Lands of Red and Gold

Lands of Red and Gold #65: Empire State of Mind
Lands of Red and Gold #65: Empire State of Mind

"The World he found was New
And Death on swift wings Flew
To Men who sweet maize Grew."

- From "Elegy to Columbus", by Piety "Chancellor" Jackson

--

Taken from: "Cannon, Clocks and Crops: The Destinies of Human Societies."
By Julius Sanford
Newport [New Haven, Connecticut]: Winthrop & Jessup, 1993.

Prologue

It is both commonplace and misunderstood that history has yielded different fates for peoples from different parts of the world. The Ice Age ended some 13,000 years ago, at a time when all humans in existence lived similar lifestyles: small, usually nomadic bands of hunter-gatherers equipped with stone tools similar to those which our prehuman ancestors had wielded on the savannahs of ancient Africa.

In the millennia which followed, some of those peoples went on to develop literate societies with metal tools, some peoples became farmers but remained illiterate, and some remained hunter-gatherers with only stone tools. A smaller subset of those literate metal tool using societies went on to dominate the globe, conquering or exterminating the non-literate societies, and then with the twin prongs of commerce and industrialisation, overcoming even the other literate metal tool using societies.

The legacy of these historical inequalities continues to shape the modern world. While the fact of these inequalities is one of the most basic items of world history, the cause of these inequalities remains shrouded in ambiguity and controversy...

Examination of the differences between these societies poses a host of questions. Why were Europeans the ones who sailed to Cathay, and later dominated it, rather than the other way around? Why did Europeans conquer and settle so much of the New World, while no New World society established itself outside of the Americas? Why did Bantu farmers from West Africa settle and displace the Pygmies and Khoisan peoples from sub-equatorial Africa? Why were Austronesian peoples successful in expanding across a distance that spans half the globe, from Madagascar to Easter Island, while the more ancient farming societies of New Guinea remained confined to that land and nearby islands? Why were the Nuttana the first to contact Japan and Cathay, rather than the other way around?

Technology clearly plays a role in many of these cases, most prominently in the European conquest and large-scale population replacements in the New World. Yet technology is not in itself a complete answer, as shown by the Nuttana who were less advanced than Cathay and Japan, but still reached those nations first.

The answers to these questions can be found in the explanation for the differences which have shaped the modern history of the world. Where did these differences originate? What did they mean for the fate of different peoples?

This book is an attempt to answer these questions...

Chapter 2: Collisions of Continents

For the first 12,000 years after the end of the last Ice Age, different human societies on separate continents largely developed in isolation. While there was some contact between them, this was usually sporadic or carried on by a chain of intermediaries. For most of their course those societies developed along their own paths. Only over the last thousand years have the different societies of the world come into direct, sustained contact.

These collisions of continents are most dramatically demonstrated in Hernan Cortes' conquest of the Aztecs, and Francisco Pizzaro's triumph over the Incas. These two clashes marked the defeat of the two greatest empires of the New World by a handful of men from one society in the Old World, and would be followed by the large-scale population replacement of most of the Americas' inhabitants with peoples from the Old World, and in some cases from the Third World.

Other collisions of continents often lacked the same defining moments that marked the Spanish conquests in the Americas, but their consequences were profound for all peoples involved. The modern history of sub-Saharan Africa is the story of the collision of Africans with invaders from Europe and the Near East, and of a cultural though non-political invasion from Aururia. The history of the Indian continent is likewise shaped by the collision with European societies, and the different consequences for the societies within India. The modern history of Aururia is the story of multiple collisions, both as European and Polynesian cultures collided with it, and Aururian societies colliding with others across the globe.

The different outcomes of these cultural collisions were shaped by the differences which had emerged in the societies of each continent over the last 13,000 years. These differences are simply illustrated by using the year 1500 AD as a convenient dividing line. This marked the beginning of a watershed moment, when continents were about to collide. The separate destinies of each continent became merged after that time...

In 1500 AD, each of the continents had diverse societies, in most cases ranging from stone-tool using, non-literate hunter-gatherer bands to sedentary, literate, metal-tool using farmers at least partially formed into states. The gulf between the continents was vast, and these differences would quickly become pivotal in world history. For our purposes, Europe should be considered to include North Africa and West Asia, as both are joined by the Mediterranean. Europe was almost exclusively occupied by literate, metal-using sedentary farmers, with only a few herders and hunter-gatherers in the arctic and desert fringes. India was similarly controlled largely by organised states, as were large parts of Asia, although that continent also had vast northern reaches controlled by nomadic herders or hunter-gatherers.

Other continents, however, were not at the same level of development. Aururia was occupied by several organised, literate, iron-using farming states in its south-eastern and south-western corners, but much of the southern half of the continent was still occupied only by bronze-using non-literate chiefdoms, while the northern half of the continent was still occupied almost exclusively by stone-tool using hunter-gatherer bands whose way of life had not changed significantly since the end of the last Ice Age. Africa likewise had a few metal-tool using, literate, farming states such as Ethiopia, but large parts of the continent were non-literate and were not organised beyond the level of chiefdoms. North and South America each had only one large organised metal-tool using state, the Aztecs and Incas, and most of both continents were still at a lower level of technology and social organisation...

These differences were brought into sharp contrast as continents collided after 1500 AD. These collisions saw societies in many continents conquered or dominated, and in many cases replaced entirely, by a relative handful of organised societies, mostly from Europe.

The collision between Spain and Inca, between Old World and New, is the most iconic example of this collision. The advantages which Spain possessed were many: cannon both as artillery and handcannon, seafaring technology, literacy, steel armour and weapons, horses, and diseases. The Incas were overwhelmed, as were the Aztecs before them and many other cultures would be in the years afterward, by cannon and the other technology that accompanied them.

The fate of the Incas is illustrative of the collision of continents, but as other examples demonstrate, differences in technology were not the only differences that mattered. In 1500 AD, Cathay was unquestionably the most advanced society on the globe. Over the preceding millennia, Cathay had developed a host of technological innovations, including the predecessors of the same cannon which the Spanish used in the New World.

In some measure Cathayan technology continued to develop even after 1500. Notably, though, Cathay also rejected some aspects of technology, both home-grown and foreign. Cathayan voyagers such as Zheng He had pioneered seafaring technology which extended Cathayan influence across two other continents. Yet Cathay abandoned its own maritime adventures. It also resisted superior technology when introduced from other continents. European clocks were mechanically superior timepieces than those produced in Cathay, but the Cathayans treated them merely as toys. Cathay's spurning of practical clock technology is the best symbol of some cultures' rejection of advances in technology...

The world's history since 1500 has been one of transfer, of technology, crops and animals, diseases, and populations, all moved around the globe. The fate of different societies has been determined by how they adapted to these great exchanges.

The differences in technology made a major part in deciding this adaptation, but this provides only part of the tale. What mattered was whether each society was both capable and willing to adapt to the global transfers after 1500, including the diseases which would shape so much of later history.

A society needed to be capable of adapting. If the gap in technology was too large, no amount of willingness would change the destiny of a society when continents collided. Such was the fate of most stone tool using hunter-gatherers who fought cannon-using literate farmers; the consequences were obvious and largely pre-destined. Early cannon, both artillery and hand cannon, were significant in the European irruption into the New World and the Third World [1]. More advanced cannon, and the broader developments in military technology which they symbolised, became more significant in later centuries as the collisions continued between Europe, Aururia, Africa, India and Asia.

Where the gap in technology was smaller, if both sides had cannon or at least quick capacity to learn how to use them, then the receptiveness and other institutions of state mattered. If a society was prepared to take up clocks, and all of the other new technologies which they symbolise, then that society was much better-placed to triumph during the upheavals that followed.

And, as the next section of this book will explore, it was the crops and animals that were available to each continent which largely determined whether societies got up to the starting gate in 1500 AD...

Chapter 5: Nature's Bounty

Crops permit farming. That is a truism. The fact of history which takes more examination is that even in areas where domesticable plants existed, those crops were different the world over. Their differing characteristics drove much of the destiny of the societies which they fed.

Ease of domesticability varied considerably between crops of different regions. Some regions included a diversity of crops that were readily and quickly domesticated. Others had fewer crops, or ones which needed much longer unconscious human selection before a package of crops emerged which supported agriculture. This single characteristic of regions goes far in explaining the different destinies of societies on different continents...

The Near East, Cathay, and New Guinea were most blessed in their native crops, with agriculture emerging soonest in those regions (by 7500 BC, as shown in Table 5.2). The Andes and Aururia were intermediate in their ease of domestication, with full agriculture emerging later in Mesoamerica, while eastern North America was the most recent independent centre of domestication. For the remaining continent, archaeology has not yet determined whether African agriculture emerged independently or was initiated by transfer from the Near East...

The crop packages developed in each centre of domestication each had their own individual suite of characteristics, which shaped the societies that they fed. Two examples of this are the red yam and maize.

The red yam is the main staple of the ancient Aururian crop package. It provided the largest source of agricultural calories for ancient Aururian farmers. Even today it is the single most calorific crop on the continent. Maize filled a similar role in Mesoamerican agriculture, and after its transfer, to pre-Columbian North American agriculture, too. It is entirely possible that without those particular crops, there would have been no independent emergence of agriculture in either Aururia or Mesoamerica, with major ramifications for world history.

With such a dominating agricultural presence, the characteristics of these two plants had major consequences for the societies which developed on each continent.

Red yams, like most root crops, have a decent carbohydrate yield but are very low in protein. Unlike most other domesticated root crops, red yams are a perennial crop which can be harvested and replanted for a decade or more. Red yams grow well even in arid conditions, a valuable ability in a frequently drought-scourged continent.

Maize, like most cereals, is a high-energy crop which has a reasonable protein content. Maize provides a very high yield of calories per acre, more than most other staple crops such as wheat, and is also more water-efficient than most staple crops [2], except for red yams and cornnarts [wattles]. Maize is typically thought of as a tropical or subtropical crop, though it can be harvested in temperate zones with spring planting.

As perennial crops, red yams needed less effort to plant and harvest than most annual crops. The tubers can stay in the soil for several months, so harvesting is not as time-critical as it is for cereals or fruit. These characteristics mean that red yams, and the other perennial Aururian crops, need fewer labourers to produce an agricultural surplus than comparable societies. In turn, red-yam-based societies can support more non-agricultural specialists. Aururian societies were notable for their larger urban populations and more vigorous trade networks.

The drought-resistant nature of red yams meant in turn that red yams allowed remarkable agricultural stability. Aururia has the most irregular climate of any inhabited continent, plagued by unpredictable droughts that alternate with devastating floods. The stability brought by red yams allowed Aururian farmers to endure despite these natural challenges.

Despite these advantages, red yams also placed remarkable constraints on native Aururian agriculture. Red yams are plants very well-adapted to subtropical latitudes, but are simply incapable of growing within the tropics. Not even the best modern plant breeders have produced a variety of yams which can grow productively within tropical latitudes.

Before European irruption, this meant that productive Aururian agriculture was essentially confined to the south-eastern and south-western corners of the continent. The northern half of the continent was devoid of agriculture, and remained inhabited by hunter-gatherers. This left native Aururian societies severely limited in their available arable land and opportunities for expansion. If Aururia had been 1000 miles further south, the available farmland would have been much larger, and the history of the world would have been entirely different.

In Mesoamerica, maize agriculture also defined the societies that emerged. Maize was the only major true cereal domesticated in the New World (and none at all in the Third World), as distinguished from the myriad cereals domesticated in the Old World. Maize provided very high farming yields per acre, allowing for the emergence of large urban centres and high populations.

However, maize's most defining characteristic is that it exhausts the soil. In Mesoamerican societies without animals to provide fertiliser, or alternative crops to switch to, this left them vulnerable to agricultural collapse. The pattern for maize-based agriculture was for repeated flourishing of urban civilizations, followed by agricultural collapse after soils were exhausted. The Tamochan [Olmecs], Teotihuacan, Classical Mayans, Cahokians, and Puebloans were among the maize-based urban civilizations which emerged and then collapsed in North America. The lack of agricultural stability was characteristic of maize-based cultures, and the impossibility of maintaining long-term cultural continuity had major consequences for the history of the North American peoples...

Agriculture in the Old World's continents did not have an equivalent of the single-source crops such as maize and red yams. From early in the emergence of agriculture, Old World farmers had a range of cereals or other staple crops to choose from, and were not so restricted by the characteristics of any single crop. Rice became the key staple in much of India and Asia, but even then rice only reached its dominant position because it was the best available crop, not because it was the only suitable staple crop. Rice was not the initial domesticate in East Asia, but its cultivation became widespread as it replaced the earlier millets that were the original cereals of East Asian agriculture...

Chapter 9: Happiness and Head Starts

Each different crop in the world possesses different characteristics, and thus provides different opportunities to societies that grow it. Having more crops available is an advantage to any society, as it gives more flexibility in adapting to different circumstances, and often better agricultural yield.

The benefits of new crops were often immense. Consider, for instance, the Nuttana of north-eastern Aururia. They were one of the most well-known Aururian societies, and the main way in which Aururian culture was transmitted to the world. But the Nuttana culture was created on land that its forebears did not occupy at the time of European irruption. Indeed, the Nuttana lands were not farmed at all before European contact. The two crops which were foundational to the Nuttana, sweet potato and sugar cane, were not even native to Aururia...

The Old World, and particularly the Eurasian supercontinent, had the twin advantages of earlier agriculture and multiple centres of domestication. Eurasians received crops from the separate agricultural origins of the Near East, Cathay, and New Guinea, and even a few crops from Africa such as coffee, sorghum and pearl millet. These widespread, earlier exchanges of crops gave the Old World a very long head start when compared to societies in the Americas or Aururia.

In contrast, geographical barriers were greater in the New World and Third World, such as more deserts and jungles. This, combined with the later start to agriculture compared to the Old World, limited the exchanges of crops between regions with independent centres of domestication. For instance, Mesoamerican and Andean agriculture transmitted only a few crops in each direction, such as maize and cassava. Other extremely useful crops such as the potato remained confined to their region of origin. In turn, this meant that the defining characteristics of the native crop packages, and their restrictions, continued in those regions until 1500 and the world upheavals that followed...

The three continents of Eurasia between them possessed the largest areas of arable land and had access to the largest number of centres of domestication. The earlier dates of domestication, from the greater ease of domesticability of their crops, and the overall greater number of available crops, gave the most opportunity to the Eurasian continents.

Conversely, eastern North America had the latest start of domestication, and the fewest and least useful crops. This gave eastern North America the least opportunity of any continent...

Chapter 11: Germs and Livestock

...The emergence of epidemic diseases, then, is a function of two factors. The first is the number of domesticated animals, which act as reservoirs for potential diseases. The second factor is the length of stable urban civilizations, which offer the largest population pool of potential infectees for diseases to make the jump to human-centric epidemics.

Of these factors, the Old World in general and Eurasia in particular were clearly most-suited to acquiring lethal epidemic diseases. Aururia was intermediate as an origin of diseases; a long history of large cities, but only a few domestic animals that could provide their diseases.

Mesoamerica was the least likely region of any to provide diseases, due to its paucity of domestic animals, and regular collapse of urban centres. This resulted in the paradoxical situation of healthier, larger urban populations in Mesoamerica, but the greatest vulnerability to diseases from elsewhere...

Chapter 13: Uneven Exchanges

Europe, Asia and India had the largest head start among the continents, thanks to the earliest exchanges of crops and technology. The example of the Kiyungu in Aururia illustrates how even a small exchange can transform continents. The Kiyungu were one society in Aururia confined by the characteristics of the red yam, which meant that they could not penetrate further north into the northern half of the continent.

The introduction of a single crop, the sweet potato, around 1300 AD transformed Kiyungu society. The sweet potato was capable of growing in the tropics, and the limitations on the Kiyungu were removed. In the three centuries after receiving the sweet potato, the Kiyungu advanced over a considerable portion of coastal north-eastern Aururia, and would have progressed further if not for European irruption...

The great exchanges of world history, the Columbian Exchange and the Houtmanian Exchange, transformed the world, uniting the continents, and bringing together all of the crops from their independent centres of domestication. The greatest benefits came to those who already had a head start in both technology and capability: Europeans most of all, and to a lesser degree the Aururians...

--

[1] When compared to his historical equivalent, Julius Sandford places less emphasis on steel, because there were more iron-using cultures in Aururia and Africa that still suffered from European irruption. Likewise, while he considers germs, he views them as less decisive than they were historically, because of the presence of new diseases waiting in Aururia.

[2] Sanford's research is in fact partly incorrect. Some domesticated cereals, including maize and sorghum, use a form of photosynthesis called C4 carbon fixation, unlike the C3 carbon fixation cycle used by other domesticated cereals such as wheat and rice. (Most plants in general use C3 carbon fixation for photosynthesis.) The C4 process is indeed more water-efficient than C3. However, maize is a plant with extremely shallow roots, which means that it is limited to collecting surface moisture, and so is in fact not very drought-tolerant.

--

Thoughts?
 
A very impressive piece, I adored the alt universe title for Guns Germs and Steel, very clever work there, and I think this was extremely well researched and a unique, as well as clever way of delivering more details, history, insights and exposition. I'm not well versed enough on world history to make much of the couple things that stood out to me and overall I really liked it!
 
Now I want to see an alternate universe where Mesoamerica had something to replenish the soil...
Maybe that's the ATL version of Lands of Red and Gold
 
A very impressive piece, I adored the alt universe title for Guns Germs and Steel, very clever work there, and I think this was extremely well researched and a unique, as well as clever way of delivering more details, history, insights and exposition. I'm not well versed enough on world history to make much of the couple things that stood out to me and overall I really liked it!
Glad you liked it.

This particular chapter was inspired by a passing joke in the earlier interlude essay where I invented a footnote reference to an alternative version of Guns, Germs and Steel. Then i got to thinking how could I make the title of that reference really work in practice. This was the result.

Now I want to see an alternate universe where Mesoamerica had something to replenish the soil...
Maybe that's the ATL version of Lands of Red and Gold
That would make for an interesting timeline in itself. The only divergence which I can think of offhand is one where better maritime technology leads to crop and domesticated animal exchanges between the Andes and Mesoamerica. (There was some trade there in OTL, but I'm thinking of a larger scale version). That could bring llamas and alpacas. Assuming that they can tolerate the heat of Mesoamerica - at least in the alpine regions - that could be a real game-changer.

...a universe where the benefits of urine based fertilizers were discovered and exploited to maximum gain?
... Must resist a joke about taking the piss...

Seriously, the problem with urine-based fertilisers would be one of scale. As, indeed, would be versions where there is a suggestion of using human feces for the same purpose. It could be done, but the necessary scale and labour would prevent it being done enough to making a difference. What made animal-based fertilisers more efficient was firstly that there would be a lot more of them, and secondly that the animals could be left to fertilise the fields directly, or at least nearby, reducing the labour and transport costs considerably.

Greater use of legumes or some other similar nitrogen-fixing plants as part of a crop-rotation cycle would help, but a combination of legumes and animal fertilisers is would would really replenish the soil.
 
Glad you liked it.

This particular chapter was inspired by a passing joke in the earlier interlude essay where I invented a footnote reference to an alternative version of Guns, Germs and Steel. Then i got to thinking how could I make the title of that reference really work in practice. This was the result.
I think it worked extremely well, so kudos there!
That would make for an interesting timeline in itself. The only divergence which I can think of offhand is one where better maritime technology leads to crop and domesticated animal exchanges between the Andes and Mesoamerica. (There was some trade there in OTL, but I'm thinking of a larger scale version). That could bring llamas and alpacas. Assuming that they can tolerate the heat of Mesoamerica - at least in the alpine regions - that could be a real game-changer.
Sounds interesting!

Also, not sure if I am right, but as I understand it 'no dig gardens' leads to relatively self replenishing soil, can that help?
 
Glad you liked it.

This particular chapter was inspired by a passing joke in the earlier interlude essay where I invented a footnote reference to an alternative version of Guns, Germs and Steel. Then i got to thinking how could I make the title of that reference really work in practice. This was the result.


That would make for an interesting timeline in itself. The only divergence which I can think of offhand is one where better maritime technology leads to crop and domesticated animal exchanges between the Andes and Mesoamerica. (There was some trade there in OTL, but I'm thinking of a larger scale version). That could bring llamas and alpacas. Assuming that they can tolerate the heat of Mesoamerica - at least in the alpine regions - that could be a real game-changer.


... Must resist a joke about taking the piss...

Seriously, the problem with urine-based fertilisers would be one of scale. As, indeed, would be versions where there is a suggestion of using human feces for the same purpose. It could be done, but the necessary scale and labour would prevent it being done enough to making a difference. What made animal-based fertilisers more efficient was firstly that there would be a lot more of them, and secondly that the animals could be left to fertilise the fields directly, or at least nearby, reducing the labour and transport costs considerably.

Greater use of legumes or some other similar nitrogen-fixing plants as part of a crop-rotation cycle would help, but a combination of legumes and animal fertilisers is would would really replenish the soil.
Give! Mesoamerica! Llamas! Now!
 
I think it worked extremely well, so kudos there!

Sounds interesting!

Also, not sure if I am right, but as I understand it 'no dig gardens' leads to relatively self replenishing soil, can that help?
No dig gardens, or similar low-till or no-till farming methods, can help in some respects, but it also depends what crops are used. For maize/corn, for example, the plant does such a serious job of extracting the nutrients that something active is needed to restore the lost nutrients. That might be just letting the land lie rest (similar to no-dig garden), rotating in a legume or using added fertiliser (whether animal manure or otherwise), but just raising maize in a low-dig garden won't be enough for continuous farming. Not on the scale of farming practiced in Mesoamerica, at least.
 
No dig gardens, or similar low-till or no-till farming methods, can help in some respects, but it also depends what crops are used. For maize/corn, for example, the plant does such a serious job of extracting the nutrients that something active is needed to restore the lost nutrients. That might be just letting the land lie rest (similar to no-dig garden), rotating in a legume or using added fertiliser (whether animal manure or otherwise), but just raising maize in a low-dig garden won't be enough for continuous farming. Not on the scale of farming practiced in Mesoamerica, at least.
I see, that makes sense, thanks for the info there!
 
Lands of Red and Gold #66: Under The Nine-fold Crown
Lands of Red and Gold #66: Under The Nine-fold Crown

"Easier to juggle death adders than wear the Nine-fold Crown."
- Proverb in the Kingdom of Tjibarr

--

Sandstone Day, Cycle of Water, 4th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third [17 August 1636]
Estates of Nyulinga of the Azures, near Yoorala [Wentworth, New South Wales]
Kingdom of Tjibarr

Rain falling outside: soothing, welcoming, blessing. The sound of water bringing bounty to the soil, a rare and most auspicious rhythm here in the West Lands [1]. The lands here were almost as dry as the red heart, among the most marginal lands where crops could grow.

But how ever poor the rainfall might have been, these lands were Nyulinga's to manage as he would. Or should have been managed as he had instructed, which was why he had summoned one of his most senior farmers here, to hear his wrath.

The music of the rain came through the unshuttered windows into his manor-house. Nyulinga needed that sound; it was an anodyne to his soul. It helped to maintain much-needed composure, to preserve his shouting for a time when it would be most appropriate, not when he first saw the misguided farmer.

Nyulinga settled into a chair in his common meeting-hall. Nothing special distinguished the chair or the table beside him; it was but one of many used to entertain large gatherings. Indeed, a handful of his other guests were breaking their fast at other tables. Greeting the farmer here, instead of privately, was another part of the message he needed to send.

A brief nod to the nearest servant, and Jarrakana was ushered into his meeting hall.

If the senior farmer had any idea what fate awaited him, he did not show it. He glanced around the nearly empty meeting hall, then exchanged the usual polite greetings with Nyulinga, the same ones which would be used between even the bitterest rivals in the Dance [2].

"Be welcome, my guest," Nyulinga said.

"Fortune and good health to you," Jarrakanna replied.

Nyulinga waited a long moment before speaking again. Enough to make the senior farmer uncomfortable, and to test whether he would have the audacity of trying to speak first before someone of superior status.

When he decided that the message was clear enough, Nyulinga said, "What have you done to the trees near Three Stone Creek?"

"Cut down two hundred on the western march. You were told-"

"You had permission to cut down twenty, no more," Nyulinga said.

"I needed the timber for-"

"Why have you done this on my lands?" Nyulinga said. This farmer overreached his authority. Jarrakanna had authority to farm set lands, but only within the constraints set by Nyulinga. He had no authority to clear land, collect trees, or do anything further without permission.

"My kin required them. What does a couple of hundred trees matter?" The senior farmer, fool that he was, sounded completely unapologetic.

"Everything matters!" Nyulinga let himself shout now; anger fitted properly. "No more trees are to be cut down than are replaced. You have no forethought or management of the forests. If we cut down too many trees, then we would soon run out of trees, and then where would be?"

Proper management of forests was important anywhere, but doubly so here. Rain was a rare event around Nyulinga's lands, but floods were all too common. The Anedeli [River Darling] joined the Nyalananga [River Murray] a short distance upriver of his estates. The Anedeli was an irregular river, but flooded prodigiously at times.

Floods were a mixed blessing, but one his family had long learned to use. Crops in the ground at the time of floods could be ruined. Likewise, his manor-house had been built on a natural hill that had been further heightened to be above the worst known floods in memory of his own or his father's time.

Yet for all of their destruction, floods replenished the soil, quicker and cheaper than leaving each field to be grown with wealth-trees and wandered by noroons [emus] for two years. Trees, too, benefitted from a flood [3]. Timber was more valuable to his estates than crops, in most years. Jarrakanna's short-sighted actions threatened that.

The senior farmer paused for a long moment before attempting to answer. "Two hundred trees for good purpose is not-"

"You do not decide on that!" Nyulinga said. "Even if you had such authority, a man must care not just for today, but for all time. Now, what will I see if I look to the west? Fewer trees than I should." The bloody man continued to look at him in disbelief. "If there is to be a shift in priorities in my estates, then I will decide it."

Another man entered the meeting hall. Nyulinga gave him the briefest of glances, then decided to curtail his condemnation of the senior farmer. "Jarrakanna, you are dismissed from all of your allocated land in my estates. Find something smaller within another faction's land, if you can. No land controller in the Azures will accept you, not after making such a breach without even asking permission."

The senior farmer looked as if he wanted to argue further, even now. Then he caught sight of the newcomer ambling up beside Nyulinga, and darkness fell across his features as he thought better of it. The first glimmer of intelligence he had shown. Jarrakanna gave a curt shake of his head, then turned and stalked out.

The newcomer settled into the chair which the farmer had vacated. He reached for a kunduri pouch at his waist, and settled into the ritual of mixing the pouch with the cold wealth-tree ash on the table before him. While preparing, the man gave only the briefest of glances around the meeting hall. Suddenly every other guest in the meeting hall decided that they had eaten enough this morning, too. Within a matter of moments, the meeting hall was empty.

"Your talents are still strong," Nyulinga said dryly.

The newcomer grinned, though as with all of his smiles, it did not touch his eyes. "If my greatest gift was to clear a room without words, you would have put me out to chop trees years ago."

A casual reference to why Jarrakanna had been punished? With this man, it was hard to say. The minutiae of estate management should have been beneath his notice, but perhaps he had heard a whisper, or reasoned it out from the few sentences he had overheard. With this man's talents, it was far from impossible.

Nyulinga said, "What word have you heard from the west?"

The man shrugged, as casual a gesture as most of those he made. Most things about the man were average: middling height, middling build, middle-aged, so far as anything could be judged of his age. His skin, for now, was as dark as a Junditmara; most unusual for a man of the Five Rivers, and no doubt a product of some skin colouring or other. A story would be behind that, probably the same story about the neatly-trimmed moustache. A story which would never be told. The only real distinguishing feature was his eyes: so narrow he appeared to have a permanent glare etched onto his features.

"Trade with the Raw Men continues apace," said the man, who answered to the name of Northwind [4] when he bothered to acknowledge any name at all. "Those with wit and fortune can do well." He completed mixing the kunduri, and popped the ball into his mouth to start chewing.

That much, Nyulinga already knew. The Raw Men – Nedlandj, he had heard they called themselves – had some valuable goods to sell, but paying for them was difficult with the produce of his estates. Kunduri and spices, the Nedlandj valued most; rather more than they were worth to anyone of sense, in fact.

Alas, growing such crops on his frequently-flooded land was seldom easy. Timber fetched a good price along the Nyalananga, but it was useless to bring in bulk across the land road to Jugara [Victor Harbor]. He had considered trading his timber for spices and then trading those with the Nedlandj, but such bargains most benefitted the merchants in the middle.

"Any word of factions making trade pacts to gain better terms from the Raw Men?"

Northwind paused to spit, with perfect accuracy, into the bowl on the table reserved for that purpose. "Some small-scale bargains between individual merchants, but naught that suggests a major agreement between two factions."

Nyulinga shook his head. He had given some thought to establishing a trade pact between himself and another faction, to find something which the Nedlandj valued more highly, but had made no determination. Offering a pact could bring gains, but it also admitted a certain element of weakness. That was a perilous step in the Endless Dance.

"Some of the trade with the Raw Men is curious," Northwind offered. "Someone is buying Raw Men books. Quite a number of them. The agent appeared to be working for the Whites, but I do not know which particular noble was his principal. I judged it better not to probe too closely, so I advised your agent not to bid against him."

"Quite. No need to attract attention with a bidding war." Nyulinga wanted Nedlandj books, if they could be obtained at a decent price, but his wealth was not endless. Nor was he willing to make his interest too open. "There will be more books, now that the Nedlandj know they can be sold."

"If their Association approves it," Northwind said.

Nyulinga nodded. This Association – Company was their word – was one of the strangest features of the Raw Men. One Association which controlled all of the Nedlandj trade. Odd to think that it worked. Most frustratingly, it meant that certain Nedlandj goods were not for sale.

"Does their Association still forbid trade in their thunder-weapons?" Nyulinga said.

"A few have been sold." Northwind smiled. "Men are men, no matter how much their Association commands. But only a few weapons, and at a high price."

A few of those weapons was not enough. Even worse than that, the weapons were not like swords, which needed only to be swung, or even a bow, which needed arrows that any decent fletcher could make. The weapons needed fuel, like a fire, but a fuel which so far only the Nedlandj could supply.

"Can we force their hand in trade?" he mused aloud, though mostly for his own benefit.

"They have more knowledge than us," Northwind said. "In some things, at least."

"Not in all," Nyulinga said. He shook his head for emphasis. "You were in the east at the time, I think, but did you hear what happened when our physician tested the Raw Man doctor?"

"Only that our physician had some cutting remarks," Northwind said.

Ignoring the horrible pun – the man's talents did not extend to humour – Nyulinga said, "The Raw Men believe that bleeding a sick man can cure them. Our physician, Lopitja, let their doctor test it on three men fevered with swamp rash. Horrible. Two of the men died after the bleeding, and the third worsened; he was only saved when Lopitja intervened and refused to let the doctor bleed him again."

"So the Raw Men don't know everything. Comforting. But then they didn't know of kunduri before coming to our lands, either." Northwind chuckled. "Now kunduri they are keenest for of all, save for silver."

"If they value it so much..." Nyulinga's voice trailed away as he considered options. Silver would not help; the silver mines were under royal control. "What then, would they say to an embargo on their Association: if they will not sell weapons to us, we will not sell kunduri to them?"

Northwind raised an eyebrow. "Think you that the factions can be persuaded to that?"

"Not immediately. But the idea can be planted."

Northwind thought for a long moment, too. "Even if the factions agree, we still need to sell kunduri. To the Islanders will it go, and they will sell it to the Raw Men."

"Of course. But at a higher price. And the Raw Men will know that, too. Let us test their resolve over their thunder-weapons." Nyulinga smiled, now. "As for spreading the notion... Make sure that it is discussed widely, in every tavern and celebration of the Azures during the coming football season."

"That will see it widely heard."

"Quite. We can do more to encourage it. Let us see what springs from our first soil, and if need presses, drill more seeds."

This had to work. The Raw Men were here, and were changing the world. They would not be giving up their contact with the Five Rivers and going home. Even if ignorant of some things, perhaps they would bring an age of miracles. The Dance is Endless, but I fear that from now on, the dancers will move to a different tune.

--

[1] The West Lands is the ancient Tjibarri name for the westernmost farmable length of the Murray River, which stretch westward from historical Mildura. Rainfall here is erratic and barely enough to sustain the dryland farming techniques of Aururia.

[2] i.e. the Endless Dance (Jingella), the eternal competition between the eight factions in Tjibarr.

[3] The trees which Nyulinga manages are river red gums (Eucalyptus camaldulensis). This is a large, long-lived tree which produces a distinctive hard red wood which is much prized both historically and allohistorically for decorative purposes and where rot-resistant timber is needed. Red river gums live along watercourses, especially in the Murray-Darling basin, and rely on regular flooding to remain healthy.

[4] To the people of Tjibarr, a northerly wind is a bad omen. Northerly winds blow from the arid heart of the continent, bringing heatwaves and the worst conditions for bushfires. Even when they do not fan bushfires, northerly winds lack any moisture or rain, and are sometimes strong enough to damage crops.

--

Thoughts?
 
A trade war with the Dutch is about the best thing they'll come to getting the upper hand, but historically Europeans had a tendency to open markets by force when they could. This could easily turn into another war.
 
Awesome work as always, I really like that we got a little intro into the everyday life work of our perspective character before setting up the main exchange, it makes the world feel more lived in, gives us more familiarity with the world, character and general beliefs. Also yes, thank goodness for sustainable farming practices, though it is odd to see a wealthy person advocating for such things XD

I loved the spy in manner, attitude, and their sense of humor, hah! Seriously though it was a really cool exchange between the two, the politics, the intelligent and deduction, a mix of business and familiarity in their tones and words, it was a great exchange and their views on what is being bought VS what they deem it worth and the market overall was really cool. The medical stuff was super solid and good to read, ouch poor dead people, and the plan is an interesting and clever if risky one, kudos on another great chapter!
 
A trade war with the Dutch is about the best thing they'll come to getting the upper hand, but historically Europeans had a tendency to open markets by force when they could. This could easily turn into another war.
Good luck reaching Tjibarr when the Dutch are kill-on-sight within Yadji lands, though.

The more likely thing to throw off this plan is the arrival of the English, and with them the ability to play them and the Dutch against each other.
 
Good luck reaching Tjibarr when the Dutch are kill-on-sight within Yadji lands, though.

The more likely thing to throw off this plan is the arrival of the English, and with them the ability to play them and the Dutch against each other.

Oh, you know, I hadn't thought of that. Man, I actually like the idea that the Australians could manage to outmaneuver Europeans for a little while ITTL.
 
Unfortunately even playing the Europeans against each other and bolstering state resources with material from other colonial powers did not save hundreds of nations and polities from their ultimate conquest.

Sufficent military potency to ward off causual conquest and dictates from a gunboat and the posssssion of gunpowder and steel, despite how expensive it is, is usually only the easiest and most shallow layer of adaption and resistance. As seen in most classic colonial expeditions where in a straight up fight and head to head fight most native armies can hold their own but are crushed on a strategic level by the dependencies developed in native institutions, the gathering of native collaberators and auxiliaries, the slow trickle of comprehensive knowledge and good stock leading to poor maintaince and quickly exhausted supplies, and the cheating bastards granting their armies greater mobility and stamina not only through horseflesh and mighty ships but also through queer half-understood financial wizardry back home.

No matter how strong your prepared defensive ground, how bloodied you get fighting foreign merchant-adventurers and mercenaries, how large your banners grow, or how strongly you have devastated their clients and entrepots, somehow you still lose anyway to some middling bureaucrat who bought their commission.
 
A trade war with the Dutch is about the best thing they'll come to getting the upper hand, but historically Europeans had a tendency to open markets by force when they could. This could easily turn into another war.
It could turn into another war, but this is one of those occasions where comparisons need to be drawn between different eras and different trading companies. The Dutch or English East India Companies would certainly launch a trade war if they judged it in their best interests to do so, but they also made accommodations with local powers where it was more convenient or cheaper. While there is some risk for the Tjibarri that the Dutch might say "screw this, we're sending in the mercenaries", there's a greater likelihood that the Dutch response would be along the lines of "sure, we'll sell, but give us this land here and certain other trade privileges."

With the Dutch and English East India Companies, although they ended up controlling very large swathes of territory, they usually started by acquiring an interest or an outpost in one location, then very gradually expanding from there (with some setbacks). So the greater risk to the Tjibarri is not so much facing an outright war of conquest - although that's not impossible - but than the Dutch will establish a wedge and then gradually push from there.

Awesome work as always, I really like that we got a little intro into the everyday life work of our perspective character before setting up the main exchange, it makes the world feel more lived in, gives us more familiarity with the world, character and general beliefs. Also yes, thank goodness for sustainable farming practices, though it is odd to see a wealthy person advocating for such things XD

I loved the spy in manner, attitude, and their sense of humor, hah! Seriously though it was a really cool exchange between the two, the politics, the intelligent and deduction, a mix of business and familiarity in their tones and words, it was a great exchange and their views on what is being bought VS what they deem it worth and the market overall was really cool. The medical stuff was super solid and good to read, ouch poor dead people, and the plan is an interesting and clever if risky one, kudos on another great chapter!
Glad you liked it. I try to show different perspectives on the world, including in this case how Tjibarri land management practices are quite different to those being practiced elsewhere at the time.

Good luck reaching Tjibarr when the Dutch are kill-on-sight within Yadji lands, though.

The more likely thing to throw off this plan is the arrival of the English, and with them the ability to play them and the Dutch against each other.
Oh, you know, I hadn't thought of that. Man, I actually like the idea that the Australians could manage to outmaneuver Europeans for a little while ITTL.
Yes, it's worth noting that this chapter took place a couple of years before the Nuyts invasion of the Yadji ended in less-than-promising fashion. This post is the start of a sequence which shows more of what was happening in Tjibarr. It's safe to say that events amongst the Yadji will affect how the Tjibarri plans play out, and how they need to be modified.

Unfortunately even playing the Europeans against each other and bolstering state resources with material from other colonial powers did not save hundreds of nations and polities from their ultimate conquest.

Sufficent military potency to ward off causual conquest and dictates from a gunboat and the posssssion of gunpowder and steel, despite how expensive it is, is usually only the easiest and most shallow layer of adaption and resistance. As seen in most classic colonial expeditions where in a straight up fight and head to head fight most native armies can hold their own but are crushed on a strategic level by the dependencies developed in native institutions, the gathering of native collaberators and auxiliaries, the slow trickle of comprehensive knowledge and good stock leading to poor maintaince and quickly exhausted supplies, and the cheating bastards granting their armies greater mobility and stamina not only through horseflesh and mighty ships but also through queer half-understood financial wizardry back home.

No matter how strong your prepared defensive ground, how bloodied you get fighting foreign merchant-adventurers and mercenaries, how large your banners grow, or how strongly you have devastated their clients and entrepots, somehow you still lose anyway to some middling bureaucrat who bought their commission.
There's a couple of things to consider in terms of colonialism and the potential fate of nations.

Firstly, nineteenth and early twentieth century colonialism needs to be distinguished from earlier periods because Europe at that stage was going through significant industrialisation, which greatly enhanced the resources available for colonial escapades. Most of the colonies which Europeans formed in this period actually ended up costing them money. They were able to sustain these financial losses because of their own growing economies (both in industrial resources and financial systems), but were also motivated by a sense of competition with other (European) colonial powers, which meant that they were motivated to keep going and keep pushing everywhere.

Secondly, there is a broad spectrum of possible fates of nations targeted by colonialism. On one end of the spectrum you have Japan as the classic example which first said "Piss off Europeans, you're only trading with us on our terms and we're not even letting you onto our mainland", and which then successfully adopted chosen European technologies. Near to that you have Thailand, which lost some territory but which managed to maintain an independent existence (with the brief interruption of post-WW2 occupation), which was managed by playing off European powers against each other.

Further down that spectrum you get the more complex case of India. There, what was interesting was that so long as there were multiple European powers trading with India, the local rulers usually did a good job of playing the colonial powers off against each other, particularly the British and the French. Things fell apart for them when the British managed to drive the French out of India, and other colonial powers were reduced to a few designated enclaves. After that, it became impossible for the local rulers to find other outside allies, and so the British gradually took over the subcontinent.

Further down the spectrum still, of course, are the many examples of where even initially successful resistance failed.

What that means for the potential fate of Aururia, of course, is that there are some plausible cases for where the continent, or parts of it, hold off European colonial powers, but that there are no guarantees. Their potential fate is best if there are multiple European powers around which never manage to get the upper hand. And even if they manage to hold off the first stages of European colonialism, there will be a whole fresh set of challenges once industrialisation starts to spread across Europe.
 
Lands of Red and Gold #67: New Partners in the Dance
Lands of Red and Gold #67: New Partners in the Dance

"Keep your eyes on the sun and you will not see the shadows."
- Tjibarri proverb

--

From: "The Proxy Wars: Colonialism and Conflict in Aururia"
"Volume 1: Preparing the Ground"
Chief Editor: Proximity Smathost.
Editors & Translators: Demitri Leinfellner, Florian Vandermeer, Sebastian Doyle, & Jeera Kunanyi.

Introduction.

The conflicts that engulfed much of Aururia during the mid-seventeenth century were known to the European colonialists as the Proxy Wars. They viewed these conflicts as wars between native pawns of the main European protagonists, principally the VOC [Dutch East India Company] and EIC [English East India Company]. To them, and to much of subsequent historiography, these conflicts were created and driven by agendas of company directors in London and Amsterdam, with the Powers successfully agitating the natives to follow their lead.

A more considered view, however, can be found through the primary sources of the time...

*

The Surprise Annal

Preface

(by Demitri Leinfellner)

The Surprise Annal (Jeera Julam) chronicles the history of the main Plirite temple at Warrala [Wemen, Victoria], and some events of the surrounding town. Many Plirite temples in the Five Rivers wrote annals which were reminiscent of those of ancient Rome. Each temple's annal recorded significant events that happened in the temple or the surrounding region, and sometimes recorded news or rumours that were reported from further away.

The Surprise Annal is unusual in that the Warrala temple had a tradition of recording events that were julam, a word with nuances of meaning that include "surprising", "unexpected", or "out of the ordinary". Noteworthy events within the temple were recorded in the same fashion as that of other temple annals, but events from the town or broader kingdom were only included if they were somehow surprising.

For example, the only years when the Surprise Annal records the winner of the annual football competition at the capital city, Tjibarr, were those years when the winner was not one of the favourite teams. If the winner was one of the expected teams, which generally speaking meant the top two or three ranked teams from the previous year, then this would not be recorded in the annal.

The original version of the Surprise Annal at the Warrala temple is now lost, although it is believed to have been maintained until at least 1660. Two partial copies survive, due to the tradition that when a new temple was founded, it would copy its parent temple's annal up until the date of the new temple's founding, then create a new annal with its own entries from that date. The Peetja Annal is based on the original Surprise Annal until 1646, while the Tjomee Annal follows the Surprise Annal until 1589...

1633
(Translator's Note: Then as now, Plirite religious calendars start on the southern hemisphere autumn equinox [1], so this entry covers the time from 21 March 1633 to 20 March 1634)

In this year, came learned Venerable Brother Wiratjuri hither over sea from the Temple of the Five Winds on the Island, and sojourned at our temple for the Cycle of Bunya Nuts (2-13 April) to give counsel to the brothers and sisters.

In the same year, came hither one Bunjil from Yarralinga [Hamley Bridge, South Australia], who was brother to the wife of one who ruled there, to Tjibarr of the Lakes [i.e. the capital city itself], and spoke to the king, and attended a match of football to watch the Reds whom he favoured; whence he proceeded downriver.

(Translator's Note: The Whites won the annual football tournament in this year, but they were among the favourites, ranked second the previous year, so in keeping with their usual practice, the priests of Warrala did not mention the winners.)

When he was about a mile or more above Warrala, he put on his mail, and so did all his companions: and they proceeded to town. When they came hither, they resolved to break their fast wherever they wished. Then came one of Bunjil's companions, who would claim food at the house of a master of a family against his will; but having wounded the master of the house, was slain by sword. Then was Bunjil quickly into battle, his companions with him, and they slew the master of the family under his own roof, and wounded several other men besides.

The townsmen slew six of Bunjil's companions, and Bunjil and his other companions ran to Tapiwal [Robinvale], where the king was then residing, and he was wroth with the townsmen. He called council with the sentinel [2] of the Greens and two land controllers of the Grays, which two factions most of the townsmen supported, and determined that six noroons [emus] and a half-pouch of kunduri should be given to Bunjil by the townsmen; while a footballer of the Reds was found to counsel Bunjil and his companions against excess...

This same year were the quandongs most bountiful in the harvest, more so than any time in the memory of man, so that the farmers had more than they could barter away for any good purpose, and during the Cycle of Life (16-27 November) called a celebration in the town, and brought in all the quandongs that could not be traded, and the children and townswomen were given to eat as much as they could. Whereas the nuts [edible seed kernels] of the quandong were returned, and in respect traded downriver to a broker in Jugara [Victor Harbor] who found the Islanders most grateful, and returned to the town much gum cider.

This same year came blister-rash (chickenpox) to the kingdom and the town. The physicians called for quarantine, but the blister-rash spread beyond all excluded towns. More Warrala townsfolk died of the blister-rash than anyone knows of any sickness before; more than swelling-fever (mumps) or the red cough (tuberculosis) or the worst year of the Waiting Death (Marnitja). The king died in Tjibarr of the Lakes, and Guneewin became third of that name to be cast in silver [3].

(Translator's Note: The relatively brief reference to what was a massive epidemic is typical of the style of Plirite annals. Events are merely described and not given any particular weight over each other; in the original language, the account of Bunjil's passage and its aftermath is three times as long as the explanation of chickenpox. The first four infectious diseases known to have reached Aururia by 1635 (syphilis, tuberculosis, mumps and then chickenpox) are estimated to have killed more than ten percent of the population; a million people or more, depending on which estimate of the pre-contact population was correct).

In this year died Eldest Brother Kalaree of the temple, and Tjuri became Eldest. Nine brothers and three sisters joined their kin (died) during the year.

*

Letter 29

Azure Day, Cycle of Falling Stars, 5th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third [4] (2 August 1637)

To Murranbulla of the Reds from your friend Nyulinga of the Azures [Light Blues]: May your days know honour and good fortune. May your nights know good sleep. May your footballers be favoured whenever they do not play the Azures.

Refusal of the Raw Men to trade us their weapons is an insult to all who have goods to sell. They have not listened to reason, not in all the ten years since their ships first called at our ports. Where remonstration has failed, manoeuvre must be used to convince them.

Single action will never make the Nedlandj Association renounce its ban. Joint action is required; for a time, all the partners in the Dance must step in the same direction. We must tell the Raw Men that until they agree to sell their weapons, and at a price which is fair, then we will withhold all kunduri from them. It is the trade good they value above all, and it is needed to bring them to accord.

The embargo must be collective to succeed. In the short-term, it will bring more costs, but not unacceptable, since we can sell to the Islanders, who will sell to the Association for a greater profit, and more cost to the Raw Men. This cost we must tolerate. The Blues [Dark Blues] and Blacks have voiced their support to me, if we can find agreement elsewhere. The Blues agreeing means that the Greens are reticent, but this can be addressed if every other faction moves in step.

Joint action is required, anathema though this may be to the Dance. Once the Raw Men have conceded that trade must flow, the factions can return to their ancient habits, but we must do what is necessary first.

(Translator's notes: Such open language is unusual in a letter between members of different Gunnagal factions, who usually adopted a much more circumspect style to discuss political manoeuvres. The plain wording adopted means either that this letter was public confirmation of an already agreed plan between the parties, which the author intended the recipient to circulate unofficially as part of further covert negotiations to gain support, or that the author expected the letter to be intercepted and spread widely to build a broader public pressure campaign to bring about the desired collective action.)

*

Letter 34

Wombat Day, Cycle of Life, 5th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third (22 November 1637)

(Translator's note: According to Tjibarri protocol, a letter addressed to the sentinel of a faction was the way to write to the all of the notable members of a faction, even though in most cases, the sentinel had no real political power within the faction.)

To Waminung, Sentinel of the Golds, from your comrade (i.e. fellow Gold supporter) Nabool: May your days in this life be long. May you know good health and vigour. May our footballers triumph always over all rivals.

I hear your requests that more must be done to support our beloved Golds of Renown. Too many players of talent have been lost to blister-rash or swelling-fever or sorrow, and those who would replace them must be searched out and trained.

People who might attend to cheer our players are fewer in number. It saddens me to hear that there were unfilled seats in the last game between Golds and Reds. The tribulations are growing throughout the kingdom.

While I am filled with pain to write it, I cannot provide the further silver or musk you have asked for to support the Golds. My estates are afflicted with flood, and lack enough workers to make repairs or harvest what remains in the fields before rot begins. Those of my neighbours suffer even more, for the new land controllers are young after their fathers and uncles joined their kin, and know not yet how to manage the land with one eye to what may come. (Translator's note: A Gunnagal idiom which means roughly "look both to what must be done now, and to what is needed for the longer term).

*

Letter 35

Eagle Day, Cycle of Fire, 6th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third (18 May 1638)

To Magool Wallira of the Blues from Nyulinga of the Azures: May your dreams be free of nightmares. May you find the harmony you seek.

(Translator's Note: Diplomatic letters in Aururian civilizations had a number of large stock phrases which could be used as openings, and Tjibarr was no exception. The reference to harmony indicates that Magool Wallira was among the minority of Gunnagal who followed Plirism. The lack of well-wishes to his footballers also indicates that the Blues land controller (aristocrat) was among those for whom faction membership was for political and economic reasons, not sport.)

Further truth has been revealed; the nature of things is now clearer. The new Raw Men who visited Jugara, these Inglidj, are no minor splinter of the Nedlandj. They are a nation of their own. So the Raw Men have factions too, their associations, and nations also. If not rivals now, they may become so.

The rules have changed. Peetanootj [5] brought war to the Yadji, and his failure is our threat and opportunity. The Nedlandj are driven from the Land of the Five Directions; the Inglidj now have the monopoly there. Raw Men weapons and their makers have been captured by the Yadji, and Peetanootj is now in the kingdom [i.e. within Tjibarr's borders].

What had been prepared has been overtaken. While successful so far, it has been overtaken. Plans in travois must be unmade; new plans can be formed.

(Translator's Note: This is a circumspect reference to earlier attempts by the Azures aristocrat to establish a coalition (see letters 27 and 29) who would proclaim a kunduri embargo unless the Dutch East India Company agreed to trade in weapons. With Pieter Nuyts and fellow captives in Tjibarr, some Dutch captives in Durigal [the Yadji lands] and English traders now likely to arm the Yadji, the Dutch restrictions on trading weapons were now largely superfluous.)

I invite you to consider these matters with me and several friends.

*

Letter 48

(Translator's Note: This letter was written in Dutch, and is the first official communication between a Tjibarri monarch and a European body. It is believed to have been composed by Wemba of the Whites, probably with assistance from one or more of the Dutch captives he retained from Nuyts' failed conquest.

Three copies are known to have been sent, one to Jugara to await the arrival of the next Dutch ship, one to the Island to be sent to the Dutch trading outpost at the Mutjing city-state of Luyandi [Port Kenny, South Australia], and one via the Nuttana for them to deliver it directly to Batavia on their next trading run to the East Indies.)

Weemiraga's Day, Cycle of the Sun, 7th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third (19 December 1639)

To Anthony van Diemen, Governor of the Indies in Batavia, and through you to the Lords Seventeen of your East India Company. May your Three-fold God favour you in all of your endeavours throughout your life.

... Your Company has chosen to refuse us trade in your guns. While your reasons may have been valid in former times, the world is no longer as it was. The English Company has permission to trade with the Yadji, and has begun to sell them weapons.

The Yadji hate us with a vigour that stretches back centuries. With their new weapons, they will soon start war with us. If the port of Jugara falls, then you will lose all trade with the Five Rivers, particularly in the kunduri which grows nowhere else. The Yadji will trade only with the English, and your Company will be the weaker for it.

It is time to lift this restriction, and trade freely with us your guns, your powder, your cannon, for fair prices...

(Signed with nine signatories, the monarch and a representative of each faction)

King Guneewin of the Nine-Fold Crown
Pila Dadi, Premier Land Controller, for the Whites
Waminung, Sentinel of the Golds
Gatjibee, Lifetime Champion (Footballer) of the Greens
Kaalong, Sentinel of the Blacks
Gumaring, First Speaker of the Azures
Tjee Burra, Senior Physician, for the Grays
Magool Wallira, in harmony, for the Blues
Murranbulla, Land Controller, for the Reds

--

[1] Most agricultural cultures throughout history have considered the year to start during winter or spring. In Aururia, the nature of perennial farming and the particular crops grown mean that there is not the same connection to new growth in spring. In the Aururian farming cycle, winter is not a dead time of the year, since many of the crops (wattles) flower during winter, and the first harvests (red yams and murnong) can begin in autumn, not in summer. So the Aururian calendars are based on the autumn equinox as the start of the year.

[2] Sentinel is the usual translation of the Gunnagal word for the person in a faction who is notionally responsible for choosing which players are selected into the football squad for the season. In some factions, the sentinel is a politically important figure who conducts negotiations with other factions over many matters (commerce, military, land control), not just football; in other factions, the sentinel is merely a agent who selects football players, and whose only negotiations with other factions is over exchanges of players and the like.

[3] Part of the investiture of a new monarch in Tjibarr is to have a statuette of them cast in silver and placed in the Thousand-Fold Palace. The statuette is a symbol of the living monarch, not a permanent reminder; after the monarch's death, the silver will be melted down and recast into a new statuette for the new monarch.

[4] In the Gunnagal calendar, the start of each year is fixed at the autumn equinox. The period from the crowning of a new monarch to the next autumn equinox is considered the monarch's first year, even if it only lasts a single day (or even one hour).

[5] i.e. Pieter Nuyts, the would-be Dutch conquistador who had just failed in his bid to do a Cortes and become ruler of the Yadji realm. See post #44 (and its predecessors).

--

Thoughts?
 
A fascinating post!

I found the method by which you told this particular part of the story to be an insightful one, the various letters and historical analyse were really engaging and work fantastically as a framing device, allowing the reader to jump through the story quite comfortably and get a real idea for what is going on while still carrying character and tone.

Very interesting to see how and why the guns started coming in, the negotiations in secret and via the public discourse utilizing spies to spread information and the threat of lost trade, all so insightful and well thought out, kudos!
 
One question, however: How come they haven't managed to acquire the technical knowledge to make their own firearms? It's not as if the recipe for gunpowder was a state secret, and surely there must be at least some Dutchmen whose tongues could be loosened with silver.

Although I suppose a request to purchase several hundred tons of sulphur might arouse some suspicion, even if they claimed it was for the Royal Alchemist or something.
 
Best guess is that they know roughly how to do it, but would prefer to have actual examples at hand to study rather than go through the difficult and dangerous process of figuring them out just from hearsay.

Also there's the matter of having enough usable weapons to keep the Yadji at bay. Being able to make their own firearms in quantity ten years from now would be highly useful, but the Gunnagal states also need to have guns in the next two or three years so that the Yadji don't roll them up in five.
 
A fascinating post!

I found the method by which you told this particular part of the story to be an insightful one, the various letters and historical analyse were really engaging and work fantastically as a framing device, allowing the reader to jump through the story quite comfortably and get a real idea for what is going on while still carrying character and tone.

Very interesting to see how and why the guns started coming in, the negotiations in secret and via the public discourse utilizing spies to spread information and the threat of lost trade, all so insightful and well thought out, kudos!
Glad you liked it. I'm always trying ways to show different perspectives on the world of this timeline.

One question, however: How come they haven't managed to acquire the technical knowledge to make their own firearms? It's not as if the recipe for gunpowder was a state secret, and surely there must be at least some Dutchmen whose tongues could be loosened with silver.

Although I suppose a request to purchase several hundred tons of sulphur might arouse some suspicion, even if they claimed it was for the Royal Alchemist or something.
Because learning to make your own firearms is a lot harder than it is portrayed in a lot of alternate worlds, games and the like. Historically speaking, there are many examples of peoples who could easily learn to use imported firearms, but never managed to make their own. Building them requires a good knowledge of both metallurgy and chemistry, and even then cannot be figured out quickly. (And this applies to most technology transfer, really.)

Take the example of Japan. Japan had metallurgy roughly equal to Europe at the time, and decent chemistry too. But despite having access to samples of imported muskets, Japanese metalsmiths kept trying and failing to make firearms until they got an imported European expert to show them exactly how it was done. They went on to develop a good firearms industry after that (and later largely abandoned them), but could not do the initial duplication without specific advice, despite the roughly similar technology.

When the metallurgy and/or chemistry isn't at the right level, even imported advisers can't help. Take the Maori in New Zealand, who had abundant (imported) firearms, which they could use very effectively. But they had no real metallurgical or chemistry tradition. They did have a couple of thousand of European advisers (nicknamed Pakeha Maori), who ranged from slaves to trusted advisers. Even with those, the Maori did not learn to make their own firearms.

In the case of Tjibarr (and the Yadji, for that matter), their metallurgy is not near the level of sixteenth-century Japan. Their knowledge of some aspects of chemistry is very good in some respects (knowledge of dyes and mordants, for example), but they don't know how to make saltpetre and have no native sources of sulphur to rely on. (Charcoal, now, they can make better than Europeans, but that's another story.)

So there is no way they are learning to make a decent quantity of firearms in ten years, or even twenty years. They can learn eventually yes, if they survive in the interim, but it won't be quick. They will need to generally develop their metallurgy and chemistry first, among other things.

Best guess is that they know roughly how to do it, but would prefer to have actual examples at hand to study rather than go through the difficult and dangerous process of figuring them out just from hearsay.

Also there's the matter of having enough usable weapons to keep the Yadji at bay. Being able to make their own firearms in quantity ten years from now would be highly useful, but the Gunnagal states also need to have guns in the next two or three years so that the Yadji don't roll them up in five.
They do have a couple of smuggled examples, but not many, and no-one who can show them the intricacies of making them.

And yes, in the short-term, survival is the key. If they can't import firearms, they will be at a huge disadvantage against the Yadji. Which, as they quite rightly pointed out, is also to the disadvantage of the Dutch.
 
Glad you liked it. I'm always trying ways to show different perspectives on the world of this timeline.
You do an excellent job of it, kudos!

Because learning to make your own firearms is a lot harder than it is portrayed in a lot of alternate worlds, games and the like.
So basically guns are really weird and even when you have the tools to figure out how to make them there's so many weird esoteric jumps in the creation process doing so even intentionally is quite difficult?
 
So basically guns are really weird and even when you have the tools to figure out how to make them there's so many weird esoteric jumps in the creation process doing so even intentionally is quite difficult?
Basically, seventeenth-century firearms were the product of a lot of separate threads of technological development, and a few different conceptual leaps along the way. They aren't something that can just be reverse-engineered by someone grabbing a couple of muskets and declaring the problem solved.

For the Japanese, who had most of the requisite technology, the actual problem was (IIRC) the firing mechanism, which wasn't something that they could easily work out how to duplicate. Their overall technological level was close enough that with knowledgeable assistance, they could work it out, ie they needed an actual gunsmith, not just a random European who had fired a gun.

Of course, the Japanese were heirs to a metallurgical tradition working with iron which stretched back a couple of thousand years or more. The Aururian states have been working iron for a few centuries at most, and in the case of the Gunnagal, only about 250 years. They have a lot of development to catch up on before they can even duplicate a firearm as a one-off sample. Mass-producing them in a way which is cost-competitive with European imports will take a whole lot longer.

The technological gap is not completely insurmountable, given time, dedication, and plenty of samples and assistance. But it is not a quick gap to close, and they will be under considerable pressure from Europeans, both in terms of European-backed states (such as the Yadji) and potentially direct invasion attempts. In one sense they are extremely lucky that Nuyts failed so dramatically, because it gives European trading companies the impression that conquering Aururian states is very hard. That means that the companies are more likely to decide that it's simpler and less risky just to trade with Aururians and push for favourable terms, rather than just trying to bludgeon their way to conquest.
 
Basically, seventeenth-century firearms were the product of a lot of separate threads of technological development, and a few different conceptual leaps along the way. They aren't something that can just be reverse-engineered by someone grabbing a couple of muskets and declaring the problem solved.

For the Japanese, who had most of the requisite technology, the actual problem was (IIRC) the firing mechanism, which wasn't something that they could easily work out how to duplicate. Their overall technological level was close enough that with knowledgeable assistance, they could work it out, ie they needed an actual gunsmith, not just a random European who had fired a gun.

Of course, the Japanese were heirs to a metallurgical tradition working with iron which stretched back a couple of thousand years or more. The Aururian states have been working iron for a few centuries at most, and in the case of the Gunnagal, only about 250 years. They have a lot of development to catch up on before they can even duplicate a firearm as a one-off sample. Mass-producing them in a way which is cost-competitive with European imports will take a whole lot longer.

The technological gap is not completely insurmountable, given time, dedication, and plenty of samples and assistance. But it is not a quick gap to close, and they will be under considerable pressure from Europeans, both in terms of European-backed states (such as the Yadji) and potentially direct invasion attempts. In one sense they are extremely lucky that Nuyts failed so dramatically, because it gives European trading companies the impression that conquering Aururian states is very hard. That means that the companies are more likely to decide that it's simpler and less risky just to trade with Aururians and push for favourable terms, rather than just trying to bludgeon their way to conquest.
That makes a lot of sense, thanks for the breakdown.
 
Lands of Red and Gold #68: Music of the Dance
Lands of Red and Gold #68: Music of the Dance

"They [the Dutch] are not only to lend us their experience but give every assistance to our merchants trading in the East and West Indies, leaving them free to trade on whatever coasts they choose in full security and liberty and to associate with them [French merchants] in their navigation to the said countries."
- Cardinal Richelieu, 1627 (shortly before his death) setting out the conditions that the Dutch would have to accept in exchange for French finance in the Dutch war for independence from Spain

--

Venus's Day, Cycle of the Moon, 8th Year of His Majesty Guneewin the Third (28 February 1641)
Hall of Rainbows [1], Tjibarr of the Lakes [Swan Hill]
Kingdom of Tjibarr

Heat lies heavy in the Hall. Summer is all but gone in the turning of the seasons, but its presence lingers yet. A man who has lived as long as Kaalong develops a feel for the weather. No matter what season the calendar proclaims, the north wind, the time of danger and fire, will dwell in Tjibarr of the Lakes for many days to come.

Inside the Hall, no man forgets what lies outside. The Hall of Rainbows has many qualities, but not those that give coolness during the day. Splendour, yes, that is here in abundance. The Hall is full of marvels that proclaim the triumphs of the factions, most notably the bronzed statues of champion footballers, and other treasures of history passed. Precision, yes, that is here too, from the carefully polished eight-sided table in the centre of the Hall, to the eight equally-sized grand entrances in the centre of each of the eight walls. Ventilation, though, is not a quality that was foremost in the minds of the builders. Heat which enters the Hall lingers long after the daily dying of the sun which gave it birth.

Kaalong maintains his composure as best he can. Thirty-two men have gathered here in the Hall. Four chosen to represent each faction. The best four. Here is the grand chamber which forms the heart of the Endless Dance. Here, those who are permitted to enter are those who are best suited to the Dance.

Of the thirty-two men here, Kaalong likes to think that he is the best Dancer. His talents have won him the post of Sentinel of the Blacks, one of only two factions where the Sentinel is in truth the leading man. More than that, his talents have kept him there. In the Endless Dance, a man soon finds that gaining something is only the prelude; holding what he has won is the true achievement.

For all of his talents, the gap between him and the other Dancers gathered here is not large. A blundering man will soon misstep in the Dance. Even if such a misstep is not fatal, it will be enough to remove a man from consideration for true power.

A man in plain brown clothes enters through the Grays' entrance. "Stand! He comes before you! The Nine-fold King! The Essence of Harmony! He who brings balance to the kingdom! He comes before you! Stand!"

Kaalong smoothly rises to his feet. So does every other man. A king in Tjibarr is no absolute ruler, like the emperor of the Yadji. The emperor of the Yadji has unbounded power over his people. The Yadji ruler can order a man to go bring back a sword to be used for his own execution. No king of Tjibarr has such power. Yet despite that truth, it would be a poor Dancer who failed to show proper respect for the person of the king.

His Majesty Guneewin, third of that name, is a young man, barely thirty, and his youth shows on his smooth-cheeked face. Mostly smooth-cheeked, that is. The king has not grown a beard in the fashion of the barbaric Atjuntja, but hair grows in front of his ears. It runs down both his cheeks, ending just before his lips.

Such is the fashion in Tjibarr this season. A fashion Kaalong has not bothered to follow. He has seen too many summers to be comfortable yielding to the ever-changing demands of fashion. More, he deems it unwise to earn a reputation for being needlessly changeable; being seen as such can only hinder the steps of his Dance.

The king enters through the grand entrance of the Grays. That choice of entrance has been scrupulously chosen by drawing lots beforehand; Kaalong had one of his retired footballers as witness to the choosing. The king walks slowly around the Hall in a full circle, pausing for the same length of time at each of the grand entrances. All accords with custom. No monarch of Tjibarr who openly shows too much preference for one faction will hold the throne for much longer.

His Majesty takes an ordinary seat – no thrones here, in the Hall of Rainbows – aligned between the table's centre and the Grays' grand entrance.

After the king sits, the faction leaders do the same. Four at each side of the table, with no servants or hangers-on in hearing distance.

"Let us consider what must be done," the king says, speaking first as protocol requires. Ritual words, but with import far above their usual meaning. Any full gathering of the factions is time for politics, but every year that passes now makes for a more delicate balance.

The last full gathering of the factions saw the production of a letter to the Nedlandj Association's rulers. Now the factions now must decide what other steps Tjibarr will take. The Endless Dance moves ever on, but now it does so across a much larger scale.

To any normal man of Tjibarr, the discussion which follows is unusually quiet and reserved. Most meetings of Gunnagal are times for loud interjection, for argumentation, quibbling, and laborious exploration of individual points. Sometimes, Kaalong thinks that most Gunnagal seek to convince as much by volume as by reason.

This is no meeting of ordinary Gunnagal. The best Dancers are well-seasoned, and astute. They know when to be silent. They know when to listen, and when to think. They know not to speak unless they have something worth saying, or until they want people to think that they have nothing worth saying. They can read volumes in any speech, in what is said, in how it is said, and in what is not said. Language of the body can speak more than words which pass the lips. The Dance has many facets, many levels of manoeuvre, and many men who need to think.

Only the best Dancers are in the room, now.

Silence descends around the table for a long moment. Further sign that this is no casual meeting of Gunnagal. Most times, five or six men would already being speaking over the top of each other.

Waminung, Sentinel of the Golds, is first to offer an opinion. "War comes soon. We have held Jugara [2] for over twenty years. The Yadji will not tolerate our control for much longer. Only their mad emperor and succession war has held them from acting for so long."

"The succession has cost them much," says Gumaring, First Speaker of the Azures. A man who obsesses much with status, yet is astute regardless.

"And won them much," says Murranbulla, one of the more senior land controllers [aristocrats] among the Reds. "Veteran soldiers who know how to fight. Generals who know how to command. That Bidwadjari understands battle like any seasoned Dancer understands politics."

"I hear that the Yadji have fewer soldiers now than when we drove them out of Jugara," says Tjee Burra of the Grays. A man who rejoices in the title of senior physician, which is true, but only the smallest part of what he does. Tjee Burra has very good hearing, especially for events within Durigal [the Yadji lands].

"So do we," says Magool Wallira. Who represents the Blues, in some manner, but in a way which is as ambiguous as any of the manoeuvres of that most troublesome of factions. Magool has neither seniority nor the greatest prestige nor the greatest holdings amongst Blue land controllers. One can never tell whether Magool makes the decisions or if he is a convenient front for the true architects amongst the Blues. "The plagues have cost us much."

A most cutting reference, that. His Majesty only holds the throne because of the latest of those plagues. A reminder of that could be an accident. Could. Kaalong tries to watch everyone's reaction, and has to settle for noticing that Pila Dadi has shown no reaction at all. A sign of great composure, or a sign that the Whites' greatest land controller awaited that remark?

"This is not the time to list how many soldiers and factionaries can be found within the lands of the Nine-fold Crown," His Majesty says calmly. If he is offended, it does not carry into his voice.

Kaalong says, "Let us ask instead if war comes with the Yadji, what can we gain from it?" An obvious question, but a useful one. Staying silent too long in the Hall carries its own risks, from those who would see plots even where there are none, and from those who would interpret quiet as weakness.

Murranbulla shrugs. "We hold as much land as we can, almost. If we push further, we may take land for a time, but could we hold it?"

"If we weaken the Yadji hold in the Red Country [3], it will be harder for them to push back to the Nyalananga [River Murray]," says Bili Narra, a senior Gold land controller.

"Better to consolidate what we hold in the Copper Coast," Murranbulla says.

"What do you think we've been doing for the last twenty years?" says Waminung. Support for his fellow Gold member, or a sign of dissension within the faction? Or a bid to make the other factions think there is a rift within the Golds, and so see what advances are offered to each?

"Taking advantage of the Yadji's internal distractions to manoeuvre amongst factions to gain the best lands. So it always is," says Magool Wallira. Is that a hint of humour in his voice?

"What has happened, has happened," says Pila Dadi of the Whites. "Better to ask if the Yadji are in a condition to advance into the Copper Coast."

"They have more soldiers than us," Kaalong says. He wishes he knew exactly how many more. He is no Gray, to have ears everywhere. Yet what his sources in Durigal can find out suggests that the Yadji have suffered even more from the blister-rash [chickenpox] than the Five Rivers. "It is always so, unless we can persuade both Gutjanal and Yigutji [the inland Five Rivers kingdoms] to stand with us."

"Numbers are not everything. Or the Yadji would never lose the Copper Coast," says Gumaring. The Azures' First Speaker's gaze shifts to the king, just for a moment.

"Truth. Soldiers in the Copper Coast are ever hard for the Yadji to support," Waminung says.

"Can the Yadji support their troops better with their new horses?" says Gatjibee of the Greens. The greatest former footballer here, he had a reputation for devious tactics on the field, which has carried over into his new role as representative for his faction in the greater Dance.

"They have few horses. Or so I hear," says Tjee Burra.

"Quite. They ate most of those they captured," Magool Wallira says, amusement plain in his voice this time. "Short-sighted of them."

"Ask what we can do with our horses," Murranbulla says. The Red land controller looks across the table to the four White representatives.

None of the Whites respond immediately.

Bili Narra says, "These new beasts can carry much. If we have them, we can push into the Red Country and bring more food with us."

"Or the Yadji will get their own from their Inglidj allies, and move more men and supplies along their roads. Whatever else may be said of the Yadji, they are master road builders," says Gumaring.

"So in war, we must rip up their roads?" Magool Wallira asks.

"Most importantly, we must stop their building teams making new roads. Such as one straight to Tjibarr," Kaalong says. He watches the Whites representatives again when he speaks, but sees nothing. Most quiet on their part, since so far the Whites are the only faction to have horses.

"Never mind what the Yadji can do with horses," Gatjibee says. "Ask what we can do."

That remark produces much turning of heads to Gatjibee. The Greens footballer meets the gaze with a broad smile.

Kaalong watches the Whites instead. It is hard to be sure, amongst such skilled Dancers, but Wemba looks less enthusiastic about the whole discussion of horses. Wemba is the man who secured both Peetanootj [Pieter Nuyts] and the first horses to come to Tjibarr. He has been allowed to keep them because he held them first, and because the factions could not – and cannot – agree who will be rewarded with the horses if they were taken off Wemba. The Whites will have plans of their own for horses, surely. No matter that Pila Dadi leads the Whites, Wemba will be the one making plans. He is the one who must be watched carefully.

Gatjibee says, "Horses can move goods quickly by road. So we know from what the Nedlandj tell us, and what Peetanootj did in Durigal. So let us build a great road from the Great Bend [4] west across the dry lands, to a port on the farther reaches of the Copper Coast. Taparee [Port Pirie], Nookoonoo [Port Broughton], or perhaps even Dogport [Port Augusta]." He grins widely. Insufferably.

Representatives of four factions try to speak at once. His Majesty holds up a hand. "Murranbulla spoke first... though it was a close-run thing."

Muranbulla says, "If horses can run across the dry lands, across a road to a new port, that will reshape the balance."

"Jugara and the Bitter Lake [Lake Alexandrina] will no longer be the sole route for trade with the Island and the Raw Men," Gumaring says. "If the Yadji take Jugara, we will no longer be cut off."

"Better, if the Yadji try to advance as far as Dogport, then we can advance along the Nyalananga to threaten their supplies," says Waminung.

"Best of all, we can still obtain the Nedlandj weapons even if the Yadji still hold Jugara," Kaalong says.

From there, the discussion flows into a more general one of the consequences of the new horses, the muskets – if those could ever be obtained – and of how to face the Yadji threat. Or so it appears on the surface. As Kaalong is all too well aware, much more is being discussed beneath these topics. He strains his awareness to identify what he can. He looks for the hints, the meaning in silences, and in half-spoken sounds. He strives to understand what each means, whether they be truth or deliberately spoken impression.

Each of the factions does the same, he knows. They watch where each other stands, and what ideas each faction advances. Each faction, each representative, seeks what can be found for their own advantage, as part of the broader struggle. Many offer ideas as if for the first time, presenting them as new inspiration. Most of those ideas will have been heard earlier, by some or perhaps all of the factions. The ground has to be prepared. No Dancer takes his first step onto the dance floor without studying that floor first.

Kaalong tries to watch each faction. Apart from Wemba and the rest of the Whites, those he observes most are the Azures. That faction has manoeuvred much of late, under Gumaring their First Speaker and Nyulinga who provides the ideas. They had plans of their own for a kunduri embargo that would force the Nedlandj to trade their weapons.

The outcome has worked, at least in part, but not as Nyulinga had planned. The outlaws' raid into Durigal and the weapons the Yadji captured there have forced the Nedlandj to trade weapons. Which is far from what Nyulinga had sought: a compact with the Azures at the head, bargaining favourable terms with the Raw Men. They are resentful still, surely, and will be making fresh plans. Another faction to be watched.

In time, the discussion shifts to the inland kingdoms of Gutjanal and Yigutji. The age-old kingdoms who are allies as often as enemies in the ever-changing steps of the Dance.

Gumaring says, "Of one thing we can be sure: Yigutji and Gutjanal can never reach the sea to trade for Raw Man weapons."

Magool Wallira says, "Quite. They are isolated. Most of what they want to sell must pass through our lands. Now, too, so must what they most dearly need to buy."

Bili Narra smiles. "They will rely on us. We can threaten them. Advance on them."

Murranbulla nods. "Gutjanal, or perhaps both, could buy weapons off the Yadji. If the Yadji agree. But why would they not, if it will give them allies against us?"

While obvious signs are few, resentment forms in many others around the table. Not just for Murranbulla speaking a voice of caution. As always in the Dance, there is more to the tale.

The Reds won the football in the season just passed. As always, that has brought them more glory, and some of the people, and perhaps a few land controllers, changing to their faction. Along with more generous support from the land controllers aligned to them. Equally, the victory has brought jealousy, more distrust, and more opposition both covert and overt from land controllers of other factions, in all matters pursued by the Reds. Such is the Dance.

Waminung says, "Moving the guns by road from the Yadji lands will be much harder than moving them by water is for us."

Pila Dadi says, "We could make the inland kingdoms dependent on us. Sell weapons to them, for a good price. They will need fresh powder to come from us. They will not be able to turn on us so easily, for they will find themselves unable to use the weapons they would now rely on."

That comment provokes a round of silence; a rare achievement even amongst so accomplished Dancers as here. Perhaps even rarer here; the lingering silence shows that every man here recognises a good idea when he hears one.

Kaalong does not want that acknowledgement to go so far, so he adds, "Sell some to the hill-men, too. They can always find uses for weapons."

Magool Wallira laughs. "The Nguril and Kaoma [5]? Oh, their only problem will be deciding whether to use them on the Yadji or the inland kingdoms."

"If we can sell weapons through the eastern kingdoms," Murranbulla says.

"With the prices the guns will command, surely that can be managed," Tjee Burra says.

Several men shake their heads. With that, and the effects of Pila Dadi's comments fading, most of the Dancers return to their usual air of silent thoughtfulness. That is the most common appearance of an experienced Dancer. Unless, that is, they decide that acting like an ill-spoken, status-obsessed, typical loudmouth Gunnagal suits their current purpose in a discussion. Or, for the truly subtle, cultivate such an image to ensure that opponents underestimate them.

The talk continues about the needful actions to meet the changes in the world. Until the king holds up a hand and says, "All that this Council has said must be considered. Now I bid you pay me heed to what the kingdom needs."

An ancient phrasing, that, and one best used only by those rulers with the prestige to steer the factions along the royal course. The current monarch lacks that prestige so far, or so Kaalong judges.

King Guneewin continues, "In all of our actions, dissension must be kept between Nedlandj and Inglidj. While we must trade with the Nedlandj alone for now, as circumstances require, we must keep open some communication with the Inglidj. For the alliance of Yadji and Inglidj may shift. The Inglidj must not be driven from the Land forever.

"Better still, we must encourage other Raw Men nations to sail to the Land. Since we must Dance with the Raw Men, we must ensure that they provide more Dancers."

That produces much shaking of heads amongst the Council. In genuine agreement, if Kaalong is any judge, not just superficial acknowledgement for the Nine-fold Crown. This new king may be young, but he is far from a fool.

And that truth, too, will become part of the Dance.

--

[1] The Hall of Rainbows is the tallest building in Tjibarr of the Lakes (the capital city for which the kingdom is named), and its central complex is where the senior representatives of each faction come to meet to resolve issues which concern all factions. Whether the monarch is admitted depends on their personal reputation; a king who has established some credibility as an arbiter may be invited.

[2] Jugara [Victor Harbor, South Australia] is the closest port to the unnavigable mouth of the Nyalananga [River Murray], and is linked to that river by a much-travelled road. Save for a handful of high-value goods traded east and north for spices, most of the produce of the Five Rivers is exported via the Jugara Road. As such, Jugara is the most-contested city on the continent, with Tjibarr and Yadji fighting numerous wars for control of the port and the trade control that comes with it.

[3] The Red Country is the Yadji name for the lands between the Nyalananga and Gurndjit [Portland, Victoria]. This is a fertile, low-lying land [called the Limestone Coast historically] that is ruled by the Yadji but populated by subject ethnicities.

[4] The Great Bend is the Gunnagal name for the point (around modern Morgan, South Australia) where the Nyalananga makes an abrupt change in course, turning from its generally westerly route to a southern course that brings it into the sea about 300 kilometres further south.

[5] The Nguril and Kaoma (hill-men) live in the highlands of the historical Monaro plateau, among the headwaters of the Matjidi [River Murrumbidgee]. They raid both into the Five Rivers, and into the Yadji's eastern provinces.

--

Thoughts?
 
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