Semper Ad Meliora (Code Geass/Britannian Royalty Quest)

It is not a case of dealing with them before they regain their strength but dealing with them before another group moves in while they are weakened and we are building up our forces.
Will the occupation be easy? No.
But it will still be easier than taking them from another group. Not to mention the fact that psionic tech might be lost to us if another group takes it and decides to sell their spoils to the Praetorians for example.
That is why I am contemplating getting some mercenary forces to increase our numbers for taking them and then work on replacing them with our own dedicated occupation forces over time to decrease costs.
if we do that then this might prove to be our 'afghanistan' because everyone of our enemies just has to give the occupied just some material assistance and watch us bleed dry trying to pacify a fanatical and rebellious population that hates our guts and wants to remain independant at any cost
 
Question. Where was it stated that New Heaven was committing enough forces to this particular assault that their upper caste would be crippled if they were all to be destroyed? Because the only thing I remember is Sayoko telling us that they couldn't survive a long war because it took too long to train up their specialized units, not that this assault was an all in.

Granted, I believe they've committed enough of their elite that this will at the very least give them a bloody nose, but trying to write them off as crippled seems like counting your chickens before they're hatched to me. We also shouldn't assume we've seen everything they have with one relatively small infiltration into their lands. It could be there is another caste above what we've seen that is dramatically stronger and would have made this far worse, even if they are only a few dozen in number, say.

New Heaven should be considered very much still a threat, especially since they can rebuild the fleet they've lost far faster than we'd otherwise think.

And yes, invading and occupying them at this point, with our forces as small as they are and no means of deprogramming a massive cult the size of a nation, is among the worst courses of action we could take.
 
Till now the New Heaven could stand as one of the big three while only fielding raiding fleets led by non-professionals. Their psionic troops never left home. From the Interlude we know that they can easily replenish any losses in vessels. Their psionic workers allow them to build at an astonishing rate and speed. I don't see any other force ready to take them on, considering their low end was enough to be considered one of the big three. Before this invasion, no one knew about the psionic soldiers, and they still did not attack New Heaven.
I am not thinking about the other pirate groups when it comes to taking them. The Blood/SIC might go for it as I'm pretty sure some of the slaves are their citizens and "wars of liberation" are rather popular for democracies. Especially if someone is a warmonger and wants public support for an election. But they might just decide to free the slave populations in a raid.
One of the arguments in story for us taking action against New Heaven was pointed out by Sayoko:
There was another moment of silence, before Sayoko Shinozaki stepped forward. "Your Highness, for what it matters, I believe New Heaven will ultimately fail in their aims. The reasons are the same as those by which the shinobi did not rule Japan. We are blades honed by decades of training, our skills highly specialized and powerful, yes, but vulnerable to decimation in a war of attrition. New Heaven has committed too many resources to the development of too few units they can ill-afford to replace. I would expect them to see large gains in the first five years of any conflict, but ultimately lose a prolonged war. The Children of Ching Shih are using them as cat's paws."

"And that is relevant to my current considerations?" Lelouch asked, his tone neutral as he looked to his advisor.

"It is, denka-sama. Putting aside whether India acquires independence, the Federation will attempt punitive expeditions as a result of their embarrassment. It is unlikely they will wish to leave once they have taken the pirate settlements." Sayoko smiled as she finished.

Even Wei's eyebrows rose as Lelouch vi Britannia began to chuckle audibly.

"A fig leaf of self-interest." The prince praised. "If I aim to interfere, it is not to protect the Federation or the Confederation, but to strengthen the claim I wish to pursue on Australia. Excellent work, Sayoko, warding off Federation expansionism is more than enough to defang the criticism in court."
With the Eunuch being killed before he could declare that the Federation is cutting the IC free (which was part of the plan) New Heaven has just committed an act of war against the Chinese Federation. The Federation MUST react or lose a lot of face in international politics. And while New Heaven could defend against the other pirate groups I don't see them being able to take on the Chinese. And they have the manpower to occupy New Heaven. And if they occupy New Heaven why not take out the Children of Chinh Shih? They were a thorn to the Federation for a long time. Might as well take the other minor groups as well. And if China starts taking land in Australia then Britannia with its current policy will not contest it.
The pirates mostly tried to keep their heads relatively down. A nuisance but not a big enough one to force the big players to use the resources required to deal with them. It was repeatedly stated that we are relatively safe as royals because the pirates know that killing a royal will bring the Emperors wrath on them.
What New Heaven did was the mental equivalent of walking up to a sleeping Gobi Bear, kicking it in the ass, dropping your pants, bending over and farting in its face when it turns to face you. The other groups are most likely going "What in the name of Davy Jones locker did those utter morons do?!?" as they get the news.
Our only chance to keep any claim for Australia is to take over New Heaven before the Chinese conquer it. Our actions during the invasion might buy us time and a chance to go first if we play our cards right. If we take to long to deal with New Heaven after they attacked both our personal lands and now did a major attack on a Chinese vassal then China will need to send a punitive force. Especially that the Praetorians will most likely use their influence to push for the destruction of New Heaven after they have used their psionic warriors in the open.
And as to the Indian rebellion that you are saying will most likely not happen. I am hoping it will start because then China will need to deal with it and will have a pretext to give us more time to deal with New Heaven.
if we do that then this might prove to be our 'afghanistan' because everyone of our enemies just has to give the occupied just some material assistance and watch us bleed dry trying to pacify a fanatical and rebellious population that hates our guts and wants to remain independant at any cost
Which following your argument will happen no matter which group we take over first. Our goal is to take over Australia. Unless that changed I don't see doing that without occupations of unwilling subjects unless we go for genocide and resettling. Look at my argument above. This might be a case of if we don't act now then we might as well drop our ambitions for Australia.

EDIT: I am not saying we might be forced to attack New Heaven next turn. But it might be something like when we found out that there was an offer of financial support from Area 9 governor if we commit to dealing with the Blood. Slayer also stated that we would have a time limit before we would have to commit serious forces to that goal. This might be a similar case since with the attack New Heaven changed the rules.

EDIT2: Unless we returned to our plans from the start of the quest when we were contemplating marrying the Tianzi to stop canon Schneizel plans. Then China taking Australia would be a good thing.
 
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Which following your argument will happen no matter which group we take over first. Our goal is to take over Australia. Unless that changed I don't see doing that without occupations of unwilling subjects unless we go for genocide and resettling. Look at my argument above. This might be a case of if we don't act now then we might as well drop our ambitions for Australia.
the difference between NH and the rest of australia is that NH are mostly zealots that are heavily indoctrinated and if we start our conquest there then every other faction that knows our plans for australia support their resistance while if we start with the other pirate groups then NH is unlikely to lift a finger to help them and instead focus on rebuilding their own forces

and while its true that the chinese will do a punitive expedition against NH there is a decend chance that we can get them to make it a joint operation with us instead of rushing alone and paying heavily for any wins because at the moment we have a similar problem as NH because we have several elite troops that are hard to replace and no easily replaced masstroops (which china has in spades)
 
How much does the Chinese know that we know after all we don't know what Kaguya told to Tianzi (if it was her she sent the letter to). After all we know that this was a plot to take the Indonesia from China and inspire India to rise up by the children of Ching Shih. Cause they might crack down on India or focus on the two pirate groups who are trying to mess with them
 
How much does the Chinese know that we know after all we don't know what Kaguya told to Tianzi (if it was her she sent the letter to).
The old I know you know that I know that you know...
With Slayer mentioning that he needed to read up on Chinese government and nobility we will most likely find out in character when we start interacting with the Chinese Court after this. No need to waste one of the upcoming 400 page questions on it and I doubt Slayer would answer that without it since we don't know in character.
 
EDIT2: Unless we returned to our plans from the start of the quest when we were contemplating marrying the Tianzi to stop canon Schneizel plans. Then China taking Australia would be a good thing.
Honestly I do think that regardless of what we do, if we want the throne marrying Tanzi is the key, as the prospect of a personal union between Britannia and China is game winning with regards to quest geopolitics if we can consolidate it (admittedly that is a big if) which should overcome our low place in the line of succession.

Our place in the line of succession is important as we need to get everyone ahead of us to either step aside or die, which is problematic as we cannot outmaneuver them domestically due to them having already monopolized domestic resources (which is why we went for australia in the first place). However the prospect of a geopolitical I win button and the backing of China (and hopefully australia and euro britannia) may be enough to force our elder siblings to step aside or if not kill them.
 
Honestly I do think that regardless of what we do, if we want the throne marrying Tanzi is the key, as the prospect of a personal union between Britannia and China is game winning with regards to quest geopolitics if we can consolidate it (admittedly that is a big if) which should overcome our low place in the line of succession.

Our place in the line of succession is important as we need to get everyone ahead of us to either step aside or die, which is problematic as we cannot outmaneuver them domestically due to them having already monopolized domestic resources (which is why we went for australia in the first place). However the prospect of a geopolitical I win button and the backing of China (and hopefully australia and euro britannia) may be enough to force our elder siblings to step aside or if not kill them.

I would argue that marrying Tianzi is unfair to both Tianzi and our current girlfriends, because if Tianzi is just one lover among many, it disrespects Tianzi and undermines the strength of the marriage alliance, while if she is more than that, it insults our relationships with the other girls. Furthermore, if we are to treat (good) people as pawns in order to get the throne, I am not sure that getting the throne is worth it, as we would become the very evil we are trying to get the throne to prevent.
 
I would argue that marrying Tianzi is unfair to both Tianzi and our current girlfriends, because if Tianzi is just one lover among many, it disrespects Tianzi and undermines the strength of the marriage alliance, while if she is more than that, it insults our relationships with the other girls. Furthermore, if we are to treat (good) people as pawns in order to get the throne, I am not sure that getting the throne is worth it, as we would become the very evil we are trying to get the throne to prevent.
Our current girlfriends are familiar with Britannia's culture and know that politics may end up getting in the way (look at Slayer's comments about the Emperor having so many spouses and expectations of royals being "virile" in the KoH post, Mums the word, and in some miscellaneous comments), and Tianzi is a royal so she should know that a political marriage is to be expected.

Now if the various people we care about do end having objections to the situation, I could see it being grounds for backing down but until those objections actually emerge I am not going to assume they exist.

As for treating people as pawns... are you reading the same quest and familiar with the same source material? Lelouch does that all the time, it is literally his modus operandi, what distinguishes him from most of his family is that he truly does possess a sense of noblesse oblige and desired a better world so the well being of his pawns matters to him even if their agency does not (look at the secret society we joined or the entire treatment of the Black Knights in cannon).
 
Our current girlfriends are familiar with Britannia's culture and know that politics may end up getting in the way (look at Slayer's comments about the Emperor having so many spouses and expectations of royals being "virile" in the KoH post, Mums the word, and in some miscellaneous comments), and Tianzi is a royal so she should know that a political marriage is to be expected.

Now if the various people we care about do end having objections to the situation, I could see it being grounds for backing down but until those objections actually emerge I am not going to assume they exist.

As for treating people as pawns... are you reading the same quest and familiar with the same source material? Lelouch does that all the time, it is literally his modus operandi, what distinguishes him from most of his family is that he truly does possess a sense of noblesse oblige and desired a better world so the well being of his pawns matters to him even if their agency does not (look at the secret society we joined or the entire treatment of the Black Knights in cannon).

As far as I know, one of the major themes of Code Geass how in Season 1, Lelouch saw his allies against Britannia as merely tools to get his revenge on Britannia and put Nunnally above everyone else, and because of that his rebellion failed. Meanwhile, in Season 2, he broadened his perspective, came to truly care about others and their plight and moved on from merely helping Nunnally and getting his revenge to truly fixing the world, with the climax being turning on Nunnally by using his Geass on her against her will in order to help the world as a whole. Because of this shift in perspective, Lelouch was able to succeed at making a kind and just world where he had previously failed. Am I wrong about all of this?
 
Somewhat. Even in the closing stages of R2, it was never about helping "the world." Instead, it was shaping the world into something that Nunnally (and others he'd come to care for like C.C. or Kallen) could live in peacefully.
 
As far as I know, one of the major themes of Code Geass how in Season 1, Lelouch saw his allies against Britannia as merely tools to get his revenge on Britannia and put Nunnally above everyone else, and because of that his rebellion failed. Meanwhile, in Season 2, he broadened his perspective, came to truly care about others and their plight and moved on from merely helping Nunnally and getting his revenge to truly fixing the world, with the climax being turning on Nunnally by using his Geass on her against her will in order to help the world as a whole. Because of this shift in perspective, Lelouch was able to succeed at making a kind and just world where he had previously failed. Am I wrong about all of this?
Yes, your entire argument is self defeating. I think you may be confusing caring about people other than nunnally with caring about the agency of others. They are not in anyway the same thing.

To elaborate on why you are wrong Lelouch created his better world via mass use of his Geass on people ranging from numerous common Britannian soldiers (resulting in the deaths of many of those soldiers) to Nunnally herself, as you point out. Going even beyond that his plan was about manipulating the emotions of the entire world into putting aside their grievances via turning himself into their common enemy through grandiose over the top villany (namely taking the world's leaders hostage). This is not even touching on his geassing the collective unconscious of mankind, and how to evaluate the impact that had on peoples agency.

None of these actions (and indeed few of Lelouch's actions in general) are examples of caring about the agency of others, instead they are examples of violating that agency (often in the most profound way possible) for the sake of advancing Lelouch own goals, which luckily enough includes making a better world.

As for your point about the Black Knights specifically, that also fails as it was his use of them against the Geass Directorate and failure to ever come clean about his Geass or identity that cost him their loyalty (also author fiat with regards to Schnitzel and Oggi, but that is season two for you) and ultimately led to Rolo's death and the fallout from that.

So in the end the very examples you cite disprove your point. Lelouch does not respect the agency of others and that is infact one of his tragic flaws that ultimately leads to his isolation, death, and going down in history as a monster.

That being said I do agree that Lelouch enlarged the number of people he cared about and became more focused on improving the world rather than revenge against Britannia as the show went on. However that is not relevant to the critique I was making with regards to you being wrong about Lelouch not using people as pawns, since even when he was acting his most altruistically he was still using people as pawns (indeed the mass use of Geass during zero requiem arguably means he was most dismissive of others agency when he was acting the most altruistic).
 
Yes, your entire argument is self defeating. I think you may be confusing caring about people other than nunnally with caring about the agency of others. They are not in anyway the same thing.

To elaborate on why you are wrong Lelouch created his better world via mass use of his Geass on people ranging from numerous common Britannian soldiers (resulting in the deaths of many of those soldiers) to Nunnally herself, as you point out. Going even beyond that his plan was about manipulating the emotions of the entire world into putting aside their grievances via turning himself into their common enemy through grandiose over the top villany (namely taking the world's leaders hostage). This is not even touching on his geassing the collective unconscious of mankind, and how to evaluate the impact that had on peoples agency.

None of these actions (and indeed few of Lelouch's actions in general) are examples of caring about the agency of others, instead they are examples of violating that agency (often in the most profound way possible) for the sake of advancing Lelouch own goals, which luckily enough includes making a better world.

As for your point about the Black Knights specifically, that also fails as it was his use of them against the Geass Directorate and failure to ever come clean about his Geass or identity that cost him their loyalty (also author fiat with regards to Schnitzel and Oggi, but that is season two for you) and ultimately led to Rolo's death and the fallout from that.

So in the end the very examples you cite disprove your point. Lelouch does not respect the agency of others and that is infact one of his tragic flaws that ultimately leads to his isolation, death, and going down in history as a monster.

That being said I do agree that Lelouch enlarged the number of people he cared about and became more focused on improving the world rather than revenge against Britannia as the show went on. However that is not relevant to the critique I was making with regards to you being wrong about Lelouch not using people as pawns, since even when he was acting his most altruistically he was still using people as pawns (indeed the mass use of Geass during zero requiem arguably means he was most dismissive of others agency when he was acting the most altruistic).

I was arguing more about the morality of the act than whether it was in-character for canon Lelouch. Canon Lelouch definitely treated people as pawns. Does that mean that we should treat people as pawns, or that us doing so is perfectly moral? Even you are admitting that Lelouch's lack of respect for other people's agency came back to bite him, causing the Black Knights to turn on him and resulting in a situation where he essentially commits suicide due to self-hatred. Do we want to make our player character like that? Think about not only what that would do to him, but also to those he cares about.
 
I was arguing more about the morality of the act than whether it was in-character for canon Lelouch. Canon Lelouch definitely treated people as pawns. Does that mean that we should treat people as pawns, or that us doing so is perfectly moral? Even you are admitting that Lelouch's lack of respect for other people's agency came back to bite him, causing the Black Knights to turn on him and resulting in a situation where he essentially commits suicide due to self-hatred. Do we want to make our player character like that? Think about not only what that would do to him, but also to those he cares about.
I do not disagree with your moral stance vis a vis peoples agency, but your stance has no rational connection to a political marriage where all parties involved know the score and are willing to proceed with it in the name of accomplishing their own objectives, which is what I am raising as a possibility where we marry Tianzi.

I am not saying we should do what Schniezel did in cannon and force Tianzi into a marriage she does not want, nor am I proposing we lie or manipulate anyone (other than those siblings who leave us no choice, looking at you Carine). What I am saying is that if we want the throne marrying Tianzi is the best way to get it and that I trust everyone involved to handle the idea in a mature and rational fashion, given the cultural background work Slayer Anderson has laid out.
 
Comparing Canon Lelouch to our Lelouch is pointless.

Watching his Mother die, his Sister go blind and fleeing the army in Japan were defining moments of his life.

Here we grew up with our family most notably Euphemia and Cornelia. We're a completely different person.
 
If it will apply then Nunnally managed to redefine the concept of a fighting retreat. As in post battle analysts will be extremely confused how she managed to inflict such horrendous casualties on the enemy while retreating. They will have to double check if someone didn't mix up the direction of her movement.
No, it was moved to Kallen's unit. Nunnally's retreating and no longer pursuing combat. The roll was mostly to determine whether or not her KMFs took any further damage as they escaped.

I'll have to figure out the exact tactics involved, but Nunnally probably decided to 'retreat' through the largest block of enemy forces she could find.
Nunnally:"Its a retrograde advance! :) "
 
Nunnally: "...and I realized that what we were facing was merely a blocking force and that the bulk of the enemy forces had detoured around us and were advancing on the CP. I immediately chose to disengage and strike them at their flank, which coincidentally took us straight back to our second defensive line."
Lelouch: "..."
Lelouch: "You got lost, didn't you?"
Nunnally: "I got lost."
 
The Blood/SIC might go for it as I'm pretty sure some of the slaves are their citizens and "wars of liberation" are rather popular for democracies. Especially if someone is a warmonger and wants public support for an election. But they might just decide to free the slave populations in a raid.
We know the current leader, and he has led a majorly successful military operation giving him more than enough credit. Furthermore, Weber really did not come across as the expansionist warmonger. To get someone like that out of office, you would need something massive. New Heaven may not look like such an enticing target, when you don't know that they have only a few of their super soldiers left. I really don't see Blood going for it, either under Weber or someone new able to replace him.
With the Eunuch being killed before he could declare that the Federation is cutting the IC free (which was part of the plan) New Heaven has just committed an act of war against the Chinese Federation. The Federation MUST react or lose a lot of face in international politics. And while New Heaven could defend against the other pirate groups I don't see them being able to take on the Chinese. And they have the manpower to occupy New Heaven. And if they occupy New Heaven why not take out the Children of Chinh Shih? They were a thorn to the Federation for a long time. Might as well take the other minor groups as well. And if China starts taking land in Australia then Britannia with its current policy will not contest it.
The pirates mostly tried to keep their heads relatively down. A nuisance but not a big enough one to force the big players to use the resources required to deal with them. It was repeatedly stated that we are relatively safe as royals because the pirates know that killing a royal will bring the Emperors wrath on them.
What New Heaven did was the mental equivalent of walking up to a sleeping Gobi Bear, kicking it in the ass, dropping your pants, bending over and farting in its face when it turns to face you. The other groups are most likely going "What in the name of Davy Jones locker did those utter morons do?!?" as they get the news.
Our only chance to keep any claim for Australia is to take over New Heaven before the Chinese conquer it. Our actions during the invasion might buy us time and a chance to go first if we play our cards right. If we take to long to deal with New Heaven after they attacked both our personal lands and now did a major attack on a Chinese vassal then China will need to send a punitive force. Especially that the Praetorians will most likely use their influence to push for the destruction of New Heaven after they have used their psionic warriors in the open.
And as to the Indian rebellion that you are saying will most likely not happen. I am hoping it will start because then China will need to deal with it and will have a pretext to give us more time to deal with New Heaven.
It was a pirate attack. Acts of war can only happen between states and the pirates are still considered hostis humani generis. Such raids have happened quite often, the only difference is the scale. The Federation has not put a final solution forward against the Children, and they are far more deliberate in their attacks on Federation targets. There was also no response towards the raid on Ambon against the Freelance Raiders.

Now first the basis for your argument for Federation intervention is the counteraction Sayoko mentions the Federation has to do when New Heaven is successful or just successful enough. Context matters! Here we have the first in nail the coffin of that line of thought, New Heaven got crushed. While we helped massively, the CF did more than their part and were in no way embarrassed by the fighting.
Overall Indonesia was embarrassed. A high-ranking Federation official got murdered under their nose. Their harbor attacked and their forces needed massive help to keep a pirate group at bay. Li Xingke comes in with a fleet and the garrison rallies quickly to the defense of their subordinate territory. The enemy was utterly crushed. How can that be embarrassing for the CF?

On a political side this was not an embarrassment for the CF, but one for the IC. They demonstrated the clear need for support on the military side and will most likely have to go back to a more subordinate character in their relations with the CF. With Li Xingke there, they would most likely sweeten this with the promise of a return of major patrols along the shipping lanes. Likely stationing one battle fleet near them till they have regrouped their losses. All around I don't see the massive need for action to safe face from the CF's side. On both floors the military and the political one they will come out ahead.

Next is the notion that the CF could just roll in and take it. First problem here is the hostility of the other pirate groups. The Children will not just sit by and let them do it. Considering they have targeted the CF since time immemorial and never gotten crushed, I don't see it as such a sure thing. The CF cannot just mobilize everything they have to deal with them. Other places to protect or portray power there. Then their country is divided on many things. At court, you have the nominal factions of the Tianzi and the High Eunuchs. Outside there will be even more factionalism. Some leaning towards Britannia, some towards the EU and others just plain Nationalists. And never forget the militarists or isolationists. Any action towards Australia will be opposed by the Indian Faction or part of it, the nationalists, the isolationists and factions leaning towards an alignment with either the EU or Britannia. The Indians and the nationalists would fear about their hidden daggers in the form of the Children, there is obviously some sympathy towards them and the foreign policy factions would see trouble on the horizon by involving themselves there. Blood is connected to EU, Crowns to Britannia and then there are the two governors nearby.
Therefore, on the one hand I can see trouble for them on the military side through an alliance of many of the pirate factions to oppose them. The Children have most likely the best relations with many other factions, by being the majorly neutral one amongst them, and should therefore be able to rally some groups to their banner. On the land side there is no question the CF can just steamroll them, but on the sea they have been checked by the Children many times. Additionally, I see a supreme lack of political will to do it.

Last point is the Tianzi, Xingke and how they fucking owe us. They know where the information came from. They will see us arguing for Indonesia remaining with them and only an utter fool could not see our interest in Australia. Why make someone inclined towards your nation's interest into a rival or even an outright enemy?
Lelouch has demonstrated to the world, that he is someone you would like to have on your side. It can be considered an open secret, how we want in on Australia. Having it under our control, would solve many problems for the CF. Instead of trying to grab land for themselves and making a potential ally into an enemy. It is far smarter to have such a powerful player become indebted towards you. This they can achieve by providing troops or ships for him. On the one hand it would strengthen their position in the sea and lower any threats towards their own shipping.
Therefore, I see the CF more likely going for granting us a boon in the form of support in claiming Australia for us or helping with military actions.

After having talked about the notion of a CF intervention, now I think you are intermixing the pirate groups. While it is true that our death would lead to a massive retribution from Britannia, this does not mean they never threaten the big ones. The three big ones(New Heaven, Blood, Children) did it all the time. Blood has again and again attacked Britannian assets. They are currently still attacking ships in Area Nine's waters and are not really willing to simply drop that. The Children's whole stick is going after the Federation and New Heaven did attack us before this. All of them are poking the two big powers in this area.
You mean the little ones. Sons of Teach, going after low-key targets. Blades of Saladin going after big ones for the first time and therefore having massively overstretched their resources. Tourist pirates are not worth mentioning and the Freelancers are split doing whatever they want. The Best example attacking Indonesia before New Haven did it. Therefore, even the little ones have gone after big targets. Blades being the one to easily bring down Britannia on them for the first time.
While the scale was somewhat bigger, at first everyone still thought it was just a raid. Lelouch needed to raise the point himself, that this was a true invasion and not just a raid.

Overall, I don't see the CF going for that.

TL.DR.: CF was not embarrassed, therefore no need to safe face, and their internal disunity makes an invasion of Australia unlikely. Furthermore, doubt they want to harm relations with Lelouch after this just happened.
 
We know the current leader, and he has led a majorly successful military operation giving him more than enough credit. Furthermore, Weber really did not come across as the expansionist warmonger. To get someone like that out of office, you would need something massive. New Heaven may not look like such an enticing target, when you don't know that they have only a few of their super soldiers left. I really don't see Blood going for it, either under Weber or someone new able to replace him.

It was a pirate attack. Acts of war can only happen between states and the pirates are still considered hostis humani generis. Such raids have happened quite often, the only difference is the scale. The Federation has not put a final solution forward against the Children, and they are far more deliberate in their attacks on Federation targets. There was also no response towards the raid on Ambon against the Freelance Raiders.

Now first the basis for your argument for Federation intervention is the counteraction Sayoko mentions the Federation has to do when New Heaven is successful or just successful enough. Context matters! Here we have the first in nail the coffin of that line of thought, New Heaven got crushed. While we helped massively, the CF did more than their part and were in no way embarrassed by the fighting.
Overall Indonesia was embarrassed. A high-ranking Federation official got murdered under their nose. Their harbor attacked and their forces needed massive help to keep a pirate group at bay. Li Xingke comes in with a fleet and the garrison rallies quickly to the defense of their subordinate territory. The enemy was utterly crushed. How can that be embarrassing for the CF?

On a political side this was not an embarrassment for the CF, but one for the IC. They demonstrated the clear need for support on the military side and will most likely have to go back to a more subordinate character in their relations with the CF. With Li Xingke there, they would most likely sweeten this with the promise of a return of major patrols along the shipping lanes. Likely stationing one battle fleet near them till they have regrouped their losses. All around I don't see the massive need for action to safe face from the CF's side. On both floors the military and the political one they will come out ahead.

Next is the notion that the CF could just roll in and take it. First problem here is the hostility of the other pirate groups. The Children will not just sit by and let them do it. Considering they have targeted the CF since time immemorial and never gotten crushed, I don't see it as such a sure thing. The CF cannot just mobilize everything they have to deal with them. Other places to protect or portray power there. Then their country is divided on many things. At court, you have the nominal factions of the Tianzi and the High Eunuchs. Outside there will be even more factionalism. Some leaning towards Britannia, some towards the EU and others just plain Nationalists. And never forget the militarists or isolationists. Any action towards Australia will be opposed by the Indian Faction or part of it, the nationalists, the isolationists and factions leaning towards an alignment with either the EU or Britannia. The Indians and the nationalists would fear about their hidden daggers in the form of the Children, there is obviously some sympathy towards them and the foreign policy factions would see trouble on the horizon by involving themselves there. Blood is connected to EU, Crowns to Britannia and then there are the two governors nearby.
Therefore, on the one hand I can see trouble for them on the military side through an alliance of many of the pirate factions to oppose them. The Children have most likely the best relations with many other factions, by being the majorly neutral one amongst them, and should therefore be able to rally some groups to their banner. On the land side there is no question the CF can just steamroll them, but on the sea they have been checked by the Children many times. Additionally, I see a supreme lack of political will to do it.

Last point is the Tianzi, Xingke and how they fucking owe us. They know where the information came from. They will see us arguing for Indonesia remaining with them and only an utter fool could not see our interest in Australia. Why make someone inclined towards your nation's interest into a rival or even an outright enemy?
Lelouch has demonstrated to the world, that he is someone you would like to have on your side. It can be considered an open secret, how we want in on Australia. Having it under our control, would solve many problems for the CF. Instead of trying to grab land for themselves and making a potential ally into an enemy. It is far smarter to have such a powerful player become indebted towards you. This they can achieve by providing troops or ships for him. On the one hand it would strengthen their position in the sea and lower any threats towards their own shipping.
Therefore, I see the CF more likely going for granting us a boon in the form of support in claiming Australia for us or helping with military actions.

After having talked about the notion of a CF intervention, now I think you are intermixing the pirate groups. While it is true that our death would lead to a massive retribution from Britannia, this does not mean they never threaten the big ones. The three big ones(New Heaven, Blood, Children) did it all the time. Blood has again and again attacked Britannian assets. They are currently still attacking ships in Area Nine's waters and are not really willing to simply drop that. The Children's whole stick is going after the Federation and New Heaven did attack us before this. All of them are poking the two big powers in this area.
You mean the little ones. Sons of Teach, going after low-key targets. Blades of Saladin going after big ones for the first time and therefore having massively overstretched their resources. Tourist pirates are not worth mentioning and the Freelancers are split doing whatever they want. The Best example attacking Indonesia before New Haven did it. Therefore, even the little ones have gone after big targets. Blades being the one to easily bring down Britannia on them for the first time.
While the scale was somewhat bigger, at first everyone still thought it was just a raid. Lelouch needed to raise the point himself, that this was a true invasion and not just a raid.

Overall, I don't see the CF going for that.

TL.DR.: CF was not embarrassed, therefore no need to safe face, and their internal disunity makes an invasion of Australia unlikely. Furthermore, doubt they want to harm relations with Lelouch after this just happened.
Well reasoned out. I really hope you are right and that the background rolls don't cause too many people to grab the idiot ball. The dice like to make an interesting story (I'm not pointing fingers but... Rus Republic).
To be honest I am hoping you are right because I don't want to be taking New Heaven on before we get some of the second Jeager's tech tree. Improved psionic detectors and psionic shields would really help. Not to mention get some more forces under our own command.
An immediate action would most likely require shifting the favor from the Duke from the extra Stewardship action to some mercenary forces. Which would cost a Personal Action. Which also would cost us greatly. That is one of the worst sections to make a decision.
My tendency to be overly pessimistic got away from me:).
 
Well reasoned out. I really hope you are right and that the background rolls don't cause too many people to grab the idiot ball. The dice like to make an interesting story (I'm not pointing fingers but... Rus Republic).
To be honest I am hoping you are right because I don't want to be taking New Heaven on before we get some of the second Jeager's tech tree. Improved psionic detectors and psionic shields would really help. Not to mention get some more forces under our own command.
An immediate action would most likely require shifting the favor from the Duke from the extra Stewardship action to some mercenary forces. Which would cost a Personal Action. Which also would cost us greatly. That is one of the worst sections to make a decision.
My tendency to be overly pessimistic got away from me:).
Against the all powerful dice we are all powerless -.-

Yeah, action economy looks to turn really ugly. I mean we are only half done with the interludes this year and already got multiple new actions. From the military cooperation to the research options for the swords or loot from the battlefield. Going somewhere with Milly can only open new things for us.

BTW 11 pages till the next round of questions ^^.
 
Well... this might be a bit premature, but still... we might want to start thinking about what questions should we ask for reaching the 400 page milestone (provided that the QM keeps on doing this activity).

From the last set of answered questions, we OOC know that factions apparently have 'secret victory conditions' for us to exploit, as per this statement:
On the last note... I'll also add that I have a certain list of 'Secret Victory Conditions' as regards various factions.

Should we reserve one question to find out more about the 'Secret Victory Conditions' of a specific faction? (and if yes, what faction should we be inquiring about?)
 
I'm wondering whether we should ask about working closer with the emperor and VV on the psionic and ancient civilization stuff, and whether the knowledge we have would be new and useful to them.
 
I'm wondering whether we should ask about working closer with the emperor and VV on the psionic and ancient civilization stuff, and whether the knowledge we have would be new and useful to them.
If I remember correctly it was mentioned that the Thought Elevators were damaged and the Emperor and VV (and most likely CC) are working on figuring how to repair them since they were part of the ancient earth defense grid. If we manage to recreate the swords we got from OSI and show some results from Jeager tech I see them trying to bring us in. Even if it is just to act as tech support for their projects at first.
Especially after this line from the omake by our own QM:
"As long as the boy keeps to himself and doesn't step on the toes of our ongoing operations I see no reason, yet, to make an issue of him consolidating psionic resources. He wouldn't be the first royal to do so, after all." VV gave his younger brother a gimlet eye.

Charles chuckled at that. "Ah, would that I had known what the future would bring, I would have perhaps waited for Lelouch instead."

Victor pulled a face at the thought. "You are most certainly not serious."

Charles shrugged. "Contingencies are necessary, brother. My first attempt misplaced a heavy burden and lasting damage was done. Lelouch could become a viable alternative."
My suspicion is that the first attempt ended up with Schneizel getting the following perk.
Heart of Ice: You Stand Alone, Apart, and Unmoved. Penalty to all Social Links. Schneizel el Britannia treats all Social Links as though they were 5 Lower than their actual score for any bonuses that might accrue. Does not affect the other individual in the link. +5 Stewardship, +5 Intrigue, +5 Martial, +5 Diplomacy. -20 Piety.
If we can show some decent competency in managing our affairs and some talent combined with high psionic talent it might be another path for Charles naming us his heir.
 
So, I just binge read this entire Thread; skipped some of the in-depth discussion during voting cycles, and here I am.
Now, I will post a distraction in a moment so I can go and likebomb all the Threadmarks. I hope the double-post will be forgiven.
 
An Unusual Pair by Naron - Canon (+10 Omake Bonus x2)
There was one particular friendship I always wished canon would have explored. So let's see if I can make it canon here.

An Unusual Pair

"Your highness."
"Sumeragi-san."

Nunnally could not help but be curious about the newest lady in her brother's personal orbit. Well, as much as one could call it that. They only had a business relationship at this point in time, although much could change in the five years Sumeragi Kaguya would stay with them.

The Japanese girl spoke first, a pleasant smile offered by the one of lesser station. "How may I serve you, your highness?"

Her Britannian was quite good, the barest hint of an accent telling Nunnally that this young woman had learned the language since she was a little girl but not since she could speak. Truly though, she could not say for sure what drew her to seek out the Sumeragi heiress. Perhaps that she was new and unusual, maybe idle curiousity about her aims regarding Lelouch. Maybe even the fact she was already beautiful at fourteen and Nunnally could not help but be a little smitten.

Ultimately though, she knew none of that was the main reason. "Do you have some time to join me for tea, Sumeragi-san? I am usually surrounded by men and women my senior, so I would like to speak to someone my age for once."

She suppressed a grimace; that was a bit more direct than she should have been, but now the words were already out. At least the fact she spoke in Sumeragi's native Japanese instead of Britannian distracted the other girl somewhat from the bluntness. Nunnally, too, knew to converse in several languages.

After a moment of well-hidden surprise, the other girl beamed at her and curtsied. "My, of course. I would be delighted." A polite agreement, though with a hint of actual interest there. Nunnally may be bad at being courteous, but she could still read a social situation well enough.

Not much later, the two of them were facing each other on an otherwise empty terrace, a single table with two chairs and refreshments brought by the help. Nunnally waited until everything was set up as was customary, waited until their cups were filled, and was promptly overtaken by her de-facto guest. "If I may say so, your Japanese is quite good. Did you and your brother learn together?"

She just shook her head and huffed. "His interest in languages is a recent matter while I have been learning several for a few years. He is far more talented at it than I am." Then, with a wink to her guest, she switched to Mandarin. "Although I inherited our mother's talent at arms in turn."

The silence held for a moment while the Japanese girl took a sip from her tea, eyes closed. Once the cup was lowered however, Nunnally could see what had to be a carbon-copy of her own impish grin. "I'm afraid I have yet to hear of such," she answered in perfect Mandarin, "although I am certain I soon will. Considering our age, greatness lies ahead of us both." Nunnally knew her brother was planning to lease his combat forces this year, so she raised her cup in response to sip from her own tea. It would be sooner than Sumeragi might think.

Then she grimaced as her guest turned the tables and switched to another language; one she did not learn. After a moment of expectant silence, Nunnally sighed softly and reached for the tray of pastries. "I am afraid you caught me. I do not speak Arabic. What were you saying?"

While she began to nibble on her treat, Sumeragi nodded and ran a finger over the rim of her cup. "I see," she offered in Britannian once more, "I was saying that I look forward to hearing of your exploits, your highness." And as if to poke a hornet's nest, the girl switched to Japanese to add "You can't catch them all" with a renewed grin.

Nunnally raised one immaculate eyebrow and responded: "Quite true. You will hear many great things from me in the future."

The reaction she got was a barely suppressed groan while Sumeragi quickly picked up a cookie to munch on. "Gah, German. I knew I should have studied that!" Now it was for Nunnally to grin, then giggle. Sumeragi followed moments later and the two took a moment to bask in their shared mirth.

"I have to admit," Nunnally noted while her guest enjoyed the baked goods, "this is much different to what I am used to. Tea parties with the nobility are always so stiff and formal. This is better, Sumeragi-san."

"I concur."

Both of them took a short while to empty their cups and have them refilled, then the Japanese girl continued. "And please, Kaguya will suffice, your highness." Nunnally could not help but blink at her a few times; the Japanese were well-known not to allow use of their first name so easily.

In the end, she just accepted it and returned the notion: "Nunnally for you, then." After a moment however, she decided to be coy. "Kaguya."

As expected, she received a raised eyebrow in turn and the other girl folded her hands with a grin. "My, at least add a -chan, we aren't that close."

"Are you sure, Kaguya?" A twitch of her eyebrow and Nunnally could not help but giggle at the sight. She would be in for one hell of a chastisement if she did this at an official function, but right here, right now? She found it fun, but decided not to push any further. "Hehe, alright, alright. I won't do it again, Kaguya-chan."

The narrow-eyed gaze she received prompted another giggle, then the other girl carefully picked up another cookie... and promptly threw it at her. Nunnally was too surprised to catch it and the thing broke to pieces on her forehead, raining crumbs onto the dress she wore on base and what little cleavage she had. It was her turn to stare at the Japanese girl, who leaned back and looked at her nails. "We're even now."

Silence passed as the two of them stared at each other. A Japanese addressed without any honorific without permission, and a princess full of crumbs from a ballistic cookie.

Nunnally broke the silence: "My tutor would hunt me to the other end of the world with his cane if he ever found out about this."

Kaguya nodded sagely. "My father would give me the first spanking I ever got in my life if he knew."

A moment later, both girls broke into laughter. Not polite giggles, but proper laughter. It felt good, Nunnally thought, to laugh freely. She could only do that around her mother, her brother, and Milly. She felt content, sitting at this table, laughing together with a girl she hardly knew but felt she wanted to know better.

After a time passed and the two of them calmed down again, Kaguya leaned back with a smile. "Ah, that felt good. I never expected things to end like this. At first I thought you wanted to snatch an ally from your brother's grasp."

Nunnally's mirth was dampened by the admission and she frowned lightly, but shook it off before also shaking her head. "No, no. Lelouch is much better at politics than I am. I'm not made for life at court and I'd prefer if I never have to spend too much time there." She spoke from the heart, feeling that while admitting such a matter could be disastrous if the wrong ears heard them, she knew this island was remote and free of such ears. "I rather follow in my mother's footsteps."

Kaguya raised her cup at that, as if to toast her. "Ah, a second coming of the Flash, that would truly be a sight to see." The princess raised her own cup in response and the two drank properly instead of just sipping. The warm liquid ran down Nunnally's throat, a familiar bitterness. Once she was done, Kaguya continued with a smile: "But either way, it is always good to have friends in high places."

"Indeed." Nunnally took and raised another cookie in response, a gesture that was soon imitated by her guest. "Although I was thinking, perhaps we could ignore the high places while in private?"

She became nervous now, wondering whether that might be asking for too much. Commoners had friends; nobles and royals had allies. Yet she kept wondering what it would be like, to have a friend all her own. Milly might be called Lelouch's friend, but even those two did not spend as much time with each other as they used to; Nunnally talked with her even less.

Kaguya mulled over her proposal, having caught the princess' intent. It took a few agonising seconds of her staring at the cookie in her hand before the Japanese girl pushed a stray strand of ebony hair aside. "I appreciate not having to speak with a forked tongue today, but we hardly know each other." Read, no. "Though we will likely see each other quite a bit over the next few years. There is much time to get acquainted."

Once more she had been had, surprised by the turnaround. Nunnally smiled and nodded, then she ate her final cookie for the day. "Very well, how about we start now? What are your hobbies, Kaguya-chan?"

"Hm...."

The heiress tapped her chin a few times as she considered Nunnally, then she shrugged. "My mother tried to get me into flower arrangement, but I do not have a good feeling for that. With what little free time I have, I usually try to pick activities neither Mother nor Father would approve of if they knew, but nothing that others can notice easily."

"Oh? Like what?"
"Like... the last month before coming here, I had one of my maids bring in some super naughty manga to read before bed."
"Um, pardon, manga?"
"Something like comics."
"Ahh!"

Nunnally giggled as everything clicked into place and she could not help but grin at her potential friend. "Be sure to pass them on some time, you got me curious."

"Can do, you will be my partner in crime." They both chuckled and Kaguya pointed back at Nunnally. "Now, out with your dirty laundry. What's with your hobbies?"

Now it was for Nunnally to think. "Well, I actually tried my hand at arranging flowers, too. My teacher did praise me, but I never felt that it was for me. It is too calm, too... slow, if that makes sense. I used to sneak down to the garage and watch Knightmare maintenance, or I went to the shooting range."

Kaguya nodded a few times, a thoughtful glance going to Nunnally. "I imagine you were scolded a lot." Though the princess shook her head at that.

"Not overly much, really. My brother and sister Euphemia got really worried, but Mother just laughed and said I got it from her. At some point she just told me to take an escort instead of sneaking out."

"Your mother sounds great. I hope I can meet her one day."

Nunnally made an agreeing noise and smiled. "I think she would like you quite a bit. You are both a lot more forward than the snakes at court."

"Be sure to introduce me one day." Kaguya reached for another cookie while Nunnally folded her hands, already sated, but then the Japanese girl hesitated. "Say, there was something I always wanted to try. Though it might get us in trouble."

She received an intrigued look at first, though Nunnally soon frowned softly. "Nothing that would strain your injuries, I hope?"

"Oh, that?" The other girl shook her head in turn and finished off her final treat for the day. "Not to worry, Nunnally. It has been a few months, I am all healed up. So, are you interested?"

Soon after, the pair of them wore matching grins once more.

//// Scene ////

Two hours later, a duo of giggling girls stumbled back into the main base. Right toward an exasperated Jeanne who had her arms crossed and brows furrowed. "Your highness, Sumeragi-sama, if you were so kind as to explain this?"

"This what?" Nunnally asked her while steadying the wheezing Japanese. Jeanne merely held up a black-and-white picture of the two of them, barely more than a blur. "The fact I know you possess no license aside, you broke the speed limit. I do not even know how you broke it by that much."

Kaguya finally gathered herself and stood properly again, voice hoarse from how much she had been whooping on their excursion. "That, Dame Rowe, is simple," she explained sagely. "Bikes are awesome." And as if on cue, both girls broke into giggles again.

Jeanne merely covered her face with one hand and wondered if her Prince could run herd on those girls.



Notes: I do not even know if it is canon, but I read some submaterial that covered these two knowing each other; it makes sense too, seeing that Kaguya should have been around the shrine where the siblings lived before the invasion.

Even with their adjusted personalities, I think they still play off each other quite well. This scene would be playing somewhere during Year 6, probably around May or June, a few months before Kaguya's fifteenth birthday.
 
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