My post was made as an warning because I realized that we almost made the classical mistake everyone makes everytime a situation like this happens. Where the players all try to be rational and make well-considered decisions, but then failed to account for the idiots crashing a cart into something, throwing everything in the crapper.
Perhaps that won't happen here.
However, you fundamentally misunderstand the dangers involved. You are arguing "its equally possible that they become disorganized and thus cannot take offensive action". When in actuality that's actually the most dangerous situation. If their leadership was intact and on top form, they'd be able to organize the Ma'on and keep their members under control, and therefore make plans, build up their strength and then strike on favorable terms.
The fact that they are reeling makes it far more likely that someone among their ranks will lash out in rage. Because they are a very large sect. And with the Grand Synod right in our neighborhood, you don't actually need more than 10 idiots doing something to give the Sword-Altar all the justification it sought to provoke.
Maybe it wont happen. But you havent actually argued in a way that make it less likely. And ultimately, our chances of avoiding such a worse case scenario is defnitely higher if we are allied with the Ma'on and thus can see what's going on, and able to help shore up their leadership and provide support to avoid some idiot lashing out blindly in rage.
