In America, faith healing ceremonies are pretty commonplace, yes. The probability of detection would mostly depend on a) the probability of success of modern medicine alone, and b) how dramatic the recovery was. If we're talking something like "only 10% of people hospitalized ever regain full mobility" and/or "average recovery time of two weeks was shortened to a day for these two patients", then someone's definitely going to take notice, even in the US. If most people recover fully, and do so relatively quickly, it's not going to be an issue ...but it's also not going to be a huge morale boost.
But none of that matters, because we're
not in America.
... ordinary detective work?
I'll grant you the water contamination bit, though; that slipped my mind.
a) America is, by and large,
not a nation of financially secure people. More generally, the inverse correlations between religiosity and urbanity*, religiosity and per-capita GDP, and religiosity and income stability are all well-known and well-established; so too is the US's position as a notable outlier amongst the nations of the world in the second category.
* In the sense of "urban", rather than "urbane".
b) I was not able to find any
inconclusive statistics. All the ones I saw were quite clear on what they measured. I am curious what you mean by that.
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on that last bit. I have been able to find
no evidence of faith healing being a widely accepted and practiced Shinto tradition at any time after the Meiji Restoration. (I am not a resident or citizen of Japan, just a geek who researches obscure things for fun; but on that basis alone I would still expect to have come into contact with Japanese faith-healing practices if they were widespread. The closest thing I can think of is Shinto-style exorcisms, and I am not aware of anyone taking those seriously outside of blatantly fantastic fiction.)
I'll be addressing what you claim as provided citations below.
... a question to the females in the audience, if we have one. Can I reasonably apply the term "mansplaining" to this paragraph?
I'm at a loss as to how you could possibly think, given the post to which you were replying, that there was anything in here that I wasn't aware of. I can understand setting it out for the sake of clarity, but your patronizing tone is not at all appreciated.
Largely, no... but they're also not very common and, especially in the case of "Folk Shinto", their membership is strongly skewed rurally. Indeed, "Folk Shinto" isn't even a religion in the usual sense; it would reasonably be better translated "folk Shinto", as it refers to uninstitutionalized practices and superstitions typically found only in very rural Japan.
Okay, there are a couple of things wrong here.
1)
I have no idea where you're getting 2.5 million from That 2.5 million figure in Britannica is from 1980, and as such is
very out of date. Wikipedia cites the
2002 statistics for a figure of 1.75 million (page 83/PDF p.97, row #1, last data column), and the official
2012 statistics give 1.2 million (page 87/PDF p.101, row #1, last data column). This is quite a precipitous fall! I suspect practitioners of Tenrikyo are disproportionately elderly, but I cannot provide statistics and am not entirely sure where to look for them.
For comparison, it's far more common to claim Buddhism as one's religion than Tenrikyo: the Jōdo Shinshū sect alone comes in at 6.9 million (the Heisei 24 report again, page 73/PDF p. 87, row #5, last column). Some of that may simply be due to a custom of registering at Buddhist temples (dating from Edo-era enforcement of such) rather than deep or commonly-practiced faith. (
Here is an explanation of the situation from a Buddhist perspective.)
(The Wikipedia page for
Jōdo Shinshū gives a figure of 20% of Japan as identifying with it, but this is likely incorrect; I calculate the 2012 percentage as 5.4%. Note that, according to the Monbusho report, as of 2012 this is the single most commonly self-ascribed religious sect in Japan.)
2) Tenrikyo
isn't actually a branch of Shinto, either theologically or organizationally speaking. Historically it was categorized as part of "Sect Shinto" (probably due to pre-WWII restrictions on religious practice), and often it's still mistaken for a branch of Shinto, but it hasn't actually been considered part of Shinto in a long time. See
here; the Monbusho Yearly Reports on Religion linked above, which classify Tenrikyo under "other religions" (and have since at least 1995 = Heisei 7);
here, where a self-identified practitioner of Tenrikyo personally denies it; and
here, where Tenrikyo is described as having renounced the connection.
Interestingly,
this thesis by Kazuya Hara (apparently a Shinto apologetic piece, although I've only skimmed it) references Tenrikyo alongside two other sects when describing Sect Shinto:
Hara presents Sect Shinto as admittedly a catch-all term, but specifically describes these three sects
as faith-healing sects.
Exceptio probat regulam. (In particular, searching the rest of the PDF for the word "heal" may also be enlightening.)
3) The Britannica article notes that "[t]he modern sect emphasizes modern medical care" anyway. The fact that it refers to Tenrikyo as being Shinto without further explanation does call Britannica's accuracy here into question, but nonetheless, there it is.
... then you'd be making a poor analogy, from which to draw poor conclusions.
Wow, no. Not at all, not in any way except possibly per-capita numbers. Shrine Shinto is best compared, if anything, to "Christmas and Easter" worshippers: the practice of showing up on major traditional holidays and not bothering with the rest of it. (Relatedly, I have just learned the wonderful term "Poinsettia and Lily Catholic".) However, it makes up the
vast majority of residents of Japan (90+ million), and as such there is no particular stigmatism attached to it.
Sect Shinto, on the other hand, is a catch-all term (as Hara notes); as currently defined by the Monbusho, it has approximately 3.6 million adherents. (The only notably-sized sect appears to be Izumo Oyashiro-kyo, at about 1.2 million; Konkokyo has about 400K, and nothing else breaks 300K.) Considering it as a single monolithic entity is in this context is a poor thing to do; it would be better to analogize to offbeat* Christianity in general. (Although I suspect the groups that are more like mainstream Shinto may well have opinions more like, say,
mainstream Judaism.)
Folk Shinto is basically
this. Calling it a sect feels mildly ridiculous, and certainly doesn't seem helpful in this context. (The Monbusho report scarcely mentions it at all: just a passing note in an introductory paragraph.)
Granting for the sake of argument that Tenrikyo specifically
commonly practices faith healing, it might still seem appropriate to compare them to Mormons based on that and
numbers... but that's overlooking the fact that, in the US, faith healing is far more accepted, and not a clear differentiator between Mormonism and more mainstream Christian sects. A more accurate analogy to a Tenrikyo faith-healing ceremony might be door-to-door missionary work. (On the other hand, if faith healing is no longer particularly common or promoted amongst followers of Tenrikyo, polygamy would be a closer match.)
* Don't read too much into this word; I just couldn't think of a better antonym for "mainstream".
Well, this one I'll grant you.
I'm not sure how you could draw that bolded conclusion from anything you've cited. I think I've addressed the latter part well enough, though.
Look to the beam in your own eye.
I'll grant that, early on, what hostility we would encounter would be due to people being officious as much as suspicious; but, Akihabara notwithstanding, "the nail that sticks up gets hammered down" is still a common proverb in Japan.
What's important, though, is that we would be
remembered, and any doctor aware of the miraculous recoveries of any two of our targets would think to start looking a little deeper. (Three, and it definitely wouldn't stop at "think".)