Baughn
Healing-type writer
- Location
- Dublin
Downstairs. Midori ran up to the bathroom to play 'spy' with Amu...
That feels like ages ago, but it hasn't been that many minutes since this conversation started.
Shards of a Broken Sun [Megaten/Shugo Chara/Exalted]
- Thread starter Baughn
- Start date
- Crossover
That feels like ages ago, but it hasn't been that many minutes since this conversation started.
Nero200
High Priest of Eito, Part Time Nyar.
The Saeki Nobuko plan seems to be working on a base assumption that Saeki is someone that Midori respects enough to listen to on the topic of her childs safety.
I'm reasonably sure this is not the case.
Midori isn't stupid, she's not going to listen to a column writing psychic on "Should I let my kid(s) go somewhere they seem to think they might be shot?".
Also, just from what we know meta-wise from the anime & quest thus far, Saeki is not anything close to a reliable precog.
The principle is more reliable, and his precog has failed in the run of the quest already.
(Or he willingly allowed multiple children to die, and for Saaya to slowly commit suicide under his watch. In which case Amu has bigger issues to deal with.)
So even if she was as good as the guy running the largest collective of psionics we know of (Seiyo Academy), her precog isn't reliable.
And I'm pretty sure she's worse than him. By a lot. Otherwise she would have shown more actual skill and knowledge in her appearances, rather than being directed entirely by a bunch of preteens.
(Unless she's actually running a multi-year precog plot that involved inspiring Amu to tri-chara status to get the locket, and thus the entire events of the show, but I somehow doubt that's the case. We know who did that, it was Tsukasa.)
I'm reasonably sure this is not the case.
Midori isn't stupid, she's not going to listen to a column writing psychic on "Should I let my kid(s) go somewhere they seem to think they might be shot?".
Also, just from what we know meta-wise from the anime & quest thus far, Saeki is not anything close to a reliable precog.
The principle is more reliable, and his precog has failed in the run of the quest already.
(Or he willingly allowed multiple children to die, and for Saaya to slowly commit suicide under his watch. In which case Amu has bigger issues to deal with.)
So even if she was as good as the guy running the largest collective of psionics we know of (Seiyo Academy), her precog isn't reliable.
And I'm pretty sure she's worse than him. By a lot. Otherwise she would have shown more actual skill and knowledge in her appearances, rather than being directed entirely by a bunch of preteens.
(Unless she's actually running a multi-year precog plot that involved inspiring Amu to tri-chara status to get the locket, and thus the entire events of the show, but I somehow doubt that's the case. We know who did that, it was Tsukasa.)
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Eternal_0bserver
(Unverified Bookworm)
- Location
- Earth, Northern Europe
Basically, I'm sure that if we tell everything, Amu's mom will just make sure that it's too dangerous for her. Not that this is an unreasonable opinion. She may well feel sorry for Kana and her group, but these are not her children, and so far they seem to be getting by.
She would probably outright forbid Amu's participation, suggesting that the resolution of the situation be left to Tsukasa or other adults.
She would probably outright forbid Amu's participation, suggesting that the resolution of the situation be left to Tsukasa or other adults.
- Location
- Laniakea
We literally see how Saeki's precog works in the manga - she gets actual vision and sounds when she tries to precog. It was accurate enough for the Guardians to work out the location she was seeing. More than just a sensation or vague "feeling" (like Amu would apparently get with her rank 1 Precognition, which means by quest standards she's got at least level 2 in Precog).
The fact that precognition in this quest is inherently unreliable is because this is a quest - in Shugo Chara canon, it works just fine. The fact that Tsukasa's works better is beside the point.
No, this plan works on the base assumption that Saeki is someone Midori respects enough to listen to at all and can distract Midori enough that she switches targets to try and pull information out of her instead of continuing to grill Amu. Her primary role is to be a circuit breaker for the conversation - the only one I can think of that Midori might be willing to hear out in any capacity at the moment, who has a decent chance of not siding with Midori herself.
Whether she can actually convince Midori to back off is actually pretty irrelevant.
Anything Midori learns about the Scavengers from Saeki is also not Amu's fault and would not break any promises made.
However much or little she decides to rant at Saeki during their chat, we will also then have gotten her reading on whether it is safe to bring Midori to the Scavengers' property.
If the answer is yes, we can then avoid directly spilling anything by getting Midori to talk to the Scavengers directly.
If the answer is no, we will probably get an interrupt, where we can then opt to fully disclose everything on account of the now-known danger. Or just continue to try what everyone insists on trying right now and half-ass an explanation, fail and have Midori dig out the truth anyway.
There's basically nothing to lose, except perhaps making Saeki curious, and everything to gain.
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Nero200
High Priest of Eito, Part Time Nyar.
My point is more that her precog isn't reliable, and that saying it is / Amu trying to say that it is, would be a lie.
And we've covered Amu's ability to lie to Midori already.
If Midori doesn't get everything she wants from Saeki, she's just going to turn back to Amu.
At which point, why didn't we just tell her it all to start with?
If we are going to call in precog support, we should go for the best precog available. There's no point in half-arsing it if we are going to involve other adults anyway.
Though, to be honest, if we are going to call in actual adult help, I would be voting for calling JPs / Hotsuin, not Saeki or Tsukasa. He's in a position to actually help with official resources and likely has the connections needed to bring the Scavengers in from the cold.
Sending someone to seek out information on someone you promised not tell about may technically not be breaking the promise, but the Scavangers are not going to see it that way. They aren't Fae.
And Amu, as mentioned, also isn't a Fae.
Technically not breaking her word is meaningless, it still involves pissing off / betraying the people who she promised not to reveal anything about.
But also, as previously mentioned, the promise was dumb to start with, and the Scavengers don't seem to have an end plan beyond "Continue killing government employees".
Considering JPs is also part of the government, if the Scavengers manage the extremely slim chance of succeeding in their plan, they will be getting ganked by demon summoning JP agents the next day, because they will be, in the eyes of the people in power, serial killing terrorists.
If they manage to win against trained combat operatives with demons, then Hotsuin will likely get involved directly, at which point they become smears on the nearest surface.
There is not a good end for the Scavengers, walking their current path, unless they plan on leaving the country and fleeing to another continent on the backs of their UMI abilities. And even that I have doubts about.
I've mostly covered this in the rest of the post, but the loss is breaking the promise anyway, in spirit, and involving an adult whose visions can't be trusted.
Saeki doesn't seem more useful than just, you know, walking within two blocks of the building and doing a mental scan for the Scavengers.
That doesn't cost anything, so in the spirit you've expressed of yes/no, that seems like a better question/test to do first?
Tell Midori what she wants to know, because assuming Saeki's ability works, she will know it anyway / ask us again, and then go do the lowest cost checking measure.
Once that is done, we can know if going into their home is actually a useful action, and then talk about what precog support / allies are best to be called on to help with said action.
EDIT: @Baughn Considering Amu has been in Kana's head, can we get a check on how much she thinks 'technically' not breaking the promise is going to be worth to Kana & co. ?
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- Pronouns
- He
Why not Amu shcool principal. He is someone Amu know and trust.
- Location
- Laniakea
And my point is that her precog, canonically-speaking, is reliable.
She wasn't "directed entirely by a bunch of preteens" either, she was the one who "luckily" found them and bailed them out at the TV station.
Amu has no reason to suddenly believe it's not reliable. Amu doesn't know she's in a quest, she doesn't know that Saeki's precognition is actually unreliable because it is now suddenly running on quest mechanics. She even suspects that Tsukasa's is still reliable and that he deliberately let the demon attack happen and had to force herself to "hope" that it's wasn't the case.
The fact that we questers know precog is unreliable is only because we had the QM telling us so.
Which, by the way, is also why I put in the part where we take Miki along to scout just in case the reading was bad and there were problems.
Yes, contrary to what Skelm seems to think, I DID think my plan through.
Hoping Saeki may share info with Midori is MY ulterior motive as the stunt-writer, not what I am voting for Amu's in-story motivation to be for calling Saeki for help.
Amu herself would just be calling her hoping that Saeki could convince her mother to back off. She wouldn't be thinking of trying to Houdini her own promise by it.
We're not going to be able to GET within 2 blocks of the building, without first convincing Midori that it is OK for us to step outside of the house.
Midori herself coming along is how we convince her to let us step outside our own house.
Saeki is how we know it will be safe to bring Midori along and also how we ease Midori into the idea of even letting us out, on promise of having the full story when she speaks to the Scavengers.
Midori is known to have respect for Saeki and probably has her number. If not, we know she works at Television Eastern Region.
Tsukasa is famously uncontactable (would probably have to go through Tadase or something to reach him) and we don't know how much respect Midori has for him.
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Baughn
Healing-type writer
- Location
- Dublin
The impossibility of writing a quest with questor-dispatchable precog, or absolute 100% accurate future vision, is the out-of-story explanation for it. There's also an in-story explanation for why precog works less well now than it used to earlier, but no-one has guessed at it yet, IIRC. Except Fumi, and she isn't in the thread.
Essentially nothing.
Kana trusts Amu—probably a bit more than she should—and doesn't care about the promise, which was essentially made under duress. She's fine with anything so long as it won't her friends or Amu herself, and this is something Amu knows in-character. Amu, of course, trusts Midori more than Saeko; she'd feel worse about letting the latter in on this.
Naomi...
Naomi doesn't trust anyone, I don't think, but she's highly motivated to keep her charges safe. Up until, and so long as, they don't betray her. She doesn't want information to get out.
Yui is nine; she hasn't thought this through much beyond "Yay! Another onee-san!"
Aoi is more of a genuine big-sister figure, and far less likely to unperson Amu because of a 'mistake'. This actually makes her less predictable, plus Amu hasn't interacted with her much.
There's also a fifth member, whom Amu's never met.
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Nero200
High Priest of Eito, Part Time Nyar.
So to clarify, because I feel like we talking past one another.
Your intent with the vote is to reveal the knowledge, without Amu deliberately doing so?
By using in-character reason while having out-of-character understanding of how it will actually go down?
This isn't meant to be accusatory, I'm trying to figure out what your goal actually is, rather than arguing methods, because I think we actually have different goals / desired results and are arguing like we have the same ones.
Good to know. So accidental / deliberate reveal have essentially the same reactions from everyone we know about.
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- Location
- Laniakea
Basically.
Unless you're the QM, there's no real way to know in advance how much information Saeki will actually be able to see in her visions and tell Midori. In the ideal event, she would see police getting hurt and tell Midori that would be a bad idea. And see Amu and Midori knocking on the door and a girl opening it. Ideally, she'd never find out anything specific about the Scavengers themselves or Manticore. Amu wouldn't tell Saeki anything except maybe the house address.
That would be ideal scenario, upon which the rest of the written vote would follow with us taking Midori and Miki and having the Scavengers explain themselves to Amu's mother.
Of course, this is a highly specific scenario and unlikely to happen. In the event Saeki sees something that precludes taking Midori along - armed men in military gear hiding there, a bomb attached to the door, absolutely nobody in the house, etc. - my out-of-character understanding tells me we'd get an interrupt, where we could use the information to decide what to do next.
In-character-wise, Amu would just be hoping Saeki would see her mother happily chatting with Kana and tell her to come along and get the story from the Scavengers without pressing Amu directly.
EDIT: Kinda in the same way voting for Amu to have a nervous breakdown would in-character be Amu having a nervous breakdown. While out-of-character, it would really be to get away from Midori and call Utau. Not that I am going to vote for the nervous breakdown.
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Baughn
Healing-type writer
- Location
- Dublin
Wouldn't be the same reaction. One is "Amu is terribly careless", the other is "Amu betrayed us", and while Naomi might think otherwise, they'd lead to different responses from literally everyone else in the group.
This is all, of course, assuming nothing terrible is going on. If Amu ends up being the Big Damn Hero then however she got there is likely to be overlooked.
I regret that I have but one reaction to give this post. It deserves all of them.
I can probably let on that Midori and Tsumugu's reaction isn't fully settled. They've had less than a week of knowing about what their kids are up to, and the revelations are still coming.
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Nero200
High Priest of Eito, Part Time Nyar.
Right, my intent is to have Amu deliberately reveal it in an attempt to help.
So we were working from different intents, which has our arguing make more sense in retrospect.
(I am also working an angle of effecting other characters actions/opinions, but my goal is to try and position Midori's first 'port of call' in the government as JPs by highlighting them as the good guys, if anything goes south with Manticore/Scavengers. Since we know, OoC from DeSu2, that JPs are genuinely trying to do good in the world, and they have Amu's friend Lulu involved here.)
In my opinion, Midori isn't going to be satisfied with a predication of no harm, she is still going to push for a full explanation of why Amu and Miki though there would be a risk of getting shot.
If a full explanation is going to happen anyway, I think it would be better to limit the amount of outsiders we are essentially exposing the Scavengers to, and keeping it within the family might help with Naomi's opinion.
- Location
- Laniakea
My first guess was that it might have something to do with multiple Exalts walking around in the near future who can't be precog'd, but if Fumi Kanno has an idea it's probably not Exalts. So my second guess is it's to do with the impending Conception. Having futures where the world is completely messed up or gone entirely probably doesn't do good things for precognition.
Or if it turns out Devil Survivor 2's version of precognition through the Akashic Records is different from the psionic kind used by people like Amu and Tsukasa that apparently relies on the Sea of Souls, might even be multiple types of precognitive abilities interfering with one another.
Please do not let this fifth member be an Accelerator expy.
Baughn
Healing-type writer
- Location
- Dublin
Well, it's a girl.
- Location
- Laniakea
....Yeah, speaking of which.
Amu herself still never found out exactly what's going on with that mind-reader friend her own little sister keeps hanging out with. The one that needed to be a mind-reader for plot reasons. Even after a week of bonding time.
Guess she'll join the club with her parents once she finds out.
I feel like I should note that Amu could also just act like a magical girl in this situation, one that is publicly known perhaps. Which is she can also just decisively assert she's going because it's important, she has to make sure everyone is ok, no matter what. And that she can't tell exactly why because she promised to not talk about it.
Yeah her mother wouldn't be super thrilled about it all, but it would definitely work and be another way through the matter. And it would unlike what everyone else postulates, thus cut through the Midori will keep asking till she finds out matter.
As such it's totally possible to reach ones goal and keep the secret, it would come at the cost of worrying ones mother more. But long term that is kind of inevitable anyway the future situation isn't going to be getting any better after all. So making it clear that Amu can't and won't run away, and that she can't be protected from all the dangers of the world, could be argued to be as important in setting a good understanding in what way the future will be developing for her parents. It is after all pretty unrealistic to think that Amu can inform her parents about every little thing that will be happening in the future or have their input on every danger. JP surely will for instance have their projects and will want their secrets kept.
As such, does telling this secret actually serve any good purpose? Is there some good goal to gain from it vs the potential trust loss from the scavengers?
Yeah her mother wouldn't be super thrilled about it all, but it would definitely work and be another way through the matter. And it would unlike what everyone else postulates, thus cut through the Midori will keep asking till she finds out matter.
As such it's totally possible to reach ones goal and keep the secret, it would come at the cost of worrying ones mother more. But long term that is kind of inevitable anyway the future situation isn't going to be getting any better after all. So making it clear that Amu can't and won't run away, and that she can't be protected from all the dangers of the world, could be argued to be as important in setting a good understanding in what way the future will be developing for her parents. It is after all pretty unrealistic to think that Amu can inform her parents about every little thing that will be happening in the future or have their input on every danger. JP surely will for instance have their projects and will want their secrets kept.
As such, does telling this secret actually serve any good purpose? Is there some good goal to gain from it vs the potential trust loss from the scavengers?
- Location
- Laniakea
It's Amu's mother. She sleeps in the same house as the daughter. They live together.
Amu's allowance comes from her parents. She has a younger sister who also lives in the same house who will become very upset if Amu and her mother stopped getting along. Let's not even get to the father.
If we were worried about trying to squeeze additional training time without worrying the parents, just imagine what her circumstances would be like with a mother trying to actively impede her daughter at every turn.
The Scavengers are a friendly bunch to Amu.
But she doesn't live in the same house as them.
Amu's allowance comes from her parents. She has a younger sister who also lives in the same house who will become very upset if Amu and her mother stopped getting along. Let's not even get to the father.
If we were worried about trying to squeeze additional training time without worrying the parents, just imagine what her circumstances would be like with a mother trying to actively impede her daughter at every turn.
The Scavengers are a friendly bunch to Amu.
But she doesn't live in the same house as them.
We're already at the point of there being impeding. Also I'm not sure why you'd want to postulate that Midori, who seems to be a really good parent, would instead change in to being a toxic parent who impedes at every point.
Seems far more likely to me that they'd try to reach a compromise solution then do something so foolish as that.
Seems far more likely to me that they'd try to reach a compromise solution then do something so foolish as that.
- Location
- Laniakea
Midori still trusts her daughter right now.
If Amu shuts her out completely, that trust is gone. At that point, there's no predicting what Midori might do out of concern for her daughter. Especially if she later found out (from JPs for example) that she was hanging around with a gang of psychic serial killers.
I can imagine her deciding that Amu is out of control and at risk of getting herself killed and call Hotsuin and beg him to send someone to stop Amu for her own safety.
She wouldn't be a toxic parent, just a desperate one.
This is the first time she's impeding us, but it's also a tipping point. If we alienate Midori now, she probably won't stop her efforts but also get increasingly desperate and unpredictable.
If Amu shuts her out completely, that trust is gone. At that point, there's no predicting what Midori might do out of concern for her daughter. Especially if she later found out (from JPs for example) that she was hanging around with a gang of psychic serial killers.
I can imagine her deciding that Amu is out of control and at risk of getting herself killed and call Hotsuin and beg him to send someone to stop Amu for her own safety.
She wouldn't be a toxic parent, just a desperate one.
This is the first time she's impeding us, but it's also a tipping point. If we alienate Midori now, she probably won't stop her efforts but also get increasingly desperate and unpredictable.
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Nero200
High Priest of Eito, Part Time Nyar.
This is part of why I'm voting for full disclosure. It's a chance to reveal it all when not under a time crunch or after going behind her back and getting shot
Well fortunately she wouldn't be shutting her out then, rather she'd be very forthright on when she ran in to a secret. As well as being very honest about going out of concern for a friend and that she would simply be doing so. It's even been suggested that they have 'problems' and aren't entirely safe.
So it's not like there is some huge thing being kept completely from her, rather then a clearly delineated area that can't be talked about. This is better already then her keeping a boy secretly in her bedroom, which was quite the shenanigan for her to get up to really.
So I think the suggestion here that there would be some kind of terrible reveal is a bit of an overstatement of what's actually going on. As well as an over estimation on how her mother would react to this. The trust in question is if Amu thinks this matter is correctly important and if she gave a reasonable estimation of the danger. And I think it is hard to argue she did not.
As such she told all she could, while not creating unrealistic expectations.
Beyond that I doubt she'd go to JP, a secret agency covering up psychic matters and that you can get no insights on. Going to that is not a reliable recourse for a good parent. It's really hard to know what they'd actually do after all, one can be doubtful about if everything would be legal... or even what you'd want for your child.
As such, I think the risks are being vastly overestimated to what they actually are and that different dynamics with her parents are very much possible. Arguably it might even be inevitable, as the world isn't going to get safer and it is probably better they get used to their daughter being a bit of a magical girl in outlook of helping and protecting others, no matter how much she denies that she is one.
So it's not like there is some huge thing being kept completely from her, rather then a clearly delineated area that can't be talked about. This is better already then her keeping a boy secretly in her bedroom, which was quite the shenanigan for her to get up to really.
So I think the suggestion here that there would be some kind of terrible reveal is a bit of an overstatement of what's actually going on. As well as an over estimation on how her mother would react to this. The trust in question is if Amu thinks this matter is correctly important and if she gave a reasonable estimation of the danger. And I think it is hard to argue she did not.
As such she told all she could, while not creating unrealistic expectations.
Beyond that I doubt she'd go to JP, a secret agency covering up psychic matters and that you can get no insights on. Going to that is not a reliable recourse for a good parent. It's really hard to know what they'd actually do after all, one can be doubtful about if everything would be legal... or even what you'd want for your child.
As such, I think the risks are being vastly overestimated to what they actually are and that different dynamics with her parents are very much possible. Arguably it might even be inevitable, as the world isn't going to get safer and it is probably better they get used to their daughter being a bit of a magical girl in outlook of helping and protecting others, no matter how much she denies that she is one.
NHO
Dumb is a state of existence
- Location
- ᓚᘏᗢ
This doesn't assail the fears that fifth member is Accelerator expy. Like, at all.
Baughn
Healing-type writer
- Location
- Dublin
It isn't a picture of Mimi, tho.
Eternal_0bserver
(Unverified Bookworm)
- Location
- Earth, Northern Europe
*Cough* Suzushina Yuriko *cough*.
- Location
- Laniakea
So is the fifth member named Mimi?
Or is the fifth member really named Suzushina Yuriko and look exactly like the picture, with this random mention of a "Mimi" just meant as a distraction?
Or is the fifth member really named Suzushina Yuriko and look exactly like the picture, with this random mention of a "Mimi" just meant as a distraction?