Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
EDIT: Oops, Rural, so no dispatch bonus, so that's 1.2 (base) * 1.5 (Vets) = 1.8
No dispatch bonus, but it doesn't say anything about excluding the demon finding training bonus (20%).


Is the Mami bonus on recruitment available even if Mami isn't part of the recruitment? If she has to be there, does she have to spend a full action, or does a half a Mami count?
 
I feel kind of like I'm failing if you have free meguca power with nothing to do with it, you do have research projects available. I'm open to more suggestions on general manpower uses though.
Thing is, we have three resources to deal with on a month-by-month basis (cubes, megucamonths, and $$$). It's relatively easy to convert megucamonths to dollars (though it does take a few turns of investment), but converting megucamonths to cubes is limited by our territory. Right now we also have a super-efficient conversion of cubes->megucamonths, which is awkward since it's the former we're running short on but we can use the megucamonths to get more territory to get more cubes over a couple of turns of diplomacy.
Research is a great way to invest cubes and megucamonths, but right now we don't have any good way to invest money and megucamonths (speaking of which, we may want to get some more meguca on money-gathering now that we've got a good option to spend ~10k more on to finish upgrading our armor)
edit: That, and scouting is important. Just like research though, it's never absolutely crucial to get done that turn.

No dispatch bonus, but it doesn't say anything about excluding the demon finding training bonus (20%).
This is correct.
Is the Mami bonus on recruitment available even if Mami isn't part of the recruitment? If she has to be there, does she have to spend a full action, or does a half a Mami count?
The bonus is only there if Mami is there. If we're spending 0.5 Mami I'd assume that we'd get 1/2 the bonus, but that's not guaranteed.


@Elder Haman
Any reason for hunting Kyouko's territory like that? Either go at it efficiently and spend 1 vet solo hunting =4.95 or train up the greens with 1.5 pair. There's no point in wasting half a month of training.
Also, that's not how I was setting up the equations. You want (1.6*1.5*1.1)*(0.5*1.5+1)=4.62. (base*multipliers)*(Elite*2+vets*1.5+greens)
 
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No dispatch bonus, but it doesn't say anything about excluding the demon finding training bonus (20%).
The 20% demon finding does apply for rural. So a pair hunting vet is 1.2 (demon finding) *1.2 (pair hunting rural) *1.5 (veteran) = 2.16

Is the Mami bonus on recruitment available even if Mami isn't part of the recruitment? If she has to be there, does she have to spend a full action, or does a half a Mami count?
Mami has to be there, and it neatly halves the bonus if she spends half her time on it.

Though honestly been thinking of increasing Mami's bonus now. Partly because it's not as strong when you have so much manpower now, and partly because she has had a lot more experience with it now.

Thing is, we have three resources to deal with on a month-by-month basis (cubes, megucamonths, and $$$). It's relatively easy to convert megucamonths to dollars (though it does take a few turns of investment), but converting megucamonths to cubes is limited by our territory. Right now we also have a super-efficient conversion of cubes->megucamonths, which is awkward since it's the former we're running short on but we can use the megucamonths to get more territory to get more cubes over a couple of turns of diplomacy.
Honestly that makes it sound like I'm doing a good job at running a resource constrained system. Though don't see how that connects with you having free meguca and nothing to do with them.

How long does a scouting bonus last?
Decays 10% per turn after the first.
 
So (excluding Mami bonus):

Pure recruitment, base 30% plus 5% average chance from bribe. Cumulative chance of succeeding:
1: 35.00%
2: 57.75%
3: 72.54%
4: 82.15%

Scout + recruitment (w/bribe) (factoring in chance of scout success)
1: 00.00% (scout turn) (possible penalty on fail?)
2: 45.55% (30% scout bonus)
3: 58.98% (20% scout bonus)
4: 63.94% (10% scout bonus)

[also: scout bonus is +30%, right? thought I saw that, but now I can't find it]

So this would imply scouting is a waste of time.
 
Honestly that makes it sound like I'm doing a good job at running a resource constrained system. Though don't see how that connects with you having free meguca and nothing to do with them.
Our megucamonth sinks (after we've done our cube-gathering):
1) Research- Requires additional cubes (and is thus nonviable unless we have a cube surplus)
2) Training- Already completed all available
3) Money gathering- we're already at net +5k/month, while more would be helpful we've got enough to make do, and we can finish buying heavy armor for everyone in just another 2-3 turns.
4) Scouting/Diplomacy

We have things to do with our meguca- scouting. We don't really have anything else to put them on, after all (since cubes are in such limited supply)

So this would imply scouting is a waste of time.
Scout bonus varies, but averages ~20% from what we've seen. Also, I think it doesn't decay if you interact with them (though this was never directly stated, we also have never actually failed a diplomacy before last turn) It didn't use to be a waste back when scouting took 1 person, but now that it takes 2 it usually is (aside from it giving us information about the meguca/carry capacity)
 
Our megucamonth sinks (after we've done our cube-gathering):

We have things to do with our meguca- scouting. We don't really have anything else to put them on, after all (since cubes are in such limited supply)
Hmm I suppose you have a bit of a point here then. Any other thoughts on what meguca sinks I could create?

Scout bonus varies, but averages ~20% from what we've seen. Also, I think it doesn't decay if you interact with them (though this was never directly stated, we also have never actually failed a diplomacy before last turn) It didn't use to be a waste back when scouting took 1 person, but now that it takes 2 it usually is (aside from it giving us information about the meguca/carry capacity)
Well that's easily enough resolved by increasing the cost of diplomacy to match if you like.
 
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@Elder Haman
Any reason for hunting Kyouko's territory like that? Either go at it efficiently and spend 1 vet solo hunting =4.95 or train up the greens with 1.5 pair. There's no point in wasting half a month of training.
Also, that's not how I was setting up the equations. You want (1.6*1.5*1.1)*(0.5*1.5+1)=4.62. (base*multipliers)*(Elite*2+vets*1.5+greens)

I want to be above the 4 cutoff, as this is Kyouko's territory I don't want to mess up with a bad roll and under hunt her territory. Still like using a Green there to train them.

So (excluding Mami bonus):

Pure recruitment, base 30% plus 5% average chance from bribe. Cumulative chance of succeeding:
1: 35.00%
2: 57.75%
3: 72.54%
4: 82.15%

Scout + recruitment (w/bribe) (factoring in chance of scout success)
1: 00.00% (scout turn) (possible penalty on fail?)
2: 45.55% (30% scout bonus)
3: 58.98% (20% scout bonus)
4: 63.94% (10% scout bonus)

[also: scout bonus is +30%, right? thought I saw that, but now I can't find it]

So this would imply scouting is a waste of time.

You are assuming that there is no negative penalty for failing a diplomacy check. I doubt that is the case.
 
Scout bonus varies, but averages ~20% from what we've seen. Also, I think it doesn't decay if you interact with them (though this was never directly stated, we also have never actually failed a diplomacy before last turn) It didn't use to be a waste back when scouting took 1 person, but now that it takes 2 it usually is (aside from it giving us information about the meguca/carry capacity)
The table for a non-decaying scouting bonus:
1: 00.00% (scout turn) (possible penalty on fail?)
2: 45.55% (30% scout bonus)
3: 61.42% (30% scout bonus)
4: 67.00% (30% scout bonus)

Still not as good as blind recruitment.

You are assuming that there is no negative penalty for failing a diplomacy check. I doubt that is the case.
True, though I also ignored the penalty for the failed scouting runs. Also depends on what it takes to get a penalty. If they just say, "Not interested right now.", and we go back the next month, there shouldn't be a penalty.
 
Dropped the research and revised other bits. Stealing some of Haman's write-ins (though editing since I'm staying with pairs instead of packs).

[X] Have a full team meeting. Complement everyone on the hard work they have been doing. Discuss how we expect to have a full months supply of grief cubes at the end of this month. Point out that Demon Strength has been increasing unexpectedly in the urban areas. We suspect poaching, but are not sure. Ask that everyone pay close attention this month to see if they see anything suspicious. Also, to be complete and exact in their hunting reports so that we can identify where the problem is coming from.

[X] In order to reach a better state than we're in right now, we need to drop demon strength back to just average. Once we can do that, we'll be able to both reduce the number of girls hunting, while also increasing the number of cubes we can harvest. We'll be staying neutral on our current reserves until we can reach that point, after which we should have substantially better growth options.

[X] For now, to compensate for the extra Demon Strength we have ordered Kevlar clothing for hunters in the urban area. Compliment those that have been working jobs or on the courier service, and recognize them for their hard work. Point out that we are able to order the Kevlar clothing because of the money they have earned. Ask Taura, Sora, and Taya to stay after as you have need to discuss a special assignment with them.

[X] Sora and Taya are assigned investigation duty. Sora to use her stealth magic, and Taya to use her clairvoyance. Explain that we suspect poaching by other girls. They need to try several different tactics. Patrol outside of the main patrol routes we have are going on. Talk to our dispatch team, when they locate some demons instead of diverting hunters there, Sora and Taya go and just watch for 30 minutes, to see if anyone shows up when it appears that we are not going to show up for those Demons. We might have a stealth hunter that only goes after Demons we don't appear to be hunting. If they do find poachers, attempt to follow they and figure out where they are coming from. Taura will be assigned to carefully comb over hunting after action reports on Demon strength and see if she can find a pattern, or at least locate where the demons appear to be getting strongest, and then have Sora and Taya go stealthily patrol that area. Ask Tuara to come with us to our apartment to discuss the after action reports in more detail.

[X] After Mami and Taura are alone, Mami discuss with her the need for Taura to review last month's after action reports on hunting, as well as this months. Then explain that while we don't think this is the case, there is the possibility that this is not a poacher, but one or two of our own girls pocketing some extra grief cubes so they can have their own stockpile. Taura should review the after action reports for both this month and last month, and use it as an excuse to interview the girls involved to ask them questions. Find out if any of them have been hunting demons on the side and stockpiling cubes for themselves. Carefully talk to other girls and see if she can find out if this is a problem without letting on that she is trying to find out about this.


Assets: 1 Elite Meguca (Mami +10% persuasive, Overworked -1 to ALL rolls), 33 Veteran Meguca, 8 Green Meguca, 1 Associate

[X] Upkeep: 11 Veteran, 7 Green, 1 Associate


Hunting:
[X] Demon Forecasting, cost 1 grief cube, x1.1 for grief cubes found.

Rural area:

A pair of vets spending half time there would be 1.2 * 1.5 * 1.2 * 2 * 0.5 = 2.16

[X] Hunting Pairs (1.6 base cubes; 16% base casualty)
-[X] Rural: Base modified to 1.2, dispatch bonus does not apply.
-[X] 1.0 vets (-19% casualty). Harvest: 2.16 (cap at 2)

Urban area:

[X] Hunting Pairs (1.6 base cubes; 16% base casualty)
-[X] Cubes per vet: 1.6 * 1.5 * 1.5 = 3.6
-[X] Outfit with kevlar clothing + vest.
-[X] 10 vets (-26% casualty). Harvest: 39.6 (cap at 39)

Kyouko area:

[X] Solo hunting (2.0 base cubes, 20% base casualty)
-[X] Cubes per vet: 2.0 * 1.5 * 1.5 = 4.5 (cap at 4)
-[X] 1 vet (-16% casualty; should be safe at current demon strength level) (Use promoted green)


Total grief cubes expected: 42


2% casualty rate on 11 vets means a 20% chance of at least one injury, assuming they're all rolled individually. The more hunters we have, the less we can afford even those tiny casualty chances, but at this point it's still within my comfort range.


Meguca available after the above (including writins): 1 Mami, 7 veterans, 1 green

Misc:

-- Really want to free Mami up to start training up more potential Elites.

[X] Administrative Help: Mami is starting to seriously struggle to handle the load she's operating under, she could use someone helping her out with scheduling and setting up routes.
Cost: 1 Meguca per month (Green or Veteran will do, though a Green may be more prone to mistakes); Reward: Remove Overworked.
-[X] Veteran (consider it a 'promotion' for a veteran who has shown a propensity for management)

[X] Talk to Kyouko: Cooking Stalker Mami.
Cost: 0.5 Mami; Reward: Variable; Chance of Success: ???

[X] Group sports day: You'll take the time to organize a full group outing to have some fun in a park and play some games, it will have to be fully mundane though as going out to somewhere secluded likely would take too much time.
Cost: 1 Veteran Meguca (representative of one day for everyone essentially, since you are now mostly vets); Reward: Increase to morale (group cohesion)


Expansion stuff:

[X] Scout Area 12. Use Mariko and Ayako (Clairvoyant/Stealth pair).
Cost: 2 Veteran

[X] Expand territory 7, by diplomacy: If you can convince them to join your group you may be able to safely incorporate others' territories.
Cost: 2 Veteran; Reward: Meguca from territory recruited, new territory; Chance of Success: 30% (Mami bonus applicable)
-[X] Add: 0.5 Mami
-[X] Addon, Bribery: Giving the girls some money might help them realize just how good for them cooperation could be.
Cost: $150 per girl in the territory; Reward: +1d10% success chance

[X] Expand territory 5, by diplomacy: If you can convince them to join your group you may be able to safely incorporate others' territories.
Cost: 1 Green, 1 Veteran; Reward: Meguca from territory recruited, new territory; Chance of Success: 30% (Mami bonus applicable)
-[X] Addon, Bribery: Giving the girls some money might help them realize just how good for them cooperation could be.
Cost: $150 per girl in the territory; Reward: +1d10% success chance


Purchases:

[X] Armor up, Kevlar Clothes
Cost: $1000 per girl, Reward: 4% casualty reduction (does not stack with Leather)
10x suits = $10,000

[X] Armor up, Kevlar Vest
Cost: $600 per girl, Reward: 2% casualty reduction (stacks with others)
9x vests = $5400

Total: $15,400

Bribes: $300 - $900, depending on populations. May end up with a total cash shortfall of up to $160, which can be covered by credit card if needed.
 
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Why a preference for a plan that has a 20% chance of injury and a 6% chance of death over a plan that has 0% chance of injury?

Guess I'll change my hunting plan to match notgreat's as that is better then risking death when we don't need to.
 
Actually, on risks, is either an 01 or a 100 (depending on the direction of the rolling system) always considered a failure? That is, is a 0% risk a true 0%, or is it always a 1%?
 
Checking the previous turn, the plan called for urban pack hunting, and based on the previous stats (+7 demon strength) the casualty risk should have been 0% (-1%, actually). However the most recent update notes one veteran as coming dangerously close to disaster. That implies that there is a casualty risk even at 0%.

If 1% is the true minimum, then 14 units will have an overall injury risk rating of 13%.
 
Checking the previous turn, the plan called for urban pack hunting, and based on the previous stats (+7 demon strength) the casualty risk should have been 0% (-1%, actually). However the most recent update notes one veteran as coming dangerously close to disaster. That implies that there is a casualty risk even at 0%.
0% is 0%. That's why it was dangerously close but not actually disaster. If you have 0% chance then even a 1 doesn't kill you.

Though honestly it probably would have made some sense to make the last 1% real hard to get rid of (to represent tripping or something I guess), but that's not the way I've been running it.
 
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It's flavor.

It means we rolled really badly, but the risk was low enough that the vet didn't get injured.

Same thing happened back in an early turn when Mami rolled a 2.
 
Ok, if I add the Kyuubey bonus to mine, drop to 11 girls in pairs runs, and buy 11 kevlar clothing outfits and 5 kevlar vests (same $14k as the pack setup), casualty risk drops to 10% and net cube harvest is the same as the pack setup (42), while freeing up 3 girls for other stuff compared to the pack config.

Sending one girl on an illegal money run would get enough for vests for the remaining girls, dropping casualty risk to 0. Less happy about that, but it's an option for no casualty risks.

Edit: Heck, can we get a 1 month loan from the bank for $3k? We'll have the money back by the following turn.
 
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Thoughts on sustainability.

Upkeep numbers are pretty much fixed (18 total meguca). Add another 1 for administration if we want to free Mami from that duty.

Harvest currently requires a minimum of 11-12 (depending on Kyuubey bonus) for survivability.

However if demon strength was reduced to +0, solo hunting would be doable at 0% risk by vets. That would then require either 10 hunters without a Kyuubey bonus, or 9 hunters with the Kyuubey bonus, but with a 2 cube loss (1 of which is the payment to Kyuubey).

Excluding the Kyuubey option, it basically comes down to 12 in pairs getting 43 cubes vs 10 solo getting 45 cubes.

Adding 2 additional units for hunting the (current) rural and Kyouko areas, that puts the minimum for total hunters at 12 to 14. Total return would be 47 to 49 cubes.

So minimum total for upkeep and hunting is 31 to 33 meguca.

With 42 total in the organization, that gives 9 to 11 who are free for 'other' activities.

1 unit's worth being assigned to a sports day or similar helps with morale and sanity, so assuming that. That leaves 8 to 10.

Nominal costs in cubes is 42. A buffer of 3 assigned for grief spirals or increase in reserve stock would be 45. That leaves a net gain of 2 to 4 cubes per month, at best, that can be used for anything else.

All types of research require 2 to 3 cubes, which leaves very little room for any development.

For efficiency, we want to get to where we can reliably have solo hunters. To get -10 in demon strength, that requires hunting a deficit of 22 or 23 cubes. Due to the indicated rounding, we could do it in three turns by hunting -8, -8, -4; or -6, -6, -8. Barring grief spirals, total net cube gain would be -1, -1, +3 for the first, and +1, +1, -1 for the second.

After that, we can reduce the number of hunters by 2 while increasing cube collection by 2.

While the goal of getting net reserve parity is good, I think we'll be better served reducing demon strength first (with the assumption that we can also find the cause of the recent increases and fix that as well). After that we'll have a higher net gain per turn, which will be more useful in the long run.

So I'm considering:
10 pairs with Kyuubey bonus gives 39.6 (cap at 39) - 1 = 38, which is -7 (net 0 to reserves) for us, -6 for the region. We can do that for two turns, then clear the penalty entirely on the turn after that.

Also, total cost to kevlar them all up (clothes + vest) would be $15,400, which is just barely within viability, I think, but gives 0 casualty risk.

Edit: Fix stupid math error.
 
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I think it's simpler to just do Pack Hunting this turn. Get to the month's supply. Figure out what is going on with the Demon Strength. Pack Hunt again next month, diplomacy the areas we scouted, and resolve the poaching problem.

Then we can slowly get Demon Strength to go down over a couple months, drop to Pair Hunting, and continue dropping Demon Strength. Finally we get to were Solo Hunting is safe.

Girl's dying has negative morale effects which then cause grief spirals which then cause more deaths, which cause more morale problems. We need to avoid any morale issues.
 
Currently, greens hunting without armor get the following lethality in +0 urban territory (rural gets 1 less since dispatch isn't available)
solo: 9%
pair: 1%
pack: -3%

Vets get -5%, and we can armor up to -6%. If we pair hunt now and pay for full armor, we are at 0% given the current +10 territory.
However, with the enemy action still being there, we will still have a chance of casualties.

Also, we want to expand into urban areas, since then their current demon strength will average out with ours. For example, joining with Area 11 would immediately lower our demon strength by 1. Pack hunting in urban territory is still (slightly) better than solo hunting in rural. (as long as we keep running dispatch)

BTW, it's definitely worthwhile to keep Mami doing paperwork. She's worth 2x a green and 1.33x a veteran, and it only costs her 0.5 actions to do the paperwork (equivalent to 1 green or 0.67 veterans). Since the green has a chance of failure, it's more efficient to make Mami do it. (and once we get Kyouko and her bullshit x2 people power, we can spend 1 Kyouko to do the Elite training while the other does whatever)
Girl's dying has negative morale effects which then cause grief spirals which then cause more deaths, which cause more morale problems. We need to avoid any morale issues.
Deaths are bad, but one death isn't going to sink our morale down that far. It's like, half a morale point at most.

Some random fluff ideas:
In the Sports Day, invite Kyouko and have Kaoru Gima use Sing. That should be a bunch of bonuses. (we can spare a cube on her for a significant morale bonus/better chance to recruit Kyouko)
If we're scouting Area 12, we may want to send Sora (stealth) specifically. I don't think stealth magic will help that much in our observations for trying to track down the invaders. Come to think of it, could we just have our clairvoyants scout for us? No chance of detection that way, right?
 
BTW, it's definitely worthwhile to keep Mami doing paperwork. She's worth 2x a green and 1.33x a veteran, and it only costs her 0.5 actions to do the paperwork (equivalent to 1 green or 0.67 veterans). Since the green has a chance of failure, it's more efficient to make Mami do it. (and once we get Kyouko and her bullshit x2 people power, we can spend 1 Kyouko to do the Elite training while the other does whatever)
I figured it a fair balance. Since Mami is more capable than most of your girls and experienced with what she's doing so it only takes .5 of her time compared to 1 of anyone else, but certain things take specifically. The fact that people are somewhat split on this is a sign I balanced it right.

Come to think of it, could we just have our clairvoyants scout for us? No chance of detection that way, right?
I hadn't really thought of that. It's a fair point and should commensurately lower the cost since it's faster and somewhat better odds since you aren't there to be caught. Though will be limited by the availability of clairvoyants.

Keeping in mind of course that Stealth and Clairvoyance counter each other. So it's an oppositional roll if they have stealth. If you have Stealth magic and they don't and don't have clairvoyance, you have to really screw up to be detected. If you have Clairvoyance and they don't and they don't have Stealth, there's little preventing you from finding something (though it's not omniscience so they could keep moving and avoid a search pattern by chance).

Man this story just keeps on getting bigger and bigger then I planned. Not only this and the next bit, but Tangled Web was also all originally one Omake in my head. But then they got so big I figured I better split them up. In this case it was Mariko's backstory that got away from me. I kind of wanted to build her up as a reversed image of Kyouko. Instead of thinking that making a wish for someone else was a recipe for disaster, Mariko would experience a selfish wish destroying her family.

Also, wanted it to be a reminder that bunny-cat is still a dick, even in the kinder gentler world of the Law of Cycles.
Any chance you'll go back and write the second (third if you count the tangled web) part to this? I found it quite good. Especially the reversal of Kyouko.

Also I never got around to giving bonuses for it.
 
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If we're scouting Area 12, we may want to send Sora (stealth) specifically. I don't think stealth magic will help that much in our observations for trying to track down the invaders. Come to think of it, could we just have our clairvoyants scout for us? No chance of detection that way, right?

I want Sora on the job of figuring out what is going on with our area. I think that is a higher priority. If we had another stealth girl we could assign her.

Any chance you'll go back and write the second (third if you count the tangled web) part to this? I found it quite good. Especially the reversal of Kyouko.

Also I never got around to giving bonuses for it.

I was planning to. I actually have the second part to that with a rough outline, and an idea for Minako hunting in Kyouko's territory.

Bonuses... hmm... lets put Tangled Web in the bank for an intimidation bonus when we run into another large organization. Rumors that we are yakuza connected probably will help there, right?

As for Rumors and Repercussions, I was hoping to setup Mariko and Ayako as a stealth/clairvoyant team and maybe use it as a bonus to scouting area 12 or 11. (Ayako's wish was to always have her arrows hit their target - she was in the archery club and wanted to be beat the other girls who were always better then her.)
 
So the plan is... to go all yandere on Kyouko?.

I think I'm going to sit this out for a bit. Here's hoping there isn't another tie.
 
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