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Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%

  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%
  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
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Asael said:
So the plan is... to go all yandere on Kyouko?.

I think I'm going to sit this out for a bit. Here's hoping there isn't another tie.
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I'd hardly call this Yandere. I mean she's not even murdering anyone. This is stalking, but stalking isn't yandere by itself.

Elder Haman said:
As for Rumors and Repercussions, I was hoping to setup Mariko and Ayako as a stealth/clairvoyant team and maybe use it as a bonus to scouting area 12 or 11. (Ayako's wish was to always have her arrows hit their target - she was in the archery club and wanted to be beat the other girls who were always better then her.)
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I can put them down as Stealth and Clairvoyant, but that itself is going to be the Part 1 bonus, assigning them wish magic (since that isn't normally selectable).

That's convenient for you since you were using 2 Clairvoyants for dispatch and only had 1 free for Clairvoyant scouting, and only one Stealth at all.
 
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inverted_helix said:
I'd hardly call this Yandere. I mean she's not even murdering anyone. This is stalking, but stalking isn't yandere by itself.

I can put them down as Stealth and Clairvoyant, but that itself is going to be the Part 1 bonus, assigning them wish magic (since that isn't normally selectable).

That's convenient for you since you were using 2 Clairvoyants for dispatch and only had 1 free for Clairvoyant scouting, and only one Stealth at all.
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Okay, in that case let's put them down as Stealth and Clairvoyant.

And let's have those two scout area 12. Makes sense as they are down there anyways and probably know more about the surrounding territories.

EDIT: Updated my vote for this.
 
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Asael said:
So the plan is... to go all yandere on Kyouko?.

I think I'm going to sit this out for a bit. Here's hoping there isn't another tie.
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For the hunting parts of the plan we are tied.

There are two votes for @Kinematics plan. See here.

Here is @notgreat's plan.

Here is my plan, which basically has the same hunting plan as notgreat's but uses the extra girls differently.

Differences between the plans:

Kyouko Approach:

My plan and Kinematics uses Cooking Stalker as proposed by @Kinematics

My plan adds a bit of explanation up front.

notgreat does not specify a method of approaching Kyouko

I might be willing to try a different method if someone can come up with one. But I'm out of ideas.

Hunting Methods:

notgreat and my hunting plan are in agreement and uses Pack Hunting w/ Kevlar Clothing to provide 0% chance of injury and gain a net +4 grief cubes. There are 6 veterans left over to do other things besides hunting.

Kinematics plan uses Pair Hunting w/ Kevlar Clothing to result in 20% chance of at least one injury, and 6% chance of at least one death, for a gain of net +0 grief cubes. However, he has 9 Vets, 1 Green, and 0.5 Mami left over to do other things besides hunting.

Other things besides Hunting:

notgreat uses 5 of his extra vets to scout, and 1 for the Group Sports day to raise morale.

My plan uses 3 vets to scout, and 3 vets (Stealth, Clairvoyance, and Mind Reader) to investigate why the demon strength in our urban area is increasing, when according to what we know, it shouldn't.

Kinematics uses 3 vets (Stealth, Clairvoyance, and Mind Reader) to investigate why the demon strength in our urban area is increasing, when according to what we know, it shouldn't. He uses 1 Vet for the Groups Sports day to raise morale. The remaining 5 Vets and 1 Green make 3 attempts at diplomacy (in areas we have not scouted).

notgreat has mentioned being willing to do some investigation of demon strength changes, but not to the extent of 3 Vets. He has not yet updated his plan.

Kinematics believes that repeated diplomacy attempts are mathematically more likely to succeed then a scouting attempt followed by a diplomacy attempt. My response is that Kinematics' math is assuming that a failed diplomacy attempt does not have a negative effect on future diplomacy attempts, which I suspect is a false assumption. Thus I prefer to scout first.

That's the summary of where things stand now. @notgreat and @Kinematics do you all have anything to add?

Calling all players:
@Carinthium - @Mecrazyfang - @LightMage - @FixerUpper - @Diomedon - @mastigos - @Crow - @wtdtd - @landcollector - @veekie - @Omegastar - @Omegahugger - @drake_azathoth - @Catty Nebulart - @Chimeraguard - @Trent01 - @cyberswordsmen - @Asael

Time to vote!
 
Elder Haman said:
notgreat uses 5 of his extra vets to scout, and 1 for the Group Sports day to raise morale.
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Recheck my plan. I swapped over to 3 scouts for doing investigation. Keeping 2 scouts (for area 12) and 1 morale action (inviting Kyouko and spending 0.5 cubes for magic emotion control to further raise morale and convince Kyouko)

Also, Kinematic's plan has a 0% chance of death assuming enemy action does not increase. Since he has less people hunting he can afford to get both sets of clothes, which makes up for the other losses. The only problems with that plan IMHO is that the diplomacy is all going to rural zones (which are horribly inefficient to harvest), we're still below our GC minimum, and the Mami admin action is handled inefficiently.

I'm actually considering switching over to something close his hunting setup, since it makes a lot more sense given 3 people investigating should hopefully prevent any further increases in lethality.
 
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Yeah, redid the math, pairs+full clothing is far better. Casualties in the ~0.1 average range. Also, I messed up the math on the Rural territory last time.

[X] Administration is a job in itself: Alternatively Mami could just spend less of her time on a normal activity load and instead focus more time on her administrative work. She just needs a bit more time in the day.
Cost: .5 Mami; Reward: Remove Overworked.
[X] Talk to Kyouko, she'll come around eventually surely.
Cost: .5 Mami; Reward: Variable; Chance of Success: ???

[X]Upkeep: 11 Veteran, 7 Green, 1 Associate

Expected net cubes: +3
Expected casualties: 0 (true for up to +1 total demon strength due to enemy action)
[X] Armor up, Kevlar Clothes x12 = $12,000, -4% casualties
[X] Armor up, Kevlar Vest x11 = $6,600, -2% casualties
[X] Urban- Hunting Pairs: 11.5 vets
-[X](1.6*1.5)*(11.5*1.5)=41.4
[X] Kyouko's territory (urban)- 1 green, 0.5 vet(Dispersed Hunting)
-[X] (2*1.5)*(0.5*1.5+1)=5.25, cap at 4, -2 Kyouko's cut
[X] Rural- Hunting Pairs: 1 vet
-[X](1.2*1.2)*(1.5)=2.16, cap at 2

9 vet/0 green remaining

[X] Group sports day: 1 vet
-[X] Invite Kyouko, have Kaoru Gima do some magic-enhanced singing (0.5 cube)
[X] Scout Area 7: 1 vet
[X] Scout Area 9: 1 vet
[X] Scout Area 10: 1 vet
[X] Scout Area 12: 2 vet
-[X] Send Mariko (Stealth) and Ayako (Clairvoyance) since they are local to Iwata and should know the area best.
[X] Border patrol/analysis, 3 vets (see other people's fluff, bring in QB)

Expected debt ~$3k, easily paid off next turn with interest owed around $50 (20% yearly interest = ($3,000*20%)/12=$50
Source


Things I'm still hoping to be statted options:
1) better reporting on demons
2) QB analysis for demon strengths (related to 1)
3) special power scouting

If any of those open up, expect my scouting setup to change.

edit: can't buy half a vest, have to go a bit further into debt.
edit2: Kyouko's territory is at -10 to -15. Green doing distributed has a -1% chance of casualties, totally safe.
Total monetary costs from armor are $19,200. We are currently at $10,300 and will gain $18,400 from our gathering (assuming courier business does not recover further) but lose $12,560 to upkeep. This puts us at -$3,060. Pay if off next turn and we'll have paid $51 in interest.

edit3: Kinematics current plan is incorrectly calculated, and needs 11 urban pair hunters.
edit4: Remembered we have a vest still, debt now at $2,460 for $41 interest.
edit5: Just realized I had the math for pair hunting in Kyouko's territory. Not sure what to swap though, any suggestions? Right now I'm just overharvesting but with a cap, which defeats the purpose. I can get 1 green free by spending 0.5 more veteran, or we can go 1.5 greens but that 0.5 would have to come from the pressganged section or the group that hates Kyouko (and I don't want to risk something bad happening there, getting Kyouko on our side is basically what we're planning around)
 
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Sorry, I'm a little strapped for time and parsing through plans here is always WOW, I NEED TO THINK ABOUT THIS REALLY HARD.

I'll be back by December 10th! Hopefully bearing omakes as gifts!
 
notgreat said:
BTW, it's definitely worthwhile to keep Mami doing paperwork. She's worth 2x a green and 1.33x a veteran, and it only costs her 0.5 actions to do the paperwork (equivalent to 1 green or 0.67 veterans).
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I was wanting to train someone up to handle the paperwork so that Mami (once she finally catches the Kyouko) can also spend time training vets up to Elite. Though Kyouko is also an option there, I was holding off on presuming we'd have full control over her on that due to how difficult the whole thing has been. Technically not needed til the Kyouko assignment is out of the way, but I was figuring getting the vet some experience could help them out later (no idea if that's the case or not, but since the green could potentially make mistakes, figured the vet could potentially improve).

Elder Haman said:
I think it's simpler to just do Pack Hunting this turn. Get to the month's supply. Figure out what is going on with the Demon Strength. Pack Hunt again next month, diplomacy the areas we scouted, and resolve the poaching problem.
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Going full armored pair hunting, can drop the risk to 0% for them as well. Also, 10 pairs vs 15(?) pack hunters from the previous month means that if the embezzlement probe is the real source of the problem, there's a 1/3 chance that whoever was embezzling cubes is no longer in the hunting packs, so wouldn't be able to pocket any more that way.

notgreat said:
Also, we want to expand into urban areas, since then their current demon strength will average out with ours. For example, joining with Area 11 would immediately lower our demon strength by 1. Pack hunting in urban territory is still (slightly) better than solo hunting in rural. (as long as we keep running dispatch)
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Think I'll agree with you on this approach. However, if we're not going to expand there this turn, but instead scout area 12 first (since doing so will apparently raise the bonus for the combined areas)... hmm. Will need to think it over.

Also, area 11 was noted as having a 10% bonus from the scouting, but inverted_helix said that bonuses decay at 10% per turn. Are we going to lose that entire bonus by attempting to increase it with the area 12 scout?
Elder Haman said:
Okay, in that case let's put them down as Stealth and Clairvoyant.

And let's have those two scout area 12. Makes sense as they are down there anyways and probably know more about the surrounding territories.
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Will add this in as well.

Elder Haman said:
Kinematics plan uses Pair Hunting w/ Kevlar Clothing to result in 20% chance of at least one injury, and 6% chance of at least one death, for a gain of net +0 grief cubes.
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Revised version is at 0% casualty rate. Still net +0.

notgreat said:
The only problems with that plan IMHO is that the diplomacy is all going to rural zones (which are horribly inefficient to harvest), we're still below our GC minimum, and the Mami admin action is handled inefficiently.
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I'll probably change it over to an attempt at area 7, then (have to check if we've scouted there before and been chased out, though), with 0.5 Mami assist.

Minor aside: I'm not clear on the effects of demon strength rising on risk of casualties. Is the overhunting value being calculated on a sliding window, or only per month unit? If per month, only the last handful of gathered cubes can cause an increase in strength. So, I'm not sure to what extent enemy action affecting demon strength can affect the results within a single month.
 
Kinematics said:
Going full armored pair hunting, can drop the risk to 0% for them as well. Also, 10 pairs vs 15(?) pack hunters from the previous month means that if the embezzlement probe is the real source of the problem, there's a 1/3 chance that whoever was embezzling cubes is no longer in the hunting packs, so wouldn't be able to pocket any more that way.
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I'd like to point out that they could just be hunting in their off hours.

Kinematics said:
Also, area 11 was noted as having a 10% bonus from the scouting, but inverted_helix said that bonuses decay at 10% per turn. Are we going to lose that entire bonus by attempting to increase it with the area 12 scout?
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Can count in this case since the areas are connected that the decay will be delayed by the second territory scouting action.

Kinematics said:
Minor aside: I'm not clear on the effects of demon strength rising on risk of casualties. Is the overhunting value being calculated on a sliding window, or only per month unit? If per month, only the last handful of gathered cubes can cause an increase in strength. So, I'm not sure to what extent enemy action affecting demon strength can affect the results within a single month.
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I don't quite understand the question here.

Demon strength is a direct additive to the base casualty chance. So it's base casualty chance for that hunting type + demon strength - casualty reduction modifiers.
 
inverted_helix said:
I don't quite understand the question here.

Demon strength is a direct additive to the base casualty chance. So it's base casualty chance for that hunting type + demon strength - casualty reduction modifiers.
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notgreat is stating that enemy action that might affect demon strength could potentially affect the hunting risks during the month for which data has already been set. For example, implying that the +10 that demon strength is currently at could potentially become +11 before the end of the month, and affect calculations within that remaining time.

Essentially, are all the risk calculations done all at once using the previous month's stats, or are they calculated progressively over the course of the month, allowing for changes within the month to affect the risk values?
 
Kinematics said:
Minor aside: I'm not clear on the effects of demon strength rising on risk of casualties. Is the overhunting value being calculated on a sliding window, or only per month unit? If per month, only the last handful of gathered cubes can cause an increase in strength. So, I'm not sure to what extent enemy action affecting demon strength can affect the results within a single month.
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Here's the order of operations AFAIK. It's applied once per month.
1) cubes harvested calculated/rolled
2) find new demon strength
3) take average of old and new demon strength. Use that average calculate lethality for that month.
4) roll to see any deaths (possibly using rolls from 1, not sure, but this is when people die)

Also, your plan still is only buying armor for 10 pair hunters but needs 11 to get the harvest you've calculated.

edit: Also, you're spending 11 vets in upkeep and 12-13 hunting, which leaves you with 10 or 9 veterans free respectively, not 7.
 
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Ok, we tried to scout area 7 back on turn 19, but were run off, no info gained. I'll send a pair of vets plus Mami there, while sending the vet plus green to area 5 on a cold call. Maybe be lucky and Mami's diplomacy bonus will have gone up from all the experience she's gained trying to recruit Kyouko. :)

Even though the info we have on area 5 (from turn 17) is long outdated for a bonus, I doubt the situation has changed much. Either the girl died and there's a new one in the same bad situation, or the girl made it to vet, but still has an unpleasantly large area to cover.
 
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notgreat said:
Just realized I had the math for pair hunting in Kyouko's territory. Not sure what to swap though, any suggestions? Right now I'm just overharvesting but with a cap, which defeats the purpose. I can get 1 green free by spending 0.5 more veteran, or we can go 1.5 greens but that 0.5 would have to come from the pressganged section or the group that hates Kyouko (and I don't want to risk something bad happening there, getting Kyouko on our side is basically what we're planning around)
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I went with using the green in a diplomacy effort, and used only a single vet in Kyouko's territory, since that's all that's needed. Trying to split a green and a vet here doesn't seem worth the effort.
 
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