I don't think you realise how large and stupid the numbers you gave me are, as in:
With a 0% fatality risk between the ages of 4 and 8 (for reasons) and a million babies being born a year, less than 5000 are expected to reach the age of 14. And two hit 30. Didn't bother running the rest of the maths.
Its a broad and crude example to give context to how the trends might go. The point being that risks change with points in life and the risks of stone age life are disproportionately skewed towards early childhood and young adulthood.
The risks encountered by a member of the elite who is no longer engaged in risky activity are similar to the risks encountered by a well protected child.
Secondly the fact that they might have gained an immunity to disease is a further point of improbability.
I wasn't labeling gangrene because there was something special about it, it was just an example of how modern medicine and germ theory has improved our lives and removed risks that we don't often think about, I could have just as easily said Cholera or Smallpox or any random bacterial infection.
If your argument is they caught survived and got immune to every disease they ever encountered, you need to justify why that is statistically likely. My guess is that you're arguing that its possible due to small communities and the lack of domestication which means that diseases like cowpox haven't had the chance to jump the species gap? Thats a fascinating discussion in its own right however I would like to hear you actually argue it and your own ideas rather than just state it at me.
Low population density is the bigger deal. Diseases which happen are either non-contagious or burn out the supporting population rapidly, with the net result that being immune to the majority of regularly encountered pathogens is the human norm...or said human would be too dead to make it to adulthood prior to antibiotics.
Take into account that its only with urbanization that high lethality diseases were really sustainable in the ecosystem, a disease which kills everyone who contracts it within a month would have run out of hosts very quickly unless it had hosts which didn't die, or more hosts to hop between than it could spread to.
Finally you totally disregard the negatives of ageing somebody aged 90 is far more likely to die over the course of the same year as someone who is 51.
I was never saying its impossible just that it was so statistically unlikely that it broke my SoD and I was looking to understand why this happened.
The point is that the statistical improbability is grossly out of whack.
It is only extreme if you count it from birth. If you count it from when they ceased being an active hunter its quite normalized.
[X][LEAD] Have the elders return to leading the People in practice.
[X][LEGACY] By keeping an open mind and open hand, Arth made it possible to see for the Outsiders to join the People, gaining many of today's people as well as Vryn herself. Even if they are not People, people should be considered people.
[X][LEGACY] While Arth and Vryn ruled above the People as their leaders, they did not see themselves as being inherently better, instead earning their positions through hard work and their actions.
[X][LEGACY] Arth and Vryn made sure that the People prepared for the future and it was Arth's strict management of the food that made it possible for starvation to be all, but wiped out.
Forty and five winters have passed since Arth died and two generations of the People have grown up without having met the greatest of the People. Twenty and five winters have passed since Vryn died and a single generation has grown up without knowing the second greatest of the People. Ten and five winters have passed since Wyrn claimed the mantle that Arth and Vryn once held and the latest generation of People have grown up on her stories of Arth and Vryn.
It didn't take much effort for Wyrn to become the leader of the People. While the People might have returned to having the elders lead, that decision only had a slight majority of support with plenty of the People desiring another leader like Arth or Vryn.
When Wyrn stood up to fulfil that position of leadership, most welcomed her with open arms and while there were some complaints, she had the backing of the People for all intents and purposes.
Wyrn was not the genius that Arth was nor did she have the advantage of being Arth's wife and an elder like Vryn, but she had the silver tongue of her grandfather and her grandmother's beauty. Having already leveraged those to get the People listening to her tales, she could get them listening to her even if she wasn't as good as Arth.
Then again, no one, not even Vryn, can be as good as Arth.
Nonetheless, following the example of her grandfather, Wyrn gets by. It helps that Arth was wise enough to know that he wasn't going to live forever and made sure to teach others how to organise things. So while Wyrn never got to learn from Arth himself, those taught by Arth have been able to teach Wyrn and Wyrn will be one of those teaching the next generation.
How to lead the People won't the only thing that the next generation will learn from Wyrn. While not an elder yet, Wyrn has still been able to get the People to listen to her tales of Arth and Vryn.
The tales she speaks are varied. Sometimes she tells them of how Arth was wise enough to prepare for the future and not only did he make sure that future leaders of the People would know what to do, but he his strict management of the food situation resulted in the current system which kept anyone from dying of hunger.
Other tales include how by being open minded and offering a friendly hand, Arth not only avoided conflict with the Outsiders, but he convinced most of them to join the People and many of those living today can trace their descent back to an Outsider or two. If he had refused to treat the Outsiders as not being people due to not being part of the People, the People would be worse off and many of those alive today would not be around.
A third tale would be one of how neither Arth or Vryn were born special. Both of them earned their positions through hard work instead of being granted their places in life due to being born special. They were both great, but that greatness was earned through work and not given by birth.
Of these stories, the younger generations have taken away one main lesson from them. People are people and everyone is born equal. You should judge people by their actions and not the nature of their birth.
New Value Gained!
Born Equal While the choices of a person and the world around them can make a person greater or lesser, everyone is born equal to each other.
Pros: Decreased social stratification,
Cons: Decreased social stratification,
Wyrn just hopes that the People have learnt the right lesson from her tales.
You have two Secondary Actions. Two Secondary Actions make a single Main Action.
Please tag actions as [SEC] & [MAIN] and NO PLAN VOTING.
[] [SEC/MAIN] More Fishing.
S: +1 Temp Econ, Chance of Innovation,
M: +3 Temp Econ, Improved Chance of Innovation
[] [SEC/MAIN] More Hunting.
S: +1 Temp Econ, Chance of Innovation,
M: +3 Temp Econ, Improved Chance of Innovation
[] [SEC/MAIN] More Farming.
S: +1 Temp Econ, Chance of Innovation,
M: -3 Temp Econ, +1 Econ (0/1) (Limited by number of Settlements), Chance of Innovation,
[] [SEC/MAIN] Explore Lands
S: -1 Temp Econ, -1 Temp Martial, Chance of new discovery,
M: -3 Temp Econ, -2 Temp Martial, Improved Chance of new discovery,
***
I'm not going to explain everything in this post so if something is unclear, just ask. I will say that stat wise I am using permanent stats and temporary stats with the latter being in the brackets. Temp stats can be raised as high as twice the permanent stat before they begin to overflow and at the start of each turn, the temp stat will move halfway back towards the permanent stat. For example with Econ 6, Temp Econ 4 would become Temp Econ 5 at the start of each turn while Temp Econ 10 would become Temp Econ 8. A lot of the stuff in the Civ Sheet isn't relevant right now, but is in there so I can keep track of things more easily.
The People Council of Elders Upper Centralization Limit: ??? Lower Centralization Limit: ??? Admin Strain Free Provinces: ??? Penalty Accumulation: ??? Player Actions: 2 Secondary Actions +1 Secondary Action per 2 Provinces Province Actions: 1 Secondary Action per 2 Provinces Subordinates: ???
Early Ancient Palace Economy Temp Econ Damage: Event, -1 per 1 Centralisation, Wealth Generation: 1 per Dominant, Passive Policies: N/A Additional Actions: None Special: Negative Centralisation or lower than Minimum Centralisation will lead to collapse. Special: Increased polity size will raise the level of Minimum Centralisation required.
Values & Legacies
Communal Compassion Loyalty and kindness to one's people is a value thing and even when times are tough or when it is not personally beneficial, one should stick by their community.
Pros: Reduced Internal Discontent,
Cons: Increase stability loss from taking actions which harm the People,
Born Equal While the choices of a person and the world around them can make a person greater or lesser, everyone is born equal to each other.
Pros: Decreased social stratification,
Cons: Decreased social stratification,
I should also mention that I will be rolling for random stuff in the background now so be prepared for stuff like bad weather costing you Temp Econ or otherwise unexpected stuff that can ruin careful planning.
But, if we demand boats now, shouldn't we take MAIN more fishing? We can't see what we actually need to pass a Chance of Innovation. A roll higher than 75, higher than 6, higher than 50?
just think of this situation famine become low now but illness will come so
Explore land to find herb, spice and mushrooms while farming to find a way to grow them near the village
there a chance medicine will be made.
Its a broad and crude example to give context to how the trends might go. The point being that risks change with points in life and the risks of stone age life are disproportionately skewed towards early childhood and young adulthood.
The risks encountered by a member of the elite who is no longer engaged in risky activity are similar to the risks encountered by a well protected child.
Low population density is the bigger deal. Diseases which happen are either non-contagious or burn out the supporting population rapidly, with the net result that being immune to the majority of regularly encountered pathogens is the human norm...or said human would be too dead to make it to adulthood prior to antibiotics.
Take into account that its only with urbanization that high lethality diseases were really sustainable in the ecosystem, a disease which kills everyone who contracts it within a month would have run out of hosts very quickly unless it had hosts which didn't die, or more hosts to hop between than it could spread to.
The point is that the statistical improbability is grossly out of whack.
It is only extreme if you count it from birth. If you count it from when they ceased being an active hunter its quite normalized.
Alright lets pull up a population pyramid.
Now I'll be using Nigerias one as the more representative curve, unfortunately its still been influenced by the Industrial Revolution and modern medicine, but I doubt theres an example that isn't in the world.
Alright so your assertion that if people live to 40, they are statistically likely to live to the ages that Vryn and Arth did. Now significant figures kind of damage my attempts to really extrapolate however I can calculate the probability for Arth.
I'm going to start by dividing 100 by 2.3 (The % of males at age 40-44). This gives a factor of 43.48 which we can use to normalise the rest of the curve such that everything is relative to 100% of males at that age. When we do this to Arths age group of 80-84 we can see that there is 4.34% chance that he lived that long.
Even if we just assume that Vryn was just as likely that gives us a roughly 1/500 chance that they both lived to their respective ages. So no, I don't think its grossly out of whack that I consider this statistically unlikely and don't think that I didn't notice you not responding to my comment about aging increasing other risk factors.
I'd also like to point out a nuance regarding population density, while that is probably the key factor in plagues, isolated populations are actually able to sustain diseases that can have a 90% death rate for long enought that they've evolved to be resistant. Kuru (disease) - Wikipedia
While obviously this is a special case owing to its transmission vector I think its important to highlight that there are other factors that can make massive impacts.
