Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
Way too complicated.
Fair enough.

Let's go for a more simplified version then.

Let's just say, as this is turn 28, that the average experience of our Vets is a year's worth.

And we'll use every 2 months for a +1 to that 'Vet' bonus. So +6 to our Vet Rolls. Every two months that go by without us losing more than say 5-10% of our Vets, or increasing by more than 5-10% of our vets results in another +1 being added to that. To whatever Cap inverted_helix wants.

If we do get / lose any in that range, we don't earn a point for those two months. We go beyond that we start losing vet points.


So for example...

Turn 30 - We have 50 Vets. And say +5 Vet Bonus, with a +1 earned for making it to this month. So we have +6 for actions on Turn 31.
Turn 31 - We gain +1 Vets. Not past a certain % of our group, so nothing to worry about.
Turn 32 - We gain +2 Vets. Still too small, so we're fine, add another +1 to our vet bonus.
Turn 33 - We gain +5 Vets. That's 9% or so of our new current max. So this month doesn't count towards 'training' vet bonus.
Turn 34 - We gain +3 Vets. That's smaller than the amount, this month counts.
Turn 35 - We lose 1 or (get -1 Vet XD). That's smaller than the amount, this month counts another +1 to our vet bonus for a total of +7.

And we can say the max for Vets is +10.
Combat focused groups that have high turnover get assigned (1d3) vet points. So 1 to 3.
Middle focused groups get (1d3+1) So 2 to 4.
Don't Die Groups like ours get (1d3+3) vet points assigned to them when created. So 4 to 6.

So Combat Puella either become an Elite or die within a year and generally see lots of Puella come and go.
Middle Focused kinda have the middle grounds.
Don't Die Groups end up with the highest # of Skilled Vets but usually have fewer Elites and Puella total.


There we go, way less complicated and way less to keep track of.
Of course instead of just doing +1 every two months, we can do +0.5 per month instead.
 
and the beuracratic infrastructure needed to to spot those sparks in a large organization
It's not required though, is my point; high turnover will naturally winnow out the non-Elite candidates, because those will die rather than have the standout month required to "unlock" Elite potential. If they're actively looking, as we do, that number will only grow even more past ours. Unless, of course, they are deliberately snuffing out Elite candidates to preserve the existing hierarchy.
 
Well, maybe, maybe not. I'm of the opinion that the incubators really don't get any profit from the Wish itself at all, that it's just a mechanism that they exploit in order to remove a girl's soul from their body and turn them into Grief engines. Heck, it might even be a loss for them, which would explain why they bother making the meguca's body more durable: they want to protect their investment as much as they can without unduly straining the masquerade. If that's the case then an organization like the Serene is like a bonanza for them, since so many of our members have lasted for many times their projected lifetime already.

Kyuubey says they get the greatest efficiency from the greatest hope to the greatest despair. It's too their advantage to make sure a magical girl starts off as happy and hopeful as possible, so yes, they get something out of the wish.
 
OK, on food:

Since appears a lot of the girls are spending their stipend money on food, we might be able to make a decent repurposement argument. Essentially, while there is a bit of food purchased for our housing, it (presumably) has not been very focused, and each person buying their own food is very inefficient.

With 56 girls, and a theoretical 3 meals per day, that' 168 meals per day. For those living at home, they're getting breakfast and dinner at home, and probably have an allowance for lunch. Strictly speaking, they probably don't need to spend any of the stipend on food, but might use some of it for snacks and such. Still, from an upper-limit perspective, we can probably look at 84 meals per day. The orphans might even be working on ~2.5 meals per day, to stretch out their funds.

Current total stipend cost is 11,400 per month. That means that the combined food costs of homed and homeless girls cannot be higher than $4.50 per meal, right now. That's if all the girls with families are giving all their money to the others for food. $4.50 is already ridiculously low if you're not buying in bulk. Things like ramen and onigiri for cheap, simple food.

On the other hand, buying in bulk and preparing the food in-house can give them better meals for lower costs. The article @TheEyes referenced gives an (extreme) example of feeding 7 people for $3 per meal (so $0.43 per person). Even without going to that extreme, cooking experience, and access to bulk purchases due to the restaurant, should be able to get us a workable $1 per person per meal, which, if we go with the above 84 meals per day, puts the total at $2520 per month, which is $45 per person per month, overall.

Still, that's the dirt cheap option, and we can afford to maybe double that (to $100 per person per month, or $2.20 per person per meal) if we can deduct that from their current stipend. Basically, reduce their stipend from $200 back to $100 per month, in exchange for moving all food expenses into a collective pool. This would be a penalty to those who don't need the stipend for food, but would be a massive improvement for those who are still basically having to spend all their personal money on food. Essentially, they go from $0 net at the end of the month after food, to $100 net, while getting better food as well.

While there might be some grousing from those who don't actually need the money from food, that should easily be counterbalanced by those for whom this translates into actually having disposable cash. Both from an overall mechanical average, and for each individual. EG: Family Girl A and Orphan Girl B are friends. They both get $200 per month, but there's still a disparity in what that $200 actually means for each of them. Girl A might be annoyed at losing $100, but it still significantly reduces the background friction of their relative standings.

OOC, we'd pushed for a higher stipend because we didn't really have to consider food expenses (it was explicitly ignored). IC, we can spin it as pushing too fast to share the latest increases in revenue, but had been reminded that communal use of our available funds helps everyone out far more. We have several experienced cooks (thanks to the restaurant), and a lot of people who deserve healthier meals than what they can afford just spending money individually.

Mechanically, we shift $100 from stipend per month to food upkeep.

I don't want to go higher than that, because we're also having to take on additional upkeep expenses, and we only have enough income headroom for another $100 per girl per month right now.
 
I am on mobile right now which means I cannot quote, but if there are names and wish magic for the nomadic puella (or lack of magic, idk) I can probably write an omake with little trouble.

Also: I just realized, we are in a zombie survival quest. Almost everyone else is prioritizing size, resources and so on while we are looking at individual survivability and happiness. In a zombie genre we are the group that looks too good to be true and genre saavy viewers will assume we are cannibals or something.

Only we are exactly what we say we are, the people trying to do good things. Personally, I do not think that is the wrong place to be. :V
 
Maybe we should enter negotiations with the Magocracy about peacefully becoming vassals to them. It would turn them from a threat into assets, and i imagine we could get significant amounts of actual autonomy from them in return for what we bring to the table. 5 Elites, 50 Vets and a significant mundane source of legal money would probably make us one of their most important vassals, if not number 1 outright.

Then we'll likely be able to diplomance the other vassals with great ease since we are officially on the same side and will thus be able to spread our obviously superior ideas and memes to them to culturally assimilate them. Then we only need to have Mami befriend the leadership and blam, cultural victory.
 
OOC, we'd pushed for a higher stipend because we didn't really have to consider food expenses (it was explicitly ignored).
It was hard to deal with previously, but decided it could be a decent thing to introduce now. People were able to deal with it before, but I figured you were running low on things to spend your money on anyways :p

I am on mobile right now which means I cannot quote, but if there are names and wish magic for the nomadic puella (or lack of magic, idk) I can probably write an omake with little trouble.
I haven't given any yet. If you like I could generate both. The dice roll selection gave it as 3 healers and a barrier, but that could be easily changed.

. In a zombie genre we are the group that looks too good to be true and genre saavy viewers will assume we are cannibals or something.
lol
 
Net income per month based on current turn: $5480, or $99 per girl per month.

If we accept the nomads (which I assume we will), that drops by another $800 (either $200 stipend each, or $100 stipend/$100 food) + 80 (4 cellphone plans). Net: $4600, or $77 per girl per month.

Additional one-time expenses would be the general welcome package (was $200, I think? included shield + cellphone) and bikes for the new girls (assuming we want to keep 100% coverage). That's $350*4 = $1400.

New expenses would be bike + shield upkeep costs. At 5% of base costs, if base costs are $150 + $50 (because I figure it's close enough for something like this) = $200 * 5% = $10 per girl per month, which is +$600 per month.

Net income is now at $4000 per month, or $67 per girl.

$4000 per month isn't much, but it's a reasonably sustainable amount to be able to afford other stuff as needs come up.

On housing: Excluding Mami and Kyouko (living at Mami's apartment), and adding the nomads, we'll be at 58/70 capacity — 83%. Just enough that things are maybe a little bit tight, but still generally livable. We'll want to look at another expansion after we go above 60.


Anyway, now to go remind myself how my spreadsheet works.
 
@inverted_helix - What was the rotating tactics demon strength multiplier again? I thought I remembered it being 0.6 or 0.67, but I have it in the spreadsheet at 0.5. However I might have been experimenting with what effect an improvement in rotating tactics would have and not changed it back after the last time I used it.
 
Jobs (14 Vet, 4 Green, 1 Associate)
  • 1 veteran (Hainako) Translation service
  • 7 veteran + 3 green working courier business (Minimum 3 vets)
  • 1 Akeno Delivery
  • 4 Vets (Akane, Kit), 1 Green, 1 Associate Restaurant
Just a question on the totals here: The listed entries are only 13 total vets, but the overall total says 14. Last turn was 12 vets/5 greens, but one green moved to vet, so it'd be 13 vets/4 greens. However you also mentioned filling Akeno's slot with another vet that was planned for expansion.

Anyway, just want to be sure about who we have, here.
 
Just a question on the totals here: The listed entries are only 13 total vets, but the overall total says 14. Last turn was 12 vets/5 greens, but one green moved to vet, so it'd be 13 vets/4 greens. However you also mentioned filling Akeno's slot with another vet that was planned for expansion.

Anyway, just want to be sure about who we have, here.
I messed it up pretty severely.

The error you caught was from when I was shuffling your distribution of greens to account for vet promotions, I originally shuffled them one way then switched it and didn't change all the numbers it seems.

A second mistake this made me notice though. You actually reduced your workforce a little bit. Last turn was 12 vets/5 greens/1 associate, you canceled 2 odd jobs filled by greens and replaced vets with them reducing number of job slots by 2 to 16 total. You then gained 1 job via Akeno. That puts you at 17. Rather than 18. The courier business only takes 9 staff since you'd upped it to 10 last turn plan for the expansion which failed and I missed subtracting that back out.

This should be the corrected values:
Jobs (12 Vet, 4 Green, 1 Associate)
  • 1 veteran (Hainako) Translation service
  • 6 veteran + 3 green working courier business (Minimum 3 vets)
  • 1 Akeno Delivery
  • 4 Vets (Akane, Kit), 1 Green, 1 Associate Restaurant

Like I said before, been a while so accounting errors on my side are expected.
 
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Started with basic hunting configs, but then remembered the Improved Rotating Tactics research (ongoing) which penalizes our effective area.

This is what I had in my plan for research last turn:

Tandem Casting, Basic: Allows basic combined casting of the same ability to produce a more powerful result.
Cost: 2 months of: 3 Veteran Meguca, 2 Grief Cube

Improved Rotating Tactics. Applied in Hunting section.
Cost: -10% effective territory for 2 turns.

Demon Hunting Diary: Bonus to demon research rolls
Cost: 1 vet per 16 hunters (currently 15.5 hunters)


I don't actually remember if my proposal won, and it's a pain trying to locate the proposals in the thread. Most tend to be pretty similar by the end, though, so I'll assume we did all these.

The first two items are things we'd need to do for this turn as well. I'm not sure how far the third item needs to be continued (but probably still want it for at least the next turn).

I'll need to do new numbers for the Improved Rotating Tactics research, though. With the lowered territory size, I won't bother with the teleportation.

~ 1 solo elite (no armor) + 2.5 pair vets (hard leather) in the north [DS from 9.9 to 0.0]
~ 2.5 solo elite (kevlar clothes) + 7 pair vets (full kevlar) in the south [DS from 0.0 to 10.0]
~ 2.5 solo vets (full kevlar) in the rural areas [DS of 0.0, cap at 7 cubes]

harvest of 67.7 - 1 (demon forecasting) = 66.7 cubes
3.5 elites, 12 vets, for 15.5 total units

(Assuming the rural territories don't take part in the rotating tactics research, and thus don't get the -10% penalty. Reduce by 0.7 cubes if not.)

This also doesn't include harvesting from the nomadic area, which could get us a few more cubes.


We're basically at net +0 cubes this month (or worse), but next month we'll have the benefits of the IRT. Though even if we can squeeze a couple extra cubes out of hunting each month, it'll still be half a year before the investment pays off.


With the hunting corrections, basic assignments:

Support/upkeep: 10.5 vets
Hunting: 3.5 elites, 12 vets
Jobs: 12 vets, 4 greens
Ongoing Research: 4 vets


Keeping the morale items:

Sports Day (2 vets)

Grief Use Tracking/Management
Cost: 1 Veteran per 40 Meguca; Reward: Meguca upkeep GCU cost reduced 5%
- 1.5 vets


Total available for other stuff (including the 4 nomad vets):
1.5 elites
10.0 vets


If we work on Kaoru again, that's 1 elite/1 vet. That leaves us about 9 people to do "other stuff".

We'll want to work on improving diplomatic relations, particularly with area 13, to get a better handle on what's going on with Nagoya. And of course, always more research.

We're actually at a point now where it would be reasonable to start working on one of the long-term research projects. Putting 4 girls/3 cubes on improving speed or strength or durability? We're going to need that sort of edge as we start butting up against groups that have gotten larger, faster than us.
 
This is what I had in my plan for research last turn:

Tandem Casting, Basic: Allows basic combined casting of the same ability to produce a more powerful result.
Cost: 2 months of: 3 Veteran Meguca, 2 Grief Cube

Improved Rotating Tactics. Applied in Hunting section.
Cost: -10% effective territory for 2 turns.

Demon Hunting Diary: Bonus to demon research rolls
Cost: 1 vet per 16 hunters (currently 15.5 hunters)
These are what was researched.
The first two items are things we'd need to do for this turn as well. I'm not sure how far the third item needs to be continued (but probably still want it for at least the next turn).
The third is basically just a bonus to any demon research rolls the turn it's active. It's basically meant to improve your IRT rolls right now.

Assuming the rural territories don't take part in the rotating tactics research
This is fine since you aren't doing RT on them in general anyways.
 
Fair enough.

Let's go for a more simplified version then.

Let's just say, as this is turn 28, that the average experience of our Vets is a year's worth.

And we'll use every 2 months for a +1 to that 'Vet' bonus. So +6 to our Vet Rolls. Every two months that go by without us losing more than say 5-10% of our Vets, or increasing by more than 5-10% of our vets results in another +1 being added to that. To whatever Cap inverted_helix wants.

If we do get / lose any in that range, we don't earn a point for those two months. We go beyond that we start losing vet points.


So for example...

Turn 30 - We have 50 Vets. And say +5 Vet Bonus, with a +1 earned for making it to this month. So we have +6 for actions on Turn 31.
Turn 31 - We gain +1 Vets. Not past a certain % of our group, so nothing to worry about.
Turn 32 - We gain +2 Vets. Still too small, so we're fine, add another +1 to our vet bonus.
Turn 33 - We gain +5 Vets. That's 9% or so of our new current max. So this month doesn't count towards 'training' vet bonus.
Turn 34 - We gain +3 Vets. That's smaller than the amount, this month counts.
Turn 35 - We lose 1 or (get -1 Vet XD). That's smaller than the amount, this month counts another +1 to our vet bonus for a total of +7.

And we can say the max for Vets is +10.
Combat focused groups that have high turnover get assigned (1d3) vet points. So 1 to 3.
Middle focused groups get (1d3+1) So 2 to 4.
Don't Die Groups like ours get (1d3+3) vet points assigned to them when created. So 4 to 6.

So Combat Puella either become an Elite or die within a year and generally see lots of Puella come and go.
Middle Focused kinda have the middle grounds.
Don't Die Groups end up with the highest # of Skilled Vets but usually have fewer Elites and Puella total.


There we go, way less complicated and way less to keep track of.
Of course instead of just doing +1 every two months, we can do +0.5 per month instead.

Still too complicated.

Look, let's stop trying to rerig the system in our favor and play as is for now.

Maybe when we get to the point of 10 year veterans we can start considering a category between Vets and Elites or something okay. But I don't see the need for any complicated things right now. The mere fact we have such a high percentage of vets is enough of an advantage.

Maybe we should enter negotiations with the Magocracy about peacefully becoming vassals to them. It would turn them from a threat into assets, and i imagine we could get significant amounts of actual autonomy from them in return for what we bring to the table. 5 Elites, 50 Vets and a significant mundane source of legal money would probably make us one of their most important vassals, if not number 1 outright.

Then we'll likely be able to diplomance the other vassals with great ease since we are officially on the same side and will thus be able to spread our obviously superior ideas and memes to them to culturally assimilate them. Then we only need to have Mami befriend the leadership and blam, cultural victory.

We have no idea what being a vassal means. I'd rather not give up our independence unless we have to.

It was hard to deal with previously, but decided it could be a decent thing to introduce now. People were able to deal with it before, but I figured you were running low on things to spend your money on anyways :p

Saving up $500,000 is going to take forever isn't it.

I haven't given any yet. If you like I could generate both. The dice roll selection gave it as 3 healers and a barrier, but that could be easily changed.

That's a cool combination, we can work with that.

It's not required though, is my point; high turnover will naturally winnow out the non-Elite candidates, because those will die rather than have the standout month required to "unlock" Elite potential. If they're actively looking, as we do, that number will only grow even more past ours. Unless, of course, they are deliberately snuffing out Elite candidates to preserve the existing hierarchy.

No it does. I don't think you understand what we are saying, and I surely can't figure out what assumptions you are making to get your conclusion.

See, a green with elite potential is still a green. They can die from a bad roll just as easily as other greens, they are just less likely to get a bad roll. So in a culture that accepts 0 casualty risk, all those elite potentials that would have died from a bad roll while hunting would survive.

For example, consider a population of 50 girls with 5 elite potentials.

For their first year of hunting they roll:
Elite Potential 1: 90, 82, 34, 56, 78, 92, 84, 98, 76, 64, 89, 95
Elite Potential 2: 78, 87, 46, 95, 78, 91, 81, 56, 96, 67, 79, 65
Elite Potential 3: 56, 87, 68, 97, 100, 24, 67, 96, 83, 87, 99, 92
Elite Potential 4: 79, 54, 89, 92, 78, 14, 89, 76, 97, 89, 34, 91
Elite Potential 5: 91, 90, 83, 74, 92, 1, 82, 85, 56, 78, 97, 56

All five are clearly showing elite strength in their rolls. Regularly very high and above average. In a risk free environment (like the Serenes), all 5 survive. In a low risk environment (say where a roll under 10 kills you), only four survive. In a medium risk environment (rolls under 20 kill you), then only 3 survive. And in a high risk environment (say the wild where a roll under 30 kills you), only 2 survive.

This would result in teams like the Serene's having a higher Elite percentage of their population.

We've actually seen this our self. Kaoru was classified as Elite potential due to very high rolls during hunting, but one turn she rolled poorly and might have died if we weren't so risk adverse.

OOC, we'd pushed for a higher stipend because we didn't really have to consider food expenses (it was explicitly ignored). IC, we can spin it as pushing too fast to share the latest increases in revenue, but had been reminded that communal use of our available funds helps everyone out far more. We have several experienced cooks (thanks to the restaurant), and a lot of people who deserve healthier meals than what they can afford just spending money individually.

Mechanically, we shift $100 from stipend per month to food upkeep.

I don't want to go higher than that, because we're also having to take on additional upkeep expenses, and we only have enough income headroom for another $100 per girl per month right now.

I really don't feel like going back and taking money away is a good plan. I'd rather just stock the houses with food on top of what we are doing as a morale booster.

Either $60 per a girl, or $1500 per a house.

We can afford that (barely). We need to get another money maker going though.

Tandem Casting, Basic: Allows basic combined casting of the same ability to produce a more powerful result.
Cost: 2 months of: 3 Veteran Meguca, 2 Grief Cube

Improved Rotating Tactics. Applied in Hunting section.
Cost: -10% effective territory for 2 turns.

Demon Hunting Diary: Bonus to demon research rolls
Cost: 1 vet per 16 hunters (currently 15.5 hunters)


I don't actually remember if my proposal won, and it's a pain trying to locate the proposals in the thread. Most tend to be pretty similar by the end, though, so I'll assume we did all these.

I'm pretty sure that's what we did. I migth go dig up the winning plan tonight.

I'll need to do new numbers for the Improved Rotating Tactics research, though. With the lowered territory size, I won't bother with the teleportation.

~ 1 solo elite (no armor) + 2.5 pair vets (hard leather) in the north [DS from 9.9 to 0.0]
~ 2.5 solo elite (kevlar clothes) + 7 pair vets (full kevlar) in the south [DS from 0.0 to 10.0]
~ 2.5 solo vets (full kevlar) in the rural areas [DS of 0.0, cap at 7 cubes]

harvest of 67.7 - 1 (demon forecasting) = 66.7 cubes
3.5 elites, 12 vets, for 15.5 total units

I'll double check math, hopefully tonight.

Total available for other stuff (including the 4 nomad vets):
1.5 elites
10.0 vets


If we work on Kaoru again, that's 1 elite/1 vet. That leaves us about 9 people to do "other stuff".

We'll want to work on improving diplomatic relations, particularly with area 13, to get a better handle on what's going on with Nagoya. And of course, always more research.

We're actually at a point now where it would be reasonable to start working on one of the long-term research projects. Putting 4 girls/3 cubes on improving speed or strength or durability? We're going to need that sort of edge as we start butting up against groups that have gotten larger, faster than us.

Remember that we have slight swings in availability of girls, (I think we used Teleport Transport to mitigate that swing), so those 9 vets will not always be available.

That said, we definitely need to do some research on defenses against telepathy. We need to do some girl vs girl combat training, and we need to do a bunch of diplomacy. Maybe we can use the swings in available girls primarily for diplomacy?

I actually think the highest diplomacy priority is to get the collation (areas 1, 11, and 18) more friendly. We still need to make contact with area 18. They might actually be the least hostile of the three...

I'm hoping we can combine that with some money making plans.
 
Maybe we should enter negotiations with the Magocracy about peacefully becoming vassals to them. It would turn them from a threat into assets, and i imagine we could get significant amounts of actual autonomy from them in return for what we bring to the table. 5 Elites, 50 Vets and a significant mundane source of legal money would probably make us one of their most important vassals, if not number 1 outright.

Then we'll likely be able to diplomance the other vassals with great ease since we are officially on the same side and will thus be able to spread our obviously superior ideas and memes to them to culturally assimilate them. Then we only need to have Mami befriend the leadership and blam, cultural victory.
This might have been a valid tactic... before they attacked us. Since they attacked us, it would be very hard for people to accept becoming their vassals.
 
@Elder Haman The problem with your analysis is that, in those high-turnover groups, other greens are dying too, and in greater proportions than the Elite-potentials. This provides a natural winnowing, where the weaker greens die more often and the Elite potentials survive more often. It's natural selection in action, which we've short-circuited by ensuring that nobody dies, fit or not, and everyone makes it to Vet status.
 
No it does. I don't think you understand what we are saying, and I surely can't figure out what assumptions you are making to get your conclusion.

See, a green with elite potential is still a green. They can die from a bad roll just as easily as other greens, they are just less likely to get a bad roll. So in a culture that accepts 0 casualty risk, all those elite potentials that would have died from a bad roll while hunting would survive.

For example, consider a population of 50 girls with 5 elite potentials.

For their first year of hunting they roll:
Elite Potential 1: 90, 82, 34, 56, 78, 92, 84, 98, 76, 64, 89, 95
Elite Potential 2: 78, 87, 46, 95, 78, 91, 81, 56, 96, 67, 79, 65
Elite Potential 3: 56, 87, 68, 97, 100, 24, 67, 96, 83, 87, 99, 92
Elite Potential 4: 79, 54, 89, 92, 78, 14, 89, 76, 97, 89, 34, 91
Elite Potential 5: 91, 90, 83, 74, 92, 1, 82, 85, 56, 78, 97, 56

All five are clearly showing elite strength in their rolls. Regularly very high and above average. In a risk free environment (like the Serenes), all 5 survive. In a low risk environment (say where a roll under 10 kills you), only four survive. In a medium risk environment (rolls under 20 kill you), then only 3 survive. And in a high risk environment (say the wild where a roll under 30 kills you), only 2 survive.

This would result in teams like the Serene's having a higher Elite percentage of their population.
Have to agree with @TheEyes on this one. Illustrating with an example towards the extreme other end.

Suppose we have a group with 100 meguca (for easy units) running at morale 2 and 20% risk of death from hunting per month.

If they cap cubes to prevent grief spiral deaths at 2 per spiral, that means an average of 19 should die from grief spirals over the year.

They can use simplistic pack hunting and have 37 hunters (mix of vets and greens) harvest 100 cubes per month from a size 100 territory (keeping DS the same). A 20% death rate means 7 of them die each month, for an extra 84 deaths per year. Just going for a high churn rate here.

Assuming these are all replaced with new recruits, 100 girls are alive out of 203 that passed through the group each year. Roughly a 50% overall survival rate. However that also means the group has tested twice as many girls for elite potential, picking from a total of 10 instead of just 5 if there was no turnover.

If the elite potentials have a lower overall death rate than the average girl, then more than 50% of those total 10 should survive. That means at least 6 elites from that overall group, vs a max of 5 from a group with no turnover.

If the elite potentials simply had a flat 10% reduction in their death rates during hunting, then if you targeted a 10% general risk level (instead of the 20% above), pretty much all the elites should survive (aside from maybe a grief spiral), while only 30% of the non-elites should survive. Overall, about 60% of all members of the group would survive the year, and elites should be at 70%-80%. However there would only be 8 theoretical elite potentials out of the ~160 members, instead of 10 out of 200. 70%-80% of that would still end up being about 6 elite potentials, same as the higher turnover.

Basically, at no turnover, you have 5 potentials per 100. With moderate turnover, you'll probably pull in 6 elite potentials. As turnover continues to increase, the benefit starts dropping again, as they're dropping too fast for the averages to overcome the death rates.

Regardless, it's a gain (if slight), and not such a significant loss as you imply.

Not that I'm arguing a change in strategy. The no-turnover strategy seems like it would have better overall strength (most units are good, some are very good), but the higher turnover strategy probably has higher spikes of strength (most units are average, but there's a decent block of very good to excellent fighters).
 
OK, various diplomacy options to consider...

Areas 1/11/18(?) — A coalition set up to counter our expansion. We're at least back on neutral terms with them, rather than the disastrously bad terms we started on. A Safe Passage agreement has been made.

I don't think it'd be a good idea to push much faster on them just yet. Give another turn or two to let things continue to settle, and then we can maybe move on to Business is Business.

Letting them have time trying to work on being an actual organization (of sorts) may also give them a better appreciation of a more organized structure.

The areas they cover can probably support 30 to 40 meguca. (Confirmed 9 in area 11; area 1 is smaller, but higher density; and area 18 is larger.) That's a large enough group that a three-way coalition will be a bit difficult to manage, particularly if we can reduce our profile as a common threat. Plus, since it's a three-way coalition, there's going to be a lot of redundancy across their groups, and they won't be able to manage the economies of scale quite as well. If we can actually show them how well we're doing, that should be a pretty strong foothold on the road to getting them to join.

Finally, I don't actually want to expand our businesses too much more right now. We can support what we have, and we need those meguca-months on research now.

Overall: Stay friendly, but don't need to take action just yet.


Areas 2/3/4 — Nothing much here. Got rejected by 3 and 4 a couple turns ago, and haven't spoken to area 2 since turn 12. Only a handful of meguca in these areas anyway. Might reach out to area 2 just to renew things there.

Areas 10/17 — Similar. Area 10 is friendly with us, with just 3 greens there. No contact with 17 yet, but from its size is probably another small group of 3-5 girls. Opening relations with them should not be difficult.


Areas 13/14 — If area 13 is a vassal of Nagoya, area 14 almost certainly is as well. We've had no official contact with 14. However they're on the fringes of Nagoya's territory.

Since they're vassal states, each still runs basically independently of the parent state and other vassal states, but they'll be paying tribute to the overlord, probably in a general tax on grief cubes.

This actually has an interesting effect. If we were taxed, say, 10% of our basic capacity, that'd be 5-6 cubes per month. It would be doable, but not pleasant. Without rotating tactics, you'd have to ensure your population remained below the territory capacity.

However for the overlord with a dozen vassal states, each paying 1-3 cubes per month (can't let any of them get too large), that creates a massive surplus in cube supply for the 'core' territory. They could afford to spend less time hunting, and a lot more on research. Also, less time on hunting means less overhunting, which means Nagoya is probably a lot safer (in terms of class 3 demons) than other cities of similar size.

It would even be an incentive to become part of such a group, if you know your territory defenses are going to be supported by a highly skilled core group, and maybe even the possibility of being promoted from an outlying territory leader to being part of one of those core groups.

Risk of death in the core group would be low, while risk of death in the vassal territories would probably be low-to-average, depending on how much of the tech development was shared.

Basically, if the Nagoya group is doing a decent job with their setup, we would have a very hard time swaying vassal states to our side.

We might be able to get some decent information trade with area 13 by offering them cubes to pay their vassal state fee. I'd want to at least hold off til we get our territory back up to full size, though.


We definitely want to get the Coalition group more friendly with our side, though, so there's no risk of the Nagoya group taking them over.



So, potential diplomacy schedule:
Area 2: Open relations (1)
Area 17: Open relations (1)
Area 10: Safe passage (2) (probably not worthwhile, but should be willing to accept from them if they ask)

Another idea: Get a more solid idea of the Tokyo situation from our new nomad recruits, and use that in trade with area 13 for more detail on the Nagoya side of things.

Overall, can probably do with about 3 meguca on diplomacy for this turn, though we have room to increase beyond that.

With the previous allocation estimates, will probably have around 6 meguca free for other projects. Most likely want to put a fair bit of that in research (unless someone has better ideas).

On the hunting swing issue: Next turn, with improved rotating tactics in place, we should be able to manage with 19 meguca units (including teleportation), compared with 15.5 this turn. So we'll lose 3.5 units to hunting, but we'll also be done with the research projects we started in this last turn, which will free up 4 vets. So, total units available for "other" stuff should be about the same next turn as this turn, and allocating a new research project this turn out of that expected pool shouldn't be problematic.
 
After recruiting the 4 nomadic veterans, we should also be able to (unoficially) claim the nomadic area and maybe do a bit of scouting around it to figure out what other territories border it.
Other than the city north of it, it seems like everything is rural or nomadic around it. Probably worth at least scouting the city north of Nomad/Area 17, though.
 
Areas 1/11/18(?) — A coalition set up to counter our expansion. We're at least back on neutral terms with them, rather than the disastrously bad terms we started on. A Safe Passage agreement has been made.

I don't think it'd be a good idea to push much faster on them just yet. Give another turn or two to let things continue to settle, and then we can maybe move on to Business is Business.

Letting them have time trying to work on being an actual organization (of sorts) may also give them a better appreciation of a more organized structure.

Hmm... "Positive Daily Contact" is a common phrase to describe how to politic effectively.

That's a little hard to achieve without more granularity than monthly plans, but still I think no contact is probably a mistake. (Every time we leave other areas alone, our reputation seems to get worse).

However, I would agree that we probably want a light touch this month.

So maybe this month we establish a contact with Area 18, and for area 11/1 we talk to them about Nayoga and the danger that over hunting will attract an attack from them. Tell them that we were attacked from ambush, and that two of our girls were kidnapped, but that we managed to negotiate their release, and get an acknowledgement to accept our hunting practices. Ask them to tell us if there are any overhunting issues, and offer to mediate between them and Nayoga?

Not sure about that last line, but the rest I think we should certainly do. Suddenly instead of the big scary dog next door that they are afraid of, we are the big scary dog next door that is keeping the even scarier wolf in the woods away from them.

Then next month we can talk to them about business is business.

Finally, I don't actually want to expand our businesses too much more right now. We can support what we have, and we need those meguca-months on research now.

Actually, my thought is that with these smaller groups we might be able to leverage their manpower for our businesses. Basically we extend our courier business into their territory, providing the bikes, connections, capital, and reputation to gain customers. We expect to earn $1500 per a courier after costs. So we then offer to hire their girls at $1200 a month (maybe with a $50 raise every three months for a year). That's better than the average of $1000 a month they can expect from random jobs, but we still get a profit too despite not having to dedicate a lot of girls to it, (probably will need at least one per an area to give guidance to the new girls).

More important, it gets us positive daily contact between our girls and their girls. Eventually it becomes a defacto alliance based on a "special relationship."

Then we just have to wait for a crisis to hit (and one always hits magical girls), and at that point suggest a more formal alliance.

Areas 2/3/4 — Nothing much here. Got rejected by 3 and 4 a couple turns ago, and haven't spoken to area 2 since turn 12. Only a handful of meguca in these areas anyway. Might reach out to area 2 just to renew things there.

Yeah, might as well try to bring these into the fold, but low priority.

Areas 10/17 — Similar. Area 10 is friendly with us, with just 3 greens there. No contact with 17 yet, but from its size is probably another small group of 3-5 girls. Opening relations with them should not be difficult.

Yes, we should probably try to expand as close to the Tokyo containment field as is safe. With Tokyo in disarray this means that we likely won't run into another large organization in this area.

Areas 13/14 — If area 13 is a vassal of Nagoya, area 14 almost certainly is as well. We've had no official contact with 14. However they're on the fringes of Nagoya's territory.

We should certainly check out to see what 14 thinks. They might have a different perspective than 13. I thought it interesting that 13 seem to feel quite a bit of distance between them and Nagoya. Are they a vassal of a vassal?

Since they're vassal states, each still runs basically independently of the parent state and other vassal states, but they'll be paying tribute to the overlord, probably in a general tax on grief cubes.

This actually has an interesting effect. If we were taxed, say, 10% of our basic capacity, that'd be 5-6 cubes per month. It would be doable, but not pleasant. Without rotating tactics, you'd have to ensure your population remained below the territory capacity.

I think that you are making too many assumptions about how vassals will work. Paying tribute in grief cubes is an extremely high cost action, and likely to build a lot of resentment. How do you keep your population below territory capacity? Incubators seem to randomly recruit girls even when an area is full. We are mainly getting away with it because Kyouko drove a bunch of girls out of her territory, and because rotating tactics allows safe overhunting.

Vassalship might be something as basic as being required to provide girls for large actions. Something closer to the feudal relationships. Maybe even allowing the core group to take a girl who has valuable skills/abilities and add her to the core group.

We need more information, and we need to be cautious in how we collect it.

So, potential diplomacy schedule:
Area 2: Open relations (1)
Area 17: Open relations (1)
Area 10: Safe passage (2) (probably not worthwhile, but should be willing to accept from them if they ask)

I think something more like:

Area 18: Open Relations (1)
Area 1, 11, 18: Aid, Information: On Nagoya/Overhunting Risks (0)
Area 14: Open Relations (1)
Area 17: Open Relations (1)

Another idea: Get a more solid idea of the Tokyo situation from our new nomad recruits, and use that in trade with area 13 for more detail on the Nagoya side of things.

If we do this, then I think that we ought to trade directly with Nagoya, not area 13.

Overall, can probably do with about 3 meguca on diplomacy for this turn, though we have room to increase beyond that.

With the previous allocation estimates, will probably have around 6 meguca free for other projects. Most likely want to put a fair bit of that in research (unless someone has better ideas).

On the hunting swing issue: Next turn, with improved rotating tactics in place, we should be able to manage with 19 meguca units (including teleportation), compared with 15.5 this turn. So we'll lose 3.5 units to hunting, but we'll also be done with the research projects we started in this last turn, which will free up 4 vets. So, total units available for "other" stuff should be about the same next turn as this turn, and allocating a new research project this turn out of that expected pool shouldn't be problematic.

So I think we absolutely have to have Research: Telepathic Defenses (Determine how to protect your mind against telepathy) @inverted_helix How much will it cost to do this? Obviously Taura, probably plus 1 more vet? The goal is to figure something out for a training program.

I think we also need to do Training: Advanced Detection. This costs us in more people hunting right? To make up for the loss of the dispatch bonus? But this is important because we need our clairvoyants free for countering meguca incursions, and not all locked up on dispatch. Rough estimate is 2 vets, maybe 2.5 vets?

So at that point we don't have room for the Improved Speed (which is the obvious one to pick).

However, I do think that we ought to have a Training: Magical Girl Combat which would be to improve our combat stats vs other magical girls. Maybe another 2 Vets for that? @Chandagnac What do you say the benefits and costs would be?
 
Hmm... "Positive Daily Contact" is a common phrase to describe how to politic effectively.

That's a little hard to achieve without more granularity than monthly plans, but still I think no contact is probably a mistake. (Every time we leave other areas alone, our reputation seems to get worse).
Actually, that might be a nice full-time position to set up. Someone whose job is simply to keep in touch with all the areas we've opened relations with. Check in, see how things are doing, 'news' (gossip) about anything going on, see if any groups have interest in plans that would require formal meetings (eg: Safe Passage, Business is Business, etc).

Doesn't have to be major, but allows everyone to have a better idea of what's going on around them, instead of a wall of silence that we occasionally poke spotlights into. Should help keep a better overall relationship with all our neighbors.

A good gossip mill might also get us better inroads on things like business partnerships (and thus, Business is Business expansions), as people see what opportunities there are for dealing with other known magical girls, rather than dancing around the masquerade.
 
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