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Fairly sure there have been loops where she beats Zuko, even kills him, and loses to Aang. I think I recall a mention of that in one of the early chapters. She had a period of loops where she was in full breakdown mode and remembered very little.
 
We've gotten confirmation that she's beaten Zuko, but no confirmation about beating Aang, I think.

Really, you have: you've killed Zuko at the Western Air Temple and at the Agni Kai quite a number of times, but you're still no closer to escaping this hateful cycle. That was the first possibility you eliminated. Whatever you have to do to escape, it doesn't require you to murder your brother.

Honestly, it's somewhat of a relief. Zuko turning out to be useless even for dying is so in-character that it reminds you not every constant of the universe is out to get you.

We've also confirmed that she eventually managed to beat Katara in one of the loops.

You regret, almost, that you won't be the one to face her this cycle. There was a time that the sight of her was ice down your spine, around your throat, against your eyes, a visceral reaction that sometimes broke your jaw open to screaming. You overcame it the only way you know how to overcome anything: you fought her, and you fought her, and you fought her, until you started to win, until you sublimated fear into confidence through the purity of violence.

It was painful. It was embarrassing. But it was necessary.
 
Also, part of the problem is that while Azula can (and sometimes has) beaten Zuko in direct combat, that's not the win condition of the loop? Beating Zuko isn't enough. Beating Katara isn't enough. Even beating Aang or Iroh might not be enough, if she ever gets to that point. If it comes to a fight at all, that's a fail condition for that Loop, seemingly.

Because the person that Azula needs to beat, really? Is herself. Until she can overcome the spiritual and mental chains that are forcing her into the behaviors that she has had ingrained into her, there can be no victory. The Final Boss of this Quest is almost certainly going to be Azula.
 
If she's so good at firebending, why can't she beat Zuko?
She did. Even half mad and in the middle of psychological breakdown after being abandoned by the only person she had left, she fought him to a stalemate, despite him using a complete unfamiliar style of bending she'd never even seen before while she was using the same style he's seen her use dozens of times. I don't know about you, but when a character is able to match a character with 3 or 4 plot advantages to the point where a single dirty trick, the kind you expect from a villainess, can tip the battle in their favor, that's being better than the opponent. Zuko has never been demonstrated and likely never will be demonstrated, to be a better bender than Azula.
 
Also, part of the problem is that while Azula can (and sometimes has) beaten Zuko in direct combat, that's not the win condition of the loop? Beating Zuko isn't enough. Beating Katara isn't enough. Even beating Aang or Iroh might not be enough, if she ever gets to that point. If it comes to a fight at all, that's a fail condition for that Loop, seemingly.

Because the person that Azula needs to beat, really? Is herself. Until she can overcome the spiritual and mental chains that are forcing her into the behaviors that she has had ingrained into her, there can be no victory. The Final Boss of this Quest is almost certainly going to be Azula.

I've been thinking that for, maybe not the last loop, but an important step of her character development to reach the last loop, is beating her dad in a fight.

At this point I think she has good odds if she's capable of pushing past her mental hangups. Though I admit that that's a big if. If nothing else, he definitely wouldn't expect her to know lightning redirection. (Ozai isn't quite on Palpatine's level of constantly using lightning that bites him in the ass, but he's probably alive mostly due to Zuko and Aang not actually wanting to kill him.)

A solid portion of her issues are directly tied to her relationship with her father, and her valuing his opinion of her. If she's at the point where she can outright go, "No, you're wrong,", then she has a solid chance of having had enough character development that she'll probably be able to break free of the loop.

And he'd probably have as little patience for her challenging him in public as he did for Zuko, meaning it might end in an Agni Kai. At that point, being able to prove to herself that he isn't some unassailable force (she knows that Aang beat him, but he's the Avatar so that's easy to internally justify to herself), and that she's better than him and doesn't have to live in his shadow, might just be exactly what she needs to be able to firmly step away from him in a moral sense.

Also, it'd be a big, cool, and emotionally painful fight, but, you know, mostly the character development thing.
 
"You know how." In the shadows of the throne room, Zuko's eyes are as bright as sunlight on the edge of a sword. "Maybe we're both tired of this fight, Azula, but that doesn't mean I'm afraid of it."

In another life, you should be sits on the tip of your tongue. But you have lost to this Zuko—the Zuko under the Comet, who shatters Sozin's legacy with Sozin's own power—too many times before. It serves you no purpose to pretend he has any reason to be afraid of you.

Let's not undersell Zuko here. Azula's looped her way into a pretty transcendent level of bending, but she explicitly admits that, as far as Zuko should know, they are basically equals, and she's lost to him many times.
 
And he'd probably have as little patience for her challenging him in public as he did for Zuko, meaning it might end in an Agni Kai. At that point, being able to prove to herself that he isn't some unassailable force (she knows that Aang beat him, but he's the Avatar so that's easy to internally justify to herself), and that she's better than him and doesn't have to live in his shadow, might just be exactly what she needs to be able to firmly step away from him in a moral sense.

Also, it'd be a big, cool, and emotionally painful fight, but, you know, mostly the character development thing.

I'm not so certain that the fight would be very emotional, largely because I don't think Ozai is capable of the same kind of self-awareness that made the Iroh fight emotional. I think the lead up to the fight will be emotionally frought and the aftermath more so, whether it happens in that loop or the next, but both combatants will be two focused on the fight itself for us to see much their. My guess is that Azula would go into the fight either determined or scared out of her mind, while Ozai will be his normal, self-assured. The fight will also go roughly as both combatant expect, by which I mean extremely hard fought, with Ozai having something of an edge, right up until that suddenly isn't the case and Azula is just winning.

And to be perfectly honest, the resulting 'oh shit' reaction from Azuula defeating Ozai by the Gaang would be hilarious.

I can see it now.

Zuko: Azula, I can't let you take the throne!
Azula: What are you talking about Zuzu? My coronation was last week. Did you not get the invitation? We were all very disappointed when you missed it. Especially Mai.
 
Yeah part of the reason Azula has been in the loops for so long is that her primary problem solving tool- "Do it over and over and over and over and over and over again until it's perfect"- is not the right one for the job. The way she talks about Aang, I doubt she's beaten him before in the loops (though I'd have to reread to be sure) but even if she could, that wouldn't get her out of them. This isn't a problem she can fight or deceive or charm her way out of, which is why she's been trying shit like "actually openly talking to people" in the last few loops. She has tried nearly everything else and is starting to run out of her list of things to try.
 
She was probably successful at beating normal Aang, but I'm not convinced she's been able to handle Avatar State Aang. Or maybe I missed a line that refers to that.
 
The trick is that Avatar State Aang isn't guaranteed to show up unless he gets a hit to that pressure point in his back. So even with multiple loops, Azula may never have faced the full Avatar.
 
Also, didn't she already kill him in canon at the end of book 2? Sure, he wasn't a fully realized Avatar or anything but she absolutely did gank him mid-Avatar State.
 
The trick is that Avatar State Aang isn't guaranteed to show up unless he gets a hit to that pressure point in his back. So even with multiple loops, Azula may never have faced the full Avatar.
Which happens consistently when he fights Ozai, even if the events leading up to it would have affected the mindsets of either one. Some things are simply fated.
 
I've been thinking that for, maybe not the last loop, but an important step of her character development to reach the last loop, is beating her dad in a fight

Fighting him I think is less an actual character development step but the inevitable consequence of Azula attaining the character development to stand up to her father in his presence.

Like say the fact that Azula is being steadily convinced that her "Burn the Earth Kingdom to the ground" plan was her worst idea ever

(Which because we are talking about Azula and Ozai means there will be fighting.)

Because honestly I can see Ozai cheating once he realizes he is losing the fight.

Second thought:

I'm kinda waiting for Azula to notice that her friends will react to her changing.
 
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Not to mention, Ozai unlocking the full Avatar state on accident is a plot consequence. Ozai is a malignant narcissist drunk on the most power he has ever had politically and martially (he literally screams about how he has all the power while lighting everything on fire.) And so he makes one mistake Azula did not when fighting the Avatar- he plays with his food. The whole fight he's gloating, especially right before he restores the Avatar state on accident, and when he does break him out of that ball of rock and restore it in the doing, rather than continuing to strike to finish him off for sure, he walks closer first so he can gloat a little more. Ozai is always gonna give Aang the time and impetus he needs, because as a character he can't not.
 
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Wait, does that make Ozai....Goku!?
More like Frieza if you had to make a DBZ comparison, given he was wasting time not out of a desire for a true stand up fight with an equal but so he could gloat some more. He even completely loses his shit when the hero gets a crazy powerup and tries to kill him one last time when he stays his hand at the last moment and doesn't finish him off.
 
That wasn't really the context that I meant, but good on you for finding a definition.

Mental in competitive sports (I know it from video games but that's cuz I'm a nerd) relates to the idea that how a competitor is feeling, their 'mental' state, can have just as much of an impact on someone's performance as their skill level, their reaction time, their overall experience, etc.

A prodigy fighter can still lose to a middling fighter if they're off their game, if they're upset, if they're having the worst week of their life, etc.

It doesn't matter how much stronger you are compared to your foes if you always end up fighting them when you're completely off the handle and freaking out.
 
I was not, but I think this is it (posting for anyone else who wasn't familiar).
Mental is the ability to get into your opponent's head to such a degree that you can essentially play the game for them by predicting how they will react to any given action and therefore pick the action that lets you counter whatever they're about to do.

I'm on my potato right now so I can't look it up, but there's a video of a finals match in Street Fighter II from a few years back where the eventual winner was on their last legs but turned it around by achieving mental on their enemy and baiting them into using a specific flashy and extremely hard to block combo. Because they knew exactly what was coming they then proceeded to full block it at 0 HP and then win the match while their opponent was tilted.
 
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