Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)
- Thread starter inverted_helix
- Start date
If you are doing a Kaori Omake you might want to re-read turn 14 which has a bit of fluff about her. Implications for what her wish was probably.
Crow
Falling is a Pleasure. Regardless of its Fate
Whew! i was a little behind, i can try to whip up something if you people are fine with it?
Okay, is the blueberry one of the originals? she is a vet now right?
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Another thing to consider though is that in canon Kyouko probably felt conflicted by Mami's death. One part that it justified her own actions, and one part grieving over it. Here there's the case where it appears Mami is fully justified in her beliefs, and Kyouko might want to dig in her heels over that.
Seems most people have accepted that, I had just been concerned by the initial negative response.
Yes it makes more sense, but it's a lot simpler to just overlay a city boundary map. (And I can then gain population data.)
2 vets and a green in one group, 4 greens in the other. Territory is divided between them.
This made me laugh.
Note poisoned =/= dead. If it was that bad there'd be more enforcement.
She was one of your original greens that is now a vet.
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I would not be surprised if Keiko had a dwarf fortress style "blood powered kitten mulcher". It's the only way I can see her offing enough kittens to explain this.
Either that or Madokami has her eye on her former sempai
I found a post in which Inverted_helix detailed combat mechanics. It's rather convoluted.
: 1d20 for Green, 2d20 for Vet, 6d20 for Elite for a total combat strength = A, I do the same for the enemy for B.
Then I roll 1dX-1 = C and 1dY = D. C and D being the girls involved in the individual engagement.
This simulates the fact that there are no clear battles where everyone shows up to fight everyone else at once, it's a form of guerrilla combat where you might encounter local numerical inferiority despite superior strategic strength.
Then your strength in that engagement is A*C/X vs their B*D/Y.
Then I repeat with 1d(X-C-1) and 1d(Y-D) until the whole pool is done.
Then I roll 1dX-1 = C and 1dY = D. C and D being the girls involved in the individual engagement.
This simulates the fact that there are no clear battles where everyone shows up to fight everyone else at once, it's a form of guerrilla combat where you might encounter local numerical inferiority despite superior strategic strength.
Then your strength in that engagement is A*C/X vs their B*D/Y.
Then I repeat with 1d(X-C-1) and 1d(Y-D) until the whole pool is done.
1 elite is worth 3 vets, who are worth 6 greens. In this case, I'd rather stick with the generally accepted military doctrine of 3/1 attackers vs. defenders and just send eight or nine vets backed by Mami rather than actually do this algorithmic bullshit.
Edit: on the other hand, they will soon hunt themselves into destruction, so waiting them out then scooping up the remains is entirely possible.
Our situation is more sustainable than initial appearances might suggest. The fluff of the last few turns pretty clearly indicates that many (but not all) of those that left intend to come back, and the end of this turn suggest population decline is going to reduce significantly. Basically, we'd have to overhunt for 2-3 turns but things would recover after that.
Having Kyouko's territory would make things a lot easier on us, but it's not going to be the end of us if we don't get it immediately.
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Hmm... so we could try and team up with one of the two groups.
Upkeep needs to be updated. The green that was working is now a vet. So I'm going to assume that the 7 Vets 4 Greens means that the 1.5 upkeeps are split 1 Vet and .5 Green each. We also have +2 Vets upkeep because of the Improved Dispatch service.
So 9 Vets and 4 Greens on upkeep.
Bonuses:
Demon Strength: +5%
Vets get -5% bonus
Pack: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -1% (Solo Tactics) -0% (Defending Others) - 4% (Pack Tactics) = Total -10% for Pack
Pair: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -2% (Solo Tactics) -1% (Defending Others) - 2% (Pack Tactics) -1% (cellphones) = Total -11% for Pair
Solo: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -3% (Solo Tactics) -2% (cellphones) = Total -10% for Solo
Rotating Tactics Add-on would give +5% but reduce the effect of over hunting.
1.5 Vets and .5 Green to refresh the General Combat Training for 1% bonus to all hunting methods
1.5 Vets and .5 Green to refresh Defending Other Training for additional 1% bonus to Pair and Pack Hunting.
We could get [] Telepathic Coordination for 3 Vets and 1 Green? For -2% bonus to pair and -1%bonus to pack.
Assessment:
Solo, even for vets, will have a 5% chance of injury for each girl. 4% if we refresh General Combat
Pair, right now has 0% Casualty rate for Vets, and 5% for Greens. If we got all the possible bonuses it would be -4% injury chance for Vets, and 1% chance for greens.
Pack, right now is 0% danger for Greens and -5% danger for Vets. All bonuses total to -3%.
From this I think our possible choices are:
Pair Hunt w/ Vets and Pack Hunt w/ Greens
or
Pack Hunt with all, but vets use rotating tactics.
Either way we want to Pair Hunt Rural w/ 2 Vets = expected grief cubes 4. Probably refresh both General and Defending Others training to deal with increased demon strength and lack of dispatch defense bonus.
So that's:
9 Vets 4 Greens on Upkeep
3 Vets 1 Green on refresh
2 Vets on pair hunting in Rural
--------------
14 Vets and 5 Greens expended
14 Vet and 5 Greens left (Mami has to go talk sense to Kyouko)
1 Vet = Kaori, who is in Iwata and not available really for hunting. Maybe we could have her build bridges by training the local meguca?
We want to scout south in both area 1 and 2, so at least 2 vets need to be saved for that. Maybe Kaori could do one of these missions.
@inverted_helix What is the cost of expanding the courier business to Kasimono? Estimated returns, etc.
11 Vets pair hunting would be an expected harvest of 40, so could go with that and send 5 of our Greens out to find jobs.
5 Greens and 1 Vet Pack Hunting = 12 expected Grief Cubes
I think we want to do this.
10 Vets Pack Hunting w/ Rotating Tactics = 28 expected Grief cubes, Total of 44 expected harvest. Not enough to wipe out our stockpile deficit, but enough to reduce half of it.
10 Vets Pair Hunting = 36 expected Grief Cubes., Total of 52 Grief Cubes, but over hunting the urban area by 10.
Of course, over hunting that much is risky.
If we also get the Telepathic bonuses then it would look like this:
3 Vets and 1 Green to Train Telepathic Communication.
4 Greens and 1 Vet Pack Hunt = 10 expected grief cubes
7 Vets Pair Hunt = 25 expected grief cubes
Total of 39 expected harvest - Nope, not worth it.
Choices are between the two first options, either Vets Pack Hunt with Rotating Tactics and we get 44 grief cubes, or they Pair Hunt and we get 52 grief Cubes and Very Strong Demons.
I'm leaning towards the Pack Hunting with Rotating Tactics.
Upkeep needs to be updated. The green that was working is now a vet. So I'm going to assume that the 7 Vets 4 Greens means that the 1.5 upkeeps are split 1 Vet and .5 Green each. We also have +2 Vets upkeep because of the Improved Dispatch service.
So 9 Vets and 4 Greens on upkeep.
Bonuses:
Demon Strength: +5%
Vets get -5% bonus
Pack: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -1% (Solo Tactics) -0% (Defending Others) - 4% (Pack Tactics) = Total -10% for Pack
Pair: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -2% (Solo Tactics) -1% (Defending Others) - 2% (Pack Tactics) -1% (cellphones) = Total -11% for Pair
Solo: -1% (dispatch) -1% (General Combat) -3% (shields) -3% (Solo Tactics) -2% (cellphones) = Total -10% for Solo
Rotating Tactics Add-on would give +5% but reduce the effect of over hunting.
1.5 Vets and .5 Green to refresh the General Combat Training for 1% bonus to all hunting methods
1.5 Vets and .5 Green to refresh Defending Other Training for additional 1% bonus to Pair and Pack Hunting.
We could get [] Telepathic Coordination for 3 Vets and 1 Green? For -2% bonus to pair and -1%bonus to pack.
Assessment:
Solo, even for vets, will have a 5% chance of injury for each girl. 4% if we refresh General Combat
Pair, right now has 0% Casualty rate for Vets, and 5% for Greens. If we got all the possible bonuses it would be -4% injury chance for Vets, and 1% chance for greens.
Pack, right now is 0% danger for Greens and -5% danger for Vets. All bonuses total to -3%.
From this I think our possible choices are:
Pair Hunt w/ Vets and Pack Hunt w/ Greens
or
Pack Hunt with all, but vets use rotating tactics.
Either way we want to Pair Hunt Rural w/ 2 Vets = expected grief cubes 4. Probably refresh both General and Defending Others training to deal with increased demon strength and lack of dispatch defense bonus.
So that's:
9 Vets 4 Greens on Upkeep
3 Vets 1 Green on refresh
2 Vets on pair hunting in Rural
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14 Vets and 5 Greens expended
14 Vet and 5 Greens left (Mami has to go talk sense to Kyouko)
1 Vet = Kaori, who is in Iwata and not available really for hunting. Maybe we could have her build bridges by training the local meguca?
We want to scout south in both area 1 and 2, so at least 2 vets need to be saved for that. Maybe Kaori could do one of these missions.
@inverted_helix What is the cost of expanding the courier business to Kasimono? Estimated returns, etc.
11 Vets pair hunting would be an expected harvest of 40, so could go with that and send 5 of our Greens out to find jobs.
5 Greens and 1 Vet Pack Hunting = 12 expected Grief Cubes
I think we want to do this.
10 Vets Pack Hunting w/ Rotating Tactics = 28 expected Grief cubes, Total of 44 expected harvest. Not enough to wipe out our stockpile deficit, but enough to reduce half of it.
10 Vets Pair Hunting = 36 expected Grief Cubes., Total of 52 Grief Cubes, but over hunting the urban area by 10.
Of course, over hunting that much is risky.
If we also get the Telepathic bonuses then it would look like this:
3 Vets and 1 Green to Train Telepathic Communication.
4 Greens and 1 Vet Pack Hunt = 10 expected grief cubes
7 Vets Pair Hunt = 25 expected grief cubes
Total of 39 expected harvest - Nope, not worth it.
Choices are between the two first options, either Vets Pack Hunt with Rotating Tactics and we get 44 grief cubes, or they Pair Hunt and we get 52 grief Cubes and Very Strong Demons.
I'm leaning towards the Pack Hunting with Rotating Tactics.
62.75 - 11.78 | 25.47 ( 0.51 )
win-loss|tie(subbattles lost on average)
Numbers may be off by ~ +/- 0.2
So, pretty likely to tie, good chance to win. If each subbattle lost leads to a casualty we're expected to lose ~half a person on average.
Dice pool was 16 vs 9, so we were using what's pretty close to overwhelming forces.
Change the values for good, bad, gdice, and bdice for the number of combatants on each side. good=attackers. Increase reps for additional precision but much longer computation time.
Code:
import random
def f(x1,y1,a,b):
x = x1
y = y1
side = 0
deaths = 0
while (x>1 and y>0):
c = random.randint(1,x-1)
x -= c
d = random.randint(1,y)
y -= d
if (a*c/x1 > b*d/y1): side+=1
if (a*c/x1 < b*d/y1):
side-=1
deaths+=1
return (side,deaths)
def nd20(n):
tmp = 0
for x in range(n):
tmp += random.randint(1,20)
return tmp
win=0
loss=0
ties=0
#1 for green, 2 for vet, 6 for elite
good = 7
bad = 7
gdice = 6+2*6
bdice = 2*2+5
reps = 100000
totdeaths = 0
for x in range(reps):
groll = nd20(gdice)
broll = nd20(bdice)
(battle,deaths) = f(good,bad,groll,broll)
totdeaths += deaths
if(battle>0): win+=1
if(battle<0): loss+=1
if(battle==0):ties+=1
print(good,gdice,"vs",bad,bdice);
print(win/reps*100,"-",loss/reps*100,"|",ties/reps*100,"(",totdeaths/reps,")")I could see going for that healing now, for family-members only. The grief cube cost is incredibly annoying, but probably better than the morale penalty from family dying. On the money front we should have enough reserves, though I definitely think that aiming for that idol job has the potential to make a LOT of money. Still though, losing money slowly isn't the biggest problem now that our income has hit the bottom.
@inverted_helix If we use Rotating Tactics, can we have only veterans hunt with that and have greens hunt normally? Would that just reduce the multiplier or would it eliminate the benefits entirely?
We're currently at -10% casualties due to bonuses (-15% to veterans). We can get ~2% more by spending ~3 veterans and 1 green. (estimating)
If we do pack hunt+rotating given our current demon strength we're going to get 5% casualties, even among veterans. Is this unacceptably high?
Preliminary plan: (edited for updated upkeep)
10v+4g upkeep
mami on Kyouko
3v+1g on training (general+defending others)
get the QB analysis boost
3g pack hunting (6.1875 cubes)
15v pack hunting + rotating tactics (46.40625 cubes)
2g pair hunt rural (3.168 cubes)
Expected harvest: ~55.8 cubes
If we are doing the attack an Itawa then we don't have the people to sufficiently overharvest such that rotating tactics is worthwhile, but it'd be a lot of territory gained.
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I think you got cut off there.
So attacking Itawa is an option.
Analysis on the hunting forgot that we need 2 Vets to maintain the dispatch service.
I doubt there is an idol job just waiting in Kasimono for us. Even with perfect pitch (Kaoru) there will be difficulties finding that kind of job. Plus the pay is not likely to be much of anything for the first year until we get a large fanbase.
That's weird, I know I deleted that end part. Ignore it.
It is an option, though one that is quite risky.
Whoops, yeah, thought they were part of upkeep since they were before and didn't think to check. That loses us 6.1875 cubes. That puts us at just barely enough to remove the morale penalty.
Thing is though it's a freaking magical voice. Pitch perfect alone = no way. Being able to put all viewers into any emotional state? That's the sort of thing that would become very huge very quickly. It might cost us an extra cube or something, but there really shouldn't be anything to prevent us from lacing the song with magic.
Upkeep updated. 10 veterans 4 greens total (I had not updated some of the costs and originally wasn't going to include dispatch as unclear if you'd continue it or not). The 1.5 upkeeps are bumped to 1.5 vet an .5 green. Keep in mind they are 5% of your population each, your population increased enough to increase them overall.
These are accurate.
Approximately half of the original. 1 vet, 2 green minimum with $4500 payoff. Call it $4000 investment in initial advertising.
I'll allow it and reduce the multiplier proportionally.
One I think you're overestimating the impact of actual singing skill on becoming a star. Two you're assuming that the magic propagates through electronic media I think.
Has anyone suggested treating grief spirals through magical song? Or would that be less efficient than the use of actual cubes?
Personally, I think that the option to attack Iwata would be seen as wrong to many Puella. I was discussing Sayaka's characterization with Crow earlier, but I think it applies to more than just the For Great Justice! types: assuming that Kyouko's territory is known to be huge and known to have only one MG there, it'd go over very poorly for Mami to order an attack on Iwata when Kyouko has more than enough to share. Why would you chase those girls out, and not Kyouko?
Thus Sayaka going off on her own to confront Kyouko. I can see it now, already ending in tears.
Personally, I think that the option to attack Iwata would be seen as wrong to many Puella. I was discussing Sayaka's characterization with Crow earlier, but I think it applies to more than just the For Great Justice! types: assuming that Kyouko's territory is known to be huge and known to have only one MG there, it'd go over very poorly for Mami to order an attack on Iwata when Kyouko has more than enough to share. Why would you chase those girls out, and not Kyouko?
Thus Sayaka going off on her own to confront Kyouko. I can see it now, already ending in tears.
Yeah, I was assuming #2. If it doesn't transfer though electronics then being an idol doesn't work as a super-job until we get the fanbase to start with, which is long and difficult. Might get more just from being a street musician then, not sure on the laws for that though. And it's not like being a street musician pays much of anything at all.
For the courier expansion, if we do that and the training then we don't have enough people to make overhunting worthwhile.
Also, updating my proposed overhunting plan now. It's looking a lot worse though, so I could definitely support an Attack on Itawa plan.
Because Kyouko is an Elite on the defensive, and would be an utter bitch to extract. it would seriously be easier to punch out all those green, and we'd probably lose fewer girls as well.
No, I understand the mechanics. I'm looking at it from an In-Character perspective.
That is the in character perspective. This shit is feudal, and in guerilla warfare Kyouko would hurt us badly.
Far more then wet behind the ears girls that are threatening our youngest member.
Do you seriously think they will just ignore her? those girls are already overhunting their turf- and when they get desperate, they are going to go looking at little Kaori who has been getting GC from home.
Frankly, I would probably see if we could recruit one of the factions, reinforce that team and then crush the other group. On the other hand, crushing both might be costly, but would definitely free up more potential harvest that we need.
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Surprisingly, the odds aren't that bad. Sending Mami+6 veterans against Kyouko:
68.82 - 31.09 | 0.08 ( 0.31 )
We're actually more likely to win vs. Kyouko, it just most of the ties turn into losses.
I could definitely see joining in with one group and pushing out the other. That's basically what we did before with that 2-person territory just on a large scale.
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So, basically we would lose more girls but have better odds of overall success?.
Is this factoring in Kyouko's 'bullshit' combat bonus?
Anyway slow down. Omakes will be incoming at some point to aid diplomacy. If you want omakes written about conquering territory, someone else is gonna have to write them cuz' I'm definitely not going to.
I'm not actually sure how the subbattles lost corresponds to casualties, so I'm not sure how many girls we're going to lose. A subbattle could be 1 casualty or it could be everyone involved. We lose more subbatles against kyouko but we sometimes lose people even if we win overall against Iwata. It approximately balances out.
Though yes, this is ignoring Kyouko's bullshit elite bonus. We don't have any numbers on it so I can't add it in.
No reason to get so heated over this. Your situation is still quite alright. A little unstable perhaps but not too bad. (It surprises me how prone people are to panicking sometimes when things start to get a little tough.)
The balancing is intentionally a bit feudal yes.
Mami spent the past year and a half working on building SIMP. Kyouko spent the past year and a half developing her power so she'd never have to rely on anyone besides herself. That's why I said that if they threw down right now Mami will lose: a year and a half ago when they split Mami might have won 9 times out of 10, but Mami's spent that time mostly recruiting and playing mother hen, Kyouko didn't. She's got a trick up her sleeve that you really don't want to encounter the first time by fighting her.
Though Asael is also right that you've essentially got Kaori getting food from home while the girls in her area are starving, that's not a stable situation.
Incidentally you might now have enough information to guess Kyouko's bonus in broad strokes, though I'm notoriously bad at giving clues, so probably not.
The balancing is intentionally a bit feudal yes.
Mami spent the past year and a half working on building SIMP. Kyouko spent the past year and a half developing her power so she'd never have to rely on anyone besides herself. That's why I said that if they threw down right now Mami will lose: a year and a half ago when they split Mami might have won 9 times out of 10, but Mami's spent that time mostly recruiting and playing mother hen, Kyouko didn't. She's got a trick up her sleeve that you really don't want to encounter the first time by fighting her.
Though Asael is also right that you've essentially got Kaori getting food from home while the girls in her area are starving, that's not a stable situation.
This is actually a good idea. I'll tell you what. I'll apply a bonus to the grief spiral severity/confirmation roll to account for this in cases where Kaoru is available. I'll count it as the proving your mettle omake bonus (despite being non related) just to get that off the balance sheet. Sharing your Tears would be more related, but Haman declared that as a bonus to Iwata outpost rolls.
Incidentally you might now have enough information to guess Kyouko's bonus in broad strokes, though I'm notoriously bad at giving clues, so probably not.
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new ideas:
"Lost Pet, Albino, named Kyubey, very smart and comes if called by name. Tail split in two due to accident. Please call if you have any information on my pet" -poster for getting in contact with magical girls
internet postings of drawings of the real kyubey for the same reason.
maybe hosting or looking for a private discussion forum for magical girls that you have to register and be approved by the admin to get onto. Might be worth asking Kyubey to handle that.
business cards to hand out to mundanes ... and magical girls.
Ask kyubey how he stays invisible from mundanes and if we can imitate that process (or demons for that matter). Particularly in terms of messages that only magical girls can see
offering any any magical girls we meet cellphones so we don't have so much trouble finding them again. If they're worried about tracking then out scouts could go together to with them to buy a new one. Exchange numbers whenever possible
Offer magical girls in surrounding areas free demon statistic tracking if they bring us the data
Always ask them to pass along information about us to other magical girls they meet
grief cubes for incubator-tech that could be sold maybe? Even just human level tech that happens to be a new invention would be useful. Maybe software that we could make money off of but wouldn't be giving humanity as a whole anything.
"Lost Pet, Albino, named Kyubey, very smart and comes if called by name. Tail split in two due to accident. Please call if you have any information on my pet" -poster for getting in contact with magical girls
internet postings of drawings of the real kyubey for the same reason.
maybe hosting or looking for a private discussion forum for magical girls that you have to register and be approved by the admin to get onto. Might be worth asking Kyubey to handle that.
business cards to hand out to mundanes ... and magical girls.
Ask kyubey how he stays invisible from mundanes and if we can imitate that process (or demons for that matter). Particularly in terms of messages that only magical girls can see
offering any any magical girls we meet cellphones so we don't have so much trouble finding them again. If they're worried about tracking then out scouts could go together to with them to buy a new one. Exchange numbers whenever possible
Offer magical girls in surrounding areas free demon statistic tracking if they bring us the data
Always ask them to pass along information about us to other magical girls they meet
grief cubes for incubator-tech that could be sold maybe? Even just human level tech that happens to be a new invention would be useful. Maybe software that we could make money off of but wouldn't be giving humanity as a whole anything.
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I'm guessing Kyouko has some update on Rossa Fantasima that gives her sneak attack bonuses and makes it almost impossible to get her with having her hit us first, and probably in the most vulnerable location.
I didn't comment on it yet, but it appears that the negative impact of Demon strength below average are negative morale bonuses. Hence Kyouko being so down.
Another consideration is that attacking Kyouko probably means losing out on her as a 2nd Elite for our team. Unless of course you want to try a face off where Mami beats her and then tries to convince Kyouko that defeat means friendship, cause look at how cooperation made us even stronger then you alone...
Nah, too risky.
I think this turn we should have Mami go after Kyouko again and hope for a good roll while Kaori offers Pack Tactics Training to the local girls and see which one of the groups is amenable to cooperation. If we don't get Kyouko's territory this month then we have to look at something like combining with one of the groups at Itawa and driving out the others.
Or maybe we could suggest a sharecropping plan to Kyouko. We are allowed to hunt X number of grief cubes in her territory and we give her 1/3 of them? We really only need a few extra to be stable.
Scouting Areas 1 and 2 again are an additional option.
So I think we are okay, we have two or three options that can put us at stability again.
I didn't comment on it yet, but it appears that the negative impact of Demon strength below average are negative morale bonuses. Hence Kyouko being so down.
Another consideration is that attacking Kyouko probably means losing out on her as a 2nd Elite for our team. Unless of course you want to try a face off where Mami beats her and then tries to convince Kyouko that defeat means friendship, cause look at how cooperation made us even stronger then you alone...
Nah, too risky.
I think this turn we should have Mami go after Kyouko again and hope for a good roll while Kaori offers Pack Tactics Training to the local girls and see which one of the groups is amenable to cooperation. If we don't get Kyouko's territory this month then we have to look at something like combining with one of the groups at Itawa and driving out the others.
Or maybe we could suggest a sharecropping plan to Kyouko. We are allowed to hunt X number of grief cubes in her territory and we give her 1/3 of them? We really only need a few extra to be stable.
Scouting Areas 1 and 2 again are an additional option.
So I think we are okay, we have two or three options that can put us at stability again.
Kind of a cunning idea, though Kyuubey may not approve of such publicity.
Many of the rest rely on things the Incubators would have no interest in sharing. Or cooperation from other magical girls that wouldn't be too terribly likely.
Close but not quite.
Yes to a large degree. The lowering demon combat strength essentially makes their effect on emotions increasingly pronounced. It's a literal build up of negative emotion that affects the human population as well as meguca. Kyouko has realized this, but decided that it was an acceptable tradeoff for the safety.
I'd guess her power as giving her an illusory clone copy of herself that can actually deal damage. She somehow needs to harvest 8 cubes per month from her territory, something that is not easy to so.
Jeeze though, Kyouko must have a stash of over 100 cubes unless she's been doing something to waste them. Even if she takes 2 herself that's 6/month for well over a year.
Jeeze though, Kyouko must have a stash of over 100 cubes unless she's been doing something to waste them. Even if she takes 2 herself that's 6/month for well over a year.