Well. That is quite the question, and you immediately note the wording - 'when', not 'if'. Otomo Kairyu fully expects war to break out in the future, even if he doesn't know the specifics. Whether that is because of some particular knowledge or wisdom on his part or simply due to a rampant sense of paranoia, though, you have no idea.
Still, he asked you a question, and refusing to answer an Imperial samurai on a matter such as this is liable to end badly. Thus you take a moment to consider the idea, and reply.
"This may be the Scorpion in me speaking, Otomo-sama, but I suspect that the next war will come from subterfuge." You say slowly. Kairyu looks intrigued, and gestures for you to continue. "So far as I can see, the leaders of most Clans and Families in the Empire understand the need for peace. Some desire it outright, others grudgingly accept it, but after recent events few deny it outright. There are, however, currents of resentment underlying that."
"Such as?" The Imperial says mildly, and you sense that you tread on potentially dangerous ground. The Otomo family is renowned for having... well, not quite a spy network, but certainly a web of informants and friendly ears that spreads across the Empire, rivaled only by that of your own Clan. Talk to subterfuge and resentment would naturally be of interest to anyone who walks in such a world.
"I might say the rebels we have already encountered, and whoever it is that sees fit to back them." You reply, subtly referencing your own intervention in that matter. "Then there are those who suffered greatly in the recent conflicts, and feel the need for justice or revenge. And, of course, there are always those who hunger for the glory that battle could bring."
"Hmm. I would have thought the last case to be the most likely." Kairyu says thoughtfully, a small smile tugging at his lips. "They called the time under the rule of the Hantei the 'Thousand Years of Peace', but I have studied the histories. Rarely did a year go by without a peasant uprising or a border war between the Clans, even before you touch upon the constant bandit groups or the business at the Kaiu Wall."
You nod, aware that prior to the Second Day of Thunder few samurai would have been willing to refer to the Crab's eternal war even in such indirect terms. The return of Fu Leng has changed much.
"If I had to guess among the Clans? I would say the Mantis, Otomo-sama, likely at odds with the Lion." You venture cautiously, seeing the way that your host's eyes sharpen at this. "The Mantis have wealth and power, but their status as a Great Clan is only freshly obtained. There will be many who deny them the respect they feel they are due, and they will seek to prove themselves in response. Wealth alone is not enough, so they might easily seek a military confrontation."
"A plausible enough scenario." Otomo Kairyu allows, looking thoughtful. "Why the Lion, though? If one is seeking a military triumph, the Right Hand would seem a poor choice of opponents."
"Perhaps. And yet, in a strategic sense, the Mantis have powerful advantages." You reply, laying out your reasoning even as it comes to you. "The vast majority of their territory is on the Islands of Silk and Spice - indeed, unless the Wasp choose to join them, virtually all of the lands of the Mantis lie off-shore. The Yoritomo family's naval forces are well known, while the Lion are entirely land-locked. The initiative would lie almost entirely with the Mantis in such a situation, especially if they have the ability to sail up rivers to strike at Lion holdings not commonly subject to attack."
You pause for a moment, then decide you might as well be thorough about this. "Beyond that, Otomo-sama, the Lion are likely the easiest to start a war with. Their reputation is well known, and while they have few allies there are more than enough enemies who would delight in seeing them humbled. The Matsu are notoriously easy to provoke, but convince him that his Honour is threatened and any Lion would be willing to march to war."
"An undeniable, if unappealing fact." The courtier concedes. "There are more than a few in the Imperial City who would much prefer to see the Akodo family restored for precisely that reason. While they ruled, the Lion could often be restrained from their most violent impulses, if not entirely controlled. An interesting prediction, Soshi-san."
There is a slight edge to his words, and after a moment you divine the most likely reason for it. The Scorpion have not hesitated to provoke such conflicts between their enemies in the past, after all, and it would be easy enough for suspicion in any developing unpleasantness to fall directly upon you. Since that would be, well, less than ideal, you take a moment to cover for your family.
"I do wish to note that the Scorpion have no wish for anything of that kind to come about, Otomo-sama." You say cautiously, aware you are probably overstepping somewhat in speaking for your Clan entire but willing to take the risk. "We need the trade through Beiden Pass to remain undisrupted for as long as possible, to say nothing of the consequences if any... provocation were to be traced back to us. While our reputation is not exceptional at the best of times, recent events have taught us that it can always get worse."
Otomo Kairyu laughs at that one, though he has the courtesy to keep it short and controlled. "True enough, Soshi-san. Thank you. You have given me a great deal to think about. Now, perhaps you might indulge me in a round of the General's Game?"
-/-
Later that afternoon, you seek out Pale Oak. He is in his office, as is perhaps to be expected, and once the bowing is out of the way you take a moment to gather your thoughts and speak. "Pale Oak-san, I was hoping I could consult with you on a certain matter."
"Of course, Soshi-dono. I would be happy to assist however I may." The scribe says politely. "However, first I feel I must inform you of an interesting development - one of my subordinates has been contacted by the local dissidents. They seem to think we might be able to assist them with something."
Respond
[ ] Write in