Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

And a message is left upon the table to read.

Reevals needed on Walker's flip
Everyone needs progressions now IMO
Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP

And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

End of Day is at
 
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Or, as Shal suggested yesterday, scum could have visited Shal for the sole purpose of making them today's target. Which is entirely viable regardless of if they are town or scum, so them being alive isn't really an indicator.

This is why I asked you the question of: can Maf do a surge ability and kill three people in a day with each of their remaining members? Because if yes, then yeah, that's probably what happened, but if no, then Ori seems the most likely culprit.
 
Also I just want to point out that if Ori did visit Shalmoa then there is no way that she could've also visited you.
This is true without the existence of a second JoAT. Thinking about the amount of KP we're seeing in this game between your claim, known Town KP outside of your claim, and an extra Scum kill, I'm honestly a lot cooler with the double Doctors idea, where Ori just fits neatly into the "saved Shalmoa" world.

I think from there, the possible worlds are as follows:

Town!Shalmoa healed Ori, and the kill was strongarmed through.
Scum!Shalmoa healed Ori, and the kill was strongarmed through to provide claim space. This did not account for a second Doctor on me.
Scum!Shalmoa lied and healed me instead. No strongarm occurred.

Occam's Razor says Shalmoa is just Town here IMO, given that's the simplest explanation as to why Ori is dead. I don't think Scum gets fancy with Scum!Doctor at this stage, knowing that Town KP exists just from Night flips alone. They'd be better off trying to mitigate said KP and protect themselves with it.
 
Yes, and they have 3 people. As I said earlier. That much is obvious.

Bwuh

My question was "Can mafia surge and get three actions a night" and your response was "No because they killed two people" and then my response after that was "They would need a third member to heal him"

What I'm asking you is if a three member action surge was possible in the first place
 
Wait, I'm crazy. They could just use their normal actions on Shalmoa. So nevermind I just forgot something obvious.


So either Ori visited Shalmoa or Mafia visited Shalmoa. Those are our two options.
 
[x] Vote A Wise Hermit

Leaving this here for now since my current evaluation is I don't like the taste of this progression of "Doctor was strongarmed through" from Shalmoa to "let's kill Shalmoa" from Hermit. It feels weirdly opportunistic for this stage of the game and while Hermit has the means to self-prove by simply shooting, I want this vote down more as a protest to the original idea of just killing Shalmoa than anything. I think that does a lot more harm than good for the current situation.
 
In the meantime, grabbing lunch and then continuing with Cyri. Still have a little over 2/3 to go.
 
@A Wise Hermit I think you've panicked and your trying to route out town choices here but it's not a route we should be taking. Especially with the possibility of scum doctor on the plate now what your doing can quickly backfire. Can I ask why you held shot N2?

I also believe no further claims should be conducted at this time. It's bad enough one vig has outted himself. The second should not claim...even though their first shot was terrible I can't disagree with the nopeguy assesment.
 
The progression comes from my belief that Shalmoa should've resolved yesterday, and somehow he didn't. Somehow, either through Ori or through Maf team, he survived a night in where his slot would've resolved, and my analysis of the situation was that Shal either had to be visited by Maf!Team to survive or had a townie visit him to dodge the bomb, and all that required was for him to convince one townie to visit him.

But now I've seen the truth. Because he doesn't even need to convince a townie to visit him, although that would've been really nice, I'm sure. Maf team could do it anyways, because they have three members and all three members probably have night actions.

There are only two options here. Ori visited him and he survived, fulfilling the town visit. Or Mafia visited him and saved him. I just don't like how convenient it is for Shal to say that he visited Ori, then claims re-director when pressed, and then actually there's a second doctor / JOAT in the game that explains it away. It doesn't help that his entire PoE list yesterday was just LHF.
 
Bwuh

My question was "Can mafia surge and get three actions a night" and your response was "No because they killed two people" and then my response after that was "They would need a third member to heal him"

What I'm asking you is if a three member action surge was possible in the first place
No, that was not what you said. You specifically said kill 3 people in a day and do an ability, which is... not what happened in any world.
 
@A Wise Hermit I think you've panicked and your trying to route out town choices here but it's not a route we should be taking. Especially with the possibility of scum doctor on the plate now what your doing can quickly backfire. Can I ask why you held shot N2?

I am panicked. Because honestly? I have no idea how to even articulate what I'm seeing right now. I also see that if my theory is correct then we have a pretty stacked scum team, and I don't know how to argue against one if true. It just makes sense to me after the Nani flip yesterday.

No, that was not what you said. You specifically said kill 3 people in a day and do an ability, which is... not what happened in any world.

What I was implying is that scum team would need three actions to kill two people and still heal Shalmoa. I forgot that they have a third action since this is power madness-ish game where their members probably have their own visits / abilities each.
 
I am panicked. Because honestly? I have no idea how to even articulate what I'm seeing right now. I also see that if my theory is correct then we have a pretty stacked scum team, and I don't know how to argue against one if true. It just makes sense to me after the Nani flip yesterday.
There are 12 people left and 3 scum. We are, bluntly, nowhere near a loss.
 
There are 12 people left and 3 scum. We are, bluntly, nowhere near a loss.

Three scum in a world where we could spend the next five turns (as per your list) voting out LHF and coincidental villains. It isn't just the current game-state that scares me, it's the game state that we seem to be leading to that scares me. I don't think my nerves could handle just two more days of being lead around on a leash while we vote out greens, and I'm throwing down this gambit now because I feel like depending on the answer we get it could lead to more information being revealed instead of this game of "Let's question the same four - five people until the end of time until something changes." It does not help at all that the players implicated have no intentions to defend themselves until the very end of EoD, giving us seconds to react before we vote them out

It could 100% be true that this information could've been revealed later and I jumped the gun early, but /shrug it's already too late for walking it back now
 
Three scum in a world where we could spend the next five turns (as per your list) voting out LHF and coincidental villains. It isn't just the current game-state that scares me, it's the game state that we seem to be leading to that scares me. I don't think my nerves could handle just two more days of being lead around on a leash while we vote out greens, and I'm throwing down this gambit now because I feel like depending on the answer we get it could lead to more information being revealed instead of this game of "Let's question the same four - five people until the end of time until something changes." It does not help at all that the players implicated have no intentions to defend themselves until the very end of EoD, giving us seconds to react before we vote them out
Those aren't LHF. They are the people that don't have significant reason to be skeptical of them being scum via the variable vote and what has happened since.
 
Those aren't LHF. They are the people that don't have significant reason to be skeptical of them being scum via the variable vote and what has happened since.

Dino isn't LHF? Walker isn't LHF? The only others I could see as non-LHF are Comi and Cyri, and the former has spent the last eternity making an ISO on me based on Nani's request (and IIRC he didn't even vote for Hugh, he voted for YP), and the latter, while being the second most suspicious person on that list, has been vouched for by whoever said that his emotional response yesterday was on point for his town!range. The reasons why I think Shal is Doctor but not town is because while he has made a big show of saying that he's solving for people, his top PoEs were essentially all LHF and everything else was a "Meh" on that list. I could make arguments against those people. Anyone could make arguments against those people. They are basic solves that prove nothing about your alignment.

Now, maybe I'm wrong. I said yesterday that Shal could help the town vote out someone red and that would clear him in my eyes, with me stating that if that was the case I wouldn't harry anyone for visiting him. But what irks me the most is both that he survived the night, and the fact that Nani, someone who he was arguing against quite heavily, turned out to be green. It does not help that on the next day he claims to have doctored Ori while YP states that somebody doctored -Rosen. It all just feels very, VERY convenient that he managed to escape his resolve and then suddenly, there are two doctors in the game, and actually, there's a redirector somewhere.
 
Dino kinda is, but I'm also not really considering him today right now anyway.

Walker is not, really. This is actually pretty standard for his Scum MO.

Dino claimed to be "Role-delayed" today anyways so I literally don't think he's red and I haven't seen any legitimate reasons other than "he hasn't talked a lot"

Walker? Maybe? We have like two days anyways, go and question him.

@Walker What do you think of my role claim, What do you think about Shalmoa, @Byzantine do you have any other questions?
 
I mean, I kinda want to because it probably helped scum solve the gamestate even a little bit but hopefully there is enough unknown claims that the waters are still muddied.

Dino isn't LHF? Walker isn't LHF? The only others I could see as non-LHF are Comi and Cyri, and the former has spent the last eternity making an ISO on me based on Nani's request (and IIRC he didn't even vote for Hugh, he voted for YP), and the latter, while being the second most suspicious person on that list, has been vouched for by whoever said that his emotional response yesterday was on point for his town!range. The reasons why I think Shal is Doctor but not town is because while he has made a big show of saying that he's solving for people, his top PoEs were essentially all LHF and everything else was a "Meh" on that list. I could make arguments against those people. Anyone could make arguments against those people. They are basic solves that prove nothing about your alignment.

Now, maybe I'm wrong. I said yesterday that Shal could help the town vote out someone red and that would clear him in my eyes, with me stating that if that was the case I wouldn't harry anyone for visiting him. But what irks me the most is both that he survived the night, and the fact that Nani, someone who he was arguing against quite heavily, turned out to be green. It does not help that on the next day he claims to have doctored Ori while YP states that somebody doctored -Rosen. It all just feels very, VERY convenient that he managed to escape his resolve and then suddenly, there are two doctors in the game, and actually, there's a redirector somewhere.

We're at the stage where there really isn't any LHF anymore. At this point you have to do those ISO's to get a decent read. If anyone is currently LHF it's IH for feeling incredibly disconnected and avoiding the active wagons the day before. Feels like distancing from a town flip more than anything. I was wrong on Nani and I'll accept that as being a bad light but I mean, I thought I had something and pushed towards it with what I had I went.

Right now I think we should decide if Shal actively skipped by as a scum or townie, and Dino's claim is rather odd in this space now.
 
Can I ask why you held shot N2?

The Variable flip broke my calculus and I needed more time to see if the people I suspected were actually guilty or not. The reason I want the Shal flip is because if I have that information, I can determine if my calculus is actually delusional or if I'm actually on to something when I see weird plays happen in real time


It's both a combination of me feeling that we're voting for LHF and the fact that they just seem so easy to choose. We voted out Nani yesterday for understandable reasons; the PoE was closing and he was one of the only people that didn't fit into a proper clear. He was focusing on Dino too much, he was absent for a long time, etc etc. So I get that. But when I saw him flip, I knew deep in my heart that this wasn't going to be an easy game and we 100% were being lead around by someone, because when he went down there wasn't a lot of other targets we could choose and we've been mostly stumped at getting proper scum reads since Day 2

I don't think there's much chance dino is scum tbh.

Thank you. This is what I was hinting at.
 
Alright, on to the meat of the reading.

Cyricubed ISO Part 2
Day 2 (Starts on #820, Ends on #1607)

From here I'm completely ignoring fluff or rule-related stuff from a reading perspective here, given the general timing of Day 2. For completion's sake, these posts include #1048, #1051, #1065, #1143, #1153, #1160, #1177, #1258, #1287, #1288, #1301, #1363, #1368,

#922 - Some miscellaneous comments, including surprise about Nictis being the N1 kill, double announcers being probably Town (though we now know only mine is persistent), and a very early vote on 99L on the basis of the "if you show me yours I'll show you mine" response to YP, which at the time was certainly warranted IMO.

#1062 - Really big post here, but will compact into the important parts. Reasoning for Zaealix vote is fine in a vacuum, I don't mind that. Comments on Hugh's activity are topical for this point and probably okay on a principle level. Agreement that claiming RB is not anything indicative when it comes to roles themselves, also fine on a principle level. General Town-reads include Ori, Wiadi, and Absum, with a lighter Town-read on Logos. Comments on YP's history of making weird comments -- weirder than the one Shal is calling out at least. Not sure if referring to this game or overall. Calls Nani out as a "Who?" slot, probably a fair evaluation at the time. Agrees with the 99L self-resolve stuff but also notes ignoring the slot feels bad at the same time. Moves to Hugh at the end of it all, pretty sure this comes after the parked votes I called out during this Day. Ends the post with some more lines of questions to various slots.

There's a lot to unpack here, with the underlined portion being what I'm most interested it, since it's a noticeable departure from how he was reading YP's posts on Day 1. This might spawn a full Day 1 reread for me to see what overall sentiments looked like since I'd like to compare it to the Variable sentiments from Day 2, which are still pretty vivid for me.

#1130 - Notes a distaste in Dino's response to his previous post's question to him, but calls NAI. Also gives Town points to Walker's concern over Clown Bean's initial DV reveal, and engages in some additional discussion regarding the value of DV. At this point, I start to question if DV even exists if Cyri flips Scum since a Walker team read could be in the cards based on this post.

#1137 - Some more DV discussion, and another round of questions. Not much to see here IMO.
#1141 - Calls out Walker's posts as part of Town meta in response to Wiadi's question about it.
#1155 - Distaste for YP's callouts relating to Ori. Fine on a principle level.
#1159 - Commenting on Exo-Colony's ending. Probably just irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
#1166 - Callout that current situation is pretty similar to just being a Day 1, probably fine on a principle level.

#1275 - Cyri's readlist. The Variable section is what had me initially not liking Cyri in the first place, though I think I made that clear in previous discussions. If not, then here's where I started not liking Cyri. Additional callout for giving Walker Townlean based purely on CB's play, despite giving Walker the Town meta nod in #1130 -- The remainder are generally okay I think, but these three stand out the most to me, on account of dismissing the Variable arguments entirely before the slot flips Scum, and seemingly direct contradictions to prior posts in 99L and Walker reads.

I don't like it, but would again appreciate a sanity check to make sure I'm not conf-biasing myself.

#1293 - Shifts Shalmoa to a light Scum-read on account of pushing away from 99L while favoring other LHF. I'm not sure I like this idea but we'll see more once the big Shalmoa interaction happens.
#1295 - Shifts vote over to Hugh again, and explains the wagons, explicitly calling the Variable wagon T/T again. Response to 99L has 99L himself being the most informative vote for Day 2, and extends the wagon explanations to what they would mean for the game state on flips.
#1312 - Brings up Nopeguy as seemingly new and overproportioning my viewpoint of the Hugh parking situation, while also bringing them up as a potential move to wagon on.
#1318 - Response to Nani claiming Variable votes are policy, retorting that they are not. Probably fine on a principle level.
#1320 - Calls the Logos block more likely to be Scum-sided than Town-sided. Can't be super sure either way with what we know right now IMO, so probably fine on a principle level, but could be informative on a Cyri flip.

#1336 - Kinda lands in the middle regarding the Hugh parking situation, where the parked votes are bad, but if it means flipping Hugh then it's ultimately fine. Given the circumstances around Hugh at the time and the proximity to EoD, this seems more advocating for a "let's just commit with not a lot of time left and work with what we have afterward," which I'd say is probably fine? I don't quite know how I feel about this but hindsight might be screwing with my perception here a bit.
#1356 - Looks to be in direct response to Nopeguy's reads in light of my question of "what if Variable flips Scum." Nothing to note here but fine on principle.

#1395 - So this is where the Shalmoa interaction starts. At this moment Cyri is kinda just correct that 99L self-resolving isn't guaranteed, and trying to work the slot out as definitely self-resolving probably isn't optimal. That being said, I feel like this makes the Shalmoa shift to LightScum in #1293 seem a little weird, given this argumentation is more in the light of "everyone is calling 99L self-resolving but I don't think we should." Which, while hindsight has me disagreeing right now, is an understandable viewpoint, but I don't really understand singling out Shalmoa as the one to shift to LightScum here. Was it because Shalmoa was trying to engage with the idea that 99L shouldn't be put off as self-resolving? I'm not quite sure and don't want to read that much when I'm already potentially staring down a full Day 1 reread, to be totally honest.

#1420 - As much as I think Cyri's frustration at Shalmoa's responses is warranted, I can't help but shake the feeling that there's a weird dichotomy in Cyri's explanation of things in this post. Since, Cyri did give 99L a hard Scum-Read in #1275, but even that and the current discussion skew more toward the "I don't like the self-resolving concept" part of things. I'm not really sure what to make of this, but something feels weird here to me, if only at a subconscious level.

Thus ends Day 2. Pending requested sanity checks, I think even with the Shalmoa stuff at the end, things look decidedly worse for Cyri here than they did for Day 1. I had musings of his Day 1 YP push feeling weird when relating it to the Variable dismissal when making the previous post, and I think I kind of affirmed my beliefs on that front more than anything (especially when the "YP is weird" post happened that countered the original YP push in the first place). Still open to interpretations here, but taking another break before I move to Day 3.
 
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