In Thunder's Echo (Legend of the Five Rings Quest)

...*Blink* huh, somehow, I don't blame the Lions anymore for ambushing the character. To most others, Scorpion must seem like honor-less fucks.

The more you know. *Bwoang*

Working As Intended.

The duty of the Scorpions is to be the Bad Guy to keep the Empire stable by keeping everyone more angry with them than they are with the Emperor.
 
Well, we could lay out how most of the clans aren't really in any condition to wage a war at the moment, then mention how the next great conflict would likely come from something subtle or within, maybe?

Oh, you mean like some hidden enemy is using methods traditionally used (or perceived to be used) by the Clan of Secrets? To literally the Family whose one job is to keep the clans weak.

I get that we want to say "Ninja....I mean Shadowtainted!" but we have no reason...At All... to suspect anyone other than a high ranking dissenter in either the Crane or Lion. And we also can't SAY what we do know for the reasons above.

Also the Lion do have the Men to go back to war, they lack in skilled officers and Toturi's student leading the clan with express orders to maintain peace. Given sufficient offence, they could totally attack someone.
 
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[x] "This may be the Scorpion in me talking, Otomo-sama, but I suspect that the next war will come from subterfuge. So far as I can see, the leaders of the clans and families largely understand that peace is what must be. Some desire it outright, others merely grudgingly accept it, but they all agree. There are currents of resentment underneath, however. There are the rebels we have already encountered, and whoever it is that backs them. There are samurai who bear fresh resentment from the wars, and those who yearn for the glory they feel that resurgent Clan Wars might bring them. I know not where the next war will come, but I suspect that it will be as a result of disloyalty and lies."
[x] "If I had to guess among the clans? My best guess would be the Mantis, likely at odds with the Lion. The Mantis have power and money, but little respect. Some might see a victorious war against the Lion as a way to claim some of that respect by force of arms - especially since much of their land is island territory, and their command of the sea enough to make assaulting it near-suicidal. They have little enough love for the Lion, and the Lion have the unenviable position of being both well-recognized as a powerful opponent in war and generally disliked. They make a perfect target for someone with something to prove. Many among the Lion are inclined to see those not of their Clan as enemies, and the Matsu are easy to provoke. The Lion will not start anything of themselves, but if you could convince them that their honor had been offended badly enough, there are many among their number who would be only too happy to ride to war in response.
[x] "I do wish to note that we among the Scorpion in particular have no desire that anything like this come about. Any major war involving the Lion would be sure to do a great deal of damage to the trade through Beiden Pass, in addition to the damage it would be sure to do to our reputation when discovered. Our reputation is not the best as it stands, but such things can always get worse."

The first bit should be vague enough to still be in obedience to Bayushi Kimoko's requirement that we not speak of our suspicions with respect to the Crane, or the shadowy types. At the same time, it might get him looking in the right direction on some of those things - and if and when the information starts to come out, we'll either look prescient (if he doesn't realize we knew) or at least not have been lying to him. The second bit really is our best available guess, given available information, and might get him looking at the Mantis, which would likely be to the benefit of the Scorpion, as they really don't have reason to like us. The last bit is obvious protective noises about our own Clan, and also completely honest.

Note that in the blurb we were given off of our lore check, it was stated that the Mantis were both wealthy and strong. This may be a change from OTL.

It suffers from being entirely too straightforward, but I don't have the ergs to translate it into court language, even if such were appropriate. (It's a little hard to tell given how directly he's asking.)
 
But the matter is done. Sorry if I sounded a little insistent, but I must have lost something whe I was reading your the plan.
Nothing to apologize for. I just did not understand what was unclear. Miscommunication happens often when we are missing stuff like tone of voice, body posture and gestures. It's no ones fault, it just happens.
****
[X] Start in something of a wistful voice: "I would prefer to believe that after everything we all have suffered through the Empire could enjoy a period of peace. Unfortunately for any such fancies, I am Scorpion, so I worry Otomo-sama."

Continue in a businesslike manner: "I would say it is not my place to speculate on such matters but a direct question deserves a direct answer. The likeliest cause of the next war, if you forgive me saying so, is the Line of Succession. The Emperor has yet to produce or name an heir. So long as that is so, the Empire holds its breath. As long as the Royal Line holds strong, only a fool or a monster would try and create another major war between the Clans so soon."

Unsaid, it goes, that any such fool will be found and quickly and quietly removed before they can do their damage if it is at all in the power of the Scorpion Clan. Rokugan needs time to heal.


"I suppose should news of the devastation Rokugan has suffered spread, some greedy Gaijin might take it as an invitation. The back of the Shadowlands armies has been broken, but I've little doubt that in the years to come, we will be dealing with remnants of this war. The Shadowlands would certainly like it if we ripped ourselves apart while they ready for the next war."

End with a bow:
"I hope the thoughts of a simple young samurai were not too naive Otomo-sama."

****
@Sirrocco: I am not sure we want to go after the Mantis. The only indication we have that they may dislike us is what? As far as I can tell, they respect our pragmatism, but cannot figure out why we flaunt it, not understanding that that is our sacrifice. I would rather not close any door, before we have even met with their delegation, and see what we are up against. Or who we might be working with.
 
Ooh, Imperial Succession huh? Ball back in your court Otomo san.

Edit: that said, it's a no doubt touchy subject that's above his pay grade. Someone trying to pick a fight with the Lion is something he can personally watch for right now. We don't have to name the Mants outright although "A clan looking for respect" is a pretty strong hint.

He's going to troll someone at this court. No blame attaches to us if it happens to be the Mantis. Knowing who it is most likely to be lets the Scorpion take an advantageous position. Perhaps the Mantis will need a sympathetic yet pragmatic friend in the aftermath...
 
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While my previous answer seems perfectly legitimate, it does not feel Scorpion. It's like something a Unicorn or a Phoenix might answer. So let's see if I cannot make it better?

[X] Answer as politely as possible: "I is not my place to judge those above my station," though that is exactly what the Scorpion do, "but I would personally breathe easier when the Imperial Heir is born Otomo-sama. " It goes unsaid, but probably not unheard, that one can also be named until then, but is currently not.

Continue politely: "That said, I do not believe the Matsu will start the next war."Then add in a quiet and dry voice: "Though they might need some help avoiding it."

Proceed in a calm tone: "But should I be mistaken, the Mantis seems a likely target. Their lands were mostly untouched by the war, and many Matsu see them as upstarts, something the Mantis are no longer likely to tolerate. Especially should the Crane seek a way to punish the Matsu for their part in the war."
*****


A bit of a sting to that answer, as it will not do to have the Otomo forget he is dealing with a Scorpion. That would be bad for our continuing health and he does enjoy battling with words so it should not be a problem.
 
[x] Primemountain

Both approaches are technically the same, but this one looks like a safer approach. We're not certain of things, after all.
 
Despite vehemently disagreeing with the bit about the Mantis (If anything we should rationally be thinking that some higher ranking buthurt matsu wants to finish the job of the Crane the clanwars started) @Sirrocco is closest to what I think is both viable and in character.


[x] Sirrocco
 
The key issue is that we're in the Lion lands so accusing them of being warmongering jerks, while completely accurate is not helpful towards keeping them friendly to us, it's a bit of a trap.

At least that's my read.
 
*sighs*

And here I was about to start writing the next update, and we're still tied. I'll give folks a few hours to see if any more tiebreakers come in, otherwise I'll flip a coin or something.
 
[x] Sirrocco
To be honest I've forgotten what the options are, so I flipped a coin for you. Feel free to disregard this if someone else others a tie breaker.
 
5.08 - On predictions of war
Well. That is quite the question, and you immediately note the wording - 'when', not 'if'. Otomo Kairyu fully expects war to break out in the future, even if he doesn't know the specifics. Whether that is because of some particular knowledge or wisdom on his part or simply due to a rampant sense of paranoia, though, you have no idea.

Still, he asked you a question, and refusing to answer an Imperial samurai on a matter such as this is liable to end badly. Thus you take a moment to consider the idea, and reply.

"This may be the Scorpion in me speaking, Otomo-sama, but I suspect that the next war will come from subterfuge." You say slowly. Kairyu looks intrigued, and gestures for you to continue. "So far as I can see, the leaders of most Clans and Families in the Empire understand the need for peace. Some desire it outright, others grudgingly accept it, but after recent events few deny it outright. There are, however, currents of resentment underlying that."

"Such as?" The Imperial says mildly, and you sense that you tread on potentially dangerous ground. The Otomo family is renowned for having... well, not quite a spy network, but certainly a web of informants and friendly ears that spreads across the Empire, rivaled only by that of your own Clan. Talk to subterfuge and resentment would naturally be of interest to anyone who walks in such a world.

"I might say the rebels we have already encountered, and whoever it is that sees fit to back them." You reply, subtly referencing your own intervention in that matter. "Then there are those who suffered greatly in the recent conflicts, and feel the need for justice or revenge. And, of course, there are always those who hunger for the glory that battle could bring."

"Hmm. I would have thought the last case to be the most likely." Kairyu says thoughtfully, a small smile tugging at his lips. "They called the time under the rule of the Hantei the 'Thousand Years of Peace', but I have studied the histories. Rarely did a year go by without a peasant uprising or a border war between the Clans, even before you touch upon the constant bandit groups or the business at the Kaiu Wall."

You nod, aware that prior to the Second Day of Thunder few samurai would have been willing to refer to the Crab's eternal war even in such indirect terms. The return of Fu Leng has changed much.

"If I had to guess among the Clans? I would say the Mantis, Otomo-sama, likely at odds with the Lion." You venture cautiously, seeing the way that your host's eyes sharpen at this. "The Mantis have wealth and power, but their status as a Great Clan is only freshly obtained. There will be many who deny them the respect they feel they are due, and they will seek to prove themselves in response. Wealth alone is not enough, so they might easily seek a military confrontation."

"A plausible enough scenario." Otomo Kairyu allows, looking thoughtful. "Why the Lion, though? If one is seeking a military triumph, the Right Hand would seem a poor choice of opponents."

"Perhaps. And yet, in a strategic sense, the Mantis have powerful advantages." You reply, laying out your reasoning even as it comes to you. "The vast majority of their territory is on the Islands of Silk and Spice - indeed, unless the Wasp choose to join them, virtually all of the lands of the Mantis lie off-shore. The Yoritomo family's naval forces are well known, while the Lion are entirely land-locked. The initiative would lie almost entirely with the Mantis in such a situation, especially if they have the ability to sail up rivers to strike at Lion holdings not commonly subject to attack."

You pause for a moment, then decide you might as well be thorough about this. "Beyond that, Otomo-sama, the Lion are likely the easiest to start a war with. Their reputation is well known, and while they have few allies there are more than enough enemies who would delight in seeing them humbled. The Matsu are notoriously easy to provoke, but convince him that his Honour is threatened and any Lion would be willing to march to war."

"An undeniable, if unappealing fact." The courtier concedes. "There are more than a few in the Imperial City who would much prefer to see the Akodo family restored for precisely that reason. While they ruled, the Lion could often be restrained from their most violent impulses, if not entirely controlled. An interesting prediction, Soshi-san."

There is a slight edge to his words, and after a moment you divine the most likely reason for it. The Scorpion have not hesitated to provoke such conflicts between their enemies in the past, after all, and it would be easy enough for suspicion in any developing unpleasantness to fall directly upon you. Since that would be, well, less than ideal, you take a moment to cover for your family.

"I do wish to note that the Scorpion have no wish for anything of that kind to come about, Otomo-sama." You say cautiously, aware you are probably overstepping somewhat in speaking for your Clan entire but willing to take the risk. "We need the trade through Beiden Pass to remain undisrupted for as long as possible, to say nothing of the consequences if any... provocation were to be traced back to us. While our reputation is not exceptional at the best of times, recent events have taught us that it can always get worse."

Otomo Kairyu laughs at that one, though he has the courtesy to keep it short and controlled. "True enough, Soshi-san. Thank you. You have given me a great deal to think about. Now, perhaps you might indulge me in a round of the General's Game?"

-/-

Later that afternoon, you seek out Pale Oak. He is in his office, as is perhaps to be expected, and once the bowing is out of the way you take a moment to gather your thoughts and speak. "Pale Oak-san, I was hoping I could consult with you on a certain matter."

"Of course, Soshi-dono. I would be happy to assist however I may." The scribe says politely. "However, first I feel I must inform you of an interesting development - one of my subordinates has been contacted by the local dissidents. They seem to think we might be able to assist them with something."

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