[X] Plan: Tactical Espionage Action (Medieval Fantasy Edition)
-[X] Leave behind 1x «Excalibur». Provided you don't get discovered, you expect Asuna will be able to hide it until your assault.
-[X] «Fluctlight Storage Unit»

The essence of the plan is to not rock the boat. We have a way to fulfill Fenrir breaking free, so why not bank a way to have it happen during the assault?

As for the choice of location, going into either the Slime House or Oberon's quarters seems like we'll be asking to get caught. Given how reluctant Sugou is to fork over the existing Fluctlights he has for experimentation as alluded to in a previous post, it'll probably only be occupied by prisoners, and we should be able to trick them easily.
 
I'm torn between letting Asuna out and letting her run about ALO or using our main man Khodumodumo and seeing what happens.

For letting Asuna out given OBERON's sick obsessions Asuna will act as the perfect distraction to send him on a wild goose chase while we continue sowing chaos in the background.

And while using Khodumodumo is a plan with a high chance of chaos it's chaos we'll likely be able to exploit. If Asuna wakes up, great, that's the best scenario, but given how we've cast Khodumodumo as some composite Nidhogg-Loki-Jormundr monster as Lux we might also assimilate Asuna into ourselves and get a powerful narrative effect.
 
I'd rather keep stealth, and with it, the element of surprise. Who knows what will happen if Sugou finds us, if anything, the final assault will probably get harder after we escape.
 
I'm not really sure what we could get in the storage unit. I think it would be better to return with Silica.
Regarless, one last investigation somewhere and leave after that.
 
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We could get concrete proof that Sugou is doing something illegal. After all, the video of Asuna could be dismissed as some kind of deepfake, but screwing around with Fluctlights in ALO? That's definitely going to raise eyebrows, and Sugou is going to have a much harder time talking his way out of that.
 
Since the Shigemura didn't pan out the way we hoped it to be (aka provide us with something to use against Sugou/Oberon), we can't afford to get detected here, or we will like make an already hard fight even harder (also not helped by the fact that Oberon has Holy Sword skill, meaning that he'll both hit hard and be very tanky). To that end, we really should not rock the boat her and do our best to maintain stealth.

EDIT: Lost a not.
 
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No, at Neutral, Oberon needs to roll 5 or 6 to have a success. If we go quiet, he might have to roll at disadvantage, which means a nat 6.
But it says here that he needs to roll a 4 or higher?

The DC to detect you is set at 3. OBERON must roll OVER the DC (ie, a minimum of 4).
So even with a disadvantage that still means rolling a 5 or 6? And I think with a 4d6, the chances of never rolling a 5 or 6 are something like 20%.
 
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To be clear I use a dice pool system.

5, 6 = Success.
1, 2, 3, 4 = Failure.

Currently Oberon rolls 4 dice. He needs 4 Success rolls to catch you. So chances of getting caught are very low. However doing loud actions shifts the Success/Failure system.

For example it you do something loud I may penalize the roll by making 4, 5, 6 count as Success.

Every chapter Oberon gains another dice, rolling more of them.

If you are caught bad things happen.

I'll edit the explanation in the chapter too.
 
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Could Asuna play the role of Fenrir here? Breaks free of the golden cage chains during the ragnarok assault on the world tree? with an excalibur in hand, not to mention she is considered an immortal object
 
I just remembered, can asuna even use Excalibur? Suppose she even has access to her sao skills she uses a rapier, not one handed sword skill
 
When he realized that some of his harem escaped the tree, he just... made it so that they can't do anything when he's not looking. Their minds just shut down until he graces them with their presence.

Lisbeth... was a friend. OBERON said he only took her because he noticed from the SAO data I was spending a lot of time with her. Because of me, he kidnapped her! And he used her just to force me to speak with him. But now even she's just placed in storage...
Luuuuuuux! You managed to notice the card detail but you didn't catch this inconsistency of Asuna's account with the girl you saw like 10 minutes ago? If you questioned her about it and gave her a description of the girl you saw - very much not having their mind shut down or in storage - we'd have been in business!

...Albeit by accident. This is interesting. So the name Silica is going by up here is "Elizabeth" but Asuna very much would not call her that - which means she's almost certainly referring to the actual SAO Lisbeth who may very well be in storage as Asuna says. If she is then her location is probably the Fluctlight Storage Unit? On the other hand, Asuna says she was able to get Lisbeth to check for Kirito with the test subjects and he turned up empty. It's not a guarantee that's where she looked up that info, but my concern is that I'm guessing her getting put into storage was a result of getting caught doing that. Heightened security over there? Or just OBERON/Yanai keeping a closer eye on Asuna's friends and noticing that way? Or it wasn't even related and it was just to torture Asuna some more?

Okay, truthfully I was banking on Silica coming up in this conversation somehow and Lux/Cayna/Asuna putting together it was the girl they passed on the way here... That... didn't happen (she mentioned the wrong SAO friend!) so my plan for all this is in shambles. If it had, I'd have recommended doubling back to Silica trying to help her and then leaving. Low risk too so I'd leave an Excalibur with Asuna.

But absent that? I'm not sure. IC I can't think of a reason to head back to Silica. The Slime House feels like a bad idea. The Fluctlight Storage Unit could be interesting but I don't know what we accomplish going over there... maybe if we had Shiroe. Oberon's Quarters is definitely risky but I could see some benefit to going there. Honestly the way things stand I'm not opposed to withdrawing in the ultimate low risk maneuver, in which case giving Asuna an Excalibur would seem like an easy call. Freeing her now is an interesting idea but unless we can also log her out I think it's way too risky to attempt.
 
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To Silica might be easier to escape if we Forced Logout her?
I'm not sure we could do anything with trapped fluctlights
 
Alright, so Oberon needs to roll a 5 or 6 on a D6 for a success, and he needs 4 successes to catch us. Presumably, he needs 4 successes in total over the course of everything, not 4 successes in one go. Currently, he's rolling 4d6.

Plugging those odds into a dice calculator, Oberon has a 1.23% chance to catch us here and now, 11% odds to get 3 successes, 40% to get 2, and 80% to get 1.

We can get in one more action at least, and *maybe* another, if we are lucky.

Of course, considering we are *deep* in enemy territory, and along with Shiroe's advice, we cannot risk getting busted.

With that in mind, I'm of the mind that we should give Asuna the sword and investigate the brain chamber to get more hard evidence, and perhaps testimony from Mr. Pink Slime. If something lucky somehow occurs in there, we might be able to press onwards. Otherwise, we should bug out.

[X] Plan: Tactical Espionage Action (Medieval Fantasy Edition)
-[X] Leave behind 1x «Excalibur». Provided you don't get discovered, you expect Asuna will be able to hide it until your assault.
-[X] «Fluctlight Storage Unit»
 
Alright, so Oberon needs to roll a 5 or 6 on a D6 for a success, and he needs 4 successes to catch us. Presumably, he needs 4 successes in total over the course of everything, not 4 successes in one go. Currently, he's rolling 4d6.
Actually, I've been assuming he does in fact need to hit 4 successes in one go to detect us. My understanding of the detection rolls has always been the following:

Every action/turn we spend up here he gets another dice.
Depending on what we do we change what he counts as a success on a roll.

Specifically, I think our decision on the ASUNA vote determines what is a success for him. I'm guessing "do nothing" is either advantage/neutral and so he either only counts 6 or 5/6 as success. Giving Excalibur probably is neutral-ish so 5/6. Freeing Asuna is probably a disadvantage so he now would count 4/5/6 as a success and if we pick the option that has Asuna join the party she probably tanks our stealth rating (like how taking Gwen would have but worse) so honestly he might succeed on even a 3. Khodumodumo and he just auto-detects lol.

OBERON success chance this turn if neutral (only 5/6 are a success): 1.23%
OBERON success chance this turn if disadvantage (4, 5, and 6 are successes): 6.25%

After next turn (i.e. he has 5 dice) and assuming nothing dramatic happens to alter the odds:

Neutral: 4.5%
Disadvantage: 18.8%

Basically, as long as we stay quiet we'd need to be pretty unlucky to get caught. But if at any point we go loud, except potentially right now, we'll be playing with fire. If it works as you surmise and he simply needs to achieve 4 successes over the course of our infiltration we need to get out ASAP IMO. Maybe one action.

Argh. I still don't have a great reason to justify it, but I'm too stubborn to give up on my original intent on saving Silica. Given it probably helps resolve the raid boss situation for the real raid it's also probably the clearest link to helping future us. The risk is that Lux can't figure out what we as voters have and is just "who is this small girl?" and doesn't see any reason to act, but hopefully talking to her at least clues her into the connection to the dragon boss so we think to use Hama.

[X]Plan: How to Tame Your Dragon
-[X]Leave behind 1x «Excalibur». Provided you don't get discovered, you expect Asuna will be able to hide it until your assault.
-[X]«Pneuma Flower Garden»
 
We would have to be careful with leaving the sword I think. Even if we escape cleanly, if Sugou sees the confession video (because Asuna's parents showed it to him after we show it to them), the first thing he will likely do once back online is to inspect Asuna closely.
 
We'll probably be able to decide what to do with the video once we leave. As speculated in-character, we can probably release it right before the final assault, which would make things harder for Sugou at a time where he can't afford to split his attention.
 
Fenrir set up.
Jormungandr next
Technically we've already fulfilled the Jormungandr condition back when we ate the World Tree and got Thor killed. I don't think helping Silica will fulfill a Ragnarok condition, I just think we can maybe remove the dragon boss so it's not something we have to deal with on deadline day.
 
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