- Location
- The Bayou, Everglades
More analysing.
They definitely want to attack the void-space over Dis. I want to avoid this, but which approach is more likely to succeed in that?
Plan Subtle approach destroys a substantial amount of their escorts, possibly making them focus their fleets on protecting the transports even more and therefore not attacking void-spaces we defend.
Plan Wreck destroys even more of their escorts, as well as some targets of opportunity, making any battles over Dis slightly less favourable for them, but probably nothing to write home about. But it also tells them that they are being predicted.
Knowing that they are being predicted, the Valinor high command has to wonder: "How long have these bastards been predicting this invasion? How much do they know, and have they already prepared enough for us that they think they can win?" It's gotta make them nervous about this entire war, paranoid, and second guessing if they are doing enough.
Plan Wreck might make the enemy think that they are walking into a trap. But knowing that the Trust is also being attacked by a large Waaagh, and not knowing exactly how much we know, they shouldn't get desperate just yet, just nervous and cautious.
So long as the enemy think they are making progress, they won't try anything drastic, is my impression from what Durin has been telling us. They'll get their troops on the ground, and if we conserve our ground harassment, they should think; "They can predict us, they can harass us, but they can't stop us". Maybe.
That said, in order to maximise their available resources, the enemy will want to move all their ground forces before even thinking about sacrificing their battleships (besides, they have to get their armies in position to take advantage of unfortified breaches from kamikaze attacks).
Then, would they attack the Dis void-space during this wave, or wait until they actually need that void-space? The former lets them apply a larger, less harassed force to that attack, the latter lets them escort their transports with a fleet that hasn't been depleted by a serious battle. I think they'll probably attack, and then retreat when they see that the resistance they're dealing with isn't worth it to them - not yet.
They don't know right now that they'll likely have to kamikaze, and again, they'll have to guard their transports all the closer with their main fleet if they are deprived of enough escorts.
Furthermore, if they kamikaze while their armies still aren't in position, then we can fortify whatever breaches they might score in the meantime.
With plan Subtle, they are all the more likely to underestimate the harassment we'll be able to apply, and therefore to postpone the battle above Dis.
The enemy is likely to take the void-space over Dis at around the same time whichever option we go with here.
At some point, we probably will have to go Blatant. If that point is early enough, being subtle here will have been for naught.
All of which leaves us with these question: Will that point be reached before or after they're done unloading all their troops? Will we be best served just going full blatant here from the start?
@Durin
How nervous will the enemy become if they figure out that they are being predicted?
They definitely want to attack the void-space over Dis. I want to avoid this, but which approach is more likely to succeed in that?
Plan Subtle approach destroys a substantial amount of their escorts, possibly making them focus their fleets on protecting the transports even more and therefore not attacking void-spaces we defend.
Plan Wreck destroys even more of their escorts, as well as some targets of opportunity, making any battles over Dis slightly less favourable for them, but probably nothing to write home about. But it also tells them that they are being predicted.
Knowing that they are being predicted, the Valinor high command has to wonder: "How long have these bastards been predicting this invasion? How much do they know, and have they already prepared enough for us that they think they can win?" It's gotta make them nervous about this entire war, paranoid, and second guessing if they are doing enough.
Plan Wreck might make the enemy think that they are walking into a trap. But knowing that the Trust is also being attacked by a large Waaagh, and not knowing exactly how much we know, they shouldn't get desperate just yet, just nervous and cautious.
So long as the enemy think they are making progress, they won't try anything drastic, is my impression from what Durin has been telling us. They'll get their troops on the ground, and if we conserve our ground harassment, they should think; "They can predict us, they can harass us, but they can't stop us". Maybe.
That said, in order to maximise their available resources, the enemy will want to move all their ground forces before even thinking about sacrificing their battleships (besides, they have to get their armies in position to take advantage of unfortified breaches from kamikaze attacks).
Then, would they attack the Dis void-space during this wave, or wait until they actually need that void-space? The former lets them apply a larger, less harassed force to that attack, the latter lets them escort their transports with a fleet that hasn't been depleted by a serious battle. I think they'll probably attack, and then retreat when they see that the resistance they're dealing with isn't worth it to them - not yet.
They don't know right now that they'll likely have to kamikaze, and again, they'll have to guard their transports all the closer with their main fleet if they are deprived of enough escorts.
Furthermore, if they kamikaze while their armies still aren't in position, then we can fortify whatever breaches they might score in the meantime.
With plan Subtle, they are all the more likely to underestimate the harassment we'll be able to apply, and therefore to postpone the battle above Dis.
Actually, with the orbital defences and fire support from Dis, Durin says that "there is a decent chance that you will be able to hold the area directly above Dis for a considerable time". A "considerable time" might be until all their troops have been landed. Then they'll have no more use for the fleet besides orbital support or kamikaze, so they have plenty of reason to fight for the void over Dis, and none not to do so.
The enemy is likely to take the void-space over Dis at around the same time whichever option we go with here.
At some point, we probably will have to go Blatant. If that point is early enough, being subtle here will have been for naught.
All of which leaves us with these question: Will that point be reached before or after they're done unloading all their troops? Will we be best served just going full blatant here from the start?
@Durin
How nervous will the enemy become if they figure out that they are being predicted?
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