The Long Night Part Two: Sparks at Midnight: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k)

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Final Judgement: Is now useful, but does not seem worth much of Tranth's beyond just resizing USPR for Golem and Stealth ships.
There's always a chance of crit though, just like how crit on VAOPR that gave it extra +1 power (though in case of ultimate reactors I think we would most likely receive +HP and hulks).
Crew survival is of uniquely lower value for Golem because of the -30% Crew trait, but still nice.
However it's still a model that will most likely have highest chance of being destroyed (aside from Hails perhaps), and it's one of the most numerous as well. Even with -30% crew modifier any crew loss mitigation is wellcome.
 
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Also crit fishing is not a good use of actions just in general IMO, crits are a bonus, they are not something one should bank on because we do not know what we would get even if one did come along.
Well to be fair in Embers we can get a crit by rolling a nat2 if our bonuses are sufficiently large, so for some actions counting on a crit makes sense. For example Tranth's ship designing is almost guaranteed to give the most basic kind of a crit at least, and is even repeatable so if we consider it worth his time we could fish for Greater Crits. It even makes sense in universe I believe so it would not be munchkining.

That said I can't think of a design that would be worth that.
 
Fair Enough, but @Sir LagsAlot I thought that we were doing the Orichalcum Terminator armorthis turn since it would be more useful to keep our héroes alive...
If you're looking for Orichalcum Terminator Armor I'd direct you towards Tranth's section where I'm invested enough action years into it to complete it.
We have WoG that we don't have New Model Navy defense ships yes, so this is a nosiderable waste. I strongly advise selling the CPs.
Alright.
I would rather read about the most commons planetary governments in the Trust.

Understanding the Trust (What are the most common forms of planetary government in the Imperial Trust?) - Bonus Action
Done.
This seems extremely suspicious to me, for what possible reason would we not finish this treasure trove this turn other than imminent incursion? I mean Chaos knows that something is coming up, but so clearly saying that we expect it next turn seems very unwise.
I discussed it on Discord and it was decided that so long as we do it this turn that the action years can be shifted around a bit as Avernus is known for having weird tech development for a variety of reasons.
These seem more than valuable enough to do even if the Fulcrum fails to me. Relying on Chaos giving us time next turn seems very risky. Eldar will help ward Dis, but if we do Daemonbane ourselves (do Eldar even have that ward?) they will just add a different one on top instead.
The wards are valuable considering they'd help seal breaches but I'd rate mass arcane fulcrum use as even more valuable considering the sheer bull shit we've seen fulcrums used for in the past. And, we've got WoG from Durin that the Eldar will implement the wards we don't unless we implement them in which case they'll layer additional wards on top something I noted in the post you're quoting.
Not out of, necessarily, more likely just armor them with. UD Armor, not UD Body.

Armoring Hive citadels with UDA - Administratum
Works for me.
 
I discussed it on Discord and it was decided that so long as we do it this turn that the action years can be shifted around a bit as Avernus is known for having weird tech development for a variety of reasons.
I haven't seen any WoG on this in the QaA channel, and for this I would like one. Have asked.

I really can't think of a reason for why we would prioritize OATA over being able to start implementing the staggering pile new techs next turn unless we expect an incursion then. This includes First World Ship massive STC bonuses you know.

The wards are valuable considering they'd help seal breaches but I'd rate mass arcane fulcrum use as even more valuable considering the sheer bull shit we've seen fulcrums used for in the past. And, we've got WoG from Durin that the Eldar will implement the wards we don't unless we implement them in which case they'll layer additional wards on top something I noted in the post you're quoting.
We have access to just one Fulcrum to my knowledge, and have we even fortified it enough to hold it for long during an incursion? Seems that me that what this will do is free up Aria to Null Zone daemons rather than more or better Fulcrum action.
 
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So add +5% Hulks to everything, assume that every +5% Hulks equals -2% Cost/CP on average with more the more we expect the ship to be destroyed so more benefit to smaller ships and Brutes.
Though keep in mind that would also mean less benefit than that on bigger ships.

Zephyr-A: UPR, +23% HP, +15% Hulks
Looks like it could work? Still +4% cost on average and HP is least important for Harassers, but escort so +Hulks has higher value... but Zephyr is really damn sturdy for an Escort so there is that. Probably viable I think, but I don't expect much improvement.
I don't think you get a net improvement there. Even if we set HP = Shields, and Durability = Damage, that would be 9.4% increase in HP+Shields /2 = 4.7%. But HP isn't worth as much as shields, and durability isn't worth as much as damage on a harasser. So it would be significantly lower. If you value shields twice as much as HP it's only a 5.9% increase in durability, and if you value weapons at twice durability that's a 2% increase in effectiveness.

.3*.5+.7 = .85 vs 1.1*(.45*.5+.55) = .8525 Replacement cost is actually marginally higher. The +10% gets worse the lower the base hulk rate is, which has some non-intuitive effects. Maybe it would make more sense if the 2% price per 5% hulks was including effect of saving crew?

Compared to Golem: +9% HP, +38% Shields, -0.5 Speed, +25% (better) Weapons, +15% Hulks, +11% Resource/CP.
Sold.
This feels like a poor comparison since you were already shifting to a VAOPR model. You're clearly comparing this to the current Golem, instead of the Golem-A you had designed.

Compared to Golem-D has +18% HP and +15% Hulks for +11% Resource/CP.
Probably not? Depends on if we rely on -D for Frigate duties too, which reminds me.
-D compared to -AU: -24% HP, -14% Shields, -20% Hulks. Ok, no. -D would require a -AU variant.
-DU compared to -AU: -10% HP, -14% Shields, -5% Hulks. Hm. I am not sure if such a difference is worth two variants.
The Golem AU seems the best version to me. If we were going to make a Golem D it seems like we'd be better off using a VAOPR, which conveniently would also save us developing the UPR.

Hail: UOPR, +21% HP, +25% Shields, +10% Hulks
Definitely worth it, especially since I suspect that adding those +10% Hulks on Hails already staggering Hulk chance increases its value. But even if not, still worth it.
Durability is worth less on Harass, but I do tend to agree this is worth it in itself. But I'm not sure it's worth the Tranth time it would take to develop UOPR.

Gridarvol: UOPR, +12% HP, +15% Hulks
Definitely worth it because Psy-Cannon specialist. Otherwise not.

Gridarvol-R: UOPR, +22% HP, +15% Hulks
I don't think so. G-R is absurdly tough already and not even a full Brute so we do not expect many losses. Could be wrong though.
I don't really agree with the Gridarvol being worth it. There's no increase to its weapons, so even just a simple estimate will put that in the negatives.

Boulder: UPR, +12% HP, +15% Hulks
Dunno. Probably not.
I still think USP reactor makes more sense. You can drop OPS1 for it and get +40.5 HP for 12.75 shields, which is a very nice trade. That also gets you to +20% hulks. It still probably isn't worth it, but it's closer.

I agreed with your thoughts on the other ships.

Conclusions

Definitely useful for Golem, Hail, and probably for Fissure. Some borderline viable designs too.
All the variants are used, USPR, UPR, and UOPR which I like quite a bit!

Final Judgement: Is now useful, but does not seem worth much of Tranth's beyond just resizing USPR for Golem and Stealth ships.
USPR for golem and stealth ships is my conclusion. UOPR would be useful for Hail, but probably not worth Tranth's time.

Crew survival is of uniquely lower value for Golem because of the -30% Crew trait, but still nice.
Golem crew needs are 4200, while our previous frigates had 5000. So it's only 16% relative to previous frigates. It appears without that trait crew needs would have been 20% higher than previous frigates. It's weird.

It's also the ship that dies the most, so any mitigation there has outsized effect.

There's always a chance of crit though, just like how crit on VAOPR that gave it extra +1 power (though in case of ultimate reactors I think we would most likely receive +HP and hulks).
Conversely Enerael has been assuming the +++Hulks applies across the various sizes, while the statement of Durin only confirmed that the +HP% would be across the various sizes. So the higher power levels could actually be worse than our speculation. I've been content to assume that the +++Hulks applies because they need it, but if we're talking about possibility of things being different from speculation we need to also consider the possibility they'll be worse.
 
We have access to just one Fulcrum to my knowledge, and have we even fortified it enough to hold it for long during an incursion? Seems that me that what this will do is free up Aria to Null Zone daemons rather than more or better Fulcrum action.
Fulcrums pop up all over during an incursion and with Avernus awake and mostly unchained for the coming incursion due to how dangerous it is don't be surprised when there's all the arcane fulcrums around for us to use and I'd note that the one arcane fulcrum we have is just the only arcane fulcrum that stayed around after the last incursion. Also, massive amounts of people can use any given fulcrum that's pretty much what the Lizardmen do to cast their best stuff so we're going to get far more "Fulcrum action" and it's going to be of much higher quality as well as we'll have a large number of people using them who can cast for example choir mass banishment empowered by a fulcrum.
 
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This feels like a poor comparison since you were already shifting to a VAOPR model. You're clearly comparing this to the current Golem, instead of the Golem-A you had designed.
Good point. I thought that the only refit I would do to Golem other than the Destroyer one would be to swap the Lance for DIs, but come to think of it that also involves swapping SWM for OPW 1, and with Slightly Depower Engines I would be adding that too. Gimme a min.

Compared to Golem with DIs and 3.5 Speed: +9% HP, +19% Shields, +15% Hulks, +11% Resource/CP.

Still worth it seems to me.

The Golem AU seems the best version to me. If we were going to make a Golem D it seems like we'd be better off using a VAOPR, which conveniently would also save us developing the UPR.
So -D and -AU variants? Yeah looks like the best option currently. Mind, I expect another buff to Ultimate Reactors still, they are only just barely useable now it seems.

Durability is worth less on Harass, but I do tend to agree this is worth it in itself. But I'm not sure it's worth the Tranth time it would take to develop UOPR.
Yeah it wouldn't I bet, its one ship, not that great an improvement, and very advanced technology so it should be high DC a take many Tranth years.

I don't really agree with the Gridarvol being worth it. There's no increase to its weapons, so even just a simple estimate will put that in the negatives.
Gridarvols value lies almost entirely in its Psychic Cannon, the expense to keep it a bit safer is well worth it. See that UDB for example. Also the cannons cost should not be multiplied by +10% Cost/CP, that would make no sense to me.

I still think USP reactor makes more sense. You can drop OPS1 for it and get +40.5 HP for 12.75 shields, which is a very nice trade. That also gets you to +20% hulks. It still probably isn't worth it, but it's closer.

I agreed with your thoughts on the other ships.
Hm, good point, I saw either +20% base HP for +25% Shields and picked Shields. Silly of me, should have checked. I will probably go back and edit the post, but need sleep now.

Fulcrums pop up all over during an incursion and with Avernus awake and mostly unchained for the coming incursion due to how dangerous it is don't be surprised when there's all the arcane fulcrums around for us to use and I'd note that the one arcane fulcrum we have is just the only arcane fulcrum that stayed around after the last incursion. Also, massive amounts of people can use any given fulcrum that's pretty much what the Lizardmen do to cast their best stuff so we're going to get for more "Fulcrum action" and it's going to be of much higher quality as well as we'll have a large number of people using them who can cast for example choir mass banishment empowered by a fulcrum.
Hm, OK then. Could another Telepathica hero do the warding instead though? It really seems rather important, and relying on Eldar to do it means them not making an additional ward of their own as I understand it.
 
Hm, OK then. Could another Telepathica hero do the warding instead though? It really seems rather important, and relying on Eldar to do it means them not making an additional ward of their own as I understand it.
We could have Rids do them if Aria fails her first fulcrum action but if she succeeds just have Rids do what he's doing now I guess.

Edit: I think I'll have Rids do the wards + divination attack, and Aria do fulcrum + blank research if people want to go this way.
 
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So -D and -AU variants? Yeah looks like the best option currently.
I'm still hesitant to make the Destroyer Golem because it adds another ship type, and I really like our streamlined fleet. If you go that route though, I'd be very tempted to upgrade Zephyr to speed 8 instead of OPW2 or OPS2. That would let it harass even speed 6 ships. The only enemy ships that are speed 6 right now are Cobras. But you were expecting Chaos to get +1 speed on their ships from either rituals or tech improvements, which would make the rest of their escorts and light cruisers speed 6 as well. If that's a serious threat then speed 8 on raiders could be very valuable.

Maybe IC we have a better idea how likely it is for Chaos to boost their ships' speeds.

Mind, I expect another buff to Ultimate Reactors still, they are only just barely useable now it seems.
I don't. It took a lot of wheedling to get Durin to buff them as much as they have been, and I think he's generally fine with them being a niche product.

Yeah it wouldn't I bet, its one ship, not that great an improvement, and very advanced technology so it should be high DC a take many Tranth years.
It would basically be investing Tranth years in improving the Hail, and probably a lot of them. Then we'd have to invest his time in updating the Hail for them since it would be a pretty major change. I don't think it reasonable to spend that much on improving the Hail. And if we were, I suspect that since it's just one ship we'd get better results by investing his time in just further refining the design rather than the broader effort of making a better reactor.

Mind I'm currently thinking that downsize USPR for stealth fleet and Golem, integrate tractor beams in shipyards for an improvement to their productivity, then any further years we want to allocate to naval development the next best move would be Dark Matter reactor improvement research.

Gridarvols value lies almost entirely in its Psychic Cannon, the expense to keep it a bit safer is well worth it. See that UDB for example. Also the cannons cost should not be multiplied by +10% Cost/CP, that would make no sense to me.
More Gridarvols (from lower cost/CP) means more Psychic Cannons. So CP increases have to be measured that way.

It makes perfect sense for the +10% cost/CP to apply because it's way simpler to just apply % modifiers to total costs than try to break down what each part of a ship costs. If we were going for accuracy giving a flat CP and cost increase based on ship size would be the most sensible, but that would be way more effort, thus instead we have a % modifier.

There's also the complicating factor that we wanted identical reactor on the Gridarvol and Gridarvol-R for similar emissions, and it certainly won't be worth it on the much more numerous Gridarvol-R.

Hm, good point, I saw either +20% base HP for +25% Shields and picked Shields. Silly of me, should have checked. I will probably go back and edit the post, but need sleep now.
On Battleship+ the base HP and Shields are so radically different that just looking at the % is very deceptive.
 
something to consider in the discussion about what reserachs to pick is: theres a solid chance that this invasion will be the first(I think?) invasion that alternates between war-turns and eco-turns (or even makes new, hybrid turns) and our eco will be as much spent on just trying to replenish our forces/supplys as it will be on not dying and....importantly to this discussion about researchs......

I'm hypothesising that there will be at least a FEW pauses long enough for our researchers to make progress (whether off-planet and alerting us to the news or on-planet and not being TOO overwhelmed with war-efforts to not make at least SOME progress at least occasionally). so after the inital push/invasion that durin says will be 2-8 (or whatever) years after the inital "realization", we will have pause (however long it takes for that inital push to be spent).....

cas I'm thinking this will be the first *serious* siege that chaos has done on avernus, not just to kill/get/stop some particular thing (like that super dragon, or ridcully/AO/aretha/company or whatever)...but to stop avernus from doing a thing that avernus REALLY wants and I'm sure chaos knows this, certainly after they find just how many stops/cards avernus pulls to stop this invasion.

to put it another way:
I don't know HOW long this invasion will be, but it certainly will be no shorter then the ritual's remaining time left (chaos/C'tan/necron's/etc, won't run out of steam and won't give up if theirs any time left and possibility even after that too) and obsly it won't be any longer then the time it takes to stop the ritual (and presumably kill/stop/destroy Itza/Isha/a few or all of the Great Ones/AO/most or all of the empires which includes us if we don't get Store'd by avernus)...and whatever they decide is needed to make sure that Avernus is NEVER a thorn in their backside.

TLDR: this invasion will be not just bigger, but probably the longest invasion that avernus has had to endure...so if we don't get Store'd and we don't die, we will have more then just this prep-time to build/repair/research but during too (however much Durin decides our characters/cities CAN anyway....)
 
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Though keep in mind that would also mean less benefit than that on bigger ships.

I don't think you get a net improvement there. Even if we set HP = Shields, and Durability = Damage, that would be 9.4% increase in HP+Shields /2 = 4.7%. But HP isn't worth as much as shields, and durability isn't worth as much as damage on a harasser. So it would be significantly lower. If you value shields twice as much as HP it's only a 5.9% increase in durability, and if you value weapons at twice durability that's a 2% increase in effectiveness.

.3*.5+.7 = .85 vs 1.1*(.45*.5+.55) = .8525 Replacement cost is actually marginally higher. The +10% gets worse the lower the base hulk rate is, which has some non-intuitive effects. Maybe it would make more sense if the 2% price per 5% hulks was including effect of saving crew?
so replacement cost is basically the same, build cost is 10% higher and combat power is around 2% higher.
not worth it

More Gridarvols (from lower cost/CP) means more Psychic Cannons. So CP increases have to be measured that way.

It makes perfect sense for the +10% cost/CP to apply because it's way simpler to just apply % modifiers to total costs than try to break down what each part of a ship costs. If we were going for accuracy giving a flat CP and cost increase based on ship size would be the most sensible, but that would be way more effort, thus instead we have a % modifier.

There's also the complicating factor that we wanted identical reactor on the Gridarvol and Gridarvol-R for similar emissions, and it certainly won't be worth it on the much more numerous Gridarvol-R.
the ultimate reactor does not increase the price of special weapons or ultra-dense armour, so the price increase for the Gridarvol is in effect +5% rather then +10%, and the replacement cost is -4.5%
so without any benefits, you are nearly breaking even at 1 replace, and losing them is decently likely due to the fact that once they fire, they become target priority alpha

also, all the plans for the other versions are you trying to predict the results of a research project that you have not even started, as is planning for boosting DM reactors
I have said it before and I will say it again, any predictions about unstarted research projects are rather unreliable. Bringing up stats based on the results of undone research without mentioning that you are running off assumption is nearly deceptive.

EDIT: also redone this table to be more accurate, as from some reason I was counting RM with CP in the last
Ship Type% of Cost that is CP
Earthquake Dreadnought73%
Hurricane Dreadnought76%
Twister Pocket Dreadnought74%
Inferno Pocket Dreadnought70%
Boulder Battleship73%
Black Ship86%
Gridarvol Grand Cruiser50%
Gridarvol-R Grand Cruiser83%
Gjallarhorn II Battlecruiser79%
Blaze Cruiser62%
Scorch Cruiser62%
Cloud Carrier65%
Fissure Cruiser63%
Hail Light Cruiser57%
Zephyr Raider63%
Golem Frigate62%
Military Transport88%
 
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Got some WoD on the Orichalcum Terminator Armor versus Conclave Tech part of the plan.
Enerael said:
4. Would us not finishing examining the new Conclave techs this turn seem notably suspicious?
Durin said:
4. as long as you put some years in no
Also, I'd like to gauge how the voters feel about the below.
Edit: I think I'll have Rids do the wards + divination attack, and Aria do fulcrum + blank research if people want to go this way.
Enerael was thinking it'd be best if we had a hero put up our daemonbane wards for sure instead of only if we get lucky as the case is with Aria now but this would mean taking Rids off of finding Chaos Undivided's frequency and not finding the warp echo for paper but in exchange, if Aria gets lucky she'd be able to do blank research as well. Do people want to make this trade or keep things as is?
 
so replacement cost is basically the same, build cost is 10% higher and combat power is around 2% higher.
not worth it
Unusual for you to comment that something isn't worth it.

the ultimate reactor does not increase the price of special weapons or ultra-dense armour, so the price increase for the Gridarvol is in effect +5% rather then +10%, and the replacement cost is -4.5%
so without any benefits, you are nearly breaking even at 1 replace, and losing them is decently likely due to the fact that once they fire, they become target priority alpha
So you are actually breaking out individual systems for these price increases? I thought you weren't doing that because it was too complicated. If that is the case then yeah the Grindarvol deserves some more analysis. The current Grindarvol has a 55% hulk rate (50% base +10% UDB -5% VAO). That yields 0.55*.5 + .45 = .725
The Ultimate one would have +15% hulk rate for 70%. With a cost increase of 5% that gives 1.05*(.7*.5 + .3) =.6825, so yeah about 4.25% savings.

also, all the plans for the other versions are you trying to predict the results of a research project that you have not even started, as is planning for boosting DM reactors
I have said it before and I will say it again, any predictions about unstarted research projects are rather unreliable. Bringing up stats based on the results of undone research without mentioning that you are running off assumption is nearly deceptive.
We pretty much have to speculate on what the result of unstarted research projects will be. Only by speculating what the results of research will be can we reasonably argue priorities on what to research. Anything with too low a priority just never gets researched. We've done that for literal real life years at this point. Unless you want to change how the quest works to always provide us what the research results will be with a stat line in advance, we pretty much have to continue to do so. Otherwise we'd be blindly picking research basically on nothing.

EDIT: also redone this table to be more accurate, as from some reason I was counting RM with CP in the last
Ship Type% of Cost that is CP
Earthquake Dreadnought73%
Hurricane Dreadnought76%
Twister Pocket Dreadnought74%
Inferno Pocket Dreadnought70%
Boulder Battleship73%
Black Ship86%
Gridarvol Grand Cruiser50%
Gridarvol-R Grand Cruiser83%
Gjallarhorn II Battlecruiser79%
Blaze Cruiser62%
Scorch Cruiser62%
Cloud Carrier65%
Fissure Cruiser63%
Hail Light Cruiser57%
Zephyr Raider63%
Golem Frigate62%
Military Transport88%
This is essentially the fiat price the Trust as the only available buyer is willing to pay. The issue is pretty much since we built the very first shipyard our shipyards have been running flat out. I don't believe we've ever paused production of warships because no one could afford the materials to build them. So the shipyard capacity (CP) is what ultimately limits our fleet size, rather than credit cost.

Still really weird that military transports have such a high profit margin. I'm rather curious why there's so much variance in this actually. In my own there were unknowns like the UDA price, but in yours it should be more smoothly connected to shipyard size.


Enerael was thinking it'd be best if we had a hero put up our daemonbane wards for sure instead of only if we get lucky as the case is with Aria now but this would mean taking Rids off of finding Chaos Undivided's frequency and not finding the warp echo for paper but in exchange, if Aria gets lucky she'd be able to do blank research as well. Do people want to make this trade or keep things as is?
I like that trade.
 
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Unusual for you to comment that something isn't worth it.


So you are actually breaking out individual systems for these price increases? I thought you weren't doing that because it was too complicated. If that is the case then yeah the Grindarvol deserves some more analysis. The current Grindarvol has a 55% hulk rate (50% base +10% UDB -5% VAO). That yields 0.55*.5 + .45 = .725
The Ultimate one would have +15% hulk rate for 70%. With a cost increase of 5% that gives 1.05*(.7*.5 + .3) =.6825, so yeah about 4.25% savings.


We pretty much have to speculate on what the result of unstarted research projects will be. Only by speculating what the results of research will be can we reasonably argue priorities on what to research. Anything with too low a priority just never gets researched. We've done that for literal real life years at this point. Unless you want to change how the quest works to always provide us what the research results will be with a stat line in advance, we pretty much have to continue to do so. Otherwise we'd be blindly picking research basically on nothing.


This is essentially the fiat price the Trust as the only available buyer is willing to pay. The issue is pretty much since we built the very first shipyard our shipyards have been running flat out. I don't believe we've ever paused production of warships because no one could afford the materials to build them. So the shipyard capacity (CP) is what ultimately limits our fleet size, rather than credit cost.

Still really weird that military transports have such a high profit margin. I'm rather curious why there's so much variance in this actually. In my own there were unknowns like the UDA price, but in yours it should be more smoothly connected to shipyard size.


I like that trade.
yeah you have to speculate, but doing in-depth analysis based on assumptions is far far less reliable than you are making it seem
especially in this case where you don't even have the research project, and the fluff that it provides
which will be more accurate then your current analysis
 
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