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Why would that even happen in the situation Jaytar was describing in which we pursue legitimate access and control of the codes via the Cogitare Exploraratum and political influence?

Because there is no such thing as legitimate access to the codes, there is only who has power and who does not, who can enact purges and who gets purged. There is no mechanism for the peaceful transfer of power in institutions like the Imperium of Man and the Adeptus Machanicus. Thalya's successor can reasonably be counted on to make the same calculus that she did only with nukes since shooting Vita with Skitari did not work.
 
Because there is no such thing as legitimate access to the codes, there is only who has power and who does not, who can enact purges and who gets purged. There is no mechanism for the peaceful transfer of power in institutions like the Imperium of Man and the Adeptus Machanicus. Thalya's successor can reasonably be counted on to make the same calculus that she did only with nukes since shooting Vita with Skitari did not work.
What successor? There isn't anyone else poised to gain control of the Mechanicus the way she did. Different people will almost certainly be fighting over the scraps and different hats she leaves behind.

Whoever gets the codes isn't going to be in any position to use them to assume Thalya's position of power and influence, so the calculus you're proposing here doesn't make any sense.
 
What successor? There isn't anyone else poised to gain control of the Mechanicus the way she did. Different people will almost certainly be fighting over the scraps and different hats she leaves behind.

Whoever got the codes. Simply knowing those codes means they think they have an unassailable position, but only if they can prove they are willing to use them. Because all they have are the codes and not the power and influence they are all the more likely to use them.
 
Whoever got the codes. Simply knowing those codes means they think they have an unassailable position, but only if they can prove they are willing to use them. Because all they have are the codes and not the power and influence they are all the more likely to use them.
So they nuke another enclave...and then what? How do you see them gaining anything from this without getting killed?
 
A thought, instead of blowing up the killsats, could we recycle them?

Think about it, a single Basic Defense Satellite costs us 300 Void BP. Times 100 satellites = 30,000 Void BP. Even if we only get some fraction of it, that is still a considerable amount.
Or to calculate it another way, a single Nuclear warhead costs 25 BP. Each satellite has six warheads (Which are way more powerful, but I'm setting a lower bound here) 6*25=150. 15,000 Void BP.
Point is, there is thousands of Void BP of infrastructure up there that we are 85% of the way to owning. Even if we don't like it, it seems like a waste to blow it all up.

If we gain sufficient control over the killsats via leadership of the AdMech, why not put their parts to more productive use?
The mechanicus killsats are much more similar in design to the 25 RP - Spy satellite (10 void BP, 5 CP) that you have availably. Granted, probably double the cost plus payloads, but they're very little more than a sensor package and a set of ground-attack warheads. That's why a single missile hit will take them out.

The other kind of satellite you're talking about is basically a small defensive platform. It's a void platform without engines, built to fight in a battle. Twenty times larger than a killsat, with armor and shit. If there were a hundred of those over the planet you'd need several cruisers to clear them out, and you'd take damage doing it.

Maybe? Their behavior likely depends on who the successor(s) are, if they actually have a target (not yet), and which codes they actually inherit from her. And also how likely waving around the nuke/killsat codes is to get them stabbed by the other Magi, or nuked in retaliation.

Was Thalya really the sort of person to choose a single successor, who might be incentivized to off her and inherit her stuff?

@Neablis do we have any idea what the (prior and current) distribution of the top-level killsat and nuke codes is? Did Thalya have them all, or were they distributed between the enclaves?
You're not entirely sure what Thalya's succession plans were, and what happens to her codes now. Sometimes members of the Mechanicus never believe they'll die and don't take proper precautions. That's how codes & knowledge gets lost forever. Still, even if that happened it wouldn't brick the satellites, because other people (including you!) have access codes, they're just of different levels of authority.

Generally speaking all of the top-level Magi have some level of access to the killsats, and that's partially determined by and partially determines their status among the Mechanicus. You probably have low-level codes, most of the senior magi have mid-level codes and Thalya probably had high-level codes. You're not sure if anybody else has high-level codes. If nobody does that'll make hacking easier, since you won't have to override high-level codes, only medium-level codes.

The nuke codes are definitely distributed amongst the enclaves - no Magos would let anybody else control the nukes sitting in their own territory.

Thalya's death has had a few major impacts. First, it's confirmed you as big and scary. People were happy to listen to your lessons and take your gifts, but it's one thing to receive gifts from somebody and quite another to watch them masterfully destroy somebody powerful in an entirely justified way.

Second, it's thrown the leadership of the Mechanicus into question. Not that Thalya was the explicit leader (in the absence of one the top Magi form a sort of council to determine policies and stuff), but she was certainly a primary voice in determining mechanicus policy. Now that she's dead all of their policies are thrown into question. Even if she did set up a smooth transition policy for all of her codes, her successor won't speak with her authority. They'll be a new fish stepping into big shoes, and aren't going to have Thalya's political weight to throw around even if they're a carbon-copy of her.

Then there's the fact that as far as you're aware, the next-most influential tech-priest in the Denva Enclave is Orynn and - uh. He's respected as a mediocre teacher who teaches large amounts of mediocre enginseers and stuff. Important, but not exactly prestigious.

Before I go to bed let me give my interpretation of the different plans:
[] Plan: Hear, Children, the Wisdom of the Ancients
In this plan you're dealing with the mechanicus as a whole, working on getting the existing power structure on board with your "ancient explorer" story and starting the culture shift towards something more agreeable. This plan makes every attempt to extend the velvet glove, but the steel fist inside is very real and you're prepared to use it to get what you want. A good roll is likely to see you coming to some kind of agreement without any bloodshed, but a poor roll may result in everybody you don't already have your hooks in uniting against you.

[] Plan: Look at this shiny apple full of knowledge, want to take a bite?
This plan is similar to the one above, but more focused on subversion. You're not really trying to work with the existing Mechanicus structure so much as replace it piece by piece before revealing your "ancient explorer" story. The downside there is that anybody you don't subvert is more likely to fight back, having seen the rash of mysterious disappearances and such. This plan is more likely to end in conflict than the above plan, but also more likely for that conflict to be smaller, more localized and more quickly quashed.

So, to summarize: do you try to keep the power structure intact and treat with it as a whole, with the risk being you have to fight that power structure if things go badly? Or do you try to take over the power structure first before revealing yourself, at the cost of anybody you didn't get to being less likely to accept your offer? Where we land within those distributions is gonna depend on the rolls!
 
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So they nuke another enclave...and then what? How do you see them gaining anything from this without getting killed?

By the rest of the ad mech falling in line so they do not also get nuked. Ancient technology is all fine and good, not being dead is more important though, especially for people who were raised in a totalitarian environment. Not saying every last one of them would fall in like, but enough of them would that the person with the nukes might get a pledge from skitari officers he needs to mentain order. This isn't democratic politics, it's the politics of terror and repression. The most important question for leadership is 'do the people with guns think I'm hard enough' and when all one has to prove that is nukes nukes are probably going to fly.
 
I agree with the plan meianmaru came up with except for Anexa's action. I would rather we have her focused on leveling up until she hits level 10. I get the extra 25RP is nice but it's only 25. At level 10, she gets 50RP and a trait.
 
Second, it's thrown the leadership of the Mechanicus into question. Not that Thalya was the explicit leader (in the absence of one the top Magi form a sort of council to determine policies and stuff), but she was certainly a primary voice in determining mechanicus policy. Now that she's dead all of their policies are thrown into question. Even if she did set up a smooth transition policy for all of her codes, her successor won't speak with her authority. They'll be a new fish stepping into big shoes, and aren't going to have Thalya's political weight to throw around even if they're a carbon-copy of her.

@Neablis, do we currently have any idea so far from our intelligence work who, if anyone, might be either Thalya's chosen successor or the tech priest most likely to consolidate/lead the more reactionary forces of the enclaves or is the post-Thalya political landscape too (small "c") chaotic/murky/unclear to know right now (and thus up to the dice)?
 
I agree with the plan meianmaru came up with except for Anexa's action. I would rather we have her focused on leveling up until she hits level 10. I get the extra 25RP is nice but it's only 25. At level 10, she gets 50RP and a trait.
Like I've said before, this is not for the extra RP, but crit-fishing for a specialty (in this case, cybernetics). I'm planning to throw her always into research that I would want her to get a specialty in, if we have something that we would want on that turn. Because with crits, the only way to better the odds is to roll more.
 
The mechanicus killsats are much more similar in design to the 25 RP - Spy satellite (10 void BP, 5 CP) that you have availably. Granted, probably double the cost plus payloads, but they're very little more than a sensor package and a set of ground-attack warheads. That's why a single missile hit will take them out.

The other kind of satellite you're talking about is basically a small defensive platform. It's a void platform without engines, built to fight in a battle. Twenty times larger than a killsat, with armor and shit. If there were a hundred of those over the planet you'd need several cruisers to clear them out, and you'd take damage doing it.


You're not entirely sure what Thalya's succession plans were, and what happens to her codes now. Sometimes members of the Mechanicus never believe they'll die and don't take proper precautions. That's how codes & knowledge gets lost forever. Still, even if that happened it wouldn't brick the satellites, because other people (including you!) have access codes, they're just of different levels of authority.

Generally speaking all of the top-level Magi have some level of access to the killsats, and that's partially determined by and partially determines their status among the Mechanicus. You probably have low-level codes, most of the senior magi have mid-level codes and Thalya probably had high-level codes. You're not sure if anybody else has high-level codes. If nobody does that'll make hacking easier, since you won't have to override high-level codes, only medium-level codes.

The nuke codes are definitely distributed amongst the enclaves - no Magos would let anybody else control the nukes sitting in their own territory.

Thalya's death has had a few major impacts. First, it's confirmed you as big and scary. People were happy to listen to your lessons and take your gifts, but it's one thing to receive gifts from somebody and quite another to watch them masterfully destroy somebody powerful in an entirely justified way.

Second, it's thrown the leadership of the Mechanicus into question. Not that Thalya was the explicit leader (in the absence of one the top Magi form a sort of council to determine policies and stuff), but she was certainly a primary voice in determining mechanicus policy. Now that she's dead all of their policies are thrown into question. Even if she did set up a smooth transition policy for all of her codes, her successor won't speak with her authority. They'll be a new fish stepping into big shoes, and aren't going to have Thalya's political weight to throw around even if they're a carbon-copy of her.

Then there's the fact that as far as you're aware, the next-most influential tech-priest in the Denva Enclave is Orynn and - uh. He's respected as a mediocre teacher who teaches large amounts of mediocre enginseers and stuff. Important, but not exactly prestigious.

Before I go to bed let me give my interpretation of the different plans:
[] Plan: Hear, Children, the Wisdom of the Ancients
In this plan you're dealing with the mechanicus as a whole, working on getting the existing power structure on board with your "ancient explorer" story and starting the culture shift towards something more agreeable. This plan makes every attempt to extend the velvet glove, but the steel fist inside is very real and you're prepared to use it to get what you want. A good roll is likely to see you coming to some kind of agreement without any bloodshed, but a poor roll may result in everybody you don't already have your hooks in uniting against you.

[] Plan: Look at this shiny apple full of knowledge, want to take a bite?
This plan is similar to the one above, but more focused on subversion. You're not really trying to work with the existing Mechanicus structure so much as replace it piece by piece before revealing your "ancient explorer" story. The downside there is that anybody you don't subvert is more likely to fight back, having seen the rash of mysterious disappearances and such. This plan is more likely to end in conflict than the above plan, but also more likely for that conflict to be smaller, more localized and more quickly quashed.

So, to summarize: do you try to keep the power structure intact and treat with it as a whole, with the risk being you have to fight that power structure if things go badly? Or do you try to take over the power structure first before revealing yourself, at the cost of anybody you didn't get to being less likely to accept your offer? Where we land within those distributions is gonna depend on the rolls!

Given both options have a meaningful chance of the platforms firing and the person most likely to have the codes is Oryn who has personal beef with Magus I think is is safe to say it's not worth the risk of trying to recycle the platforms.
 
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What about the idea to give Vita a 'real' body that makes Cawl look normal? People will know she uses proxies, so they'll wonder what she really looks like.

It helps to improve our cover.
 
Responding to an earlier post:
Maybe try to recycle/repurpose first, then if that fails and/or any of them seem at risk of being imminently used we destroy them? It might be a path of persuasion actually, as Admech hardliners can reassure themselves that all those precious weapons and infrastructure aren't going to waste and can be put to more productive ends.

@meianmaru, do you think adding that carrot (we will try to reuse the killsats for more productive ends) combined with the stick (that we will destroy or disable any killsats we aren't given control over for disarmament), could be useful messaging?

Now I'm less sure about this next part, but I think other AdMech WMDs like ICBMs should probably be allowed to persist for now as long as we gain some degree of control over them, considering that in the short term, there will still be significant anxiety within the enclaves during in a time of upheaval and radical change of being overrun by increasingly sophisticated and assertive nations, which although couldn't deploy WMDs due to their reliance on tech-priests to maintain and operate them (although I'm sure they would fear we could take over that role if we wanted to), could and would beat them in a prolonged conventional struggle they couldn't reliably turn to WMDs for without our direct intervention (from their perspective, they can't be certain we would join the nations enclave invasions, but they would be much more confident we would stop a WMD exchange considering our other policies we are pursuing simultaneously this turn like killsat disarmament) - but in "softer" geo-political expression and relations than war having those WMDs still has some weight (although that weight may in truth be but a safety blanket hardliners for maintaining enclave independence use to reassure themselves, but that still seems preferable to them going into full doom mode where nothing holds them back from pushing the button out of vengeful, fearful spite).
If we are at the point where we are offering the knowledge of the Ancients, and they still want to preserve just some killsats? Negotiations are not going to go anywhere meaningful. Besides, the killsats are a continuous existential threat to the whole planet, so I want them removed ASAP. Compromising by letting them to continue to exist is just too much of a threat.

Also, behind the diplomatic wording and reaching out with the promise of Vita's knowledge and technology? I'm driving for a rather hard "take it or leave it" bargain here to get this finally done. I don't want for us to have to drag out our feet on this planet for decades to come to ensure the AdMech Enclaves are playing nicely. Get it done among the other things we want to do on this planet before leaving, so that we can finally reach for the stars afterwards.
 
If we are at the point where we are offering the knowledge of the Ancients, and they still want to preserve just some killsats? Negotiations are not going to go anywhere meaningful. Besides, the killsats are a continuous existential threat to the whole planet, so I want them removed ASAP. Compromising by letting them to continue to exist is just too much of a threat.

Fair enough, I was just thinking that it might be a tactically meaningless but theologically significant difference for some tech priests if we are deconstructing and recycling the killsats into new sacred constructs vs destroying them, but you are probably right that even in the best-case scenario where we gain complete control pretty much right away there would still be a brief but longer window where a strike could be conducted vs destroying them (even taking into account a delay for telegraphing intent), so there's definitely still a tradeoff.

Regardless, increased chance of conflict in turn for higher likelihood the conflict will be more localised seems like the more prudent route, particularly as the more hostile actors are in play the more WMDs we need to counteract (granted even a comparatively tiny number could still reap unparalleled devastation depending on the type, yield, efficiency, state of repair, etc., of the WMD(s) in question.

Apologies, I realise now I completely misunderstood the reasoning last night, I will address it in a later post.

[X] Plan: Hear, Children, the Wisdom of the Ancients
 
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