This is predominantly Dresden Files with some other stuff mixed in to fill in the blanks. I'm not going to get the quote but DP told us as much before. Unfounded concerns actually are just straight paranoia. I'm talking about characters, factions and variables we know are active in setting not random characters from Exalted lore like the Ebon Dragon. Not similar at all.
The similarity is based on worrying about unknown unknowns. The demonstrated enemy capabilities so far, when we consider gods (Iku Turso), denarians (Thorned Namshiel), and speicifcally designed greater war-constructs from hell (the thing with Malfean brass we defeated in Wicked City) do not give us cause for worry. The worry comes, as far as I see, from the assumption that opposition has something wildly out of proportion to what we have seen, such as angelic galaxy busting firepower, that they can deploy about us. My argument is that it's meaningless to consider those - we don't know if they have it, we don't know if they can deploy it, we don't know the caveats, and if they do deploy it, we can't plausibly do anything about it anyway. Thus, the discussion should be limited to threats that can at least somewhat be estimated.
Things get past the Outer Gates which is why Rashid needs to check over people. Besides Winter and Summer and the Gatekeeper actually know how to fight Outsiders and have specific tools for it. Our people back in the tunnels of Las Vegas were useless for it which is notable since the Reds employ Outsiders. As well as them being so resistant to magic in general. Without having us look into mass producible anti Outsider means we should expect them to do worse under similar circumstances.
This, I have to address on two points:
1) Things do get past Outer Gates. The rate of things getting past Outer Gates without significant help from inside Creation seems to be very low, if at all existent, as evidenced by the reality still standing. And the numbers I have provided demonstrate that we can mount a better defense.
2) "Our people back in the tunnels of Las Vegas were useless for it which is notable since the Reds employ Outsiders." - I would very much like a citation, because I remember it in an exact opposite way, where our people were super effective and very useful. Moreover, massive outsider invasion through the portal is just implausible.
This is kind of digressing from the point though. As I said to Azais earlier and to you recently, I'm not concerned about the Reds in a general sense here. I don't think they can threaten the five courts in its entirety or something, which I also made known back then.
However they have enslaved deities as well as whatever method(s) they used to get them into that position in the first place. The portal is in South America which is presumably where they'd be kept (Red Court base of power) and seeing as they're tied to the land it's plausible that they weren't employed in canon onscreen against the WC but were in Quest and could be used here for this.
Both because they're limited to South America and because they had other methods that they were more willing to use which didn't put their divine food supply at risk. Such as the bloodline curse which Harry used to wipe them out.
No I don't know how such characters would be modeled mechanically speaking. My concern has always been that things would happen regarding the portal that would require prime!Molly's attention which is why I keep saying "cause issues for us" rather than "threaten the FFC". As I said before the thing that bothers me the most is when the PC has to drop whatever it is they're doing to address something they themselves brought about. I can't imagine why say the breach getting attacked with enslaved deities wouldn't require our attention.
Mass deployment of shackled gods is also impossible, even if we represent an existential threat to Red Court. For one, their first attempt was a disaster for Red Court - they lost their shackled god, and one of the Lords of Outer Night. For two, doing so leaves them exposed to attacks from their enemies. No conflict is happening in a white room. For three, take twenty Iku Turso's (a war god, I remind you), and throw them against the numbers I provided with the defenses I have already outlined. They'll get shredded.
Or the breach gets stormed with leashed gods and whatever abilities they have at their disposal. I don't believe the ceiling is as high as you think it is to be a concern that warrants Molly's attention. Like, if any of our people get snatched in the defense of the breach are we not going to circle back to get them?
A snatching attempt would be harder than a breaching attempt. And all those scenarios assume enemy factions suicidally charge the portal in an attempt to... what exactly? What would they get for such a resource investiture?
Non-actionable qualitative statements?
My issue was making a portal there without answering some of these questions with the Crown so we can do an actual risk assement. Unknown unknowns aren't a non-actionable issue for us because we have the Crown. Red Court foci aren't rare by any means. The problem is we need to use it beforehand. Of course it was time sensitive so that wasn't feasible in the moment but failing that since the danger level couldn't be ascertained and anything beyond a certain point would require Molly's time, which is what I have an issue with, I'd much rather have not.
It's not possible to provide relevant numbers of the enemy units because neither of us are modeling the characters. For that matter I don't know what relevant abilities a subverted pantheon would even have or what relevant abilities Rampires could get by eating them. Building entirely theoretical assessments of enemy dice numbers and abilities on so little data, is not only counterproductive but it's a waste of time.
The only time it maybe isn't is when you have literally no other choice. The solution here was to simply use the Crown, as we have done, to get those critical puzzle pieces and context before making the risk assessment.
That seems entirely reasonable to me.
And yes I'm also saying that running all those numbers as you did while missing such data, while useful for a measure of our own capabilities, may very well have painted an inaccurate picture of the scenario as you lacked parts of the equation.
Generally speaking it's best to do a risk assessment for an action that can't be easily undone and will have an impact on people under your banner after you get the relevant information and variables. That way you can actually factor them in. Unless you don't believe you can afford to (we were at no risk however and the god wasn't going to be a RC asset any longer) then you make a gamble using what you do have. Which is what you did when you started crunching numbers.
At the time we had to make a decision, we weren't really in a position to do the analysis. Presumably, when constructing the defenses, we'll be using the Crown to get intelligence on our opposition.
You are literally doing what your accusing me of doing but with our allies. For example you don't know how busy the WC will be after this and the Knights of the Cross are unreliable as seen in Vegas operating on "mysterious ways".
No, I do not. I am accusing you, and at least some others, of always assigning absolute or near absolute freedom of action and initiative to the opposition, while completely disregarding their other engagements, ongoing conflicts and commitments, and denying similar freedom of actions to any and all "good guy" factions. This is a somewhat hyperbolized statement, but it carries the intent well enough, I think. The enemy gets a say. The allies get a say too. White Council is feeling good enough about their conflict with Red Court that they are sending hunting parties deep into enemy core territory. Maeve and Mab hate them and count a large blood debt against them. Red Court just lost a god, and a lord of outer night - their enemies will be taking advantage of that. They can't afford to exert all their effort against us, because even if they win (and how would that look, by the way? What is a win for them there?), they'll lose on the strategic game board.
Seemingly pointless snipe.
We talked about it multiple times before and after then for many pages. Not just that vote. I'm not sure what your trying to say here as Acolyte was saying that we didn't go for it earlier because the thread was scared of tackling the plotline. For that specific vote though IIRC the motive for doing one before the other was, more down time after Boston which came after Vegas, and use our meeting with the junior Wardens to help us with the Peabody plotline next turn to have an easier time of it.
I myself was always advocating for Molly to handle it personally as opposed to what some other people were saying, to hand the Grey Council a list of Crown derived information and leave it at that because they didn't perceive Peabody and co as a credible threat. One valid concern I had expressed was that they may not believe the 18 years old Hell Queen over people that they've fought and bled with for countless years and the fact that we'd want a good cover for such Crown derived information provided.
That's not fear that's sensible caution.
This is why I was fine and voted to handle the plotline this turn when we took Tina out and Peabody and co started doing shit. They'd have to believe us because the guy and his cultist were about to act against them as the jig was up.
And thankfully we didn't just hand them Crown derived information and leave them to it as their plan for being caught was to start a wizard civil war using trusted people.
The "snipe" as you call it, is not pointless. Because the "there will be spies among the baby wizards" argument was brought up. I don't remember if "and this will kick off the confrontation anyway" reasoning was brought up, but it could be expected. Which is why doing it this way was choosing the least optimal way to do the confrontation, since it forced us to improvise.
You say that your greatest issue is "when the PC has to drop whatever it is they're doing to address something they themselves brought about" - I can see that, and sympathize. What I do not sympathize with is a position of "there is a nebulous 1% beings that any defenses we build and automate will be meaningless about, and that are both in position and have reason to be attacking us". This position I flat out disagree with. I can't prove a negative and says that there are no such things at all. But I abhor its use to dismiss any and all our efforts as meaningless and useless.
