Sartier Quest: A Tale of Song, Gods, and Trouble (CK2-Let's Go Hunt Gods, SV!)

Hmm, @Macchiato is there any advantage to Harper Archers over Harper Longbows?
Cheaper up front cost, doesn't suffer from Longbows +1 turn training duration. They use light armour instead of skirmish armour, so they're a little more oriented to survivability over killing power, but neither of them should be entering melee without dire need.

In battle Longbows have extra range and don't suffer penalties against armour.
 
That's... at lot of money you're burning @Spectrum, are you sure you want to spend 60,000g on hiring costs?

I was under the impression we agreed that we were going to be doing huge infrastructure investment next turn? So we would presumably want whatever we could get our hands on.
I'm content saving money this turn because if I get my way, I'd spend that amount next turn anyway on an infrastructure project and then troop recruitment. Anywhere from 10-20k on infrastructure depending on project, 23.5k on Longbows (potentially x2!), 12k on Inner Guard, etc.
Income per turn is 50k. My winning plan spent only 4k. Take the 2 turns together for 100k across both turns. Spending 59k+4k for this turn leaves 37k~ for next turn without deficit spending. Infrastructure will eat up the bulk of that but if we do the recruitment now, everything kicks in a turn earlier and I wouldn't be saying we would do more recruitment next turn anyway.

If we were being really cost conscious I can see an argument for cutting out the minor house recruitments, but Tellar's troop numbers itself are *sad*. We've got roughly equivalent Standing forces to Carlise and a lot less Militia and far less Standing forces and a lot less Militia than Vincennes. Hell, we only provide a little more troops than Raleigh and they're poor as shit.

edit: Incidentally, though, remember what I had clarified:
Also, what happened to the fines levied on Vincennes and Dale, into whose treasury did that go?
It goes into your own coffers, but it starts Turn 3 and goes on to Turn 6.
[ ] - Significant - This feud is a very tricky matter and getting to the right solution will require some very delicate tuning. But there must be significance in the punishment levied. [Costs 1 Influence - Demand arrest and deliver of Arnold Vincennes, Vincennes heir claimed as hostage, 50,000g Vincennes fine, 16,000g Anzios fine payable over 4 turns, -2 Vincennes Influence for 4 turns, House reactions not guaranteed and will require Diplomacy tests to finesse]
[ ] - Significant - Blind eyes are turned to many things in Sartier, but never the actions of Spellknights. And when they fall short of their ideals, repercussions must follow. [Costs 1 Influence - 10,000g Dale fine, hostages claimed from Dale, -4 Chivalry for Lana Antilles, Dale accepts a multi-House force on its side of the border]
So there's money incoming.
 
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Income per turn is 50k. My winning plan spent only 4k. Take the 2 turns together for 100k across both turns. Spending 59k+4k for this turn leaves 37k~ for next turn without deficit spending. Infrastructure will eat up the bulk of that but if we do the recruitment now, everything kicks in a turn earlier and I wouldn't be saying we would do more recruitment next turn anyway.
A) Income per turn is closer to 40k.
B) Getting the recruitment done earlier only means that the upkeep costs start earlier, in this case before we have a sustainable income track.
C) We'll easily need more than 37k for next turn if we're investing wholesale in infrastructure. The bridge alone is 20k up front and 5k a turn. And Oeineros has stated he's rebalancing the costs for the turn, we're not going to get a turn that cheap again.
 
A) Income per turn is closer to 40k.
B) Getting the recruitment done earlier only means that the upkeep costs start earlier, in this case before we have a sustainable income track.
C) We'll easily need more than 37k for next turn if we're investing wholesale in infrastructure. The bridge alone is 20k up front and 5k a turn. And Oeineros has stated he's rebalancing the costs for the turn, we're not going to get a turn that cheap again.
A) Vagaries of seasons, perhaps, but the front page data sheet lists Tellar income at 50k.
B) And? We're not building forces for the sake of building them, we're building them because they legitimately may be needed, at minimum as a show of force.
C) I certainly didn't say wholesale. There's no compelling reason yet produced to go double infrastructure instead of doing one project and then continuing to research. And there's other factors in play here for what the next turn may look like if we're talking about what Oneiros might do.
D) Again, fine income incoming, since you ignored that.
 
[X] Plan FriedIce

I'd prefer my plan with root added, but I ain't up to trying to argue people around to it and this is an acceptable alternate to me.

EDIT: changed my mind! Spectrum instead of FriedIce

DOUBLE EDIT: changed back
 
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A) Vagaries of seasons, perhaps, but the front page data sheet lists Tellar income at 50k.
B) And? We're not building forces for the sake of building them, we're building them because they legitimately may be needed, at minimum as a show of force.
C) I certainly didn't say wholesale. There's no compelling reason yet produced to go double infrastructure instead of doing one project and then continuing to research. And there's other factors in play here for what the next turn may look like if we're talking about what Oneiros might do.
D) Again, fine income incoming, since you ignored that.
A) I remember us getting far less last season. But yes, possibly the vagaries of seasons, yes.
B) Honestly, I'm not sold on the idea that we're going to need them in the near future. Our current forces are likely good enough to fend off anything less than a Teuvian invasion (which isn't on the immediate horizon) or a full scale civil war (which we appear to have averted). We should absolutely increase our troop numbers, but its not some sort of urgent necessity.
C) When I say 'going wholesale into infrastructure' I mean investing in one of the big projects in addition to whatever else we end up doing next turn.
D) I have... issues with us turning around and spending the fine income. Remember, how we use it is going to send a message to the other Houses. I'm inclined for us to add it to the bank account to save for a rainy day, or some big project (provided its been a few turns since we collected the fine incomes; 4-5 should suffice).
 
A) I remember us getting far less last season. But yes, possibly the vagaries of seasons, yes.
B) Honestly, I'm not sold on the idea that we're going to need them in the near future. Our current forces are likely good enough to fend off anything less than a Teuvian invasion (which isn't on the immediate horizon) or a full scale civil war (which we appear to have averted). We should absolutely increase our troop numbers, but its not some sort of urgent necessity.
C) When I say 'going wholesale into infrastructure' I mean investing in one of the big projects in addition to whatever else we end up doing next turn.
D) I have... issues with us turning around and spending the fine income. Remember, how we use it is going to send a message to the other Houses. I'm inclined for us to add it to the bank account to save for a rainy day, or some big project (provided its been a few turns since we collected the fine incomes; 4-5 should suffice).
B) One of the things that I've been thinking about more is that while we do need and want to build up the rest of Sartier, Oneiros warned us that doing so too much without securing our own power would equally make us vulnerable to coup attempts. Yes, relations will serve to counterbalance that, but if either militarily or economically Greater Tellar itself falls too far behind either Sonissimmo or Capo or Tellar to its own Major Houses, there could be problems. I intend to hedge against that when we can.

Also, neglecting the military build-up now while we're in peace time will hurt us badly if and when there's an intelligence breakdown and we're suddenly thrust into conflict. Remember, we go to war with the army we have, not the one we want, so let's make sure that at such a time what we want is what we have, no?
C+D) True, but there may not be a hugely compelling case to spend on anything else, if we want to look at prior turn expenditures. 20k on the bridge leaves 17k to play with, or perhaps 7-10k at worst case. There could conceivably just be not anything else we really need to buy. We can flavor the fine income being spent on infrastructure projects as well that help everyone eventually (the project that helps out everyone on the river as a competing option to the bridge, for example). Perhaps we have to put off starting up another Magic research project for another turn or slightly deficit spend to do so, that's probably okay.
 
Also, neglecting the military build-up now while we're in peace time will hurt us badly if and when there's an intelligence breakdown and we're suddenly thrust into conflict. Remember, we go to war with the army we have, not the one we want, so let's make sure that at such a time what we want is what we have, no?

Ah, you have just bought yourself a vote. This jives too well with my observations of history, eg America's history of significantly weakening it's standing military (because there's no war yo, so we don't need to waste money on soldiers!) and then immediately being attacked (to their surprise, their soldiers were why there was no war. No, most people don't recognize that) vs the Swiss being basically a meme for neutrality and peace with something silly like 90+% of the population at least in the reserves.

Yeah, I'd rather be the guys with a big army that never gets into fights than the guys going "no war, so we need no army, oh god, why are people attacking us, what do they mean by 'easy target', why????"
 
eg America's history of significantly weakening it's standing military (because there's no war yo, so we don't need to waste money on soldiers!) and then immediately being attacked (to their surprise, their soldiers were why there was no war.
When. When did this actually happen? Like I can only think of one case where America has been attacked in a war, and that's WWII which doesn't count for other reasons.

Raising that number of troops, most of which are militia, is both incredibly expensive and counts us out of being able to go after Arnold Vincennes. If you think that raising more troops, which will be a constant drain on our already overtaxed treasury, is worth letting a noted Teuvian agent who worked at the heart of our nation for years go free then you're welcome to vote that way. I happen to believe its not.

We absolutely should fill out our professional and semi-professional slots, yes, but its not the immediate priority that hunting down Arnold Vincennes and killing him dead is. It can, simply, wait a turn or two until we have an influence going spare because, simply, if our vassals were going to revolt they would have done it last turn when we were new in office and hadn't pacified some of them yet. We're healing even more issues this turn with Sonissimmo and Capo aren't in any fit state to rebel against our rule given what they're dealing with in terms of Teuvian infestation.

Not to mention I'd rather do all the recruiting in one action for purposes of influence efficiency. And having us purchase militia regiments for our minor houses is a huge waste of money, instead we should just instruct them to do it themselves whilst creating the infrastructure improvements to allow them to pay for it themselves.
 
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When. When did this actually happen? Like I can only think of one case where America hasn't started whatever war it ended up in, and that's WWII which doesn't count for other reasons.

Gods, I'm too fried today to remember most of it. My recollection is that the 9/11 attacks were at a time America was demilitarizing, again, and I'm pretty sure there were other examples but I just can't remember of the top of my head and don't have the time or focus to look it up...

I need to double check the plans, in any event, make sure that I'm voting for the one that has more of what I want...

EDIT: Changing my vote back, I agree, having Arnold alive any longer than the shortest we can create is bad news.
 
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Gods, I'm too fried today to remember most of it. My recollection is that the 9/11 attacks were at a time America was demilitarizing, again, and I'm pretty sure there were other examples but I just can't remember of the top of my head and don't have the time or focus to look it up...
I'm happy that you've changed your vote back, and I mean no offence but 9/11 wasn't going to be stopped by American military power, even if the USA was demilitarising at the time. 9/11 was caused because the CIA dropped the ball on the threat of Islamic terrorism. Another aircraft carrier wouldn't have stopped 9/11, the CIA not sucking would have.
 
I'm not gonna say any further beyond the last point that we don't really know if a more militarily powerful America would've been attacked in an alternate history or not (social and political stuff is complicated, it's possible that being more militarized would've caused a different target to be picked. It's also possible that some weird knock off chain would happen revolving around increased success of Burger King or something. Or it might be that all that and more does nothing or makes things worse, who knows?), and that more military spending arguably includes things like more intelligence spending. Not generally comfortable talking about 9/11 over much cause frankly I'm not that invested in it and that can offend people, given some of my resultant attitudes.

EDIT: and also that to continue would be getting off-topic, for that matter.
 
I'm going to be putting some time into the first world tutorial while I wait for voting to wind up and the rest. Last chance to put forward requests for first topic covered, otherwise I'll go with what I've already got in mind.
 
Hmm.
[ ][ARNOLD] ...putting together a force of assassins who will hunt the rat down. Hamid has sent out our deadly agents to put down this villain. [1 Influence Cost, 4,000g]
[ ][ARNOLD] ...issuing a substantial Bounty for him, dead or alive, to persuade others to pick up the trail. [0 Influence, sets aside 6,000g]
[ ][ARNOLD] ...leave a Warrant for his Arrest. He'll never be able to return home. [0 Influence, 0g]
Of the set, I favour issuing a bounty for Arnold. I do want him dead, but consider that just this turn we've seen the power of chivalry, and how seriously our lords take it. These relationships are reciprocal; it is unreasonable folly to expect even chivalrous lords to consider us as warranting good behaviour if we do not act chivalrously in turn. Unless Sartier's code of chivalry is unusually lenient on the topic of hired killers (@OneirosTheWriter, @Macchiato?), I doubt hiring assassins would be seen as the actions of a noble lord.
[ ][SANCTION] ...letting the current punishment stand, rather than further cripple an important vassal. [0 Influence Cost, -1 Relation to House Dale]
[ ][SANCTION] Sanction House Vincennes for failing to stop him from from fleeing [0 Influence Cost, -1 Relations with Vincennes, Place ban on further recruitment or replenishment of forces]
[ ][SANCTION] Offer to Waive Sanctions in exchange for Mezzo stepping down [2 Influence Cost, -4 Relations with Vincennes, -1 with other Vassals, triggers a Succession in House Vincennes]
I definitely agree with placing a ban on Vincienne recruitment. Something that was pointed out to me is that Vinciennes is something of a military powerhouse among our minor houses, and considering their troublemaker status, that makes me nervous.
[ ][LANA] Join a Khironex attack on a makeshift pirate camp. When Alice docked in Billfarthing she warned you that a pirate base has been newly founded on a small island in the seas east of Tellar. Alice is open to joining your fleets with her Clan fleet to wipe it out before it becomes a problem. [+1 Relations with Khironex, joint Sartier-Khironex attack on Tranquility forward base next turn]
[ ][LANA] Personally join the hunt for Arnold Vincennes, to drag him out of his Renmi hiding hold. Her Exchequer will take over her duties with the Marshall's help, and they should be able to hold the fort for now. It puts a very potent force on Arnold's tail. [Lana departs Dale and does not return until Arnold is dealt with]
[ ][LANA] When next Tellar goes into battle, Lana is honour-bound to bring her Spellknights and leads the charge. [Requires a certain amount of lead-time to effect]
Khironex seems the obvious choice here. Having friends is good, wrecking the pirates stuff is good, especially when it's on our borders.

As yet I have no substantial opinions on the other options, so I will provisionally vote for,
[X] Plan Spectrum
but as of yet I don't have a clear idea of all the plans that have been put together so far. Can somebody provide links, please?
 
As yet I have no substantial opinions on the other options, so I will provisionally vote for,
[X] Plan Spectrum
but as of yet I don't have a clear idea of all the plans that have been put together so far. Can somebody provide links, please?
I believe the only two codified plans this turn are mine and Spectrum's

The main (only?) difference between them is that Spectrum's going all out on the recruitment options this turn whilst I'm opting to invest that influence in killing Arnold Vincennes dead. We might also have different secretary choices, I'm not sure.

I think @veekie wrote one as well? But these so far are the only ones who've gotten more than one vote.
 
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Mm, the gold cost of Spectrum's plan makes me wince, but on the other hand I worry about the potential hit to our chivalry if we send out knives in the dark.
 
Honestly, if Oeineros and Macchiato come back and say that sending out knives in the dark will hurt our chivalry then I'll likely seriously consider changing that option. I'm operating under the assumption that whilst sending out knives in the dark aren't a very chivalrous thing to do it'll be acceptable against someone who's both a confirmed traitor to the state and a Teuvian agent.
 
I'm just going to give you the short answer because @Macchiato is tied up at the moment so giving an Official answer is tricky.

Yes, sending assassins is a dread-incurring sort of action. However, a) Antonia is already a Dread 4 character and this falls under her purvey rather than Chivalry 6 Andres or Chivalry 4 Evelyn, so it insulates you, and b) you aren't going to be advertising the fact that you're sending people over with murder on their minds.

Lana Antilles chasing Arnold doesn't count as assassination because she's publicly announcing she's on a quest to bring him to justice, she's been personally injured so there's a clear matter of vengeance, and they're both noble, so it is considered in a different frame.

We'll see what we can do as far as explaining Sartieran concepts of chivalry in broader terms later. Big takeaway, though, is that Chivalry is not an easy path to follow, so those who do it well are lauded, but while it is recognised that no one is perfect and indiscretions may be excused, a large breach leads to being reviled. It is one thing to not follow Chivalry, but quite another to espouse it and then turn your back on it.

Edit: When you invest so much into walking the path, to fall off it badly is A Big Deal for the person who has fallen off the path, hence why Lana went to the trouble of begging for a chance at risking her neck for redemption, rather than even simply asking to be pardoned.

Edit 2: And yes, Arnold used to be Chivalrous, and then he went completely off the rails, lost his chivalry, and turned traitor so that also helps. Sending an assassin against a high Chivalry character is a big no-no, though. The turn options at the moment don't really convey the chivalry/dread thing well enough at the moment, but we'll look at that when we rebalance the costs.
 
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We absolutely should fill out our professional and semi-professional slots, yes, but its not the immediate priority that hunting down Arnold Vincennes and killing him dead is.
EDIT: Changing my vote back, I agree, having Arnold alive any longer than the shortest we can create is bad news.
Respectfully, this just looks like fear mongering to me. I have addressed your point upthread and have yet to see a rebuttal to it.

What, precisely, do you fear from Arnold Vincennes that mandates killing him immediately -and- why do you believe that sending assassins to do it is significantly more likely to succeed than putting a bounty on his head?

I have asserted that he has been a traitor for a nontrivial amount of time and as such will have already leaked sufficient damaging information and at this point will have been debriefed of presumably most of anything else valuable on his arrival in Teuv. At this point I don't actually think there's much more that you can stop unless the debrief is taking an unusual amount of time or he is dragging the process out--in which case he is paradoxically much more likely to be protected from assassination or bounty hunters anyway so you're just throwing the Influence point and the assassins away.

Raising that number of troops, most of which are militia, is both incredibly expensive and counts us out of being able to go after Arnold Vincennes. If you think that raising more troops, which will be a constant drain on our already overtaxed treasury, is worth letting a noted Teuvian agent who worked at the heart of our nation for years go free then you're welcome to vote that way. I happen to believe its not.

We absolutely should fill out our professional and semi-professional slots, yes, but its not the immediate priority that hunting down Arnold Vincennes and killing him dead is. It can, simply, wait a turn or two until we have an influence going spare because, simply, if our vassals were going to revolt they would have done it last turn when we were new in office and hadn't pacified some of them yet. We're healing even more issues this turn with Sonissimmo and Capo aren't in any fit state to rebel against our rule given what they're dealing with in terms of Teuvian infestation.

Not to mention I'd rather do all the recruiting in one action for purposes of influence efficiency. And having us purchase militia regiments for our minor houses is a huge waste of money, instead we should just instruct them to do it themselves whilst creating the infrastructure improvements to allow them to pay for it themselves.
We can't afford to do all of the recruiting in one action and we basically won't be able to without strict econing for multiple turns yet. If we were capable of strict econing, then there's nothing stopping my plan as is. That said, your position here is hyperbole either for the sake of argument or because you haven't looked at the numbers closely enough. All of the militia recruitments combined give 5 regiments for the cost of one professional one at something like 1/3rd of the upkeep. And outside of special modifiers or there being too many of them to fight together, they should probably utterly smash that one single one if it came down to a straight fight. If anything there is a compelling case for spamming Militia for a rainy day after we get our logistics situation more straightened out but I'll leave that one alone. Either way, they're dirt cheap if we don't need to use them--and since you're arguing that we don't, I don't see the problem here. (And if we did, obviously we'd be glad to have them.)

I'm also unsure if you looked at the actual minor house economic numbers here but I will tell you that they're not good and they're not going to magically get better within any reasonable time table such that telling them to recruit on their own won't bankrupt them. Having to recruit a Longbow Militia unit right now on their own would literally bankrupt them. Yes, they will see economic improvements down the line, no it's still not going to be enough to really let them do it on their own. I refuse to compromise by saying that we're just going to do recruitment multiple turns down the line, that is a classic and often fatal error. You do not have the luxury to sit around and solely tech or econ and not build units, you deserve and will get hit in the face for doing that. As an example, the dock facilities will take 5 turns to complete, a time period that you apparently propose to not have them build units at all?

Beyond that, I remind you of the instructions given for regiment recruitment:
[You can also force recruitment on your six Minor Houses by paying 50% of the cost, with the other 50% being picked up by the Minor Houses]
It was never even mentioned as a valid action to tell minor houses to recruit solely on their own, nor is it likely to be one without some kind of Reputation hit.

Lastly, if we spend in the Influence now on this, since I'm also arguing against the assassination anyway, and it saves the Influence point next turn on this recruitment *anyway*, when we'll certainly run into more things to expend Influence on.

As for our vassals, Vincennes certainly isn't pleased with us. All it takes is Carlisle not being sufficiently happy with us and the two of them have a good shot at rolling over Raleigh and Tellar together, or at least making it a close thing. That's unacceptable. Soft power is useful for keeping them in line to make them not inclined to want to do it but it's inferior to hard power making it so even if they decide to, they lose anyway. And hell, even Raleigh isn't all that happy with us after the losses they took skirmishing with Sonissimmo.
 
Okay, just looking through that for things that need QM clarification...

It was never even mentioned as a valid action to tell minor houses to recruit solely on their own, nor is it likely to be one without some kind of Reputation hit.

If you want to force Minor Houses to recruit on their own, I would allow, but as Spectrum suggests, there is a relations hit that will be incurred. Minor Houses pass a very large chunk of their revenue up the chain, and they'll put their skin in the game when you tell them to haul ass. The quid pro quo for that is supposed to be that you watch their back and help them with big ticket items such as recruitment or infrastructure (be good stewards of the commons, in short).

Different province's Minor Houses earn at different rates, and there's actually a freaking slew of factors involved, few of which are properly understood by Tellar. However, you do know that yours are about middle of the road. It's something of a curse and a blessing. On the downside, they're reliant on you. On the upside, they're reliant on you. ;)

By the way...

Vote Will Close 12 Noon Australian Western Standard Time, Midnight US EST
 
Yeah, I'd rather be the guys with a big army that never gets into fights than the guys going "no war, so we need no army, oh god, why are people attacking us, what do they mean by 'easy target', why????"
Forgot to respond to this. So, America's actually the wrong parallel here. Let me paint the picture and perhaps see where I'm going instead.

Sartier is an island nation that won a war decades ago against a nation making a world conquest play on the nearest largest landmass. Unfortunately, right now they're having a bit of strife and economic problems just as war is starting to creep on the horizon from the same old threat that is all but certain to come for them again.

Does that sound familiar? It should. Do you want to be Britain in the 1930s and have your leader go down in history as an appeaser because they likely well understood that their country wasn't vaguely in a position militarily to contest things for years? We apparently don't even have a strong enough Navy to entirely defeat landings when it comes down to it.
 
Sartier is an island nation that won a war decades ago against a nation making a world conquest play on the nearest largest landmass.
Quick correction. Teuv wasn't doing world conquest on the nearest largest landmass, they were engaging in a proper global conquest. Other countries like Khironex and Renmi are separate landmasses not attached to Teuv, meaning they had to cross ocean to attack and conquer. As far as we've designed it, it's sort of a world of island continents? Ish?

This hasn't been properly outlined and we don't have a map so it's understandable you wouldn't have known this.
 
Okay, purely on the topic of the balance of power and not endorsing anyone's plan. If you were to ask Antonia Tellar what she thinks about a potential threat from Vincennes, her response would be along the lines of:

"Raleigh and Carlisle won't want to publicly tie themselves to Vincennes over Tellar after this last set of fiascoes. And, sure, Vincennes has an edge in standing numbers at the moment, but if you look at the map, Harper is very defensible, and the Barossa Citadel would be a pain in the ass to besiege. Not to mention Castle Mastiff just north of Harper, is a fortress equal to that protecting Gambier or Dyelin. And we also have access to Rita and Monica, the two most powerful Songweavers in Sartier. Plus we have family ties to Capo, who would not welcome Greater Harper becoming Greater Marlingtay. I mean, for one thing it'd be a stupid fucking name."

You are a Great House, and you are powerful, more powerful than Vincennes, in spite of the numbers. You can always do with more numbers, but you aren't in danger of being turned on by Vincennes. Rule of thumb is: you can piss off most of your vassals, you just can't piss off all of your vassals.
 
You are a Great House, and you are powerful, more powerful than Vincennes, in spite of the numbers. You can always do with more numbers, but you aren't in danger of being turned on by Vincennes. Rule of thumb is: you can piss off most of your vassals, you just can't piss off all of your vassals.
Fair. However, I do want to comment that I was comparing the threat from Tellar only having one loyal house vs two disloyal houses--at which point the balance of basic military power appears vaguely even to me (leaving aside comparisons of Songweavers and such which are less easy to decide). I do not dispute at all that we're not in danger of being turned on by Vincennes as the primary. But perhaps things could reverse down the line so someone wants to make it Greater Gambier. Now, this is also a stupid fucking name, but less so than Marlingtay.

I've no idea how Capo would feel about that particular action instead of Vincennes trying to take over. I mean, as has been speculated in the past, perhaps they're more than willing to let Tellar to screw up so it leaves them as the default leading Symphony?

Anyway, my point is that Vincennes is a mess and seems likely to continue to be a mess, so if somehow our hand is forced or anything else happens that pisses off one of the other two houses, I'd prefer it to not suddenly be attractive for them to consider a coup of their own.
 
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