Shards of a Broken Sun [Megaten/Shugo Chara/Exalted]

Is the red set of brackets how the clauses are to be interpreted, or the blue set?
I'm not sure I quite see the difference. But to rephrase: While in some cases (shadows dropping money) I'm happy to declare it a game mechanic, the training rates shown in the games are too consistent and well integrated with the plot to do that. So I came up with an in-story explanation. Several, actually; the Demi-Fiend actually had an on screen explanation, but Magatama obviously aren't available.

That said, what Amu is doing is fairly unusual.

Faster than Solar Training Rate??
More hours.

Assuming she'll stay in school long term is… an assumption. You probably aren't doing that, so there's one bookend for it, but …

You'll see.
 
There are at least 2 other easy explanations I can think of beyond "Amu decides not to attend any more, possibly with her friends quitting as well", and a few other less probable ones:

1) Amu or Psionics end up having whichever school they go to destroyed due to Excessive Attention by the darker sides of this crossover or Psionic Shenanigans. This repeats enough times that everyone rolls their eyes, gives up and start looking for alternative solutions (homeschooling?).
  • By this point the PR Bane will likely have run its course in potential harm since I don't see things getting much worse from there without deliberate efforts or really stupid things occuring
2) JPs or Manticore (PR Friendly side) start paying attention and ask them to join their training programs for future planning.
  • The PR Bane becomes rendered irrelevant by JPs or Manticore going public and leveraging their official capacity to make this happen (maybe they will claim responsibility and credit as a shield for them to have Psionic stuff folded under Government doing Government Things)?
3) Curriculum Revamp/Shift in Education Focus
  • How the PR Bane interacts with this really, really depends on the dot level and foresight of the main movers and shakers of this possibility, I can't say much about this in a vacuum right now.
4) Hikawa does something and namedrops Psionics or similar supernatural effects, leading to things starting to go really wild
  • Not sure if this is a Conspiracy Theory or something actually plausible lmao
 
Assuming she'll stay in school long term is… an assumption. You probably aren't doing that, so there's one bookend for it, but …

You'll see.
Hum. 😑
There are at least 2 other easy explanations I can think of beyond "Amu decides not to attend any more, possibly with her friends quitting as well", and a few other less probable ones:
My gut feeling says, we might actually be thinking too small.

I can see one way that Amu's timetable might suddenly undergo a radical shift, without a correspondingly large amount of fuss being raised by anyone.

And that's if there is a sudden, massive reality warping incident that encompasses the whole of Japan (or even the world), such that it is suddenly normal for all schools to be giving their students copious amounts of free time. Like, something on the scale of what happened in Persona 5 Royal's Third Semester.

And the only ones who notice the change in reality are psionics like Amu.

.....Alternatively, there's also the time-loops possibility. Can't really suffer long-term consequences if everything reverts back after 24 or 48 hours and the only ones who remember the loops are psionics like Amu.

That one was on the table even before this, owing to that suspicious redacted comment about "ten months".
 
Although we are probably going to get Favored/Caste abilities and Training charms, too.

There are at least 2 other easy explanations I can think of beyond "Amu decides not to attend any more, possibly with her friends quitting as well", and a few other less probable ones:
The entire school system is fairly likely to shut down during the "main plot". If Amu hasn't left school by then, that'll stop her from attending.

3) Curriculum Revamp/Shift in Education Focus
  • How the PR Bane interacts with this really, really depends on the dot level and foresight of the main movers and shakers of this possibility, I can't say much about this in a vacuum right now.
I think there's a decent chance the students themselves will be the main movers and shakers here.
 
The entire school system is fairly likely to shut down during the "main plot". If Amu hasn't left school by then, that'll stop her from attending.
We know that is going to happen 100% for certain if we fail to stop Hikawa.

Not going to be any more school if there's, well, not any more schools.

Kinda was working under the assumption our goal was to stop things from getting to that point, though.
 
Succeed at it and there may still be schools, but… Amu will likely have been in spotlight while doing it. You can, of course, attempt to prevent that.
Yeah, but that's still probably not gonna get her out of school.

Teen idols, actors, sports superstars and royal children all get showered with media spotlight too and they still go to school, just usually a very expensive one with an army of private security guards and sometimes under a pseudonym.

Seiyo Academy appears to fit the bill for all that, especially if Hikaru is able to attend, in fact, there is probably no safer high school in all of Tokyo - the entire student corpus IS the security.

The demon attack only looks bad until you remember the rift that led to the demon attack wasn't actually caused by an external party, but by 2 of the students getting pissed at each other.

Amu getting into the spotlight for stopping Hikawa is more likely to cause trouble for her outside school, not in it. Not unless she breaks so many laws doing it, she's a full delinquent on the run from the Japanese government like the rest of the Scavengers.

.....And even then, there's still a chance her safehouse ends up being Tsukasa's hidden room underneath Seiyo Academy and she ends up taking refuge there anyway, in disguise with a fake student ID and name.
 
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Finished up the training optimiser, as far as that's going to happen for now. You can find it here.

I'm now on vacation, which means I can spend time writing again. Phew.

This over-the-top program attempts to optimally assign what time Amu has available for training, such that she makes the most effective use of her day possible. In effect it's an attempt at resolving what's probably the most boring part of those rules; it's still entirely up to you what to train, and for that matter what she's optimising for. The constraints are what they are, but at the moment the optimisation target is "Make as much progress in total per day as possible", with some stub code for "-but prioritise this one skill".

Some different policies she could use include:

- Maximise the amount of training time spent on the skill that's making least progress.
- Maximise the amount of training time spent on the skill that's making the most progress.

And probably a lot more... but the current policy feels pretty reasonable. As for the results...

= =

This one produces partially random output, which makes it unusable to me. It's included only for completeness; all the others have a total preference ordering, even if the degree to which one skill is preferred over another is in the 0.00001% range.

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-03: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-23: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
2009-12-13: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
Total ROI: 240.00, ROI/day: 4.14
Total Wasted Time: 23.20 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.40 hours
...by just a little bit. This type of policy gets you Integrity ASAP, without wasting any time. In principle.

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-30: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
2009-12-01: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-12-03: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
Total ROI: 240.00, ROI/day: 5.00
Total Wasted Time: 1.84 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.04 hours
'cause why not? It's already the fastest one to train. Let's say by 30,000%.

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-18: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-29: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
2009-12-08: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
Total ROI: 240.00, ROI/day: 4.53
Total Wasted Time: 5.54 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.10 hours

The only real effect is training gets less efficient.
Ditto...

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-18: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-29: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
2009-12-08: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
Total ROI: 240.00, ROI/day: 4.53
Total Wasted Time: 5.54 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.10 hours

Well, it finished one day faster! I don't think it's much of a spoiler to say that this won't matter.

It's interesting to see the large effect on when Lore finishes. That's hard to predict, and in theory the real best solution would require optimising across the entire schedule at once, but it's still only five days. Really quite unlikely to matter as well.

= =

Which sums up as: There are multiple possible definitions of 'optimal', but all the sensible ones end up pretty close overall. Certainly well within the margin for error.

Now let's get back to the irregularly scheduled Amu. :V
 
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With the current training setup, I don't think "Prefer Dreamwalking" actually does anything, at least unless you set the preference so high the solver stops trying to overlap the training.

"Prefer Lore" should finish Lore 1.5 a day after Dreamwalking 2 finishes - 23 hours of school time, plus some after-school training on the 23rd day. That might be worth going for, depending on other factors. Particularly, if we don't change our training vote as soon as this arc finishes, we'll probably want to change up our training vote after Dreamwalking 2 finishes. Having Lore 1.5 finish around the same time could simplify things a little.
 
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We do not currently care about Lore training speed (since it's more narrative justification than anything else), and so the first schedule seems good.
Fits within the 2 month 'limit' too, and we have used Lore literally never (publicly, anyway) before so it should be fine?
Doesn't make sense we'd need Lore 2 to test out, even in Japan; and last I checked we don't want to test out (without our classmates) anyway so even if it did that won't matter for us anytime soon.

Particularly, if we don't change our training vote as soon as this arc finishes
Probably going to try and add Socialisation and/or Medicine to the training pile myself and see what happens in the solver, but the latter will probably only go through in a vote if we can convince Midori & Tsumugu to free up an additional time block solely for Medicine (and/or Lore)?

Baughn, can I assume the required software to play around with the code here is mapLit, good_lp and Cargo, or are there other things too?
 
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We do not currently care about Lore training speed (since it's more narrative justification than anything else), and so the first schedule seems good.
Fits within the 2 month 'limit' too, and we have used Lore literally never (publicly, anyway) before so it should be fine?
Doesn't make sense we'd need Lore 2 to test out, even in Japan; and last I checked we don't want to test out (without our classmates) anyway so even if it did that won't matter for us anytime soon.


Probably going to try and add Socialisation and/or Medicine to the training pile myself and see what happens in the solver, but the latter will probably only go through in a vote if we can convince Midori & Tsumugu to free up an additional time block solely for Medicine (and/or Lore)?

Baughn, can I assume the required software to play around with the code here is mapLit, good_lp and Cargo, or are there other things too?
Prioritizing Lore would be more a matter of simplifying future training plans. Our training performance takes a significant dip after Dreamwalking finishes, as our highest overlap bonuses are all tied to Dreamwalking. At the very least, we'd want to change our stunt at that point. If Dreamwalking and Lore finish within a day of each other, we don't have to re-optimize as many times.

Medicine seems unlikely to be an efficient addition at the moment. I think we'd want to wait until Dreamwalking finishes, at least.

Socialize should hopefully be efficient, if we can count more time towards our training schedule that way. It'll require solver enhancements to account for tutoring restrictions, though.
 
simplifying future training plans
Makes sense. I guess we could also throw 1 XP for Dreamwalking 3, and then leave the sleeping time to prioritise Integrity just for the 'overlap' time too? (Since 30min/day is about 120 hours of training after Dreamwalking 2 by the time the Apocalypse starts)
Lore/Integrity has partial overlap which is also interesting for the future, though reading textbooks while Dreamwalking makes no sense whatsoever.

tutoring restrictions
I asked Baughn about those earlier, their response was that they won't be bothering accounting for those because of the headache (which, fair enough; I think that would be about 10 constraints and a set of additional information to keep track of that wouldn't be needed otherwise).
 
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I asked Baughn about those earlier, their response was that they won't be bothering accounting for those because of the headache (which, fair enough; I think that would be about 10 constraints and a set of additional information to keep track of that wouldn't be needed otherwise).
That was for schedules interacting with each other. If we just assume "Midori is available in the evening", the constraint is just "Evening Socialize time must be >= 25% of total Socialize time", with adjustment for how Baughn wants to say that interacts with overlap.

Makes sense. I guess we could also throw 1 XP for Dreamwalking 3, and then leave the sleeping time to prioritise Integrity just for the 'overlap' time too? (Since 30min/day is about 120 hours of training after Dreamwalking 2 by the time the Apocalypse starts)
Dreamwalking is looking a lot more important than it did back when we first voted for Dreamwalking 2, when we were largely just picking it for training optimization and Ami hangout time. Better Dreamwalking would have helped a lot for this adventure, and I don't think we're done exploring shadow labyrinths.

If we need to try Pistachio's Road of Stars fragment retrieval idea, Dreamwalking is probably going to be important for that too. We'll need to know more about what state the Yuis are in before we can see if that idea is even applicable, though.

I sure hope Big Yui is still alive. As long as she doesn't outright die, there's hope, even if we have to bust out the heavyweight option of Solar Medicine to cure the incurable. If she dies, or if she's already dead... well, maybe that's fixable too, but things get a lot bleaker.


@Baughn, I think there's a bug in the target hours computation:

Code:
fn effective_training_hours_needed(skill: &str, current_rank: f32) -> f32 {

This doesn't handle fractional ranks, and the call site doesn't adjust for fractional ranks either. That's why Lore is taking so long, and why the solver outputs list a total ROI of 240 instead of 216.
 
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If we need to try Pistachio's Road of Stars fragment retrieval idea, Dreamwalking is probably going to be important for that too.
I suppose it does also matter for the whole "evacuate everyone into CU and hope nothing breaks in the apocalypse" plan?

This doesn't handle fractional ranks, and the call site doesn't adjust for fractional ranks either. That's why Lore is taking so long, and why the solver outputs list a total ROI of 240 instead of 216.
Do we even want to use fractional ranks instead of start rank, already invested hours and additionally desired hours?
That is ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 0 hours already trained, 24 more training hours desired or something) or ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 0 hours already trained, 1.5 dot target) instead of ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 1.5 dot target)

Since next (, next, next) round we are likely to eventually commit to training Lore 1.5 to Lore 2, and the sanity checks for training where both start and end can be fractional are significantly more complicated
 
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Do we even want to use fractional ranks instead of start rank, already invested hours and additionally desired hours?
That is ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 0 hours already trained, 24 more training hours desired or something) or ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 0 hours already trained, 1.5 dot target) instead of ("Lore", 1 skill dot present, 1.5 dot target)

Since next (, next, next) round we are likely to eventually commit to training Lore 1.5 to Lore 2, and the sanity checks for training where both start and end can be fractional are significantly more complicated
It probably doesn't matter too much either way. Inputting hours directly shifts a little work from the code to the user, but it's not that much work on either end.

We're going to have much messier starting points than "Lore 1.5" when we switch a training vote before finishing training and have, like, 42% of an Illusion rank, but I don't think hour-based or rank-based input has much of an advantage there either.
 
We're going to have much messier starting points than "Lore 1.5"
True, but if you can guarantee that the left hand side is always an integer, that means sanity checks for not training more than to the next full dot at a time is easier; as if you can't that means you need to split things into two cases and mess with ceilings and floors.

(Lore 1.5 to Lore 2.3 fits the left hand side >= right hand side - 1 criteria, but has incorrect time and XP computations due to the way things are currently calculated)

On the other hand, I suppose it would be an equally valid solution to just modify the calculations of how time and XP are done to account for such cases, and one that requires slightly less rewriting too?
 
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And probably a lot more... but the current policy feels pretty reasonable. As for the results...
The output for "Prefer Integrity" and "Prefer Dreamwalking" are exactly the same, looks like you copied one of them twice?
Medicine seems unlikely to be an efficient addition at the moment. I think we'd want to wait until Dreamwalking finishes, at least.

Socialize should hopefully be efficient, if we can count more time towards our training schedule that way. It'll require solver enhancements to account for tutoring restrictions, though.
The tentative next training plan I had adds Socialize and Telekinesis for Amu.

I assume that no matter what else we choose, we will want Telekinesis in the next round of training in order to trigger the Level 4 event. And despite the QM promising 2 months of downtime, I'm anticipating it will take 1 month to resolve whatever problems that throws up.

As long as we can get Illusion to 2 in that time, I'll be satisfied. Luckily, that seems to be achievable no matter what prioritization gets used.

That's going to set back the level in Integrity, though probably less than it should since the whole 0.5 sleep slot should go to Integrity once Dreamwalking is complete, guaranteeing us half an hour per day in it no matter how much the solver trims the daytime/evening hours allocated to it.

I was assuming Socialize would open up extra hours in school, but since the rationale behind locking the current school training time to 1 was "Amu must pay attention to teachers" I don't think it will, if it somehow does it probably won't be more than 30 minutes. Teachers don't like students chatting while they lecture either, even less than reading material not in scope of the lesson.
 
With the current training setup, I don't think "Prefer Dreamwalking" actually does anything, at least unless you set the preference so high the solver stops trying to overlap the training.
That's correct. For some of those I set it to 3,000 times more preferred, but the total benefit was minuscule. Which is why-
The output for "Prefer Integrity" and "Prefer Dreamwalking" are exactly the same, looks like you copied one of them twice?
Nope, that's the correct output. There's no benefit to preferring one over the other, except that if you go all-in on Integrity you'll get it one day sooner—at the cost of getting Dreamwalking five days later.

Fits within the 2 month 'limit' too, and we have used Lore literally never (publicly, anyway) before so it should be fine?
I'll rarely if ever roll on Lore. It might be necessary for a crafting project, if you do those, but generally the impact is purely narrative. It will obviously affect how much Amu knows about the world.

Baughn, can I assume the required software to play around with the code here is mapLit, good_lp and Cargo, or are there other things too?
Yes. 'cargo run' should work fine.

Prioritizing Lore would be more a matter of simplifying future training plans. Our training performance takes a significant dip after Dreamwalking finishes, as our highest overlap bonuses are all tied to Dreamwalking. At the very least, we'd want to change our stunt at that point. If Dreamwalking and Lore finish within a day of each other, we don't have to re-optimize as many times.
This doesn't handle fractional ranks, and the call site doesn't adjust for fractional ranks either. That's why Lore is taking so long, and why the solver outputs list a total ROI of 240 instead of 216.
Fixed. As to training efficiency, I would update the solver to handle training of more than one rank if anyone votes for it. Or we might just have another vote on 11-07.

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-22: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
2009-11-27: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-30: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
Total ROI: 216.00, ROI/day: 4.80
Total Wasted Time: 6.69 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.15 hours

Since next (, next, next) round we are likely to eventually commit to training Lore 1.5 to Lore 2, and the sanity checks for training where both start and end can be fractional are significantly more complicated
I fixed the sanity checks. The remaining limitation is basically just because cost-per-fractional-rank increases sharply at each integer.
 
Nope, that's the correct output. There's no benefit to preferring one over the other, except that if you go all-in on Integrity you'll get it one day sooner—at the cost of getting Dreamwalking five days later.
Are we allowed to prefer Illusion?

Behind Integrity, that's the next-most critical skill on the list to train. Given the solver apparently refuses to dump the full 2 hours into Integrity every day, it's simply not going to complete in 1 month. And I don't trust we are effectively going to get more time than that to train upon triggering the Level 4 event, before the next arc comes along.
 
Are we allowed to prefer Illusion?

Behind Integrity, that's the next-most critical skill on the list to train. Given the solver apparently refuses to dump the full 2 hours into Integrity every day, it's simply not going to complete in 1 month. And I don't trust we are effectively going to get more time than that to train upon triggering the Level 4 event, before the next arc comes along.
Training Integrity to level 3 requires a cumulative 96 hours of training. At 2 hours per day, that'd take a month and a half, less bonuses... I'm not sure what makes you think it isn't already doing that.

But sure, you can prefer Illusion. It ends up looking like this:

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-02: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-15: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
2009-12-11: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
Total ROI: 216.00, ROI/day: 3.86
Total Wasted Time: 27.80 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.50 hours

...which happens because, once illusion is fully trained, it no longer overlaps with anything. I should probably fix that inability to ask for more than one rank at a time, but I'll do that after finishing this chapter.
 
Nope, that's the correct output. There's no benefit to preferring one over the other, except that if you go all-in on Integrity you'll get it one day sooner—at the cost of getting Dreamwalking five days later.
The output you're describing as "all-in on Integrity" is exactly the same as the "Prefer Dreamwalking" output. This is a little surprising.

One thing I'm seeing here that I'm not sure is intended is, if you spend 2 hours on overlapped Integrity/Dreamwalking training, that provides 1.25 hours toward Integrity progress, but only counts as 1 hour toward the safety limit, rather than 1.25 hours or 2 hours. This means that setting an all-in Integrity config still tries to get a lot of overlapped training, as a way to work around the safety limit. This is also why we're seeing Integrity finish in less than 48 days.

2009-10-17: Chapter 2.1
2009-11-07: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Dreamwalking
2009-11-22: Amu has reached target rank of 1.5 for Lore
2009-11-27: Amu has reached target rank of 2 for Illusion
2009-11-30: Amu has reached target rank of 3 for Integrity
Total ROI: 216.00, ROI/day: 4.80
Total Wasted Time: 6.69 hours, Wasted Time/day: 0.15 hours
What target config was this run with?
 
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Training Integrity to level 3 requires a cumulative 96 hours of training. At 2 hours per day, that'd take a month and a half, less bonuses... I'm not sure what makes you think it isn't already doing that.
Ah, forgot it took 96 hours, was thinking it was going to take 48 like all the others (in which case it would finish in 24 days if it was actually doing 2 hours every day).

I feel like despite the total "Wasted Hours" apparently being higher on that plan, the Illusion-preferred schedule is actually the better choice since we are probably going to change up our training schedule once Dreamwalking completes on November 7.

Lore isn't a major priority and taking 1.5 months at minimum means Integrity seems unlikely to finish before the next arc anyway if we are triggering the Level 4 event.
 
The output you're describing as "all-in on Integrity" is exactly the same as the "Prefer Dreamwalking" output. This is a little surprising.

One thing I'm seeing here that I'm not sure is intended is, if you spend 2 hours on overlapped Integrity/Dreamwalking training, that provides 1.25 hours toward Integrity progress, but only counts as 1 hour toward the safety limit, rather than 1.25 hours or 2 hours. This means that setting an all-in Integrity config still tries to get a lot of overlapped training, as a way to work around the safety limit. This is also why we're seeing Integrity finish in less than 48 days.

What target config was this run with?
Should be the one that's checked in. Which is balanced, but with a preference for integrity where that doesn't affect total ROI.

And yes, computing the safety limits pre-bonus is intended.

"Wasted hours" is mostly a measure of solver limitations. If you vote for a set of preferences that produces a large number, then I'll try to improve the solver to fix it. The solver basically stands in for Amu's reasoning on the subject, so it needs to be fairly clever. ;)
 
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I'll rarely if ever roll on Lore. It might be necessary for a crafting project, if you do those, but generally the impact is purely narrative. It will obviously affect how much Amu knows about the world.
It seems unlikely that we have crafting projects actually able to help for the upcoming scenarios, so do we have any uses for Lore 3 other than Chaos Repelling Pattern?

===

I wonder what the thread thinks Utau should train?
(Talking about Hikaru and Ami training is currently pointless given their low or zero amounts of personal arc XP and our unknown amounts of general XP.
Likewise, getting Miki to train Hikaru/Ami in Integrity is currently impossible so)

I want Utau to train Pyroglyphics and RC myself, the former because it's cool and the only skill she has 0 dots in (and because it ties in with her already established skills very well), and the latter because it's an very good Investigation aide if she knows what she is doing.

Maybe Utau should ask Naoto for Investigation training too, if we agree to the interview?
 
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