own territory and be able to grant to Rampire mooks on the field if they're willing to risk them.


This is still speaking from a place of ignorance and acting as if we have all of the relevant information when doing so. The math you've done was built without half the equation. Your basing this measure of effectiveness on the fact that both Iku and these other characters are both classified as gods and nothing more.


Again if that's all you have to work with that's all well and good but I'm saying that making decisions which can't be easily undone and effects people under your banner on such limited and potentially misleading data when you don't actually have to is in itself unwise.


Bring the god in was a "because we can" thing it was not at all necessary, our back wasn't against the wall forcing us to do so then run numbers after the fact with whatever data we do have to compensate for a decision made.

Yog said:

A snatching attempt would be harder than a breaching attempt. And all those scenarios assume enemy factions suicidally charge the portal in an attempt to... what exactly? What would they get for such a resource investiture?

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That depends on the exact layout of defenses which hasn't been established. I was thinking in terms of prisoners possibly being taken during a breach attempt.


Try to get their stolen god back? Are you saying they wouldn't have incentive? We're predominantly talking about the Red Court here. The portal is sitting in the middle of their territory. I don't believe they're just going to not attack it. You don't need to explain how bad of an idea that may be. The RC would need to understand that and the Red King would have to not order it anyway.

When we screwed with Mikaboshi's assets in Boston DP pointed out that he'd HAVE to respond or have it seen as a sign of weakness that his enemies would exploit. This may very well be the case here depending on the politics of the portal sitting in their backyard.



Keep in mind this is the same faction that pissed off both the Winter and Summer Courts in quick succession, some of the biggest superpowers in the entire setting, then proceeded to declare war on the White Council. They're being lead by a literally mentally retarded King, and I theorize quite possibly Outsider possessed or influenced.

Yog said:

At the time we had to make a decision, we weren't really in a position to do the analysis. Presumably, when constructing the defenses, we'll be using the Crown to get intelligence on our opposition.

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😑 I guess this came down to how much some people wanted it in the moment. IMO you don't put your people and more importantly limited time at risk without having such information first. That way you don't accidentally shoot yourself, and your people, in the foot. If the analysis cant be done for those reasons going for it anyway was simply irresponsible. Even if your gamble pays off in its entirety later that wont change the facts of what was voted for in the moment and what information was on hand at the time it was voted for.


Yes obviously we're going to be doing it now. We have no other option but as I said if the threat level cant be ascertained within any reasonable margin due to ignorance, if you don't understand what the odds are, then you don't make the gamble and proceed to look up (Crown) the odds after the fact.



This is a gamblers mentality. They don't truly comprehend the odds at play but they put their assets on the line anyway because in their minds they're picturing this ideal timeline in which they get whatever it is they're gambling for and the risk was worth it. Disregarding the fact that they don't fully understand the risk involved in the first place but prioritizing their ideal reality above all else then finding ways to justify it after they've already decided to bet everything on black.


Not a one to one comparison but that is where this makes my mind go.

Yog said:

No, I do not. I am accusing you, and at least some others, of always assigning absolute or near absolute freedom of action and initiative to the opposition, while completely disregarding their other engagements, ongoing conflicts and commitments, and denying similar freedom of actions to any and all "good guy" factions. This is a somewhat hyperbolized statement, but it carries the intent well enough, I think. The enemy gets a say. The allies get a say too. White Council is feeling good enough about their conflict with Red Court that they are sending hunting parties deep into enemy core territory. Maeve and Mab hate them and count a large blood debt against them. Red Court just lost a god, and a lord of outer night - their enemies will be taking advantage of that. They can't afford to exert all their effort against us, because even if they win (and how would that look, by the way? What is a win for them there?), they'll lose on the strategic game board.

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The portal is in the middle of their own territory, of which they can move through freely, and we stole one of their gods after killing one of their Outer Lords. That was quite possibly the biggest blow they've been dealt since the war started depending on how much they rely on their divine assets. I'm making the assumption that the Red Court will prioritize Molly and the WC but the WC does not have a portal sitting in their backyard to their territory.



The White Council may in fact be very busy after this trying to keep themselves in one piece, we don't yet know but your making presumptions regarding their time and ability in future. What if they push less hard on the warfront using the fact that Molly is now involved to justify putting more of their attention to the Black Council in the immediate future? All of this was their fault after all, along with the True Magi.


Maeve and Mab have their own priorities and obligations and enemies too. I'm not just going to assume they'd be in the right spot at the right time to help us without a favor incurred or used.



I just pointed this out but the Red Court do not seem to act in a sane or predictable manner in canon. Again it'll probably read as a cop out to you but it is literally canon that they act like arrogant retards led by a brain damaged king feeling his years. These are the same guys that tried to deploy a bloodline curse on a wizard faction without realizing or caring that such tactics could be turned on them to extreme levels of effectiveness.

I do not expect them to act as rationally or tactically as you'd expect a global scale faction to.




How would a win look for them? Irrelevant. I do not believe that was ever even possible for them in canon to begin with (and they're all fucking dead now lol) nevermind in Quest. Like I said I'm not worried about them in a general sense. What is a win for them here? Getting their god back and dealing a significant blow to Molly's assets I suppose.

How likely that actually is doesn't seem relevant to me. A win for them in my mind however would be tying up our time in future by pulling us away from whatever we voted for during the monthly vote to address a situation at the portal. Possibly turning one Arc into an entirely different kind.

Yog said:

The "snipe" as you call it, is not pointless. Because the "there will be spies among the baby wizards" argument was brought up. I don't remember if "and this will kick off the confrontation anyway" reasoning was brought up, but it could be expected. Which is why doing it this way was choosing the least optimal way to do the confrontation, since it forced us to improvise.

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*Squint*


Acolyte was saying that we didn't do it earlier because the thread was too scared. It was a seemingly pointless snipe from you because not only was that not the reasoning but the vote you linked was not the only time it was discussed so shouldn't be looked at in isolation to find out why we never did the traitor plotline before this. I bet if I look way back I could find an instance of you prioritizing something else over the traitor Arc as we had other priorities, like Sandra or the FFC.



Nobody in thread knew that they had backdoors to look through people's eyes other than Peabody. There was no reason to believe that the baby wardens were tapped in such a way or that such a network even existed.



There was no reason to expect one of the baby wardens to be a traitor spy because Molly had a list of spys derived by the Crown and again we didn't know that the HM looking through their eyes was even possible. Peabody could ask about what abilities we displayed in front of them after the fact or details of our base Last Station but the WC already knows of LS and our Shintai and back then I had argued against showing off additional abilities that they wouldn't know of.

Yog said:

You say that your greatest issue is "when the PC has to drop whatever it is they're doing to address something they themselves brought about" - I can see that, and sympathize. What I do not sympathize with is a position of "there is a nebulous 1% beings that any defenses we build and automate will be meaningless about, and that are both in position and have reason to be attacking us". This position I flat out disagree with. I can't prove a negative and says that there are no such things at all. But I abhor its use to dismiss any and all our efforts as meaningless and useless.

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"there is a nebulous 1% beings that any defenses we build and automate will be meaningless about"

"But I abhor its use to dismiss any and all our efforts as meaningless and useless."


This is just a strawman unintentionally or otherwise. This... I think I have failed to enunciate the problems I had with that vote but maybe this most recent post will make it more clear.






Crown of Eyes. No reason at all to be in ignorance or wonder about what ifs in regards to enemy capabilities and relevant assets. Utilize plentiful Crown foci and ask questions. Do so before making critical decisions that effect many people and may have a major impact on the player character's time going forward for months to come.



If you do not have the option to do so beforehand then consider if what your getting out of it, at the end of the day, is worth the blind gamble.

Depending on who you ask your answer will differ.

First of all, yes I misremembered the Vegas fight a lot.

BoredMan said:

The Outsiders are immune or resistant to many forms of damage and magic. It's the reason why Starborn are such a big deal. Without us going out of our way to find mass producible anti Outsider means of combat our people would do worse in that sort of scenario because most of their means of combat would be shrugged off.

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Leaving aside speculation about how it is plausible that large parts of our population, or at least the population in our Labyrinth may count as Starborn under the established "Starborn are those with souls old enough to have seen First Age" paradigm (we have no means of testing this right now, but it's something to look at later, and they might only count while within our World Body), we already have the weapon you are talking about. Balefire. We know that magical effect Molly recognizes as balefire is effective against Outsiders:

DragonParadox said:

Two fires burn before you, one tumultuous reddish orange, Harry's through and through as it consumes the outsider near him, the other ephemeral blue-green, that barely seems to caress those from Beyond and yet it withers away to fractal nothingness: Balefire, as the bleakest of winter's champions might wield, flames that do not warm and do not shine.

7 Lesser Outsiders Remaining​

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We don't know if it's the same balefire as Molly and the Courts use, but it's the same class of effect, which means that it can be further adjusted if needed.

That said, mass outsider deployment on the scale you are suggesting is implausible. Las Vegas had 13 lesser Outsiders in the field. In order to allow Las Vegas to happen, Outsiders had to burn enough assets and mass an attack strong enough that it took them at least a hundred years to accumulate (if they could mass such attacks more often, they would. Since they don't, they can't).

13 Outsiders were effective against a force of less than twenty with ineffective man portable equipment that specialized in being concealable (remember, we had with us Hand agents, ie CIA black squad, not, for example, a heavy gurvel cohort in power armor).

How large a force of Outsiders do you think it's plausible for Red Court, or, in fact, any other faction, to amass, and transport to the portal site, without running into interference by Fae Courts, knights, denarians (who are not their allies) and all other Creation-based factions? 13? 130? 1300? Unless you are estimating thousands, I am not worried, based on my calculations from earlier. Keep in mind, that they also have to avoid become Hostis Creatio Generis, i.e. the situation where Winter and Summer declare a truce, Mothers hold the Gates for a moment, and a host of million strong Winter Fae with Mab and Order of Blackened Denarians descending on their heads and exterminating them to the last being as a clear, present and active Outsider collaborators actively causing the massive breach of the Gates and a foothold situation.

I would be more worried about single high class agents, but even then I am not that worried.

BoredMan said:

Our people would by default do worse than the combined experienced forces of Winter Summer and the Gatekeeper who actually know what they're doing there and have anti Outsider weapons and the like. You keep pointing at numbers and ignoring these realities.

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This assumes several things:
1) That Outsiders enjoy no benefits from familiarity with the opponents
2) That the rules in Molly's Courts are the same as on Earth and Outsiders know it, or are willing to risk assuming it. Remember, Molly's Courts are not Creation. They are World Body of a Primordial. They operate on their own rules. The frontend looks similar, and likely backend is also mostly similar because Molly was born in Creation, but they are not the same, like the Wheel being a law of physics in our world. How that interacts with Outsider immunities is a big question, which should cause at least a bit of hesitation, since we know, have been told repeatedly, that Outsider forces inside Creation are limited in numbers
3) That there is no passive support from Molly in the form of exalted craft, such as splendors that allow interactions with spirits as if they were matter

BoredMan said:

1) This is probably going to register as a cop out to you but this is my thought process; The Red Court are shown to demonstrate seriously poor decision making skills in canon. I believe the explanation was that the Red King has brain damage as a result of his old age and its fucking them all over along with Rampire arrogance in general. This arrogance may partly stem from the fact that they enslaved a pantheon and are using them as a food source. The Red Kings status is also the reasoning Arianna gave for wanting him replaced.

Even if they did loose the one god I don't take that to mean they won't try again with more.

They could be of the mindset that without at least one god on the field an assault is pointless for example. I do not believe that just because something may be seen as tactically inadvisable to those who know as much as we do about what the portal will have that the Reds wont try anyways. They lack context and you can't predict stupid.

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No, that's actually a good argument. We cannot assume that the enemy is rational. However, we can assume that if the enemy is irrational and are acting stupid, their own enemies will be taking advantage of them. Not everyone can be assumed stupid and insane at the same time. So, if they do try, stuff like mysterious ways, Odin doing a bit of godly solidarity, the half-red organization the name of which I forget, etc, will bite them in the ass. We can hold once even if it would require Molly's intervention, and a repeated attack (yes, a bit of a goalpost shift on my part, I admit, which, I think, I might have had during this argument without articulating or even self-acknowledging) of such kind requires that the first attack does not result in a timely and disastrous consequences.

So, to summarize this point: I acknowledge and concede that a suicidal attack by a major faction (or signular beings on the same power level as a major faction) against our portal will both require Molly's intervention and can plausibly result in some localized damage to our world body.

Also, and this is important - the window of opportunity for such an attack is tiny by most factions' timescale, and completely unknown. I don't think that anyone will argue that within at most half a year we will either have closed the portal, fortified the portal point with exalted craft, favors called, gods forged and summoned to the point it is unassailable, or destroyed the Red Court's ability to attack it, or possibly a combination of those. In that time, Red Court and especially other factions and beings will have to discover that the portal exists, understand where it leads, determine the value of attacking it, and organize and perform such attack.

BoredMan said:

That depends on the exact layout of defenses which hasn't been established. I was thinking in terms of prisoners possibly being taken during a breach attempt.

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The matter of defense designs is one that needs discussing, but, assuming we use Holden's craft, multiple constant perfect defense effects, DC reductions to defenders and ongoing damage and DC increases to enemies is likely.

BoredMan said:

😑 I guess this came down to how much some people wanted it in the moment. IMO you don't put your people and more importantly limited time at risk without having such information first. That way you don't accidentally shoot yourself, and your people, in the foot. If the analysis cant be done for those reasons going for it anyway was simply irresponsible. Even if your gamble pays off in its entirety later that wont change the facts of what was voted for in the moment and what information was on hand at the time it was voted for.

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I will pointedly not argue about "gambler's mentality" because I disagree with this statement very strongly, but already know that this will an unproductive discussion - I have never in all my life, whether in real life or online, had a productive discussion about this. Instead, I will point out, that the choice was "allow the god to die a final death" and "take the god in, resulting in the creation of the portal". Almost no one, as far as I recall (please correct me, if I am misremembering) thought of the portal as a benefit and an incentive to take this course of action. It was presented as a cost to saving the god, not a risky benefit to be obtained.

BoredMan said:

Nobody in thread knew that they had backdoors to look through people's eyes other than Peabody. There was no reason to believe that the baby wardens were tapped in such a way or that such a network even existed.



There was no reason to expect one of the baby wardens to be a traitor spy because Molly had a list of spys derived by the Crown and again we didn't know that the HM looking through their eyes was even possible. Peabody could ask about what abilities we displayed in front of them after the fact or details of our base Last Station but the WC already knows of LS and our Shintai and back then I had argued against showing off additional abilities that they wouldn't know of.

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In my argument with you at the time I explicitely called out a possiblity of espionage as a risk. I probably should have articaluted it more explicitely, but "Peabody will send subervted people into town" was a very obvious danger to me.

BoredMan said:

Crown of Eyes. No reason at all to be in ignorance or wonder about what ifs in regards to enemy capabilities and relevant assets. Utilize plentiful Crown foci and ask questions. Do so before making critical decisions that effect many people and may have a major impact on the player character's time going forward for months to come.

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What would the question and foci be like? I am honestly struggling to think of such that would provide us a broad and useful spectrum of possible threats.