Shards of a Broken Sun [Megaten/Shugo Chara/Exalted]

Sometimes, some of the time. Humans are goal-directed, so the actions of others can often be smoothed over; for instance, if she meets a woman she knows on the street then—if a potential precog predicted that Midori herself needed to be somewhere at a specific time—it might not need to take that woman's actions into account to guess that Midori will be at Place X at Time T, regardless of minor jostling in the crowd.
So, basically, it's down to dealer's choice.

If you don't know for sure there's even going to be any other people involved in the result, it would depend entirely on the results of the reading. Which out-of-universe, is controlled by QM fiat.

I would guess that, for the reading my vote proposes, there would be one potential case where Scavengers would be "pinged" - if they actually were there and would have a direct effect on harming Midori's safety (otherwise I assume their actions would all be "smoothed over"). In that event, I have no sympathy for them. Whether Saeki finds out anything about them or they detect it (which still requires a botch), they can bear the consequences.

That said- since there is so much resistance to the idea of using Precognition and/or bringing in another person at this point in time, I'll propose a version of the plan that does not involve Saeki, but instead relies on Amu attempting to convince Midori to come along to get her answers from the Scavengers unassisted. Without extra assistance, this will probably require a dice roll to get her to agree.

I strongly feel Amu should be given every chance to try and keep as much of her promise as she can, before having to resort to abandoning it. There's a fine line to walk between "decisive" and "ruthless".

[] Plan: The Price Of A Secret
-[] You suspect there's either one of two reasons why Kana is no longer returning your calls. Either something bad has happened to them, or else they saw you on the news with the government agents and got worried that you betrayed them. If it's the first case, you ought to tell your mother everything - they'll need all the help they can get; they surely won't hold it against you if you did it to help them. If it's the second, you need to prove you haven't betrayed them.
-[] The only way to let your mother know the truth without betraying your promise is if you take her to the Scavengers and let them tell her themselves, which will also prove to them you didn't even tell your parents anything. But if something bad happened to them, it might not be safe to take her to their house.
-[] Call in help:
--[] Midori Hinamori
---[] Once, when you had been desperately rushing around the city to try and find Ikuto with the rest of the Guardians, you had hidden the truth from your mother, deflecting under the excuse of being busy with extra-school activities supervised by Nikaidou. Your mother had known you were hiding something then, but had been willing to wait until you returned to hear the truth. But Nikaidou isn't here and, in light of recent events, you suspect your mother would not be quite as willing to wait to the end of the day for answers, even if he agreed to accompany you. But perhaps, if you took Midori herself along with you, she might be willing to wait for an hour or two.
---[] Torn between your duty to keep your promise to the Scavengers and your duty as her daughter to tell your mother the truth, you square your shoulders and beg her to recall how once she was willing to trust her daughter, despite her misgivings, enough to wait for a time. Your roiling emotions spilling out through your voice, you explain how you so fervently wish you could tell her everything, but made a promise to Kana and her friends in order to keep them safe. Yet, should your mother wait just a bit longer and come along with you to their house, she might have the chance to ask Kana's friends and hear the truth from them herself, without forcing you to break your promise.
---[] You promise that, should they not be there, you will tell her everything. As in that case, you suspect they will have ended up in trouble of the kind whereby secrets will no longer avail to keep them safe.
---[] You explain that you have a 'radar' ability to check inside without actually entering.
---[] Even with this, you can't guarantee going there will be safe, but you remember that not so long ago, Hikaru Ichinomiya had given you a gift he described as a ward against evil - a gemstone with an eye painted on it. You find this and give this to your mother, all the while praying it will never be needed.
--[] Miki
---[] Without any idea of what may be waiting when you arrive, you ask Miki to come with you and try to scout ahead as surreptitiously as possible.
---[] You request to jointly pool your radar ability with whatever extra assistance Miki can bring once near the property, to maximize your range and allow for as wide a scan from as far away as possible.
---[] You beg her not to use Big Miki as a bulletproof shield; there are better uses for her newfound trump card.
--[] Tsumugu and Ami
---[] You do not request that they come along - however, you do tell them you and your mother are heading out and if neither of them returns by the end of the day, to call Utau and tell her that they went to visit a friend Amu calls "Kana".


I expect this to require a contested roll just to agree to get Midori to restrain herself and walk out with Amu. With luck, this stunt would use Charisma + Presence for it instead of Manipulate + Socialize.

If there are at least 4 other people who end up voting for it, I'll switch my vote to this.
 
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[X] Plan: Full Disclosure
[X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
- [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
-- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
--- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
- [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
[X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
[X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
 
I'm guessing Amu isn't desperate enough at this point to have a valid case for insta-boosting precog and performing a safety forecast herself, but just in case: @Baughn?
 
I'm guessing Amu isn't desperate enough at this point to have a valid case for insta-boosting precog and performing a safety forecast herself,
Would be a waste, IMO.

I am fully expecting that house to be empty.

I don't actually believe there will be any risk whatsoever, no matter who goes. IMO, this vote primarily affects our relationship with Midori and potentially the Scavengers.

I expect that if we kept the promise and rushed out, we'd find an empty house and have to come back to an irate mother who wouldn't be as keen on lending her Investigation levels when trying to find them again. And then we'd probably break the promise somewhere else along the line during the search, bringing in help to look for them.

Meanwhile, the blowback from telling all to Midori would be delayed until we next see the Scavengers. The exact effect would be uncertain. Though I'd guess less than alienating Midori. If I had to pick just between the two options, I will fully admit that I'd prefer spilling over to zipping lips.

I mean, let's be honest - if Naomi actually thinks Amu has been compromised, she would think their house location has also been compromised. The first thing she'd do is get everyone to haul ass. Disposing of their phones would only come afterwards.
 
I strongly feel Amu should be given every chance to try and keep as much of her promise as she can, before having to resort to abandoning it. There's a fine line to walk between "decisive" and "ruthless".
I, at least, am not voting for disclosure as a ruthless move. This is a painful choice, balancing the safety and trust of multiple parties. I'm voting for disclosure as Amu deciding that if the Scavengers need aid, this is her best shot at aiding them.

Would be a waste, IMO.

I am fully expecting that house to be empty.
It gets that +1 to precog you wanted and skips a week of training time. Would you prefer not to have that extra dot of precog the next time a reason to use it comes around? I'm perfectly fine not pumping precog, but I figured you'd be more into it. You were the one pushing for precog back in the training vote.
 
It gets that +1 to precog you wanted and skips a week of training time. Would you prefer not to have that extra dot of precog the next time a reason to use it comes around? I'm perfectly fine not pumping precog, but I figured you'd be more into it. You were the one pushing for precog back in the training vote.
It does get the level, but then we don't get to use the instant boost later on, in a situation where it might be needed more. Yeah I like the stat, but the occasion seems too low risk, compared to potential use cases.

There's probably going to be some big fight later on (probably involving the Scavengers) where, like with Saaya, we might need to use it to save someone. That's what I'd save the boost for, I doubt that this is the most traumatized Amu is going to get this arc.
 
It does get the level, but then we don't get to use the instant boost later on, in a situation where it might be needed more. Yeah I like the stat, but the occasion seems too low risk, compared to potential use cases.

There's probably going to be some big fight later on (probably involving the Scavengers) where, like with Saaya, we might need to use it to save someone. That's what I'd save the boost for, I doubt that this is the most traumatized Amu is going to get this arc.
Are you hoping to boost Illusion? There's not a lot we can actually afford to boost with our 2 XP. The biggest valid "save people" options are Illusion and Precognition, and precog is best used before people need saving.
 
Are you hoping to boost Illusion? There's not a lot we can actually afford to boost with our 2 XP. The biggest valid "save people" options are Illusion and Precognition, and precog is best used before people need saving.
With 2XP, we should be able to buy anything Psionic we currently have points in, except for Telekinesis (which is already level 3).

Illusion is the most likely because of how much it can be used for, but it's also another level in Biokinesis (which we used to save Saaya last time) or Mental Range, if for some reason we needed to deploy something further away than 30 meters.

I got a bad feeling it might end up being Mind Control, though. Not necessarily to use on someone else, but to block or undo someone trying to use Mind Control on Amu or her friends. We know Ami has that.... friend. And while Kana is currently our friend. Well.

Let's just say, I do hope Kana keeps being our friend.
 
With 2XP, we should be able to buy anything Psionic we currently have points in, except for Telekinesis (which is already level 3).

Illusion is the most likely because of how much it can be used for, but it's also another level in Biokinesis (which we used to save Saaya last time) or Mental Range, if for some reason we needed to deploy something further away than 30 meters.

I got a bad feeling it might end up being Mind Control, though. Not necessarily to use on someone else, but to block or undo someone trying to use Mind Control on Amu or her friends. We know Ami has that.... friend. And while Kana is currently our friend. Well.

Let's just say, I do hope Kana keeps being our friend.
...right, forgot the "-1" in the psi skill cost formula. Never mind!
 
With 2XP, we should be able to buy anything Psionic we currently have points in, except for Telekinesis (which is already level 3).

Illusion is the most likely because of how much it can be used for, but it's also another level in Biokinesis (which we used to save Saaya last time) or Mental Range, if for some reason we needed to deploy something further away than 30 meters.

I got a bad feeling it might end up being Mind Control, though. Not necessarily to use on someone else, but to block or undo someone trying to use Mind Control on Amu or her friends. We know Ami has that.... friend. And while Kana is currently our friend. Well.

Let's just say, I do hope Kana keeps being our friend.
We also know Ami.
Little miss 'My entire class loves me'.
Levelling mind control to stop her throwing her aura around / teach her not to seems depressingly likely.
 
I'm guessing Amu isn't desperate enough at this point to have a valid case for insta-boosting precog and performing a safety forecast herself, but just in case: @Baughn?
She isn't desperate enough for that, and it isn't aimed in the correct direction. You'd have a better shot asking for e.g. Clairvoyance, except she can't boost it to the point where it'd function for a solution in one go. Which doesn't actually prevent the boost, it just means... well, whatever she was hoping to do with it, won't happen.

I should probably also point out, insta-boosts are stressful as hell. You've seen how they work. The mindstate she has going in is critically important for good results—you'd get the dot either way, yes, but...

With 2XP, we should be able to buy anything Psionic we currently have points in, except for Telekinesis (which is already level 3).
The first time you try to boost a skill above 3 dots, ... something will happen, and you'll learn a piece of the overall puzzle that is Amu. Also, [REDACTED].

We know Ami has that.... friend.
Hey now, Misaki's a perfectly nice girl.
 
Probably best to get that over with before too many other issues pile on. (Here's hoping it's something manageable. I'm imagining a Ray Sphere incident, and hoping it's not anything like that.)
 
:wtf:

.....I am going to hazard a guess that we might really want to be wearing the Humpty Lock when that happens.
Amu will be fine! Probably. I'm mentioning so you can take that into account for time estimates, not because- Grant us eyes, grant us eyes. Plant eyes on our brains, to cleanse our beastly idiocy.

Er. That's specifically the thing that doesn't happen in such a case.
Probably best to get that over with before too many other issues pile on. (Here's hoping it's something manageable. I'm imagining a Ray Sphere incident, and hoping it's not anything like that.)
A what incident?
 
My point is that if Amu is going to be "promising vastly more then she ever had to, because she sucks at social in the end" then her promises shouldn't have value, because the value to Amu is negative. Keeping your promises is for people who don't have that issue.
Considering I already said I don't think it's negative currently, I think we just disagree here on how exactly we see the situation.
Which is probably a large part of why precog is unreliable, it has to have a cut off before 'scan the entire world and everyone within it' for power consumption reasons, and it most likely uses the casters expectations to set those cut offs.
I think you could partially work around such an issue via using some ideas from QM (Assuming those work for this of course), like for instance trying to get a probability amplitude for an area. Something like that should be much lower energy and much less of a ping, how ever it would be pretty non-specific as well. For instance you could try to see what the chance of an interaction between the local area and the person in question would happen in an area, or perhaps as a follow up what the chance of a dangerous interaction is locally. So yeah rather non specific questions that are all about probabilities and dealing with reality in a wave function like way.

As such all that would really change is, is that it would increase the chance of finding dangerous spots, even if you didn't know about them. You'd still have to ping around afterwards to find details. I do think tricks like that would allow precog to operate more towards the kind of levels we expect from Shugo Chara though, even if still imperfect.
 
[X] Plan: Full Disclosure
[X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
- [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
-- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
--- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
- [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
[X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
[X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
 
[X] Plan: Full Disclosure
[X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
- [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
-- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
--- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
- [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
[X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
[X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
 
This sure has been one of the votes of all time, huh

[X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
- [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
-- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
--- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
- [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
[X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
[X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
 
In the event that the house is empty and it looks like the Scavengers voluntarily vacated the premises rather than got forced out, we will be facing a question on how or even whether Amu should try to approach them again.

I actually don't think trying to directly locate their new safehouse immediately would be the best option. Amu would have nothing new to offer them when she shows up and Naomi at least would be annoyed they got tracked down when the whole point of moving was to make sure they couldn't be found.

I propose that the best way to re-establish contact would actually be to intercept them during one of their illegal excursions. We know they have a drug problem that forces them to raid Manticore facilities. There probably aren't that many Manticore facilities around and fewer still that haven't already been raided by them.

Finding out where the facilities are is the first step, but fortunately, we already have one lead - we know there are two Easter scientists (or maybe ex-Easter by now) who used to work for them. Easter should have their personal details, we could probably ask Hikaru to put us in touch with them. Their knowledge might not be current, but they could still probably point in the direction of other people from Manticore who they used to work with. As long as those are still working there, those people would be able to provide up-to-date information and maybe some insight into the whole deal with the drugs.

The only issue with is in how to actually extract information from these Manticore/ex-Manticore employees once we find them. There are three ways I can think of:

1. Bribing with a large sum of money. More than whatever Manticore is paying them. Amu does not have this kind of cash, she would have to find a sponsor willing to invest. Would probably require bringing in Hotsuin or else asking more favors from Hikaru (who may or may not actually have the money to spare, depending on Easter's current fortunes).

2. Invasive mind reading/brainwashing. This requires a psychic to do. Potentially runs into issues if Manticore agents have the kind of mental shields that JPs agents seem to have. There's also the ethical dilemma of the fact that, except for Tsukasa and Saeki, all the psychics we know are minors (including Amu) and it is highly questionable whether we should be encouraging this kind of conduct from them.

3. Traditional enhanced interrogation. None of Amu's known acquaintances are trained in this kind of activity and would likely have even less stomach for it than mind invasion. The Scavengers might have had both the skills and inclination, but they're also the ones we're trying to find. Would probably need to borrow specialists from JPs or Easter to carry this out.

There's also the problem of what to do with the Manticore agents after the information extraction. If they got paid off they can just be set free, but the other two cases leave behind damaged goods. Best solution would be if Hotsuin could arrange an "extended stay" at JPs for them, otherwise you're almost certainly looking at less legal and savory options.

Once the facilities with the drugs have been identified, Amu would need to figure out which one the Scavengers are going to next target and when. Calling in a precog reading on the facilities is one way to make a guess, but depending on who got called in to help with the information extraction, it might be easier just to try and convince Hotsuin to raid (or have Easter use their media influence to expose) all but 1 facility and then just wait every night at the sole remaining one for the Scavengers to show up.

Of course even after re-establishing contact, we still need to convince the Scavengers that JPs can help with their problems. Not entirely sure whether Hotsuin getting told everything prior to this by Amu would be more or less helpful in this situation, as knowing she told the head of a government agency would severely sabotage our own trust among the Scavengers, more than telling Midori or even Easter which Naomi previously dismissed as a low-level threat. In the event that Amu did spill everything to him, it would probably help if he'd been seen raiding Manticore facilities beforehand.

......Now I think about it, the best way to convince the Scavengers that Amu's offer to put them in touch with Hotsuin could be fruitful might actually be to go all-in and get both Hotsuin to move against Manticore facilities and Easter to publicize the crackdowns at the same time, all before encountering the Scavengers again. Results from big, public moves against Manticore should speak for themselves, after all.
 
[X] Plan: Full Disclosure
[X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
- [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
-- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
--- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
- [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
[X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
[X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
 
Vote closed
Scheduled vote count started by Baughn on Jan 5, 2024 at 7:10 PM, finished with 241 posts and 19 votes.

  • [X] Full disclosure to mum about the Scavangers circumstances.
    - [X] Explain that they are a bit like Utau, though they suffered under a much worse group than Easter.
    -- [X] Mention that Manticore are part of the government, unlike Easter, but like JPs, and so they don't trust any officials.
    --- [X] And unlike JPs, they are evil. Like Easter.
    - [X] If possible, avoid telling her that Kana is a murderer. That doesn't seem like it would go down well.
    [X] Whatever wins, do it decisively. Firm your resolve. Burn a WP point if you have to. If Kana needs you, she's needed you for over a week.
    [X] Go with Midori and Miki to check the Scavengers house for them using mental scan from the longest range it is viable.
    [X] Plan: Full Disclosure
    [X] The most important part of the truth: they don't trust anyone but you and each other. And they're not that sure about you.
    -[X] The danger is that they especially don't trust people like JPs, and the entire country knows you've been talking to JPs. They don't know for sure that you didn't tell JPs anything about them.
    [X] Plan Keep the Secret
    -[X] Tell your mother that it's a secret you promised to keep and so you shouldn't just give it away just because you haven't heard from your friend for a rather long time. How ever you are worried for your friend and so you are going to check up on her even if she won't agree or won't give permission, Friends are more important then that after all.
    --[X] Calm yourself a bit, and bring up that there doesn't have to be that much risk. That they had some bad experience with strangers and are now very wary about them, but they are fine with people they know well enough.
    ---[X] Suggest that you can use your psychic power to get a good look from outside though, so it's not like you even there is any real risk. And if mom wanted to help you with a light disguise so journalists there isn't really much to worry about at all. You could also keep her on the phone if that would make things easier for her.
    ----[X] If any further good ideas come up that don't break the promise, you can consider those as well of course. But you can't possibly not check on your friend if she might be in trouble.
    [X] Truth Will Out
    -[X] You suspect there's either one of two reasons why Kana is no longer returning your calls. Either something bad has happened to them, or else they saw you on the news with the government agents and got worried that you betrayed them. If it's the first case, you ought to tell your mother everything - they'll need all the help they can get; they surely won't hold it against you if you did it to help them. If it's the second, you need to prove you haven't betrayed them.
    -[X] The only way to let your mother know the truth without betraying your promise is if you take her to the Scavengers and let them tell her themselves, which will also prove to them you didn't even tell your parents anything. But if something bad happened to them, it might not be safe to take her to their house.
    -[X] You don't know which one is the case, but you DO know 2 people who might potentially be able to foresee whether it would be safe to bring your mother along. One is your school principal, Tsukasa Amakawa. The other is the fortune-teller, Saeki Nobuko. You don't know whether you whether you'll be able to reach Tsukasa, but your mother is professionally acquainted with Saeki and probably has her phone number. If not, you know exactly which TV station she works at and can call there.
    -[X] You know your mother has a certain regard for Saeki, perhaps not enough that Saeki could convince her to leave everything to you, but enough that if she predicted it would be safe, Midori could be convinced come with you and hold onto her questions until she can speak to the Scavengers for answers.
    -[X] Call in help:
    --[X] Saeki Nobuko. Without telling her anything about the Scavengers, request a reading on whether Midori would be safe if she were to come along with Amu to the house they plan on visiting shortly.
    ---[X] If the answer is positive:
    ----[X] Bring Midori Hinamori along with you on your trip, explaining that she should hear the answer from the horse's mouth instead of Amu.
    ----[X] Bring Miki to scout ahead, just in case her prediction was wrong - even Tsukasa wasn't able to see the demons coming, after all.
    ---[X] If the answer is negative, or if Saeki is unable to give you a clear answer:
    ----[X] The Scavengers are likely in trouble. Tell your mother everything.
    [X] Truth Will Out
    -[X] You suspect there's either one of two reasons why Kana is no longer returning your calls. Either something bad has happened to them, or else they saw you on the news with the government agents and got worried that you betrayed them. If it's the first case, you ought to tell your mother everything - they'll need all the help they can get; they surely won't hold it against you if you did it to help them. If it's the second, you need to prove you haven't betrayed them.
    -[X] The only way to let your mother know the truth without betraying your promise is if you take her to the Scavengers and let them tell her themselves, which will also prove to them you didn't even tell your parents anything. But if something bad happened to them, it might not be safe to take her to their house.
    -[X] You don't know which one is the case, but you DO know 2 people who might potentially be able to foresee whether it would be safe to bring your mother along. One is your school principal, Tsukasa Amakawa. The other is the fortune-teller, Saeki Nobuko. You don't know whether you'll be able to reach Tsukasa, but your mother is professionally acquainted with Saeki and probably has her phone number. If not, you know exactly which TV station she works at and can call there.
    -[X] You know your mother has a certain regard for Saeki, perhaps not enough that Saeki could convince her to leave everything to you, but enough that if she predicted it would be safe, Midori could be convinced come with you and hold onto her questions until she can speak to the Scavengers for answers.
    -[X] Call in help:
    --[X] Saeki Nobuko. Without telling her anything about the Scavengers, request a reading on whether Midori would be safe if she were to come along with Amu to the house they plan on visiting shortly.
    ---[X] If the answer is positive:
    ----[X] Bring Midori Hinamori along with you on your trip, explaining that she should hear the answer from the horse's mouth instead of Amu.
    ----[X] Bring Miki to scout ahead, just in case her prediction was wrong - even Tsukasa wasn't able to see the demons coming, after all.
    ---[X] If the answer is negative, or if Saeki is unable to give you a clear answer:
    ----[X] The Scavengers are likely in trouble. Tell your mother everything.
 
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