There are a couple factors in favor of taking Port Sindbad:
1. With building an air base there we would most likely have heavy bomber range for the entirety of Australia and most likely the seas north of it. This is important as our doctrine is built around aircraft carriers and submarines to find targets in the wide seas. After they are found we can send a bombing run to soften them up before engaging them with more conventional forces. While bombing runs most likely won't be killing blows they will hurt any pirate fleet concentrations.
2. We just got the permission for Britannian naval forces to operate in Indonesian territorial waters. One of the effects of that is increased patrols by the royal navy. Opening a naval base with maintenance and resupply facilities on the western coast of Australia would allow Britannian navy ships to better patrol the area and protect our supply convoys to the MEF front. If we can't get Euphy to negotiate some deals to use our potential new real estate by Ethiopian and Britannian ships for their operations then we aren't trying. Which would mitigate the problem of our split forces.
3. Our forces will be able to use Port Sindbad as one end of our Northern Australia patrol routes. Especially if we decide to use some of the cash we got and order two more aircraft carrier groups to really start putting the squeeze on the pirates.
4. Since we will have to station intelligence operations in Port Sindbad anyway to deal with the true believer rebels it will be an opportunity for covert infiltration over land of both the Children and Raiders. Raiders to stir up trouble and Children to hopefully steal the Guren which many of us want to gift Kallen as a birthday gift. And any theft operations will be easier with extraction over land with air support. Especially if our forces will be carrying something large. Like a KMF.
As to attacking New Heaven and why the secret victory method is more attractive:
1. The best resource we can get (psionic artisans and general psionic population) is most likely to be damaged in the fighting.
2. The cities still have force fields so will be tough nuts to crack.
3. While they lost psionic warriors which will take a long time to replenish, they won't have a problem replenishing their fleet due to the speed their psionic artisans can produce new ships and crew them with slaves. Which means we would have to go after them hard and fast or risk a war of attrition which returns to point 1.
Sons of Teach... I'm not sure if there might be other options dealing with them, we don't exactly know much about them besides being Independent Black Lagoon style pirates. Depending on how mercenary they are, there might be a window of opportunity. Meanwhile Port Sinbad is literally seeing its backers crumble instantly.
The good thing about taking Port Sindbad is that the method in the Pirate Dossier plays to our strength. A simple military conquest combined with using our shinobi to destroy the hardliner resistance.
There is also the fact the Blades got mysterious backing to build a second fleet. That means that someone is planing to use them. And it most likely aren't the Eunuchs. Since they were using the Freelance Raiders to raid Indonesia when we hired out our forces for port security. If we are lucky our intelligence forces might find clues to who was funding them during the clean up.
Yeah but they are moving to leave with all do haste. Remember Sun Tzu... Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake. Cornelia's just getting all her ducks in a row, and figuring out how to get to the Russian coast (Chechnya and Crimea)... Remember Kyiv's independent on the map...
...and we also opened up a possible corridor for Cornelia through Armenia. Might not NEED to be an amphibious landing now.
Uniting the Rus Republic and Euro-Britannia is the goal. Euro-Britannia wants autonomy from the Britannian Empire. But due to treaties can't become more independent until they have a Tzar/Tzarina. And there are strict rules about crowning the next one. Both on bloodline and location where it can happen.
So Cornellia won't be conquering the Rus Republic but her goal is a raid to capture the only place where she can be crowned. After that her plan is most likely centered around getting Euro-Britannia which would be under her rule due to treaties (and most likely backroom deals to prepare them) to invade the Rus Republic while her forces cause havoc behind enemy lines with the goal to reconquer the territory.
As to the EU reaction. They wouldn't like it. They would hate it but they wouldn't be able to do anything about it without getting into a shooting war with with the Britannian Empire. Basically the same situation like with the MEF. They might try something like their plan with Bulgaria but if Cornellia is fast enough she might pull it off without setting off an EU-BE war.
Due to crazy dice the Rus Republic left the EU. The dice were so crazy that they have a special rule now where the lower the roll for them the better it is for them (basically sanity returns there). It doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon.
EDIT: I rechecked and I was wrong. Last turn the rumor mill said that the president who wanted out of the EU won the reelection and that it is almost a sure thing. So a few years before Cornellia blitzes them most likely. Especially if we manage to give her some toys from our research.
Due to crazy dice the Rus Republic left the EU. The dice were so crazy that they have a special rule now where the lower the roll for them the better it is for them (basically sanity returns there). It doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon.
Basically, silentorphan, they did the Semper Ad Meliora's version of Brexit by leaving their long-standing allies in the west... While also having an actively hostile neighbour sitting to the east from their borders.
I mostly remember Lelouch having increasing social obligations towards his lovers and soon kids.
He really needs to start learning how to give attention to multiple members of the above at once while still keeping it intimate. Hopefully the talk with Euphie and Sayoko drove it home to him such that he starts trying to figure out how to do that.
While I do understand the worry about Supply lines, we do have to remember that Port Sinbad, while not close to us, is VERY close to Indonesia, a nation we have quite a few advantages when it comes to military supplies, and DID acknowledge our claim to the whole of Australia. We could potentially send supplies through Area 8, Jakarta, and then take Port Sinbad, assuming we can take and hold it, we can set up a more permanent supply shipping corridor, not just east to New Caledonia, but Trade corridors to the West and North.
Sons of Teach... I'm not sure if there might be other options dealing with them, we don't exactly know much about them besides being Independent Black Lagoon style pirates. Depending on how mercenary they are, there might be a window of opportunity. Meanwhile Port Sinbad is literally seeing its backers crumble instantly.
My issue is not supplies, but military strength. The location of the Blades' harbor forces us to split our forces in half or some other split. It leads to us being split off from each other through the most likely enemy forces in Australia. Neither Indonesia nor another Area can change that fact, because we have no access or command over their forces to safeguard this location. Considering how these pirates have plagued the Chinese, Britannia and Indonesia, I have troubles seeing us just no-selling their efforts in attacking shipping in their surrounding waters. Furthermore, all these territories have different main targets right now.
Our troops/fleet split apart is an easier target than if it is concentrated. That is just common sense. The enemy would literally be able to hit either location before the other has a chance to intervene. We would need constant knowledge of their plans to circumvent such an action. Assuming such an edge on the intelligence level is a dangerous game to play. Or, we would need a strong enough military at both locations to beat them back. Forcing a strategic constrain on us that is not balanced by any advantage this place provides.
In the end, we will not be able to do every secret winning condition thing for every faction. You literally propose dealing with one through military power, but want to wait for the other, because there could be another way. With the Sons, being stated as the easiest to be removed by conventional means, it is frankly absurd to go the extra length for them. Considering how you have no issue with going the conventional route for the Blades, reveals the argument to be disingenuous. Because the same applies to the Blades, who have had multiple backers that we know of.
Interesting enough, looking at the ocean currents around Australia, the route we'd want to take to the far western side from New Catelonia (around the south) had favorable currents in both directions.
We would be going by several factions, but considering who those factions are (the Cats, the Costra Nostra, the Crowns, and the Dukes of Tasmania) I think it's not too dangerous to ship that direction. In fact, it's probably outright safe since that'd give us a reason to attack when they know all that's keeping us from them is the cost of starting shit with them.
Which would aggravate the issue of distance and the time to get there. How is increasing the distance and time it takes to bring troops or ships from one place to the other a solution to the issue I raise? It just makes it worse!
Planting our flag close to two hostile neighbors and expecting them to do nothing is a strange assumption. The Southern Route would literally go through the territory of the group, known to also target Britannian shipping. How can someone expect that to go over so well?
Considering our extreme need for action economy, forcing us to spend actions on multiple avenues at the same time is a receipt for disaster heading our way.
If we take the Blade's harbor, we need to deal with internal problems. We need to destabilize or weaken the Freelancers, keep an eye on the Children and New Heaven and deal with the political and military fall out. Meaning we need to deal with Blood's reaction, governors concerns, the dukes concerns, Indonesia and China as well as our other diplomatic adventures that we already promised to do.
There are a couple factors in favor of taking Port Sindbad:
1. With building an air base there we would most likely have heavy bomber range for the entirety of Australia and most likely the seas north of it. This is important as our doctrine is built around aircraft carriers and submarines to find targets in the wide seas. After they are found we can send a bombing run to soften them up before engaging them with more conventional forces. While bombing runs most likely won't be killing blows they will hurt any pirate fleet concentrations.
2. We just got the permission for Britannian naval forces to operate in Indonesian territorial waters. One of the effects of that is increased patrols by the royal navy. Opening a naval base with maintenance and resupply facilities on the western coast of Australia would allow Britannian navy ships to better patrol the area and protect our supply convoys to the MEF front. If we can't get Euphy to negotiate some deals to use our potential new real estate by Ethiopian and Britannian ships for their operations then we aren't trying. Which would mitigate the problem of our split forces.
3. Our forces will be able to use Port Sindbad as one end of our Northern Australia patrol routes. Especially if we decide to use some of the cash we got and order two more aircraft carrier groups to really start putting the squeeze on the pirates.
4. Since we will have to station intelligence operations in Port Sindbad anyway to deal with the true believer rebels it will be an opportunity for covert infiltration over land of both the Children and Raiders. Raiders to stir up trouble and Children to hopefully steal the Guren which many of us want to gift Kallen as a birthday gift. And any theft operations will be easier with extraction over land with air support. Especially if our forces will be carrying something large. Like a KMF.
1. An airbase covering all of Australia should, if it counts for this location, also for every other. It is at the edge of Australia like every other location, only a more central location would have an actual advantageous position for an air base covering all of Australia. Granting it similar distance to every corner of it.
Concerning using it as launching platform for air strikes on naval targets...ignoring how finding them is always an issue, the enemy has AA assets, you know? Has military bases close by and has a literal example been given of how we like to operate. Case in point, our strong offensive focus on air assets. We would need to establish complete air superiority, which would likely be a constant struggle. Face dedicated AA assets and then have all our assets work together to execute each attack.
I can see value in covering more area through air assets, but this singular location is hardly that advantageous for it. Additionally, violating Indonesian airspace could come up.
2. Docking & Passing rights are not the same as doing military operations in the waters. Military vessels going from one place to another could be meant, but there is a difference between actually patrolling waters and just going through them.
Additionally, docking rights kind of makes anything we offer absolutely of negligent worth. Jakarta is a far better location and the common trade route is not along the Australian coast but through the Strait of Malacca or Sundai. Ignoring how, Area 9 would be the logical place to make a pit-stop, making it highly doubtful of them actually needing supplies after such a short distance.
Then we have to factor in that we need to expand the harbor or warehouses to deal with the higher demand in supplies. Essentially making this likely a similar issue as the harbor offer had. We would need to build it up and make it more attractive than already existing places, while dealing with taking their business away.
3. Patrolling through literal enemy territory is a positive...why exactly? We never had the numbers to guarantee such broad territorial security. Half of that lane or water area is also literally the doorstep of Area 9, which means with securing a harbor on the land side of Australia we would have a perfect triangle to protect our side of Australia, and they likely do their part there already. We can literally dock in Indonesia right now. What is the exact difference to the current state that would make it more advantageous?
4. First, trying to make something that is indicated to be a disadvantage into an advantage is truly stretching things. Slayer has till now shown no sign of making disadvantages that he created as obstacles into our advantages without massive crits. And banking on crits, would not be a sound argument. Therefore, I assume it is not what you are suggesting, making from the start this argument is extremely suspect.
Then we infiltrated New Heaven without any of that and stealing a KMF with air assets is just ludicrous. Sorry, but do you honestly think we can enter the airspace of an enemy stronghold without them noticing and escape with likely one of their more valuable military assets? How high a crit do you think that scenario would go for? 250? 300? 350?
Freelancer are mentioned to have us holding the idiot ball and be negligent to actually become a true threat. It is more the issue that we would then also have to deal with them through action. Consideirng how they were stated to be in a minor war with New Heaven, providing them with a juicier and closer target seems an outright bad idea. Lastly, it is mentioned that the extremists need to be culled by a sweep. A sweep is not a constant surveillance state or dedicated intelligence post.
Alright. Twisting my arguments to create a strawman argument (overland operations with air support including air drops and smuggling does not equal infiltration with air assets) aside.
What are your plans for using the the expanded forces we will have over the next three years? Just take out the Sons and then stop as other soft targets on the east coast will cost us our income from Area 8?
Because I at least, when thinking about taking the Blades first, am planning to continue on to the Freelancers to secure the entire western coast while our covert units start laying the groundwork for other conquests (like covert sabotage of the Children). Especially since we recently weakened the Freelancers by cutting off their financial support from the Eunuchs and giving their forces a bloody nose.
Not to interrupt or anything... and definitely not a reminder to keep things civil (hint-hint), but...
After a good bit of consideration, I've decided I will do the OOC questions this time around for page 500, whenever we get to it.
I may be a little light on the details compared to the other 100-page marks, but I will keep to the standard and you'll get your questions.
...and, no, this is not an invitation for the thread to explode with shitposts just to get to the 500th page. I still haven't officially posted a continuation of the turn, so we aren't fully back yet.
...and, no, this is not an invitation for the thread to explode with shitposts just to get to the 500th page. I still haven't officially posted a continuation of the turn, so we aren't fully back yet.
It likely be total panic. Theres a legit risk that they will offer to assist directly the Rus Republic regardless of membership status. And at bare min? They will be shoving a lot of supplies and equipment into Rus hands. Which 'eans Cornelia to succeed would likely need Britannian supplies and equipment.
It is going to turn into a proxy war....and we have the slight issue of politically having joined the faction actively planning this. We HAVE to succeed quickly or risk our faction losing considerable influence.
Which would aggravate the issue of distance and the time to get there. How is increasing the distance and time it takes to bring troops or ships from one place to the other a solution to the issue I raise? It just makes it worse!
Taking any territory will require us to split our forces, especially when we're attacking places. That's a bit pedantic of me, but the solution to this problem isn't only "never split our forces" but also to get more forces. We're gonna need to do a military build up anyways if we want to actually control all of Australia, and we're gonna need some progress to get buy-in.
Planting our flag close to two hostile neighbors and expecting them to do nothing is a strange assumption. The Southern Route would literally go through the territory of the group, known to also target Britannian shipping. How can someone expect that to go over so well
Before you continue reading I'm gonna request you open the pirate dossier in another tab/window and glance at it as you go along (as I'm doing while writing this). Please point at anything you feel I'm misrepresenting from there so we can establish common ground. I'm explicitly not trying to be condescending with this, I just want good and civil discourse.
Also for your convenience I'm posting one of the many maps of the currents I found:
Continuing on, I'm gonna discuss the groups the Southern Route passes from New Catalonia onwards:
We'd follow the current on the Northern side of New Catalonia west roughly towards the Cats port of Las Tortuga
The Cats are about selling an "authentic pirate experience" and being basically Sodom. They won't be raiding us
We also swing south relatively far from their port, so that's doubly no trouble here
Having swung south, we pass the territory of La Cosa Nostra
This is close, but they're about smuggling not piracy. They won't be raiding us
Further South we pass the territory of the Crowns, who actually have the power to fight us
But we're one of the paymasters now, so they're unlikely to start shit with us
We continue on to pass around Tasmania's south side, territory of Britannian Dukes
They really won't want to start shit with us
There's no marked ports on the south side of Australia after we pass Tasmania going west
I'm making the reasonable assumption there's not a heavy pirate presence to worry about
Following the current, we go a fair bit west past the south-western edge of Australia before heading north
We're giving Perth a fairly wide berth, so that port of the Freelance Raiders should be a lesser issue compared to step 7
Our route north from there is a bit messier, since current maps are inconsistent on the details.
For argument's sake, let's go with us getting spit back out at Hounds Bay instead of Port Sinbad
Now we're definitely close enough to worry about raiders
Except that their modus operandi is targeting low risk ships, and they're the faction of the assorted disunified dregs of Australian pirates
So this is low threat, but definitely not no threat.
This gives a reasonable argument to take out the Freelance Raiders before the Blades, which is totally fair and potentially the right call
A bit more north is Port Sinbad, and we'd only go here if we are actively fighting the Blades, or have conquered the Blades
I guess we could have taken a ship to talk with the Children of Ching Shih too, but I can't think of anything else
Do note that shipping to goods to Port Sinbad would likely come from Ethiopian or Britannian ships coming down from Indonesia since the Children of Ching Shih exclusively target Chinese Federation ships. If we don't start shit, they're unlikely to start shit.
The return to New Catalonia is basically the same except we'd definitely go close enough to Perth to give as much worry there as we do Hounds Bay, and we'd probably pass between Australia and the northern side of Tasmania. We're also further east from the ports we past on our way south so even less threat from them.
Considering our extreme need for action economy, forcing us to spend actions on multiple avenues at the same time is a receipt for disaster heading our way.
If we take the Blade's harbor, we need to deal with internal problems. We need to destabilize or weaken the Freelancers, keep an eye on the Children and New Heaven and deal with the political and military fall out. Meaning we need to deal with Blood's reaction, governors concerns, the dukes concerns, Indonesia and China as well as our other diplomatic adventures that we already promised to do.
Would you be willing to point out which groups you think we should go after as military targets first? I hope I'm not wrong for assuming you want to take out/over one faction at a time, but your personal view on the order should help.
For some insight for my reasoning on hitting the west first, I'm of the opinion that hitting the Sons of Teach would make diplomacy with the Blood of L'Olannis more difficult, but absent that I recognize that they're a very good target too.
Alright. Twisting my arguments to create a strawman argument (overland operations with air support including air drops and smuggling does not equal infiltration with air assets) aside.
What are your plans for using the the expanded forces we will have over the next three years? Just take out the Sons and then stop as other soft targets on the east coast will cost us our income from Area 8?
Because I at least, when thinking about taking the Blades first, am planning to continue on to the Freelancers to secure the entire western coast while our covert units start laying the groundwork for other conquests (like covert sabotage of the Children). Especially since we recently weakened the Freelancers by cutting off their financial support from the Eunuchs and giving their forces a bloody nose.
I apparently misread that. It was late for me. Sorry about that, but they are the only faction that is mentionend in having an active air force. With any air asset being found out, they are a liability to the cladestine nature of such a mission and not an asset. And you cannot seriously state that stealing a high end military vessel the size of a cabin/small house is a decent goal for a cladestine mission. Plans, data, information or parts of it, maybe. But the whole thing?
I argue for option A(Sons) and not go for option B(Blades). I have not lost a word about what comes afterwards. To shift the goalpost, to go for a rhetoric question and then imply my own answer...is that considered acceptable by your standards?
If we are just talking about military targets, I would say the general outline right now would be Sons, Freelancers, Blades and the Children. For the rest, I would first look towards another form of subjugation. And with the Children last, I would also first look to their secret condition.
If we are talking about overall plan, I would go for the Sons first to eliminate our only close enemy. Then use Walpurgis option and see who comes out. Look towards integration of the whole East Coast, most directly increase our shares of the Crowns. Personally, at that point, there are already enough variables involved to make it unlikely for me or anyone else to see the best path forward. But for argument's sake, I would then go for the Freelancers. Likely try to have them bleed New Heaven, before taking over, to get rid of the most troublesome members. Afterwards, we will have to consolidate. Also, we would then be seen as a threat with clear-cut ambitions on them all so that we would likely face true opposition on all levels from the big three. Or be able to pursue a secret winning condition from one of the big three. Allowing us to cement an absolute superiority against everyone else, even put together.
I don't see sense in going further in making any plans than that point, even for argument's sake.
Considering how the Freelancers are a myriad of factions put together and they are in a nominal war with New Heaven, I am doubtful of funding being pulled completely. More likely for one backer to be exchanged for another. Instead of someone from the CF with beef with Indonesia granting them some funds, they now get the irate members of the CF being displeased with the New Heaven. Also, with their opportunistic nature being a factor, the losses New Heaven suffered would make them look like a juicy target.
With them having earlier on moved into Indonesian waters that are now better secured by a CF fleet and Britannian ships, it will likely end with them being forced into looking for new targets. Putting a juicy one directly before them would have easily foreseen consequences.
Honest question. Can we ask after all secret conditions for the pirate factions? Or is it restricted to one per question? I just don't remember i you put a limit on it or not. And a quick search did not find anything.
Taking any territory will require us to split our forces, especially when we're attacking places. That's a bit pedantic of me, but the solution to this problem isn't only "never split our forces" but also to get more forces. We're gonna need to do a military build up anyways if we want to actually control all of Australia, and we're gonna need some progress to get buy-in.
Being that pedantic and then ignore something I said is counterproductive. Furthermore, it once more ignores the core part of what I am stating. The issue is not splitting itself, it is the distance put between the parts of the fleet, with nominal hostile forces in between. Granting them a central position. For the Sons, that does not exist.
Providing the enemy with an exemplary example for performing defeat in detail is a major disadvantage, especially because our fleets are stated to be extremely vulnerable to being overwhelmed by numerical superiority. From a strategic perspective, it takes our greatest weakness and provides the enemy with the perfect opportunity to exploit it.
Also, I stated increasing strength as a factor, but put it under the caveat that concentration of forces will be harder, reinforcement slower, needs to be greater in size and the immediate need of it.
An expansion of our military forces is necessary to reach our goals and with our short-term influx of cash we can do it now, full agreement there, but time is an issue. Our last Fleet expansion action, just expanding the "flotilla", took two years. I don't see buying a whole fleet taking somehow less time. Far more likely, it takes the same amount or even more. If we go for the Blades before such an expansion, we would put ourselves into an extremely vulnerable position. Expecting no response from nominal hostile forces or newly threatened ones looks unrealistic to me.
Overall, no such disadvantages exist for the Sons. They are weaker on a military level, surrounded by friendly or at least neutral forces, close to our main base and no immediate strategic constrains are put on us if we do conquer them. The opposite actually, we would take out the enemy closest to our home base.
Before you continue reading I'm gonna request you open the pirate dossier in another tab/window and glance at it as you go along (as I'm doing while writing this). Please point at anything you feel I'm misrepresenting from there so we can establish common ground. I'm explicitly not trying to be condescending with this, I just want good and civil discourse.
Also for your convenience I'm posting one of the many maps of the currents I found:
Continuing on, I'm gonna discuss the groups the Southern Route passes from New Catalonia onwards:
We'd follow the current on the Northern side of New Catalonia west roughly towards the Cats port of Las Tortuga
The Cats are about selling an "authentic pirate experience" and being basically Sodom. They won't be raiding us
We also swing south relatively far from their port, so that's doubly no trouble here
Having swung south, we pass the territory of La Cosa Nostra
This is close, but they're about smuggling not piracy. They won't be raiding us
Further South we pass the territory of the Crowns, who actually have the power to fight us
But we're one of the paymasters now, so they're unlikely to start shit with us
We continue on to pass around Tasmania's south side, territory of Britannian Dukes
They really won't want to start shit with us
There's no marked ports on the south side of Australia after we pass Tasmania going west
I'm making the reasonable assumption there's not a heavy pirate presence to worry about
Following the current, we go a fair bit west past the south-western edge of Australia before heading north
We're giving Perth a fairly wide berth, so that port of the Freelance Raiders should be a lesser issue compared to step 7
Our route north from there is a bit messier, since current maps are inconsistent on the details.
For argument's sake, let's go with us getting spit back out at Hounds Bay instead of Port Sinbad
Now we're definitely close enough to worry about raiders
Except that their modus operandi is targeting low risk ships, and they're the faction of the assorted disunified dregs of Australian pirates
So this is low threat, but definitely not no threat.
This gives a reasonable argument to take out the Freelance Raiders before the Blades, which is totally fair and potentially the right call
A bit more north is Port Sinbad, and we'd only go here if we are actively fighting the Blades, or have conquered the Blades
I guess we could have taken a ship to talk with the Children of Ching Shih too, but I can't think of anything else
Do note that shipping to goods to Port Sinbad would likely come from Ethiopian or Britannian ships coming down from Indonesia since the Children of Ching Shih exclusively target Chinese Federation ships. If we don't start shit, they're unlikely to start shit.
The return to New Catalonia is basically the same except we'd definitely go close enough to Perth to give as much worry there as we do Hounds Bay, and we'd probably pass between Australia and the northern side of Tasmania. We're also further east from the ports we past on our way south so even less threat from them.
I understand establishing a foundation for a discussion, but I think it would have been better to put the focus on the contested areas. I think this would likely only be the Freelancers.
I don't see any issue from 1 to 5.
Well, here is a map of OTL shipping lanes for Australia. I reference it, so I put it first.
6. Give Perth a wide berth goes off the tongue, nicely ^^. As demonstrated by the shiping lane map, most well travelled lanes are close to the coast. The lanes are that way because they are the shortest, most cost efficient ones. Therefore, going about it your way immediatedly increases cost and time to go there, with the latter being one of my main issues.
Then there is the issue that these are their waters. We know from Weber that even they use mines. Similar things can be expected here, including small patrols to more dedicated attempts at raiding. Foregoing the closest waters lowers the direct risk, but does not negate it. Especially when the lane would be in constant use.
Lastly I would point towards the Green flecks to the West of Perth. With these being the likely waters you proposed to traverse, they seem to be less hidden or away as you may think.
7. I think you need to differentiate between multiple events. These are fleet movements, patrols, supply/cargo movements and convoys.
1. Our full fleet should not normally move constantly between one side of Australia and the other. Each such move is more likely a strategic realignment or preperation for an attack or defense. I agree it is unlikely for them to attack the full fleet under normal circumstances. If the same applies when they feel threatened for their independence or very existence, is something else. With Alice being willing to go head to head with New Heaven, I would expect the same determination coming our way. But overall, extremely unlikely for them to actively target our fleet.
2. Patrols are another thing, they were willing and had elements that engaged with New Heaven. They went so far as going to war with them. This aggression is not restricted to just them. They apparently repeatingly clash with the Crowns for targeting Britannian shipping. So patrols themselves are unlikely to intimidate them into not attacking.
3. Supply and cargo movements have no inherent military capacity and would therefore be simply prey to them. But from an economic side, they are vital and as we know are used by Britannia and everyone else. It is just not economically viable to escort every cargo ship.
4. Convoys are cargo or supply ships escorted by military vessels. They are normally not a full fleet contingent and with the exception of an invasion convoy, we would likely not increase their contingent from the historical standard. According to WW1 and WW2 data the convoy system reduced overall shipping loads by a third. This is the first disadvantage of such a system, which is one of the reasons why the nations hesitated to introduce it. And then there is the issue that the military contingent may not be enough to threaten the Freelancers into leaving it alone. If it would be, they would never clash with the Crowns, Blades, New Heaven or other forces.
Furthermore, we have evidence that their modus operandi, stated in the dossier, changed according to their attacks on Indonesia and New Heaven. Weber also considers the possibility likely that Alice Mathers is angling for an actual unified attack on New Heaven. Such an attack can also be directed against a new threat directly at their doorstep.
With them being willing to openly attack harbors, their threat potential has to be increased.
8. I have to confess, you somewhat lost me here. I assumed this whole argument is based around the idea of taking down the Blades first. Else such a route makes little sense to me. As you acknowledge the way around Area 9 and through Indonesian waters would be better. It looks like it pulls the rug under your argument for this route, or am I misunderstanding something here?
I agree the most sensible route to Sinbad is around Area 9 and through Indonesian waters, it just aggravates my issue regarding time and distance. Also the last stretches between Indonesian waters and Sinbad are likely the territory the pirates would target. I mean the Blades did not enter Indonesian waters as far as we know and still went after Britannian ships.
For the Children, we lack reliable information to know how they would react. It is one thing to not target Britannian shipping and another to accept a Britannian Prince subjugating their neighbors, with likely designs on their own territory. They are willing to pick a fight with the CF, they will not shirk from a fight because he comes from Britannia and the problems he could bring down upon them like Blood.
Fact is we are responsible for dwarting their latest ploy. We seem cushy with the CF leadership in form of Xingke and the Empress. And we would have just demonstrated our Britannian expansionist attitude by crushing their direct neighbors. It is best to assume the enemy to not be a fool. The moment we take a port in Australia, we will have made our intentions clear. Why wouldn't they formulate an adequate response?
Would you be willing to point out which groups you think we should go after as military targets first? I hope I'm not wrong for assuming you want to take out/over one faction at a time, but your personal view on the order should help.
For some insight for my reasoning on hitting the west first, I'm of the opinion that hitting the Sons of Teach would make diplomacy with the Blood of L'Olannis more difficult, but absent that I recognize that they're a very good target too.
Essentially I think we can split the pirates into two broad categories.
Likely military conquests:
- Sons of Teach (1)
- Freelancers (3)
- Blades of Saladin (4)
- Children of Ching Shih (5)
With the Children as one of the great forces being open to maybe trying for the secret condition. Even though I think it will be too high a price. But I can be wrong about that.
Diplomatic/Secret Condition/Willing Subjugation:
- Crowns (2)
- Calico Cats (2)
- La Cosa Nostra (2)
- New Heaven (4)
- Blood (6)
With Calico and Cosa being open to military action, if the other way proves too difficult or time-intensive.
My personal plan would be to take the Sons' harbor, then focus on aligning the East with us and hopefully bringing the Crowns into our hands. That happens while we prepare for taking on the Freelancers. After that point, I hope, we should be able to go for the secret winning condition for New Haven. And at that point, we would be too powerful for any of them to contest us. But as stated above, I don't think we can actually plan that far ahead because too many variable are at play here.
Concerning the Blood, we do have a non-aggression treaty with them. And according to the dossier they have bad blood with the Sons. Combine these two things and I would expect the conquest to be a non-issue. Our cooperation regarding New Heaven should have given us some lee-way either way. I see more the issue of us taking a port itself be a factor than the geographical factor, they had the Britannian Area at their doorstep for quite some time or since forever. Therefore, it should not be a big change to them.
Okay, your order helped me better understand your arguments. I also realized late last night that Area 9 is right by the Blood, so they probably wouldn't be as freaked out by us taking the Sons of Teach's port as I was thinking. I'm personally of the opinion we'll be able to take the west coast faster than we can get the east, but I could easily be underestimating the resistance we'll face. It'd be much easier to tell one way or the other after we take our first port.
But after a good night's sleep, I have come around to your view enough that if the Blood won't strongly react to us taking out the Sons of Teach, then that's definitely the best first port.
I don't necessarily agree with not pursuing another military target until we lock down the east coast, but that's something that needs more data to really know one way or another.
Sorry about ignoring basically everything else you said, but I kinda stopped believing in the Blades as the best first port myself while arguing it but I had already spent enough effort on the post to keep going, lol
Honest question. Can we ask after all secret conditions for the pirate factions? Or is it restricted to one per question? I just don't remember i you put a limit on it or not. And a quick search did not find anything.
To be fair, we really only need the secret condition for the Big 3 and we already have one of them. Heck, we might not even need the Blood's but it'll be much more convenient to have it than not.
Personal opinions on the pirate factions secret conditions:
Crowns - no need to ask as we likely are aware of it already (the shares, most likely);
La Cosa Nostra - arguably would be worth trying to find their secret condition in order to absorb them, as they could boost our Intrigue even higher. Also, if the governor of Area 8 is dependent on them for some services, absorbing them would give us more leverage over him;
Calico Cats - I doubt the thread is interested in absorbing them over destroying them, even though going for the former option might be a good way to secure ourselves some more income (even if we do away with some of the offered activities);
Sons of Teach - currently the most agreed upon choice for first strike and conquest, so we don't really need the secret condition here;
The Blood of L'Olonnais/Southern Independent Colonies - secret condition may or may not have something to do with our secret alliance we have going with their leader, but it might be prudent to ask just to be safe and so that we have a better idea on how feasable the alliance is going to be;
New Heaven - we already know their secret condition OOC;
Children of Ching Shih - it may be worth trying to get their secret condition, but we could just as well just use Diplomacy and Intrigue to weaken them enough so that we can attack them;
The Blades of Saladin - weak enough that we can likely take them on through conquest, once we can get a safe enough route;
Freelance Raiders - no real need for the secret condition, as we can fragment them via Intrigue and get whatever may be of interest from them that way, then we can just go for invasion.
Honestly I'm not sure if there isn't another option for the Sons of Teach, they are conventional pirates after all, which likely means that their port is likely a shadowport. Us showing up in force probably will lead to a quick scuffle but depending on how smart these pirates are they'd likely either flee, or simply set themselves up as Private Military Contractors in our territory and compete with the Crowns. If we wanted to make a counterweight to the Crowns that would be our opportunity.
Pretty much I agree. But I think we will need to go for more Intrigue and underhanded actions than Diplomacy/Stewardship to get those shares (at least to get the majority of shares). That is because 20% of the shares was on the same level as getting 30k income over 10 years or 20k up front.
Calico Cats - I doubt the thread is interested in absorbing them over destroying them, even though going for the former option might be a good way to secure ourselves some more income (even if we do away with some of the offered activities);
I myself am more interested in a hostile takeover with the goal of reforming their port into a Las Vegas type city. But before the takeover we should use some Intrigue actions to gain blackmail from them. We might be lucky and get some dirt on some of the Crowns shareholders like the nobles of Tasmania.
I'm almost convinced to go for them. But I'm unsure if we should do it this turn or next after we start the defensive Stewardship project and ground force expansion combined with naval assault training this turn (and maybe put Jeager on the Australian hazard project if Milly will have a Stewardship project to build a KMF/Aerospace development complex in her options to lower the DC of such actions instead of the Diplomacy action to see a girl about a robot). Since they have the hardest nut to crack when it comes to ports of the minor groups since they have heavy ships on station all the time supported by fixed defenses. A shinobi infiltration might help there disabling them at the right moment.
One interesting observation that I think has been pointed out by someone though I don't remember who anymore (might have even been our QM), is that some of the pirate faction leaders are potentially future landed nobility of Australia under Lelouch's rule. If the conquest succeeds and he manages to stake his claim as the Emperor/King/etc. of Australia with the international perception of authority to do that in the first place, that is.
Anyway, that should be one pretty easy way of getting the pirates to side with us, if they don't hate everything Britannian as the default. Might be actually the Sons of Teach secret win condition, considering how pragmatic they seem to be. Also, there shouldn't be that much of a difference between Britannian "frontier" nobles and pirates, so it wouldn't be even that much of a shift for most of them.
It's been a while so can someone explain to me what are these 'conditions' please? Form what I got from the conversations they are the conditions needed for a faction to willingly submit to us but I would rather not base my knowledge on a pure guess.
It's been a while so can someone explain to me what are these 'conditions' please? Form what I got from the conversations they are the conditions needed for a faction to willingly submit to us but I would rather not base my knowledge on a pure guess.
Condition is generally referring to "win condition". Secret conditions refer to various things we've found out OOC such as the secret trick to taking over New Heaven or how Cornelia wants to re-establish the Russian empire. In the context of Australia and the pirates, it's generally referring to the former over the latter.
We also talk about obvious conditions like "sink the ships, occupy the port, and implement standard Britannian integration of the territory" too, although they're summed up as mixes of martial/diplomacy/intrigue options
