Eternal_0bserver
(Unverified Bookworm)
- Location
- Earth, Northern Europe
In general, I think we should reserve money for specific projects and use the rest to pay off loans.
You're the Queen - Now What? [CK2ish Character-Focused Quest]
- Thread starter Kylia Quilor
- Start date
- Mature Fantasy
I would think it's the same post and therefore the same calculation.
@Kylia Quilor Can you please clarify this so we don't get the wrong idea?
Kylia Quilor
I Have Two Moods, and Bitter is One of Them.
- Location
- Hiding in the corner of your vision.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
*Technically* it comes it in that order, but practically, it's all simultaneous. On the other hand, I would not encourage you to approve spending for more than you have in the treasury on the assumption you'll have the income as a general habit. Random events or other maluses to income can happ
Thanks, so we should see it more as an emergency reserve that we should always keep.
In that case, I think 20 makes sense. It's good that we were able to clarify that.
Edit: From here on out, my logic is flawed due to a misinterpretation in terms of what the treasury means for our next move.
In that case, I think 20 makes sense. It's good that we were able to clarify that.
Edit: From here on out, my logic is flawed due to a misinterpretation in terms of what the treasury means for our next move.
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I'll kick off the voting, then.
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
-[X] Pay 85 Dureks to Geltric Bank
-[X] Pay 100 Dureks to Feltrini Bank
The first example plan is elegant in its simplicity, and if we look at this as a math problem it's the objective solution. If these loans were negotiated with no individual minimum payment per turn, we have no reason to go above and beyond our agreement. If we use the first turn as an example, the 36 dureks remaining in the treasury will give us plenty of spending money on Turn 2.
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
-[X] Pay 85 Dureks to Geltric Bank
-[X] Pay 100 Dureks to Feltrini Bank
The first example plan is elegant in its simplicity, and if we look at this as a math problem it's the objective solution. If these loans were negotiated with no individual minimum payment per turn, we have no reason to go above and beyond our agreement. If we use the first turn as an example, the 36 dureks remaining in the treasury will give us plenty of spending money on Turn 2.
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
-[X] Pay 85 Dureks to Geltric Bank
-[X] Pay 100 Dureks to Feltrini Bank
My only worry is whether or not 36 Dureks is actually a lot of spending money, but frankly this is probably the best plan anyways. If it's still too much money spent at once (the only possible flaw) we'll be able to devise a better idea of where our reserve money should be at any given turn, and if not, then everything's gravy.
-[X] Pay 85 Dureks to Geltric Bank
-[X] Pay 100 Dureks to Feltrini Bank
My only worry is whether or not 36 Dureks is actually a lot of spending money, but frankly this is probably the best plan anyways. If it's still too much money spent at once (the only possible flaw) we'll be able to devise a better idea of where our reserve money should be at any given turn, and if not, then everything's gravy.
We've already discovered that it doesn't work that way.
There's no reason why we should keep 36, it's an arbitrary number that just comes from being "left over."
It would be better if we had consistency in this number, just as a reserve.
It just has to fulfill the emergency function. Since we don't know the extent of this risk every turn, it makes no sense to fluctuate the number.
[X] Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (201 Dureks)
-[X] Pay 16 Dureks to the Royal Bank of Zedarsh
-[X] Pay 85 Dureks to Geltric Bank
-[X] Pay 100 Dureks to Feltrini Bank
This means we have 20 as a reserve and that is the total we should keep in other turns.
Edit: Consistency is important in accounting and risk management.
("elegant in its simplicity" is not a phrase I would have heard from my professors on the matter, we need a different mindset here)
Edit2: I still stand by the fact that 36 is an arbitrary number, but the part about the reserve is flawed due to my misinterpretation.
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- Location
- Denmark
Well, we should try to determine, how much money we are likely to spend on turn 2. I think that we might spend 5 Dureks on an external spy network or perhaps on an internal spy network.
Then we likely will have to spend money on rebuilding the roads. We have yet to see the price tag for that, but when we look on prices for the repairing war damage, then 10 Dureks seems like a reasonable guess.
The third action, that I had forgotten about, is using the Keeper of the Royal Vaults to mint more money to help deal with the currency contraction, where we are allowed to spend up to 15 Dureks, which I think might be worth it, since it would help improve our economy, while also helping strengthen our position as the new monarch.
This would mean, that we could end up having to spend 30 Dureks on actions on turn 2, which is higher than what I thought, when I suggested a buffer of 20 Dureks.
I don't think it makes sense to completely tie this to a new plan and as I said, it's only for emergencies.
Normally we have income and new expenses at the same moment.
It makes sense to cover this partially but not completely.
For example, banks always have money available when people want to withdraw something, but never so much that all people can get their money at the same time.
If we think about this logic further, we also had to hold back so much to be able to cover all regular expenses, which is simply not possible.
Edit:
Risk management is also about the fact that avoiding risks entails opportunity costs.
We can't and shouldn't go out of our way to insure everything; it's better to take a reasonable amount that we can hold on to in the future.
Edit2: My logic was really flawed here in terms of what the treasury means for our next move. (is most affected by my misinterpretation)
Normally we have income and new expenses at the same moment.
It makes sense to cover this partially but not completely.
For example, banks always have money available when people want to withdraw something, but never so much that all people can get their money at the same time.
If we think about this logic further, we also had to hold back so much to be able to cover all regular expenses, which is simply not possible.
Edit:
Risk management is also about the fact that avoiding risks entails opportunity costs.
We can't and shouldn't go out of our way to insure everything; it's better to take a reasonable amount that we can hold on to in the future.
Edit2: My logic was really flawed here in terms of what the treasury means for our next move. (is most affected by my misinterpretation)
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
Eternal_0bserver
(Unverified Bookworm)
- Location
- Earth, Northern Europe
[X] Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (201 Dureks)
Reducing expenses also increases income. Let's do our best to get rid of the debts that are dragging us down.
Reducing expenses also increases income. Let's do our best to get rid of the debts that are dragging us down.
Honestly, I came out swinging because of the misunderstandings and interest rate talk, not wanting to see a plan gain traction where we put a little bit towards everything. It's definitely valid to argue we need less of a cushion. I just like the two line plan, and think we might be spending a bit on road stuff this turn. I don't feel strongly about one of these plans over the other.
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That's understandable and I think it's very important that we take interest into account when making our repayments.
I also think it's bad if we approach this matter without thinking about interest, its a good motivation to want to prevent that.
My only concern was that the amount we have to pay off the debt and the amount of the 2 loans have nothing to do with each other.
So the 36 we have left are arbitrary and we shouldn't leave it that way.
It's better if we have a constant reserve and could also make future votes on the matter easier if we have a consensus on this.
I consider 20 to be enough to cover risks that may arise in interludes.
Edit: My logic was flawed in terms of what the treasury means for our next move.
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- Location
- Denmark
The issue is that it will take time for our income to be big enough to both handle our debt and to pay for expensive actions, so if we only have 20 Dureks in the treasury, there is likely to be a limit to how much we can spend next turn.
I tried to figure out, how our debt and interest is likely to look, depending on, which plan wins.
Outstanding Debts if Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini wins:
Previous Debts Owed By Syrokis: 358.5 Dureks (12% Monthly Interest) (43 Dureks)
Owed to the Axecavern Bank (Lortan Dwarves): 165 Dureks (10% Interest) (16.5 Dureks)
Owed to the Redhammer Bank (Lortan Dwarves): 83.25 Dureks (11% Interest) (9.25 Dureks)
Owed to the Royal Bank of Zedarsh (Zedarsh): 94 Dureks (12% Interest) (11.25 Dureks)
Owed to Assorted Individual Wealthy Merchants/Etc based in Eaglecrest, Port Lest and Westcrown: 81 Dureks (8% Interest) (6.5 Dureks)
Owed to Assorted Individual Weathy Merchants Based in Zedarsh or Selissa: 111 Dureks (11% Interest) (12.25 Dureks)
Interest to be payed: 98.75 Dureks
Outstanding Debts if Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini wins:
Previous Debts Owed By Syrokis: 358.5 Dureks (12% Monthly Interest) (43 Dureks)
Owed to the Axecavern Bank (Lortan Dwarves): 165 Dureks (10% Interest) (16.5 Dureks)
Owed to the Redhammer Bank (Lortan Dwarves): 83.25 Dureks (11% Interest) (9.25 Dureks)
Owed to the Royal Bank of Zedarsh (Zedarsh): 112 Dureks (12% Interest) (13.5 Dureks)
Owed to Assorted Individual Wealthy Merchants/Etc based in Eaglecrest, Port Lest and Westcrown: 81 Dureks (8% Interest) (6.5 Dureks)
Owed to Assorted Individual Weathy Merchants Based in Zedarsh or Selissa: 111 Dureks (11% Interest) (12.25 Dureks)
Interest to be payed: 101 Dureks
So, Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini will lead to a lower interest rate of about 2.25 Dureks next turn and a debt there is 18 Dureks lower, that it would otherwise be.
You are correct, if we want to address all of these points that you have described then we would have to plan beyond the treasury, which according to GM is not ideal.
I think that I did not interpret GM's clarification that way and my reasoning was flawed.
Ideally, the amount in our treasury should be the limit to our spending.
I just don't know whether we really want to tackle all of these things straight away in the next turn and whether the things really cost that much. Maybe a narrower limit wouldn't be the worst? Reducing debt and thus reducing interest is a good option for our situation.
But everyone who votes should know that this vote likely places limits on the Turn 2 plan.
- Pronouns
- They
Fine with either plan winning so I guess I'll just approval vote both lol
[X] Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (201 Dureks)
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
[X] Plan: Start repaying Zedarsh and wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (201 Dureks)
[X] Plan: Wipeout Geltric & Feltrini (185 Dureks)
- Location
- Denmark
I want to try and start considering what might be a good plan for turn 2, though first I want to note the three kingdom-wide modifiers, that we have at the moment. The first one is, that we have ruined roads, which we will have to rebuild. The second modifier is, that we are having a currency contraction, which will need us to increase the money supply to deal with. The third modifier is economic dislocation, which I am unsure, if we can do anything about, but wait for things to improve on its own.
Now, let us try to go though what actions, that I think might be good choich for turn 2.
If doing tax assessments, then I would likely prefer Town Trade Revenue and Port Lest wealth tax.
We will hopefully be able to negotiate lower interest rates after we have gotten married.
I have tried to assemble a plan based on my current thoughts on, what actions we should pick for turn 2, though I will have to wait to actual finish it, when we actual comes to turn 2 and see the actions available to us.
[] Plan: Prototype
-[ ][TAX ASSESSMENTS] Eaglecrest Trade Fees
-[ ][TAX ASSESSMENTS] Lordship Land Tax Phase 2 (Of 2)
-[ ][CORRESPONDENCE] Personally Oversee Tax Assessments (Up to 2 more Tax Assessments Will be Finished This Turn) (Base Chance 50% + Stewardship + 1/2 Learning)*
--[ ] Priority: Town Trade Revenue Phase 1 (Of 2)
--[ ] Secondary: Port Lest 4% Wealth Tax
-[ ][CORRESPONDENCE] Gather Reports On Banditry (Improves Base Chance of future Anti-Banditry Tasks) (Base Chance 65% + Stewardship)
-[ ][ROYAL VAULTS] Acquire Raw Materials To Mint New Gold and Silver Coins (Progress towards resolving Currency Contraction, Advances Royal Propaganda) (No Roll Required)
--[ ] Spend 5 Dureks
--[ ] Spend 10 Dureks
--[ ] Spend 15 Dureks
-[ ][HIGH MARSHALL] Inspect the Officer Corps (Success will locate and purge incompetent, corrupt or disloyal officers. Runs the risk of lowering army morale and organization on Weak Success or failure) (Base Chance 48% + Martial + Diplomacy)*
-[ ][SECRETS] Rebuild Internal Spy Network (Phase 1 of ?) (No roll required. Each phase opens more [SECRETS] options down the line and improves chances of success of internal spy operations, as well as giving increased chance for intelligence to be 'passively' received)
--[ ]Provide Funds to Speed up/Improve Process. Write-in amount.
-[ ][SECRETS] Rebuild an External Spy Network (Costs 5 Dureks) (Provides passive intelligence and improves chances of spy operations inside a given state)
--[ ] In Morvak (Base Chance: 60% + Intrigue)*
--[ ] In the Varaday Republic (Base Chance: 43% + Intrigue)
-[ ][SHERIFFS AND REEVES] Rebuild Roads?
-[ ][ENVOYS] Find Marriage Candidates?
-[ ][JUSTICE] ?
-[ ][QUEEN] Use divination to get an idea of what nearby realms might have potentially interested candidates for marriage (Base Chance: 60% + Magic)*
-[ ][QUEEN] Rule on the dispute over who gets the County of Aloce (Scene & Followup Vote)
-[ ][QUEEN] Negotiate with the Estates to rationalize some incoherent and outdated laws regarding fishing, mining and logging rights. (Base Chance: 53% + Diplomacy + Stewardship)
Now, let us try to go though what actions, that I think might be good choich for turn 2.
When it comes to tax assessments, then doing phase 2 of lordship land tax and Eaglecrest trade fees, seems like good choices to me.
Of the actions available to the Keeper of Correspondence, I think overseeing tax assessments and gathering reports on banditry are the two most interesting actions. Since he had an action to gather reports on the roads, then he might gain actions to help rebuild the roads, that might be interesting.
If doing tax assessments, then I would likely prefer Town Trade Revenue and Port Lest wealth tax.
Of the actions available to the Keeper of the Royal Vaults, then the only action, that I find interesting is the action to acquire raw materials to mint new coins, since the highest interest rate we will have on a loan is 12%, so we could at most make a saving of 3 Dureks from a bridge loan.
We will hopefully be able to negotiate lower interest rates after we have gotten married.
Of the actions available to the High Marshall on turn 1, then I prefer inspecting the officer corps, but we could also try to survey the defenses at Thornmarch.
Of the actions available to the Keeper of Secrets on turn 1, then I would really like to claw back the money in Varaday Banks, but with the lower chance of success, then I would like to have a spy network in Varaday first. Building a spy network either in Morvak or internal would also be decent ideas.
Of the actions available to the Keeper of the Sheriffs and Reeves on turn 1, then either repairing war damage or appointing trustworthy people seems like decent action, but we will be getting actions to rebuild roads, that I would prefer to do.
We will see, what actions our Keeper of envoys and our Keeper of Justice will have available, but we will likely use the Keeper of Envoys to find good marriage candidates.
Of the actions available to our Queen on turn 1, then I think there is three interesting actions, the first action being us using divination to find potentially interested candidates for marriage, while the second action would be ruling on the County of Aloce, while the third action might be to rationalize laws. At some point, I also think, it would be interesting to start doing social actions.
I have tried to assemble a plan based on my current thoughts on, what actions we should pick for turn 2, though I will have to wait to actual finish it, when we actual comes to turn 2 and see the actions available to us.
[] Plan: Prototype
-[ ][TAX ASSESSMENTS] Eaglecrest Trade Fees
-[ ][TAX ASSESSMENTS] Lordship Land Tax Phase 2 (Of 2)
-[ ][CORRESPONDENCE] Personally Oversee Tax Assessments (Up to 2 more Tax Assessments Will be Finished This Turn) (Base Chance 50% + Stewardship + 1/2 Learning)*
--[ ] Priority: Town Trade Revenue Phase 1 (Of 2)
--[ ] Secondary: Port Lest 4% Wealth Tax
-[ ][CORRESPONDENCE] Gather Reports On Banditry (Improves Base Chance of future Anti-Banditry Tasks) (Base Chance 65% + Stewardship)
-[ ][ROYAL VAULTS] Acquire Raw Materials To Mint New Gold and Silver Coins (Progress towards resolving Currency Contraction, Advances Royal Propaganda) (No Roll Required)
--[ ] Spend 5 Dureks
--[ ] Spend 10 Dureks
--[ ] Spend 15 Dureks
-[ ][HIGH MARSHALL] Inspect the Officer Corps (Success will locate and purge incompetent, corrupt or disloyal officers. Runs the risk of lowering army morale and organization on Weak Success or failure) (Base Chance 48% + Martial + Diplomacy)*
-[ ][SECRETS] Rebuild Internal Spy Network (Phase 1 of ?) (No roll required. Each phase opens more [SECRETS] options down the line and improves chances of success of internal spy operations, as well as giving increased chance for intelligence to be 'passively' received)
--[ ]Provide Funds to Speed up/Improve Process. Write-in amount.
-[ ][SECRETS] Rebuild an External Spy Network (Costs 5 Dureks) (Provides passive intelligence and improves chances of spy operations inside a given state)
--[ ] In Morvak (Base Chance: 60% + Intrigue)*
--[ ] In the Varaday Republic (Base Chance: 43% + Intrigue)
-[ ][SHERIFFS AND REEVES] Rebuild Roads?
-[ ][ENVOYS] Find Marriage Candidates?
-[ ][JUSTICE] ?
-[ ][QUEEN] Use divination to get an idea of what nearby realms might have potentially interested candidates for marriage (Base Chance: 60% + Magic)*
-[ ][QUEEN] Rule on the dispute over who gets the County of Aloce (Scene & Followup Vote)
-[ ][QUEEN] Negotiate with the Estates to rationalize some incoherent and outdated laws regarding fishing, mining and logging rights. (Base Chance: 53% + Diplomacy + Stewardship)
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I agree.
Yeah, I suspect we should wait on declaring 'best actions' until we see what Rykall has to work with next turn.
Indeed. More progress towards fixing that and the roads, plus time, will help fix economic dislocation.
Inspect the Officer Corps is a MUST. We cannot afford any useless or untrustworthy figures in the Royal Army after what Halrun has been through.
Try of far greater importance. The security of the nation is paramount. Internal spy network or Morvak, no exceptions.
We can let another month or two ride without additional employees. We need the roads rebuilt ASAP. It's not just a matter of commerce, but logistics if, goodness forbid, Morvak or other nations decide to invade.
Social actions can wait at least one more month. And much as it appeals to me, fixing the laws can probably wait. A County-level succession dispute is a matter of major political weight and importance, so we'll want to settle it swiftly. And given our own necessary succession responsibilities, the sooner we start looking at suitors, the better.
