I'm thinking Russia will "convince" Victoria to soon develop 5th generational warfare, which suspect will either be far more conventional or pure Russian meat shield.
 
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Yeah, we can probably nip at their heels as it is.
We won't finish them all off in one war, but we can certainly levy some pressure once we break them.
Well, break them enough to make them fuck off - they are pretty damn broken as it is.

Next war they will have cold war-era tech and doctrine though, at least, because Russians will pressure them into it.
We might want to consider what should we do to cripple them before the next war. Seize ports and airfields? Pirate their lakers? Begin diplomatic counter-campaign to leave them isolated?

Reach out to Miami to pirate Victorian oceanic routes, if they have any?
 
Let's look once more at our luck, shall we?

Commonwealth vs. Victoria Dice:

Sneaking In: 1 vs. 3.
The Raid: 2 vs. 1.
Buffalo Base Bombardment: 1 vs. 1.
Aerial Interception: 2 vs. 2.
Shore Landings: 1 vs. 1.
The Air War: 1 vs. 3
The Second Vic Navy: 2 vs. 1
Fall Back To The Second Line: 3 vs. 2
Resupply Attempt: N/A vs. 1
Assault The Second Line: 1 vs. 2
Signals Intelligence: 3 vs. 1
Pin The East: 2 vs. 1
Destroy The East: OWE
Harass The South: 3 vs. 1
Secure The Laker: 2 vs. 1
River Crossing Chaos: 2 vs. 1
BTR-60, Meet M1A2: OWE

Average: 1.85714286 vs 1.46666667

Used to be 1.4 vs 1.6. Vic dice has gone down, and ours have gone up. Specifically, the Vics have rolled a 1 for the last five rolls, while we've rolled two 3s and three 2s.
 
This is good. It will make our efforts to diplomatically confederate with our neighbors much easier. People like to be on the winning team, and we just beat the bogeyman of the continental US.
 
They swore it would be a day of vengeance, and it was– but it was not the day of their vengeance.


Well-deserved jubilation aside, they've only got half an army and the scraps of an air force left, assumingI'm remembering the deployed forces correctly. Excellent. This is probably the battle right here, if that's true; we nearly outnumber and definitely outgun them.

Still, we should keep a close eye on the Victorians. They're cornered and desperate, which is exactly where we want them to be, but that also makes them less predictable. They might simply rout if we smash their advance at the next line. Normally, I would consider that unlikely. But we targeted and eliminated the CMC contingent attached to this army, so their morale took a massive hit, and there's far fewer people to keep order. So they may simply break and flee. Or if their commander decides he'd rather risk the wrath of his superiors than our artillery barrage, they also might retreat in relatively good order.

We need to follow up if they do that. Our primary objective is to defend Detroit; I'm confident we have that in the bag right now. Our secondary objective, in my opinion, is to annihilate the Victorian Army as thoroughly as we can. We have them in a bad spot; now is the time to inflict as much damage as we possibly can while we have this opportunity. If they run, that's going to mean chasing them down. Then we either harass them as much as we can, or we simply defeat them wholesale if they're weak enough.

Of course, if the Victorians do the opposite, and suicidally charge our lines instead... well, it won't be all that different from their normal tactics, and that's what autocannons are for, anyway.
It should be noted that our realistic options for pursuit are a bit limited.

Firstly, we just blew up the I-75 bridge. While that's very convenient in that it disrupts their ability to advance, it does mean that we'd have a hell of a time chasing them across the Raisin if they actually started falling back.

Secondly, that is a BIG army, and their overall casualties aren't as bad, nor (importantly) is their supply situation as bad, as the eastern army was after Essex. They could likely put up an effective rear guard action at pretty much any place they choose, unless we expend a third charge of Old World Equipment.

Our best strategy for 'pursuit' is a naval blockade of Toledo, since at this point the Victorian Army Air Force has limited ability to contest our actions, and cutting off their entire army from resupply while forcing them to exfiltrate along the south shore of Lake Erie if they want to ever get home at all would seem effective here.

@PoptartProdigy , a question: do we know where the Victorian pontoon bridge over the Raisin is, and if so, how far inland is it?

Eh, don't think we need to expend the rest of our irreplacable asset just because we can. Never know when you might need that ace in the hole, and with the Vics losing their elites and most likely their morale bonus it's looking like we can probably bleed them dry the old-fashioned way.
Remember what happened to the eastern force when we bled them hard at Essex.

They stopped advancing and dug in. And they didn't even have a defended river they'd need to cross in order to continue advancing.

If we really have broken this army's fanaticism and/or the CMC's ability to enforce their will upon it, they may very well do something heretical like "entrench somewhere north of Monroe." At which point the only card we can play is a naval blockade of Toledo.
 
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It should be noted that our realistic options for pursuit are a bit limited.

Firstly, we just blew up the I-75 bridge. While that's very convenient in that it disrupts their ability to advance, it does mean that we'd have a hell of a time chasing them across the Raisin if they actually started falling back.

Secondly, that is a BIG army, and their overall casualties aren't as bad, nor (importantly) is their supply situation as bad, as the eastern army was after Essex. They could likely put up an effective rear guard action at pretty much any place they choose, unless we expend a third charge of Old World Equipment.

Our best strategy for 'pursuit' is a naval blockade of Toledo, since at this point the Victorian Army Air Force has limited ability to contest our actions, and cutting off their entire army from resupply while forcing them to exfiltrate along the south shore of Lake Erie if they want to ever get home at all would seem effective here.

@PoptartProdigy , a question: do we know where the Victorian pontoon bridge over the Raisin is, and if so, how far inland is it?

Remember what happened to the eastern force when we bled them hard at Essex.

They stopped advancing and dug in. And they didn't even have a defended river they'd need to cross in order to continue advancing.

If we really have broken this army's fanaticism and/or the CMC's ability to enforce their will upon it, they may very well do something heretical like "entrench somewhere north of Monroe." At which point the only card we can play is a naval blockade of Toledo.

TRue, but if we can trash the pontoon bridges any retreat, well, route would be the word at that point, would be sans their remaining heavy assets (tanks) and we might destroy at least a few of their units as units. I mean setting up pontoon bridges on the retreat and crossing them? hell, trying to hit those bridges might be worth risking our remaining air assets.

OTOH, do we want to force them to a bitter last stand? making them retreat in disorder, with their tails between their legs might damage the Victorian cause far more than a wipeout.
EDIT: I mean last stands, even stupid last stands, do get some propaganda points, a rout? that would see the soldiers ostracised but would also worm in the doubt in their cause on other sectors, specifically those that are keeping their heads down and trying to survive and that is something desireable
 
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It should be noted that our realistic options for pursuit are a bit limited.

Firstly, we just blew up the I-75 bridge. While that's very convenient in that it disrupts their ability to advance, it does mean that we'd have a hell of a time chasing them across the Raisin if they actually started falling back.

Secondly, that is a BIG army, and their overall casualties aren't as bad, nor (importantly) is their supply situation as bad, as the eastern army was after Essex. They could likely put up an effective rear guard action at pretty much any place they choose, unless we expend a third charge of Old World Equipment.

Our best strategy for 'pursuit' is a naval blockade of Toledo, since at this point the Victorian Army Air Force has limited ability to contest our actions, and cutting off their entire army from resupply while forcing them to exfiltrate along the south shore of Lake Erie if they want to ever get home at all would seem effective here.

@PoptartProdigy , a question: do we know where the Victorian pontoon bridge over the Raisin is, and if so, how far inland is it?

Remember what happened to the eastern force when we bled them hard at Essex.

They stopped advancing and dug in. And they didn't even have a defended river they'd need to cross in order to continue advancing.

If we really have broken this army's fanaticism and/or the CMC's ability to enforce their will upon it, they may very well do something heretical like "entrench somewhere north of Monroe." At which point the only card we can play is a naval blockade of Toledo.
If they stay south of us and we can just starve them into submission, that's a best case scenario in my book. There's no other force that can relieve them, and they can't get back through our navy.
 
We need to take these bridges intact and advance swiftly from there.

For Toledo detachment of Victorian Army Airforce awaits, with all those sweet, sweet F-16s!
 
Nah, we do not want to force the last stand, I think.
We do want to maximize their casualties, but we also need to minimize ours, and cornered enemy is dangerous.

We need to take these bridges intact and advance swiftly from there.

For Toledo detachment of Victorian Army Airforce awaits, with all those sweet, sweet F-16s!

I....doubt that we can actually swing capturing the airplanes intact. They can just up and fly away or something.
It sounds tempting as hell though. Maybe some sort of covert action...
 
Nah, we do not want to force the last stand, I think.
We do want to maximize their casualties, but we also need to minimize ours, and cornered enemy is dangerous.



I....doubt that we can actually swing capturing the airplanes intact. They can just up and fly away or something.
It sounds tempting as hell though. Maybe some sort of covert action...


Hmmm.... what about a drive by? like something out of the LRDG? with perhaps a touch of Entebbe? (one of the plans for the raid was to also steal the Mig-15 in the runway, they settled for torching them, but that was solidly a plan B)
mind, I don't think we can do it atm, we don't have the people or the doctrine, but working towards a LRDG sorta raiders? that could work? I mean low tech as the vics are, arming some jeep or Hmmwv with machineguns for deep raids could work, right? technicals as well... 4x4s
 
I....doubt that we can actually swing capturing the airplanes intact. They can just up and fly away or something.
It sounds tempting as hell though. Maybe some sort of covert action...

40-50 klicks could be crossed in several hours by Big Red One, as long as we draw most Victorians to the north before.
And many of Victorian planes would be in maintenance.

It's quite possible that we would get at least some airframes.
 
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I mean, we totally could stage such a raid IF we'd cleared out the bulk of the Vik forces between us and them, and IF the Raisin weren't an obstacle.

On the other hand, they almost certainly have a large number of planes deadlined as unflyable for maintenance reasons related to the sabotage (jet engines that only actually run for 50 hours before breaking down are a cruel mistress). Just blowing those up would be a waste.

And, hm.

...

Come to think of it, I missed the quasi-update where the Viks attempted to force the river entirely...

The ship is yours, and over the remainder of the course of this action -- that is, until we break for another vote -- civilian cargo tenders from Detroit will be descending on the Niagara like a swarm of locusts. You're...probably going to see a fair amount of stuff get, "dropped over the side," in this process, but there's not a lot that you can actually do about that. Your own merchant marine is busy running constant sprints between here and Chicago to keep supplies coming in from home. You still expect a massive take.
Besides, the stuff we don't get will probably end up in Detroit, and they can use all the war materiel they can get.

TRue, but if we can trash the pontoon bridges any retreat, well, route would be the word at that point, would be sans their remaining heavy assets (tanks) and we might destroy at least a few of their units as units. I mean setting up pontoon bridges on the retreat and crossing them? hell, trying to hit those bridges might be worth risking our remaining air assets.
With the Viks having large numbers of shoulder-fired SAMs to punish low-altitude aircraft, and us having no guided bombs that I know of to hit the bridge from above the ceiling of such missiles, I'm pretty sure three planes wouldn't be able to do the job.

With JDAMs, maybe, but we are not that.

OTOH, do we want to force them to a bitter last stand? making them retreat in disorder, with their tails between their legs might damage the Victorian cause far more than a wipeout.
EDIT: I mean last stands, even stupid last stands, do get some propaganda points, a rout? that would see the soldiers ostracised but would also worm in the doubt in their cause on other sectors, specifically those that are keeping their heads down and trying to survive and that is something desireable
It's kind of shaky.

If they lose their army almost entirely, it's going to be a lot harder for them to figure out what the hell happened, and a lot harder to train a new army and officer corps capable of doing better.

If they manage to recover a significant fraction of a routed army, then it's easier for them to build a new better army in principle, but also easier for political infighting to disrupt those efforts (some colonel who's trying to learn from the battles at Essex and Monroe is told "the CMC didn't make it back, why are you still alive you fucking coward" and thrown in a labor camp).

If they stay south of us and we can just starve them into submission, that's a best case scenario in my book. There's no other force that can relieve them, and they can't get back through our navy.
I suspect that the Victorian army can avoid starvation for quite a while by pillaging the countryside. Of course, eventually that means we just have an unusually large bandit problem down there.

We need to take these bridges intact and advance swiftly from there.

For Toledo detachment of Victorian Army Airforce awaits, with all those sweet, sweet F-16s!
I doubt the Victorians, having just been kicked vigorously in the balls by us blowing up our only bridge over the Raisin, will be stupid enough to let us capture their pontoon bridge across the Raisin intact.

Though I'd love to loot the VAAF airfields at Toledo. Many of their planes are likely not in flyable condition, but could be refurbished, and the sabotage mostly repaired or neutralized, by shipments of parts from the NCR after they rebel. Which we might actually be able to convince them to send us, since it's not like their existing production line for F-16Vs does them any good directly. They might as well continue making mildly shitty export fighters but sell them to someone they like for a change. :p
 
I doubt the Victorians, having just been kicked vigorously in the balls by us blowing up our only bridge over the Raisin, will be stupid enough to let us capture their pontoon bridge across the Raisin intact.

They actually need those bridges intact, however; We did not need ours.
And Devil's Brigade is veteran enough to take them swiftly.
 
With the Viks having large numbers of shoulder-fired SAMs to punish low-altitude aircraft, and us having no guided bombs that I know of to hit the bridge from above the ceiling of such missiles, I'm pretty sure three planes wouldn't be able to do the job.

With JDAMs, maybe, but we are not that.

It's kind of shaky.

If they lose their army almost entirely, it's going to be a lot harder for them to figure out what the hell happened, and a lot harder to train a new army and officer corps capable of doing better.

If they manage to recover a significant fraction of a routed army, then it's easier for them to build a new better army in principle, but also easier for political infighting to disrupt those efforts (some colonel who's trying to learn from the battles at Essex and Monroe is told "the CMC didn't make it back, why are you still alive you fucking coward" and thrown in a labor camp).

Eh, there might be other ways to lance that pontoon, but yeah, i don't think our chances are good.
Still, do keep in mind that a broken army will be a problem for the Victorian state.
Yes, they could give them the opportunity to learn from their mistakes, but they can also get Russian Trainers and surpluss to make up for their loses and a last stand story can work to increase the patriotic fervor.
The broken and savaged army managing to disengage and return (and I do expect to be as savaged as possible) with talks of how (one of) the CMC divisions died like a bitch?

That is a problem for the victorian leadership, if they are too harsh with the men, that will cause morale issues, the officers might be more vanishable, then again the officers might be aware of that and plan accordingly (a smart enough officer to learn from their lessons might be smart enough to know that the victorian leadership is going to need a scapegoat or two, and while they might be able to keep the officerdom shut, the soldiery by and large will talk and probably talk shit of the CMC and their officers

So, what would the victorian leadership do in that situation? discharge all surviving divisions and replace them with new, reliable, folks? I mean, they probably can, specially since we really can't go to the offensive in the short or the medium term (I mean or troops are crap atm, and we don't have enough of them to take AND hold) so the vics have the time to rebuild and probably have the access to stockpiles, theirs or second hand russian cast offs, to do so AND they might have the manpower (at a cost, obviously)

But just by defeating them we have broken their image, their survivors could break their self image and that would be a net victory for us as well, even if some learn a bit of lessons out of this...
You know what? we need to make a propaganda war, make a Tokyo Rose of a sorts, play music the victorians like and talk crap of their state at the same time, it might even work if their morale goes south enough
 
They actually need those bridges intact, however; We did not need ours.
And Devil's Brigade is veteran enough to take them swiftly.
I'm pretty skeptical that this will work, especially given that:

1) It's frankly easier for us to strand the Victorians and starve them out by cutting their pontoon bridges over the Raisin anyway, if we can.
2) The Victorians are likely ruthless enough to sacrifice a rear guard to hold the north end of any pontoon bridge long enough for it to be blown up behind them.

Eh, there might be other ways to lance that pontoon, but yeah, i don't think our chances are good.
Still, do keep in mind that a broken army will be a problem for the Victorian state.
Yes, they could give them the opportunity to learn from their mistakes, but they can also get Russian Trainers and surpluss to make up for their loses and a last stand story can work to increase the patriotic fervor.
They can market a last stand story of one kind or another no matter what happens, though, and their supply of Russian trainers is likely to be limited. The Russians won't hold their hands forever, or in all things.

And in any case, making an army out of effectively nothing is generally more work than making an army out of an inferior army.

The broken and savaged army managing to disengage and return (and I do expect to be as savaged as possible) with talks of how (one of) the CMC divisions died like a bitch?

That is a problem for the victorian leadership, if they are too harsh with the men, that will cause morale issues, the officers might be more vanishable, then again the officers might be aware of that and plan accordingly (a smart enough officer to learn from their lessons might be smart enough to know that the victorian leadership is going to need a scapegoat or two, and while they might be able to keep the officerdom shut, the soldiery by and large will talk and probably talk shit of the CMC and their officers
Alternatively, all the returning soldiers are shipped directly into widely dispersed 'barracks' camps in the wilderness where they are indoctrinated on the story of what 'really' happened. The Judas Division 2nd CMC Division died gallantly to the last man forcing open a breakthrough on the Raisin River, plowing through a massive communist horde. There were just... too many... of them!

[Seriously, this excuse works great for the alt-right when they're excusing German failure against Russia; it's going to be recycled, because PREPARE TO FACE THE FOREIGN HORDES resonates]

So, what would the victorian leadership do in that situation? discharge all surviving divisions and replace them with new, reliable, folks? I mean, they probably can, specially since we really can't go to the offensive in the short or the medium term (I mean or troops are crap atm, and we don't have enough of them to take AND hold) so the vics have the time to rebuild and probably have the access to stockpiles, theirs or second hand russian cast offs, to do so AND they might have the manpower (at a cost, obviously)
I mean, all of those are the problems they already face anyway if we DO destroy their whole army.
 
Non-Canon Omake: Victorian Lessons Learned
Thinking about lessons learned, from a Victorian perspective.

From the dogmatic 4th generation warfare standpoint, the failure of the Detroit Campaign could be viewed as follows:
1. That the Detroit Campaign happened at all. Detroit isn't Chicago, the only reason to take Detroit would be to have a jumping off point in the true fight against the Cultural Marxists. This makes taking Detroit a matter of securing logistics. This is a direct violation of the tenants of 4th generation warfare.
1.1. The correct course of action would have been to allow the Cultural Marxists to think Victoria was going to try to take Detroit and then strike at Chicago itself after they had put themselves out of position.
2. Setting that aside, assuming that the purpose of the campaign had been to take Detroit, the first mistake was the failure to take Detroit diplomatically. 4th generation warfare recognizes that wars are ultimately won in the mind, and this failure represents a catastrophic divergence from that most crucial doctrine.
2.1. Victoria's diplomatic corpse has clearly fallen below the standards of quality required for their role in the 4th generation army. This must be remedied.
2.2. Victoria's successes with Chicago's neighbors must be capitalized upon. Ideally, fear's of Chicago's obvious imperialistic ambitions towards its neighbors should be stoked into open conflict.
2.3. The Detroit Campaign has the chance of creating the false impression that Victoria is weak. This must be addressed as soon as possible.
3. The failure of the military campaign itself was rooted in another failure to uphold the principles of 4th generation warfare: inflexible adherence to an overarching plan and a reliance on naval logistics of all things.
3.1. The force that landed at Leamington was stranded without supplies or the vehicles vital to maneuver warfare when their transports were sunk. The reliance on aquatic transport in the first place represents a fundamental failure to adhere to 4th generation warfare.
3.1.1. It allowed the Cultural Marxist navy to become relevant. The colossal waste of resources that Chicago's fleet should have been was turned into an asset for them due to 3rd generation military planning.
3.1.2. Forces confined to a transport are denied the opportunity to exercise initiative. A force cannot forage while embarked, forcing them to rely on stored provisions, thus tying them to a logistic train. Similarly, a force confined to transports cannot pick their targets and vectors of attack, instead being restricted to the whims of the ship.
3.1.3. These factors combined to render our forces vulnerable to a strategy of defense in depth, of all things. Only the gravest incompetence could have allowed such defenses to be relevant.
3.1.4. The decision to try to resupply the Leamington forces by water was idiotic on so many levels it hurts to contemplate.
3.2. The failure at the Raison represents shows failure of initiative on the part of the commanders of the Toledo based forces. Instead of allowing the CMC to push forward the moment the debacle at Leamington became apparent, they were held back out of dogmatic adherence to an overall plan that had already failed. The death of Moses division as they bravely sought to salvage the boondogle that overall command had made was an unnecessary waste of Victoria's finest.
3.2.1. This timidity allowed the Chicago navy to become relevant again. Had the Toledo based forces pushed forward while Chicago's ships were still occupied by the transports, they could have avoided the artillery bombardment that slowed them when they finally were set loose. It also allowed the Cultural Marxists the chance to destroy the I-95 bridge, which could have been seized at the outset.
3.3. With regards to the accusations currently being leveled at the airforce: they did their duty. There was exactly one sortie against the Cultural Marxist's air forces, and in that battle Victoria's airforce swept them from the sky. Every deployment after that, every plane and pilot lost after that, was the result of orders from commanders who clearly do not understand the role of the airforce in 4th generation warfare!
3.4. In summary: I am certain that an overland force with even a little imitative could have taken Detroit with little effort.
4. In light of this our course becomes clear: we must renew our commitment to the fundamental principles of 4th generation warfare.
4.1. This battle will have given the Cultural Marxists of Chicago an unwarranted sense of confidence. We must use this to turn their neighbors further against them, ideally to the point of open war.
4.2. We must use the confusion and hostility to maneuver a ground force into a position from which it can strike at the enemy's heart.
4.2.1. This force must be free to exercise the initiative needed to free it from reliance on a logistics train, especially a naval one.
4.2.2. This force must have the courage, skill, initiative and independence to execute its mission without the shackles of a rigid, overarching plan.

----

The ideal solution to this situation, from a Rumsfordian viewpoint, would be to smuggle a nuke into Chicago.
 
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I mean, one thing is absolutely right: they can salvage a lot and hurt us a lot if they focus, hard, on diplomatic campaign of containment against us while they rebuild their army.
We must sink a lot of effort into diplomacy after this debacle to not let the victory go to waste. Being coalition'd by everyone around wouldn't be fun.

On the bright side, letting everyone and their mother observe the carnage probably helps people understand that we are not helpless, and that Victorians are not invulnerable.
They do say "Talk softly, and carry a big stick", but it certainly helps in any talk to have a visibly big stick, you know? We just made ours visible.

Not that we actually need anything so crass as intimidating people. They are not dumb, they will keep in mind that we massacred Waffen CMC without a second thought and retreated in good order against 5-to-1 numeric disadvantage. Everyone is going to be quite aware of us having enough Abrams to tear apart armoured division, we do not have to remind anyone.

We just talk with everyone politely, calmly, with a smile and goodwill, the observers and journalists we oh so helpfully allowed to take photos of river running red with blood and corpses of Victorian elite will do the rest for us.
 
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Our strategy isn't to intimidate our neighbors. Our strategy is to say:
We just proved that Victoria can be beaten. Everyone knows they were Russia's sockpuppet, and Russia's hands are busy elsewhere.
So lets look at those "diplomats" the Vics have sent your way, and lets call them what they really are: thugs, here to intimidate you into compliance.
We're not here to conquer you, to demand tribute, to demand that you let us march armies through your territories or "requisition supplies" from you. We're not here to say "if you're not with us, you're against us". Hell, even if you stand with Victoria, even if you are against us, we're not here to declare vendetta against you. The moment you split from them, bygones will be bygones. We all know the fear of having their guns at our heads, and we sure as hell aren't going to judge anyone for it.
We're here for one reason, one reason only. We're here to tell Victoria that it can get fucked. We're here to call them the goddamn Nazis that they are. And everyone knows what the Commonwealth does to Nazis.
We're here to say no more.
 
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Y'know, if we completely defeat the Victorians here, they have what, 4 divisions left? 3 if we sweep up the ones on the islands, and 2 if we get the Toledo division? And we have 3 divisions capable of acting outside commonwealth territory?

Well, that's probably not enough to invade. But I wonder if it would be enough for us to offer FCNY a military alliance, in which we send over 2 divisions as military afvisors to help them train up an army, and just coincidentally be in a position to hold the maginot++ against any Victorian assault looking to stop that? Because sure, they might be able to rustle up some militias, but their skill 2 units had enough problems with our fortifications; I'd love to see their reaction to what New York has managed with decades of time and far more advanced tech.
 
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