It's bad. Assuming we put in the effort to overhunt this turn, in order to put us near sustainability levels, we can't afford to take over another area, even if we had the intel on where to go, the transport to get there, and the wherewithal to take it. Which we don't, on any of those three cases. It's a massive diversion from our primary needs right now, and will continue to divert important meguca resources (ie: the actual trained and experienced meguca we have) in order to hold it, if holding it was even possible (considering that any area that's trivially conquerable would almost certainly have been taken over by one of the expansionist groups like the Junta). It's PvP, and we're not good at PvP, whereas any area that's not already under the control of a group is going to have a lot of PvP conflict. And then factor in the fleeing refugees that are flooding outward from Tokyo that can potentially impact DS and defensibility.
There's probably more reasons it's a bad idea, but even a superficial look at things makes it a poor choice.
Umm... it sounds to me more like you are just biased against this and so are dismissing it out of hand. Since all your initial objections are false.
1: You are planning to over hunt this turn, and attack the Eyeball this turn. How can attacking the Eyeball require less resources than taking over another area?
Now there is the argument that this is diverting resources away from the primary concern, and that's valid. On the other hand, if this diversion provides us with sufficient resources to make a more planned and effective attack on the Eyeball then it could be a worthwhile diversion. That's something that I think is worth actual discussion. We ought to crunch some numbers on it and see which approach is best.
2: We do have some intel. We know from Kyubey when we asked where there were Magical Girl organizations that there are a couple cities that have no organization at all. Meaning probably nothing bigger than 6 girls - if that. (Possibly as small as 3).
3: We obviously have the transport we need. It's called the train. We aren't destitute Tokyo refugees dependent on walking.
4: We clearly have the wherewithal to take it. If there are no groups bigger than 6, and 30 girls shows up in your territory hunting demons and driving up the DS, and they offer you money and cubes, are you going to attack them? It's a combination of threat of force (which is credible) combined with the carrot of improved living conditions. This kind of thing has happened in history countless times. They may be better at PvP, but they don't know that, and 5 to 1 odds is a lot for them to take. We can just avoid any elites too. Who says we have to take all the territory in a city?
5: We know that the Junta has not taken over everything, and we know that there are cities with zero magical girl organizations. (If someone could find the helix post that mentions that it would be helpful.)
6: We have the whole of Japan, we don't have to pick a place were Tokyo refugees have arrived yet.
These are superficial objections that are being brought up because of hidden concerns. They aren't the real reasons to object to an expansionist plan.
Let's talk about the real objections:
A: It's not in keeping with the ideals we are trying to push with the Serenes. Taking someone else's territory just because we need it, and because we are strong enough to do so is not what we want to encourage.
On the other hand, we aren't doing it because we want to be jerks, we are doing it because we have a massive influx of refugees. Why the refugees? Because we are trying to save Tokyo from being destroyed in a massive death toll for innocent humans. So... I think you could argue extenuating circumstances. We've even done this before, in the Iwata enclave.
B: It will cause problems in the future diplomatically, just like Iwata. This is almost certainly true, but maybe survival now is more important than that.
C: It's a diversion from the primary target. True but maybe it's the more effective way to do things. More effective means less girls die attacking the Eyeball.
Anyway, my broader point is that we shouldn't lock ourselves into picking one solution yet. Killing the Eyeball is an obvious approach, but we shouldn't get tunnel vision, and we should consider more lateral options. We should try and come up with as many solutions as we can, refine them, and then pick the best one after we refine the options. We shouldn't start with picking an option before exploring all the other possibilities.
I agree that attacking the Eyeball should be an option to consider. I'd call it option 1. And I'll work on trying to improve that plan too, and make that plan as effective as it possibly can. All I'm asking is that we also consider other options, and try to optimize those options as well so that we can try and figure out which plan is actually the best.
Here are all the options I've been able to come up with so far (including sub-variants).
Option 1: Kill the Eyeball
Benefits: Probably will reduce the difficulty of dealing with the remaining Youma (less intelligence directing them). Probably give a morale boost. Probably give us diplomacy bonuses. Eliminates the biggest threat. Probably will allow more hunting in Tokyo.
Drawbacks: Very dangerous, will likely be deaths. We don't have a lot of actionable intelligence on it yet. Doesn't really solve the problem of the refugees, or directly solve the cube shortage. Probably requires large purchases of cubes from Nagoya.
Option 1a: Attack at the start of the month, allowing us to hunt more in Tokyo once it has been killed.
Option 1b: Attack at the end of the month, allows us some time to prepare.
Option 1c: Attack at the start of next month, allows us more time to prepare, can bring more girls in the attacking force. More trained girls. From a cubes perspective, is this any different from attacking at the end of the previous month?
Option 2: Expansion. Seize lightly guarded territory (divided local girls) where we can hunt to provide cubes to our increasing population.
Benefits: Directly addresses the immediate need for more cubes. Gains in territory and political influence through conquest of new areas. Potential vehicle for gaining even more (reluctant) recruits. More efficient use of territory than current inhabitants, allowing a support for a greater number of girls. Less risk than most other options. Spreads out the Tokyo refugee problem over parts of Japan far away from Tokyo.
Drawbacks: Distasteful for us to risk engaging in PvP. Diversion from Tokyo focus. Future diplomatic issues (like the Coalition). Current diplomatic issues (offending Hino/Hiko)? Dangers of an unknown Elite, ect.
Option 2a: Immediately invade the areas we know lack organized girls
Option 2b: Focus on overhunting our territory this run, with scouting and diplomatic approaches in the various targets so we can invade early next turn with more intelligence.
Option 2c: Attempt to establish a permanent hold on the new territory, incorporate the existing local girls.
Option 2d: Just come in and overhunt the territory, do not attempt to hold it. Try to recruit the local girls after the fact ("an offer you can't refuse").
Option 3: Hibernation. Put a bunch of the greens into cold sleep, drastically reducing our costs.
Benefits: Lowest risk. Allows us to prioritize the most productive girls.
Drawbacks: Reduces our size, lose the benefits of meguca months. Morale difficulties, violates Serene traditions. Will make us less popular among refugees, increasing the pressure on other nearby organizations.
Variants?
Option 4: Attempt to seize part of Tokyo from the Youma. (Probably the North West panhandle)
Benefits: Directly addresses the need for more territory to produce cubes. Will give us an area that has low DS and so is safe to hunt in. Stays focused on Tokyo, but avoids the Eyeball.
Drawbacks: Can we do it? Can we force the Youma to withdraw their forces? Do we have enough cubes to allow the attempt? What if it fails?
Variants?
Other Options?
We should spend time discussing all these approaches and not get focused on just one of them. Even if we have a current preference.
We should also discuss overhunt options. Why not overhunt the Rural area as well? Should we use Advanced Rotating tactics? Should we hunt above 10+ DS?
Instead of a buffer against poaching, maybe it's better to hunt all the way up so that poaching in our territory is not attractive to refugees that don't want to cooperate?
We can bypass that by taking the fight to the Beholder, so that we can select what companion youma it has. There's always going to be a couple in the middle of Tokyo with it, due to the standard rotations, and those are probably the ones it brought along with it. In particular, make sure that that one youma with the barrier-breaking powers isn't nearby.
Uh... how do you know this? That's what I am asking.
Did I miss a revelation that the Eyeball always has companions?
My point is that we have not spent enough time studying the recent Eyeball behavior so we don't know if there are better time to attack or not. If we want to pick the time and circumstances then we need to spend at least a month studying it.
