Shards of a Broken Sun [Megaten/Shugo Chara/Exalted]

[PistachioCookies]

Again, I see the promise as essentially pointless, made under duress, and not something that should be in the priority queue for Amu's decisions. Especially not higher than having Midori fully on side, rather than worrying that Amu is making bad judgement calls.

Click to shrink...

We have no reason to believe that walking within mental range of the house and checking is going to trigger anything, and can be done with no more exposure than is already going to happen anyway.

Click to shrink...

Firstly, as I pointed out the last time you made this argument - Midori is simply not going to let us walk within mental range of their house without some assurances of her getting answers.

We need to either spill before she'll let us out. Or somehow convince her she will get answers later and probably the only way to do that is to actually bringing her along and say she can get them directly from the Scavengers.

Secondly....

All this accomplishes is exposing them to Saeki, and putting Midori at higher risk.

Again, I see the promise as essentially pointless, made under duress, and not something that should be in the priority queue for Amu's decisions. Especially not higher than having Midori fully on side, rather than worrying that Amu is making bad judgement calls.

Click to shrink...

If you're so fully onboard with breaking our promise and betraying the Scavenger's trust, I frankly question why you seem to care so much about Saeki finding out anything anyway - which I remind you, is not a guarantee she even would, the vote was just to ask her to check for Midori's safety if she accompanied us.

It's not like Midori herself has any mental defenses whatsoever either.

I fail to see where this incredible amount of extra risk you're talking about taking on comes from, when you're pushing wholeheartedly to pour out everything to Amu's magazine-editor media professional mother.

 

[PistachioCookies]

EDIT: And if Naomi threatens Midori to keep quiet, then it is rapidly going to turn into a fight to keep Midori from being mind wiped of the location, or a fight where she calls JPs because her daughter is being threatened into silence by a group of kids running around attacking people with mind control / illusions / whatever.

Click to shrink...

That's the whole point of using precog to check whether it's safe for her to go.

Yes, the threat could come from the Scavengers themselves too. No, I couldn't say this directly in the vote, because then Amu would think that and she shouldn't be thinking that.

But as the stunt-writer, my rationale is that if the Scavengers are the sort of people who would attack the mother of one of their friends out of pure paranoia, they are not worthy of Amu's trust anyway and Amu should spill to her mother.

Also, yes- believe it or not, but I did think about the potential follow-up in the event the Scavengers were there and Naomi was unhappy, I did consider it leading to a fight, if she and Midori couldn't work things out (which I considered there to be good odds at with Midori having Socialize 2 at the minimum).

And I concluded that actually might not be a bad thing, since in that event the Scavengers would be split on how to proceed with Amu there and Naomi insisting on mindwiping the mother. It would be contested by at least Kana and likely Aoi, if her specialization was Empathy.

Given the main obstacle in the Scavengers ability to trust Amu is Naomi, an internal coup to dethrone her as the driver of the outfit is one way to resolve the problem.

And while I'm at it, I will say I also that I thought about the follow-up for the event where the house was completely empty. In that event, Amu has exactly 0 levels in Investigation and probably wouldn't be able to determine what happened there. Midori on the other hand, working in media, might have a level in Investigation and could help to perhaps determine how long ago the house was vacated.

Moreover, having already phoned Saeki, we would have her skills on hand if we needed to track down the Scavengers ourselves.

 

[Nero200]

Firstly, as I pointed out the last time you made this argument - Midori is simply not going to let us walk within mental range of their house without some assurances of her getting answers.

We need to either spill before she'll let us out. Or somehow convince her she will get answers later and probably the only way to do that is to actually bringing her along and say she can get them directly from the Scavengers.

Click to shrink...

I'm aware of that.
That's why I'm saying give her the answers first, with the assurance that we will be going within mental range to check mostly risk free.
Answer everything she wants to know, explain that Manticore is bad news, worse than Easter, prime her to consider JPs the best emergency number in the government.

Then go check with Mental Range to see if there's any point in actually doing anything with the house.
If it turns out she can sense multiple military mindsets inside, then we can talk about involving precog.

Secondly....

If you're so fully onboard with breaking our promise and betraying the Scavenger's trust, I frankly question why you seem to care so much about Saeki finding out anything anyway - which I remind you, is not a guarantee she even would, the vote was just to ask her to check for Midori's safety if she accompanied us.

It's not like Midori herself has any mental defenses whatsoever either.

I fail to see where this incredible amount of extra risk you're talking about taking on comes from, when you're pushing wholeheartedly to pour out everything to Amu's magazine-editor media professional mother.

Click to shrink...

Because Saeki isn't needed. We can check with mental range if it's safe, there's no need to involve yet another person, especially one with the potential to high range track them.

I'm not saying breaking the promise is a positive, I'm just not giving the promise any weight.
I'm allowing weight for 'My friends don't want people to know about them', which puts it above Saeki, but below Midori.

This is also why I'm allowing for Midori even though she lacks mental defences.

Ie:
Priority Order: Midori needing to know > Scavengers wanting no one to know > Saeki knowing.

Amu's mothers job is irrelevant, because she's a good person, and not about to expose a bunch of terrified and abused kids to the public eye.

 

[Baughn]

Are these still a thing? Can we roll for some insight here?

Click to shrink...

You can vote for it. You'll be rolling Perception + Investigation + Clairvoyance, against a difficulty depending on what you're looking for (but probably 1). The dice pool for this is 1; if you'd picked it as a boon it'd be 2, but also I'd have it happen 'for free' once per arc.

(A strict reading of the mechanics might suggest the dice pool should be 0. I'm hereby declaring that you don't get a 2-die penalty, even if using untrained skill with untrained ability.)

Yes, the threat could come from the Scavengers themselves too. No, I couldn't say this directly in the vote, because then Amu would think that and she shouldn't be thinking that.

Click to shrink...

Ah, actually you can totally say that in the vote. You just need to make it clear that Amu isn't meant to be thinking it.

 

[PistachioCookies]

Because Saeki isn't needed. We can check with mental range if it's safe, there's no need to involve yet another person, especially one with the potential to high range track them.

Click to shrink...

....I think I see where we're talking past each other.

When you say "safe" you're thinking about "Amu's safety". To me, Amu's safety is not really in question. She'll survive her trip one way or another, whoever comes along with her.

When I'm talking about "safety", I mean "Midori's safety". And then it's Catch-22. Can't tell if it's safe for her without going near the house, but the only way to go near the house without caving to her questions is to take her with us.*

Precog was the answer on how to determine Midori's safety before making a decision on whether to even try bringing her to the Scavengers, with Miki as insurance just in case the precognition was bad.

Not Amu's safety, I'm pretty sure Amu will be fine regardless.

*And yes, I understand your argument that it's a moot point if we just cave, full-stop. But that then gives up the chance of trying to patch things up with the Scavengers. In the event where it turns out they voluntarily excommunicated us - what's YOUR follow-up plan to deal with them?

Amu's mothers job is irrelevant, because she's a good person, and not about to expose a bunch of terrified and abused kids to the public eye.

Click to shrink...

To us and to Amu? Of course it's irrelevant.

To the Scavengers - or to be precise, the super-paranoid Naomi? Yeesh. Oof.

 

[Quine]

You can vote for it. You'll be rolling Perception + Investigation + Clairvoyance, against a difficulty depending on what you're looking for (but probably 1). The dice pool for this is 1; if you'd picked it as a boon it'd be 2, but also I'd have it happen 'for free' once per arc.

(A strict reading of the mechanics might suggest the dice pool should be 0. I'm hereby declaring that you don't get a 2-die penalty, even if using untrained skill with untrained ability.)


Ah, actually you can totally say that in the vote. You just need to make it clear that Amu isn't meant to be thinking it.

Click to shrink...

Well, any trust risks for trying this are far lower than anything else that's been proposed. I'm not optimistic about getting anything actionable even if the roll succeeds, but it seems like it's worth a shot. If it fails, we just go back to what we were doing anyway.

 

[Baughn]

Well, any trust risks for trying this are far lower than anything else that's been proposed. I'm not optimistic about getting anything actionable even if the roll succeeds, but it seems like it's worth a shot. If it fails, we just go back to what we were doing anyway.

Click to shrink...

Make it a voting option, and I'll tell you what the difficulty rating is. ...there's strong limits on what post-cog can read, but you're unlikely to run into them in this case. Although, I will note, it is at least hypothetically noticeable to the people being spied upon... if it's targeted to people.

That would require a botch. Which is a 10% chance in this case.

 

[Quine]

Make it a voting option, and I'll tell you what the difficulty rating is. ...there's strong limits on what post-cog can read, but you're unlikely to run into them in this case. Although, I will note, it is at least hypothetically noticeable to the people being spied upon... if it's targeted to people.

That would require a botch. Which is a 10% chance in this case.

Click to shrink...

...man, if it turns out Aoi's precog picked up on Amu postcog'ing them, and that got the Scavengers to go to ground...

Obvious cheese question: can people detect it if we try to postcog their shoes? Or their house?

 

[Skelm]

In the event where it turns out they voluntarily excommunicated us - what's YOUR follow-up plan to deal with them?

Click to shrink...

...what's yours? You've already been told this and dismissed it, but your plan is still intentionally breaking the promise Naomi extracted from Amu, and nothing in it actually helps bridge the gap if they've already decided Amu has betrayed them.

 

[Nero200]

....I think I see where we're talking past each other.

When you say "safe" you're thinking about "Amu's safety". To me, Amu's safety is not really in question. She'll survive her trip one way or another, whoever comes along with her.

When I'm talking about "safety", I mean "Midori's safety". And then it's Catch-22. Can't tell if it's safe for her without going near the house, but the only way to go near the house without caving to her questions is to take her with us.*

Precog was the answer on how to determine Midori's safety before making a decision on whether to even try bringing her to the Scavengers, with Miki as insurance just in case the precognition was bad.

Not Amu's safety, I'm pretty sure Amu will be fine regardless.

*And yes, I understand your argument that it's a moot point if we just cave, full-stop. But that then gives up the chance of trying to patch things up with the Scavengers. In the event where it turns out they voluntarily excommunicated us - what's YOUR follow-up plan to deal with them?

To us and to Amu? Of course it's irrelevant.

To the Scavengers - or to be precise, the super-paranoid Naomi? Yeesh. Oof.

Click to shrink...

I'm also considering Midori's safety. I'm not really planning on her going near enough the house to be targetted.
And yes, full disclosure gets us close enough, while she stays in the car two blocks away or such.
Amu can tell what if someone can see her, because she would be able to see them.
So stop before she 'sees' anyone psychically, leave Midori there but in line of sight, and walk closer until the house is in range, check, then return to Midori.

Midori is going to get the full information.
Kana will know, next time she talks to Amu, that Midori knows.
And Kana knows where we live.
Midori is not really more or less safe in either of our planned scenarios, when we are dealing with people who have no-save death curses and know where we live.

Ideally, Amu would be able to full disclose to Midori, then solo check and explain things to Kana first later, and approach it from that angle.
That's not likely to happen though, so I'm doing the best with what we have.

If we've been voluntarily excommunicated then... oh well?
I'm a firm believer in that if people tell you you aren't wanted, then leave.
That's the Scavengers choice.
(And they will continue down that path until they become too big an issue to ignore.
At which point they will;
1: Flee the country.
2: Get smeared across the nearest surface by Manticore or JPs, since they are effectively a terrorist cell acting against the Gov, no matter their very good reasons for such.
Amu doesn't seem to have understood the likely outcome though.)

We have demon incursions happening, precog failing, multiple good friends dropped out of contact, and a possibly still on fire school.
Oh, and the end of the world.
If people want to willingly remove themselves from the to-do list, then I'm voting we let them.

EDIT: If you want an actual good solution? As in, one that is likely to lead to the Scavengers surviving the next five years?
Tell JPs about them, everything about them and Manticore. JPs are the good guys who are aware of psionics.
Naomi will hate it, they will likely all consider it a betrayal, but it's probably the only way out of the death spiral they've locked themselves into.

At current trajectory, in the unlikely event they start 'winning' against Manticore, then Manticore will call on JPs to help them deal with the 'terrorist cell attacking the government with psionic powers'.

The best way to stop that is for JPs to get to them before they are declared such, and get the full story.

 

[PistachioCookies]

...what's yours? You've already been told this and dismissed it, but your plan is still intentionally breaking the promise Naomi extracted from Amu, and nothing in it actually helps bridge the gap if they've already decided Amu has betrayed them.

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I realize the double-post was a bit lengthy, but this part:

Also, yes- believe it or not, but I did think about the potential follow-up in the event the Scavengers were there and Naomi was unhappy, I did consider it leading to a fight, if she and Midori couldn't work things out (which I considered there to be good odds at with Midori having Socialize 2 at the minimum).

And I concluded that actually might not be a bad thing, since in that event the Scavengers would be split on how to proceed with Amu there and Naomi insisting on mindwiping the mother. It would be contested by at least Kana and likely Aoi, if her specialization was Empathy.

Given the main obstacle in the Scavengers ability to trust Amu is Naomi, an internal coup to dethrone her as the driver of the outfit is one way to resolve the problem.

And while I'm at it, I will say I also that I thought about the follow-up for the event where the house was completely empty. In that event, Amu has exactly 0 levels in Investigation and probably wouldn't be able to determine what happened there. Midori on the other hand, working in media, might have a level in Investigation and could help to perhaps determine how long ago the house was vacated.

Click to shrink...

There's 3 scenarios I see being possible when we show up at the house:

1. Scavengers are there; they voluntarily ghosted us on the phone.
2. Nobody is there.
3. Hostile presences are there, either armed men, demons, booby-traps, etc. Scavengers likely in trouble.

In Scenario 1, taking Midori along, I give good odds to her being able to social-fu the Scavengers. She has at least 2 in Socialize and the whole bunch of them are anti-social delinquents. Will Naomi be angry at bringing Midori there? Probably. What's the answer to calming her down? Midori herself.

If it comes to an actual fight or Naomi insisting on "dealing" with Amu's mother regardless, I'm expect to see a division amongst the members - Kana will side with Amu and if Aoi has Empathy, will realize Amu's mother is just concerned and not an actual threat. Yui probably won't do anything. Mimi is a wildcard. This would be the best opportunity to de-legitimize Naomi's authority over the group and get them to trust Amu.

In Scenario 2, taking Midori along, we get the benefit of any Investigative levels she may have in tracking them down. We'd probably spill everything to her at this point, under pretext of Scavengers likely being in trouble.

In Scenario 3, we have to fight our way out. Hopefully Saeki's precog can prevent this and if not, that's what we brought Miki along to help with. This is the only scenario where Midori should come under substantial risk of harm and the whole point of calling Saeki is to try and prevent us walking into it.

 

[DarkN0va]

[X] Truth Will Out
-[X] You suspect there's either one of two reasons why Kana is no longer returning your calls. Either something bad has happened to them, or else they saw you on the news with the government agents and got worried that you betrayed them. If it's the first case, you ought to tell your mother everything - they'll need all the help they can get; they surely won't hold it against you if you did it to help them. If it's the second, you need to prove you haven't betrayed them.
-[X] The only way to let your mother know the truth without betraying your promise is if you take her to the Scavengers and let them tell her themselves, which will also prove to them you didn't even tell your parents anything. But if something bad happened to them, it might not be safe to take her to their house.
-[X] You don't know which one is the case, but you DO know 2 people who might potentially be able to foresee whether it would be safe to bring your mother along. One is your school principal, Tsukasa Amakawa. The other is the fortune-teller, Saeki Nobuko. You don't know whether you whether you'll be able to reach Tsukasa, but your mother is professionally acquainted with Saeki and probably has her phone number. If not, you know exactly which TV station she works at and can call there.
-[X] You know your mother has a certain regard for Saeki, perhaps not enough that Saeki could convince her to leave everything to you, but enough that if she predicted it would be safe, Midori could be convinced come with you and hold onto her questions until she can speak to the Scavengers for answers.
-[X] Call in help:
--[X] Saeki Nobuko. Without telling her anything about the Scavengers, request a reading on whether Midori would be safe if she were to come along with Amu to the house they plan on visiting shortly.
---[X] If the answer is positive:
----[X] Bring Midori Hinamori along with you on your trip, explaining that she should hear the answer from the horse's mouth instead of Amu.
----[X] Bring Miki to scout ahead, just in case her prediction was wrong - even Tsukasa wasn't able to see the demons coming, after all.
---[X] If the answer is negative, or if Saeki is unable to give you a clear answer:
----[X] The Scavengers are likely in trouble. Tell your mother everything.

 

[Baughn]

Obvious cheese question: can people detect it if we try to postcog their shoes? Or their house?

Click to shrink...

Well, you know. Maybe. Seems possible.

Amu is not very confident in this.

if Aoi has Empathy

Click to shrink...

She does, to about the same degree as Amu's classmates; i.e, one dot. If you asked Amu, she could tell you that... it just isn't something worth noting, because to her it's the people missing it who feel odd.

we get the benefit of any Investigative levels she may have in tracking them down

Click to shrink...

Amu does have some idea about this!

Midori has one dot's worth of Investigate. Tsumugu has two.

 

[PistachioCookies]

If we've been voluntarily excommunicated then... oh well?
I'm a firm believer in that if people tell you you aren't wanted, then leave.
That's the Scavengers choice.
(And they will continue down that path until they become too big an issue to ignore.
At which point they will;
1: Flee the country.
2: Get smeared across the nearest surface by Manticore or JPs, since they are effectively a terrorist cell acting against the Gov, no matter their very good reasons for such.
Amu doesn't seem to have understood the likely outcome though.)

Click to shrink...

So your follow-up vote would be... to give up on the Scavengers.

.....Something tells me that's going to be difficult to actually do in practice. I'll get to that in a bit.

Before that - I'll bet the Scavengers would really like to flee the country. But my impression was that they can't, because of the drug problem. Those robberies probably aren't being done for fun. Assuming they're not just on a revenge-mission to take down Manticore, they probably need to stick around to pillage drugs.

That means outcome 2 is the more likely one.

I don't think I have to say much about how likely it is that Amu in-character would just sit by and watch them get turned into red paste, if one of them came screaming for help. Or how easy it would be to get other people on board to vote to ignore it.

 

[Nero200]

In Scenario 3, we have to fight our way out. Hopefully Saeki's precog can prevent this and if not, that's what we brought Miki along to help with. This is the only scenario where Midori should come under substantial risk of harm and the whole point of calling Saeki is to try and prevent us walking into it.

Click to shrink...

I think this is where my confusion is coming from.
Unless they are literally in the process of being attacked (unlikely considering its been a week of no contact), we will be able to detect it before 'walking into it'.
And then we don't.
Because Amu is a decent range psionic, and so we just... don't walk into the military encampment, we go get allies and precogs and JP agents.
Or whatever else seems good.

Saeki is not needed to do this.

So your follow-up vote would be... to give up on the Scavengers.

.....Something tells me that's going to be difficult to actually do in practice. I'll get to that in a bit.

Before that - I'll bet the Scavengers would really like to flee the country. But my impression was that they can't, because of the drug problem. Those robberies probably aren't being done for fun. Assuming they're not just on a revenge-mission to take down Manticore, they probably need to stick around to pillage drugs.

That means outcome 2 is the more likely one.

I don't think I have to say much about how likely it is that Amu in-character would just sit by and watch them get turned into red paste, if one of them came screaming for help. Or how easy it would be to get other people on board to vote to ignore it.

Click to shrink...

I'm aware. I don't expect it to come to that, and my vote doesn't include any of that for a reason
I'm saying that my plan is 'oh well' because I genuinely don't think it's a likely outcome for the entire group to turn on us.

And if they do, as my edit says, the best answer is actually JPs.
(I believe the edit went through after you started responding, so look back for that.)

 

[Skelm]

There's 3 scenarios I see being possible when we show up at the house:

1. Scavengers are there; they voluntarily ghosted us on the phone.
2. Nobody is there.
3. Hostile presences are there, either armed men, demons, booby-traps, etc. Scavengers likely in trouble.

In Scenario 1, taking Midori along, I give good odds to her being able to social-fu the Scavengers. She has at least 2 in Socialize and the whole bunch of them are anti-social delinquents. Will Naomi be angry at bringing Midori there? Probably. What's the answer to calming her down? Midori herself.

If it comes to an actual fight or Naomi insisting on "dealing" with Amu's mother regardless, I'm expect to see a division amongst the members - Kana will side with Amu and if Aoi has Empathy, will realize Amu's mother is just concerned and not an actual threat. Yui probably won't do anything. Mimi is a wildcard. This would be the best opportunity to de-legitimize Naomi's authority over the group and get them to trust Amu.

In Scenario 2, taking Midori along, we get the benefit of any Investigative levels she may have in tracking them down. We'd probably spill everything to her at this point, under pretext of Scavengers likely being in trouble.

In Scenario 3, we have to fight our way out. Hopefully Saeki's precog can prevent this and if not, that's what we brought Miki along to help with. This is the only scenario where Midori should come under substantial risk of harm and the whole point of calling Saeki is to try and prevent us walking into it.

Click to shrink...

Okay, well, all those plans are also applicable if we just explain things in full to Midori first, to the extent that they're applicable at all.

I don't think I have to say much about how likely it is that Amu in-character would sit by and watch them get turned into red paste if one of them came screaming for help. Or how easy it would be to get other people on board to vote to ignore it.

Click to shrink...

Just to remind you of... your own question, you were asking Nero what we'd do if the Scavengers refuse to interact with us. You can't then turn around and complain that the hypothetical is unlikely.

 

[Simon. Andersen]

[X] Truth Will Out
-[X] You suspect there's either one of two reasons why Kana is no longer returning your calls. Either something bad has happened to them, or else they saw you on the news with the government agents and got worried that you betrayed them. If it's the first case, you ought to tell your mother everything - they'll need all the help they can get; they surely won't hold it against you if you did it to help them. If it's the second, you need to prove you haven't betrayed them.
-[X] The only way to let your mother know the truth without betraying your promise is if you take her to the Scavengers and let them tell her themselves, which will also prove to them you didn't even tell your parents anything. But if something bad happened to them, it might not be safe to take her to their house.
-[X] You don't know which one is the case, but you DO know 2 people who might potentially be able to foresee whether it would be safe to bring your mother along. One is your school principal, Tsukasa Amakawa. The other is the fortune-teller, Saeki Nobuko. You don't know whether you whether you'll be able to reach Tsukasa, but your mother is professionally acquainted with Saeki and probably has her phone number. If not, you know exactly which TV station she works at and can call there.
-[X] You know your mother has a certain regard for Saeki, perhaps not enough that Saeki could convince her to leave everything to you, but enough that if she predicted it would be safe, Midori could be convinced come with you and hold onto her questions until she can speak to the Scavengers for answers.
-[X] Call in help:
--[X] Saeki Nobuko. Without telling her anything about the Scavengers, request a reading on whether Midori would be safe if she were to come along with Amu to the house they plan on visiting shortly.
---[X] If the answer is positive:
----[X] Bring Midori Hinamori along with you on your trip, explaining that she should hear the answer from the horse's mouth instead of Amu.
----[X] Bring Miki to scout ahead, just in case her prediction was wrong - even Tsukasa wasn't able to see the demons coming, after all.
---[X] If the answer is negative, or if Saeki is unable to give you a clear answer:
----[X] The Scavengers are likely in trouble. Tell your mother everything.

 

[PistachioCookies]

She does, to about the same degree as Amu's classmates; i.e, one dot. If you asked Amu, she could tell you that... it just isn't something worth noting, because to her it's the people missing it who feel odd.

Click to shrink...

Huh. So if it's not Empathy she's using to help navigate, it's probably Clairvoyance.

That raises an issue, namely this:

Because Amu is a decent range psionic, and so we just... don't walk into the military encampment, we go get allies and precogs.

Click to shrink...

Amu has Mental Range of 1. IIRC from previous discission, that's 15 meters. Not enough to do a map of a building like we saw Aoi do in Kana's flashback memory. Aoi has to have more ranks in Mental Range than Amu, if she's using Clairvoyance to map buildings instead of taking it from someone's else perception.

If the Scavengers are in trouble, that means they got into trouble even having a navigator with better Mental Range than Amu does. Means that Amu trying to radar the place nearby could still fall victim to whatever it was that took Aoi by surprise. Not a guarantee, but something to consider (it's possible they just got attacked in their sleep or something and Aoi's Mental Range had no part in their trouble).

Okay, well, all those plans are also applicable if we just explain things in full to Midori first, to the extent that they're applicable at all.

Click to shrink...

Scenario 1 wouldn't work as well. Because Amu's mother wouldn't just be asking them for details on their situation out of concern for her daughter, she'd be... I don't know what she'd be saying if she tried to speak with them, it's a gamble, maybe she'd try to mother-hen them.

But she'd already be "in the know" and Naomi could make the argument to wipe her mind more easily, under the pretext that she already knows too much, as opposed to her clearly not knowing anything and just wanting answers.

Granted, it could still work, just not as well because Midori wouldn't clearly be innocent and the other Scavengers might trust Amu less for spilling in advance (the ones who aren't Kana, anyway).

Just to remind you of... your own question, you were asking Nero what we'd do if the Scavengers refuse to interact with us. You can't then turn around and complain that the hypothetical is unlikely.

Click to shrink...

The likelihood of it happening depends on how likely it is for the questers to vote on that for a follow-up.

You're right in that I shouldn't say it's "unlikely", since I don't really know how many people would also vote to abandon the Scavengers.... all I know is, I wouldn't.

 

[Nero200]

Huh. So if it's not Empathy she's using to help navigate, it's probably Clairvoyance.

That raises an issue, namely this:

Amu has Mental Range of 1. IIRC from previous discission, that's 15 meters. Not enough to do a map of a building like we saw Aoi do in Kana's flashback memory. Aoi has to have more ranks in Mental Range than Amu, if she's using Clairvoyance to map buildings instead of taking it from someone's else perception.

If the Scavengers are in trouble, that means they got into trouble even having a navigator with better Mental Range than Amu does. Means that Amu trying to radar the place nearby could still fall victim to whatever it was that took Aoi by surprise. Not a guarantee, but something to consider (it's possible they just got attacked in their sleep or something and Aoi's Mental Range had no part in their trouble).

Click to shrink...

If they can set up traps that trigger off detection with mental range, we are screwed anyway, because it's been noted often that Amu is always low level scanning.

I'm assuming, @Baughn, that we would be able to pick things up within the house from the road?

Scenario 1 wouldn't work as well. Because Amu's mother wouldn't just be asking them for details on their situation out of concern for her daughter, she'd be... I don't know what she'd be saying if she tried to speak with them, it's a gamble, maybe she'd try to mother-hen them.

But she'd already be "in the know" and Naomi could make the argument to wipe her mind more easily, under the pretext that she already knows too much, as opposed to her clearly not knowing anything and just wanting answers.

The likelihood of it happening depends on how likely it is for the questers to vote on that for a follow-up.

You're right in that I shouldn't say it's "unlikely", since I don't really know how many people would also vote to abandon the Scavengers.... all I know is, I wouldn't.

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Arguably, Scenario 1 would work better, because it would mean Midori has the full story to actually use her social dots that your plan relies on her using.
Not sure which way it would go in actuality, but there's an argument for either side, so I'm not seeing that as a positive to not telling.
Re: Abandoning, I'll copy it down since you may have missed it in the edit.

EDIT: If you want an actual good solution? As in, one that is likely to lead to the Scavengers surviving the next five years?
Tell JPs about them, everything about them and Manticore. JPs are the good guys who are aware of psionics.
Naomi will hate it, they will likely all consider it a betrayal, but it's probably the only way out of the death spiral they've locked themselves into.

At current trajectory, in the unlikely event they start 'winning' against Manticore, then Manticore will call on JPs to help them deal with the 'terrorist cell attacking the government with psionic powers'.

The best way to stop that is for JPs to get to them before they are declared such, and get the full story.

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This would be my actual aim to get the votes for, rather than abandoning them, because yes, Amu is bad at leaving people alone even when they want to be left alone. (See: Saaya )

 

[PistachioCookies]

This would be my actual aim to get the votes for, rather than abandoning them, because yes, Amu is bad at leaving people alone even when they want to be left alone. (See: Saaya )

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I concur, they will likely need JPs to help find a permanent solution to their drug problem.

My current fear is that JPs has a leak, or worse, Manticore is operating from inside JPs.

Hotsuin likely wouldn't tolerate their existence if he knew - but it's also implied from Lulu's interlude that Hotsuin only ascended to his position recently ("usurped their agency"), so there is a distinct possibility he just doesn't know about them yet, or if he does, is still in the process of ferreting them out and doesn't know who is clean and who isn't.

The only ones we can be reasonably certain are clean ourselves are Hotsuin and maybe Fumi.

We'd need to clean up Manticore first. The idea I had for that in the mid-term was to dig up all the information we could on them and then leverage the media connections Amu's mother had as well as the many TV and radio broadcast stations that Easter owns to publicize everything, while trying to persuade Hotsuin to go along with it and shield us from any government blowback.

Having no masquerade cuts both ways.

....The longer-term "happily-ever-after" ending I was thinking of involved having a chat with Lulu and then asking the Scavengers what they thought about moving to France.

 

[Nero200]

I concur, they will likely need JPs to help find a permanent solution to their drug problem.

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So long term, we are in agreement.

Our only real conflict is on Saeki's involvement, so lets loop back to that with the understanding that we aren't actually opposed long term?

I don't think, if we have the range to scan from outside the house (@Baughn), that involving Saeki before telling Midori and doing so is worth the added exposure to the Scavengers.

Midori is going to learn everything anyway, so my full disclosure plan has less people learning about the Scavengers over all, assuming we don't detect problems at the house. If Naomi is going to object to Midori knowing, she is going to object. I don't think strong arming her into exposing them herself is going to be taken differently to doing so, especially if Midori is going to be there anyway.

The timeline of Midori learning doesn't feel important on that front, but feels very important for convincing her that we should go.
(Saeki might be able to achieve the same effect, but that means letting more people in on the secrets for a gain we can, I believe, get without increasing the end amount of people who know about them.)

If we do detect danger within, I will happily agree to vote for dragging as much firepower and information gathering allies in as need be, but my goal at this point, where we don't know if they even need help, is to minimise exposure as much as we can without tarnishing Midori's opinion of Amu's judgement skills.

(While also setting Midori up to trust JP's more than other options, if need be.)

 

[Baughn]

if we have the range to scan from outside the house

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You do. Fifteen metres is more 'effective range' than 'maximum range'; Amu can push it to twice that if she doesn't mind spending minutes instead of seconds.

Obvious as that might be... I've added this to the description in the character sheet.

 

[PistachioCookies]

If Naomi is going to object to Midori knowing, she is going to object. I don't think strong arming her into exposing them herself is going to be taken differently to doing so, especially if Midori is going to be there anyway.

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If the Scavengers are not in trouble and need saving, I'm thinking Naomi's current paranoid mindset would be telling her: "We're probably already exposed thanks to Amu".

Not only will Naomi never be happy about us telling anyone (short of us having done so to keep her organs functioning and inside her body), I suspect she thinks we already have. On the opposite end, Kana likely disagrees. Even if she thought we did, she's probably still always going to be on our side, so long as we had good intentions for tattling.

The other 3 are the swayable ones. And their biggest influence is Naomi, the group leader/mother. If Naomi said so, they'd believe her. Amu herself certainly hasn't built up enough trust with them to dissuade that. The only one I see having a chance at being able to convince them that Naomi is wrong and that Amu can be trusted when Naomi says otherwise is Kana.

But if they are ghosting us on her orders, she clearly can't do it on her own, because if she had, Kana would be returning our calls. There needs to be something to tip the scales for Kana to make her point.

Having Naomi proven wrong about her doomsaying and ontop of that, predictably blow her lid at Amu's incredibly loving and kind mother right in front of everyone when she clearly knows nothing about anything, is the sort of thing I envision would cast doubt upon Naomi's leadership ability and spark a serious internal argument amongst them and a decision to overturn her orders.

For that reason, I feel like Midori not knowing anything beforehand is important in drumming up sympathy and doubt in Naomi from the other Scavengers. Meanwhile, her coming in having been told everything has a chance of reinforcing Naomi's paranoid logic about Amu having betrayed them.

That might not be the case - it's possible it could still spark the debate without Midori being ignorant, or that Naomi wasn't actually that paranoid and didn't dig her own grave by convincing everyone that Amu had already betrayed them.

But that's my logic surrounding that scenario.

 

[Nero200]

If the Scavengers are not in trouble and need saving, I'm thinking Naomi's current paranoid mindset would be telling her: "We're probably already exposed thanks to Amu".

Not only will Naomi never be happy about us telling anyone (short of us having done so to keep her organs functioning and inside her body), I suspect she thinks we already have. On the opposite end, Kana likely disagrees. Even if she thought we did, she's probably still always going to be on our side, so long as we had good intentions for tattling.

The other 3 are the swayable ones. And their biggest influence is Naomi, the group leader/mother. If Naomi said so, they'd believe her. Amu herself certainly hasn't built up enough trust with them to dissuade that. The only one I see having a chance at being able to convince them that Naomi is wrong and that Amu can be trusted when Naomi says otherwise is Kana.

But if they are ghosting us on her orders, she clearly can't do it on her own, because if she had, Kana would be returning our calls. There needs to be something to tip the scales for Kana to make her point.

Having Naomi proven wrong about her doomsaying and ontop of that, predictably blow her lid at Amu's incredibly loving and kind mother right in front of everyone when she clearly knows nothing about anything, is the sort of thing I envision would cast doubt upon Naomi's leadership ability and spark a serious internal argument amongst them and a decision to overturn her orders.

For that reason, I feel like Midori not knowing anything beforehand is important in drumming up sympathy and doubt in Naomi from the other Scavengers. Meanwhile, her coming in having been told everything has a chance of reinforcing Naomi's paranoid logic about Amu having betrayed them.

That might not be the case - it's possible it could still spark the debate without Midori being ignorant, or that Naomi wasn't actually that paranoid and didn't dig her own grave by convincing everyone that Amu had already betrayed them.

But that's my logic surrounding that scenario.

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Right, I mostly agree with that.
I'm not however sure that aiming for Naomi losing support is a good play.
Mostly because Naomi, on her own, is likely much less able to obtain the drugs, while still possible being black and white enough to walk out after losing support.
Which would likely lead to her dying from withdrawl, or being recaptured by Manticore because she lacks the rest of her team to continue the raids.

That feels like something to vote on when we actually arrive though, and see the current situation.

RE: Pre-Disclosing.

I'm in agreement that Midori being informed is something that could swing it, but I think that telling Saeki will guarantee it.

Your current plan means confirming Naomi's (theoretical) suspicions that Amu betrayed them (It would mean telling a precog where they live, and having her scry on them), without the buffer of 'I only told the minimum needed to get here to check on you, and told someone who already met Kana' as an excuse/justification.

The possible issues with telling Midori before arriving are ones that are guaranteed to trigger if Amu gets Saeki to scry before hand.

With that in mind, to get there we need to do one of those two things, at least within the scope of our two plans.
One has a chance of setting Naomi off (Midori, my plan), the other pretty much guarantees it (Midori and Saeki, your plan).

(This is, of course, assuming that Naomi is a strong enough psionic to read Midori/Amu/Miki's mind and tell who she told, or that Kana will tell her. But if she is, then we need to be telling the truth, and if she isn't, then she won't be able to tell that we told Midori in advance, and so we get the best of both worlds with my plan, in that we aren't exposing them more than needed and can play down how much Midori already knows.)

 

[PistachioCookies]

I'm of the opinion that Midori being informed is something that could swing it, but that telling Saeki will guarantee it.
Your current plan means confirming Naomi's suspicions that Amu betrayed them (It would mean telling a precog where they live, and having her scry on them), without the buffer of 'I only told the minimum needed to get here to check on you, and told someone who already met Kana'.

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That is the reason why I put in the caveat "Without telling her anything about the Scavengers" in the vote. That was implicitly meant to include anything about the house they were going to visit, not just the occupants.

In fact, I would've written the vote to say exactly: "Request a reading with the question: 'Will Midori Hinamori be safe if she were to come along with Amu to the house they plan on visiting shortly?'"

Except I remember being told to not be so specific with wording and that one should allow Amu to use her good judgment when it comes to these matters. So I just went with the broad "anything about the Scavengers" instead.

I have faith that Amu will not be so obtuse as to give her the exact address. And that if it results in an unclear reading, so be it.