Sirrocco
Pedantic
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I believe that our front page elemental ranks are inaccurate - Earth should only be skill 3, with the new Emerald Champion. so...
On the matter of masteries:
- Doji Yuriko's focus is Diplomacy, so her mastery applies, giving a +2k0.
- Tsuruchi Etsuko's focus is Reform, which probably doesn't apply to road building
- Hida Ginchiyo's focus is on Defense, which this probably doesn't apply to. Arguably, this would actually fall on Togashi Shiko, but her stat is 4, and her focus is Balance, which means that she'd have the same +5k0 that non-focus Ginchiyo does. No change regardless.
- Yasuki Chitose's focus is on Growth. Taxing people and belt-tightening doesn't seem like a fit, there.
- Horiuchi Shem-Zhe's focus is on Reform. From a Jade Champion standpoint... honestly, I'd expect that "figure out this bizarre gaijin magic" actually fits that one pretty well. He probably gets the +2k0. Writing in below as if he does.
Air: 9k3 for ????, clan rating effects unknown (uncertain percentage)
Earth: 6k3 for 25, +5 Lion/Crab, -5 Crane/Unicorn (a bit better than 50%)
FIre:7k2 for 20, +5 Unicorn/Scorpion, -5 Phoenix/Crane (a bit better than 50%)
Water: 6k2 for 25 +5 Crane/Crab, -5 Dragon/Lion (a bit better than 40%)
Void: 8k3+5 for 25 (effectively 8k3 for 20) +5 Unicorn/Dragon, -5 Phoenix/Crane (a bit better than 90%) (a bit better than 80% if no specialty bonus)
Crane is 45
Scorpion and Unicorn are 50
Lion is 50, with a floor of 45 for 3 years
Dragon is 55
Crab and Phoenix are 60
Worth noting here that even 40 is "The Emperor has ruled somewhat against what we like." We do have flexibility here, in ways that we might not have in earlier years.
Fire and water are 2 picks from ranking up. Void skill is 2 successful picks from ranking up. None of the others are close enough to matter, and with how soon we're going to be retiring, the existing ranks-ups aren't enormously likely to matter either. How likely are we to make 3 picks of the same type between now and retirement? Does anyone remember how many years we have left between now and our intended retirement date?
So... breaking that down further, and ignoring the exp system for now...
- Air has lots and lots of unclear. Could be nothing, could be super-important, and the warning that Togashi gave us is the best clue we have as to which one it is. Does anyone remember which update that was in? The particulars of that warning seem like they'd be really pertinent here.
- Earth seems like a generally somewhat useful pick. Success is only a bit over 50%, and it'll drain the treasury at a time when we might need that treasury for other things. Also, Clan Ratings aren't particularly bad for the moment, but even so, Crane/Unicorn isn't a particularly good combo to be dropping, and Lion/Crab isn't a particularly good pair to be raising. Also... it's talking about long-term benefits. We're about to head into a war with an existential threat. This is not the time to be optimizing for the long term.
- Fire is potentially important, given that we're going to ant battlefield coordination with not one by two different cultures, and Rokugani aren't so hot at doing that without Bad Things Happening. "slightly better than even odds" isn't terrible. On the clan ratings side, taking a hit on Crane isn't great, but improving both Scorpion and Unicorn certainly doesn't hurt. A reasonable pick. I'd certainly call it better than Earth.
- Water is potentially important, but mostly seems focused on stocking away for logistics. The success chance is the only one that drops below 40%, and we've been told that if we go too heavy into this plan, it's going to start to get ugly. The clan rating distribution isn't terrible, but the action as a whole seems kind of weak. I'd be signing a different tune if our treasurer were freaking out about it, but that's just not the impression that I'm getting from the interactions here.
- Void is the other really competitive option, combining a very high chance of success with an appropriate military focus. Of course... he might be able to figure it out even without our help, but the vibe I'm getting from him definitely suggests that he sees the extra focus as important, rather than as a "nice to have". The Clan Ratings arent' great, but the rest of it is looking pretty solid.
So... I guess in my mind it comes down to which of the three dangers you're more concerned about. Void will help us handle the enemy magics. Fire will help us avoid coming to blows with our allies. Air will help us with... whatever it is in the north.
On the matter of masteries:
- Doji Yuriko's focus is Diplomacy, so her mastery applies, giving a +2k0.
- Tsuruchi Etsuko's focus is Reform, which probably doesn't apply to road building
- Hida Ginchiyo's focus is on Defense, which this probably doesn't apply to. Arguably, this would actually fall on Togashi Shiko, but her stat is 4, and her focus is Balance, which means that she'd have the same +5k0 that non-focus Ginchiyo does. No change regardless.
- Yasuki Chitose's focus is on Growth. Taxing people and belt-tightening doesn't seem like a fit, there.
- Horiuchi Shem-Zhe's focus is on Reform. From a Jade Champion standpoint... honestly, I'd expect that "figure out this bizarre gaijin magic" actually fits that one pretty well. He probably gets the +2k0. Writing in below as if he does.
Air: 9k3 for ????, clan rating effects unknown (uncertain percentage)
Earth: 6k3 for 25, +5 Lion/Crab, -5 Crane/Unicorn (a bit better than 50%)
FIre:7k2 for 20, +5 Unicorn/Scorpion, -5 Phoenix/Crane (a bit better than 50%)
Water: 6k2 for 25 +5 Crane/Crab, -5 Dragon/Lion (a bit better than 40%)
Void: 8k3+5 for 25 (effectively 8k3 for 20) +5 Unicorn/Dragon, -5 Phoenix/Crane (a bit better than 90%) (a bit better than 80% if no specialty bonus)
Crane is 45
Scorpion and Unicorn are 50
Lion is 50, with a floor of 45 for 3 years
Dragon is 55
Crab and Phoenix are 60
Worth noting here that even 40 is "The Emperor has ruled somewhat against what we like." We do have flexibility here, in ways that we might not have in earlier years.
Fire and water are 2 picks from ranking up. Void skill is 2 successful picks from ranking up. None of the others are close enough to matter, and with how soon we're going to be retiring, the existing ranks-ups aren't enormously likely to matter either. How likely are we to make 3 picks of the same type between now and retirement? Does anyone remember how many years we have left between now and our intended retirement date?
So... breaking that down further, and ignoring the exp system for now...
- Air has lots and lots of unclear. Could be nothing, could be super-important, and the warning that Togashi gave us is the best clue we have as to which one it is. Does anyone remember which update that was in? The particulars of that warning seem like they'd be really pertinent here.
- Earth seems like a generally somewhat useful pick. Success is only a bit over 50%, and it'll drain the treasury at a time when we might need that treasury for other things. Also, Clan Ratings aren't particularly bad for the moment, but even so, Crane/Unicorn isn't a particularly good combo to be dropping, and Lion/Crab isn't a particularly good pair to be raising. Also... it's talking about long-term benefits. We're about to head into a war with an existential threat. This is not the time to be optimizing for the long term.
- Fire is potentially important, given that we're going to ant battlefield coordination with not one by two different cultures, and Rokugani aren't so hot at doing that without Bad Things Happening. "slightly better than even odds" isn't terrible. On the clan ratings side, taking a hit on Crane isn't great, but improving both Scorpion and Unicorn certainly doesn't hurt. A reasonable pick. I'd certainly call it better than Earth.
- Water is potentially important, but mostly seems focused on stocking away for logistics. The success chance is the only one that drops below 40%, and we've been told that if we go too heavy into this plan, it's going to start to get ugly. The clan rating distribution isn't terrible, but the action as a whole seems kind of weak. I'd be signing a different tune if our treasurer were freaking out about it, but that's just not the impression that I'm getting from the interactions here.
- Void is the other really competitive option, combining a very high chance of success with an appropriate military focus. Of course... he might be able to figure it out even without our help, but the vibe I'm getting from him definitely suggests that he sees the extra focus as important, rather than as a "nice to have". The Clan Ratings arent' great, but the rest of it is looking pretty solid.
So... I guess in my mind it comes down to which of the three dangers you're more concerned about. Void will help us handle the enemy magics. Fire will help us avoid coming to blows with our allies. Air will help us with... whatever it is in the north.