Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

And a message is left upon the table to read.

Reevals needed on Walker's flip
Everyone needs progressions now IMO
Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP

And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

End of Day is at
 
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Wait, technically, I should only know they were attacked, not that they were vigged. It looks like the GMs messed up my action result again.
 
Wait, technically, I should only know they were attacked, not that they were vigged. It looks like the GMs messed up my action result again.
Eh, not that it matters either way (understand where you're coming from though). With the info we have before your result, it's easy to surmise it was Vig!Atoms who performed the kill.
 
Eh, not that it matters either way (understand where you're coming from though). With the info we have before your result, it's easy to surmise it was Vig!Atoms who performed the kill.
I know, it's just annoying.

Actually, looking at the wording, it's possible they've gotten my action results wrong every single time, even after I've called them out on it, but it just hasn't been relevant most times.
 
Probably not relevant for the game as things stand right now at least, so probably best to leave it for discussion after the game ends.

That being said, now that everybody has claimed, I'm curious what you think of where everything stands, given we're looking at effectively four vanilla evaluations now.
 
(To be clear, I have a rough idea of how I value each claim but need some time to process how much I believe in my current reads)
 
...are you forgetting the part where we know I visited Ori and she didn't get RBed?

That's because you didn't roleblock Ori at all, Wiadi. I asked everyone earlier if it was possible for a ninja to exist in a game where there are potentially two strongmen, a tracker, a role-delayer, and a roleblocker confirmed or speculated to have been in the maf!team at game-start. I have yet to receive an answer. More than likely, a ninja never existed at all; indeed, it is awfully convenient that Dino has never had a second chance to perform his role after he first confirmed his visitation of you on Day 2. No, it's far more likely that you are the killer of 99Ls, and after you 'revealed' Variable (who would've most likely sacrificed himself quite happily for the cause, considering his inexperience) the town has had no reason to question you ever since.

Well. That would be the story if you flipped red, that is. The reason why I'm actually voting you out is actually quite ironic,

That's an awful lot of certainty from someone whose last read on me I could find any evidence of seemed to be pretty positive. Not that following your actual reads has been especially easy in general this game. Which I'm becoming increasingly convinced is because they're not real, just in service to the needs of the moment.

Considering that my current placement of you comes from what you very much suggested I do on Day 4 and 5. Which is to, of course, re-evaluate and follow the game-state. And we all know the game-state, don't we? We're looking for someone that Byzantine would've cheerled Night 2. And, as Comi suggested just now and in his Post #2920, who would be a better target than you? Let's look at the facts, something that I have to be quite grateful for @ComiTurtle for collecting:

In Night 2, there were five players to be the most liable for a Byzantine cheerlead.

Hugh / IH,
Atoms,
Dino,
YP,
And Wiadi.

It couldn't of been Atoms, since he's the Odd-Day Vig. Neither could've it have been Dino, as he is dead, and we know that he is both town and watcher. The only suspects left are:

Hugh / IH,

YP,

And Wiadi.

Assuming Town!YP after the Shalmoa clear, there are only two possible targets left. You, and Interstellar. Interstellar is a suspect all of in himself, but I do not believe that he is the roleblocker and therefore neither the Cheerlead target; more on him later. You are also suspicious already, considering the aforementioned Dino peek on you; and, as I have already mentioned, a ninja is unlikely considering all of the other scum powers currently thought to exist.

And before you ask, "Why trust the word of someone who you just admitted could be scum in a coinflip?" Why, it's because it makes sense, of course. We are looking for a cheerlead target. You are one of the most likely targets. And, honestly? If it wasn't Shalmoa / YP team, you are the only other possible choice for scum on the entire list of possible players, and after thinking about it for some more time, I'm having some doubts on the Comi scum flip myself.

See, I know that the scum!team left -Rosen alive to confuse the town. I also know that they've left me alive, both because they thought I could start confusion, and because they thought that they could hang me during the day. So far, there have only been two people that have tried to seriously start a wagon on me. Wiadi, and IH. And, coincidently enough, Hugh has also had a weird One-Shot claim that actually wasn't a One-Shot claim at all, considering that his sub walked it back a couple of days later. Now, I know that I said yesterday that I didn't want to vote out IH. But the Shalmoa flip changes everything, and I genuinely do not believe it can be -Rosen.

So, it's either you, or Comi, or IH. The rest is simple elimination.
 
Hm. I was strongly expecting Young Pyromancer to visit me.
I valued keeping Shal alive over you.
See, I know that the scum!team left -Rosen alive to confuse the town.
No, they left Rosen alive because there's a doctor, and they're playing a guessing game with Shalmoa and Dino. Well, both are dead now because Shalmoa guessed wrong and Atoms made a bad shot, so now there is no protection for Rosen. I expect them or me to die tonight. And if we are both still alive, I'm voting Rosen.
and because they thought that they could hang me during the day. So far, there have only been two people that have tried to seriously start a wagon on me. Wiadi, and IH.
This is bad logic. They could have been holding off on pushing you- just because they are planning to vote you doesn't mean they have already tried to.
 
please, stop doing this kind of argument

look at what people have posted, how they have voted, what arguments they have made
 
Actually
[X] Vote A Wise Hermit

Maybe Hermit is really unlucky with a series of bad takes. But at this point, evidence has been stacking up. Hermits continued insistence on scum!Shalmoa even in the face of multiple pieces of persuasive new evidence, to the point that it even made the suspicious of me, was what led to a vig shooting the outed doctor.

Their play has been misguided townie, but a broken clock is still right twice a day. Hermit has had anti-town takes this whole game. This is classic power wolf strats.
 
actually, I'm just gonna take a moment to analyze this post:
That's because you didn't roleblock Ori at all, Wiadi. I asked everyone earlier if it was possible for a ninja to exist in a game where there are potentially two strongmen, a tracker, a role-delayer, and a roleblocker confirmed or speculated to have been in the maf!team at game-start. I have yet to receive an answer. More than likely, a ninja never existed at all; indeed, it is awfully convenient that Dino has never had a second chance to perform his role after he first confirmed his visitation of you on Day 2. No, it's far more likely that you are the killer of 99Ls, and after you 'revealed' Variable (who would've most likely sacrificed himself quite happily for the cause, considering his inexperience) the town has had no reason to question you ever since.
This is kind of ok. I strongly suspect if we go back, many people will have told AWH 'yes, a ninja is possible, because we don't know what's on the scum team'.

Well. That would be the story if you flipped red, that is.

The reason why I'm actually voting you out is actually quite ironic,



Considering that my current placement of you comes from what you very much suggested I do on Day 4 and 5. Which is to, of course, re-evaluate and follow the game-state. And we all know the game-state, don't we? We're looking for someone that Byzantine would've cheerled Night 2.
We aren't trying to solve the game by 'who would byzantine cheerlead'. It is, at best, a theory that there was a cheerlead roleblocker. A plausible one! But it should not be treated as fact, and definitely should not be treated as the sum total of the game state.

And, as Comi suggested just now and in his Post #2920, who would be a better target than you? Let's look at the facts, something that I have to be quite grateful for @ComiTurtle for collecting:

In Night 2, there were five players to be the most liable for a Byzantine cheerlead.

Hugh / IH,
Atoms,
Dino,
YP,
And Wiadi.

It couldn't of been Atoms, since he's the Odd-Day Vig. Neither could've it have been Dino, as he is dead, and we know that he is both town and watcher. The only suspects left are:

Hugh / IH,

YP,

And Wiadi.
This list should not be treated as fact.


Assuming Town!YP after the Shalmoa clear, there are only two possible targets left. You, and Interstellar. Interstellar is a suspect all of in himself, but I do not believe that he is the roleblocker and therefore neither the Cheerlead target; more on him later. You are also suspicious already, considering the aforementioned Dino peek on you; and, as I have already mentioned, a ninja is unlikely considering all of the other scum powers currently thought to exist.
Don't think you can clear YP based on links to Shalmoa. Other reasons maybe, but you're really gonna have to explain why Shalmoa being town implies Young Pyromancer is.


And before you ask, "Why trust the word of someone who you just admitted could be scum in a coinflip?" Why, it's because it makes sense, of course. We are looking for a cheerlead target. You are one of the most likely targets. And, honestly? If it wasn't Shalmoa / YP team, you are the only other possible choice for scum on the entire list of possible players, and after thinking about it for some more time, I'm having some doubts on the Comi scum flip myself.
"The only other [vs Shal/YP] possible choice for scum" is an extremely dubious assertion. Particularly given that there's at least two scum.
If we're generous and asssume they mean "The only other [vs Shal/YP] possible choice for a cheerlead scum roleblocker", and we disregard all the prior problems with this argument... you have no solid reason to rule out ComiTurtle. Why Wiadi and not Comi?


See, I know that the scum!team left -Rosen alive to confuse the town.
That's very interesting! If you don't actually know this, don't claim you do. If you do actually know this, it's still probably not wise to claim you do.

I also know that they've left me alive, both because they thought I could start confusion, and because they thought that they could hang me during the day. So far, there have only been two people that have tried to seriously start a wagon on me. Wiadi, and IH. And, coincidently enough, Hugh has also had a weird One-Shot claim that actually wasn't a One-Shot claim at all, considering that his sub walked it back a couple of days later. Now, I know that I said yesterday that I didn't want to vote out IH. But the Shalmoa flip changes everything, and I genuinely do not believe it can be -Rosen.

So, it's either you, or Comi, or IH. The rest is simple elimination.
And this sort of 'shoot 'em all and we win' stinks, even from a perspective that assumes AWH is town
 
also, like, at a fundamental level this approach is based around
1: assuming without confirmation that a now dead player took a particular action
2: trying to read the mind of said player to guess who they would target
3: Also now relevant, assuming that said player was not redirected

this is at best going to be useful as supplementary data to falisfy particular theories
 
in fact
This list should not be treated as fact.
this is more than 'don't blindly trust people' problems
what this is actually doing is taking ComiTurtle's "5 Most Likely Touhous to Get Cheerlead!" list and twisting it to be the only 5 possible targets for a cheerlead.

but also looking back at Comi's list that post is equally scuzzy to AWH's
 
No, they left Rosen alive because there's a doctor, and they're playing a guessing game with Shalmoa and Dino. Well, both are dead now because Shalmoa guessed wrong and Atoms made a bad shot, so now there is no protection for Rosen. I expect them or me to die tonight. And if we are both still alive, I'm voting Rosen.
I'd prefer we don't give a free point of order to Scum but there's enough wine to be had here that I'll just ask we cross that bridge if we get there.
 
Its so joever. I got redirected
Gonna need to know your intended target then methinks.

I have no reason to disbelieve this coming from you, but this tells us that Shalmoa definitely wasn't redirected on account of not having such a result from Ori's death. One of Double Doctors or JoAT is confirmed, and I imagine both worlds probably shade the slot as Scum.
 
We aren't trying to solve the game by 'who would byzantine cheerlead'. It is, at best, a theory that there was a cheerlead roleblocker. A plausible one! But it should not be treated as fact, and definitely should not be treated as the sum total of the game state.
I have thoughts about this but want to wait for a response from Hermit. Remind me to come back to this.

Don't think you can clear YP based on links to Shalmoa. Other reasons maybe, but you're really gonna have to explain why Shalmoa being town implies Young Pyromancer is.
I need to figure out if Atoms' redirect claim changes the calculus for this at all, but YP partially links to Shalmoa by virtue of being verifiably Voyeur, and being able to confirm the RB claim from his slot. This brought along a discussion about Town!YP leading to definitely Town!Shalmoa, or Scum!Shalmoa leading to definitely Scum!YP. However, Town!Shalmoa or Scum!YP flipping first doesn't prove the other in either direction, so the conversation is effectively moot now IMO.
 
3: Also now relevant, assuming that said player was not redirected
I think if Atoms is getting direct feedback of a redirect then we would have heard about it significantly sooner though. Maybe there's some weird fuckery happening with delayer that makes it quiet but I'm not sure this is something to consider otherwise.
 
Laying some groundwork in these claims, looking at roughly these very early evaluations:

Wiadi (Neighborizer) -- On Ori Night 2, but with 99L also being there it's not clear whether Wiadi performed the kill or not. Ori's very positive note of Wiadi (and return to said positive note after my second ISO) could be seen as soft-claiming the relationship exists, but ultimately we have no way to prove this. Brief once-over of activity has her relatively consistent, so lowered activity concerns I had previously are less founded IMO.

ComiTurtle (Bulletproof) -- Delay claim made as Night 1 feedback. Technically verifiable in conjunction with Hermit's claim, but we shouldn't try to do so with Atoms' redirect feedback, so going with unverifiable in the current state. Seems to be fluctuating in activity overall, meaning helpfulness is also fluctuating.

A Wise Hermit (Even-Night Vigilante) -- RB claim made as Night 4 feedback. Unverifiable claim in the current game state, especially with Atoms' redirection feedback. Activity is high but can feel bloated at times. Generally proactive but more by way of tunneling, as already noted in previous discussions.

InterstellarHobo (Gunsmith) -- RB claims made as Night 1, 3, and 5 feedback. Additionally, restrictions were noted but not outright claimed (I'm assuming this is an Odd-Night restriction given the claim pattern, but would like confirmation from IH himself since I don't think he ever noted it). Certainly, the weirdest-looking claim mechanically due to the feedback claims, but the idea behind it is probably sensible as either alignment (Scum!IH setting up the feedback so as to not have to actually do anything with the claim, Town!IH having been figured out by Scum early and is silenced to prevent the slot from doing anything). General activity has improved over time, and looks to be at its best currently.

Let me know if any of these aren't agreeable and I can potentially adjust paradigms before I look further into anybody here.
 
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