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Mafio Party

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Pawn Lelouch said:
Oh yeah, that's totally fair but I'm just reading through my PM and telling you what it says. I'm laying things out on the table so people don't try and use it as false evidence against me later. And I will point out that I haven't been counterclaimed at all so we know we don't have another doctor in the game since only mafia has died so far.

And I want to point out that I claimed to say, that while I still don't trust QT I might have been the reason for there being no kill, not Nani jailing him. That's me putting my neck out for another player and trying to potentially stop a mislynch.

If I'm mafia there's no benefit to choosing a role like that to stop the rolecop from being killed, so if I'm mafia then so is QT. And honestly, even if there are only 4 PCs it still wouldn't be worth putting my neck out for my last teammate when it would tie us together in most players' eyes. It'd be too risky.
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That is one of the more major reasons I'm going with Rem and not you.
 
So um hot take time- I don't want us to lynch Rem. Look at what we can do- have Cyri check Rem and me. I think we mentioned this at the beginning of the day. Unless you want to claim that I and LMBF are scum, I'm going to roll NPC regardless of if I'm lying about being a millermason or not, no? So if we do the Cyri scan, we can get a very soft boost to my (and LMBF's) cred, and know whether Rem is BSing us or not. If they're not, Medium is a nifty thing to have. If Cyri thinks they have a better target for tonight, obviously they shouldn't tell us who, it's a different story and I'm fine with Rem as a secondary lynch. But I think it'd prefer joe or especially Pawn ( a doc who has flavor but it doesn't show at night, completely contrary to our jailer's claim? When doc is a super easy scumclaim when it is known there probably isn't one, and gives an escape hatch for Q? Combine with Pawn's play? eeeeeeh to put it mildly)
 
Broken Base said:
( a doc who has flavor but it doesn't show at night, completely contrary to our jailer's claim? When doc is a super easy scumclaim when it is known there probably isn't one, and gives an escape hatch for Q? Combine with Pawn's play? eeeeeeh to put it mildly)
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The thing that stays my hand is doctors are traditionally invisible unless actually healing.

But I think I can get behind a Joebobjoe lynch. He's one of the haziest and least verified of roles right now.

[x] Null Rem

[x] Lynch Joebobjoe
 
Broken Base said:
So um hot take time- I don't want us to lynch Rem. Look at what we can do- have Cyri check Rem and me. I think we mentioned this at the beginning of the day. Unless you want to claim that I and LMBF are scum, I'm going to roll NPC regardless of if I'm lying about being a millermason or not, no? So if we do the Cyri scan, we can get a very soft boost to my (and LMBF's) cred, and know whether Rem is BSing us or not. If they're not, Medium is a nifty thing to have. If Cyri thinks they have a better target for tonight, obviously they shouldn't tell us who, it's a different story and I'm fine with Rem as a secondary lynch. But I think it'd prefer joe or especially Pawn ( a doc who has flavor but it doesn't show at night, completely contrary to our jailer's claim? When doc is a super easy scumclaim when it is known there probably isn't one, and gives an escape hatch for Q? Combine with Pawn's play? eeeeeeh to put it mildly)
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Or, howsabout we swap you and your masonmate?
They don't show up as a miller, right?
 
Nanimani said:
Or, howsabout we swap you and your masonmate?
They don't show up as a miller, right?
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They don't show up as miller as far as I'm aware- oh ok. But I'm not sure where that gets us. We know Rem isn't town, they agree they aren't town. So Cyri's investigation is going to get a different hit regardless of if they're scum or NPC and we're right back where we started.
 
Like, the only NPC claim I remotely trust right now is Derpmind. Who has already been targeted. And thus can't be used to check Rem.

But if we compare Broken Base and Rem we'll be able to pin down whether one or possibly both are lying.
 
Broken Base said:
First of all if you agree in the probability of the event-giver being an anti-town NPC of some sort, that really badly hurts your arguments, I feel. It both causes the balance to become even more unstable and require greater scum power than we currently see, especially once we factor in a rolecop. In addition, as I recall the argument began with you asserting that my claim of a rolecop scumbuddy was incoherent because you need someone to kill, someone to rolecop, someone to do the event. Ignoring the possibility of a cheerleader role, the event-giver being an NPC renders this argument flawed anyway.

In terms of Ellf. You did indeed put Ellf third in a post. Let's see it.

Now my initial assumption was that this entire list was due to Bayesian calculations. Which would indicate that you not only used Bayesian calculations to pick your target D1, but also N1, which I find a bit of stretch given that you inherently have new informaton in the reveal. In addition, your second candidate turning up scum appears to have not affected your reads at all, since Rikimaru being town is completely irrelevant to the Winged Cat reveal. I find that a little strange if your thesis was a lack of information being something that informed the suspicion process. Now Nictis.
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This makes no sense. I explicitly said multiple times that i considered a hostile NPC unlikely. I admit it's possible since it's clearly some hostile party and I don't have a rule doc in front of me, but it's supremely unlikely. I'd give 90+% odds that the day controller is scum, and a cheerleader role is completely irrelevant to this so?

This logic can't even support it's own weight given its assumptions, much less rebut anything.

The winged cat reveal made Rikimaru not scum. It was that simple. After day one, I was easily as confident he was town as I was confident you and Terrabrand were. I did look through who they and archeo talked to and interacted that day, but nothing stood out ( I assume more competant scummates), which meant all of my previous calculations stood, and almost entirely in full.

Given that Q is smart and creative and had a mirror duplicate template in my role, I'm not super compelled by the fact that the claims mesh. And given that I was heavily implying Q was Mario and godfather, framing his claim so that the person we thought was godfather was indeed godfather, thereby shutting the door on the possibility. Consider that paranoid, whatever. The scum cast is a valid point, but we don't know exactly what the criterion for being scum is exactly, as far as I know? The pattern is strange, I admit, but I would argue it could be considered a condemning factor just as much as pro-town one. I freely admit that I have no idea what to make of the Nation's Hero angle, and it's a minor point in Q's favor. I don't find it overly compelling because I don't think overall trying to predict the thematics of the game and what they mean to be that productive.

Okay. So a couple things. The first is I'm going to take a break. I've had an extended 4 page argument with Q, and I think we got nowhere. I wasn't particularly convinced. I don't know about other players. I can't say. And I am exhausted mentally. Last night was the first good night of sleep I had in at least 3 days. My life has been one constant stressor after another. I can't handle arguing with both you and Q simultaneously right now. In addition, Q has 6 votes. It's mid-day, that can change, but I'm working with what I see right now. I want to actually help the town find a second target, but I can't do that while arguing with Q and now you challenging me to a drag-out match. So I will take a break. I need one. And then I'll work on something I think is more productive to helping the town at this juncture than us getting mad at each other.

The second thing I want to say is something that is the next paragraph at the very least (I would obviously say more but I can't prove that) is completely genuine. Regardless of my alignment, role, whatever, this is how I feel. Q, I think you've played a good game. Regardless of if I suspected you, I think you played just fine and that your setup spec was interesting and productive to read. If you're town, it might come in handy later if we do lynch you. I think you're a smart person and a greater arguer- probably better than me. Regardless of where you fall, the way you played this game genuinely did earn you a lot of respect on my end. If your wagon dies I will fight Terra and Nani and you and Nictis if I have to because I genuinely believe you to be scum with almost certainty. But I'm tired of arguments leading to bad blood and bikcering and drama this game. I mentally can't handle any more of that.

Regardless, I'm going to take a break, respond to you (And Nictis if he wishes I guess), and then craft a masterlist on every reason I think you're scum. Feel free to respond to it (Or Nictis or anyone I guess), while I do some other work. If the wagon turns around, I'll do what I can to pull it back. I wish Q wasn't probably scum. I don't like fighting battles I'll probably lose. But I have to try.
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I'd like say that I appreciate the respect here, and there are no hard feelings on my end. I'm well aware that as scum I'm quite good at imitating my town posting style, argument basis, and actions; I don't think you're suspicion of me is unwarranted, just wrong. I hope things improve for you IRL, you've been fun to play with and argue with.
Broken Base said:
I mean, I'm not going to die on the hill of "Q is scummy because there is an objectively correct way to play cop!" While I can potentially concede most of my gripes on this front, I'm... deeply skeptical about Rem, tbh, here is a player that we all think is faking his claim and the character that could check that exact claim out, and stop shade being thrown Rem's way even today, and this could have been avoided if Q had just picked a clearly suspicious person who is clearly suspicious, precisely because of issues with his role/claim. I feel like there is a line between "Objectively correct way to play cop" and "this play... doesn't really seem to make much sense."
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Honestly, I just think it's super odd that you're focusing on Rem. I found his claim vaguely plausible (although as details came in this did decline, like that apparently more severe killing?), and it also wasn't a useful role to us so there wasn't any real pressure to confirm it. I could somewhat understand why a cop would investigate rem, but as an observer them claiming they did that in an analogous position would make me more suspicious, not less.

2. I concede that they can't compare results but I don't think that's the powerful counter you're framing it as to be honest. I could come up with a hypothetical but I don't want to do a hypothetical duel, I feel like you're still presenting the data in a really negative light here. Also I'm not sure why you're framing scum and scum as clear at all. All it demonstrates is that they have the same alignment, not that they're both innocent. You'd have to be a pretty naive player to frame it in those terms, I think. Let's also not forget the framework of the game, where we have a bunch of roles that are super easy to confirm. So you have a bunch of targets that will be confirmed town (or close to it), potentially a confirmed NPC (there could very well be one just for this task) and so on. There are plenty of ways to get fruitful results here. It's worth noting that we're always going to be talking purely in hypotheticals, so I'm not sure either side is going to really "win" out concerning Daisy's power. She could be strong, or she could be weak. I think that given the overall setup and role madness nature, however, she is going to have far greater tendency to be strong than you're letting on, and that has to be compensated for.
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Honestly, I don't see how daisy's ability is really useful except in combination to mine or really excellent playing. Their ability seems perfectly suited for seeing through the miller (ie you), I can confirm Townies for them to compare to, and I can investigate one member of a pair that doesn't match to figure out which if any was town without us wasting 2 days, 2 lynches, and a bunch of daisy's town cred. Like, daisy has no idea which member isn't town, can get lots of false positives from npcs (both in town-npc mismatch, and scum npc mismatch to "confirm" scum as town), and can't repeat or bounce off known town more than once. Without a day 1 as good as ours was, I don't really think this game would be winnable with daisy as the sole cop.
Broken Base said:
I want to know his power. Now. And if it isn't provable, we lynch him soon. Bottom line.

(I'm pushing this really hard. But that's because Q is scum, and if we don't lynch Q today, I know we never will.)

I Grant Daisy is a weak cop.... sort of. I would like you to keep in mind that we also have a jailer, who can function as an investigative role as well as a protective one (as we've seen). So honestly we already have two cops in a matter of speaking, or at the very least 1.5. If the jailer comes out and claims to have protected somebody, free hit. We have a potentially CPU that can confirm themselves to multiple people, thereby giving Daisy a confirmed town to use her powers on, getting at least one sure hit, which can then be built on in the future. We also have masons. These are people Daisy can use her power on, even if just one claims that's another free hit. We have a multivoter, which is an easily confirmable role and absolutely is not a role scum would have. It can also derail late bandwagons that are either clearly lead by scum or are going horribly wrong. Another free hit. We have transporter, which while one of the least easy to confirm roles, isn't impossible either, depending on what roles are out. It can also, depending on how its used, confirm other incidental people's roles, as we saw. Actually I think it could synergize with Peach incredibly well if I recall how the ability works. And so another possible hit. We don't know Derp's power at all (we probably should find out and he really should stop lurking). That could be easy to confirm, though he's an NPC. Another possible hit. Also, though I admit that it's a biiiit of a stretch to say the least... it IS true that a Medium would make perfect sense in this game and is easily confirmable in a situation aside from ours where everything goes wonky. Another possible hit. NPC hits sound incredibly weak, but I can easily see scum claiming NPC as an emergency measure. We also have a Doctor, who is also not a very confirmable role but it's certainly possible. He can protect Daisy regardless, which is a benefit, though the jailer can too.

Daisy both has decently solid methods of protection, and CAN actually get hits with not as much difficulty as you seem to think.

We also have 1.5 cops at least, 1.5 docs, an auto-confirmable role, an easily confirmable role that could be a godsend at deadlines, a redirector which, as we saw, can be kind of broken if it gets lucky. We may have a neutral medium, something that can be very useful to have. We have masons. We're adding an alignment and role cop to that?
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Honestly, I think this is the weakest argument I've seen out of you all day. Daisy is half a cop at best, and It's be generous to rate our jailor as even a quarter. In order to get anything, they have to:
-Have no deaths that night, which given 4 scum is a low chance even if they do successfully identify and target
-Know that the scum didn't decide to target the person they jailed, and the busser didn't get involved, and that the scum wasn't blocked by doctor
-Be unrevealed, as otherwise Mafia can just spend a night without a kill and get a town lynched, for free.

We also know that there's an NPC faction, which is a negative for town, and we've seen at least one strong scum power even after half the cast of scum is dead, so these balancing bits seem off? I'm a confirmed rolecop one way or another, either scum or town, so if you presuppose I'm scum then this game was a hail mary for town from the start saved only by extreme luck of player picks.
We still haven't seen signs of massive scum power. We have the events, which even Q agrees might not strictly be scum and not too much else heavily overwhelming, despite Q's attempts to sell them up. The NPCs seem to hurt the scum more than they help. Heck, see how the scum are kind of getting steamrolled here, and the rolecop has had one clear which was covered by our other cop anyway? I really am not seeing its need to provide balance.
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This is misinterpretation at best. The evidence is enough to basically guarantee that scum is behind the day control.
Broken Base said:
So, like, with all due respect to Q and Nictis, at this point I think this debate is us just kinda screaming at each other and changing no one's mind- obviously I'm not going to convince Q he's scum and Nictis clearly has his read and he's sticking to it, as-is his right. I'm sorry to realize this after tossing a somewhat effort post at you Nictis, but I also kind am operating under a limited timeframe; I'm going to be gone mid-afternoon tomorrow, the day ends tomorrow night, and it's 2 in the morning. I really do want to get some analysis done, and I feel like my arguments have been made clear and if people agree they agree, if they don't they don't, you know?
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See, I sort of get where you're coming from, but i have no idea why you expect this to work. if I'm town, of course I'm going to be fighting regardless to keep my very powerful role in play, if I'm NPC I'm fighting to stay alive and win, and if I'm mafia I'm going to be fighting to keep half our remaining team alive. there's no counterfactual world in which this argument works
Terrabrand said:
The point would be to test Rem's NPC claim and Broken Base's NPC miller claim. If they show up co-aligned they're telling the truth. Or both are scum. Either way. If they show up not co-aligned one is lying.
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Terrabrand said:
Like, the only NPC claim I remotely trust right now is Derpmind. Who has already been targeted. And thus can't be used to check Rem.

But if we compare Broken Base and Rem we'll be able to pin down whether one or possibly both are lying.
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The problem is, what if Daisy bypasses miller and we get a false positive (or negative)?
 
Broken Base said:
Goddamnit LMBF. That was completely and totally freaking unnecessary. I tried to tell you in chat to not claim yet but you feel the need to do it now I guess. Anyway, I'll confirm the claim. Part of the reason why I find Q's claim simply impossible is that we have two mason teams, and that both simply makes the cop's power even more broken and increases overall town power. I genuinely think that both Mason claims are legitimate now; part of the reason I was suspicious of Nictis for admittedly shaky reasons was because with his "Brother" claim I was almost certain that he was claiming Mason, and well, I genuinely didn't believe that there were two of those. I overall changed my mind due to the things that Nani and Terra pointed out, the fact that this is to an extent a role madness game, the fact that I am Miller and my and my partner's role names make us inherently untrustworthy (it's true that if anything the lynch flips have pointed the other way, but that is partially the result of Luigi getting hit fast.), I did think that his Rikimaru scumhunting appeared honest, and so on. It is possible that he's an NPC Mason team or whatever I guess? That would make sense. But even if he's an NPC he isn't who we should be scumhunting today. It's also why I was defending LMBF both through an extended analysis that concluded he was town, and defending him today. Obviously I don't want him lynched. I did vote him back on Day 1, but that was both i didn't trust him to not throw the game for us and claim Mason on D1 or something, and he wasn't responding in our chat (he still isn't very talkative), so my only option was to test him in the thread. He gave me a reason to trust him, and started pleading in the QT, so I backed off.

My flavor is A Father's Bond. I feel a deep connection to him unlike any other. We can chat, know each other to be town, all that good stuff. I suppose as frustrated as I am it doesn't really matter at this point, LMBF was going to have to claim eventually. While thinking about it there isn't too much of an echo in LMBF and I's roles there is a little duality there- LMBF can't get killed during the night, I immediately look suspicious during the night. The un NKable factor might also be an attempt to give a boost to the Mason team given that I have literally no powers other than to look suspicious, and a while mason is useful, there's already another one. Lynching me may seem difficult, but given that I'm going to get cc'd by another mason team, I certainly don't think it's impossible and that may be why things are the way they are. Especially if the other mason comes out and he's unNKable. At the very least I think it's going to sow a lot of doubt and confusion and that would explain the nature of a miller-mason, as unorthodox as I assume it is in this game. (Not that this game doesn't have unorthodox roles, at least to an extent- see Peach and Cyri) You also have to take our inherently suspicious player names into account. That invites a lynch.

As scum I and any buddies would never allow LMBF to claim Mason with me. That'd be fucking crazy and be suicide. Because, you know, someone can check me or LMBF and we both likely end up going down. At the very least I'd be throwing him under the bus right now, and I'm not. If we're an NPC team it might seem to make more sense, but it really doesn't? Like, if I'm an NPC, me claiming to back Derp makes zero sense, especially given that there's somebody else, whose wincon is evidently tied to me, who is going to go down with me. In addition if we're NPCs that logically would mean that we're survivors, I assume? Why would I play this way, so aggressively and openly and actively if I were a survivor? It spits in the face of how I played it last time I was a survivor where I was active but I tried to not rock the boat at all. As a survivor I certainly wouldn't going all-in against another player like this- it draws so much attention to me and makes me heavily vulnerable to a lynch if the other player is town. Heck, why would I bother with the miller claim? That makes not that much sense either. Because honestly millers tend to get lynched eventually, which makes it kind of problematic for a survivor. If I were a survivor right now I would be claiming some valuable power as a boost to stay alive. I'm not. I'm a millermason and that's all there is to it, unfortunately. If there is another NPC role I could be that was simultaneously a Mason with someone, idk what the hell it is. (I've commented in QT to LMBF that it is ridiculously hilarious that Bowser Jr is the immensely broken one, and Bowser is just kinda mundane and if anything holds the team back.)

@Nanimani Does the "offness" of some of my arguments make sense now? I'm literally throwing everything I have and the kitchen sink at Q and Nictis because I genuinely don't see how we could have a cop like we have, 2 masonries, and a rolecop. There is so much potential synergy there and it'd sink the scumteam without just this deep fount of power they just don't seem to have as far as I can tell.
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I'd also like to note that this post was very confusing until I realized QT was Quicktopic and not me :p
 
QTesseract said:
Honestly, I don't see how daisy's ability is really useful except in combination to mine or really excellent playing. Their ability seems perfectly suited for seeing through the miller (ie you), I can confirm Townies for them to compare to, and I can investigate one member of a pair that doesn't match to figure out which if any was town without us wasting 2 days, 2 lynches, and a bunch of daisy's town cred. Like, daisy has no idea which member isn't town, can get lots of false positives from npcs (both in town-npc mismatch, and scum npc mismatch to "confirm" scum as town), and can't repeat or bounce off known town more than once. Without a day 1 as good as ours was, I don't really think this game would be winnable with daisy as the sole cop.
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We have, supposedly, two masons. Which can be used with Daisy to confirm up to three other players. Just, right there. As well as to confirm an NPC claim. That's kinda ridiculous.

QTesseract said:
The problem is, what if Daisy bypasses miller and we get a false positive (or negative)?
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Ridiculous supposition. There's no reason to assume it's at all likely that we have a faction cop type power that bypasses the power specifically meant to fuck with faction cops without any hint in either role card that this is so.

Like, there's I suppose an outside chance the game is outright bastard, but this is very much baseless.
 
Broken Base said:
especially Pawn ( a doc who has flavor but it doesn't show at night, completely contrary to our jailer's claim? When doc is a super easy scumclaim when it is known there probably isn't one, and gives an escape hatch for Q? Combine with Pawn's play?
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Okay, @Nictis did you get any sort of fluff about an egg/covering/armor then?

And why would it have been known for there not be a doctor in the game when it's a very common role? When I claimed there was at least one person who was unclaimed and a few others have vague claims that never specified their roles.

And for an escape hatch? People were literally saying that if there's a doctor they should claim to potentially stop a mislynch, I can show you the post if you forgot about it. And I explained in my last post that I'm aware that I'm tying myself to QT on some level meaning if I'm scum it's stupid to do. With a 4 person scum group, I'd be tying the last two members publicly so it's a no go. In a 5 man group, it's still too risky since if things go south it'd leave one mafia member alive with no townies dead into N3 if QT and I would be lynched. I'd call bullshit on a 6 man scum team so I'm not dignifying that with a response.

Basically with no town dead and mafia down two people tying myself to a teammate is just too risky and would be a dumb ploy at this point.

And with my play? I was making sure to stay on the border of town/possible scum in most player's eyes (except apparently yours for some reason) and explicitly said that when I claimed.
 
Broken Base said:
They don't show up as miller as far as I'm aware- oh ok. But I'm not sure where that gets us. We know Rem isn't town, they agree they aren't town. So Cyri's investigation is going to get a different hit regardless of if they're scum or NPC and we're right back where we started.
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Oh right, I thought you were asking to be proven.
That makes more sense.

Terrabrand said:
The point would be to test Rem's NPC claim and Broken Base's NPC miller claim. If they show up co-aligned they're telling the truth. Or both are scum. Either way. If they show up not co-aligned one is lying.
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Yup, I get it.
 
Alright, fuck. I'm not sure who to vote for anymore.

[X] Null Rem

I'll be checking back as frequently as possible tonight and hopefully lock in a vote once we come to a more solid consensus or I get a clearer picture of who's the most suspect at the moment. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm not anywhere near sold on anyone in particular being scum, but of course we know there have to be scum out there. This whole situation is dubious as fuck, which is actually pretty interesting considering most if not all of us have claimed a role already.
 
Terrabrand said:
Ridiculous supposition. There's no reason to assume it's at all likely that we have a faction cop type power that bypasses the power specifically meant to fuck with faction cops without any hint in either role card that this is so.

Like, there's I suppose an outside chance the game is outright bastard, but this is very much baseless.
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See, I would agree, but, well, Daisy isn't a cop. She really isn't. I'm our factions cop, so a miller that blocks me is already fulfilling it's purpose. From a flavor standpoint, I remember player roles by talking to them, so browser has good reason to flip scum, but daisy checks flowers. Any miller that works by character interactions has strong flavor reasons to be completely ineffective. Bypassing Miller and Godfather would also be very handy to make up for how incredibly, incredibly weak Daisy's power is.
 
Pawn Lelouch said:
And why would it have been known for there not be a doctor in the game when it's a very common role? When I claimed there was at least one person who was unclaimed and a few others have vague claims that never specified their roles.
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Joe's softclaim was really clearly not doctor. LMBF, yes. That was a gambit on your part, theoretically. Of course, it worked. Derp hadn't claimed I think, but was also an NPC so a doctor claim doesn't even really matter. Terra maybe? I'd have to check the exact timing of the claim. I thought Terra had claimed first. And it isn't that I think your play is inconsistent with being doctor, I just have the same issues brought up with prior that you noted as understandable.

Although thinking about it, you actually have played solid today, imo. A lot better from my perspective. I think I'm just conf-biasing myself because I've had a solid read for a long time and I'm just... assuming the worst at this point. I want to see Q's flip, just in case that's a factor, and I want the night to think on this, I think. If that's k.

@QTesseract- Let's me clear, that last post wasn't an accusation, it was a note that I wasn't going to further engage because I wanted to try and do other things. Between the time I woke up, the mason claim, and answering a bunch of other people's responses, this became an impossibility anyway, more or less. I don't think it was a tactical move of yours to take up my time regardless of alignment, I think we just got caught up in an argument.

I think I see my problem here. And it's not with you, but with me. We arealmost completely in a set up debate and I simply don't have the knowledgebase or skills required to go toe to toe with someone like you or Nictis. I do much better when I'm framing things in terms of play and playstyle, at least I think I am. People can compare my arguments today with my like... 8-9 at least write ups and come to their own conclusions. I've never even tried to do this sort of thing before; typically I'm able to leave this sort of debate, at my previous site, to other better players in discussions. But today, aside from an interjection or two from Terra, it's been just me. So I felt the need to try. If you were scum, I think this was a clever way of framing the debate on your part. If you're town I don't think you meant anything nefarious or malicious by it, why not put a colossal amount of emphasis on your strong arguments, and I jumped on your claim and started this debate anyway. It is, from what I estimate, roughly 3 hours before deadline. Things can change in an instant in this game, but I genuinely don't think that's going to happen by us re-vitalizing the argument. I see little difference between me futilely attempting to attack your points and not doing a good job of it, if anything the latter is worse for town, since the former leaves the player to make up their own mind on who is right and the latter makes your arguments look superior because I'm actively trying to attack and failing. So I appreciate all your effort, I do, but I'm going to bow out. If players are convinced by your points, they aren't going to be convinced by my weak rebuttals anyway. I disagree with what you're saying, I think you're spinning my words at times, but this isn't my expertise, so I'm bowing out of the discussion.

Given Rem was almost up for lynch today largely because of his claim and this was perfectly predictable, I simply can not accept you not investigating Rem and investigating joebobjoe instead to test the case of someone you think is town instead of clearing a Medium, a deeply useful role in some respects, and an NPC lynch is almost always inherently inferior to a scum lynch. I can concede the rest of your choices to playstyle differences, but not that one. I don't think the day events have been inherently beneficial to scum, let alone one that allows us to lynch two people; if there are indeed two scum left, this was a potential auto-loss on their part. Even if their in good standing, things can change very quickly. Of course if there's 5 scum it's sliiightly less risky but that cripples a lot of your arguments so I know you can't concede that. This is the kind of play you make when you're fully stocked and have a lot of day game and say in the town. Unless you want to claim Terra and I are the scum (which would be impossible with four scum anyway now), this was a terrible mistake and makes far more sense with an anti-town NPC not aligned with the scum or QM fiat. Either makes the balance for the scum much worse. I continue to firmly believe that. I also genuinely believe that D2 wouldn't have been so bad if everything hadn't gone FUBAR in terms of claims, something unpredictable.

These are points I will hold to and I... can't see myself being convinced otherwise. But I'm going to bow out, it's been an honor being your opponent, and wish you luck on getting out of a lynch.

I'm not sure what I'll do for the last 3 hours, maybe I'll take another look at joebobjoe to make sure he's the secondary lynch I want, or if I want to pull someone else out of a hat, though I'm unsure who it could be. Maybe I'll just... take a break. This has been a tiring day, if very differently so than Day 2, and I honestly genuinely long for the night, regardless of how this one ends.

@Terrabrand would you be able to test your claim today? I mean I feel like with two lynches there's a bit less risk here to its utilization, and proving it would do wonders, I feel, since at the very least it is not something likely to be a scumpower?
 
Vote Tally
Adhoc vote count started by Pawn Lelouch on Aug 6, 2018 at 10:10 PM, finished with 246 posts and 14 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by Pawn Lelouch on Aug 6, 2018 at 10:10 PM, finished with 246 posts and 14 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by Pawn Lelouch on Aug 6, 2018 at 10:11 PM, finished with 246 posts and 14 votes.
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QTesseract said:
See, I would agree, but, well, Daisy isn't a cop. She really isn't. I'm our factions cop, so a miller that blocks me is already fulfilling it's purpose. From a flavor standpoint, I remember player roles by talking to them, so browser has good reason to flip scum, but daisy checks flowers. Any miller that works by character interactions has strong flavor reasons to be completely ineffective. Bypassing Miller and Godfather would also be very handy to make up for how incredibly, incredibly weak Daisy's power is.
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You are the only person who says it's weak. It's capable of verifying town just fine. Or catching scum. Either way.

Like, being able to go 'these two are co-aligned, so if one is scum both are and if one is town both are' is amazingly useful.


Broken Base said:
@Terrabrand would you be able to test your claim today? I mean I feel like with two lynches there's a bit less risk here to its utilization, and proving it would do wonders, I feel, since at the very least it is not something likely to be a scumpower?
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Only way I could definitely prove my claim would be to use my power to tiebreak a second placer choice. So we'd need to setup a tie for second place intentionally.

Or otherwise I could burn more than one to flip someone to second from third or less. But the point is while I'll use some extra votes if it looks relevant, but I can't prove it without other people cooperating in essence. (Or me burning a lot of votes to ram through a secondary lynch)
 
I mean, for all I know day's end will list who had more, but that'd also require cooperation right now.
 
* Oh in terms of time spent I should also note the roughly 60-90 minutes spent at the therapist, so yeah, today has just not been a great day to do what I wanted to do. This has not been an optimal time to have this day in general for me, but that's nobody's fault.

@Terrabrand- Fair enough. If that was clear I apologize, I didn't quite perceive it as how your power worked fundamentally. I know it sounds like an excuse at this point but I really am dead mentally.
 
Broken Base said:
@QTesseract- Let's me clear, that last post wasn't an accusation, it was a note that I wasn't going to further engage because I wanted to try and do other things. Between the time I woke up, the mason claim, and answering a bunch of other people's responses, this became an impossibility anyway, more or less. I don't think it was a tactical move of yours to take up my time regardless of alignment, I think we just got caught up in an argument.

I think I see my problem here. And it's not with you, but with me. We arealmost completely in a set up debate and I simply don't have the knowledgebase or skills required to go toe to toe with someone like you or Nictis. I do much better when I'm framing things in terms of play and playstyle, at least I think I am. People can compare my arguments today with my like... 8-9 at least write ups and come to their own conclusions. I've never even tried to do this sort of thing before; typically I'm able to leave this sort of debate, at my previous site, to other better players in discussions. But today, aside from an interjection or two from Terra, it's been just me. So I felt the need to try. If you were scum, I think this was a clever way of framing the debate on your part. If you're town I don't think you meant anything nefarious or malicious by it, why not put a colossal amount of emphasis on your strong arguments, and I jumped on your claim and started this debate anyway. It is, from what I estimate, roughly 3 hours before deadline. Things can change in an instant in this game, but I genuinely don't think that's going to happen by us re-vitalizing the argument. I see little difference between me futilely attempting to attack your points and not doing a good job of it, if anything the latter is worse for town, since the former leaves the player to make up their own mind on who is right and the latter makes your arguments look superior because I'm actively trying to attack and failing. So I appreciate all your effort, I do, but I'm going to bow out. If players are convinced by your points, they aren't going to be convinced by my weak rebuttals anyway. I disagree with what you're saying, I think you're spinning my words at times, but this isn't my expertise, so I'm bowing out of the discussion.
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If I don't manage to shake off the lynch today, when I flip town, please don't try use this as "evidence" to nail BB. Outright ignoring the arguments of strong arguers is a very good tactic. If someone is enough better of a debater, their arguments, oddly enough, stop meanign anything, because they fail the basic Bayesian test of evidence; it fails to differentiate between the two options. If I can whip up an equally convincing argument as scum as I can as town, then ignoring me is a smart move since a convincing argument from me adds no extra info.

That's not to say you shouldn't read arguments, but it's a good idea to write down how suspicious you are of them beforehand, and if you find yourself convinced by rhetoric rather than by facts you may want to go stay strong on your previous read.

To clarify, though, if arguing with you gives me a better chance to shake off lynch, then it was a good move. I think my role's investigative power is more valuable to town by a significant portion than 1 day worth of your (admittedly excellent) posting; if nothing else, I'm a priority target for scum which takes some heat off you and terrabrand.
Given Rem was almost up for lynch today largely because of his claim and this was perfectly predictable, I simply can not accept you not investigating Rem and investigating joebobjoe instead to test the case of someone you think is town instead of clearing a Medium, a deeply useful role in some respects, and an NPC lynch is almost always inherently inferior to a scum lynch. I can concede the rest of your choices to playstyle differences, but not that one. I don't think the day events have been inherently beneficial to scum, let alone one that allows us to lynch two people; if there are indeed two scum left, this was a potential auto-loss on their part. Even if their in good standing, things can change very quickly. Of course if there's 5 scum it's sliiightly less risky but that cripples a lot of your arguments so I know you can't concede that. This is the kind of play you make when you're fully stocked and have a lot of day game and say in the town. Unless you want to claim Terra and I are the scum (which would be impossible with four scum anyway now), this was a terrible mistake and makes far more sense with an anti-town NPC not aligned with the scum or QM fiat. Either makes the balance for the scum much worse. I continue to firmly believe that. I also genuinely believe that D2 wouldn't have been so bad if everything hadn't gone FUBAR in terms of claims, something unpredictable.
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The thing is, not only is hitting scum more important than confirming if an NPC is lying about their powers, it's something I could do without revealing my role. If Daisy confirmed me as town, I could sink or save Joe without role revealing. if I wanted to give info on Rem/King Boo, it would involve me publicizing my role, and honestly? Confirming Medium isn't worth a role reveal from our sole cop.

As for the days events, Day 2 was entirely damning. There's no argument by which that could have been a town friendly / neutral job (it put two of our best on the chopping block, took away our pressure, and took away our lynch), and the chances of it being random are 1/306 so I'm perfectly fine being over 99% sure that this was on purpose by scum. If only one of you had been on the ballot, I might have bought it being random since that would be a full 22% chance, but not a chance with both of you. Given that, I must further consider that scum thought this was helpful. Maybe they do have some kind of investigative / trapper, and knew I was both cop and on the chopping block, or maybe they're desperate, or they have major control over the lynch convo (You? BB? Cyric? Someone in one of the town masons?), or they only have so much control of the days actions (can choose who's dueling, but not that duels happen).



Anyway, I'm having to give real thought to the fact that I probably won't be able to shake this lynch, and how I can best help town win without a role/alignment cop,. when the balance was built arounf them having one. I think the best way would be using me to confirm or deny rem's clai; my best bets would be dropping what little information hasn't been shared in terms of "details of the jailer role," plus writing up one of my standard speech-style posts if any of you think you can identify my style of writing vs an imposter's.
Terrabrand said:
You are the only person who says it's weak. It's capable of verifying town just fine. Or catching scum. Either way.

Like, being able to go 'these two are co-aligned, so if one is scum both are and if one is town both are' is amazingly useful.
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Nictis does too, but I'm honestly surprised more people haven't noticed because it's blatantly obvious how week it is? There are 3 teams, no repeating of confirmed town, vulnerable to fake town confirms (like npc-npc), high opportunity cost (Town-NPC can waste 2 lynches, NPC-Scum can get scum off, even town-scum takes 1.5 lynches to get results off of and can result in key dead towns people). I really don't get how you aren't seeing how inadequate of a cop power it is, and that (as seems likely at this point) when I get lynched and flip town, I hope you understand that this isn't a cover up by me and you're ascribing way too much power to it.
 
Soooo our second vote being at "2" feels totally unacceptable. Even "5" is sketchy.

Pawn- You are really "eh" on Q, yes? If that overwhelms your 50-50 shot, then vote him. If you don't like that, and think joebob is scummy, vote him.
@Nictis- You think Q is town, how do you feel about joe? IF you think joe is decently scummy, vote him?
@Rikimaru- Q or joebob? Either strike your fancy?
@Joebobjoe- what are you doing man you're on the block
@Cheese4Every1- I get that you aren't sure who to vote, but pick someone, please?
@Rem what are you doing man you were almost on the block and could be again

If any of you have good alternate options, I'd love to hear them. Part of the reason I like competing wagons is that it allows people to pick a side and absolutely nobody is doing that.
 
To clarify, "Someone in one of the town masons" is a scum that's in one of the mason chats pretending to be town, which I've seen before in some mafia games.
 
And I think we can all agree that QT is one of the two lynches for the day (50% to be scum means he is a must lynch ultimately and I do doubt him being town personally) but any suggestions for the second lynch of the day?

I honestly want to lynch Paradox right now since we know that he's not going to help town at all, especially since his mason is public now.

With Cyricubed planning to check LMBF and Rem, that's one of the masons that would be checked while lynching Paradox would let us confirm Nictis 100%. Meaning that both masons would be checked which is my main concern right now since I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was scum/lying and it would leave the better players in the groups intact.

[X] Lynch MedievalParadox
 
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