Army of Liberty: a Fantasy Revolutionary Warfare Quest
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Red Rationalist
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Hmm, that is a fair point. Charging the 31st through Sarnscheid is possible and probably better. Swapped the path out for that.
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My critique of the plan
I do not understand why you are bracing here. Both having these units ready charge or ready shoot would protect them from charges of the 8th and also protects our artillery (if the ready fires are set to fire into flanks). TBH i feel like we dont need 5 ap on protecting agaisnt the 8th, spending more ap on moving forward may allow them to actually influence the battle next turn.
TBH my vibes feel like we should be able to rout with just the humans. Wait, what is actually routing the 15th? the 33rd routing?
huh, wait, why is this producing 3 checks? 1 from melee,
huh, wait bracing doesnt really matter anymore, charging them still produces morale checks? that feels kinda silly that we can just attack the brace and not care about it.
Im still sad if we cant have guillory move to the north and just capture the entire enemy army by blocking the valley
I do not understand why you are bracing here. Both having these units ready charge or ready shoot would protect them from charges of the 8th and also protects our artillery (if the ready fires are set to fire into flanks). TBH i feel like we dont need 5 ap on protecting agaisnt the 8th, spending more ap on moving forward may allow them to actually influence the battle next turn.
TBH my vibes feel like we should be able to rout with just the humans. Wait, what is actually routing the 15th? the 33rd routing?
huh, wait, why is this producing 3 checks? 1 from melee,
huh, wait bracing doesnt really matter anymore, charging them still produces morale checks? that feels kinda silly that we can just attack the brace and not care about it.
Im still sad if we cant have guillory move to the north and just capture the entire enemy army by blocking the valley
Hmm, a bit aggressive for my taste, I do worry about not Ready Charging with 108th, since that does risk our artillery in case of a sudden counterattack. That said, such a charge would be suicide, so I do not think it is coming. And we do have the Hobbs doing Ready Fire, which counts for something.
So overall, I think I could support this plan. Now is the time to be aggressive, since he seems to be pulling his artillery back. Crucially, we also have enough reserves to actually recover and not instantly lose if our attack on his center does end up failing.
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Could you clarify what kind of charge you are worried about?
Red Rationalist
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Yes. The 15th Dwa are currently sitting at -22 stress, so they act as conduit for a chain rout.
Hmm, not quite sure what I have written there. I think it's 2 from being charged by the humans, +1 from melee. That's good, but on it's own we just have a 70% chance. The routing does make this into a 99.8%, though compensating for this via cavalry charge is also a good idea. You never know, one human could be critically hit.
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Red Rationalist
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Yeah, I think we both just lick our wounds if the charge fails. In that event, Trotha is probably just going to retreat intact given the state of both sides.
Well, basically Von Trotha's retreat being bait and his cavalry (8th and 1st) doing a U-turn and going after our artillery.
But yeah, that is paranoia talking, since such a move would sacrifice his own artillery to Guillory's Hussars. He has no real reserves left. So I do think we can be aggressive here.
Red Rationalist
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No, I'm not. Mainly because casulties have so many interrelated parts and can be thrown off by simple bad luck. I can't give any chances on that, it heavily depends on our artillery rolls, his artillery ready firing orders, the chances of our unit being routed on the way and so on. It's likely the 33rd get an extra shock check, but I am relying on the 55th as the saving element that should get through no matter what.
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The 8th can be stopped by having some of our western units on ready fire into flanks, but the 1st hussars cant really be stopped. Im not sure even a interception would work for that, but also i feel like it would still be worth for us if they do charge and hit an artillery cause we capture the 1st hussars and more artiller yin exchange.
No, i mean that every 100 casualties adds a permanent 1 stress to the unit
Chimeraguard
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How many Ready Fires do we expect the enemy to have from their artillery? Aside from that, I'm good with one last push.
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We expect 4 ready fire - Human volunteer, provisional elven, 66th and 75th
Red Rationalist
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Oh, the penalty to rolls. No, mainly because it doesn't matter when your rolling an average of morale modifier of -21. I'm only including current ones, predicting when causulties will be inflicted is a headache.
@EagerListener had a good post counting this out. 3-4 depending on what exactly Trotha did, something that should probably translate into 2 simple checks or 1 with double? disadvantage. Most of our units are incredibly likely to survive it (high morale and 0 stress, with the 72nd having inspiring which makes survival far more likely). And I included a lot of contingencies to make sure the line routs if one element fails.
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Chimeraguard
We do deserve to exist.
Won't it be more morale checks than that? Most of the artillery in that list that's Ready Firing is hidden from view right now (I think it was said that us being able to see the 75th is an error?), so there's gonna be a bunch of Ambush morale checks, right?
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Im pretty sure that only changes at the end of the turn, if we assume its like the changes to combat modifier. I just think that it can be quite relevant, cause each stress at the beginning of the turn is quite signficiant, its a 1 modifier on each morale roll we roll.
Yes, we probably lose the humans this turn
Red Rationalist
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Ah, let me think. The Prov. Elv. Art. fired during T4, so they are out in their current position. The Hum Vol Art fired during T4 and probably can't get a better view. The 75th was confirmed to get an ambush, the 66th might. So yeah, that's 2 ambush checks, though ones that will probably get triggered by the hussars first. The 55th can tank those due to having a pretty high base morale modifier (5+3 = +8), where it would take at least 5 to actually rout them. We are going to take some stress, but I'm reasonably confident our units will make it unrouted if the hussars tank the ambushes.
Red Rationalist
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The way I see this play out is them having a ready charge + melee, intercepting and one unit of hussars crashing into them, thus the cavalry making 1 disadv. check and 2 normal checks against each other (ambush + melee). Very high chance of routing the HM hussars and one of Guillory's units, but the exchange would still benefit us in terms of momentum.
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[X] Plan Taking A Sledgehammer into The Gunfight
Looks good to me. As discussed there are a couple possible failure states in here - some good luck + heroics allowing the royalist hussars to run Guillory off, or his artillery rolling a critical hit and routing something in the center - but any plan suffers if your luck's bad. And even if things go unbelievably wrong, yeah, that probably just means von Trotha is able to make a clean getaway.
Looks good to me. As discussed there are a couple possible failure states in here - some good luck + heroics allowing the royalist hussars to run Guillory off, or his artillery rolling a critical hit and routing something in the center - but any plan suffers if your luck's bad. And even if things go unbelievably wrong, yeah, that probably just means von Trotha is able to make a clean getaway.
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A little under half the plan lines don't have their boxes marked.
Red Rationalist
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Thanks, corrected it.
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Hm? Yeah that works, what I mean is that if I had the attention and drive to refine a plan for four hours again I think it would be possible to have guillorys hussars walk north of all the artillery and stand in the valley con Trotha wants to escape through, trappinf his entire army.
With them ready charging allowing them to deal with the 1st hussars.
Could you maybe clarify what the purpose of the hobgoblin actions in your plan are @Red Rationalist ?
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Just to note, the visualization puts the 28th in the wrong spot, they're one W. As for the 60th they're either probably W, NW, or E of the current position of the 66th. And also the orders lack specification for the 200th facing when bracing, it would default to NE which I don't think we want since I think the brace are a precaution against the 8th.
And to expand my thoughts on this. We know that the 60th moved this turn, into the position of the 66th. Either the 66th moved this turn or last turn in order for the 60th to have a spot to move into. Given that Trotha moved the 28th forward last turn, I'm unsure if Trotha would move the 66th back or to the side. So I think 3 ready fire artillery is probably more likely.
They kinda have to be incredibly optimistic to declare war right away instead of just waiting 3 weeks for most of their armies to arrive first near Arne, and then invade. I wonder how many people in Norn predicted the invasion wouldn't go smoothly, as I think some would have realized if the Revolution was actually incredibly weak militarily, then the Royalist would have already won at Mauvais Plain, and the various royalist uprisings that occurred after the Revolution.
[X] Plan Taking A Sledgehammer into The Gunfight