It is, but the more or less baseless speculation on the first day seem to be a bit sense less as I haven't seen any reason that the first vote will just kill someone random.
Okay. So, typically, the only people who have data on the first day are the following: Mafia and Masons.
Mafia know who they are, and they know who isn't on their team. Now, they don't want to be seen as associated with each other, so a common mafia tactic is to vote for one or the other on the first day to show a bit of distance, but the votes won't typically
stay on that person. Additionally, they will try to not be the first or last vote on a bandwagon in general. (Last matters more in hammer games than majority games, and hammering someone who turns out to be town tends to look a bit suspicious to the untrained eye.)
Mafia goals are to get town lynched and not be lynched themselves, and they have the advantage of being able to work together to control the narrative. Depending on whether they're able to communicate during the day or not, that can be helpful. To them. So you want to watch for people who look like they're trying not to seem like they're cooperating but actually are.
That said, the other side of the coin is a Masonry. Masons typically are just people who can communicate amongst themselves. Masons know who each other are, and they can be really powerful as a solid voting bloc, so long as they're not found out right away. However, they're also easy to find and confirm bits. Now, an interesting thing is that sometimes masons end up with a traitor amongst them. This isn't a usual thing, but it's always a possibility, especially when there are three or more masons.
The final group that I haven't talked about is cult. Cult becomes a growing voting bloc as they convert more members. If you can ferret out the cult early, you win, but there's no indication that there's a cult in this game.
