Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

[Aranfan]

So I was thinking about Conquest groups, and it occurred to me what another major internal difference would be between them and diplomacy groups:

The use of differential stipends and despair rations as tools of social control.

In a Diplomacy group, it would be difficult to enact a differential stipend and downright impossible to enact a differential despair ration. The various cliques wouldn't stand for it, and the overall culture would be against it as well.

In Conquest groups, subordinate cliques don't get a say. The stipend and despair ration for the ruling clique would be lavish, and the same would be meager for the average subordinate clique. With influential or favored cliques somewhere in between. Say the average clique would get a despair ration of 1 cube, a favored or influential clique with an elite or a valuable moneymaker might have a ration of 4 or even 6, the ruling clique sits pretty at 12, and the if a clique displeases the ruling clique they would have their ration deceased, possibly even to 0.

Differential stipends would work similarly and would give the rulers an additional lever. Most punishments and rewards would be in the stipend, while big punishments or rewards would be in the despair ration. This would serve to keep the subordinate cliques at at loggerheads, competing with each other for the favor of the ruling clique.

This kind of thing could also benefit conquest groups by giving lower average spiral and stipend costs. Although I haven't mathed that out.

Furthermore, a Conquest group would not be subject to "insufficient morale" as a failure mode. They care about morale in so far as it effects their megucapower and their cube stockpiles, but subordinate cliques can't just leave if they feel they are getting a shit deal, because the group is kept together by force not by diplomacy.

 

[Diomedea]

Two thoughts.

One: Why not just find a smuggler/gunrunner, create an cover/illusion ID and then order through them, doing a personal pick-up (so no P.O. Box needed)? A lot of our $$ is already in cash, and if the guy gets nabbed, the police would only try to follow up on a non-existent person who has nothing to do with Middle School Girls.

Two: Idea for a mini-series of events. How do we interact with criminals in our town? We already spend a lot of time poking our noses all over town, surely a meguca has run into a mugging or gang-fight or something along that nature. How would a Serene react, and what would our policy be towards the local criminals? With clairvoyants and magic we could effectively crush all organized crime in Mitakihara in a month. Would we want to? Would Mami feel guilty doing nothing?

 

[Elder Haman]

So I was thinking about Conquest groups, and it occurred to me what another major internal difference would be between them and diplomacy groups:

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I had some thoughts on how criminality might come into play.

If the meguca group is involved in crime then a way to gain leverage over new members is to include them in criminal activities.

Shared guilt is a classic and traditional means of controlling new members of gangs. "If you don't follow the rules we tell people about what you did."

 

[Aranfan]

Dead on as well. The timeline protection aspect terminated and there's a sudden explosion in group formation that from Incubator perspective has no known cause. They are of course quite interested in the why's, but also interested in what impact on their production these groups will have.

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One question that occurs to me is if the timeline protection applies to just humans, or also to any other species the Incubators do contracting with as well. Because it's going to look like a bunch of the cattle were irrationally evaluating the resource constraints as much harsher than it actually is, then suddenly evaluating it correctly.

The change is too big and widespread to just be a few of the cattle realizing things, so that points to outside intervention. And if it's only the humans, then that could be a hint for the incubators about madoka.

 

[aeqnai]

There is a story here, and I want to know what it is.

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In @Trent01's research-focused Science Nation Quests, hyperspace research is notorious for ridiculously low rolls, even after applying modifiers. Eventually this got represented ingame as our researchers Going Mad From The Revelation, and becoming gibbering messes that always repeated the same phrase.

[X]Hyperwave Communications
(5)

Spoiler

Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...Hyperspace is stretchy like cheese...

- Technician Unit Coris

We're not sure what happened to his Spark, but we're quarantining Coris and redoing our math from scratch just to be on the safe side.
- Science Node 928-CB Elet

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[Sereg]

One question that occurs to me is if the timeline protection applies to just humans, or also to any other species the Incubators do contracting with as well. Because it's going to look like a bunch of the cattle were irrationally evaluating the resource constraints as much harsher than it actually is, then suddenly evaluating it correctly.

The change is too big and widespread to just be a few of the cattle realizing things, so that points to outside intervention. And if it's only the humans, then that could be a hint for the incubators about madoka.

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Madoka's intention in her wish of allowing other magical girls to keep their wishes as well as the fact that Madoka has a personality that favours tolerance suggests to me that timeline protection would probably be universe wide. That said, I agree with your assessment. We may have to actively prevent Rebellion and it may be possible for us to discover more about the nature of The Law of Cyles.

 

[Sinsystems]

So I just binge read this quest or at least all the turns and some of the omakes and i've been wondering about the bit about Magical Girls being stuck in a template created when they made their wish.

Now I think we should consider researching a method to adjust the template if for nothing else it will allow us to have those members who are mature enough and don't have a family to assume adult bodies which would allow us to solve a lot of our mundane issues.

 

[Kinematics]

Umm... yeah? That's what I said, and why I am buying 4 sets of leather armor.

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It was an objection to buying 4 suits of kevlar armor, not leather.

No. They can't. Elite's Solo going to 12 Demon Strength = 20% (Solo) - 15% (Elite bonus) - 11% (Solo safety bonus) - 1.3% (current DS) + 6.7% (1/2 the increase in DS) + 5% (Rotating Tactics) = 4.3% risk of injury to Elites going Solo.

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They don't have to go naked...

In the future, (going from 0 to 12 Demon Strength) Elites will be at 5% risk going Solo. Which mean they need a full set of Kevlar to fight solo which is why I want to get more sets of Kevlar.

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Yes, they need kevlar to hunt solo, but we don't need more kevlar to cover them (except for this turn where we're hunting to +12 instead of +10, so need 1 more suit).

Also, the Vets are at -1.6% risk, not +0.3% risk. I don't even know where you got the numbers for that. Vets pair hunting are: 16% (Pairs) - 5% (Vets bonus) - 15% (Pairs Safety bonus) - 1.3% (current DS) + 6.7% (1/2 the increase in DS) + 5% (Rotating Tactics) - 6% (full Kevlar) = -1.6%

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Vets hunting in pairs this turn, which reaches 11.9 demon strength with 2.5 solo elite + 10 vets, would be at: (16% base risk + 5% RT + 5.3% avg demon strength) - (15% safety + 5% vet + 6% kevlar) = 26.3% - 26% = 0.3%. Adding up the numbers you just gave above, you get 0.4% (based on probably a ~12.1 demon strength total instead of 11.9). I have no idea how you get -1.6%.

We don't have a 0.5 Green available. It's only reasonable to put the greens on the restaurant instead of hunting. The vet solo hunting does have a full set of Kevlar. With 11 Vets on the North, and 1 Vet Solo in the Rural area that is 12 Sets of Kevlar.

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We have 1 green in support and 6 greens on jobs, for 7 total out of 8 available. I'd assumed we were continuing the training manual this month for 0.5 (since it was indicated it was a two-month job), and put the other 0.5 on hunting. Putting the 0.5 green on hunting in rural means we can delay giving the kevlar set to the rural vet til next turn. Along with only needing 10 vets in the north instead of 11, that means we're only 0.5 short of the kevlar needed for the month, so a single kevlar set purchase is all that's necessary (and really not even that, since we technically don't need to give extra protection to the Kyouko clone). Oh, and 1 leather for the green.

Also, don't forget we have pay Kyubey 12 more cubes this turn.

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Actually, 11 cubes this turn; 12 on the next two turns.

My thought is that next turn, once the restaurant is going, we can pull two more girls off of the odd jobs and again have some people available for diplomacy. Kaoru's training will also be done, so we will have more people there. And with more Kevlar we can afford to solo hunt the Elites, and so have at least one more vet there. This means that next turn we should have 4 to 5 Vets available for Diplomacy or additional research options (we have 2 dedicated to that right now).

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Yeah, I was reaching similar conclusions on my followup post. After accounting for the mandatory stuff, we should have 7 vets and 1 green available for research and diplomacy, which gives us lots of leeway.

 

[Aranfan]

Speaking, of the manual, I didn't see it in anyone's plan. Since it's basically my single issue for a while, unless your plan has something to the effect of "edit, translate, and post the manual online for all to learn from" I'm probably not going to vote for it.

 

[inverted_helix]

Actually, 11 cubes this turn; 12 on the next two turns.

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The 11 was taken at the end of turn 25. He's correct that 12 will be taken for turn 26 and 27.

Also it's going to be a long long time (no way this quest gets that far) before you run into any other species that the Incubators may or may not be harvesting from. (Largely because FTL travel isn't really something you have available, but also because this is inspired by To The Stars and they didn't run into other Incubator agriculture species despite having FTL.)

 

[Sinsystems]

The 11 was taken at the end of turn 25. He's correct that 12 will be taken for turn 26 and 27.

Also it's going to be a long long time (no way this quest gets that far) before you run into any other species that the Incubators may or may not be harvesting from. (Largely because FTL travel isn't really something you have available, but also because this is inspired by To The Stars and they didn't run into other Incubator agriculture species despite having FTL.)

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So I have to ask is it possible within this quest to figure out how to change the template each magical girl is stuck as? Because I can see it being needed to accomplish the "allow for a normal life" side goal for the girls and having someone who appears to be an adult (we could probably get the records made and at least one of our more mature girls must be an orphan) acting as 'supervisor' would really help deflect some suspicioins.

 

[inverted_helix]

So I have to ask is it possible within this quest to figure out how to change the template each magical girl is stuck as? Because I can see it being needed to accomplish the "allow for a normal life" side goal for the girls and having someone who appears to be an adult (we could probably get the records made and at least one of our more mature girls must be an orphan) acting as 'supervisor' would really help deflect some suspicioins.

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Each of your veterans has enough skill to use illusions to present an adult appearance.

As to changing what they're stuck as, it would be a very long term research project, as keep in mind in To The Stars it's been something like 4 centuries and they haven't managed it. (At least I gave you an illusion opt out to make things reasonably easier, they had things harder.)

 

[Kinematics]

The 11 was taken at the end of turn 25. He's correct that 12 will be taken for turn 26 and 27.

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Oh. Well, I screwed that up. At least it doesn't really hurt anything; just need to add 1 more cube to the payment pile. Also nice that we only have two more turns of payments to deal with.

 

[Elder Haman]

Vets hunting in pairs this turn, which reaches 11.9 demon strength with 2.5 solo elite + 10 vets, would be at: (16% base risk + 5% RT + 5.3% avg demon strength) - (15% safety + 5% vet + 6% kevlar) = 26.3% - 26% = 0.3%. Adding up the numbers you just gave above, you get 0.4% (based on probably a ~12.1 demon strength total instead of 11.9). I have no idea how you get -1.6%.

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I made a mistake somewhere. That is what I get for thinking I could handle addition in my head. Must have carried a number incorrectly.

Well in that case we can only go up to 10 DS normally. This turn we might be able to get away with 11 DS.

I will recalculate. This means there will be more people available for other stuff.

Actually, 11 cubes this turn; 12 on the next two turns.

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Nevermind , I see I got ninjad on this.

I'd assumed we were continuing the training manual this month for 0.5 (since it was indicated it was a two-month job), and put the other 0.5 on hunting.

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Was this a two month job? I thought it was one month. It sure sounded like we finished it last turn.

@inverted_helix Can you confirm,was the manual a one month or two month job?

 

[Elder Haman]

As to changing what they're stuck as, it would be a very long term research project, as keep in mind in To The Stars it's been something like 4 centuries and they haven't managed it. (At least I gave you an illusion opt out to make things reasonably easier, they had things harder.)

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That's not true. To the Stars explicitly mentions girls changing the age at which they show.

It's mentioned repeatedly and pretty early on too. Mami appears to be in her late teens to early twenties because it makes it easier to take a commander seriously who doesn't look like a middle schooler.

On the trip up the protagonist overhears other magical girls mentioning that they appear in their twenties because their husbands prefer that they not look the age they contracted at. Other girls like Yuma insist on appearing the age they contracted at.

According to the flash back scenes Kyouko at one point aged up so she could front their semi-Yakuza business front.

Although the earliest flashback scenes do mention the difficulty of never aging, and having to move so the neighbors would not catch on. Although it was also mentioned in Mami's case that she had to deliberately keep herself from aging to stay with the other girls who stayed the age they contracted - possibly because her mental model did support aging. She felt older then everyone else because of her role.

Your description was actually a major departure from the depiction in To The Stars, so I had assumed it was deliberate. Such as difficulty having children. Was that not the case?

In fact, if this is the first time large groups have appeared, that means Kyubey's information is based on a very small sample size and may be inaccurate. For example, magical girls might typically feel insecure about having children because of the lifestyle. This might lead them to instinctively suppress pregnancy, unless they are specifically driven to want children - correlated with wishes around that issue.

(This is also a reality in many species, rabbits for example can suppress pregnancy in troubled times. Humans are actually rather unusual in not being able to instinctively suppress pregnancy.)

With the rise of organizations like the Serenes this might change and invalidate earlier data that Kyubey has.

 

[Aranfan]

@inverted_helix Can you confirm,was the manual a one month or two month job?

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Compiling the Manual was a one month job. The plan however, was to then post the manual online in many languages for the benefit of other meguca. To help keep the masquerade up we would edit it to look like an "in universe document" for a magical girl setting, which any real magical girl would recognize as RL. This is the second month.

 

[Elder Haman]

Compiling the Manual was a one month job. The plan however, was to then post the manual online in many languages for the benefit of other meguca. To help keep the masquerade up we would edit it to look like an "in universe document" for a magical girl setting, which any real magical girl would recognize as RL. This is the second month.

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Gotcha...

That doesn't seem like it would take much. Maybe 0.5 megucas spent on it?

 

[inverted_helix]

Your description was actually a major departure from the depiction in To The Stars, so I had assumed it was deliberate. Such as difficulty having children. Was that not the case?

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Hmm it's been a couple years since I read it actually so I guess memory degradation. I just remember reading the sections about how soldiers felt an obligation to protect magical girls who looked the age of children even if they could be far older than the soldier.

Also recall the MC in that meeting some of her ancestors and them looking similar age to her.

Although the earliest flashback scenes do mention the difficulty of never aging, and having to move so the neighbors would not catch on.

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Or this perhaps.

It is a departure then, but somewhat reasonable, this might be a problem that the MSY solved in its past if they mention the problem. So I'm not marking it as impossible really, but it is going to be a very long term research proposition relative to the time scale of this quest regardless. I'm taking inspiration from TTS but with my own spin anyways. (If they had to move because of that problem it obviously took years to resolve, which puts it at very long research relative to my month turn time frame in any case.)

In fact, if this is the first time large groups have appeared, that means Kyubey's information is based on a very small sample size and may be inaccurate. For example, magical girls might typically feel insecure about having children because of the lifestyle. This might lead them to instinctively suppress pregnancy, unless they are specifically driven to want children - correlated with wishes around that issue.

(This is also a reality in many species, rabbits for example can suppress pregnancy in troubled times. Humans are actually rather unusual in not being able to instinctively suppress pregnancy.)

With the rise of organizations like the Serenes this might change and invalidate earlier data that Kyubey has.

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Some of his data will definitely not always be accurate. However there have been a few meguca that lived for very long periods in the past, just not groups.

Though calling his sample size very small is inaccurate. He has the recordings of virtually all past meguca through human history.

@inverted_helix Can you confirm,was the manual a one month or two month job?

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Compiling the Manual was a one month job.

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This is correct. You've compiled your private manual, but making it available online was the second month's effort.

 

[Elder Haman]

@inverted_helix

How much will it cost for Kyubey to get us some real identification as a fake person supposedly associated with the yakuza, and we then use that plus illusion to rent a PO box in that person's name to which the Kevlar will be dropped off to. When we make a pick up we always use an illusion to make us look like the fake person.

What would be the one time cost for this. (As we can just keep the id, but drop the PO Box and only set one up when we need to buy something suspicious).

 

[TheEyes]

@inverted_helix

How much will it cost for Kyubey to get us some real identification as a fake person supposedly associated with the yakuza, and we then use that plus illusion to rent a PO box in that person's name to which the Kevlar will be dropped off to. When we make a pick up we always use an illusion to make us look like the fake person.

What would be the one time cost for this. (As we can just keep the id, but drop the PO Box and only set one up when we need to buy something suspicious).

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If we're going with that we need to also remember to use a teleporter to completely disassociate Mr. Suspicious from the Serene.

 

[Elder Haman]

If we're going with that we need to also remember to use a teleporter to completely disassociate Mr. Suspicious from the Serene.

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I don't think we need that much. Ms. Suspicious goes into a building and out a different door comes Miss Teenager. Why would people connect the two?

 

[TheEyes]

I don't think we need that much. Ms. Suspicious goes into a building and out a different door comes Miss Teenager. Why would people connect the two?

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Because we have at least 3 teleporters (25/44 non-Elites have defined powers so far, if I'm reading things right) so there's no reason not to, and we need to start being super-paranoid about the masquerade.

 

[Aranfan]

So the diplomacy of absorption. First, let's look at the metrics of organizational power: Meguca, territory, cubes, and dosh. Due to how hunting works, cubes can be eliminated as being purely derivative (assuming any competence at all). Which leaves us with that old trifecta of national power.

1. Land
2. Labor
3. Capital

I am tempted to assert that, as a matter of organizational pride, no group will "join" any group that doesn't surpass them in at least one of these metrics. Which makes sense, any group that has more girls, territory, and money than another group will laugh at the notion of joining rather than being joined, and conquest would be damn near impossible.

However it's not completely true, only usually. If a small organization is composed entirely of elites, it would be able to conquer one with twice as many people. Legendary can fight entire organizations and win. And discipline, clever tactics, and a militaristic culture can do much to even the odds when outnumbered, especially at the low absolute populations of Meguca organizations. Macedonia did conquer Persia that one time, and it can absolutely happen for MG groups.

So there are four metrics

1. Land
2. Labor
3. Capital
4. Military

It remains true that no organization will consent to join an organization that is smaller than them on all metrics. An organization with less territory, less puella, and less cash is a weaker organization and by all rights is the one that should be absorbed.

I am lying. There is a fifth metric: Prestige.

An example is a group that has a reputation for success and recovery after crises, and that is currently in recovery mode. A currently larger group might elect to join the currently smaller group on the logic of "getting in on the ground floor", as they assume that the current weakness is a temporary state of affairs that will soon pass.

However, as prestige is strongly correlated with military prowess and organizational success, situations where an organization only has prestige over another are going to be rare.

So anyway.

The foregoing was just a pre-requisite. The decision to fold your organization into another one is not a light decision and must be made on many dimensions only some of which are based on organizational power. Here is some of them in no particular order:

• How much autonomy will be kept?
• What are the casualty rates like?
• Do our new overlords speak the same language as us?
• Do our new overlords look like us?
• Do our new overlords worship the same gods we do?
• Will the stipend increase, decrease, or stay the same?
• The despair ration?
• Are both groups on the same side of the law?
• If not, would being absorbed mean turning criminal or going straight?
• How much say would we get in the policies of the wider organization?
• Do we have any enemies that would see us as a less tempting target if we joined?
• Are we in a crisis that would be solved by joining them?
• What is the other group's leadership like?
• What is the other group's culture like?
• ...

All these things and more go into such a decision. How each question is answered can shift the likelyhood of absorption in either direction, and crucially, different groups are going to give different weights to each question. What might be a deal breaker for one group, might be the deal maker for another even if the answer is exactly the same, due to different prioritization and worldviews.

So the best way to succeed in any recruitment is going to vary. There is no one size fits all algorithm to follow for absorbing another group. We can improve our chances in general by being successful organizationally, by being militarily powerful, by keeping casualties down, and by having a charismatic leader and a good reputation.

But this isn't a sure thing, and the best method of approach for any given group is going to depend on more factors than we can reasonably demand Helix to flesh out.

 

[Kinematics]

I made a mistake somewhere. That is what I get for thinking I could handle addition in my head. Must have carried a number incorrectly.

Well in that case we can only go up to 10 DS normally. This turn we might be able to get away with 11 DS.

I will recalculate. This means there will be more people available for other stuff.

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Assuming continuation of the hardline of 0% casualty risks, we can drop from 2.5 elite + 10 vets (final DS+11.9, risk 0.3%) to 2.5 elite + 9.5 vets (final DS+11, risk -0.1%), and conveniently enough that means we're using exactly 12 kevlar suits. We don't need to drop to DS+10. Will lose 2 cubes, though.

In that case, 1 kevlar suit purchase this turn would be adequate for the rural vet, which frees up the 0.5 green. That will leave us 1 full green for the manual, or whatever else we want to use her on for now, in case we hold off publishing it.

We won't need any additional kevlar beyond that until we start expanding again, even if we pull all elites off of hunting.

We'll now have 0.5 free vets (from reducing the number set on hunting), so we can use that for a light recruit on area 10, with a Kyuubey assist (1 cube). Pulling the other 0.5 from hunting to diplomacy would remove the 1 cube Kyuubey cost, but reduce harvest by 2 cubes, so... meh.

 

[Elder Haman]

Re-did my plan to correct for math errors.

Just wasn't able to break the other areas down well with .5 increments, but two .25 increments work perfectly, and leaves us with 15 total vets hunting in addition to the 2.5 elites. Hope that's okay. Otherwise I think we ought to just underhunt, as we will lose 1 cube, and will gain 0.5 free vets over the current plan (and a full vet over a plan that is limited to .5 increments).

Put 0.5 vets on finishing off the manual and changing it into a Magical Girl RPG.

That leaves 1 extra Vet.

Currently I have her opening relations with Area 1.

Other options include:

Opening relations with Area 11 or Area 10 instead.
Keeping Ayase working on her current job, so we drop no one from their current jobs.
Information: Aid to Area 9. We could give them our manual directly and see what they think.

I'm kind of tempted to do that last one.

EDIT: I suppose we could drop another current job worker and get another vet to do one of the above in addition to the open relations...