Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

[occipitallobe]

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[moon-llama]

From a pure gameplay perspective, I don't think there's ever not going to be a pressing issue. If there wasn't then we'd build up too fast. Once the cannibals are dealt with the Devil Bees or Jingshen will become a problem again. There's always something, which means we're always incentivized to spend everything. Because of that, I think it's very unlikely that we'll ever save up 40-80 wealth. So as long as this opportunity is here I think it's worth springing for.

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Thing is once/if cannibals are dealt with we will gain a significant increase in wealth considering the new land will weaken the impoverishment curse and we will get a reduction in enemies raids as we will have one less front.

 

[Olivebirdy]

It's still worth getting since it's a really steep discount.

 

[no.]

Except our financial situation has a major inflection point where saving up 40 wealth or so over a couple.turns is incredibly plausible. Given we're in a third of the poorest portion of.the region with a curse of poverty hampering our income.even further

Once we take down the blood.cannibals and break the curse of poverty that can and will change. Moreover, this time period since game.start has been blatantly abnormal in terms of number of crises to manage. Once the Blood Cannibals are broken our fortunes will improve drastically

Your assumption has no genuine basis. 40-80.may not be plausible under current circumstances...but those circumstances will be changing very very soon. Which has been the plan from the start.

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That'll be really nice... if it happens. Here's some other things that could happen:

Jingshen swoops in and does some duckers to seize most of the land

The Blood Cannibals unveil a Macguffin which prolongs the war to three turns and sends us into debt

The Blood Cannibals are pushed back but not wiped out, leading to a stalemate because destroying them would be too expensive

The war goes into the next turn, the Devil Bees reunify, and we're now fighting on two fronts

And much much more.
Hoping for prosperity is all well and good, but hedging your bets on it is dangerous. Think about this from our enemies' perspective: they know that we can grow quickly. They're not going to give us multiple free turns if they can help it.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

Except our financial situation has a major inflection point where saving up 40 wealth or so over a couple.turns is incredibly plausible. Given we're in a third of the poorest portion of.the region with a curse of poverty hampering our income.even further

Once we take down the blood.cannibals and break the curse of poverty that can and will change. Moreover, this time period since game.start has been blatantly abnormal in terms of number of crises to manage. Once the Blood Cannibals are broken our fortunes will improve drastically

Your assumption has no genuine basis. 40-80.may not be plausible under current circumstances...but those circumstances will be changing very very soon. Which has been the plan from the start.

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It's also been abnormal in the number of cultivation talents in the clan to deal with such crisises, tbf. Being the protagonist of this narrative cuts both ways.

 

[TehChron]

That'll be really nice... if it happens. Here's some other things that could happen:

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And what will taking a loan to upgrade the technique palace do to solve all these problems you've presented?

Serious question that I'd like to hear a serious answer to.

Because you are proposing betting on our continued success by grabbing an unnecessary expense in a genuinely dangerous situation for the second time in 3 turns, only this time with an enemy determined to actually kill us outright, whilst still recovering from the last such gambit.

I really don't see why you have any business lecturing me on the value of hedging bets when you propose doing the exact opposite.

It's also been abnormal in the number of cultivation talents in the clan to deal with such crisises, tbf. Being the protagonist of this narrative cuts both ways.

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Oh absolutely, and if everything works out and we thread the needle we should start to see the positive side of that swing after we finish up dealing with all of this.

It's still worth getting since it's a really steep discount.

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Not compared to the opportunity cost.

 

[Olivebirdy]

Not compared to the opportunity cost.

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The opportunity cost is not carroting the Jingshen and not hiring mercs to guard our road. That's not that bad. Bumping up the level of our Technique Palace will help us with the war effort by improving our Foundation disciples. Getting the Palace was considered 1/2 as good as getting formation plates and 1/3 as good as getting healing pills and took effect on the turn we got it. This time it would take effect for our Foundation disciples, it'll be useful now and stay useful later.

 

[TehChron]

The opportunity cost is not carroting the Jingshen and not hiring mercs to guard our road

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And forcing Manuel to confront the Nascent Soul-Relevant prepwork that Old cannibal made immune to all our scrying save Manuel's, which reeks of a rather blatant trap to fall into.

Like, I get why you wouldnt want to spend money unnecessarily

But what's so attractive about sticking your arm, knowingly, into a wood chipper?

 

[no.]

And what will taking a loan to upgrade the technique palace do to solve all these problems you've presented?

Serious question that I'd like to hear a serious answer to.

Because you are proposing betting on our continued success by grabbing an unnecessary expense in a genuinely dangerous situation for the second time in 3 turns, only this time with an enemy determined to actually kill us outright, whilst still recovering from the last such gambit.

I really don't see why you have any business lecturing me on the value of hedging bets when you propose doing the exact opposite.

Oh absolutely, and if everything works out and we thread the needle we should start to see the positive side of that swing after we finish up dealing with all of this.


Not compared to the opportunity cost.

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The benefit is that we can guarantee nabbing this long-term benefit now, as opposed to hoping that we'll manage to get enough downtime that we can save up for an expense of at least 40 wealth. If we do it now, then we'll never have to think about it again, and we'll be able to focus on other things.

And for a less rational, more emotional benefit... it will make the sacrifices worth it. We bled like hell for this palace, if we can get it functioning better now, as opposed to hoping that we'll maybe be able to do it in four turns if we're lucky, then that'll make the wound sting less.

Furthermore, the palace is useful in general, but especially useful for the next Trials, so it'll insure we don't have any big die-offs of Centurions, which is absolutely crucial until our supply of elders is replenished.

Edit: And I honestly don't like sending Manuel to spy. It reeks of quest voter arrogance: "it's okay, games are supposed to be fun, so there's a hard limit to how much consequence we can ever suffer." But I really want to nab the palace now so I'm forced to go with that vote.

 

[uri]

The benefit is that we can guarantee nabbing this long-term benefit now, as opposed to hoping that we'll manage to get enough downtime that we can save up for an expense of at least 40 wealth. If we do that, then we'll never have to think about it again, and we'll be able to focus on other things.

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The problem is that we need to focus on the short term now or there might not be a long term.

 

[TehChron]

The benefit is that we can guarantee nabbing this long-term benefit now

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And what about the short term.fight to the death against a peer opponent that we have to win quickly or risk not winning at all?

And at best entering into a death spiral?

Edit: And I honestly don't like sending Manuel to spy. It reeks of quest voter arrogance: "it's okay, games are supposed to be fun, so there's a hard limit to how much consequence we can ever suffer." But I really want to nab the palace now so I'm forced to go with that vote

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...What?

We are literally inches away from a death spiral, what are you talking about?

 

[Alectai]

Mmm, practically speaking, it's possible this might be a decoy set up to make us expend resources spying, but honestly, I generally trust Chron's tactical reads.

[X] TehChron

Better to win this war cleanly and build up with only one openly hostile neighbour.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

And for a less rational, more emotional benefit... it will make the sacrifices worth it. We bled like hell for this palace, if we can get it functioning better now, as opposed to hoping that we'll maybe be able to do it in four turns if we're lucky, then that'll make the wound sting less.

Furthermore, the palace is useful in general, but especially useful for the next Trials, so it'll insure we don't have any big die-offs of Centurions, which is absolutely crucial until our supply of elders is replenished.

Edit: And I honestly don't like sending Manuel to spy. It reeks of quest voter arrogance: "it's okay, games are supposed to be fun, so there's a hard limit to how much consequence we can ever suffer." But I really want to nab the palace now so I'm forced to go with that vote.

Click to shrink...

We picked the "most experienced" starting character, and it means that Manuel is supposed to be competent at this kind of thing - especially when it fits his Dao. This doesn't mean it can't go wrong or it's foolproof, bad rolls always happen. But it's going to have to be very, very, cunning trap to catch Manuel out.

 

[TehChron]

Mmm, practically speaking, it's possible this might be a decoy set up to make us expend resources spying, but honestly, I generally trust Chron's tactical reads.

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Thanks for that.

Able to resist the Golden Eye Array is something that shouldn't be possible bar Old Cannibals direct intervention.

And we also have him or someone like him consistently rooting out our spies.

Whatever is going on in that city is too expensive to be replicated bar Old Cannibals personal involvement, meaning that only Manuel has a chance of interfering with it. If all.that city represents is a potential waste of resources, then theres an obvious followup element to that.

Having the Golden Eye Array pierce that veil means that whatever resources Old Cannibal sunk into the endeavor get wasted as well, as the trap would be sprung remotely and without harm to anything that cant be replaced.

A loss that Old Cannibal can accept far less.than we can.

 

[Olivebirdy]

Occipital previously placed the cost of repairing the Palace at 80 Wealth for Foundation and 200 for Core Formation. We'd be saving 66 Wealth, we'd be getting the improvement to our cultivators this turn, as the war starts, instead of in however many turns it takes us to be able to spare 80 Wealth. Consider that for opportunity cost.

Yes, the city might be a trap. It might also be a bluff to get us to blow wealth on peeking in on it. Our Spymistress says it's impregnable, that she can't get a spy in, and that it will be expensive to satellite imagery of it. And if it is a woodchipper, it's best if Manuel gets a look at it anyway. It might be arrogance, sure. But it's also Manuel's specialty. His whole Dao is about ferreting out hidden information. I'm sure he has his own tricks for investigating bear traps.

 

[TehChron]

We picked the "most experienced" starting character, and it means that Manuel is supposed to be competent at this kind of thing - especially when it fits his Dao. This doesn't mean it can't go wrong or it's foolproof, bad rolls always happen. But it's going to have to be very, very, cunning trap to catch Manuel out.

Click to shrink...

And Old Cannibal is noted to be a very old, very cunning peer opponent to Manuel directly. He knows what hes dealing with, and how to bait a trap to catch us.

But it's an extremely expensive trap, so if we spring it without it amounting to any real risk for Manuel, that's a loss all on its own.

Yes, the city might be a trap. It might also be a bluff to get us to blow wealth on peeking in on it. Our Spymistress says it's impregnable, that she can't get a spy in, and that it will be expensive to satellite imagery of it. And if it is a woodchipper, it's best if Manuel gets a look at it anyway. It might be arrogance, sure. But it's also Manuel's specialty. His whole Dao is about ferreting out hidden information.

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If it's a trap itll be tailored to Manuel specifically.

This is a fight to the knife.

Bleeding us of wealth isnt remotely Old Cannibals endgame, its bleeding Manuel so that we cant stop him and the Blood Cannibals from rampaging. Hitting us in our wallets is about a long game that doesnt apply to this situation.

It's too urgent for everyone involved, and the Blood Cannibals are too poor to ever bet on that route in the first place.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

Bleeding us of wealth is totally beneficial to him here - the opportunity cost of spending it just to get a glimpse (not stop, but just see) is a palace upgrade, or significant less pressure on the scorpion road. Plus the possible loss of the Golden Eye array for the rest of the war. Those alone are big wins for Old cannibal without counting whatever is actually in there.

 

[TehChron]

Bleeding us of wealth is totally beneficial to him here

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How so?

Like, generic "bad for.my enemy is good for.me" is all well and good, but this is an existential fight for Old Cannibal, so he doesnt have the time or resources to expend so much for such nebulous games

Hes on a time limit to break our defenses, so what, precisely, does.making us waste money when those defenses are already in place accomplish?

 

[uri]

By the way Tehchron, the only problem I have with your plan is that having Manuel focus on interference with Fu tong is too narrow and may waste the action if Fu tong turns out to be nothing/a distraction and maybe something more general like "prepare to interfere with old cannibals plots and strikes" would be better?

Other than that it seems fine.
[X] Plan For An Ace Up The Sleeve(?)

 

[TehChron]

By the way Tehchron, the only problem I have with your plan is that having Manuel focus on interference with Fu tong is too narrow and may waste the action if Fu tong turns out to be nothing/a distraction and maybe something more general like "prepare to interfere with old cannibals plots and strikes" would be better?

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Good catch!

Yeah I'll rephrase it to take that suggestion into account. My personal.bet is that it's a double layered thing where the wards are a trap for Manuel to either take him out or give Old cannibal a free shot and the city itself holds some kind of method to crack open our defenses.

 

[moon-llama]

[X] Plan For An Ace Up The Sleeve(?)

To go all-in on the palace is good, but at the moment we really can't afford it.
the palace is a long-term benefit but at the moment we are fighting weakened against a desperate peer opponent.
we don't have the luxury of breathing room to take this especially considering the losing will put us in even worse straits when the next
round of trials happens in 60 years.
remember the trials have changed we need to conserve as much of our strength if we wish to survive.

 

[Olivebirdy]

Bleeding us of wealth isnt remotely Old Cannibals endgame, its bleeding Manuel so that we cant stop him and the Blood Cannibals from rampaging. Hitting us in our wallets is about a long game that doesnt apply to this situation.

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We have 9 Wealth without taking out a loan. Old Cannibal hitting us in the wallet is completely worth it for him. That's money we could have used for pills, powering up our Foundation levels, bribing Jingshen. Money does win wars.

Hes on a time limit to break our defenses, so what, precisely, does.making us waste money when those defenses are already in place accomplish?

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What are the Ten Thousand Forts? What are healing pills? He's on a time limit to break our defenses, sure. And we can buy and create things to bolster said defenses.

the palace is a long-term benefit

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It's not just a long-term benefit, it's a short-term benefit as well. It takes effect and powers up our fighters this turn.

we don't have the luxury of breathing room to take this especially considering the losing will put us in even worse straits when the next
round of trials happens in 60 years.

Click to shrink...

Pumping up our Foundation-level cultivators will help them survive the harrowing in sixty years as well.

 

[uri]

It's not just a long-term benefit, it's a short-term benefit as well. It takes effect and powers up our fighters this turn.

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The palace takes a full 20 years turn to take effect.

 

[TehChron]

We have 9 Wealth without taking out a loan. Old Cannibal hitting us in the wallet is completely worth it for him. That's money we could have used for pills, powering up our Foundation levels, bribing Jingshen. Money does win wars.

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So does violence?

So how does somewhat less money help Old Cannibal kill Manuel? And why does that justify the no doubt extreme cost it took to set this up in the first place?

What are the Ten Thousand Forts? What are healing pills? He's on a time limit to break our defenses, sure. And we can buy and create things to bolster said defenses.

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Uh, you know I included the Forts in my plan as well? And theres wealth left over to purchase pills and stuff. My plan only costs 16 wealth out of 19 since the Golden Eye Array overcharge is fairly cheaper than the technique palace repair.

Pumping up our Foundation-level cultivators will help them survive the harrowing in sixty years as well.

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But it doesnt really do anything to help with the primary threat, which is the fight between Old Cannibal and Manuel.

Everything else is about trying to tip the scales of that conflict one way or the other. And whatever doesnt do that, can be fairly considered a long term benefit rather than a short term one

 

[moon-llama]

We have 9 Wealth without taking out a loan. Old Cannibal hitting us in the wallet is completely worth it for him. That's money we could have used for pills, powering up our Foundation levels, bribing Jingshen. Money does win wars.

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"Give me my lands back, Konstantinos. It's that, or war to the knife. I know the Jingshen are playing fisherman to my snipe and your clam, but I have no choice in the matter if I want to survive in the long-term. If I can't have the lands I need, I'll be coming to get them back one way or another. Give me my lands back, and I'll give you peace for a century. Two, even! Give me my lands back, and you'll have peace and plenty. Don't, and even if you win I'll shatter you."

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Old cannibal is desperate.
He offered us 200 years of peace for a reason.

He doesn't have the time to bleed us of money, after what child gulper did to the mortals in his faction.

old cannibal need desperately to secure new mortals for resources or the cannibals will be entering a death spiral as there wouldn't be enough,

mortals to eat and they will be forced to eat each other until a new equilibrium is reached.

 

[Olivebirdy]

I'm noticing that I'm actually making the wrong argument, arguing over something that isn't actually core to my main one. I don't actually think it's a bluff to make us spend 11 Wealth on nothing, I just think that the 11 Wealth is better off used to power up our fighters now. I do think that something is going on in that fortress, and I do think that it's a good idea to check it out.

Fixing the Palace is a limited-time offer, it will help us in this war and during the harrowing, it's completely worth the cost. If we don't take it now, it will cost us 80 to do it, because our resident Mad Scientist doesn't repeat offers and the soul she's using will expire.

But it doesnt really do anything to help with the primary threat, which is the fight between Old Cannibal and Manuel.

Everything else is about trying to tip the scales of that conflict one way or the other. And whatever doesnt do that, can be fairly considered a long term benefit rather than a short term one

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Yes, it does. Pumping up our forts, pumping up our warriors do in fact tip the conflict between us and Old Cannibal. It says so in the text, that the longer we can hold them off, the more unfavorable fights we can lure Old Cannibal into, because he's more pressed for time than we are.

As long as the Cannibals could be held sufficiently at bay, he could lure Old Cannibal out and into a series of unfavorable fights. Once that occurred, his victory was more-or-less assured. The key was setting up that fight, ensuring his own forces were kept intact and powerful while the enemy was not able to grow by cracking open cities. Any early losses might spell doom, but as long as the tempo of war went in his favour...

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The palace takes a full 20 years turn to take effect.

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Just like it was last time, when we bought the palace, it kicked in that turn. This war isn't going to finish up this turn, we're still at the start of it.