Oh wow, nobody linked it before me. Here you go.
I've been getting distracted, and then something I was waiting on came up.
Getting some good Townreads on people is always useful, but scum hunting is the way that you do it. You need to lynch someone in order to not waste the Day, and if everyone is hinting at the same information then it just becomes common knowledge.
That's true. Now here's the question. Was gonna put my lynch vote on the biggest vote to hopefully get some pressure and discussion happening... But really, it's just Nictis and Absum voting the inactive. I highly doubt more pressure will get anything out of them. So come on, let's go find someone. I don't have any strong suspicion, and it looks like others are the same. But please. It's been more than 24 hours, it's time to get a ball rolling. Fuck, go for me if you want, that'll at least give me something to do.
Sorry for being quiet today. Being dead wrong about Rosen (and if I am honest having them get really mad about it) kind of shook my confidence. Most of my reads were based on the idea that Rosen and TurtleDucks were probably scum, and while we still don't know about TurtleDucks/ @ComiTurtle , Rosen being town means I have to reexamine everything from a different perspective.
As far as I can tell, all mafia games basically have an order of operations - you give your target for the night, and then the GM decides based on that order what resolves in what order, but it all effectively happens simultaneously. You don't get to know if you've even succeeded until the night is over, if I have it right. So, no, they can't.
QT actually makes a lot of sense, TBH. The big targets (if the people in question are actually town) are probably Evenstar, Nictis, and maybe me? But there are kinda secondary town players, people who are good but not nearly as active and defining, like QT and maybe Cyri. The people in the first groups are absolute PR magnets. Nictis probably gets targeted with more night actions in one game than I've ever been targeted with. Scum's probably paranoid about watchers, doctors, jailors, etc. It's a much lower risk to target someone who town probably won't be targeting.
I never thought about it like that.
Well, another possibility is that killing specifically QT over say Cyri or maybe Absum has some benefit to scum. They could be trying to influence the vote. I've been thinking that there's probably at least one scum on the -Rosen lynch, but it could be that there's none and they're intentionally lowering the number left so people like me feel like we have more of a chance to lynch scum (and then end up only hitting more town). I'm not sure specifically how well that theory holds up, but you can see the ways in which who specifically dies can give us hints at their strategy, especially over time.
I'd like to see your general opinion on any of the still living Rosen voters if you're volunteering for targets.
I'm not sure what to feel about being ignored after RL made me radio silent on this yesterday, I haven't been very active, and you did call out some of the other lurkers. You probably just forgot me, but it does make me wonder if you were hoping someone else would notice me not being in the list or something, but that's probably too much wine. Probably.
I've been lazy today (and yesterday too I guess). I never did the ISO I wanted to. I'll see if I can do two tomorrow but well
Well, on the one hand, true enough. On the other hand, you don't want to end up with like 3 of the final 6 players having almost no content. And last time I asked about this I was told (and convinced) it was better to pressure and lynch for low activity early (assuming ofc no real other reasons present themselves).
That's not actually a read? In fact, while I really really doubt I'll actually stick to you, that hews closer to saying that you do have reads but don't want to give them, which I can't really agree with.
It is, however, my answer to your questioning for reads. There is very little point in saying "this guy feels vaguely suspicious" without having a logical foundation and argument prepared for why that person is suspicious. All that does is open up to suspicion, paranoia, and false reads on either the people I find merely weird or on myself for seemingly appearing to paint people as scum without a solid foundation for it. It's as I think either Nictis or TPK told me a while ago: there really isn't a use for mere "feeling" like someone is scum or not if you aren't ready to actually be able to offer a case for why they are suspicious. So no, I don't consider myself to have any reads. By your guys's general definition, I would have reads that are "lightly town" or "lightly scum" or "blank," but there is no point in saying things that can so easily shift on the drop of a dime. Those types of so-called "reads" are effectively pointless, especially when we still don't have enough variety of night and day action to give them a sliver of worth.
Probably TPK, I actually think that gutreads have their own place. Your subconscious can be pretty good at finding those niggling little details even if you can't place what is bothering you or figure out how to explain it. As long as you preface it with something that makes it apparent that it's not 'Reasons' or something more solid they can still help, if only to get someone with a different perspective looking in the same direction. For example "There's something about X..." or "This post feels strange to me..." or one of my personal favorites "I might just be paranoid, but..."
I can't say you're wrong, but the idea doesn't feel good to me.. At the very least, I can try pressuring those who might respond during the day.